Libyan War : Political and strategic aspects

The Strategic Issues & International Relations Forum is a venue to discuss issues pertaining to India's security environment, her strategic outlook on global affairs and as well as the effect of international relations in the Indian Subcontinent. We request members to kindly stay within the mandate of this forum and keep their exchanges of views, on a civilised level, however vehemently any disagreement may be felt. All feedback regarding forum usage may be sent to the moderators using the Feedback Form or by clicking the Report Post Icon in any objectionable post for proper action. Please note that the views expressed by the Members and Moderators on these discussion boards are that of the individuals only and do not reflect the official policy or view of the Bharat-Rakshak.com Website. Copyright Violation is strictly prohibited and may result in revocation of your posting rights - please read the FAQ for full details. Users must also abide by the Forum Guidelines at all times.
AKalam
BRFite
Posts: 285
Joined: 04 Jan 2009 05:34
Location: Los Angeles
Contact:

Re: Libya No Fly Zone: Political and strategic aspects

Post by AKalam »

http://www.theaustralian.com.au/raid-on ... 6025195950
US military says airstrikes have taken out Gaddadfi's defences
COALITION strikes have succeeded in crippling the air defences of Muammar Gaddafi's Libyan regime and a no-fly zone is effectively in place over the country, the US military said today. "We judge these strikes have been very effective in significantly degrading the regime air defence capability," vice-admiral Bill Gortney told a Pentagon briefing. French, US and British forces have launched the biggest intervention in the Arab world since the 2003 US-led invasion of Iraq, firing more than 120 Tomahawk Cruise missiles and conducting bombing raids on key Libyan targets. Britain today said it would consider Libyan leader Gaddafi's promise of a ceasefire on "actions not words'' as more Tornado jets left from a base in eastern England. Britain said earlier that its overnight air and sea strikes had been "very successful'' and stressed it was doing everything it could to avoid civilian casualties as it enforces a UN-sanctioned no-fly zone. "The no-fly zone is effectively in place," the Pentagon spokesman said, explaining, as a second night of missions began, that Gaddafi had lost the ability to launch many of his surface-to-air missiles. "There is no indication of any civilian casualties" resulting from the allied strikes, Gortney added, a denial of reports to the contrary from Gaddafi officials. Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Admiral Mike Mullen said the strikes had stopped Gaddafi's forces in their tracks and the aim now was to cut off their logistical support. Mullen stressed that the immediate goal of the coalition's intervention - as prescribed by a UN Security Council resolution on Thursday - was to protect civilians with a no-fly zone, not to oust Gaddafi. Explosions were reportedly heard on Sunday near Gaddafi's residence, but Western forces insist Libya's leader was not being specifically targeted. US President Barack Obama and Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, as well as other Western leaders, had been saying Gaddafi must go. US Defence Secretary Robert Gates said it would be "unwise'' to have coalition forces try to kill Gaddafi in military strikes in Libya. The bombings have opened a floodgate of competing emotions across the Arab world, which supports the Libyan rebels but is wary of more Western intervention. Arabs are watching the attacks against Gaddafi's regime with a blend of relief for the help to outgunned rebels, trepidation about ulterior motives of Western intervention, and envy in volatile countries where calls for international help were unheeded. The Arab League initially supported the campaign but its secretary general, Amr Moussa, said it had endorsed a no-fly zone, not bombings. The confusion over what a no-fly zone entails persisted among ordinary Arabs, too, as Libyan state television reported at least 48 civilian casualties, a figure that couldn't be independently verified. Mullen admitted the next steps in the process were far from clear. "We're in a situation now that what we do will depend to some degree on what he does," Mullen told Fox News Sunday. Pressed on CBS's Face the Nation about the endgame, he said that was "very uncertain" and indicated it would ultimately be up to other members of the coalition, rather than the United States, to decide what action to take. "It's hard to know exactly how this turns out. He's a thug; he's a cagey guy; he's a survivor. We know that," Mullen said. "I can't say exactly how long ... the military part of this will be in effect and I think it's for others to determine where this goes long-term." Obama has vowed that US troops will not be deployed on the ground and Mullen stressed that military action was limited _ for the moment at least _ to protecting civilians, particularly in the rebel bastion of Benghazi. "The focus of the UN Security Council was really Benghazi specifically and to protect the civilians," Mullen told Fox News Sunday. "This is not about going after Gaddafi himself or attacking him at this particular point in time. "It is about achieving these narrow and relatively limited objectives so that he stops killing his people and so that humanitarian support can be provided." Mullen said the no-fly zone had been successfully implemented as Gaddafi hadn't flown any aircraft in two days and that the US military would look to hand over the running of the mission "in a few days". "We command the operation right now, but this is a coalition," he said. "The French actually had the first aeroplanes in. We attacked last night with the British. "And we expect, in a few days, to hand off command of this... to a coalition that will lead it over the longer term, and then, from the United States perspective, recede to a position of support." His remarks came after the United States unleashed a barrage of strikes against the Libyan regime's air defences. In a dramatic show of force, US warships and a British submarine fired Tomahawk Cruise missiles into Libya against Gaddafi's anti-aircraft missiles and radar facilities on Saturday. Gortney told reporters at the Pentagon in an earlier briefing that the cruise missiles "struck more than 20 integrated air defence systems and other air defence facilities ashore". Earlier on Sunday, three US B-2 stealth bombers dropped 40 bombs on a major Libyan airfield in an attempt to destroy much of the Libyan Air Force, US military officials said. In all, 19 US planes, including the stealth bombers took part in dawn raids Sunday on targets in Libya, US Africa Command, based in Germany, said.


http://www.cnn.com/2011/POLITICS/03/20/ ... a.support/

Obama works to shore up Arab support for Libyan airstrikes
Rio De Janeiro, Brazil (CNN) -- President Obama and his national security team worked behind the scenes Sunday to try to shore up support within the Arab world for the military mission in Libya, with top White House aides reaching out to officials of the Arab League to insist the bombing does not exceed the scope of a U.N. mandate, according to senior administration officials. The senior officials described the Obama team's phone calls as making clear to the Arab League that bombing Libyan leader Moammar Gadhafi's air defenses falls within the U.N. Security Council resolution's scope of imposing a no-fly zone and taking "all necessary measures" to stop the dictator from attacking civilians in his own country. "We don't believe this goes beyond the resolution," said one senior administration official in describing the White House's message to the Arab League. The lobbying came after Arab League officials complained earlier Sunday that airstrikes by the U.S. military and other allies inside Libya exceeded the scope of merely instituting a no-fly zone. The senior officials noted that Obama also personally called King Abdullah of Jordan as part of the effort to keep key Arab allies on board with the mission. The Obama phone call was in addition to calls made by Vice President Joe Biden on Sunday to leaders in Algeria and Kuwait. Meanwhile, senior officials say they believe the allied campaign is hitting Gadhafi's military hard. "We've essentially made substantial progress in wiping out his air defenses," one official said. The official added that the White House is still confident that the administration will be able to hand off "later this week" much of the mission to allies, who will actually enforce the no-fly zone after the initial U.S. bombing clears the way for it.

http://www.theaustralian.com.au/strikes ... 6025191950
Strikes turn tide in battle for Benghazi

http://www.dailystar.com.lb/article.asp ... z1HBStQMGr
All despots should fear Gadhafi's fate
Last edited by AKalam on 21 Mar 2011 04:20, edited 1 time in total.
saip
BRF Oldie
Posts: 4375
Joined: 17 Jan 2003 12:31
Location: USA

Re: Libya No Fly Zone: Political and strategic aspects

Post by saip »

Ambar wrote:AP reporting Gadhafi's compound hit by allied airforce. The front of the 4 ft thick walled building has been completely reduced to rubble. Are heavy strategic bombers being used or is it just the handy work of F-16s and Rafales ?

CNN is suggesting it could be Tomahawks because of circular holes.
Ambar
BRF Oldie
Posts: 3231
Joined: 12 Jun 2010 09:56
Location: Weak meek unkil Sam!

Re: Libya No Fly Zone: Political and strategic aspects

Post by Ambar »

Dasari wrote: India's position is ridiculous. It is one thing to abstain from voting, but to make a running commentary against the air strikes is preposterous. Is it that hard to keep their mouth shut while these power mongers fight it out? Clearly at the end of the day, Gaddafi is going to die or run away. I haven't seen any statement from China, Brazil or Germany against the air strikes. The Russian statement against air strikes is very mechanical which they have been doing for the last 50 years and nobody takes them seriously. But for a country aspiring to have UN security council's permanent membership, this is a huge step backwards.
Why is India's stand surprising? Any western/Israeli action against muslim majority countries almost always invokes a strong criticism from India - that's a given. Our government's stand and statements are mostly to sweeten the walls of Jamia Masjid in Delhi and nothing else. What is interesting is Gadhafi was pretty certain of India's support. BBC is reporting that he met the ambassadors from India,Russia,China and Turkey 3 days ago. I wish we could have taken a neutral stand instead of explicitly backing a proven nut-job. Gadhafi has plenty of blood on his hands, and his stand on Kashmir is well known. There's nothing to gain by supporting him.
krisna
BRF Oldie
Posts: 5881
Joined: 22 Dec 2008 06:36

Re: Libya No Fly Zone: Political and strategic aspects

Post by krisna »

1) with the NFZ actively enforced in libya,
2) but no western ground troops to defeat or kill gadaffi.
3) only rebel libyans to fight pitched battles with gadaffi forces on the ground.
IOW civil war in the offing.


4) There are embassies in tripoli with staffing,
5) As gadaffi cab become a madman- when things become hot for him-- will he capture them and hold hostage.
what will be the response of the west then?? to the hostage situation.
Fate of 30,000 air-struck
Around 30 embassies are still functioning there, though embassies of some western nations were withdrawn temporarily, Nuruzzaman said.
Lebanon embassy in Tripoli attacked by Gaddafi forces
Lebanon President Michel Suleiman condemned Saturday the attack on the Lebanese Embassy in Libya by Gaddafi forces
According to a statement issued by his office, Suleiman said that vandalizing the premises of the embassy “is a violation of Lebanon’s sovereignty.”
krisna
BRF Oldie
Posts: 5881
Joined: 22 Dec 2008 06:36

Re: Libya No Fly Zone: Political and strategic aspects

Post by krisna »

Libya: Gaddafi Rails Against 'No Fly' Attacks and Berbers
What gadaffi cals the western air attacks-
In a lengthy, rambling address on his Libyan state television Sunday, Muammar al-Gaddafi vowed to fight against the foreign "devils" who overnight bombed Libyan military installations
The attack by what Gaddafi called "imperial" aggressors will provoke a "worldwide, popular revolution", he said. "Even women," he exclaimed, "will go out and fight". He said he has opened the nation's arsenals to the population, so they can defend themselves against foreign assaults.
Gaddafi compared the coalition forces to "backwards Berbers." In the past, Gaddafi has denied the existence of indigenous Berbers as an ethnicity alongside the now-dominant population of Arab origin, although communities of Berbers still live in areas west and southwest of the capitol Tripoli.
sure recipe for lawlessness, civil war. looks like 2nd iraq only difference western troops on the ground may be absent.
krisna
BRF Oldie
Posts: 5881
Joined: 22 Dec 2008 06:36

Re: Libya No Fly Zone: Political and strategic aspects

Post by krisna »

Indians stranded in Libya safe
The 2,000 odd Indians still in Libya were reported to be unharmed as France and the UK, backed by the US, launched Operation Odyssey Dawn
better to evacuate the remaining non essential Indians before things turn worse.
krisna
BRF Oldie
Posts: 5881
Joined: 22 Dec 2008 06:36

Re: LIBYA : No fly zone/air war thread

Post by krisna »

US to hand over Libya operation
The Pentagon expects to hand over control of allied military operations in Libya "in a matter of days", US Defense Secretary Robert Gates said.
Control would likely go to either to a UK-France coalition or to Nato, Gates said, speaking on a US military plane en route to Russia.
ManuT
BRFite
Posts: 595
Joined: 22 Apr 2005 23:50

Re: Libya No Fly Zone: Political and strategic aspects

Post by ManuT »

Singha wrote:Shiv, quite simply our foreign policy is rudderless. in the absence of any clear cut long term goal and the WILL to work for it, these generic MS word template type statements are rolled out after copy-paste. we neither gain anything by siding with the west nor anything by siding with the rogue of the day. we are ignored by both because we take no sides, non alignment and irrelevance at its best.
- bomb blast is regretable
- naxal attack is regretable
- BJP making any issue is regretable
- 2G scam is regretable
- anything is regretable
If someone can pass a paper to SM Krishna, he can say GOI's statement is regretable.. :rotfl:
Singha
BRF Oldie
Posts: 66589
Joined: 13 Aug 2004 19:42
Location: the grasshopper lies heavy

Re: LIBYA : No fly zone/air war thread

Post by Singha »

I have a feeling they are aiming at a West Libya (Qadhafi) and East Libya (rebels) partition. the rebel area would be a UN protectorate for a while until Qadhafi signs a peace treaty and effectively splits Libya formally. there will be some relocation of people from the west to east.

so far no signs they are attempting to uproot qadhafi by targeting him or leadership nodes.

Sudan and Ethiopia have split. Libya is next.

not sure if west libya would be left with any oilfields. if there are none or little, we shall see an example of what happens to a non-industrialized arab state when the oil runs out - they'd have to go back to selling dates, camel hides and sand. :mrgreen: off-beat eco and postwar tourism of bomber out airbases would attract some planespotter type faithfuls.

we have no dog in this fight. cordial economic relations with both halves can be resumed in terms of subcontracts for rebuilding and indian workers, but the Euros/US will claim the top level contracts and skim the fatter margins. after all, they are doing all the dog work now.
Last edited by Singha on 21 Mar 2011 07:20, edited 1 time in total.
NRao
BRF Oldie
Posts: 19329
Joined: 01 Jan 1970 05:30
Location: Illini Nation

Re: Libya No Fly Zone: Political and strategic aspects

Post by NRao »

wonder what is the Russian and chinese take on all this.
Bade
BRF Oldie
Posts: 7212
Joined: 23 May 2002 11:31
Location: badenberg in US administered part of America

Re: Libya No Fly Zone: Political and strategic aspects

Post by Bade »

A new robust model of Colonialism without all its weaknesses from past centuries.

1) Story begins with genuine political aspirations of people in foreign dictatorial lands with western business interests.
2) See an opportunity to make more business and nudge them (rebels) on with partial support.
3) Let the evil government forces unleash on their own people for a while.
4) Arm twist the ethnically related states ( here, the Gulf states) to be part of 'Coalition of the willing' ;)
5) Get UN resolution passed to protect civilians (sometimes local) using benign 3-letter words like NFZ and WMD in the past. :rotfl:
6) Bomb the crap out, to do live equipment tests/advts for sale to make money to third world nations.

Continue cycle while all wannabe superpowers drool on RFPs for procurement and create new threads, to discuss above scenarios for each instance of this model created every few years, to keep western Economies chugging along.

Why the trinity is required always to keep the story going: Creation, sustenance and death should not be alien to us.
AKalam
BRFite
Posts: 285
Joined: 04 Jan 2009 05:34
Location: Los Angeles
Contact:

Re: Libya No Fly Zone: Political and strategic aspects

Post by AKalam »

http://www.tampabay.com/incoming/arab-w ... ns/1158693

Arab world supports attacks on Libya, with reservations

McClatchy Newspapers
In Print: Monday, March 21, 2011
CAIRO — The U.S. and allied bombing of Libya that began Saturday opened a floodgate of competing emotions across the Arab world, which supports the Libyan rebels but is wary of more Western intervention.

The Arab League initially supported the campaign but its secretary-general, Amr Moussa, said it had endorsed a no-fly zone, not bombings. The confusion over what a no-fly zone entails persisted among ordinary Arabs, too, as Libyan state television reported at least 48 civilian casualties, a figure that couldn't be independently verified.

"My whole generation grew up with Desert Fox in '98 all the way up to the Iraq war, and then the Israeli occupation as well, so that tends to feed into a desire not to see Western political or military intervention," said Heba Morayef of the Cairo office of Human Rights Watch. "In the case of Libya, however, it's more complicated."

In a region where news of Western warplanes striking a Muslim nation typically elicits rage and vows of revenge, the initial support for the allied attacks shows just how isolated Libyan leader Moammar Gadhafi had become.

President Bashar Assad of Syria, another pariah state, is a lone voice in support of Gadhafi, perhaps fearful of a similar uprising at home.

Few others in the region would miss Gadhafi, who appeared to take delight in berating and goading fellow leaders. He has a long history of stunts at the annual Arab Summit, such as smoking cigars on the conference room floor to show contempt for the speakers or trading insults with the Saudi king in a fight so heated that it had to be taken off the air.

"Usually, Arab rulers tolerate each other, no matter how idiotic they are, in order to survive," said Mohamed Qahtani, a Saudi human rights activist. "But the guy is insane, there's no question about it. He's unacceptable in every way."


The tiny Persian Gulf states of Qatar and the United Arab Emirates reportedly will take part in the Libya campaign. In contrast, gulf countries are silent or complicit in attacks on protesters in Bahrain and Yemen, where dozens have died in the past week. Saudi Arabia sent 1,000 troops to help defend the Bahraini government, and there is little uproar over Yemen's vicious campaign against rebels.

Copyright 2011 St. Petersburg Times
Bade
BRF Oldie
Posts: 7212
Joined: 23 May 2002 11:31
Location: badenberg in US administered part of America

Re: Libya No Fly Zone: Political and strategic aspects

Post by Bade »

Qatar and UAE have no street protests (yet) so no harm in being part of this coalition of the willing to support rebellion against an insane dictator.
ramana
Forum Moderator
Posts: 60233
Joined: 01 Jan 1970 05:30

Re: Libya No Fly Zone: Political and strategic aspects

Post by ramana »

AKalam, However Libya is in North Africa!

African Union is saying the UN authorized a no fly zone not a bombing campaign. The apparent excess force is being commented on. Wonder when the kitchen sink will be thrown at Gadda fi.
ManuT
BRFite
Posts: 595
Joined: 22 Apr 2005 23:50

Re: Libya No Fly Zone: Political and strategic aspects

Post by ManuT »

X-posting my 2 cents from W Asia thread to Libya specific thread
ManuT wrote:I am for the removal Gadha-fi and certainly won't shed any tears for him or his sons. Whatever hope there is, it is in him not perpetuating, and therein lies the possibility of change. With his continuation things will be the same. It is possible that there might be another dictator but one cannot change the game without changing the players.

India at UN somehow talks a lot with feeble responses. If anything, I see Indian reps speech at the UN as babu-speak.

Replace Libya with Burma (with no oil) and I can see India's same response at a later date, sometime in the future, in it's backyard (and call it policy). If one wants to shape events one must move with speed. It seems GOI wanted to wait till of resistence had been bombed and allowing smug Gadha-fi claim that there is no opposition!

As already pointed out Gadha-fi babbled about making Kashmir independent a while back that should have cost him Indian neutrality, if there was any need for it.

---
Added Later: IMO, Kanishka bombing == Lockerbie bombing.
ManuT
BRFite
Posts: 595
Joined: 22 Apr 2005 23:50

Re: Libya No Fly Zone: Political and strategic aspects

Post by ManuT »

Singha, Sir
Singha wrote:I have a feeling they are aiming at a West Libya (Qadhafi) and East Libya (rebels) partition. the rebel area would be a UN protectorate for a while until Qadhafi signs a peace treaty and effectively splits Libya formally. there will be some relocation of people from the west to east.

so far no signs they are attempting to uproot qadhafi by targeting him or leadership nodes.

Sudan and Ethiopia have split. Libya is next.

not sure if west libya would be left with any oilfields. if there are none or little, we shall see an example of what happens to a non-industrialized arab state when the oil runs out - they'd have to go back to selling dates, camel hides and sand. :mrgreen: off-beat eco and postwar tourism of bomber out airbases would attract some planespotter type faithfuls.

we have no dog in this fight. cordial economic relations with both halves can be resumed in terms of subcontracts for rebuilding and indian workers, but the Euros/US will claim the top level contracts and skim the fatter margins. after all, they are doing all the dog work now.
Posted same thought in the other thread, minutes apart.

Quite possible, an exile offer to KSA is still there for Gadha-fi & sons on the table...



Also,

From
Singha wrote:unless the air raids start in earnest tonight from europe, the rebels will be but a footnote in the sands of history.
.
.
.

To
Singha wrote:game is on boys.

NDTV:
dutch PM says anglo-french may carry out first strikes tonight
french recon planes are in libyan airfrance
France TV: france fighters already over benghazi to enforce nofly zone .... (must be m2k or rafale)

time to fetch the pepsi and snacks and watch the les chevalier du ciel show.
Can see the turnaround right there.
habal
BRF Oldie
Posts: 6922
Joined: 24 Dec 2009 18:46

Re: LIBYA : No fly zone/air war thread

Post by habal »

Singha wrote:we have no dog in this fight. cordial economic relations with both halves can be resumed in terms of subcontracts for rebuilding and indian workers, but the Euros/US will claim the top level contracts and skim the fatter margins. after all, they are doing all the dog work now.
Anybody heard of Iraqi oil after 2003. Why shouldn't we have a dog in this fight saar.

& since when did No Fly Zone mean carpet bombing everything in sight viz military columns, gaddafi's compound etc. America has been a tool for Euro elitists for some time now. Also the wording of the operation is highly suspect. Odyssey 'Dawn'. Dawn of what ? A dawn of satan ? Better call it operation triple 6.

Next round of war may well be fought at our doorstep. The ME is being tamed of all radical leaders (even though tinpots) who can take a strong stand on any matter and are being replaced with pipsqueaks. It may well be for a strong reason. Ground is being prepared for assault against Saudi or Pakistan.
Theo_Fidel

Re: Libya No Fly Zone: Political and strategic aspects

Post by Theo_Fidel »

ManuT wrote:India at UN somehow talks a lot with feeble responses. If anything, I see Indian reps speech at the UN as babu-speak.
Babu speak is conservative. This was not conservative. This entire thing is too clever by half. If we are a democracy we better start acting like one. By abstaining what was the point of our oh so precious seat.
Look at our other 'partners'. China, Russia, Brazil & Germany (pacifist). The entire BRIC crowd.
You know the same crowd that benefits from the West maintained peace. The same crowd that in 20 years will have to spend blood and treasure maintaining this peace.

Spineless.

As far as Gaddafi, he has spent much money on TSP infrastructure. Many structures there are named after him.
Lalmohan
BRF Oldie
Posts: 13257
Joined: 30 Dec 2005 18:28

Re: Libya No Fly Zone: Political and strategic aspects

Post by Lalmohan »

putin has just made some statements saying he thinks its gone too far
bbc is reporting that india has asked for air strikes to stop
chinese view is not known...
Klaus
BRF Oldie
Posts: 2168
Joined: 13 Dec 2009 12:28
Location: Cicero Avenue

Re: Libya No Fly Zone: Political and strategic aspects

Post by Klaus »

Italy seems to be wanting to make up to the amir-khans due to the Wikileaks exposure of how their satellite launch by ISRO caused serious takleef to the agreements on critical technologies, resulting in angry outbursts by the yanks. This renting out of bases is just compensation under the garb of being a NATO co-member.

Could Qadhaffi have had any agressive invasion designs against Algeria by any chance, ala Saddam-Kuwait? Are we seeing Gulf-War 1 redux with France the saviours of their ex-colony?
brihaspati
BRF Oldie
Posts: 12410
Joined: 19 Nov 2008 03:25

Re: Libya No Fly Zone: Political and strategic aspects

Post by brihaspati »

Partition of Libya unlikely. Claims about not targeting Gaddafi is about trying to disarm him and his aides from doing somthing drastic. But after all this, Gaddafi will only be hailed in asylum by Hugo Chavez - by which Chavez will earn the undying attentions of future North African regimes, and any hopes of a smooth link up with Iran through the Med will be gone.

So Gaddafi will have to be terminated, and there is little choice left even for KSA etc. Theyw ere trying to tell him to not to force them to abandon him - but he didnt listen.
Lalmohan
BRF Oldie
Posts: 13257
Joined: 30 Dec 2005 18:28

Re: Libya No Fly Zone: Political and strategic aspects

Post by Lalmohan »

the US was very unhappy with the europeans for reopening links with the gaddafi regime, post xerox khan expose. so this is a good opportunity for unkil to give some tough love to berluscuddin and remind him who the capo di tutti capi is, capice?
SwamyG
BRF Oldie
Posts: 16271
Joined: 11 Apr 2007 09:22

Re: Libya No Fly Zone: Political and strategic aspects

Post by SwamyG »

Time to bad mouth India.
With Libya, is India confused or just too clever by half?
India abstained last week from a U.N. vote on the no-fly zone in Libya that also authorised military action, but since then it has been more vocal in its rejection of airstrikes, joining China and Russia in criticising the coalition of Western powers and the Arab league and its actions against the Libyan government.

“We regret the air strikes that are taking place in Libya. We are viewing ongoing violence with grave concern,” Foreign Minister S.M. Krishna told reporters on Monday, in comments carried by NDTV television channel. It echoed an official comment on Sunday.

India’s declarations signal that New Delhi will not step in line with the West despite its growing ties with the United States and Europe — highlighted by a string of visits last year, including President Barack Obama’s and the leaders of France and the United Kingdom.

This is not new. India for years has gone against U.S. interests in a string of geo-political issues, including Myanmar. But it has counted on the fact that it is now economically too important to be sidelined by any Western power due to any criticism of the West.

India, especially the ruling Congress party, still has deep roots in the Non-Aligned Movement. And domestically, it plays well with voters often skeptical of Western intentions.

Why then did India abstain in the U.N. vote? While China’s veto would have stopped the no-fly zone given Beijing’s status as a permanent member of the Security Council, India’s would have been a symbolic move.

China did not want to be seen blocking what is perceived by many as being a humanitarian mission. India would have just been a noted protest at the United Nations.

So again, there is a disparity between what India votes and what it says. Is India still unclear about where it stands globally? Or has it played a clever political game — a game that it has played for decades as a “non-aligned” power — that will pan out if the military airstrikes end in a stalemate?
Now let us look at what China thinks:
Indian abstainance from UN vote on Libya well-thought-out move: experts
Indian government officials and some political experts have hailed the "well-thought-out" move, saying that the country was right as it may have only worsen the Libyan people's woes, instead of mitigating them.
Ten of 15 members of the UN Security Council voted in favor of the resolution. The BRIC nations of Russia, China, India and Brazil plus Germany, however, stayed away.
According to foreign policy expert R.K. Dutta, India and other BRIC nations' abstainance only proved that these countries showed the international community that they are not willing to be too collaborative with the West.
http://www.spiegel.de/international/ger ... 64,00.html
SPIEGEL: Germany is the only Western country to abstain from voting on the Security Council resolution, siding with less democratic countries like Russia and China. Is this company that we should feel comfortable with?

Westerwelle: Don't forget Brazil and India. We abstained from voting because there was a major part of the resolution -- military intervention -- that we won't go along with. This was not an easy decision for us to make. It was preceded by a difficult evaluation process. I am convinced that it was the right decision.
Sign of changing tides to see India cited as an example.
joshvajohn
BRFite
Posts: 1516
Joined: 09 Nov 2006 03:27

Re: Libya No Fly Zone: Political and strategic aspects

Post by joshvajohn »

It is essential to get the Bengazi to come under one group or one committee which should call themselves as democratic reform group. This should be invited to Europe and US to share their plea. Then stop air raids and support this group giving them equipment to fight gaddafi. either they reach Tripoli or they declare their independence with oil cities from libya. This is inevitable.

Coalition assault gives Libyan opposition hope
http://www.abc.net.au/lateline/content/ ... 169935.htm

Libyan opposition in Paris as air intervention continues
http://www.english.rfi.fr/africa/201103 ... -continues
Klaus
BRF Oldie
Posts: 2168
Joined: 13 Dec 2009 12:28
Location: Cicero Avenue

Re: LIBYA : No fly zone/air war thread

Post by Klaus »

Singha wrote:
Sudan and Ethiopia have split. Libya is next.

not sure if west libya would be left with any oilfields. if there are none or little, we shall see an example of what happens to a non-industrialized arab state when the oil runs out - they'd have to go back to selling dates, camel hides and sand. :mrgreen: off-beat eco and postwar tourism of bomber out airbases would attract some planespotter type faithfuls.
Western Libya will become another dysfunctional Western Sahara, Leaves a country like Morocco with plenty of regional clout, as a prize for being pro-Israel.
shyamd
BRF Oldie
Posts: 7100
Joined: 08 Aug 2006 18:43

Re: Libya No Fly Zone: Political and strategic aspects

Post by shyamd »

Basically, everyone is wondering whats the end game? How do you pull out? They want to hopefully get some defections to join rebels. Let Gaddafi crumble from within.
AKalam
BRFite
Posts: 285
Joined: 04 Jan 2009 05:34
Location: Los Angeles
Contact:

Re: Libya No Fly Zone: Political and strategic aspects

Post by AKalam »

The best case scenario would be to let Libyan rebels fight it out with Gaddafi soldiers/mercenaries, while the coalition enforces a no-fly-zone and takes out heavy artillery of Qaddafi's army whenever they are deployed against towns or cities and engages with lightly armed rebel forces. In the meantime, there is hope that a wave of defection will implode the Gaddafi faction from within. The hired mercenaries would be lucky if they can run South with their lives and get out of Libya's borders before its too late for them, the Libyans will be kind to other misinformed Libyans, but mercenary soldiers may not receive the same treatment, I would guess. From the spirit we have seen from the rebel fighters so far, it is hardly likely that there will be a stalemate for long, as many US Generals and Pundits are claiming. I would give it at most 2-4 weeks, but then my uninformed prediction from afar could turn out to be very wrong.
shyamd
BRF Oldie
Posts: 7100
Joined: 08 Aug 2006 18:43

Re: Libya No Fly Zone: Political and strategic aspects

Post by shyamd »

Lots of people asking why Arabs/GCC not sending a serious force. 2 reasons:

1) Iran threat currently due to Bahrain unrest.
2) He's a shia supporter.
UBanerjee
BRFite
Posts: 537
Joined: 20 Mar 2011 01:41
Location: Washington DC

Re: Libya No Fly Zone: Political and strategic aspects

Post by UBanerjee »

It really depends on how much outside assistance and money will flow in to keep Gaddafi's forces alive and fighting, or barring that, to fund "insurgencies" along those lines, to keep Libya unstable.

It is important to remember that the reason why any invasion/attack/occupation by an overwhelming foreign power turns into a quagmire is because of outside assistance that is not or cannot be cut off. This is the central idea behind the ugly, protracted bloodshed in Soviet-Afghanistan, Vietnam, Iraq II and US-Afghanistan. In each of those cases an outside power was able to supply, arm and fund the opposition or insurgency to keep the struggle alive. The US and Gulf countries powered up opposition in Soviet-Af; the Soviets and Chinese powered up opposition in Vietnam; Iran and various neighboring Arab states funded and provided manpower for the insurgency in Iraq II; and Pakistan provides shelter and supply to keep the insurgency alive in US-Af.

Without such assistance I don't think Gaddafi can hold on too long, if the Western powers can arm and fund the rebels (as air power alone will certainly not do it, and I don't see the West or the Arab states putting boots on the ground bar some special forces operating without fanfare). Granted it will still be a matter of months instead of weeks unless Gaddafi makes an unceremonious exit to save his hide. Given the image he's created and some genuine lunacy on his part, I doubt he'll opt for that.

Geography also smooths the path for a quick turnaround. The vast desert areas can be safely ignored if one controls the center of power along the coast. There are no jungles or inhospitable terrain in this area for Gaddafi to wage an insurgency, the most he can do is try and draw out urban warfare. Libya is also quite close to the Western center of power and has no powerful neighbors, unlike Iraq or Afghanistan.
shyamd
BRF Oldie
Posts: 7100
Joined: 08 Aug 2006 18:43

Re: Libya No Fly Zone: Political and strategic aspects

Post by shyamd »

AKalam wrote: Whether Mr. Moussa's comment was due to pressure from Arab street, perhaps shyamd can tell us more as he is there on the ground and in a position to feel the pulse of the Arab public opinion.

Qatar and UAE air force will participate with their fighters, Turkey of late has also decided to contribute.
AKalamji please see my earlier post.

Moussa was talking out of line. God knows why. Official GCC opinion is "humanitarian concern" and a big reason why NFZ went ahead was because of tough talk from GCC.
shiv
BRF Oldie
Posts: 34981
Joined: 01 Jan 1970 05:30
Location: Pindliyon ka Gooda

Re: Libya No Fly Zone: Political and strategic aspects

Post by shiv »

UBanerjee wrote:It really depends on how much outside assistance and money will flow in to keep Gaddafi's forces alive and fighting, or barring that, to fund "insurgencies" along those lines, to keep Libya unstable.

It is important to remember that the reason why any invasion/attack/occupation by an overwhelming foreign power turns into a quagmire is because of outside assistance that is not or cannot be cut off. This is the central idea behind the ugly, protracted bloodshed in Soviet-Afghanistan, Vietnam, Iraq II and US-Afghanistan. In each of those cases an outside power was able to supply, arm and fund the opposition or insurgency to keep the struggle alive. The US and Gulf countries powered up opposition in Soviet-Af; the Soviets and Chinese powered up opposition in Vietnam; Iran and various neighboring Arab states funded and provided manpower for the insurgency in Iraq II; and Pakistan provides shelter and supply to keep the insurgency alive in US-Af.

Without such assistance I don't think Gaddafi can hold on too long, if the Western powers can arm and fund the rebels (as air power alone will certainly not do it, and I don't see the West or the Arab states putting boots on the ground bar some special forces operating without fanfare). Granted it will still be a matter of months instead of weeks unless Gaddafi makes an unceremonious exit to save his hide. Given the image he's created and some genuine lunacy on his part, I doubt he'll opt for that.

Geography also smooths the path for a quick turnaround. The vast desert areas can be safely ignored if one controls the center of power along the coast. There are no jungles or inhospitable terrain in this area for Gaddafi to wage an insurgency, the most he can do is try and draw out urban warfare. Libya is also quite close to the Western center of power and has no powerful neighbors, unlike Iraq or Afghanistan.
Good points

The bombing of Kosovo, the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan and now this reminds me of the time when my dog had pups. The dog would bark at intruders at the gate while the pups learned to bark at intruders who came near their pen. Each gets aggressive depending on his reach and capability. The pups could do nothing about the gate.

The forces of Britain, France and Italy are operating in their own backyard when the have to attack Kosovo, Libya or even Iraq and hence enthusiastically test their ASMPs, Storm Shadows etc. But when it comes to Afghanistan - only the US has the capability.

To me the deeper lesson is that if you are in a nation that is unfortunate enough to be in the backyard of NATO - then you will be dominated by both the US and European powers.

if you are further away the US can directly intervene or play games with you providing arms to your opponent. Imagine how the Chinese feel about Taiwan. That, of course is how we (at least I) feel about Pakistan. Luckily for India the Europeans are not close enough to exert dominance as they used to do. Libya is not so lucky.

Colonialism lives on under some other name - with a large proportion of people dhimmified to believe that the actions of the colonialists are righteous.
brihaspati
BRF Oldie
Posts: 12410
Joined: 19 Nov 2008 03:25

Re: Libya No Fly Zone: Political and strategic aspects

Post by brihaspati »

^^Perhaps. But people need not think of neo-imperialists as "righteous" to use them for their own agenda. Should we call the Congress's successful bid for rashtryia power of Bharat using the WWII conflict between the Allied powers and the Axis powers -and the Brits gifting a peaceful transfer of power a falling for the trap of imperialist righteousness?

Maybe the Libyan opposition to Gaddafi are no fools either - and they are simply using the imperialists to achieve just a first step?
SaiK
BRF Oldie
Posts: 36427
Joined: 29 Oct 2003 12:31
Location: NowHere

Re: Libya No Fly Zone: Political and strategic aspects

Post by SaiK »

indeed.. they were given advanced notice before the air strikes, meaning there is a high level of coordination between coalition forces and the rebels.

gadhaffi days are numbered.
shiv
BRF Oldie
Posts: 34981
Joined: 01 Jan 1970 05:30
Location: Pindliyon ka Gooda

Re: Libya No Fly Zone: Political and strategic aspects

Post by shiv »

brihaspati wrote: Maybe the Libyan opposition to Gaddafi are no fools either - and they are simply using the imperialists to achieve just a first step?
No doubt that this is possible. But my cynicism arises from observing who gets to die and who gets war practice.

I would be going OT if I said that "Pakistan" could be considered a part of India where people who were opposed to a perceived leadership in pre-independence India (like the Libyan opposition to Gadhafi) "used" the imperialists to carve out a country for themselves and have continued to do that ever since, even as they served the same imperialists as mercenaries. It is a two edged sword and cheering or jeering depends on which edge is closer. I see more cheering than jeering on BRF, but the GoI seems to be doing more jeering than cheering.
brihaspati
BRF Oldie
Posts: 12410
Joined: 19 Nov 2008 03:25

Re: Libya No Fly Zone: Political and strategic aspects

Post by brihaspati »

Don't really know what has got into GOI heads. They simply appear to have excused themselves from leadership. Its not a crime in international skull-duggery to take a position once and then deny it the next round coming. That will be admired and cheered as real-politik! But appearing indecisive is political suicide. Even then it would be something if India was unique in being indecisive. Even there it would appear that India simply followed others in indecision and playing it safe.
Theo_Fidel

Re: Libya No Fly Zone: Political and strategic aspects

Post by Theo_Fidel »

SaiK wrote:indeed.. they were given advanced notice before the air strikes, meaning there is a high level of coordination between coalition forces and the rebels.

gadhaffi days are numbered.
Absolutely. There is a lot of coordination and preparation going on behind the scenes.

The more I look at the map the more it is certain that Sirte is the key. If the Rebels can take that city they will be unopposed to Tripoli. Once they arm the Tripoli population it will all be over.
Singha
BRF Oldie
Posts: 66589
Joined: 13 Aug 2004 19:42
Location: the grasshopper lies heavy

Re: Libya No Fly Zone: Political and strategic aspects

Post by Singha »

Chankian niti says we ally ourselves with whichever cause or coalition furthers our short and medium term interests and jump ships at opportune moments. long term nobody can be predict.

I see a lot of people demanding that India should become a superpower to be 'immune' to anything

but let me remind that the P5 and certainly not USA & USSR got to where they are following the dharmic path and avoiding risks. they have done a lot of bad things (like screwing some countries N times over) and taking lots of calculated risks along the path.

there is no other way. if you want power you need to put dharma aside and bend/break/skirt the rules and make up things as you go along.

the GOI is not following that path, has never followed it. to me, the demands and expectations of media and forumites that India would be a superpower sound hollow.

if we cannot go in and beat up a couple of local thieves, we cannot demonstrate intent to rule the whole town and cow down rivals.

"the body of a giant, trapped by the brain of a sheep"
abhishek_sharma
BRF Oldie
Posts: 9664
Joined: 19 Nov 2009 03:27

Re: Libya No Fly Zone: Political and strategic aspects

Post by abhishek_sharma »

Does the World Belong in Libya's War?

http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2 ... libyas_war
Yes. Now Let's Hope It's Not Too Late. - By Roméo Dallaire with Jeffrey Bernstein

Not Until We Know What We're Getting Into - By Micah Zenko

The U.S. Is Right Not to Own It - By Robert D. Kaplan

This Could Be Obama's Defining Moment - By Shadi Hamid

The Security Council Has At Last Lived Up To Its Duty - By Kenneth Roth

How to Save Benghazi - By Robert Pape

A Day to Celebrate, But Hard Work Ahead - By Anne-Marie Slaughter

Failing To Act Would Send the Wrong Message - By Paula J. Dobriansky

Libya doesn't meet any of the criteria for a humanitarian intervention. We should do it anyway - By James Traub

Plus, from FP's blogs:

The World, Yes -- The U.S., Maybe Less So - By Steven M. Walt

The U.S. Even More So - By Kori Schake


As Quickly As Possible - By Thomas E. Ricks

With Fingers Crossed - By Peter Feaver

Yes or No, It's About Obama - By David Rothkopf

The Real Question Is, How Will the World Get Out? - By Marc Lynch
Singha
BRF Oldie
Posts: 66589
Joined: 13 Aug 2004 19:42
Location: the grasshopper lies heavy

Re: Libya No Fly Zone: Political and strategic aspects

Post by Singha »

Qadhafi's hope is the unclear question of whether the idea is to stop him but let him stay or to get him out will split the alliance and lead to a watered down least-common-level wherein he comfortably retains western and southern libya and the levels control a small 'country' in eastern libya under UN protection.

he will pull back his forces to safer non-threatening positions and try to wait this out...if he doesnt attack, the UN mandate does not cover NATO supporting rebel attacks technically.
shiv
BRF Oldie
Posts: 34981
Joined: 01 Jan 1970 05:30
Location: Pindliyon ka Gooda

Re: Libya No Fly Zone: Political and strategic aspects

Post by shiv »

Ambar wrote:AP reporting Gadhafi's compound hit by allied airforce. The front of the 4 ft thick walled building has been completely reduced to rubble. Are heavy strategic bombers being used or is it just the handy work of F-16s and Rafales ?
This can be done by JASSM on F-16 or Storm Shadow. Heavy Strategic Bombers are passe for this sort of work.
Post Reply