India Nuclear News & Discussion - 31 Aug 2007

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milindc
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Post by milindc »

Shankar wrote:with all due respect to all of Indias top nuclear scientists who till a year back was so mcuh against the deal have sudden;ly turned around and now support the deal -why?
B'cos every patriotic Indian knows that if left is opposing the deal tooth and nail, then its bound to be good for India. As simple as that. :lol:
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Post by Shankar »

The world begs to differ
India passed 1,500 MW of total installed wind power capacity in 2001 and is the third largest wind power producer in the world after Europe and the United States. 240 MW of new wind generating capacity came on-line in India 2001, which became the best year since 1995.

"With the ever increasing threat of global warming, developing countries, countries in transition and the developed countries have to address the issue of Climate Change", says Rakesh Bakshi, Chairman RRB Consultants & Engineers Pvt. Ltd. and Conference Chairman. "We must accord greater recognization to environmentally friendly technologies especially those like Wind Power which are already mature;, established globally and have an excellent preformance track record of more than two decades. ut 20 years in India but from 1,The Potential for Wind Energy in India is around 45,000 MW. It is expected that 10 per cent of the proposed capacity addition in India of 100,000 MW in the next 10 years i.e. 10,000 MW would come from the Wind Energy Sector. From zero to 1,500 MW has taken us abo500 MW to 10,000 MW shall take us ten years. Wind Power has come of age and the next 20 years will see greater and enhanced deployment of Wind Electric Generators as a clean and green source of Power Generation both onshore and offshore", says Mr. Bakshi.

The US, the world's second largest market after Germany, installed nearly 1,700 MW in 2001 - more than double the previous record set in 1999. Total installed capacity increased by more than 60% to 4,261 MW by the end of last year. Utility-scale wind turbines are now operating in more than half of the 50 states.

"The United States is just beginning to tap its vast wind power potential," said Jamie Chapman, President of OEM Development Corporation and Conference Chairman. "We expect that wind will provide 6% of U.S. electricity by 2020. That's a figure that could be easily exceeded with strong and consistent support on the part of our federal and state governments."

"We are proud of the international cooperation we see at work in the American market," added Mr. Chapman. "European and Japanese companies work alongside the American industry on many bids and contracts. An Indian wind turbine manufacturer recently opened a branch in the U.S. This vibrant collaboration is yet another indication that the windpower industry is truly global."

Europe also exceeded most expectations with an increase in installed capacity of more than 35%. With 4,500 MW installed during 2001, total wind power capacity in Europe now surpasses 17,000 MW.
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Post by Shankar »

and some current data on wind power
As of April 2007 the installed capacity of wind power in India was 7,113.6 MW, mainly spread across Tamil Nadu (3457.5 MW), Maharashtra (1484.9 MW), Karnataka (849.4 MW), Rajasthan (469.9 MW), Gujarat (667.1 MW), Andhra Pradesh (121.8 MW), Madhya Pradesh (57.8 MW), Kerala (2 MW), West Bengal (1.6 MW), Others (1.6 MW) Indian states.[1]

The growth of power generating capacity in India is today driven largely by increasing energy needs. The short gestation periods for installing wind turbines, and the increasing reliability and performance of wind energy machines has made the sector a favored choice for capacity addition.[2]

The worldwide installed capacity of wind power reached 74,223 MW by the end of 2006. Germany (20,621 MW), Spain (11,615 MW), and the USA (11,603 MW) are ahead of India in fourth position.[3]
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Post by Shankar »

Hydropower is recognized as a renewable source of energy, which is economic, non-polluting and environmentally benign. The history of hydropower generation in India is more than 100 years old. The first hydropower station in India was a small hydro power station of 130 KW commissioned in 1897 at Sidrapong near Darjeeling in West Bengal. Subsequently, many small hydro power stations were set up. With the advancement in technologies and increasing requirement of electricity, emphasize was shifted to large sized hydro power stations. In 1963, the hydropower had attained a share of 50.62% in the total installed capacity of power generation in India. While there has been a continuous increase in the installed capacity of hydropower stations, which now stands on 22,439 MW, the share of hydropower has been reduced to 25% currently. Ministry of Power in the Government of India is responsible for the development of large hydropower projects in India. In order to maintain the balance between hydropower and thermal power, Ministry of Power has announced a Policy for accelerated development of Hydro Power in the country. Development of small hydro at an accelerated pace is one of the tasks in the Policy.

An estimated potential of about 15,000 MW of small hydropower projects exists in India. Ministry of Non-conventional Energy Sources has created a database of potential sites of small hydro based on information from various States and on studies conducted by Central Electricity Authority. 4,096 potential sites with an aggregate capacity of 10,071 MW for projects up to 25 MW capacity have been identified. The database is being continuously updated.

OVER 4096 POTENTIAL SHP SITES HAVE BEEN IDENTIFIED

AGGREGATING OVER 10,071 MW.

http://mnes.nic.in/shp20pot.htm
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Post by ShauryaT »

The NE Region is blessed with a huge hydro potential in the country which is estimated at about 58971MW, out of which only less than 2% (two percent) (1095MW) has so far been harnessed. As per the report status of Hydro Electric Power Potential listed by CEA as on 31.10.2006 out of the total capacity of 58971MW only 4029 MW of this enormous capacity has been tapped which amounts to less than 7% (seven percent) , the remaining 93% (ninety three percent) is yet to be exploited and harnessed.
This is not counting our Northern regions (HP, Uttaranchal, J&K), Bhutan, Nepal and Burma, which would add to the total. IMO, the total potential for all of India and surrounding nations, is nothing less than a minimum of 150,000 MW of energy.
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Post by sunilUpa »

Shankar wrote:and some current data on wind power
As of April 2007 the installed capacity of wind power in India was 7,113.6 MW, mainly spread across Tamil Nadu (3457.5 MW), Maharashtra (1484.9 MW), Karnataka (849.4 MW), Rajasthan (469.9 MW), Gujarat (667.1 MW), Andhra Pradesh (121.8 MW), Madhya Pradesh (57.8 MW), Kerala (2 MW), West Bengal (1.6 MW), Others (1.6 MW) Indian states.[1]

The growth of power generating capacity in India is today driven largely by increasing energy needs. The short gestation periods for installing wind turbines, and the increasing reliability and performance of wind energy machines has made the sector a favored choice for capacity addition.[2]

The worldwide installed capacity of wind power reached 74,223 MW by the end of 2006. Germany (20,621 MW), Spain (11,615 MW), and the USA (11,603 MW) are ahead of India in fourth position.[3]

LOL, you may want to look at this article.

Wind Power Potential in India- Hype or Reality
In the mid-90`s, when the European countries had saturated their windpower markets and were looking for better avenues, India (with some vested interested bureaucrats) offered the right conditions. So, our country practically laid a red carpet to welcome them by announcing customs exemption on several components, 100% accelarated depreciation, 10-year tax holiday on power sales, attractive power purchase agreement, wheeling and banking, etc. The state governments added their own incentives in form of sales tax exemption.

The net result was, with all these incentives, at zero generation, the internal rate of return (IRR) was as high as 7.5% (for Gujarat). Zero generation is possible when
(1) the place where the turbine is installed is not right or
(2) there is no turbine at all!!


When I was looking at the generation figures for the different installations at a station called Lamba (in Rajkot), there were more than half with zero units generated for the entire year, with March showing a magical 5 units or 4 or some such odd numbers. This is because, March is the financial year ending and the companies who have invested, to get the incentives have to show some generation. Further, what is shocking is, there were atleast about 25 to 35% of lease-financing companies that were listed in the investors. These are certainly not energy intensive companies who are looking for alternative energy sources to meet their requirements. These were companies that were interested in the incentives and not in power generation. Not surprising therefore that the installations (where such installations actually are standing) are not being managed at all.

researcher from TERI (who also was involved in this study) remarked that several of the "installations" are actually not there on the field!!! Now you know how the bureaucracy was getting part of their money??? The other part comes from the international (read European) companies that were more than greasing the palms.

Following my presentation in MNES, the Ministry of Finance announced Minimum Alternative Tax (MAT) and what followed later was a complete collapse of the once thriving investment avenue. In fact a few companies that came up to support wind turbine industry also had to close their shops

All those claims on 'Potential' are nothing but lot of WIND :D
Last edited by sunilUpa on 01 Sep 2007 00:23, edited 2 times in total.
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Post by vsudhir »

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Post by bala »

Wind Power Potential in India- Hype or Reality
This is OT but..

First and Foremost this article is outdated 2003. There are several good points in the article but the bottom line is that wind power is here to stay and contributes to the grid. Many of the issues with T&D losses are being addressed by power reform, i.e. Production, Transmission and End-user Distribution are being separated with its own P&L Stmts. The state of TN is doing very well with wind power technology, since it has good policies to connect to the grid (for producers). The other states in the Union have a long way to go, but on the average if each state can target 1GW, then India can have 30GW power from wind power alone in the next say 5 yrs. India should also look at Solar Power not by conversion by silicon alone but other means like Rankine Engine, which Stirling in California is creating a 700MW plant in the deserts.

Germany and Spain are benefitting from Wind Power. The US has the potential to produce 3 times as much power they produce nationwide just by Wind Power alone. Many states in the US are looking into Wind Power and currently Wind Power has the fastest growth in the US. Wind Turbines are bigger in capacity (1-2MW) with improved eco-friendly turbine designs.

The bottom line is renewable energy is here to stay and govts that encourage judicious use of of renewables with long term plans ultimately win. There are methods to utilize power generation on a 24x7x365 basis by conversion to other forms to even the production spike. Reducing C02 worldwide will become more acute as the days go by. There is enough evidence to show looming crisis due to global warming and it is incumbent on nations to quickly respond to the crisis. India has to increase renewable energy consumption and nuclear energy plays a very important role.
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Post by ldev »

sunilUpa wrote:All those claims on 'Potential' are nothing but lot of WIND
Aaaand, a lot of wind has been passed on this thread by certain EBs. :P Who are now running around like - to quote Mr. Ronen Sen - "headless chickens", now that both the Right and the Left as well as the Scientific Community are being coopted onto this deal. With Shri Advani and the RSS in favor of a strategic partnership with the US, the chances of the NDA overturning this deal should they come to power in the future are close to zero - they would not want to upset their strategic partners :) . And now that the Left knows that the NDA is not going to overturn this deal even if they come to power, for the Left to bring this government down will be a pyrrhic victory. The deal will be signed and the Left cannot perform their Chinese master's bidding of driving a wedge in the growing India US relationship.
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Post by enqyoobOLD »

India passed 1,500 MW of total installed wind power capacity in 2001 and is the third largest wind power producer in the world


True, but the generation is dominated by the periods when Lok Sabha is in session. As elections draw near, the generation spikes.

Also, what is happening with these eritist Boulgeois Countel-Levorutionaly Papel Tigels of Impelialrsm and their Lunning Dogs attacking the Comlades?

Send them all to a Le-Education Camp! :evil: :twisted:

As for the EBs:
U-Turn!
Quick March!
8)
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Post by enqyoobOLD »

In Praise of the Immediate Need to Test Nuclear Weapons Above Ground


Excuse # 3992:
THALIDOMIDE TEST BAN TREATY (TTBT)
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Post by ldev »

I feel almost - but not quite sorry for the EBs. With their generals having deserted them and made their separate peace, the EBs are milling around, running low on charge and asking plaintive questions such as:
Who will deliver us from this evil? :((
Is there anyone left to ask questions? :((
It was not supposed to be like this :((
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Post by Manny »

milindc wrote:
Shankar wrote:with all due respect to all of Indias top nuclear scientists who till a year back was so mcuh against the deal have sudden;ly turned around and now support the deal -why?
B'cos every patriotic Indian knows that if left is opposing the deal tooth and nail, then its bound to be good for India. As simple as that. :lol:
Thats exactly right. If the commies want something.. It is every Patriotic Indian's patriotic duty to take the opposite position.

Just like the commies and their sympathizers have always consistently stood against India's interest.

:D

Manny
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Post by Tilak »

enqyoob wrote:In Praise of the Immediate Need to Test Nuclear Weapons Above Ground


Excuse # 3992:
THALIDOMIDE TEST BAN TREATY (TTBT)
Arundhati Roy, would be proud of thee.. Another High ! :)

We are all against the Nukes, look at the poor baby from Borat Land.. Have you no hearts !!

Sign the NPT+CTBT+FMCT !! I say .. 8)
Last edited by Tilak on 01 Sep 2007 03:01, edited 1 time in total.
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Post by ShibaPJ »

Interesting read.. Chinese show more colours.. & see why commies are opposing the deal..

View from China: India seeking 'big power' status through N-deal

In a second salvo within a fortnight against the India-United States civilian nuclear deal, a leading official Chinese newspaper has accused New Delhi of seeking 'big power' status with Washington's backing and even stretching its 'tentacles' outside Asia.

'The US-Indian nuclear agreement has strong symbolic significance for India in achieving its dream of a powerful nation,' the People's Daily, the official mouthpiece of the ruling Communist Party of China, said in a commentary.

'As a big country with rapid economic growth, India is keen on gaining greater influence in international affairs and playing a decisive role in the international arena. At this point, maybe it is not an exaggeration to say that the India-US civilian nuclear energy agreement actually demonstrates its dream to become a big power,' the commentary, second since August 17, says.

'In addition, the United States has explicitly proposed in the agreement that it would not hamper or intervene in the development of India's military nuclear plan, which will also help the country achieve its goals to be a nuclear power,' it notes with concern.

'In fact, the purpose of the United States to sign civilian nuclear energy cooperation agreement with India is to enclose India into its global partners' camp, so as to balance the forces of Asia. This fits in exactly with India's wishes,' the paper said.

'Since India declared independence in 1947, it has always been determined to become a big power,' it said while noting that although there are still people questioning the possibility, India did make 'good achievement' in the following 60 years.

The comments in the official media came just three days after Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao stated that China sought friendly ties with India and did not consider New Delhi's rise as a threat.

"We wish the Indian people happiness and India prosperity. We also wish continued progress in the friendly relations and cooperation between China and India. Both Prime Minister Singh and I repeated on many occasions that China's development and India's development are each others opportunity rather than a threat," Wen had said in an
interview to PTI in Beijing [Images].

The People's Daily commentary also noted that India has been reaching out to the international community, especially in East Asia, traditionally considered China's backyard.

'In recent years, it introduced and implemented a 'Look-East' policy and joined most regional organisations in the East Asian region. India also sought to stretch its tentacles outside Asia and even actively chased after strategic cooperation some African countries.'

At the same time, the commentary noted that for more than a month after the US House of Representatives passed the agreement between the United States and India on civilian nuclear energy cooperation by an overwhelming majority on July 26, it has suffered constant setbacks.

At first, it created 'friction' between India and Pakistan and then Prime Minister Manmohan Singh's [Images] claim on India's right to conduct nuclear tests in future and the warning from the United States that if New Delhi conducted nuclear tests, it will terminate the implementation of its agreement with India on civilian nuclear energy cooperation, the commentary noted.

The commentary took note that even as the 'Leftist forces' wanted the government to stop 'promoting' the Indo-US nuclear deal, Singh has asserted that he would not do so even if the Left-wing threatens to 'topple' the government.

The commentary also came to the conclusion that despite the hiccups, with the majority of the Indian public supporting the nuclear deal, India and the United States will continue to move ahead with the implementation of the agreement.

Analysts believe that although the Leftists were worried that the agreement will deprive India of independence in its foreign policy and Singh's government will encounter some resistance in promoting nuclear cooperation between India and the United States, the two will continue to advance the agreement.

In the end, the commentary acknowledges that India is energy deficient and the Indo-US civilian nuclear deal will help India greatly to ease the power shortage and provide guarantee to a steady economic development.

'As a matter of fact, India is extremely short of energy. Electricity shortage has been a big problem that has plagued people's normal life and sustainable economic development,' noted.
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Post by sunilUpa »

bala wrote:
Wind Power Potential in India- Hype or Reality
This is OT but..

.
Bala,

The question is not about wind energy per se, but about how the numbers are just thrown around and how mis leading these numbers are. When calculating tha costs, you should include indirect costs to the state (therefore to tax payers) such as Tax holidays, Accelerated depreciation, Custom duty waiver, subsidy etc. Then throw in actual capacity factor..wind farms generate power at full rated capacity about 10% of the time, avarage capacity factor being around 30% (40% is considered best) . In india, windfarm at Jogimatti in Karnataka is the most efficient with a capacity factor of 39%.

Oh BTW, all those throwing the 40000 mw Wind energy potential in India forget to add the small foot note..the technical potential is limited to 13000 MW..go look up MNES site.

No doubt renewal energy is desirable, but is not the answer to our problem now.
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Post by SaiK »

None of the renewable energy sources are "real-time power sources".

- Nuke powered turbines
- Gas fired turbines
- Coal fired turbines

are the ones that can be near real time. We need these types more, and the renewables as mostly ad hoc, backups, and lower powered and speciality usage.

Why are we comparing two different types of power sources that can't be put to use on real time basis.
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Post by Tilak »

Pranab may visit US in September
1 Sep 2007, 0215 hrs IST,Indrani Bagchi,TNN
NEW DELHI: The Left parties' informal veto on India's "strategic embrace" with the US notwithstanding, Foreign Minister Pranab Mukherjee may travel to Washington towards the end of September for a round of political talks with the US leadership.

He is expected to lead the Indian delegation to participate in US president George Bush's climate change initiative, which has invited 11 "emerging economies" to look at effecting climate change programmes.

Mukherjee's schedule is yet to be finalised but it is understood that he may travel to Washington after representing India at the UN general assembly, as, for the second consecutive year, PM Manmohan Singh will skip the event. :roll:

But, it will be Mukherjee's talks with his counterpart Condoleezza Rice that will be important. There is also a possibility of a meeting with Bush as well, particularly since it's unlikely that Singh will make it either to the UN general assembly or take up Bush's invitation for a summit at Crawford, Texas.

Mukherjee will bring the US government up to speed on the domestic opposition to the deal. Most analysts also expect {ie. FUD starts here...}that the naysayers in Washington will have started drumming up support against the deal themselves. To avert a political crisis, the UPA government has had to take a step back on the deal, delaying IAEA talks by about a month. {ie. No progress, on the Fuel Guarantees front. }

This will necessarily delay the informal timeline on the deal that had been agreed between the two sides. Although Mukherjee indicated on Friday that talks with IAEA would continue, it is believed the government has acceded to the Left demand not to go to the IAEA at the moment. {Hence the run to Washington to ask if the Govt. has any option rather than take the face saver..}

Mukherjee is expected to reinforce the UPA commitment to the deal, though, if the government falls and is forced to go for elections, the deal will be put in the freezer. The general idea is that India wants the next stage of the deal - at the NSG - to be worked on so as to push it through at some speed before the US Congress goes into election mode by mid-2008.

While the official delegation will be led by the PM's scientific advisor R Chidambaram, Mukherjee is expected to provide the political content.
General Disclaimer applies..
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Post by vsudhir »

Why US suppliers won't supply N-equipment to India -Swaminathan A Iyer (TOI)
In the Bhopal gas case, Indian courts issued a warrant for the arrest of the head of Union Carbide on criminal charges. The Three Mile Island accident in the US further raised public apprehensions, and Chernobyl was the final straw. So, US companies today refuse to supply equipment, know-how or blueprints to a country unless it first enacts legislation limiting the liability of suppliers. Indeed, the UN nuclear industry wants all countries to sign a comprehensive convention channelling all liabilities of an accident to the operator of the plant, leaving the suppliers unscathed.

In the US itself the liability of the nuclear industry is capped, with the US government guaranteeing to pay damages over and above the cap. Similar laws have been enacted in Japan, Korea and even China. But for this, China would not have received so many bids for its new generation of nuclear plants.

However, India does not have any such law. At a meeting of the CII and US Chambers of Commerce in Washington in June, Mr Omer Brown, one of the top legal experts on nuclear liability who also represents the US nuclear industry, said that no American firm would supply even a blueprint, let alone equipment, until India provided nuclear liability protection.

A nuclear liability regime would ensure compensation to the public in the event of an accident, he explained. Such a regime would also channel all liabilities to the nuclear facility's operator (eliminating the need to prove fault or sue multiple parties), and would designate a single competent court to consolidate all claims and give a final, binding verdict. It would cap the liability of the industry, with the government paying damages above the cap.

So, Mr Karat, even if the US converts the 123 agreement into law, no US supplier will look at India until it passes a liability protection law. Since the Congress-led coalition lacks a majority in Parliament, it cannot pass any legislation without your support. By refusing to support legislation on liability protection, you can ensure that the 123 agreement is not operationalised.
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Post by Prem »

IAEA talks on nuke deal to continue: Pranab

url

External Affairs Minister Pranab Mukherjee today made it clear that IAEA negotiations for implementing Indo-US nuclear deal will go on. This assertion of the government comes after Left and UPA agreed to set up a committee whose findings will be taken into account before operationalisation of the nuclear deal.

When asked if yesterday’s statement meant the deal is paused, Mukherjee replied, “Did I ever say that deal is put on hold? Is it written anywhere?â€
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Post by SSridhar »

Shankar,
with all due respect to all of Indias top nuclear scientists who till a year back was so mcuh against the deal have sudden;ly turned around and now support the deal -why?
With all due respect, it is quite the opposite of what you intend by raising this question. It only shows that the hard-nosed scientists (who, btw, did not *oppose* the deal but so much as tried to ensure it did not impinge on our strategic programmes etc.) are now *fully satisfied* that they don't need to worry. This is not as you suspect any conspiracy or stage management.
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Post by Shirish »

The very first fact in Swaminathan's article is wrong. Union Carbide was the operator and owner of the Bhopal plant. As such, the officers of the company are finally responsible. ( I mean the Board). Life in the Hamptons is rough too.
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Post by Roop »

...with all due respect to all of Indias top nuclear scientists who till a year back was so mcuh against the deal have sudden;ly turned around and now support the deal -why?
And with equal respect to India's top naysayers, this question that you pose as a cosmic level mystery is no mystery at all, in fact it is not even at the level of a child's puzzle. You would know why the scientists changed their attitude if you were following this debate all along.
  • The initial opposition was because their concerns had been ignored by the MMS negotiating team's rash and reckless style. Those concerns were: explicit references to "no more weapons testing"; protection of the FBR program; India's rights to reprocess spent reactor fuel; the balance of rights/responsibilities as in 'safeguards in perpetuity' and 'fuel supply in perpetuity'.
  • After the scientists' concerns were addressed by the PMO -- in fact, the scientists were included in the negotiating team -- the gaps/holes in the draft 123 were blocked. The scientists' concerns were satisfied, they were aware of the deal's benefits to India, so they started being pro-deal (i.e. pro the new modified 123 deal).
In fact, your question embodies the following philsophy: "We were relying on the scientists to be permanently reliable Amerca-bashing Energizer Bunnies. They changed their positions. Why? Why?!! :(( "
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Post by Manny »

Mohan Raju wrote:
...with all due respect to all of Indias top nuclear scientists who till a year back was so mcuh against the deal have sudden;ly turned around and now support the deal -why?
And with equal respect to India's top naysayers, this question that you pose as a cosmic level mystery is no mystery at all, in fact it is not even at the level of a child's puzzle. You would know why the scientists changed their attitude if you were following this debate all along.
  • The initial opposition was because their concerns had been ignored by the MMS negotiating team's rash and reckless style. Those concerns were: explicit references to "no more weapons testing"; protection of the FBR program; India's rights to reprocess spent reactor fuel; the balance of rights/responsibilities as in 'safeguards in perpetuity' and 'fuel supply in perpetuity'.
  • After the scientists' concerns were addressed by the PMO -- in fact, the scientists were included in the negotiating team -- the gaps/holes in the draft 123 were blocked. The scientists' concerns were satisfied, they were aware of the deal's benefits to India, so they started being pro-deal (i.e. pro the new modified 123 deal).
In fact, your question embodies the following philsophy: "We were relying on the scientists to be permanently reliable Amerca-bashing Energizer Bunnies. They changed their positions. Why? Why?!! :(( "
Very well put. Is it amazing.. the lefties and the commie sympathizers... come here crying. Its amazing their tenacity in spite of proof after proof. ...their thinking has proven to be an abject failure (The Soviet union and China vs all the capitalist countries). Their thinking being rob peter to pay paul... as long as they are not peter (Other peoples wealth distribution) Instead of wealth creation (every vegetable hawker aka capitalists in India is God's people...who believe that that they need to add value to earn their living). These commies and their passive supporters are singularly responsible for the 500 million Indians living in poverty. They alone bare the moral responsibility. They had total control the first 50 years and they FAILED miserably. There should be no quarters for these creatures. Even giving them the face saving actions are an anathema for me. They do not deserve such consideration any more than the NAZIs for their holocaust! They both ended up the same.. Infact the commies did lot more harm!

Manny
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Post by kshirin »

A financial analyst based in London thinks the stalling fo the nuclear deal is important enough to mention in his Economic report The India Report Astaire Research London, August 31, 2007, which paints a very upbeat picture of India's economy:

"Fears of mid-term elections before the end of term in May 2009 remain despite hopes of a compromise between P.M. Dr Singh’s Government and its 4 Communist allies over the nuclear deal with the U.S. The left parties provide crucial support through their 60 MPs to the Government for survival and have been vociferous and critical of the Government’s warming relations with Washington following Dr Singh’s visit there in 2005. They are opposed to the nuclear deal saying that it hurts India’s sovereignty and may unduly influence its foreign policy. The deal aims to end 30 years of American sanctions on nuclear trade and give India access to civilian nuclear fuel and equipment to assist it with its soaring energy needs, even though it has tested nuclear weapons and rejected non-proliferation pacts. India imports about 70% of its oil needs and this is estimated to increase to 85% in 10 years to fuel a growing economy. Relations between Dr Singh’s Government (following Democracy) and the Communists have been strained from the start in May 2004 because of fundamentally different ideology. The left opposes many parts of economic liberalization and reforms and opening up of sectors to foreign investors on grounds of job losses hitting the poor in a country which has no social security net. New Delhi cannot afford to delay the deal as it needs to ensure U.S. Congress approval this year, ahead of US Presidential elections looming in 2008.
§ The current political turmoil means that the economic reforms process will be a loser again. The left has already blocked plans for partial privatisations and has considerably slowed down reforms on retailing, insurance and pensions. Despite economic reforms being delayed and held hostage again to coalition politics strong economic performance over the last four years has not been derailed. The economy has gained a strong momentum of its own due to the cumulative reforms todate, the progressive unshackling of the economy and the private sector’s entrepreneurial spirit being unleashed. GDP growth over the last four years averaged 8.6% pa, the highest ever, with exports doubling in that period. This is despite very poor infrastructure reducing GDP growth by about 1½ -2% pa, per Government estimates. However, economic reforms are needed to maintain a high growth rate, reduce the fiscal deficit and spread higher-paid employment beyond English-speaking middle and wealthier classes currently benefiting from the economic boom. The Indian stock market has, on average over the last four general elections, gone up in the 10 month run-up to voting day. "

The Commies have been persitently doing China's work in slowing down reform and growth. I am a bit unsure about retail opening though, unless accompanied by infrastrcutural improvements particularly in agriculture setcor.
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Post by enqyoobOLD »

I am a bit unsure about retail opening though, unless accompanied by infrastrcutural improvements particularly in agriculture setcor.


This is best seen as the Lexuses drive up at 2mph over the pot-holed roads, with basically a flag-man to shoo off the cattle and hoi-polloi who have to be on the road because there is either no sidewalk, or the sidewalk looks like it has been attacked with runway-destruction deep penetrator bombs.

And then squeezing into a parking space too small for anyone except professional drivers whose annual salary is a fraction of the cost of re-painting a scratch on the Lexus' side.

And the well-heeled occupants getting out and then declining to go to the "imported textiles" shop on the 5th floor in the fire-trap "shopping mall" because the elevator won't work because of the power cut, and they are all heart patients because of the stress of the Lexus ride through Indian traffic.

All problems that can be solved if the mall is razed, the Lexus burned, and the occupants looted and killed - or sent to "re-education camps" like in Cambodia. Inquilab Zindabad!
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Post by Shankar »

Posted: 01 Sep 2007 12:17 am Post subject: Reply with quote
Quote:
...with all due respect to all of Indias top nuclear scientists who till a year back was so mcuh against the deal have sudden;ly turned around and now support the deal -why?


And with equal respect to India's top naysayers, this question that you pose as a cosmic level mystery is no mystery at all, in fact it is not even at the level of a child's puzzle. You would know why the scientists changed their attitude if you were following this debate all along.


* The initial opposition was because their concerns had been ignored by the MMS negotiating team's rash and reckless style. Those concerns were: explicit references to "no more weapons testing"; protection of the FBR program; India's rights to reprocess spent reactor fuel; the balance of rights/responsibilities as in 'safeguards in perpetuity' and 'fuel supply in perpetuity'.

- how does the no more weapons testing concern have been answered ,can you please explain as far as the 123 is concerned the moment we take the us domestic laws kick in which includes the hyde act and atomic energy act which makes the president halt all nuclear cooperation and initiate sanctions .Nothing have happened except some change in language and rewritting in more vague terms the implicit threat of what will happen if we test

As regards FBR it was outside the ambit of 123 right from the begining along with BARC as key components of our weapons programme so atleast on that front the scientists had no concern even on day one


* After the scientists' concerns were addressed by the PMO -- in fact, the scientists were included in the negotiating team -- the gaps/holes in the draft 123 were blocked. The scientists' concerns were satisfied, they were aware of the deal's benefits to India, so they started being pro-deal (i.e. pro the new modified 123 deal).

The scientists opposed the deal itself -if you care to read the back issues of all the news papers of those days -now they are voracious supporters that is the funny and mystry part of the whole situation


In fact, your question embodies the following philsophy: "We were relying on the scientists to be permanently reliable Amerca-bashing Energizer Bunnies. They changed their positions. Why? Why?!!
well there are a whole bus load of reasons and history for the scientists to behave like that after all they had keep the tarapur running once us stopped the fuel supply or develop their own cryogenic engine after us forced russia to stop technology transfer and redo LCA software after GE kicked out the indian engineers -it is only reasonable for them to be apprehensive -in fact we all should be apprehensive going by the way US has treated all our scientific achievements till date
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Post by Shankar »

ew Delhi, July 28, IRNA
India-US-Nuke-Scientists
The top nuclear scientists of India opposed the US law for implementing the nuclear deal between the two countries.

For India's top scientists, the deal was against "national interest and makes the country subservient" to Washington.

The scientists feel that Washington's dealings with India in past "did not evoke confidence".

Former Atomic Energy Commission chairman M.R. Srinivasan felt the provisions of the US law were "intrusive and made one feel that Washington was treating India as a subservient entity, not as a sovereign, responsible nuclear power", Asian Age reported here today.

A.N. Prasad, former director of Bhaba Atomic Research Centre (BARC) and India's representative in the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), said that the "US has already shifted the goalposts and does not treat India as an equal partner in the deal."

His view was strongly shared by A. Gopalakrishnan, former chairman of Atomic Energy Regulatory Board (AERB).

According to them, the US was "unilaterally imposing conditions in the law that went far beyond the agreements of July 18 last year and March 2 this year, entered into between US President George W. Bush and Prime Minister Manmohan Singh."

Srinivasan said that the "objectionable" features in the US legislation were in the statement of policy that prescribed a moratorium on India conducting nuclear tests and forcing it enter into bilateral agreements on Fissile Material Cut Off Treaty and Missile Test Control Regime.

"Clearly this is something India did not bargain," Srinavasan observed.

Dr Srinivasan, who is a member of the AEC, observed that following certain stringent conditions being "imposed" India would be denied access to reprocessing and enrichment of fuel.

Dr Gopalakrishnan said it was "naive" on the part of media and Indian foreign policy establishment to "tomtom" about the "overwhelming" support for the legislation in the US Congress.

Dr Gopalakrishnan pointed out that the members of the Congress were only "overwhelmingly protecting their own national interests." Dr Gopalakrishnan said that the bill could be "damaging to India as there was a serious concern in the country over its provisions." He felt that while India "adhered to the aspects of the deal and decided to open the nuclear facilities for international safeguards there was no guarantee that the US would meet its obligations."

For him the result could be that "India would not get fuel supplies from any part of the world and Indian strategic programme could be weakened." Launching a scathing attack on the US, he said, "America has been calling the shots and has not been treating others with respect."
2160/1771
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Post by ldev »

US wanted India to test N bomb before China
But more than 40 years ago, a number of US state department officials were keen that India carry out a nuclear test before communists China did.

This is revealed in a September 13, 1961 memo from a US state department official, George McGhee, to then secretary of state Dean Rusk. According to the memo, many state department officials seriously wanted to help India acquire a nuclear bomb. It quoted intelligence estimates which stated that China could detonate a nuclear device as early as 1962.

"Such a demonstration of Chinese nuclear power would likely contribute to a feeling that communism is the wave of the future and communist China will become too powerful as a country," it said.

To avert such a Chinese gain, McGhee proposed that it would be desirable if a friendly Asian power beat communist China to the punch by detonating a nuclear device first. "While we would like to limit the number of nuclear powers, so long as we lack the capability to do so, we ought to prefer that the first Asian one be India and not China," said the memo.

Of course, India could not have accumulated enough fissionable material at that time to produce a nuclear explosion. Aware of that, the memo appeared to suggest that the US explore whether American technical assistance could help induce India to conduct a nuclear explosion ahead of China.

But the plan was not accepted because of practical reasons, including former Prime Minister Jawaharlal Nehru's reluctance to acquire nuclear weapons.

"I am against nuclear tests at any time in any place," India's first prime minister has been quoted as saying.
China eventually did conduct its test well ahead of India - in 1964, the year Nehru died.

Until almost the very end, the US state department continued to hope that Nehru could be somehow persuaded about the importance of carrying out a test.

According to the memo, Nehru could be told that if India carried out a nuclear test, it would forestall China using nuclear blackmail against India. Also, it would reduce China's ability to bully the neighbours of India.

But the plan was eventually dropped. Some years later, the initial phase of nuclear cooperation between India and the US began in Tarapur with the commissioning of the 160-MW boiling water reactors designated as Tarapur 1 and 2 in October 1969.

However, the US withdrew cooperation to this project after Buddha smiled - that is India detonated its first nuclear bomb at Pokhran on May 18, 1974.
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Post by NRao »

Despite economic reforms being delayed and held hostage again to coalition politics strong economic performance over the last four years has not been derailed.
What more does MMS (the negotiator and not politician) need to prove that he could have bargained for more?

Even with some politicians doing utmost to stop progress, the econ is teh 2nd fastest in the world!!!

IMHO, the situation should be getting better for India in the next 20 years. The US should be paying India to get a foot in.
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Post by Prabu »

Raju

Post by Raju »

China hints it's ready for nuclear talks with India

Saibal Dasgupta | TNN

Beijing: Chinese foreign minister Yang Jiechi on Friday hinted that Beijing was prepared to explore possibilities of cooperation with India on peaceful use of nuclear energy. The indication came during a meeting on Sino-Indian relations between Yang and a 11-member Eminent Persons Group from India in Beijing on Friday.

The Indian delegation was also a little surprised by the fact that Yang did not mention the controversial issue about India not signing the nuclear non-proliferation treaty. The Chinese government had earlier made much about this issue while objecting to New Delhi's nuclear deal with the United States. The Chinese media continues to harp on this issue on a regular basis.

"I think it is significant that he did not mention the NPT issue at all. He said China is eagerly looking forward to Prime Minister Manmohan Singh's visit to Beijing." said C V Ranganathan, head of the Indian side of the EPG and a former ambassador to China. Singh is expected to visit Beijing in November although there are uncertainties over the fate of the government.

Yang said China was keen on developing cooperation with countries on the peaceful use of nuclear energy under the safeguards of IAEA. The mention of IAEA without referring to the NPT was significant, Ranganathan felt.

"I got the impression that China is positive about India and understands our independent foreign policy. THere is no commitment from the Chinese side that they will back our N-deal with the US in international forums. But they are keen to avoid misunderstandings with India and sort out the issues," Ranganathan said.
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Post by Prabu »

Prabu
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Post by Prabu »

Raju wrote:China hints it's ready for nuclear talks with India

Saibal Dasgupta | TNN

Beijing: Chinese foreign minister Yang Jiechi on Friday hinted that Beijing was prepared to explore possibilities of cooperation with India on peaceful use of nuclear energy. The indication came during a meeting on Sino-Indian relations between Yang and a 11-member Eminent Persons Group from India in Beijing on Friday.

The Indian delegation was also a little surprised by the fact that Yang did not mention the controversial issue about India not signing the nuclear non-proliferation treaty. The Chinese government had earlier made much about this issue while objecting to New Delhi's nuclear deal with the United States. The Chinese media continues to harp on this issue on a regular basis.

"I think it is significant that he did not mention the NPT issue at all. He said China is eagerly looking forward to Prime Minister Manmohan Singh's visit to Beijing." said C V Ranganathan, head of the Indian side of the EPG and a former ambassador to China. Singh is expected to visit Beijing in November although there are uncertainties over the fate of the government.

Yang said China was keen on developing cooperation with countries on the peaceful use of nuclear energy under the safeguards of IAEA. The mention of IAEA without referring to the NPT was significant, Ranganathan felt.

"I got the impression that China is positive about India and understands our independent foreign policy. THere is no commitment from the Chinese side that they will back our N-deal with the US in international forums. But they are keen to avoid misunderstandings with India and sort out the issues," Ranganathan said.
Is it a mere co-incidance that our commies and China are softening their stands ? or Does uncle ,GOI and commies has a hand on this pre planned moves ?? :eek:
Last edited by Prabu on 01 Sep 2007 19:42, edited 1 time in total.
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Post by ShauryaT »

My evil mind thinks that all this opposition, from the left in India is being stage managed, with the help of the Chinese. My fear is, do not know, what will be the price that MMS would be willing to pay, for Chinese support to the deal?
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Post by Karan Dixit »

kshirin wrote: The Commies have been persitently doing China's work in slowing down reform and growth. I am a bit unsure about retail opening though, unless accompanied by infrastrcutural improvements particularly in agriculture setcor.
Excellent point!

Agriculture has been ignored for very long time in India. This is a very bad policy. Agriculture is the bedrock of a type of economy that is needed to make India truly prosperous. Taiwan type manufacturing based economy will not lead us anywhere because our objective is to be a true independent global player.

In a time of crisis, you will be forced to realize that you can live without a fancy TV set but you cannot live without wheat.

As I am typing this, the commies in West Bengal have allocated large chunk of very fertile agricultural land to build large group of factories. This is a very bad idea.

There must be a central law that prohibits construction of factories or other commercial buildings on agricultural lands.
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Post by Roop »

Prabu wrote:Sonia nukes critics, praises PM for N-deal
The link is screwed up. Here it is:

Sonia nukes critics, praises PM for N-deal
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Post by NRao »

Is it a mere co-incidance that our commies and China are softening their stands ? or Does uncle ,GOI and commies has a hand on this pre planned moves ??
The Chicom news papers are against this deal, while their politicians vocally seem to support it!!!!

Keep an eye on the worst case.
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Nuke deal no compromise on any laws

Post by joshvajohn »

Below is the news link from the Hindu - the comments of Jaswant Singh on Nuke deal.

Nuke deal: India should not compromise national laws
http://www.hinduonnet.com/thehindu/holn ... 012223.htm
Jaipur, Sept. 1 (PTI): Former External Affairs minister Jaswant Singh today said that at no cost should India compromise its national laws while signing the agreement to operationalise the Indo-US nuke deal.

Speaking to mediapersons after releasing a book here, Singh said "we are not against the US or the nuclear deal. But the Government of India should ensure that our strategic autonomy should not be compromised in any manner."

"It was NDA which had initiated the healthy relationship with the US. But, while dealing with US we should not compromise with our national security and country's interest and India should not be governed by American national laws for its strategic purposes," he said.


my comments -

One must recognise that in every deal there are two national laws are involved. If the deal is between India and US both laws are involved at times contradictory and at times smooth. For example even Russians decided to suspend all the rice imports recently because their law does not allow Indian to supply less quality ones. Russians (USSR) stopped at one point of time Indian tea because it was collapsing inspite of the formal agreement to buy or exchange for the arms.

The laws in export and import too in both sides have contradictory issues. Even the taxing and dumping laws are complicated and any country can apply on one or the other and thus argue in the WTO courts and then rich gets voices heard there! Every agreement is scrutinised according to national laws of each government.

Here is the agreement which is not made clear by the Indian government. It is also interesting CPIM and CPI are trying to bring out the secret out which cannot be brought out for many security concerns and reasons. BJP too join in working against national interest. There is no compromise of any laws here. Rather there is a bending of laws bothside. While Indians are bound by their laws Americans are bound by their laws. It is the strategical relationship that is more important than the agreement. India will hold on to their law and national security as their first priority rather than simply following american law. If that is challenged at one point of time India will go on its own way and the US law will have take effect and will act accordingly.
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Post by Roop »

Shankar:

I have already answered your questions to me re. the scientists, but you apparently reject these answers and have some other (unstated) explanations. Maybe the scientists are traitors in the pay of the CIA. Maybe they are ignorant fools. Maybe they are actually android robots with chips implanted in their heads by Sonia Gandhi. Who knows?

The point is, you clearly have a theory re. the scientists that you are trying to peddle here, but are unwilling to come right out and say what it is. You rely, instead, on dark hints and innuendo, nudge-nudge wink-wink suggestions. This is not an argument, it is a dishonest rhetorical trick, and I'm not playing that game. Maybe someone else is willing to play. I am not a mind-reader, I don't know what you are thinking if you won't say it.

As I have said a couple of times before on this thread, there is no honest good-faith debate by the deal opponents. They simply say something like, "Okay, okay, forget all that's been said so far. Can you respond to Brahma Chellaney's (or Bharat Karnad's, or the CPI's or Yashwant Sinha's) latest speech/article?". This cycle is repeated every few days.

At this point, all the questions on this deal have been asked and answered multiple times. People who still have not made up their minds are just intellectually lazy, and no debate will convince them. They are simply afraid to decide. Attempting to convince them using sweet reason is a waste of time. IMO of course.
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