Bharat Rakshak

The Chinese Academy of Engineering Physics asserts "we can certainly accomplish this project with nuclear explosives." Its chief planner, Professor Chen Chuanyu, described the plan to drill a 15 km tunnel through the Himalayas to divert the water before the U-turn (at Namcha Barwa) and direct it to the end of the bend.

This would shorten the approximately 3,000 meters altitude drop, from 100 km to just 15 km. The hydropower potential could be used to pump water to northwest China over 800 km away. This multi-billion dollar project is scheduled to begin in 2009.

10. Debates on Alternatives to the Western Route of South-North Water Diversion Project
Source: Sichuan Water Power (quaterly journal), Vol. 22, No.1, March 2003. Courtesy of Kevin Li.

An article on counter-proposals for the Western Route of the South-North Water Diversion project criticizes current plans favored by the Ministry of Water Resources as seriously reducing Sichuan Province's hydropower generation capacity for the future dam cascades on Jinsha (Chinese name for upper Yangtze, or Drichu), Yalong (Ngagchu), and Dadu (Gyarong Ngulchu).
Two alternative schemes, transferring water from Tsangpo (Brahmaputra) are proposed: west-to-east and west-to-north. The west-to-east proposal transfers water from Bramaputra to the Three Gorges dam, via Nujiang (upper Salween, or Gyalmo Ngulchu), Lancang (upper Mekong, or Zachu), Jinsha and Yalong River, so as to enrich the water sources for eastern and central route projects. The west-to-north proposal transfers water from Bramaputra to Yellow River (Machu), through a number of dam projects on Bramaputra, Salween, Mekong rivers, and a number of tunnels going through the mountains.

chaanakya wrote:To initiate

India will not accept any plans by China to divert the Brahmaputra river waters, Minister of State for Environment and Forests Jairam Ramesh said here on Sunday even as he urged the Government of India to expedite hydel projects along the river in Arunachal Pradesh.

China is building a 540 MW ‘run of the river' power generation project on the Yarlung Tsangpo, as the Brahmaputra is known in Tibet. While there are, at present, no plans to divert the river, Mr. Ramesh warned that any project “would be difficult for India to accept.”

“The great fear in India has been that China would divert waters from the Brahmaputra to feed its arid southwest region, thereby impacting India as a middle riparian [country on the middle reaches of the river],” he told journalists. “It would be very difficult [to accept diversion plans] both politically and also ecologically, particularly because of Arunachal Pradesh and Assam. And not only India, but also Bangladesh as a lower riparian would be badly affected.”

Last month, Chinese officials, for the first time, provided information to India over its plans to build a hydel power project at Zangmu in Tibet. Officials said the dam was a ‘run of the river' power project, and neither involved plans for storage nor diversion. “A 540 MW ‘run of the river' should not be cause for great concern, as much as a storage dam [would be],” Mr. Ramesh said

The Chinese government has, however, spoken of plans to divert the river's waters as part of a $ 62- billion “South-to-North Water Diversion” project. Work has not yet begun on the project, which has been mired in delays over safety concerns and rising costs. Chinese officials told External Affairs Minister S.M. Krishna during his visit here last month that the government had no plans to divert the river.

The real concern for India, Mr. Ramesh said, was the absence of any water-sharing agreement to regulate any future use of the river's waters. “We don't have a water-sharing treaty,” he said. “But we have now begun the process of discussions on the exchange of hydrological data. This is the first step forward.” India needed to continue discussing the water issue with the China, he said, adding the process was “going to be slow-going.”

“The answer to this [problem] also lies in India expediting its hydro projects in the Brahmaputra basin,” he said. “India needs to be much more aggressive in implementing its own hydel projects… so that our negotiation position vis-à-vis China improves.”

Besides hydrological data, sharing information on glaciers remains another sensitive issue between the two governments.

Mr. Ramesh was scheduled to sign an agreement on glaciological data during his visit here in September, but reservations on the Chinese side, sources said, reportedly delayed the deal. He, however, said, “bureaucratic reasons” delayed the agreement.

For many months the fact that China was building a dam in Zangmu was known and photographs were circulating on the Internet. Why did India take up the matter with China so warily? Claude Arpi on the dangers of China's dams on the Brahmaputra in Tibet.

In October 2003, I wrote an article Diverting the Brahmaputra: a Declaration of War. At the time, I was told that it was a cheap journalistic gimmick; there was no 'scientific' proof!

My question then was: "What is the rationale for the project?" My answer was that the two most acute problems faced by China were food and water.

Seven years later, these issues are more acute than ever: Water is a rarer commodity in China and agriculture needs more water to sustain the increasing requirements of a wealthier population.

Twenty years ago, this led Chinese experts to look around for water. The answer was not far: Tibet is the water tower of Asia. About 90 per cent of the Tibetan rivers runoff flows downstream to China, India, Bangladesh, Nepal, Pakistan, Thailand, Burma, Laos, Cambodia and Vietnam.

Thus the idea to use Tibet's waters for Northern China was born.

One of the possibilities was to divert waters from the Great Bend of the Yarlung Tsangpo, north of the McMahon Line, by building a mega structure. There are different versions of the project, but the Shuotian Canal is the most elaborated. It is the brainchild of an engineer, Guo Kai, whose life mission is to save China with Tibet's waters.

Guo not only worked closely with experts from the Chinese ministry of water resources and the academy of sciences, but he also made several on-the-spot investigations and surveys, before coming up with the details of his pharaonic scheme.

From the start the Chinese military have shown a lot of interest in Guo's Great Western Route scheme. In November 2005, the Great Western Route project got a boost with the publication of a book entitled Save China Through Water From Tibet, written by a Li Ling; the writer used Guo's theme and arguments.

In November 2006, Chinese Minister for Water Resources Wang Shucheng categorically stated that the proposal was 'unnecessary, unfeasible and unscientific.' He, however, admitted: 'There may be some retired officials that support the plan, but they are not the experts advising the government.' It was not a point blank denial as he admitted that the project existed. As we know, governments change, so do their advisors.

According to available information, the Chinese plan to build a series of five dams in the Shannan Prefecture (Lhoka) of Tibet at Zangmu, Gyatsa, Zhongda, Jiexu and Langzhen.The Zangmu dam will be the first to be built. At an altitude of 3,260 metres, it is expected to generate 540 MW of electricity; its height will be 116 metres and length 390 metres, it will have a width of 19 metres wide at the top and 76 m at the bottom. The 26 turbines dam would cost 1.138 billion yuan.
ndia and China have no water-sharing agreements. A meeting of experts from India and China took place between April 26 and 29, 2010 in Delhi to discuss the issue of sharing information on the Brahmaputra and the Sutlej. Hopefully the outcome will be made public. Indian and Chinese water experts have apparently inked an 'implementation plan' to share hydrological data on the Sutlej and Brahmaputra rivers.

One of the main problems is that some Indian intellectuals (this word is not appropriate, because according to me, they lack intellect), believe that the Chinese 'are our friends' (if not brothers) and India cannot afford a conflict with the Middle Kingdom.

There was recently a talk at a reputed Indian think-tank in Delhi with the main Indian 'expert' arguing that even if the Brahmaputra is diverted, it will only be a mere 30 per cent of its waters which will be lost to India and Bangladesh, with no consequence for these countries. Frightful.

One can understand what is going to happen to India and Bangladesh (whether it is a diversion or simply a string of dams) when one looks at the fate of the Mekong. The 4,350 km river has its source on the Tibetan Plateau. It flows downstream to the Yunnan province of China, Myanmar, Laos, Thailand, Cambodia and Vietnam. During recent months, a severe draught has been experienced in the Yunnan province of China and the Indochinese peninsula.

The problem has been compounded by the fact that China has built several dams on the upper reaches of the Mekong river without consulting its neighbours. Environmental NGOs in the peninsula, however, blame China for 'drying' the Mekong and provoking the crisis. China, a dialogue partner of the commission, took the 'attack' seriously and sent a delegation led by Vice-Foreign Minister Song Tao to a two-day conference of the Mekong Commission in Thailand.

Last but not the least, there is a strong lobby in India which wants to build dams in Arunachal Pradesh. Ask any Arunachali minister, he will tell you: 'We are the richest Indian state, we will soon 'sell' 50,000 MW of electricity to India". The Assam Tribune recently reported: '(Arunachal Home Minister) Tako Dabi said international circles that did not want India to become energy efficient by tapping its natural resources had been behind such popular movements that were voicing opposition to the construction of mega dams like the one in Gerukamukh and the Dibang valley.'

Airavat wrote:Couldn't find the Central Asia thread, but posting here to explore possibilities of cooperation between India and Central Asian countries on water issues:
Water shortage in Tajikistan

Considering that Tajikistan's glaciers feed some 50% of the rivers in Central Asia, any drop in the water supply could have severe implications across the entire region. Water resources have already been a source of disagreement between the region's upstream countries, such as Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan, and downstream Uzbekistan. Dwindling water supplies could bring a rise in tensions.

There are enormous economic issues at stake. Tajikistan hopes to boost its bankrupt economy and resolve its longstanding energy crisis by drawing on its immense wealth of rivers to generate hydroelectric power. Any drop in water volumes could put the country's plans to become an energy exporter in jeopardy. It's not only people who stand to suffer from climate change.

Oghonazarov says many rare species of animals and plants could face extinction. "I can speak in concrete numbers. In the recent past, there were, on average, 10-15 wild plants per square meter. Now, that number has decreased by 20-25%," he says. "Around residential areas, the amount of grass and plants - the primary source of food for grazing animals - has decreased by up to 40% due to water shortages."

Tajikistan has stationed dozens of scientists in Badakhshan to monitor the effects of climate change to the area's flora and fauna. They keep a close eye on melting glaciers, but stopping or reducing the pace of climate change is beyond their control.

But the research, published yesterday in Science, found that the shrinking glaciers will have less of an impact on Asia's freshwater supply than estimated in the last report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.

They found that the role of meltwater varied widely from basin to basin.

"We show that meltwater is extremely important in the Indus basin and important for the Brahmaputra basin," they wrote, "but plays only a modest role for the Ganges, Yangtze and Yellow rivers."
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According to their study, warming will eventually lessen the amount of meltwater that flows into each river from glaciers, and it will affect patterns of rain and snowfall -- both the amount of precipitation and its seasonal timing.

"The effects in the Indus and Brahmaputra basins are likely to be severe," they write, "owing to the large population and the high dependence on irrigated agriculture and meltwater."

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In the Indus basin, for example, they conclude that meltwater supplies nearly one and a half times more water than does rainfall downstream. But in the Brahmaputra basin, meltwater contributes a quarter of the water supplied by downstream rains.


The scientists estimate that between 28 million and 41 million people in the Brahmaputra river basin could face more trouble securing the food they need. But at the opposite end of the spectrum is the Yellow River, the only of five basins the study suggests could support a higher population thanks to future climate change.

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(a) & (b) : No specific information is available regarding plan of China to divert water from Brahmaputra river. However, there have been reports in the media that China plans to construct hydro power projects on Brahmaputra river and to divert its water. But Chinese Government has been officially denying since 2000 that it proposes to dam/divert waters of Brahmaputra.
A Technical Group headed by Member (D&R), Central Water Commission (CWC) was constituted to study the implication of possible diversion of Brahmaputra water by China. In its report, the Technical Group has observed the matter as under:


(i) `China plans to divert approximately 40 billion cubic meter waters of Yalung Zangbo (Brahmaputra) to Chinese North-western province of Xiangjiang and Gansu (Gobi Desert). According to China 160 billion cubic meter of water is available annually in Brahmaputra. Diversion would be through a carrier system of 800 km. in length to irrigate arid regions of upper Yellow river where there is scarcity of water.

(ii) The proposal takes advantage of a hair pin bend in the river with a drop of about 2225 meters in a distance of 40 km. for generating 40,000 MW of power. The proposed location is near Doxong (Doshong of Bujialacong in Chinese on our maps) at an altitude of 2880 m above MSL just before the South westward hair pin bend`.

(c) & (d) : No specific study has been made to assess the impact of the proposed diversion of water by China on Hydro Power Projects in India being constructed by Jayaprakash Hydro Power Ltd., and other developers. It is, however, apprehended that in the event of diversion of water from Brahmaputra river (known as Siang in Arunachal Pradesh) by China, power generation from various hydro electric schemes identified on Siang river (mainstream) is likely to be adversely affected, especially during lean flow months.

China’s proposed Yarlung-Tsangpo hydroelectric scheme is intended to generate 40,000 MW, even more electricity than the 39 dams proposed in Arunachal Pradesh. It is to be sited in what’s known as the ‘great bend’ of the river at Namcha Barwa in Eastern Tibet, a point where the river drops 3000 m in 200 km. This is a location long known by engineers as a site with unrivaled potential for hydroelectricity.

China also proposes to divert large, but so far not publicly divulged, quantities of water from the Tsangpo several hundred kilometers to Xinjiang and Giansu. One source (Tsering 2002) describes the potential for conflict between China and its downstream neighbors:

This project represents a direct threat to the water security of people living downstream in India and Bangladesh… Precipitation in the region is “too much” (80%) during the four monsoon months (between June to September), and “too little” (20%) for the remaining eight months.84 China will withhold water for power generation and irrigation during the dry season, but would be compelled to release water during the flood season. Diversion of large quantities of water to China’s northwest would be even more devastating for farmers and fishermen downstream

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SSridhar wrote:Ties & Troubled Waters - Brahma Chellaney

New evidence from China indicates that, as part of its planned diversion of the waters of the Brahmaputra, preparations are afoot to start work on the world's biggest dam at the river's so-called Great Bend, located at Tibet's corner with north-eastern India. The dam, by impounding water on a gargantuan scale, will generate, according to a latest map of planned dams put up on its website by the state-run Hydro China, 38,000 megawatts of power, or more than twice the capacity of the Three Gorges Dam. Such is its scale that this new dam will by itself produce the equivalent of 25 per cent of India's current installed electricity generation capacity from all sources.

In March 2009, the chairman of the Tibetan regional government unveiled plans for major new dams on the Brahmaputra. A series of six big dams will come up in the upper-middle reaches of the Brahmaputra, to the south-east of Lhasa, with construction of the first ^ Zangmu ^ having begun in 2009 itself. As part of this cascade, four other new dams will come up downstream from Zangmu at Jiacha, Lengda, Zhongda and Langzhen. The sixth, at Jiexu, is upstream to Zangmu. This cascade is in addition to more than a dozen smaller dams that China has already built on the Brahmaputra and its tributaries, including at Yamdrok Tso, Pangduo, Nyingtri-Payi and Drikong.

The most ominous plan China is pursuing is the one to reroute a sizable chunk of the Brahmaputra waters northwards at the Great Bend, the point where the river makes a sharp turn to enter India, creating in the process a canyon larger and deeper than the Grand Canyon in the US. The rapid infrastructure work in this area is clearly geared at such water diversion and hydropower generation. In fact, a new Chinese state grid map showing that the Great Bend area will soon be connected to the rest of China's power supply is a pointer to the impending launch of work on the mammoth dam there

Through its giant projects in Tibet, China is actually set to acquire the capability to fashion water as a political weapon against India. Such a weapon can be put to overt use in war or employed subtly in peacetime so that the level of cross-border water flows becomes a function of political concession.

With China determined to exploit its riparian dominance, New Delhi's self-injurious acceptance of Tibet as part of China is becoming more apparent. Just as India has retreated to an increasingly defensive position territorially, with the spotlight on China's Tibet-linked claim to Arunachal Pradesh than on Tibet's status itself, New Delhi's policy straitjacket precludes an Indian diplomatic campaign against Beijing's dam-building projects. Accepting Tibet and the developments there as China's "internal" affairs has proven a huge misstep that will continue to exact increasing costs. A bold, forward-looking leadership, though, can rectify any past mistake before it becomes too late.

Roy Barman cited media reports that said Beijing was planning a $167 million hydropower plant in Zangmu, 140 km southeast of Tibet's capital Lhasa, besides diverting water to its dry northwest and northeast provinces which include the Gobi desert.

The 2,906-km-long Brahmaputra is one of Asia's largest rivers that flows the first stretch of 1,625 km in China's Tibet region, the next 918 km in India and the remaining 363 km through Bangladesh, before converging into the Bay of Bengal.

According to media reports, China was planning to divert 200 billion cubic metres of water to feed the Yellow River in an attempt at easing acute water shortage in Shaanxi, Hebei, Beijing and Tianjin.

The Brahmaputra is the lifeline for a vast majority of the people in Arunachal Pradesh, Assam and Bangladesh. Most of them depend on the river to irrigate their fields, fishing and transportation of goods.

Earlier, Assam and Arunachal Pradesh governments also protested China's reported move to construct a dam over the Brahmaputra and sought Prime Minister Manmohan Singh's intervention in the matter.

Floods in China have killed at least 155 people since April and made over a million homeless even though the massive Three Gorges Dam was supposed to prevent such catastrophes. China’s latest and even bigger project, to divert water from the south to the north, is not likely to work either: like many countries, China needs more local rights and fewer vainglorious schemes.

China is pressing ahead with a massive $62-billion South-to-North Water Diversion Project despite high costs, environmental and social threats and early setbacks. It experiences regular shortages, depletion of groundwater and high pollution (frequently covered up by officials) from industry, farming and sewage. This year millions suffered acute drought in southern China. The ministry of environmental protection admits that 70% of China’s rivers and lakes are polluted. Northern China has almost half the country’s 1.3 billion population but only 15% of its fresh water.

So the new project would transfer billions of cubic metres a year from the Yangtze River by three routes, across hundreds of miles, to the thirsty north. Proposed by Chairman Mao, the project was launched only in 2002 and met immediate opposition.

The western route—on hold following widespread protests—would cross five fault lines, including the epicentre of the 2008 Sichuan earthquake, which killed over 70,000. It also threatens India’s and Bangladesh’s dependence on rivers downstream, including the Brahmaputra. Tianjin, a city on the eastern route, has already rejected the potential new supply as too polluted. Enlarging the Danjiangkou Reservoir on the central route will expel 3,00,000 people. Details are still secret but the seven planned dams are expected to flood and destroy towns, cultural monuments and ecosystems, evicting more people.

The Three Gorges Dam, the most grandiose and expensive scheme to date, cost $37 billion, flooded 13 cities, hundreds of towns and thousands of villages, ejecting 1.3 million people (as officially admitted). Cracks appeared before it was completed in 2006 and continues to cause fissures and landslides nearby. The costs and problems of the diversion project are much bigger. These colossal, high-risk projects cannot fix China’s water problems: it must reconsider its whole approach and decentralise control of water.

A few small improvements over the past decade have allowed some collective management and transfer of water rights between users but, overwhelmingly, water-use remains inefficient because it is ruled by politics—not supply and demand. The North China Plain, one of the driest areas, also produces half of China’s wheat, ..

Bangladesh is going to face water shortage and its cumulative impacts in next two decades as China and India will build over 200 big and small dams on the Himalayan rivers Yangtze, Brahmaputra and Gages to meet their growing water needs.

Building such dams will alter flow of Bangladesh rivers in dry season, says an international study on water budget of four Himalayan and sub-Himalayan countries -- Bangladesh, China, India and Nepal.

A decrease in water supply by up to 22 percent in next two decades, rise in sea level and increase in population might push Bangladesh to the risks of food insecurity, outbreak of water-borne diseases and loss of biodiversity, says the report styled "The Himalayan Challenge -- Water Security in Emerging Asia".

Many dams will be built in the Himalayan sub-regions as the countries will be working to safeguard their interests, states the report, which might be released today in Singapore.

China alone has already developed plans to construct over 200 dams to add to its existing 26,000 big and small ones.

India has recently set up a panel to study alternatives to tap the Brahmaputra to strengthen its claims over the river's tributaries, since there have been reports that China plans to divert those.

The report briefly says around 25 new dams are planned for the Ganges and Brahmaputra rivers.

Constructing big dams in an earthquake-prone region on a trans-boundary river would be alarming, especially as there is no water-sharing treaty between India and China.

With the region facing a threat of water shortage, the report speculates "this could lead to a conflict between India and China".

Examining water needs and supplies from the Himalayan rivers in Bangladesh, China, India and Nepal for next two decades, the report states that 275 billion cubic metre (BCM) fresh water would decline, which amounts to more than the current waters available in Nepal.

For betterment of the four countries, the report suggests collaboration on the management of the Ganges and Brahmaputra river basins under an umbrella of Himalayan River Commission and working together to facilitate basin-wide water development.

The report states that demand of water will increase due to economic development and increase in population, resulting in a decline in per capita water supply from 2,150 to 1,860 cubic metre in China, from 1,730 to 1,240 CM in case of India, from 7,320 to 5,700 CM in case of Bangladesh, and from 8,500 to 5,500 CM in Nepal in 2030.

In the second half of this century, the Yellow River in China and the Ganges [with her tributes] in India will be the most affected and turn into seasonal rivers as the glacial melting will eventually reduce river flow in the low season due to climate change, the report says.

At present, the agricultural sector in China consumes nearly 65 percent of its total water supply, which will reduce to 55 percent. On the other hand, 90 percent water is used for agriculture in India which is likely to reduce to 75 percent by 2050.

Both India and China face drops in the yield of wheat and rice by at least 30 percent by 2050, while their demands will increase by 20 percent.

So, the Asian powerhouses will need to import more than 200-300 million tonnes of wheat and rice, pushing up prices of these commodities in the international market, the reports predicts.

The report prepared by the Strategic Foresight Group is set to be released today at an international workshop in Singapore on river basins management in presence of the water resources ministers from the Asia Pacific.

The National Water policies in Bangladesh, China, India and Nepal must incorporate further emphasis on conservation, says the report, which The Daily Star has received in advance.

Though problems arising from water security are essentially internal, solutions need to be in the form on trans-boundary and sub-regional cooperation, says the executive summary of the report.

Sharing water of transboundary rivers properly is related to social and economic development as well as human security, speakers said at a discussion yesterday.

They also emphasised the need for 'sincere diplomacy' to convince the 'mighty neighbour India' to work together in river basin management.

They also said that the past governments have discussed the issue with India for years without any fruitful result.

The Bangladesh Institute of International Strategic Studies (BIISS) organised the panel discussion on 'Management of Water Resources and Water Security: the Case of the Ganges-Brahmaputra-Meghna (GBM) River Basins' at its auditorium.

Mentioning China's initiatives to construct dams and divert water of Brahmaputra as a matter of concern for both Bangladesh and India, the speakers said that India, for the first time, has realised the problems facing a lower riparian country like Bangladesh.


He called for changes in the mindset in order to enhance cooperation among the countries of the GBM region.

Mentioning different plans of actions adopted at different regional forums, including SAARC summit, the secretary said collective efforts are needed to make the best use of natural resources for common interest.

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Stan_Savljevic wrote:Bhutan dams may have negative impact on State
http://www.assamtribune.com/scripts/det ... y0310/at09

The river Puthimari and Beki are rising alarmingly following release of water reportedly from the Kurichu dam in neighbouring Bhutan. The overflowing waters of the rivers have submerged more than a hundred villages in Kamrup, Nalbari, Barpeta and Baksa districts. Affected people are moving to safer places.
The surging waters of the Ranganadi, Singara, Pabhoi and the Gendali rivers have inundated as many as 43 villages in Naoboicha in Lakhimpur district affecting nearly 50 thousand people and damaging standing crops to a greater extent.
The worst affected districts are Lakhimpur and Jorhat in Upper Assam and the situation was turning worse in several other districts, officials said. More than 70 villages have been inundated in Lakhimpur by the rising waters of Ranganadi, Dikroi, Kakoi and Singra, all tributaries of the Brahmpautra and the worst affected are the villages under the Naoboicha revenue circle, they said.
In Jorhat district, Brahmaputra’s tributary Saraikoni river has breached two embankments under Titabor sub-division inundating 40 villages including 15 schools and a sattra (vaishnav monastery).

BEIJING, June 29 (Xinhua) -- The delay of the South-to-North Water Diversion Project is accelerating the water crisis in China's capital, where 17.55 million people are overdrawing inadequate supplies, Tuesday's China Daily quoted experts as saying.

The project was planned to transfer 1 billion cubic meters of water to the capital in 2010, but its completion has been postponed until 2014.

According to Beijing's urban planning design (2004-2020), the city's annual water demand will be 4 to 5 billion cubic meters by 2020. The water diversion project will transfer at least 1 billion cubic meters of water every year.

The diversion project is designed to transfer water from the country's wet south to the drought-prone north along three routes (eastern, central and western), with most of it coming from the Yangtze River.

Officials have said the eastern route will eventually be able to annually transfer about 15 billion cubic meters of water and the central route will be able to send 13 billion to 14 billion cubic meters north each year.

The central route of the project is designed to divert water from Danjiangkou Reservoir on Hanjiang River, the largest tributary of the Yangtze, to north China cities like Beijing and Tianjin.

Guo said the canal project will bring water from Jingjiang River, another Yangtze's tributary, to Hanjiang. The canal will have a maximum diversion ability of 500 cubic meters per second.

XIANGFAN, Hubei, June 1 (Xinhua) -- Moving water from the Yangtze River across half of China to its parched north is a massive technical undertaking -- but authorities are finding a greater challenge in resettling the people whose homes are in the path of the project.

The water will be diverted via three routes: eastern, middle and western. The middle route alone involves relocating about 330,000 people in central China's Hubei and Henan provinces.

Hubei announced a successful trial relocation of 12,000 migrants May 24. The trial took nine months.

But with plans to relocate 31,293 people by Aug. 31, signs of discontent are already leaking through the cracks of a massive social program to relocate them.

To demonstrate the problems they face, Hubei relocation authorities Monday outlined their policies to help migrants, including:

-- A grant of 0.1 hectare (1.6 mu) of land per person compared with the provincial average of 0.05 hectare.

-- An annual subsidy of 600 yuan (87.84 U.S. dollars) per household for 20 years.

-- Free vocational training, favorable employment policies and a pension scheme.

-- Compensation for their fixed assets above-market rates.

-- A free biogas pit to convert human and livestock waste into methane gas for each household.

SACRIFICES

However, much of the compensation is not as valuable as it appears, say some migrants.

Relocated migrant Zhang Yonglong is resigned to his fate, but not happy about it. "We have to make sacrifices for the greater good," he admitted.

Zhang, who is waiting for his new home to be built, said he received more than 124,000 yuan (18,155 U.S. dollars) for his 1.4-hectare orange grove and more than 90,000 yuan for his old building back in his hometown Jiangju village, Danjiangkou City.

Zhang's 178-square-meter new home in Gucheng County sits in the center of the county, an hour's drive from his hometown near Danjiangkou Reservoir.

The cost of Zhang's house was about 630 yuan per square meter, but it was resold to Zhang at around 520 yuan a meter with a government subsidy, said a Gucheng government spokesman.

In the old town, Zhang said, his orange grove earned him more than 50,000 yuan a year, and he could make a living from fishing, growing traditional medicine herbs and raising livestock.

Now he had 0.1 hectare of flat land that he had no clue how to plow. Even if he did, it would earn far less than his orange grove. Local farmers say a plot of its size would normally bring 3,600 yuan a year, 5,000 at most.

"Though the compensation package, which is worth more than 240,000 yuan, is fairly handsome, my income from the orange grove was stable and lasted for generations," Zhang said.

The oranges produced near the Danjiangkou Reservoir were a prized export to Japan, Korea and Russia.

It took time for the migrants, who mostly lived on the mountains, to get accustomed to life and work in their new homes. The government was working hard to help them get familiar with new skills and the environment, said Xu Tengfang, the provincial relocation official.

Some officials and local residents say the migrants are exaggerating their incomes to bargain for more favorable polices.

"It's human nature to think of what's lost as the most precious. It's also human nature to speak for one's own benefit," said Li Guangxian, a relocation official in Xiangfan, Hubei's second largest city.

REBUILDING LIVES

But for others, it's not just about money.

Wang Li, 30, and her parents are to be moved from Wudang Mountain, a world cultural heritage site and sacred Taoist mountain.

"We love our tranquil life here," Wang said. Her wood-brick house on lower Wudang Mountain is sheltered by tall trees and faces a vast stretch of water.

Taoism is part of Wang's life. She visits the Taoist monasteries and listens to the preaching of monks at least once a week. But she worries most about her parents who have lived on Wudang Mountain for decades.

"My parents are so used to living in harmony and unity with nature, as promoted in Taoist philosophy. I wonder if they can fit into the worldly environment at the resettlement site."

Provincial authorities Monday insisted they were doing their best to accommodate the migrants.

"We do not force the people to move; we persuade them by trying hard to meet their demands and relieve their worries," said Xu Tengfang, a spokesman for Hubei's relocation authorities. ( persuasion as in Tienanmein square)

Xu said the migrants, mostly farmers, generally had better and bigger homes, more land, better infrastructure and brighter prospects after relocation.

LEADING THE WAY

Hubei Vice Governor Tian Chengzhong said the provincial government would help at least one member of each relocated family to find a job as long as he or she was willing and fit to work.

The families were resettled in more developed areas near cities or roads with better access to jobs, markets, schools and hospitals, he said.

In Hubei, about 180,000 people are to be relocated by 2014 when the water level of Danjiangkou Reservoir and the Hanjiang River, from which water will be diverted, will rise from 157 meters to 170 meters.

About 80,000 people will have to leave their counties, which involves more changes in life, work and environment.

"I can promise that the 80,000 migrants, who have to leave their hometowns, will lead Hubei's 30 million farmers in improving their incomes, living conditions and long-term well-being," Tian said

"We succeeded in persuading the people to relocate by listening to their demands. And that makes the relocation humane," Tian said.

Hubei offered a choice of 519 resettlement sites, enough for 130,000 people, Wang Yuanliang, head of the provincial relocation bureau said. "In principle, they can live where they choose."

A committee of elected representatives voted for the villagers in choosing the sites. Their losses from the relocation were also taken into consideration in arranging the sites, Wang said.

The government invited a member of each family to visit the sites to check the resettlement conditions before making the choice. They also had a say in the size and design of the homes, he said.

The buildings within a site are mostly the same. The designs are collectively decided by the villagers through a vote. Most of the houses are one or two-storey buildings.

In a new resettlement site in Gucheng County, the relocated villagers voted for buildings in a traditional style usually seen in east China's Anhui Province.

"Villagers, not the government, sign contracts with the builders. They are the employers who made the final decision. The government acts as consultant," Wang said.

Members of each family took turns to oversee construction work in makeshift shelters in the sites. The local government provided free meals and accommodation.

The quality of the homes was jointly inspected by provincial, municipal and county authorities. Village representatives were invited to witness the whole inspection process, Wang said.

NEW NEIGHBORS

However, many of their new neighbors say the government is being "way too generous", including a 60-year-old local woman farmer under the alias of Yang Chunhua.

Yang's family of four worked a 0.93-hectare plot before half of it was transferred to the migrants.

The land, which was leased to state-run Zhangluogang commune, was purchased back by the local government at the price of 23,000 yuan every 0.1 hectare, Yang Zhiyong, head of Xiangfan's relocation authorities, said.

"The farmers were not entitled to the payment because they had no rights on the land."

As employees and retirees of the commune, they were duly paid salaries and pensions, and their crops were purchased by the commune at fair prices, local relocation official Li Guangxian said.

From the 0.93-hectare land, Yang Chunhua's family used to earn 1,400 yuan per month. "With that much land, we still could not afford our son's college tuition. How can we live with just 0.47-hectare of land?

"The land is life to us, but it's nothing for the migrants."

Yang Chunhua said the migrants, who came in March, did not like the place and were mostly living elsewhere, leaving the houses and land idle.

"Less than 10 families have resettled in a community of 41 houses. What a waste."

An official with the Xiangfan municipal relocation department said the houses were empty because the migrants had gone back to their old places, which were yet to be submerged, to harvest oranges and other produce.

Most of the houses had no interior decorations or furniture.

Some migrants bought properties near their hometowns and moved back, leaving parts of the resettlement empty, Li Guangxian, the local relocation official said.

Right next to the rows of villa-like empty homes is a two-room unpainted building haphazardly piled up with bricks on a patch of uneven black soil -- home to Yang Chunhua and her husband.

"Everyone cares about the migrants, who cares about us?"

The South-to-North Water Diversion Project is divided into three projects: the western route project, the middle route project and the eastern route project, which will divert water from the upper reaches, middle reaches and lower reaches of the Yangtze River, respectively, to northwest and north China.

The eastern route project—1,857 km—will be constructed in three stages to divert water from Jiangdu and Yangzhou on the lower reaches of the Yangtze River to the Tianjin Municipality, as well as Jinan, Yantai and Weihai in Shandong Province.

The middle route project—1,431.95 km—will be constructed in two stages to divert water from Danjiangkou Reservoir to Beijing and Tianjin.

The western route project will be constructed in three stages to divert water from the Yangtze River to the Yellow River by building dams on the Tongtian River on the upper reaches of the Yangtze River and two branches of the Yangtze River: Yalong River and Dadu River. The project is designed to ease water shortage in six provinces and autonomous regions on the upper and middle reaches of the Yellow River, including Qinghai, Gansu, Ningxia, Inner Mongolia, Shaanxi and Shanxi.

At present, the first stages of the eastern and middle route projects are in progress. The first stage of the eastern route project will divert water from the lower reaches of the Yangtze River to Dongping Lake of Shandong Province, which is scheduled to be completed in 2013. The first stage of the middle route project will be completed in 2014, comprising a water source and water diversion trunk line project, a harness project for the Hanjiang River and the Danjiangkou Reservoir transformation project.

The western route project is still in the design and appraisal phase.

On July 17, 2003 the
People's Daily had published a small item “China to Conduct Feasibility Study
on Hydropower Project in Tibet” It ran thus: “China plans to conduct a
feasibility study in October on the construction of a major hydropower
project on the Yarlung Zangbo River, in the Tibet Autonomous Region… an
expert team [was sent] to the area for preliminary work between late June
and early July. The Chinese section of the river, 2,057 kilometers long,
boasts a water energy reserve of about 100 million kilowatts, or one sixth of
the country's total, ranking second behind the Yangtze River. The location for
the possible hydropower plant is the U-shaped turn of the river in the
southeastern part of Tibet. The river drops by 2,755 meters in the 500
kilometer-long "U" section.”
The cat is out of the bag, though very few people have noticed it.

http://www.book-of-thoth.com/article1133.html
Communism promised the peoples of China and Tibet a practicable earthly paradise. Yet railways, oil and gas pipelines, petrochemical complexes, hydroelectric dams, military bases, and new cities for migrants from mainland China have had a negative impact on much of Tibet's environment and culture. A dam in the heart of the Tsangpo Gorge would destroy an ecosystem that inspired one of the world's most enduring legends - the "wild dream of Shangri-La" described in James Hilton's novel and anticipated in ancient Tibetan scrolls that, like the papyrus texts of the Gnostic Christians, had been secreted away in clay urns and caverns. The dream is all the more poignant as the nations of the world strengthen - as Hilton wrote - "not in wisdom, but in vulgar passions and the will to destroy".

Even as India and Pakistan tussle over shared River waters and even as water threatens to become the next ‘core’ issue between the two countries, another region in the vicinity is emerging as an area of contention; India-China. When it comes to water issues, what India is to Pakistan, China is to India- an upper riparian, who has the ‘potential’ power to disrupt water flows into the lower riparian, in the former case, Pakistan and in the latter case, India.

Analysts have gone as far as attributing China’s intransigence on Tibet to its need for securing water resources. The Tibetan Plateau is the headwaters for many of Asia’s rivers including the Yellow, Yangtze, the Brahmaputra, Indus and Sutlej. China’s water resources are dwindling and it is expected to fall short of its water demands by 25 per cent by 2030; quite similar to the disputed region of Jammu and Kashmir between India and Pakistan. The six major rivers of the Indus basin have their head source in Kashmir.

Asia is a region that is home to two of the fastest growing economies of the world, India and China and as reserves of oil dwindle, pressure on alternative sources like hydro power is only expected to mount. A very important aspect that colours the water debate in the region is the political relationship between the countries in the region. Right from India and Pakistan, India and Bangladesh, India and Nepal to India and China, relations between the countries are anything but smooth. Water only adds to the plethora of problems that these countries already face like border issues, issue of migrants, cross border infiltration and trafficking etc.

India and China are the leading economies in the region and hence also the ones that are likely to dispute over the water issue, especially over the Brahmaputra which originates in Tibet. India and China’s positions on Tibet are well established, but the water issue adds another potential area of confrontation between the two. China has two major plans on the Tsang-Po (Brahmaputra in India). One is the Zangmu project in Tibet, which is essentially a ‘run of the river’ hydel power generation project which is not of much concern to India. The real worry is China’s ambitious plans to divert water from the south to the arid north along three major routes. One of the routes is from the Brahmaputra and involves building a dam on the ‘great bend’ of the Brahmaputra and this would impact both India and Bangladesh and millions of people who depend on the waters of this river for their livelihood. This would also impact India’s own National River Linking Project (NRLP), which entails diverting the waters of the North to the South. The Brahmaputra accounts for 29% of the total run-off all India’s rivers and its waters are central to the success of the NRLP.

China, nevertheless maintains that it has no plans to divert the waters of the Brahmaputra. In his visit to Beijing, earlier this year, External Affairs Minister, SM Krishna was given assurances by his Chinese counterpart that the dam it was building on the Tsang Po would not affect the flow of water of the Brahmaputra. However, considering China’s usual reluctance to share information and the absence of a water sharing treaty between the two, this becomes a major concern for India. Beijing had even denied the Zangmu project for a long time, before finally accepting to it last year. India should continue to insist on regular data hydrological data sharing and satellite imaging to obviate any confrontation later.

India and China water issues also highlight another issue; the basic insecurity that any lower riparian feels at the strategic muscle of the upper riparian. The upper riparian, if it desires, can use its control of the water source as a potential weapon. This provides a context to Pakistan’s insecurity with India. Even though India has always adhered to the Indus Water Treaty, its control of the water sources creates immense panic in Pakistan. This panic can be reduced by creating joint structures for cooperation. Water is invariably going to emerge as a banner issues in Asia, with two of the fastest developing economies situated in the region. One way that this insecurity can be mitigated is by initiating joint projects in water management. India and China need to think of a sharing mechanism, if not a joint treaty. The countries could work on alternatives to big hydro-electric projects, which have negative ecological impact, and also focus on water conservation. Other areas include energy swaps and replacing wasteful irrigation methods by more efficient ones like drip irrigation.

It is important to bear in mind that any solution to the water issue will have to be regional and cutting across the different countries in Asia because unless all the affected countries have a stake in the decision, it will not be sustainable. Keeping this in mind, greater importance should be given to basin wide cooperation on water management. Protection of water sources, improving and maintaining water quality, issues of drainage, flood control, water harvesting and watershed management are some potential areas where cooperation can be envisaged.

Stan_Savljevic wrote:chaanakya, IPCS is a US-centric thinktank with some exceptions. Many of the articles have a "south asia" angle to it. In fact, the coinage ipcs is a short-form for India-pak-china-slanka, couched in institute of peace and conflict studies or some such thing.

India has bilateral agreements on water. Treaties with Nepal and Bangladesh cover development of the Mahakali river and sharing the waters of the Ganga. But New Delhi has nothing like that with Beijing. If today’s legal and policy architecture were used to deal with any future water dispute, India and China would have nothing more to look to than a couple of MoUs on sharing flood-season hydrological data on the Yarlong Tsangpo/Brahmaputra and the Sutlej/Langquin Zangbu rivers. Former water secretary Ramaswamy Iyer agrees that there is a chasm where there should be formal agreement. Until some years ago, water did not even figure in talks between India and China, he points out.

Kalyan Barooah
NEW DELHI, July 23 – Waking up to the threat of Brahmaputra river being diverted by China, the Committee of Secretaries (CoS) has asked Arunachal Pradesh Government to urgently allot one major storage project close to the international border, in each of the three river basins, as part of India’s action plan to establish its user right.

In order to pre-empt any diversion of water by China there is an urgent need to establish existing user’s right of Brahmaputra River by taking up construction of storage projects on Siang, Subansiri and Lohit rivers originating from China, said Union Minister for Water Resources Paban Kumar Bansal in a letter to Congress Party’s Lok Sabha Chief Whip Paban Singh Ghatowar.

The direction by the CoS to Government of Arunachal Pradesh follows a recommendation by the Inter-Ministerial Technical Expert Group (IMTEG), which was tasked to draw up an action plan to establish India’s user right.

The recommendation, however, is at variance with Arunachal Pradesh’s policy of setting up run of the river projects in upper reaches of Brahmaputra River, which is being opposed by Government of Assam.

However, reports of China working on a plan to divert Brahmaputra River prompted the Centre to set the IMTEG under a joint secretary in the Ministry of Power. The CoS, which is headed by the Cabinet Secretary, was assigned to look into the issue that has triggered major controversy.

“Based on TEG’s report, the CoS has recommended that Government of Arunachal Pradesh should expeditiously allot at least one major storage project in each of the three basins including Subansiri, Siang and Lohit Basins as close to the international border as possible in order to formulate our existing user rights,” Bansal said.

Further, an inter-ministerial group (IMG) constituted on the direction of the Prime Minister’s Office to evolve a suitable framework to guide and accelerate the development of hydro-power in the North-eastern region, has also recommended for the allotment of at least one storage project in upper reaches of Siang, Subansiri and Lohit Rivers, the MoWR added.

The expert group is keeping a close watch on trans-border Rivers flowing out of China to India, he added.

On the issue of setting up North East Water Resources Authority (NEWRA), the Minister admitted to some reservations by Arunachal Pradesh to the proposal. The high level group set up under the Minister of Water Resources has made all efforts to evolve a consensus on formation of NEWRA. The setting of the authority would, however, depend on the concurrence of Arunachal Pradesh, which is still pending.

Meanwhile, Arunachal Pradesh has allotted 78 projects for hydropower development in Brahmaputra Basin with a capacity of 33,382 MW in all the sub-basins of the State, in addition to three projects with 2710 MW under development.

The State Government has, however, been suggested to take up storage projects wherever feasible. Now, since the State Government has already allotted the projects in all the sub-basins there is little scope left for overall integrated planning of Brahmaputra Basins for optimal utilisation of water, Bansal said, expressing his ministry’s helplessness.

On the impact of the Subansiri Lower Hydro Electric Project (SLHEP), the minister said the State-owned National Hydro Power Corporation (NHPC) is executing the main project with a live storage capacity of 442 MCM. It would afford some flood moderation, as the reservoir would be maintained at minimum draw down level during Monsoon season.

About banning of up stream projects on Subansiri River, the Supreme Court last year on the recommendation of National Board of Wildlife has passed an order stating that ‘any proposal in the up stream of the river would be considered independently on its merit by the standing committee as and when submitted by the proponents’.

In keeping with the order of the apex court, Arunachal Pradesh Government allotted Subansiri Middle Project (1600 MW) to Jindal Power Limited. Recently, the State Government has also allotted one Subansiri Upper Hydro Electric Project o KSK Energy Ventures, the minister divulged.

The minister’s reply comes at a time when a controversy is raging in the State following the expert panel report calling for complete halt to all construction works on Lower Subansiri Hydro Power Project site at Gerukamukh.

An eight-member expert committee, constituted last year jointly by the Department of Power, Assam, NHPC and All Assam Students’ Union (AASU), found “gross inadequacy” in the design of the mega dam, as well as, its construction.

The panel also recommended that the entire project was “redesigned” with sufficient reduction in dam height and production (power generation) capacity to minimise adverse economic (livelihood) and environmental impacts.

there is no global body with the moral authority to convene such a conference and China in its present prickly mood will be reluctant to listen, especially because the river has its origins on the Tibetan plateau and Beijing would be quick to see any discussions as undermining its rights to Tibet.

But the Tibetan plateau and the great rivers that rise from it are also part of the ecological heritage of all human beings. The area has been called the Third Pole because of the rich wild resources of the icy plateau. More particularly, more than 2 billion people in south and southeast Asia depend on the vast rivers that flow from Tibet.

Equally sensitively, the rivers play an inspirational and religious role in the lives of the Tibetan people, who rarely get consulted about Beijing's big plans for their homeland.

The Brahmaputra is of particular interest. Its source is close to the sacred Mount Kailash, and it flows from west to east across southern Tibet before turning north and then making a U-turn at the Great Bend to flow south to India and Bangladesh. The Great Bend is known as "the last secret place on earth" with a rich ecosystem and biological diversity — as well as having the greatest potential for hydropower of any place on Earth. At the Great Bend the river goes through a gorge between two 7,000- meter mountains and then drops almost 2,500 meters as it makes the bend.

The difficulties are compounded because China has been economical with information about what it is doing in Tibet.

Tashi Tsering, who is a Tibetan scholar at the University of British Columbia, lists almost 30 dams on the Yarlung-Tsangpo- Brahmaputra that are planned, under construction or being actively discussed, including a 38-gigawatt project at Motuo and another bigger one at Daduqia (see tibetanplateaublogspot.com). The latter is still a proposal and is probably too close to the Indian border to be attractive, but the Motuo project is likely to go ahead, thinks Tsering.

He dismisses the ideas of conspiracy theorists or Chinese militarists, who see China taming the Great Bend to divert waters from the Brahmaputra, which might restrict the southern flow of waters and eventually impoverish India or Bangladesh. It is hard to go against the laws of nature, he notes, and power generation rather than water diversion is the economic opportunity at the Great Bend. The Great Bend is remote from any major city — even Lhasa is more than 500 km away — but, says Tsering, the State Grid Corporation of China has a map showing Motuo connected to ultra high voltage lines in China.

Now, before the big irreversible works start, is the time for an international discussion, at least for Beijing to tell neighboring states what its plans are and talk about how they may impact on the Himalayas, the region and the world. The problem is that getting India to get together with China's allies Pakistan and Myanmar along with Bangladesh, Bhutan and Nepal will not be easy, especially if Beijing objects. The most worrying tendency of China's economic rise is its insecure arrogance that the has-been West should not tell it what to do.

It may be time for the World Bank — which had success years ago in helping India and Pakistan sort out their problems with shared rivers — to show its environmental credentials and persuade Beijing to share its plans with the world. Can Japan help out by pointing to its own barren experiences in applying concrete to Nature?

Analysts are an intriguing lot. They want to analyse, dissect and lay bare all aspects of an issue till the issue pleads for mercy. Indus Waters are one such issue which analysts are very fond of raking up as it attracts eyeballs being an Indo Pak affair. More so, the floods have focused attention of the world on the waters so why not bring it up?



The fact that there is a model for sharing resources of all the six rivers flowing into Pakistan through the Indus Water Treaty of 1960 is known. The fact is that the Indus water Treaty has so far stood the test of time. Few countries in the world have signed and honoured such treaties as the two nations have; a fact often forgotten. India has just accepted the Bagliar Award and Pakistan has accepted publicly India’s assurance of no diversion of Chenab waters ( Don't know where such assurance was given by India. All part of IWT mechanism , nothing outside it). India also has the Ganges Agreement with Bangla Desh that has held in place regardless of ups and downs.( ok so India has a track record of honouring river treaties)

Some perspectives from an award winning essay are here. What at times remains hidden behind the facade of politicking on the issue is the management of these resource. Whether India or Pakistan like it or not the glaciers are melting. Soon, I can’t predict how soon, the flooding will cease to be the problem in favour of droughts causing mayhem of gigantic proportions.What will we share when the source dries out. Steven Solomon, the author of “Water: The Epic Struggle for Wealth, Power, and Civilization ”has this to say on the issue in The NY Times :

In March, the State Department announced that water scarcity had been upgraded to “a central U.S. foreign policy concern.” Pakistan is at the center of it.

This is because a widespread water shortage in Pakistan would further destabilize the fractious country, hurting its efforts to root out its resident international terrorists. The struggle for water could also become a tipping point for renewed war with India. The jihadists know how important the issue is: in April 2009, Taliban forces launched an offensive that got within 35 miles of the giant Tarbela Dam, the linchpin of Pakistan’s hydroelectric and irrigation system.

and

The Pakistanis may never come to love us. But as the current spectacle of Islamic jihadists bringing emergency aid to flooded areas warns us, we can’t afford to ignore Pakistan’s looming freshwater crisis.

David Rothkopf writing in Foreign Policy(FP) argues that Obama should use his visit in November as an opportunity to get India and Pakistan to talk water and resolve other vexed issues based on a “Nudge” model by America. Nothing wrong with the argument theoretically. Will it also apply to Kashmir, Gilgit Baltistan and terror? In this complex and most dangerous conflict of interests between the two neighbours, reason has seldom had a chance. Some in the West strategic circles argue that the US government is still not doing as much as it should in terms of contributing at a systemic level to helping the Pakistanis and Indians turn this nightmare (floods) into a strategically significant trust-building event. An Indian view is here.

The American media overdrive focusing on water is a clear effort to get India and Pakistan to talk – somehow, in the best American interests. Water is just one such excuse through which the self appointed interlocutors may spur even track two negotiations by highlighting the acute shortage of fresh water in Pakistan.

However the American interests are not as important as putting up a review of water sharing in the region including India, Pakistan, China and Bangladesh. This is a big bite to be taken one at a time but finally the relationship between Indus river system, the Ganges and Tsangpo has to be strengthened to mutually benefit the region.

Of interest to note is that China has signed no treaty and also does not recognise the UN Protocol on water sharing by upper and mid riparians.

It thus has problems with Russia, Vietnam, Burma, Cambodia, Thailand, India, Bangla Desh, and Pak on water sharing as all its decisions with respect to water have been unilateral. In light of this discussion, America’s polite intervention may be to score over public opinion in Pakistan. China it may not. Obama knows that the real problem is with the upper riparian, China, which US will not be willing to buck.

“What we need is a trans-boundary water opportunity analysis”. Transcending from “dividing” to “sharing” the resources, as articulated by A Rafay Alam, a respected Pakistani in the “News” in July this year. A bold piece considering the traditional rivalries between India and Pakistan where each side has an attitude focusing on a blame game. Then there is the mistrust that characterises Indo-Pakistani relations, gross mismanagement of water resources within Pakistan, outdated irrigation practices, poorly planned agricultural zoning, a rising population and resultant water scarcity that make “discussion” mandatory beyond Kashmir and terror. Whether the politicians on both sides will agree to such a discussion is a major stumling block towards creating a universally acceptable formula that creates a win-win situation for both the nations – even if it has to be brokered by Obama.

For Obama this may be a necessity borne out of diffusing tensions between the two nuclear neighbours as his “big-ticket” outcome of the Indian visit but for the region it is more a matter of survival. The fact that the West originated debate is being picked up in South Asia is a factor of Western world’s attempt to facilitate some progress on Indo Pakistan relations that have a direct impact on the “India Centric Pakistan”. This according to the West will open the doors for other bilateral issues to be resolved. Some in America see this as a strategic opportunity towards perception management post the floods.(meddling by third parties in what is essentially a bilateral issues between India and pakistan , India and China and India and Bangladesh, is not desirable )

Finally, however, the solution has to be based on an economic resource sharing formula that benefits both sides, as per observations of Elinor Ostrom, the Nobel Memorial Prize winner for Economic Sciences this year for her study of shared resources. This may appear to be a motivated article from a Western world view but as is the case in all the water wars since biblical times, this is as good an opportunity as any other to get a move on the subject. However, the issue of upper and lower riparian meets a dead-end when it comes to China and whether Obama would want to push his luck here is a matter of debate.

Alam suggests a track II channel to discuss this issue till adequate political will is generated on both sides – I differ. The track II channel in an Indo Pakistani environment is prone to sabotage by the establishment as has been the experience in the past. This cat has to be belled despite her ferocity. It would also tilt international opinion in favour of the region – especially Pakistan.

Utopian, but if followed it may end up as a formula with China(??) and Bangladesh too – water for peace! An earlier discussion Water Wars had articulated a similar thought.

The foreign policy experts need to leverage this great resource to harbinger peace in the region.

The question nonetheless is, “Will Obama bite the bait and will hawks in India and Pakistan let him?”

sanjaykumar wrote:Good point on recharging subsoil aquifers. Pakistanis I have talked to, are looking forward to next year, believe it or not.

Pratyush wrote: Sanjay,

I thought that the replenishing of subsoil aquifiers is dependent on the green cover available. In the absence of the same the excess water will just runoff causing massive erosion of the top soil. In the event of a flood.

So even if they are looking at the the nest year. They may be in for a long wait.

JMT

Brahmaputra diversion by China not yet
Kalyan Barooah
NEW DELHI, Sept 21 – Amidst escalating tension over construction of mega dams in the upper reaches of Brahmaputra River, an Inter-Ministerial Expert Group (IMEG) after preliminary probe has found that there is no diversion of the water by China, as yet.

“No water diversion project has been noticed on the Brahmaputra River in general, so far,” said sources in the Ministry of Water Resources.

However, the piece of news has been taken with a pinch of salt, as the IMEG has gathered that on the Chinese side, the number of potential sites for the construction of dams, reservoirs and hydropower projects, on the Tsangpo River and its tributaries has increased to 21.

Sources said though only two sites at Zangmu and Jiacha have been observed on the main Brahmaputra River, it is suspected that rest of the hydropower projects may be on the many tributaries.

India is watching the situation with caution, despite reports that the upcoming projects on the Chinese side may not have much of an impact downstream, as these projects are mainly Run-of-River projects, catering to local electricity or irrigational requirements.

It has been learnt that China has communicated that the proposed Zangmu Hydropower station is small and its main function is generation of power and not water supply. This power station is not designed to store water and hence unlikely to regulate the volume of water flow. Therefore, it will not have an adverse impact on the downstream area in India, it has been assured.

Sources said despite the comforting news, India has stepped up monitoring the activities across the border related to construction of water conductor system in the adjacent river basins, from where construction work could be initiated towards the Brahmaputra. The area has been tentatively marked between the 25° N to 38° N latitudes and 90° E to 108° E longitudes.

Muck disposal and construction activities are also proposed to be monitored at such locations, said sources.

New Delhi is also exploring all legal options and provisions available under various multilateral conventions and agreements, just in case China decides to breach the status quo on the waters.

The high-level inter-ministerial group, assisted by a team of experts has been asked to submit a report every six months, detailing instances of suspicious activities on the Chinese sides, said sources.

As reported earlier, an IMEG under the chairmanship of the Joint Secretary, Ministry of External Affairs, has been set up to monitor activities of China in the Brahmaputra basin.

In a joint letter to Prime Minister Manmohan Singh and Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao, at least 50 organisations, including the Arunachal Citizens' Right (ACR), have expressed fear that the communities surviving on the river's ecosystem might get destroyed by the politics of water and energy.

China is not only building a series of dams but also diverting water in the upper reaches of the Siang river in the Tibet Autonomous Region (TAR), they claimed.

It would result in massive reduction of water flow that would have irreparable and devastating impact on the ecosystems and the way of life in Tibet, Arunachal Pradesh, Assam and in the lower reaches of Bangladesh, they said.

"We also fear that India's effort to build many dams, including the ones in Lohit and Subansiri rivers, is a way to preempt any Chinese dam upstream using the highly illogical view of stopping dams in upstream by building dams in the lower portion of the river," they said.

China’s apparent assertiveness remains more an expression of weakness than of strength. The spat demonstrates that territorial frictions increasingly flare up as a consequence of economic needs. In this case, decreasing stocks of blue fin tuna have driven adventurous trawler captains deeper into disputed waters. In the same way, growing demand for energy is putting pressure on China to enforce its claims over contested offshore oilfields in the East and South China seas, estimated to harbour more than 200bn barrels of oil. Also, because of rapidly depleting water reserves, the border conflict with India could soon fuse with fierce rivalry over Himalayan rivers. In spite of a water-sharing agreement, (where did he get the info on India China Water sharing agrement)China has continued building dams and irrigation projects on the upper stream of the Brahmaputra.

China’s neighbours have not missed the appeals of its leaders and experts to equip the People’s Liberation Army to defend national development and overseas economic interests. For them it is still an open question whether China’s maturing military diplomacy and emerging blue water navy will serve regional security or help build a new sphere of influence.

Similar concerns exist about China’s economic nationalism, which feeds on a strong historical sense of vulnerability. In the late 1990s, increasing dependence on foreign companies led Beijing to build strong national industries in the protected shell of the domestic market. But then excess capacity and reliance on foreign consumer markets impelled Beijing to strive to make its national champions truly global and to back them with an assertive trade policy.

The other part is more frightening.Look at the data of some of the countries that India will be competing with in the coming decades for its place in the sun.As the table shows, India is a large country, but it has many people as well.China, on the other hand, has a larger population, but it has a land-mass that is three times as big.But while India has almost 10% of its surface area comprising water resources, China has just 3%.In other words, China has more people, more land, but very little water.

And this is where the problem originates.More and more analysts are convinced that one reason why China annexed Tibet (China claims that Tibet was always part of its territory) was because the Brahmaputra, one of the three largest rivers in the world, originates from Tibet.

“No, it wasn’t for the minerals or the land.It was for the water,” says a well-informed Sinologist.

As a result of the Tibet annexation, China now controls 1,700 km of the Yarlung Zangbo river, the Tibetan name for the Brahmaputra.The remainder of the 2,900 km river winds into India through Arunachal Pradesh and then through Bangladesh.That, say experts, could be one more reason behind China eyeing parts of Arunachal Pradesh.

China needs water desperately, for its land, its people and for its industry. For starters, China has already completed feasibility studies for a major hydroelectricity dam at the Tsongpo Gorge to generate (from the Brahmaputra waters) over 40,000 mw annually, more than twice the output of Three Gorges.

Construction work began last year, and the dam is expected to be completed in five years’ time.

This could reduce the supply of water to India in much the same way as has happed to the water flowing into the Mekong river which has Vietnam’s farmers crying today.China claims that the waters in the Mekong river have diminished to a 50 year low this year because of global warming, but has reportedly not given all the data on how much water was collected in its upstream dams.

True, the South Yunan area in China is facing a drought.
But that is why the waters that flow into the Mekong are suspected to have been diverted.

The Mekong (Dza Chu in Tibet, and Lang Xang in China) is the world’s 12th-longest river and the 7th-longest in Asia. Its estimated length is 4,350 km, and it drains an area of 795,000 square km, discharging 475 cubic km of water annually. Like the Brahmaputra, it originates from the Tibetan Plateau but runs through China’s Yunan province, Burma, Laos, Thailand, Cambodia and Vietnam. All these areas except China and Burma belong to the Mekong River Commission.

But the Mekong crisis could be a mere teaser when compared to bigger water diversions from the Brahmaputra.That would starve India and Bangladesh of their share of this river’s waters. Efforts are urgently needed to work out a water-sharing treaty among all the three countries.

Equally worrying are moves that China has been making to woo Nepal with its proposals for no-visa travel between the two countries, and the construction of more friendship roads and bridges in Nepal.This has given rise to fears that China has begun eyeing the rivers that originate from Nepal - particularly the Kosi that is the biggest source of water for the Ganges.

The fact is that most of India’s North Indian rivers originate from Nepal.Should that water get reduced, India’s Gangetic plains could face extremely tough times within the next two decades.It could parch North India.It would further exacerbate its food production capability.

This is a problem that has to be dealt with at the political level with extreme urgency.The consequences for India and for its people could be severe.It could become a matter of life and death.

Literally.