http://forums.bharat-rakshak.com/viewto ... 9#p1700049
Ramana wrote:
Goals and Objectives of the three players:
US wants to be the pre-eminent power for ever and ever. Inherit the mantle of British Empire for at least next five hundred years-Churchill goal thwarted by WWII.
China wants to dislodge the US and has world beating ambition.
India wants economic prosperity and security for its citizens. No world beating ambition.
Constraints:
US:
- US is economically tied to China while being the predominant military, political and economic power.
- Because of its economic dependence, US doesn't want India to be a real threat to China.
-The US financial meltdown has led to severe erosion of economic power. The recovery is partial and only in the banking sector with massive infusion of Federal debt. China holds quite a large amount of that debt.
-Politically US is fractured with lack of clarity in foreign affairs from Eastern Europe to North Africa to West Asia and Af-Pak.
-US does not trust India and seeks to impose technological constraints perpetually. The constraint is lifted only if India already develops the technology to kill local initiative.
- US has a divided house with President and Congress of different parties. The Senate could also slip away in 2014 elections. This is due to the stasis at Main Street level while Wall Street is a roaring success. So six years of lost progress for Main Street drives the change.
- Obama -2 is like UPA-2 to put it in simple terms. Every aspect is like MMS's hand running the US.
China:
- Chinese economy is distorted with export oriented capacity.
- Chinese local consumption is slow to build up
- China military is modernizing at slow pace and not at same rate as political and economy are moving.
-Sinkiang- Uighur are becoming a problem with Islamic fundamentalism driving nationalist ambitions.
-Political reforms are needed to transform China from Communist ideology to reflect reality. Tian Mein Square protests and crackdown were a bow-shot.
India:
- Indian economy and society is just recovering from ten years of stasis with UPA inaction in every sphere of activity.
- Indian military modernization has akin a ten year checked out system.
- Indian media and opinion makers are not in sync with public mood and political reality. They are still acting as UPA is still a force to reckon with.
-Wiki and Snowden have shown the deep penetration of the political and media systems in India.
-India needs tot create new friends at least less enemies in the neighborhood and then the outer ring.
- Indian economy needs high technology in manufacturing machines, cyber IT and ports infrastructure. All this needs capital and technology inputs.
We can think of solutions later to achieve the goals.
----BTW fromm CUB:
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Devesh wrote:
one astute point by Ramana ji above is that US doesn't want any serious threats to China because of their heavy investments there.
this is undoubtedly true. even tech/logistics businesses in the $100-$500 mil. range now have serious investments in PRC. also, per the volume/revenues of their offices in China, American Business considers China to be the golden-egg-laying-goose of the future.
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CRamS questioned:
DeveshJi, you and RamanaGaru articulate the PRC US symbiotic relationship well, but what puzzles me is the public demonization of PRC by US. And make no mistake, this has a visible effect on aam junta, they do consider PRC as a "threat". What is Uncle's game here? Why the public brouhaha to the extent that his people are brainwashed into thinking PRC is enemy when in fact PRC is a bed mate?
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Ramana answered:
How long have you been in US! The maxim is "go by what they do than by what they say!"
And read books on Nixon where he clearly sates why he opened up to China. Essentially Vietnam bankrupted the US economically (they did not rise taxes to fund the war), morally as it was the worng war, and socially as people lost trust in leaders. So he had to come to terms with FSU and split the PRC away from FSU. he offered them a way ot of the poverty by creating an opening which Mao did not take but Deng did after facing the Tien An Mein Square moment of truth. They literally feared a Caucescu moment for the leaders.
Despite all the hype, US was and is playing a balance of power strategy and not the strategy of a great power. A great power will do what it wants to and not say one thing and do another thing. Read Paul Kennedy to get more gnan.
US public needs an enemy to be motivated or else they will take it easy.
Its a Dar ul Harb economy.
even in niche industrial tech (non-high volume) companies, orders directly from top management are that "new expansion" and "emerging markets" is essentially about PRC. and more often that not, we are told openly not to 'divert' resources that go into expansion-related activities in PRC.
make absolutely no mistake about it: PRC has positioned itself very well in the American commercial-instinct-driven value hierarchy.
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Singha wrote :
Despite India making no effort to get better and more tanks, TSP is being given 1000s of Hellfires and tows as a xbm
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http://forums.bharat-rakshak.com/viewto ... 0#p1417266
Philip wrote:
We will have drone strikes planned against us and the US and Pak might even gang up in a joint op to liberate Kashmir.
Rememebr,U heard it from moi first!
svinayak wrote :
Apart from everything else this part may be true. They had a plan for joint invasion which was floating in the internet in the early 90s. This was a cold war plan and they could revive it
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