North Korea conducts underground nuclear test

p_saggu · Post by **p_saggu** » 25 May 2009 20:22

The size of the quake suggests a big explosion ~ 20 KT range. This is surely China testing some new maal or plain jane stockpile stewardship.

John Snow · Post by **John Snow** » 25 May 2009 20:33

AOA

" A ICBM in the front yard and a nuke in the back yard of every country will usher world wide peace and understanding" Spinster 1999.

Inshaallah now Iran will soon do it, the Israelis slept while uncle and panda were helping TS Pakis, as usual Israelis thought they can make money out of Paki program via uncle. Israel should have taken out Paki bums long ago. The Islamic bum is here to stay. Now N Ko will share its technology with Iran.

When Israelis forget their nations security like Indians both nations suffer.

India needs to test, we should have after 26/11, well well

Amber G. · Post by **Amber G.** » 25 May 2009 20:33

According to this picture, there seems to be definite connection between Pak & NK.

John Snow · Post by **John Snow** » 25 May 2009 20:35

thats So Ko protesting No Ko

Tilak · Post by **Tilak** » 25 May 2009 20:37

Reaction to North Korea's nuclear test
(Reuters) - Following is reaction from the international community and political analysts

on North Korea's nuclear test.

UNITED STATES

President Barack Obama said North Korea's nuclear and missile tests were a "matter of grave concern to all nations" and warranted action by the international community.

"North Korea is directly and recklessly challenging the international community. North Korea's behavior increases tensions and undermines stability in Northeast Asia," Obama said in a statement.

UNITED NATIONS

The U.N. Security Council will meet on Monday to discuss the nuclear test, Russia's U.N. ambassador Vitaly Churkin was quoted as saying by Itar-Tass news agency.

JAPAN

The test was unacceptable and a violation of U.N. Security Council resolutions, Japan's top government spokesman said. Chief Cabinet Secretary Takeo Kawamura said Japan would seek a new resolution by the council. Kyodo news agency said Japan was also considering tightening its own sanctions on the communist state.

SOUTH KOREA

South Korean President Lee Myung-bak called an emergency meeting of cabinet ministers. South Korea's top financial regulator said it would soon hold an emergency meeting to discuss the situation in financial markets.

CHINA

While China has not commented publicly, the test will anger Beijing , the North's neighbor and long-time benefactor. But China is unlikely to back strong sanctions as part of any new U.N. Security Council resolution, Chinese analysts said. China's leaders will probably be more careful to balance their anger against worries Pyongyang could make six-party nuclear disarmament talks unsalvageable, one Chinese expert said.

RUSSIA

Russia's military said North Korea's nuclear test had a force of about 20 kilotonnes, Itar-Tass quoted a source in Russia's defense ministry as saying. A kilotonne is equivalent to 1,000 tonnes of TNT. An unidentified source in Russia's foreign ministry called for calm and warned against hysteria after the blast.

AUSTRALIA

Foreign Minister Stephen Smith said the test was provocative. "On the basis that North Korea has conducted a nuclear underground explosion, they deserve and get nothing other than our absolute condemnation, and that condemnation should be echoed around our region and the globe," Smith told parliament.

And Amrika (Kissinger, Zbig interview posted here earlier) I am told, believe that dlagon is concerned and comdemned Noko actions "in private"

and China doesn't like commenting "in pubric", same goes with Pakis..

Earlier :

China Stays Mum On North Korea Missile Antics
Jun 21, 2006

Rangudu · Post by **Rangudu** » 25 May 2009 20:38

I'm skeptical that the Lizard needs to test again. Every available evidence suggests that they are well in the range of weapon sophistication standards set by any of the other P5 states.

The Chinese role in the NK test seems primarily aimed at creating a major headache for the US and Japan like they created the TSP problem for us. I'm sure the Sinophiles in the US admin will now give an opening for the Lizard to act as some sort of super-mediator and come away with a lot of glory by negotiating another 1994 like deal with NoKo.

Watch out for the entire Sinophile gang from the Clinton days to raise their profile within the Obama admin and within the think-tank community in DC.

Jon Wolfsthal, Bob Einhorn etc. come to mind. Who else?

Tilak · Post by **Tilak** » 25 May 2009 20:56

Baljeet wrote:I agree tilak ji. I have no sympathy for "Jhapad=Japan" . Comrade Kim Il Zindabad. He has done India a favor. CTBT, NPT, FCMT and any other "T" is dead.
When a nation destined to become rich and powerful, all kind of events fall in place. If MMS administration has any kind of cajones, Massa-obama's goal of CTBT will go down in flames. Neither Clinton, Nor Bush, Nor Obama had been able to do anything about NOKO.
They have earned the respect of whole lot of nations who secretly despise massaland. Next is Iran.

Kindlee drop the "Ji" please. MMSJi has "my respect"(FWIW

) he has stood in the election as the PM, although he didn't contest for LS (technicality, though up for correction in the future). Now his administration has the mandate, and his hands are free and hope he fights back to regain Indias foothold, Nuke deal is done.. no point in keeping the anger/frustration alive although the grey area of reprocessing tech is still under blackmail/standstill(FMCT,CTBT), as of now.

Wrt. Iran, I am not sure if we should be exactly cheerleading them, although it will reduce the unconventional pressure of Saudis-Pak Sunni axis. And it should be properly vetted here. "Any" new country joining "the club" has its own dynamic of undercutting Indias position too (Not in terms of Blackmail/threats as we have a "no first use" in place, but deterrence et al.).

IMHO.

enqyoob · Post by **enqyoob** » 25 May 2009 21:00

Rangudu: They have no need to test for MILITARY weapon efficiency. My point is that they are testing for POLITICAL weapon efficiency. The sensors are in Seoul and DupleeCity.

Washington "security analysts" are so thoroughly bought out and lobotomized by Beijing that they can't even BEGIN to think about the PRC's real interests vis-a-vis the US and the rest of the world.

Cheers

John Snow · Post by **John Snow** » 25 May 2009 21:03

India has no position to under cut. I also wonder if Noko with hardly any industry other than sheet metal and making solid and liquid jel for rockets can make bums so easily? Does it reflect on BARC? that we have talent pool far exceeding these NoKo and yet our yields are like US treasury yields? Oh it will be gut wrenching to know the truth.

Tilak · Post by **Tilak** » 25 May 2009 21:47

X-Posted :

Just an Idea of which way the winds are blowing (David J Rothkopf is from Carnegie Endowment)

Three short takes.....
The second most important person in the State Department
Mon, 05/18/2009 - 5:11pm

What a good week for the subcontinent. India's elections are breathtaking in scope and their re-election of the government of Manmohan Singh, one of the world's wisest and most qualified heads of government, is heartening. That he is only the second Indian leader since independence to be re-elected after serving a full term suggests an India that is entering a phase of stable growth that should be appealing to those investing in its future and comforting to those, like the United States, who are increasingly dependent on it as an ally . But the success of this democratic experiment at such scale also sends a powerful message to countries like China who have long argued that such a system cannot work in nations of such scope and complexity.

Also, as to China, the position of U.S. Ambassador to China may be the second most important in the State Department after the Secretary's job. It has taken the Obama administration a long time to make their selection for this vital post. Their choice, Jon Huntsman, is an excellent one. He has almost all the traits needed to be the first envoy to that country since the general acknowledgement that it is our partner in the G2, our first, most important counterpart in the community of nations. He has extensive regional experience (from service as a missionary in Taiwan to that as an Ambassador to Singapore). He has very high-level U.S. and state government experience which not only gives him familiarity with a wide range of issues but also sends a message to the Chinese that only someone of high stature would do for the post. He speaks Chinese. And while some might quibble that he is not particularly close to Clinton and Obama, this is a small issue.

I have met with him a couple of times, once having had the opportunity for a long dinner time conversation with him a number of years ago, and I was struck with his intelligence, accessibility and political gifts. That he is legitimately seen as a potential Republican presidential candidate also will help with the Chinese and sends a message too about Obama's confidence as a chief executive.

:AIOT:

Amber G. · Post by **Amber G.** » 25 May 2009 22:29

Noting that Kim Jong-il had a stroke, the message may not be directed to US or others but to its (NK's) own people, says this NY times story.
Timing of Test Hints at Succession Issues

SEOUL, South Korea — When North Korea suddenly announced Monday that it had conducted a second nuclear test, the initial view across the region was that this was yet another defiant gambit by Pyongyang to extract more concessions from Washington.

.... But this time around, North Korea’s primary audience may not be the United States but its own population, many experts believe.

Monday’s test culminates a shift toward a more assertive foreign policy by North Korea, which some analysts said seems to have begun not long after North Korean leader Kim Jong-il is believed to have suffered a stroke in August.

...In fact, the test could well reflect the succession crisis now gripping North Korea, .....[speculations] has focused on his youngest son, Kim Jong-un, which would continue the family dynasty to the third generation — one unique among Communist nations..
<snip>

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 25 May 2009 22:49

Isnt six miles too deep for a piddly 4.7 Mb dhamaka. Was this supposed to be a bigger one? When the announced thier earlier test I had speculated whether it was the primary for a more ambitious program. So this one could be an assembly. No need to dig six miles for the small yield test.

Tilak · Post by **Tilak** » 25 May 2009 22:56

NORTH KOREA: DEFIES THE WORLD, NUCLEAR TEST AND MISSILE LAUNCH
Mon 25 May 2009

A few hours after a short-range ground-to-ground missile was launched from the Musudan-ri launching site, the same site used on April 5 for the launch of a Taepodong 2 missile.

If arty and Nuke tests arent enough , Dear Leadel tops it with a missile launch, as a reminder to Seoul..

Iran decries North Korea nuclear test

Tehran - Iran said Monday it opposed the nuclear test conducted Monday by North Korea and called for international efforts toward global denuclearization. "Iran basically opposes nuclear weapons and favours international efforts for global denuclearization," Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad said in a press conference in Tehran.

"We recommend all countries not to waste the people's national resources on moving toward nuclear proliferation and making weapons of mass destruction," Ahmadinejad said.

Gerard · Post by **Gerard** » 26 May 2009 01:09

ramana wrote:No need to dig six miles for the small yield test.

They didn't detonate at 6 miles down. USGS has the depth at 0m (project determined).

The Cannikin test (5 MT - largest ever underground test) was done at 1.1 miles.

The deepest hole ever made was 7.5 miles deep and took 24 years to drill.

I had speculated whether it was the primary for a more ambitious program. So this one could be an assembly.

They claimed to have used 2 kg of Pu for the first and it could have been a boosted primary.

This may indeed be a complete TN weapon but tested at reduced yield.

Gerard · Post by **Gerard** » 26 May 2009 01:29

Mort Walker wrote:North Korea Nuclear Test: Another Fizzle?

Yet the preliminary seismic data published by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) shows that the test had a seismic magnitude of 4.7, only slightly more powerful than the 4.3 of the 2006 test.

Do they not teach logarithms in US schools? This is what FAS has come to?

Gerard · Post by **Gerard** » 26 May 2009 01:43

The Ayatollah blog states

The DPRK apparently told China before its 2006 test that they were aiming for a yield of about 4 KT but they only acheived a yield around ½ KT.

Martin Kalinowski from The Project for the CTBT states

http://www.armscontrolwonk.com/file_dow ... nowski.pdf

Several seismic observatories all over the world recorded an event that took place in the North East of the country. The U.S. Geological Survey determined the event time as 00:54:43 UTC. The location is close to the first nuclear test. The seismic body wave magnitude of 4.7 is larger as compared to the value of 4.1±0.1 in 2006. According to the assessment of Martin Kalinowski, this corresponds to an explosive yield of about 3 to 8 kilotons TNT equivalent with a most likely yield of 4 kt TNT. In 2006 the yield was unexpectedly low with an estimate of 0.5 to 0.8 kt TNT.

So the North Koreans have their desired 4kt yield at last.

enqyoob · Post by **enqyoob** » 26 May 2009 02:10

From cnn.com

President Obama castigated the North Korean government Monday for conducting a second nuclear bomb test in defiance of multiple international warnings. North Korea's actions "pose a grave threat to the peace and stability of the world," Obama said at the White House. Obama promised that the United States and the international community would strongly respond to the test. He added that North Korea's actions have "flown in the face of United Nations resolutions" and were inviting deeper international isolation for the communist state.

There goes the presidential foot into the presidential mouth. This is Obama's very own EP-3- "Wrong-Way" Wong Wei incident.

First they tried the missile launch, and nothing much happened. Now this is much more

and we'll see how much of a wimp or a smart guy POTUS BO is. The world's Only SuperPower is doing what it does best- stir up trouble for the has-been Capitalist Imperialist Paper Tigers and the Running Dogs of Imperialism.

John Snow · Post by **John Snow** » 26 May 2009 04:40

on musing further, It looks like the Noko explosion is a master stroke by Lizard.
Lizard is putting pressure on uncle about dollar and got preached that if dollar goes so goes Lizard, hence buy more T bills, then came the noise about alternative to Dollar as intl currency, uncle was not listening, so right when Nancy P is in Peking the NoKo was given GO Ahead signal for the phataka, now Obama admin is scrambling to fall at the feet of Lizard to put restraint on NOKO TS Pakis Iran etc etc. Listen to the talk already to work closely with Lizard from the talking heads?

Where is our resident Non Prolif Grand Ayatollah Dr. Tim when we need him most. I think he will advocate strong sanctions against India for NoKo explosion because it emulated India

Paging Dr. Tim for his Uvacha pleas come in Dr. dont be shy

Muppalla · Post by **Muppalla** » 26 May 2009 04:42

John Snow wrote: Paging Dr. Tim for his Uvacha pleas come in Dr. dont be shy

You never leave him.

Arun_S · Post by **Arun_S** » 26 May 2009 04:51

Muppalla wrote:
John Snow wrote: Paging Dr. Tim for his Uvacha pleas come in Dr. dont be shy
You never leave him.

Muppalla bhai: Uddand Ko Dand Dena Nyaya Sangat Hai.
Usmay Kya Naya?

Gerard · Post by **Gerard** » 26 May 2009 05:25

The CTBT Organization reports

The CTBTO's initial findings on the DPRK's nuclear test

If the CTBT were in force, an on-site inspection could be dispatched to corroborate the findings and present them to its Member States to pronounce the final verdict.

but the CTBT is not in force. And nobody doubts it was a nuclear test. NoKo didn't claim this was an earthquake. There is nothing for the CTBTO to 'corroborate' and nobody gives a damn about a 'final verdict' from the CTBTO

An on-site-inspection will only be possible after the CTBT has entered into force.

which may be never

However, the initial seismic findings of today’s event have already homed in on it precisely enough to request an on-site inspection under the Treaty’s rules.

But the DPRK is not a treaty member. The CTBTO cannot request a thing.

the DPRK, India and Pakistan have not yet signed it.

as they just admitted

And this howler

The event’s magnitude is slightly higher than in 2006, measuring 4.52 on the Richter scale, while in 2006 it was 4.1.

the scale is logarithmic.. 2.6 times is not 'slightly higher'

The published magnitudes range from 4.5 to 4.7 to 5.0. They choose a value near the bottom.

Why not 5.0? Or 4.7?

equation used for underground tests is

M = a + b log Y
where a and b are empirically determined constants. You actually have to set off a bomb of known yield (from atmospheric tests etc) to calibrate the site and determine a and b.

for USSR Novaya Zemlya, a=4.45 and b=0.75 giving
M = 4.45 + 0.75 log Y

For M=4.7 this gives a yield Y of 2.2 kt
These constants are actually from the US Amchitka test site, assumed to be close in geology to Novaya Zemlya.

Wallace used a=4.1 and b=0.75 (USSR Semipalatinsk constants assumed by the US) for India.

Some are now using those same values for North Korea. It looks like Korea, India and Kazakhstan all have the same SDRE rocks since they all lie in Asia. TFTA rock in USA must be drastically different.

for Nevada Test Site, a=3.92 and b=0.81 giving
M = 3.92 + 0.81 log Y

Assuming M=4.7
this gives a Y of 9.2 kt

But if you choose M = 5.0, you get Y= 21.5 kt and you get 5.4kt using the Novaya Zemlya constants.

So yields range from 1.1 kt to 21.5 kt depending on the recorded M and 'empirical' constants a and b you decide to use.

These masters of geology and nukular science

Gerard · Post by **Gerard** » 26 May 2009 05:40

India takes tough stand on North Korean nuclear test

In a statement issued soon after he assumed office on Monday morning, new foreign minister S M Krishna said, "For the Democratic People's Republic of Korea to conduct such a test in violation of its international commitments would be unfortunate. Like others in the international community we are concerned at the adverse effect on peace and security in that region of such tests."

Tilak · Post by **Tilak** » 26 May 2009 05:50

Gerard wrote: the scale is logarithmic.. 2.6 times is not 'slightly higher'

The published magnitudes range from 4.5 to 4.7 to 5.0. They choose a value near the bottom.

Why not 5.0? Or 4.7?

equation used for underground tests is

M = a + b log Y
where a and b are empirically determined constants. You actually have to set off a bomb of known yield (from atmospheric tests etc) to calibrate the site and determine a and b.

for USSR Novaya Zemlya, a=4.45 and b=0.75 giving
M = 4.45 + 0.75 log Y

For M=4.7 this gives a yield Y of 2.2 kt
These constants are actually from the US Amchitka test site, assumed to be close in geology to Novaya Zemlya.

Wallace used a=4.1 and b=0.75 (USSR Semipalatinsk constants assumed by the US) for India.

Some are now using those same values for North Korea. It looks like Korea, India and Kazakhstan all have the same SDRE rocks since they all lie in Asia. TFTA rock in USA must be drastically different.

for Nevada Test Site, a=3.92 and b=0.81 giving
M = 3.92 + 0.81 log Y

Assuming M=4.7
this gives a Y of 9.2 kt

But if you choose M = 5.0, you get Y= 21.5 kt and you get 5.4kt using the Novaya Zemlya constants.

So yields range from 1.1 kt to 21.5 kt depending on the recorded M and 'empirical' constants a and b you decide to use.

These masters of geology and nukular science

Excellent post Gerard babu!. Thanks.. Grand Ayatollahs blogs are buzzing.. the general bleating seems to be around "why haven't the Russians synced their predicted their yield with that of US?".

Gerard · Post by **Gerard** » 26 May 2009 06:49

The earth tremor that said nuclear test

At 1.06am today, sensors at the British Geological Survey's stations in Devon, Herefordshire and Aberdeen picked up a tremor that registered around magnitude five on the Richter scale.

Yet it was quickly clear this was no earthquake.

"Earthquakes and nuclear bombs have quite different seismographs," said the survey's David Booth. "Earthquakes happen along fault lines and you get compression waves, known as P-waves, and shear waves from the movement. With a bomb it is mostly just compression waves meaning the seismograph is a lot less complicated."

Analysts expecttoday's test to have been carried out in a similar way to the previous one, when a horizontal hole was drilled into the side of Mount Mantab.

enqyoob · Post by **enqyoob** » 26 May 2009 06:49

The CTBTO's initial findings on the DPRK's nuclear test

Like "League of Nations Organization's findings on Iraq War".

John Snow · Post by **John Snow** » 26 May 2009 07:12

The Spin cycle has started, on MSNBC Jim Miklaszewski said that Noko device was small not weaponised and they dont have missile that can be mated with this device hence no problem for USA mainland, hence not too much to worry.

enqyoob · Post by **enqyoob** » 26 May 2009 07:39

Probably small enough to fit in a suitcase, or a briefcase carried by a Paki General returning from Pyongyang and passing it on to Abdul heading for New York. NOTHING at all 2 worry about...

Gerard · Post by **Gerard** » 26 May 2009 07:45

They have to play it down.

The Norks claimed their first test device used 2 kg of Pu. If this 2nd test is full yield 4-6 kt (probably boosted), it could be the primary for a small TN warhead (60 kt?) that would be deliverable by the Nork's stable of ballistic missiles with their small throw weight. Why else aim for a 4kt on the first test?

This must be intolerable for Japanese leaders. Would they continue to rely on the US umbrella? Public and political pressure leading to a Japanese deterrent would destroy the NPT.

John Snow · Post by **John Snow** » 26 May 2009 07:53

Gerard wrote:.

The Norks claimed this first test device used 2 kg of Pu. If this 2nd test is full yield 4-6 kt (probably boosted), it could be the primary for a small TN warhead (60 kt?) that would be deliverable by the Nork's stable of ballistic missiles with their small throw weight. Why else aim for a 4kt on the first test?

Quoting Shri bala garu for which he was chastised ruthlessly by BR guru log (I have immense respect for bala garu needless to affirm)

" just add a dollop of tritium you have your fusion" little Kim

by the way Jim is pentagon correspondent, so after all Joe Biden was right in saying this guy is going to have a international crisis on hand as soon as he swears in" on Obama. Hence the play down?

Gerard · Post by **Gerard** » 26 May 2009 07:59

With just the primary alone, they could strike the continental US with a Taepo Dong. And this might all happen on Obama's watch.

Amber G. · Post by **Amber G.** » 26 May 2009 08:16

Gerard - I can probably check my self, and learn a little but quick question... hoping to get a quick answer from you !

Do they not teach logarithms in US schools? This is what FAS has come to?

0.4 diff (4.7-4.3) in logarithm scale (that's log of amplitude - energy is ^(3/2) (from strictly theoratical point of view - of that right?) translates to about *4* times powerful (in terms of energy). Is that right?

(My rough cal - a PDQ first order appox- gives about 1.3*10^14J or 30KT for 5.0 event - same as yours. Also I would guess that 'b' in your formula should be around 2/3 (between 2/3 and 1) but that is pretty simple assumptions onlee.. what's a good reference for calibrating yield vs M?

thanks in advance.

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 26 May 2009 08:20

the US will give a strong and befitting reply to this. a procession of 'leaders' will be sent to wear out the carpet infront of Big Panda's throne begging and grovelling and doing gubo on demand.

chipanda has yet again dared unkil to do something and got away clean. now via the 'improving' Noko program
they can test advanced small yield nukes and bigger weapons too at will. they have effectively found a way
around the CTBT to keep on improving their weapons and do periodic random testing.

Gerard · Post by **Gerard** » 26 May 2009 08:47

Amber G. wrote:(that's log of amplitude - energy is ^(3/2)

Yep, energy release scales with 3/2 power of the amplitude.

How on earth can FAS and the CTBTO call a 2.6 increase in amplitude on a seismograph squiggle as "only slightly more" ?

what's a good reference for calibrating yield vs M?

The US got those constants by testing bombs aboveground and determining yield from fireball radius (crude) and sampling of the cloud (giving what percentage of fissile material underwent fission) etc. Those same models were then tested underground and the empirical constants thus determined. Their Nevada range is thus well calibrated.

The US tested a few weapons off Alaska so they could have a rough idea about the Soviet test site at Novaya Zemlya. This was the nearest they could come without testing one of their own nukes at the site (which of course was impossible). They continued to have disputes with the Soviet Union over alleged yields of Soviet tests that may or may not have broken the partial test ban treaty etc.

Unless you perform measurements at the site via drilling etc, all those seismic 'guestimates' remain just that. Who has tested one of their nukes at the Korean site? Where was the trial and error? Where are these numbers coming from? You have potential errors of several hundred percent.

The best clue we have is the alleged North Korean statement to China before the first test where they gave the desired yield of 4kt. We'll have to wait for the North Korean yield estimate to be released.

Then you have these absurd claims that weaponization has not occurred. This is based on what? The Chinese did this in 2 years, with the most primitive of computers available.
Today simulation is far more advanced and actual weaponized designs have been proliferated by the Chinese. There is much to build on.

shiv · Post by **shiv** » 26 May 2009 09:03

Gerard wrote: Their Nevada range is thus well calibrated.

But not Pokhran. Or NoKo

shiv · Post by **shiv** » 26 May 2009 09:10

Amber G. wrote:Gerard - I can probably check my self, and learn a little but quick question... hoping to get a quick answer from you !
Do they not teach logarithms in US schools? This is what FAS has come to?
0.4 diff (4.7-4.3) in logarithm scale (that's log of amplitude - energy is ^(3/2) (from strictly theoratical point of view - of that right?) translates to about *4* times powerful (in terms of energy). Is that right?

(My rough cal - a PDQ first order appox- gives about 1.3*10^14J or 30KT for 5.0 event - same as yours. Also I would guess that 'b' in your formula should be around 2/3 (between 2/3 and 1) but that is pretty simple assumptions onlee.. what's a good reference for calibrating yield vs M?

thanks in advance.

Amberji - I am a zero in maths but this topic was disccussed long ago on BRF
http://forums.bharat-rakshak.com/viewto ... 319#p21319

I quote

mb = attenuation constant + 0.75(Log of Yield)

or

mb = a + 0.75 Log Y

For this formula, "mb" is measured from the squiggle on the seismograph, and "Y" is the Yield of the nuclear test that the magic formula will reveal after you fill in the value of "a".

Now what the hell is "a"? "a" is a number that is supposed to indicate the amount by which the seismic signal of the explosion has petered out as is gets to you. The value can be anywhere from 3.9 to 4.5
(http://www.geo.arizona.edu/geophysics/f ... e/ind.pak/)

Now that is really really funny, and its called science. If some seismographs indicate a value of 5.2 for mb you apply the magic formula and get a nuclear yield of 53 kilotons if you use a value of "a" as 3.9, and the SAME NUCLEAR EXPLOSION will show a yield of only 8 kilotons if you use the value 4.5 for "a".

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 26 May 2009 09:29

Amber G. wrote:Gerard - I can probably check my self, and learn a little but quick question... hoping to get a quick answer from you !
Do they not teach logarithms in US schools? This is what FAS has come to?
0.4 diff (4.7-4.3) in logarithm scale (that's log of amplitude - energy is ^(3/2) (from strictly theoratical point of view - of that right?) translates to about *4* times powerful (in terms of energy). Is that right?

(My rough cal - a PDQ first order appox- gives about 1.3*10^14J or 30KT for 5.0 event - same as yours. Also I would guess that 'b' in your formula should be around 2/3 (between 2/3 and 1) but that is pretty simple assumptions onlee.. what's a good reference for calibrating yield vs M?

thanks in advance.

AmberG, How much for 5.5?

John Snow · Post by **John Snow** » 26 May 2009 09:41

any possibility TSP NoKo joint/co development of new device?

Added later:

Ok Fizzilists at the FAS are already saying NoKo test is without fizz.
http://www.fas.org/blog/ssp/2009/05/nktest.php

curtsey FAS.org website blog.

Kim and Kimlets

Gaurav_S · Post by **Gaurav_S** » 26 May 2009 12:16

After nuclear test, NKorea set to test-fire missiles

Gaurav_S · Post by **Gaurav_S** » 26 May 2009 12:19

Breaking news: NoKo just test fired 2 short range missiles.

IndraD · Post by **IndraD** » 26 May 2009 12:43

kya baat hai..! Poor Japan, I remember one dialogue from Die another day movie where a N Korean general is saying: Japan is a bug waiting to be squashed..!