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https://forums.bharat-rakshak.com/
to a total of 14 
this year. 8 sold last year. Yemen bought 39 BMWs.
Used or new?Prem wrote:Do they mention which series ,3,5 ,7 or M ?
In general the rich Paki has a standard of living higher than the middle class Indian. Pakistan has a very small middle class and estimates that I have seen (and myself done) from 2004 to 2010 put the "middle class" at about 12% (About 22 million) which stands out in comparison to India's middle class of 250-300 million or higher.Charlie wrote:Can anyone here do a write up on what an avg Paki college grad does. In which sectors does he go to work? How much he earns? What are the growth prospects?
As far as I know...they dont have any significant industries except that they make these toilet towels that are exported to US/West. But their standard of living is almost same as ours at this point of time.
Just to add a footnote to a great post.shiv wrote:In India we have humongous numbers of poor SDREs who travel by bus, or walk to college and will actually need that education to make a living later.
Top Pakistani Exports to US
The following products were the top-selling products from Pakistan imported into the United States during the first 5 months of 2010.
Each product’s percentage of total value of shipments from Pakistan to America is shown within brackets.
Cotton towels excluding dishtowels … US$130.1 million, up 40.5% (9.9% of total)
Cotton sheets … $78.6 million, up 17.7% (6%)
Men’s cotton shirts, knitted … $69.6 million, up 32.9% (5.3%)
Cotton hosiery excluding net or lace … $57.9 million, up 3.3% (4.4%)
Bathroom and kitchen linen excluding towels ... $49 million, up 24.7% (3.7%)
Printed bed linen … $43.9 million, down 16.8% (3.3%)
Men’s cotton t-shirts excluding underwear, knitted … $37.6 million, up 63.1% (2.9%)
Men’s and boys’ cotton pullovers … $37.6 million, down 10.3% (2.63%)
Quilts and comforters … $33.4 million, down 12.4% (2.56%)
Bar mops of cotton terry … $2.2 million, up 34.5% (2%).
Men’s cotton t-shirts continue to be the fastest-growing products imported from Pakistan into the United States, followed by Pakistani-made cotton towels.
Top Pakistani Imports from US
For the 5-month period ending May 2010, the following Pakistani imports from the United States had the highest dollar values.
Diammonium phosphate fertilizer … US$55.1 million, up 425.9% from 2010 (9.6% of total)
Civilian aircraft including parts … $51.2 million, up 141.1% (6.8%)
Other parts of military aircraft … $29.7 million, down 42.3% (3.9%)
Raw cotton 1.125 inches or more … $26.7 million, down 44.7% (3.5%)
Wheat or meslin flour … $24.6 million, up from nil (3.3%)
Raw cotton over an inch but under 1.125 inches … $23.7 million, down 59.2% (3.1%)
Medication containing hormones, non-veterinary … $16.9 million, down 4.7% (2.2%)
Parts for munitions of war including grenades … $15 million, up 6,894% (2%)
American Pima cotton 1.125 inches or more … $13.2 million, up 500.1% (1.75%)
Used automobiles … $13.1 million, up 121.9% (1.74%).
Among the top 10 Pakistani imports from America, bomb parts for grenades, mines and torpedoes showed the highest percentage gain. Those deadly supplies from the United States were up by almost 7,000% over the first 5 months of 2009.
So I guess the follow-up could be to get a break-up figures by country from where pakis are remitting money to fuel terroristan. Also then drill down to see what kind of activities the do these jihadis engage in those places. Example most pakis in US are either cabbies or own shops. With very tiny percentage in IT or ITES. In Gulf it is labor class.KARACHI: Remittances sent by overseas Pakistanis are growing at a faster pace as these reached $3.5 billion in the first four months of the current fiscal year, giving hope for cumulative $10 billion inflows by the end of this year.
Data released by the State Bank on Thursday showed that remittances increased by 13.32 per cent during July-October for a total inflow of $3.501 billion. In terms of dollars, it was an increase of $411.61 million.
At the time of financial crisis due to devastating floods, the high remittances growth could minimise the size of current account deficit. The current account deficit during the first quarter of 2010-11 rose to $545 million but it was mainly due to surplus in September
During September, the current account was surplus with $447 million which reduced the July-September deficit by 7.1 per cent.
According to State Bank, in October 2010, an amount of $855 million was sent home by overseas Pakistanis, up 12.77 per cent or $96.81 million compared to $758 million received in the same month last year.
The remittances have taken a vital position in economy as these are the second biggest source of foreign exchange after exports.
The monthly average remittances for July-October 2010 period come out to $875.35 million as compared to $772.45 million during the same corresponding period of the last fiscal year, registering an increase of 13.32pc.
ISLAMABAD: Pakistan’s trade deficit narrowed to $1.23 billion in October from $1.39 billion in October last year, the Federal Bureau of Statistics said.
The trade deficit in September this year was $1.16 billion.
Exports stood at $1.98 billion in October this year, against $1.57 billion a year ago, according to the bureau’s data posted on its website late on Thursday.
Imports were worth $3.22 billion, compared with $2.97 billion in October last year.
The country’s trade deficit for the first four months of the 2010/11 fiscal year was $5.1 billion compared with $4.54 billion in the year-ago period.
The country’s trade deficit for the first four months of the 2010/11 fiscal year was $5.1 billion compared with $4.54 billion in the year-ago period.
The brewing economic pot!
Published: November 12, 2010
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Strange as it may sound, economic opportunities seem to be coming Pakistan’s way from
unthought-of global developments and there are already clear indicators that economic activity
per se at home is significantly picking up at least on the micro front. We can measure this either
in quantitative or in monetary terms, i.e. in case of the former the movement of commodities
traded and produced in volume terms and for latter in value terms and this preferably over an
internationally benchmarked currency (say the dollar). In my book while the value increase is
welcome, the litmus test of an upward movement in economic activity is when the volumes of
goods and commodities a country turns over during a given period register an increase. The good
sign in our case is that in the recent months the value of Pakistani exports has gone up and there
is an upward swing in quantum terms. Textiles, which constitute nearly 70 percent of Pakistan’s
exports have seen a big jump in value terms (owing to a global shortage and climbing price of
cotton) and more importantly also in quantitative terms being up on a month-on-month basis from
May to September 2010.
With the global investors and financiers losing confidence, and even interest in the financial
markets owing to factors such as the recent economic crisis and financial meltdown, their focus
for investment has instead has turned towards commodities, grains in particular. So as a result,
cotton is on a year-on-year basis going up by more than three times (currently trading at $1.40 at
NY spot rates), Corn about 120 percent ($6/bushel), and the list goes on. The prices of wheat,
sugarcane, rice, cocoa, etc all have at least doubled. Fortunately for Pakistan, this presents a
golden opportunity. We seem to be entering a period of significant enhancement in our revenue
inflows to finally start posting trade and current account surpluses. We have already seen this
happen with the current account balance in August 2010!
Exports in FY-2010 exceeded the official target by $1.0 billion rising to $19.38 billion - already
nearly 10 percent higher than $17.68 billion recorded in FY-2009. The Commerce Ministry feels
that exports rose as a result of production and market diversification, both in terms of range of
products exported, their destination and their higher value-addition. If so, this is yet another
Textiles and ready-to-wear garments exports of $10.244 billion up from $9.572 billion in FY-2009,
rice exports worth $2.3 billion and fruits, vegetables and jewellery were the key items exported.
With international prices of these grain commodities and gold trading at their all-time highs, it will
have a good effect on our export revenues during the months ahead! Also, other new high-value
products like electric power meters, PET bottle grain resin and glitter for fashion garments are
being added to exports. Our import bill for FY-2010 was $34.70 billion, a shade less than $34.82
billion in FY-2009, as the import growth was primarily restrained by declining prices of oil.
Likewise, the trade deficit (TD) narrowed down 10.54 percent to $15.32 billion from $17.13 billion
in FY-2009, because of higher exports. Pakistan’s current account deficit (CAD) narrowed down
in FY-2010 to $3.507 billion from $9.261 billion in FY-2009, according to the State Bank of
Pakistan (SBP). This development mainly attributed to the narrowing down of the balance of
trade, a decline in the prices of imported oil, and a record inflow of remittances from overseas
Pakistanis. The remittances in FY-2010 totalled a record $8.906 billion.
With a strong upward futures graph because of the above recounted reasons, we have great
potential of posting healthy current account surpluses. With an expanded home market activity
due to booming commodity prices, there exists an unparalleled economic opportunity in the
Pakistani market place in the coming months!
So then why the gloom and doom amongst the people and experts? Well, mostly because, there
exists an unsaid and perceived mistrust in the governing ability of the present government. That
they will yet again squander this golden chance by not availing it in a manner that it yields
transparent, people-friendly, equitably distributed and optimum results. Corruption, cartels,
lobbies and powerful interest groups would tend to direct the flow of revenues where it gets
concentrated in a few hands, rather than benefiting the people at large (97 percent of the banking
profit in Pakistan this year was posted by just five banks)! The fear is that once again we might
see an enhanced economic activity turn into runaway inflation, instead of providing more jobs and
relief to the people.
Also, some analysts are of the view that improvements on the current account side could be
nullified, if the government is not prudent in selecting the portfolio of its fiscal spending. Care
needs to be taken as to where the money supply is routed (remember Shaukat Aziz’s
government committed the cardinal sin of directing cheap capital that comes a nation’s way once
in 50 years to promoting consumption of non-productive consumer goods at the expense of the
manufacturing sector).
Long-term gains, instead short-term profiteering, need be kept in view. These extra revenues
should be used to make provisions for visibly rising costs in industrial inputs, food and oil, and for
debt repayment that will hit us sooner than we realise. Pakistan has a sizeable multilateral and
bilateral debt on which servicing will resume in the coming months. Last but not least, the SBP
report says that the foreign companies operating in Pakistan repatriated much lower dividends
and fees in FY-2010 as compared to FY2009, which helped the CAD. This may not be the case in
2011.
To sum up, the government does not have to reinvent the wheel, but to simply learn from and
follow the example of China that recently announced its new five-year plan and lo and behold, it
focuses upon, mainly, two things:
Market Economy with Socialist Characteristics.
Jihua (previous plans) stand replaced with Guihua (long-term programmes and
strategy).
This Chinese plan introduces some precise and indicative targets that the government will strive
to achieve in the coming years. Again, mainly two things have been focused upon: Growth and
Employment. The new long-term agenda will shun the earlier single-minded pursuit of growth and
replace it with growth with “all-round” development, containing pollution and quickly arresting
widening economic inequalities. According to the European Union Chamber of Commerce in
China, the weight of ‘manufacturing industries’ in China’s economy almost tripled between 2003
and 2008 and this was the main reason for China’s rapid and sustainable emergence as the new
global economic superpower.
We now have arrived at a point where we must insist that our political leaders guide us along the
path to a future that leads to long-term sustainability, justice and prosperity for all Pakistanis.
Fortunately, an opportunity to make it happen is in the making. The danger, however, is that if they
again fail to deliver, the consequences would be far more disastrous than before!
The writer is an entrepreneur and an economic analyst.
Email: [email protected].
12th Nov, 2010 13:02:39 PM
KARACHI: Car sales continued to rise in October despite an increase in vehicle prices and depressed demand from flood-hit areas.
During the month, 11,911 cars were sold compared to September’s figure of 10,405 units, an increase of 14 per cent, according to data released by the Pakistan Automobile Manufacturers Association on Thursday.
Higher sales despite rising prices have left some analysts baffled. “Surging Japanese yen against the rupee, lower agricultural income and depressed demand from flood-affected areas along with high interest rates are a recipe for lower car sales,” commented BMA analyst Sana Bawani.
“The rupee has already depreciated by 15 per cent so far in 2010 and car-makers have kept announcing price increases,” she added. “Continuous price increase may in fact be the reason for the rise in demand for cars.”
She asserted that “car dealers anticipate that prices will rise further and they may be stocking up to lock in higher profits.”
Production of cars also stepped up as 12,168 cars were produced in October compared with 10,021 units in the preceding month.
Sales of trucks, buses slow down
Sales and production of trucks and buses declined in the month under review as 211 units were manufactured against 326 units produced in September. Sales also dampened to 237 units from 343 units in the preceding month.
Meanwhile, sales of motorcycles and three-wheelers improved slightly to 67,565 units from 61,233 units, after lacklustre demand in the first three months (July-September) of the current fiscal year.
InvestCap analyst Abdul Azeem downplayed the impact of losses to the auto sector due to recent floods in the country. “Prices of cotton and sugarcane have skyrocketed in recent days,” said Azeem highlighting that this will off-set losses faced by agriculturists.
“Going forward their earnings will improve and so will their ability to afford new automobiles,” he added.
Experts appear divided over the future trend in car sales, as they concur that prices of cars are likely to keep rising in coming weeks because of weakening rupee against Japanese yen.
End.
This is an apt starting point for a comparison.. however the conclusion that Pakistan is going to fall apart is not the inevitability that this thread assumes.Lalmohan wrote:you know shiv - your model above corresponds quite well to the apartheid era south african economy
world class ultra modern amenities and infrastructure for 2-3m and full-on 3rd world for 30m
replace feudals with white farmers and landowners and the rest pretty much fits
RamaT, there is a difference in the help given by the US and PRC. The US gives hard cash, and in large and generous scoops, whereas PRC is involved in projects like Chashma, highways, dams etc.RamaT wrote:3.5 friends, as everyone here calls them - When both the USA and China are counted among them, the 1st and 2nd largest economies on the planet, then that's a really big advantage. Loans/grants/etc, the Pakis are willing to sell themselves for the next hit of money and these two are happy to oblige.. for decades, if need be.
That may not be true, the highlighted part. But, the US is invariably more generous whenever the PA rules. It was either intentional, or circumstances so developed or circumstances were created to make TSP indispensable to the US.The army - The center of the Paki elite. If things ever got truly hairy they would re-instate military rule. Corrupt, but less so than the civilians and they'll make sure the buses run on time. Economy grew at 9% rate under Musharraf.
I too believe that they are not going to implode completely any time soon if they manage their situation prudently. I am convinced now that the Pakistani economy might not be allowed to fail so completely that it led to disintegration. It could be terror that might unravel them. But, I would add another condition here. If the Pakistanis anger the US sufficiently that they decided enough was enough, then we can see some fireworks. It will then be PRC vs. US & India vis-a-vis TSP. PRC might still not want TSP to go downunder. Increasingly, TSP is pledging itself to the PRC pawnbroker.Some thoughts on what could lead to them failing..
International community must help Pakistan: Malik
DAWN.COM
(38 minutes ago) Today
ISLAMABAD: Interior Minister Rehman Malik on Sunday said that if the international community cannot give funds then it should not keep telling Pakistan to “do more” either.
Pakistan’s Finance Minister Hafeez Shaikh said on Sunday that Pakistan is currently going through a phase of transition. No $hit Sherlock
If the above is true, then why this:...the objective of holding the Pakistan Development Forum was not to obtain aid from the world.
Countries participating in the Pakistan Development Forum were going to be made aware of the losses Pakistan suffered due to the floods and also of the various developmental measures taken by the government.
Jai Ho!The rupee has shed 37 percent value against the dollar under the two and a half year rule of the current government due to ebbing investor confidence on the political system, analysts said on Saturday.
$50 bn = TSP's all foreign debt. Is the world going to be actually fool enough to grant such a panacea to TSP?
Whare does this therad assume that?RamaT wrote: the conclusion that Pakistan is going to fall apart is not the inevitability that this thread assumes.
Are you trying to say that the army is not in control now?RamaT wrote: The army - The center of the Paki elite. If things ever got truly hairy they would re-instate military rule. Corrupt, but less so than the civilians and they'll make sure the buses run on time. Economy grew at 9% rate under Musharraf.
Trouble is, a good amount of money is channeled through 'Hawala' and that hardly leaves a trace.Most labor class in ME countries prefer the hawala route than a legitimate channel because of the speed of delivery and lack of bank accounts.Pakis have gone a step further and are using this 'sharia' instrument to transfer funds outside EU and North America (remember, even Faisal Shehzad sent/received funds through hawala channels in NY).Brad Goodman wrote: During September, the current account was surplus with $447 million which reduced the July-September deficit by 7.1 per cent.
According to State Bank, in October 2010, an amount of $855 million was sent home by overseas Pakistanis, up 12.77 per cent or $96.81 million compared to $758 million received in the same month last year.
So I guess the follow-up could be to get a break-up figures by country from where pakis are remitting money to fuel terroristan. Also then drill down to see what kind of activities the do these jihadis engage in those places. Example most pakis in US are either cabbies or own shops. With very tiny percentage in IT or ITES. In Gulf it is labor class.
Absolutely. Economies existed before economists did and before economic data were published. Or indeed invented and defined.Ambar wrote: Trouble is, a good amount of money is channeled through 'Hawala' and that hardly leaves a trace.
http://www.dawn.com/2010/11/15/pakistan ... aiver.htmlISLAMABAD: As federal and provincial economic teams assured the international community on Sunday of their resolve to introduce wide-ranging taxation measures, including Reformed General Sales Tax (RGST) and taxes on agriculture and real estate, Interior Minister Rahman Malik made a plea for waiving the $50 billion foreign debt to help Pakistan move ahead with the war against terrorism.
On the other hand, representatives of the international community attending a two-day Pakistan Development Forum asked the government and people of Pakistan to take the lead in reconstruction and rehabilitation of flood-hit areas.Most of the foreign delegates repeatedly asked the authorities about steps they were taking to mobilise resources.Two provinces – Sindh and Punjab – informed the meeting that despite facing opposition they were moving ahead on the RGST and planned to raise substantial resources through tax on agriculture and property.Interior Minister Rahman Malik said that Pakistan was fighting terrorism as a frontline state and deserved that its $50 billion foreign debt was written off.
True.. but that is a transient phase. The Paki elites are interested in keeping power and attacking India.. being a client to a larger state lets them do that. The Chinese are mostly interested in achieving access to Gwadar and other ports in the Arabian Sea and keeping the Paki's as a thorn in India's side, which one is a larger motivation right now.. I'm not so sure. But once they are shipping oil from there into China and bypassing the sea lanes, then that will be the biggest reason for the Chinese to be in Pakistan as their economy will depend upon it, and so money/military/infrastructure aid will rain down. Regardless my original point of them sustaining themselves through China/US remains.SSridhar wrote:RamaT, there is a difference in the help given by the US and PRC. The US gives hard cash, and in large and generous scoops, whereas PRC is involved in projects like Chashma, highways, dams etc.RamaT wrote:3.5 friends, as everyone here calls them - When both the USA and China are counted among them, the 1st and 2nd largest economies on the planet, then that's a really big advantage. Loans/grants/etc, the Pakis are willing to sell themselves for the next hit of money and these two are happy to oblige.. for decades, if need be.
Arguing the degree of which face of a two faced liar is more of a liar is an exercise in futility. My point was to look at the measurable fact.. and a measured 9% growth rate under Musharraf is fact. Whether that's because the Military took more or less out of the pot than the civilians would have, or that their ability to get more money from the US doesn't matter. The result was a Pakistan better off.. and the only way that collapse will occur there so that the current regime is removed is through a massive public crisis which requires a failure in the economy. If people are being fed, they won't riot.. as China has shown.SSridhar wrote:That may not be true, the highlighted part. But, the US is invariably more generous whenever the PA rules. It was either intentional, or circumstances so developed or circumstances were created to make TSP indispensable to the US.RamaT wrote:The army - The center of the Paki elite. If things ever got truly hairy they would re-instate military rule. Corrupt, but less so than the civilians and they'll make sure the buses run on time. Economy grew at 9% rate under Musharraf.
That would be a nice scenario, however I don't see it happening(in the short term.. once China is the greater benefactor all bets are off) the Pakis know which side butters their bread. And the US is scared to death of the Paki nooks so every effort will be made to buy off the right people to keep the country upright and pointed in the 'right' direction.SSridhar wrote:I too believe that they are not going to implode completely any time soon if they manage their situation prudently. I am convinced now that the Pakistani economy might not be allowed to fail so completely that it led to disintegration. It could be terror that might unravel them. But, I would add another condition here. If the Pakistanis anger the US sufficiently that they decided enough was enough, then we can see some fireworks. It will then be PRC vs. US & India vis-a-vis TSP. PRC might still not want TSP to go downunder. Increasingly, TSP is pledging itself to the PRC pawnbroker.RamaT wrote:Some thoughts on what could lead to them failing..
Can you provide some backup for this assertion?RamaT wrote:My point was to look at the measurable fact.. and a measured 9% growth rate under Musharraf is fact.
Um.. the first post of the thread by Prem? "The economic collaspe of Pakistan is not a question of if but when ."shiv wrote:Whare does this therad assume that?RamaT wrote: the conclusion that Pakistan is going to fall apart is not the inevitability that this thread assumes.
I am well aware that the Paki army wields major power, however there is overt and covert control. When they have overt control they don't have to worry about offending any interests and can steamroll their will without issue.shiv wrote:Are you trying to say that the army is not in control now?RamaT wrote: The army - The center of the Paki elite. If things ever got truly hairy they would re-instate military rule. Corrupt, but less so than the civilians and they'll make sure the buses run on time. Economy grew at 9% rate under Musharraf.
So can you tell me how fast the unmeasured parts of the economy grew?shiv wrote: Which part of the economy grew at 9%? The parts that were measured? Or the parts that don't even come under the purview of "economic indicators". How are you so sure that the latter did not grow at 15%, outpacing the piddly 9% of the "white" economy? Do you have any way of measuring and comparing the two? What percentage of teh Pakistan economy is white and how much is black. What proportion of Pakis live off the white economy and how many live by the black economy?
I'm using the World Bank Development indicators as browsable through http://www.google.com/publicdata and for some reason I made a mistake and read 2005 as 8.67%, should be 7.67.. so the above should read 8%. Mea Culpa, apologies.Arjun wrote:Can you provide some backup for this assertion?RamaT wrote:My point was to look at the measurable fact.. and a measured 9% growth rate under Musharraf is fact.
You have answered your own question.RamaT wrote:
So can you tell me how fast the unmeasured parts of the economy grew?
<snip>
This is as good a source as I have found, if you have better I'd be very appreciative if you could point me to it.
however large the black/rural economy is.. 10%, 30%, 50%, it's not going to grow at large rates without major industrialization and other modern inputs.. and those can be tracked.
Sure, here you go:Arjun wrote:Over the last 15 years, Pakistan has shown 2 years of growth above 7% (though never above 8%) - 2004 and '05. This coincides with the years when the global economy was robust ( you can overlay a graph of India's growth and see that the highs are reached at the same time)...Don't think it has anything to do with the military being in power.
Of course all of this assumes that Pakistani statistics are accurate, which is a big IF.