Dr. Bharat Karnad: Guest Speaker at BRF NJ MEET Nov 13 2011

[RamaY]

I have audio recording of the speech on my iPhone. Will try to post relevant sections. I posted one comment in future scenarios under Burkha thread.

[Philip]

Great show guys! Tx a million to BK for his insight into our security chllenges,wish one was there to ask him a few Qs.

[ramana]

Philip, Post your questions anyway, maybe he will read them.

[archan]

Great show guys! Tx a million to BK for his insight into our security chllenges,wish one was there to ask him a few Qs.

I had so many more to ask, but unfortunately there wasn't enough time. I told him in the end, we needed four more hours of you.

[member_20292]

Posting my rough half transcript of what Bharat Karnad said. Please reformat as you deem suitable. Cheers,
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Indias ocean
I tanker to 5 capital ships.
2035
250 – 300 pak fas
Mmrca –200-300
No jsfs .

Work in progress = jsf. USNavy and Marines are going to junk it.
India white knight to many industries. Fool being separated from its money. Failure of our military services to build up indigenous capabilities.

6 7 gps satellites. All the way from Israel . flotilla presence from Vietnam to India.

Hf 24 marut was shirt sighted and shorted.
Failure of our services to give support. Hf 24 finest plane of its time. Kurt tank.
Sshort sighted service . Everyone puts their hands into our pockets.
Nha thrang. Base offered to India. Indian navy was offered another base. Good Deep water port.
Line of sight to Hainan island.
Telemetry readings. James Bond Hainan island. Submarines cannot be tracked.
We cannot thermal layers. In Indian ocean. ASW frigates. Talwar class have excellent ships. Sonar developed by Indian Stanford Professor. Israelis helping in Naval matters.
Drop on Hainan. Hinders movement for the PLAN. South China fleet is as powerful as the Harbin Northern Fleet. Southern fleet is not that powerful. Chinese target.

Air force. Strong ability . 18 refuellers. Fighters can be on combat air patrol. Based out of Car Nivobar. Sortie into the South China Sea.
15 AWACS. High arial battle management .

Navy operationally exercise with the best of the west and have gained the respect of the foreign navies.
Carriers are highly tough to learn how to operate. Chinese keep very close to the carrier, as they are line of sight ships as they do not have the .

Indian navy took a long time to ingrate the aircraft carrier. We have a lead of 20-35 years in the Navy. We have to

Wars of the future . BVR are worse than useless. Fivth plan commission. I said just get rid of things like COPRS. Consolidate it into groups. Put the money into developing offensive mountain warfare divisions.
Raised two divisions for offensive warfare. Means nothing . being half pregnant. Either you have the capability or you have not. There was a conference. What are you doing the two plus two divisions. Defensive line behind the line of actual control. Conceding 100 miles to the Chinese.
Tibet is a flat high terrain desert. We have to build up roads. We have to do well. We have to be able to reinforce our forward bases.
We have a disadvtanges in the the mountainous terrain. They are exchanged their ships they have to terriroty.
Raja Menon.
Our air force is crippled by the lack of strategic operational cells. It sees itself as a regional adjunct to the Royal Air Force. You have whiled away your time in not having anything other than short legged aircraft.
In 1971 India was offered the Backfire Tu 22. With Indian air force roundels painted on them, ready to take off for India.


Air Marshall you are the test pilot. Ergonomically not very good. They are made for fighting. You are not ergonomically beautiful. You are made for flying. Sitting in the racing car. You need to know when you change the gears. We got to see the hard machines. Unless the driver has a feel of the ground, you will not know how to do it.

Russians are very hard, mig 21 , you are on the steel plate directly. Think of what a Tu 22 in strategic bomber would have done to you. It can carry 10 tonnes. Point is that you should upgrade. Air Force that thinks that they are not thinking too well. Lost 60 years of capability.

Plugging for the Tu 160 Blackjack. Manned platform is a recallable option in war. Missile once fired stays fired. You can abort the nuclear explosion. Every day warning to the adversary.
B 52 24 hours the day , they’re going to get it. You don’t want to make a mistake. War by mischance or happenchance. Air Marshall NAK Browne. We have the refuellers. You have Su 50 and Su 30 MKI , which air force talks about as a medium as a medium range bomber.

Tactical routing of the aircraft. Where are you going to place the refuellers. They are not going to
Suicide missions to Moscow France. Mirage 5. They did not have range, so you have a one way range. One way thermonuclear bomb. Suicide mission to long range . Drop the bomb and scoot for you life.
Air defence is so thick. But in a nuclear war, all the balloons are going to be up. You might get a bomb in Delhi or you are blown up in the skies of Beijing.


Tu 160 Blackjack. Very costly to upokeep. If you want the option then you have to pay for it.

Expeditionary powers. NAK Browne. But we are not expeditionary. You are not going to bomb the next door. AK Antony made a statement to the Naval Commanders that you will be the next;
We are going to go in for 6 landing dock platforms. You can brigade , you can do what you want. You can land forces in a bulk way. You can have 6 LSTs LSUs are less useful.
Offer Vietnam the security. Vietnam govt. leaking to the international. Govt of India is reluctant to have any problems with China. You may have all the wereithall you want, but if you do not have the will to do things than you are useless.
Indian army that captured a lot of things for the British world war 2.
We have to lose our Pakistan fixation. For 60 years we have lost our attention on fixating on Pakistan. It was and will never be a credible threat to India. Pakistan GDPs is one fourth of the market capitalisaation of BSE.

Pakistan has been a . Fly in the ointment. It is eminently co-optable. Clean Genl Sundarji. In my first book. We have to begin a lot more generous and think of thinks from Pakistans pinit of view.
Pakistan is a buffer from the Islamic virus. Huge problems being created for the Pakistan Army. Partition was excellent. If the Pakistani army cannot deal with it, that means the .
MFN status is a good beginning. Three years ago on the verge of credit default. Please give them the 5 billion dollars. Think of Pakistan as a buffer.
Undermine TSPAs two nation ideology. Kautilya said. Best way to win is by winning by non forceful means. Secures India and the region. We have alienated all our neighbours, and now we have the money to win them back. No problem. Withdraw nuclearized missiles from the border. Move them to the Tibetan plateau. China has 200 SBMs on the Tibetan plateau. Downward targeting. Longer range missiles are excellent. Base 856. Dong fengs. DF is 2-3 Megaton. We have 20 kiloton.

Mind games. That you areplaying on peoples fears. What is Chinas’ fears? Empowerment on the main things.
Think of what the nation needs. The Chinese open up their DF 21s for firing. PM bring them on. We have 20 kiloton. If you have 20 kilton , you do not have that many missiles to create the large

K Subrahmanyam. Use your brains. We are not talking about sustained nuclear war. Once the balloon goes up, everything is gone. Prior to the first launch. To prevernt the first launch. Because our thermonuclear is a failure.
K S Santhanam who came out in September in 2009, that our stuff is crazy. Hindi language journalist.
We
Seismic data and all. Doesn’t make sense at all. Yesterday at dinner. The main dinner. Guess who finally agreed with me. Ashley Tellis. Agreed with me. Bharat, you are right, you have to test again. The American reaction will not be as inimical as you think. Americans are not going to be the ones who are facing the Chinese weapons. Who will take care of our interests. Our talk of hedging and all bullshit is nonsense. Upto the point of firing, they are all friends. When it comes to China war, no one will help you.

If all else fails, you have to Chinas attack. Our patrol stations have to be off the Chinese Sea. Japanese berthing facility. Vietnam.
Submarines need to be there everywhere.

We have to equalize the situation. Our missiles have to be very accurate. Enough to give sleepless nights to any adversary. If we have thermonuclear capability with that amount of the accuracy.
We have to wage war in Tibet. They have been fudning our north east rebels for the fourty years.
Talk Panchsheel but do something else.
Rig vedic hindu. Sacrificed Cows and Bulls and ate them Rambunctious culture. Violent culture. How unrestful it is. For us to then pretend that we are pacific culture. Hardness in us. Rigveda that gave us. English commentary on Rig Veda. Hair raising axioms of rig veda. Descriptions of Brahmastra. Typified them as fire and forget missiles. Imagination was very strong. You ahd the imagination to conceptualize such weapons. We don’t have to go to anybody else. Hard realpolitik. Somehow we become imprisoned in the rhetoric of a pacifist nation. And that is the reason for we became effete.
We became pacific and Buddhist after the battle of Kalinga. Everybody in Kalinga was put to death after the king had surrendered. This is a holocaust. After I have killed off all my enemies, I became pacifist. Chakravarthy. Every minor king wanted to become a chakravarthy or chakravarthin. All of India became mired in squabbles. People had become tired of fighting and killing. After that Buddhism started gaining root. Adi Shankaracharya co-opted the culture of non violence into Hinduism. Nalanda was burned out. Kidnapped all Buddhists. Merged all of the Buddhists notions of peace into Hinduism. That was the ingrest of Islam. Because it was able to kill the Buddhists and all.

There is so much tthere to be us to be rooted in. So much hard realpolitik in the basic notions of India and all. Might not do the real best things even after

We are free riders of security. They are not going to protect you against China or anybody. What makes you think that America is going to get into the line of fire to save you or anybody. This is not what should animate the thinking of people in Delhi.

Gurudas of Sati. When Mahishasura comes. If you have to kill any number.

When the Chinese did not have any of these weapons. Chinese embassy was bombed. Chinese were decoding the F 117 signals. The Chinese deputy chief of staff . At their invitation I stayed for 6 weeks at China. Why they got me there. To hear me talk the things about the Chinese. Say what you want. The skepticism was not that we cant do it. But do you have the ability to do it. You cant count on the same govt is there in Delhi.


Consolditate strike corps in Pakistan border. What happens if the tide is breached on the Pakistan border. What are the offensive formations on the Chinese side. The things is to get forces into the Tibetan plateau. Screw the ****** Pakistanis. Lets have the Apache longbows on the Chinese side. We are going hypersonic on the Brahmso. That is a truly truly (emphasis ) formidable weapon.

Came to see me in my center. Thanked me profusely. The history of Vietnamese chinese history. Vietnamese talk of thousand years of enmity of China. They have been beaten black and blue. They are a unique people. Beat the Japanese. Japanese colony, Ho Chi Minh. Tail end of the Japanese forces in Burma. Across Thailand and the railway they built . They beat th eFrench.

Every time. Dien Bien Fuh. Beat . Wong Jiah. Sargent in the French colonial army. \

Arm the buggers with hypersonic cruise missiles. Will not fight with the Chinese in the Indian ocean.


We were three days from caputirng muzzafarabad in 1948. Later became . Bogey Singh. Was commanding the 108 brigade. That was our formational strength . Gets the order from Cn C India, Roy Buca to deploy 90 degrees north this is the change of axis of advance. How slender was the thread. What kind of an order is this. I am going to take Muzzafarabad.
Sheikh Abdullah goes to Nehru and tells him Panditji, of you take Muzzafarabad and take it, then Muslim conference will win. Mirpuri muslims that are inhabiting that part of Kashmir are going to vote for the other party. Hence the order to abandon advance to Muzzafarabad and move North to Kargil. This
India has bever fought a war. The best description of India Pakistan wars is Maj Genl D K Panditn DGMO chinese ops. Communal riots with tanks. Exaclty correct. For the first time a detailed analysis of India Pakistan wars was done, by Bharat Karnad. Monty Pandit. I am never funny or facile. You are scholar soldier of tremendous merit. All of India Pakistan wars fit the parameters of riots. Space constraint, intensity constraint, velocity constraint.

War happening ten miles from Amritsar, people are partying. Critical consequences in 1971. Tiger Niazi. You are surrounded in a 5000 km border, you stretch your forces . 33 core made a run for Dhaka, and it lies vacant. Stupid. Pakistanis scooted. Paratroopers. Pakistanis lost their nerve. Indian paratroopers less than a company of a 10 para. They lost their minds. End of the operation. Foolish military strategy combined with alienating the whole of Bangladesh, treating them like second class ctiizens.



Now the Pakistanis have become more smart. We were in Batanagar, which is 8 miles from Lahore center. India Pakistan wars are nonsense. One leader comes in and changed the whoel things
Harbaksh Singh comes and changes the whole thing. B M Kaul. Immediately was hospitalized. Acting commanders DOC.

Taking Lahore would have mean the dismemberment of Pakistan. You want another 180 million muslims to join India. 180 million madcaps. Pakistan virus. Mullahs making life haram for you.

You cant handle Lashkar trained out of Muridke. You should wish for Pakistan to stabilize and to thrive and win. I have met Sardar Bugti. They are mad that our support is inconstant. Maybe we are aiding and abetting the Balochis. Even our support is inconstant. We turn on the tap on and off. We carried with the Mukti Bahini and got results. If you take out Baluchistan, then you will have gilgit baltistan and Sindh. No political culture is there in those small foolish states Sindh and others you are going to deal with them? You are nto able to deal with your own peaceful states like UP and Bihar. You will deal with them?


Again there is a lot of nuclear signaling happens. 2007 I was invited to Multan Bahawalpur.
They have no access. I have a straightforward briefing from Chaklalus. They say. Chief chaklal. Major General Kausa Ali. Looks like exactly like Saurav Ganguly.
Has slides on and all. Gave Bharat Karnad is . We are aware that the Israeli American Indian intelligence. We are also aware that 70% of our assets are mapped. The rest 30% you will never find. Met Israel deputy NSA and all. The 30% of nuclear warheads is a lot.
Thus taking out the warheads. Can you take control of their nuclear weapons and warheads. 70% yes and 30% no. Every time you send people to see them they are killed.


Conventional . What Ausaf Ali said. Their control of their weapons is much better than our control of our weapons. The care they take to ensure the safety of their nuclear assets. Those are their crown jewels. Ausaf Ali. Main talk there was someone . Minder was there . Sorry Karnad sahib , ab chalna hai. There was a minder there all the times. You can see from the body language that he was willing to give some answer. His minder was someone who had the authority to stop anything. Their surveillance was cradle to grave for the strategic plans divisions. In our Indian setup we have a lot of transference between Army and the Nuclear weapons core. We have no surveillance like that. Think how careful they are about their assets.
Can they do something in terms of nuclear terrorism. You can have a dirty bomb. Breakdown of law and order and hysteria.
Japan is a nuclear weapon power wich people don’t know. What the PM said. Shintaro Abe said. Who is our best strategic friends. Vietnam. Japan. The ASEAN states are there. Smaller states. Maldives Seychelles, they want us to come in. They want us to come in. Russia is there. But if it regains is cold war elan, then it will be a good player. Vladimir Putin needs to do a lot. Because they would want to stand off China. French. Absolutely. Not Qatar. Qatar is a mainline western state.
Oman is a friend. Sultan Qabooz. He wanted an Indian army detachment. Central Asian states are very friendly. Tajikistan. Squadron of Su 30s . Detachment in mission. North Pincer of Su 30 MKIs. Best planes short of the F 22 raptor.

We have to develop a Tibetan card. They are to be developed and trained and they want to be paradropped. They want to be trained. And weaponed and all.
Why do you act so weak.
Lot of lamenting. We can see that in the Congress and the rest of it . From a National Security standpoint, do you see a significant difference in policy. It matters a great deal. Who is in command and what it thinks needs to be done and how to do it. NDA and congress has a great difference.
Is there a way of isolating the national interests from the party in power. We can talk about it but it does not happen.

Greek orthodox Christianity . Gandhi was not a Hindu. Now we have to live up to Gandhian image of ourselves. Basically Christian.
Islam is as much Indian as Hinduism. Indian military officers are upset when I say that. We have organic links with Pakistan. We have ties with Pakistan of clothes and . There is no difference in India and Pakistan. It is a composite culture. If you go to Peshawar and all. In 1982. I K Gujral. I was a smart enducated young guy. Pakistan is not a threat. Lets deal with them.
Indian made foreign liquor called Peter Scott. Hugely prized in Pakistan. 6 casks of Peter Scott. Accha Kholiye. Yeh kya hai. Peter Scott hai. Presentation ke liye. Brazen. I was a guest of the Govt of Pakistan. The liaison officer came from the Pakistani army. For medicinal purposes. Went to Peshawar. Completely used the Govt of Pakistan passport . Lets go everywhere. Khyber rifles mess. Rangers mess. Call your CO. Show enormous confidence they just don’t know what to do. The Mohammed Khan Afridi. King of Khyber Rifles. Silver of the Khyber rifles is awesome in captured silver. Flashed my passport. My CO is not there. I am here to see your famous silver. Samosa party. Tremendous Silver. All campaigns in Afghanistan. Famous greens hotel in Peshawar. Roudn the corner there is film theater. Go to the box office. ..lost

Going to buy the Longbows. Why are we buying them or not. Position them and all. I Longbows are meant for the western front. They are not going to be used for counter insurgency..its mainly of supporting the advancing armour and all.

Cold Start is a new name for the old story. If in any time you see the military campaign, you have to see the axis of advance.
Axis of advance in the desert. Punjab area has ditch cum bundh are obstacles to tanks. Horrific advancement of the tanks. Make a large advance in the desert. Entire axis of advance in RahimyarKhan. What does cold start say.
We have a ready to go force which moves in 92 hours from word go. On the ouside in 48hours.
What are the tank formations that are first moving. They are from the pivot cores. They are from the armours. The armored formations will coalesce into as many as eight battle groups. Your eight battlegroups quickly reconstitute and keep moving. Ambala 21 core from Mathura and from Jhansi. Take off point on the border. That is the idea. The reason it will not work I have always said is this. Don’t cross our redline. Karachi Peshawar redline. Short of that it does not matter, it is the desert. Take it if you like. How far if you like. You can go in as many oil high octane petrol. You can carry at most one tank t 90, will carry will go 2km per liter at most. 15 or 20 km per hour. 30 km per hour is battle speed. Turbines are gushing power. They are not internal combustion. You have to refuel from your own carry stocks. Lorry. You are waiting from the strike core to take over. Waiting for the logistics core to catch up.
Can you see it. You cannot fight an opened war forever. Then this does nto matter. North Africa. Desert. If there is a time constraint like international pressure. Occupy territory as a negotiating chip. Why are you so scared. No. They are not transformers.



What is the best punitive strike. Ariel strike is the best. Surgical strike. It is not in the vested interests of certain things. SOOO much mental masturbation soooo much of it.

Who wants to lose 50 60 mjor general rank cores.
If I am a major general in the amroed core then my raison detre is the cold start. Major General in HQ are not fighting. But if you go into the SHQ and all , they are NOT major generals. Now they want to become Leutenant Generals. They get noticed by the DG Armor. Good people like A K Singh. He was my NDC student. ADG perspective planning. He can do it. Do some reasonable nice thing. You are not allowed by armor people. Why are you doing this.



Unless R CHidambaran goes from office as the advisor Science and technology. Bugger. We don’t need to test. 1985 we don’t need to test. Bloody idiot. As a physicist. World class crystallographer. You can be great this and that. But strategy is different.
Makers of atom bombs are not the best strategists of nuclear warfare.
A political class that believes that Abdul Kalam is the father of the nuclear bomb.

We have eleven designs on the shelves that deserve to be tested. You all are brain power people, you know that we are good. If we are given a chance to flower, we will be the best in the world.

We have thermonuclear warheads but we cannot guarantee the performance of the yield.


Americans have 125 kilotons. So we have to have the same. We have a separate reality. Of China. How come China is constrained by 125 kiloton. We have MIRVs since 2005. But Manmohan Singh has stopped it. We are very close to perfecting MIRVs. But at the same time. Trememdous accuracy. Because we are sending up perfect satellites which are exactly the same as MIRVs the payloads are exactly like that.


Army is much behind the technologically intensive platforms like the Air Force or the Navy.

If you consider the American military. They talk about network centric security. The next best most modern army is the British army. Israel is the same as the British. Why. If you invest money, you get the output in terms of money and performance. American army spends , eight years ago is about 128,000-300,000 $ per soldier. The British Military which is the second best military spends exactly have that. Indian army spends 10,000 $ . If you spend that , then you get that much. Simple as that. What is the Link 20. Extraordinary access to every thing. Do you have anything like the link 20. That’s what you will need for tomorrows war. Marshalling your assets very quickly and responding to that. Responding very quickly.

Chinese top edge is much better than our top edge. But our bulk army is better than the Chinese bulk. We have a good bulk.
Indian air force is far better. Far better. yaay.

Malabar exercises. Our navy is highly regarded in the US.


Moinuddin haider. Withdraw missiles from Pakistan border.

Withdraw nuclear forces. Interest of Pakistan army to create the bogey called india.
Incentives to TSPA. Let us build a security architecture based on Jinnahs template. As if they confronted God. Jinnah is god. September 1946 only leader in India to have some familiarity with military matters. Indian members Motilal Nehru and M A Jinnah. Muslim India is the guardian of the wstern margins. Hindu India .
TSPA is a professional air force. AF is very very good. Navy is insignificant. Brushed Indian ship. Shivalik destroyer. Bharat people are working sub-surface.

[SaiK]

GoI is normally scared to death in dealing with P5 nations especially China. We could attribute this to some extent by the nature of politicians, cultural values, their age, etc. But, there is also an institutional/social backing to this scare, in the sense, there is a larger group of people who actually feed to the top, about the dos and donts. More than the harm it does, there are lot of missed opportunities with this fear. Great power play is not possible unless strategic people provide the real backup to political setup.

What is BK's plan to remove this fear and it's setup?

[ramana]

Gives me lots of ideas on dealing with our pet neighbors.
We need to go assymetric and move away from more begets more.

[ShauryaT]

GoI is normally scared to death in dealing with P5 nations especially China. We could attribute this to some extent by the nature of politicians, cultural values, their age, etc. But, there is also an institutional/social backing to this scare, in the sense, there is a larger group of people who actually feed to the top, about the dos and donts. More than the harm it does, there are lot of missed opportunities with this fear. Great power play is not possible unless strategic people provide the real backup to political setup.

What is BK's plan to remove this fear and it's setup?

I do not think, political reform is BK's forte. For that there are others, like Pratap Bhanu Mehta, Subhash Kashyap, Arun Shourie. But in a nutshell, he does think that politics affects policy.

I am pointing the obvious because many here and others think that all Politicians are the same and that it does not matter, who is in power - the resounding answer is it does make a huge difference to policy, based on who and what party is in power. So, the least we can do, is go to your grass roots and ensure that we elect competent people.

[SaiK]

I disagree. live asses == dead lions, here. not all are voted on the basis of knowledge in international politics [for that matter certain candidates in masan republican party can't get gov dept names correct]. We do have a cream of professionals (if not, better have it) to deal with strategy for great power relationship.

This is not about politicians and their internal politics. This is about strategies. If we don't have it, we will perish with a rising population who are willing to forgive and forget, and perhaps follow Japan model for national security.

[yantra]

Great work Shaurya and other Jis. In one of the first audios BK ji says Antony said something to the naval commander conference, the audio ended there, what did Antony say at the naval commander conference? BK ji is somewhat soft towards the pakis while asking us to realise our organic strength from the vedas, didnt really understand why.

Also regarding the testing of the bigger device the audio ended midway

It is about the defense forces getting sanction to become an expeditionary force. Anthony said that the defense forces have to be prepared to defend island nations from Madagascar to Malacca Straits.

[Hitesh]

Negi download the files on to your phone and listen. Its good stuff and one cant get such insight.

Well I can't do that. Since I am hearing impaired, I can't understand recordings or audio files. A transcript would be nice to have.

[yantra]

I must say that I purposely left out his commentary on the steady inclusion of pacifism in Hinduism and the associated negative impacts. I am a Hindu myself but I thought including those comments in this summary would detract from the primary message vis-a-vis Pakistan, China and nuclear deterrence, of which there is plenty to talk about as it is. I'd recommend interested BRFites listen to the audio.

Yes folks should listen to the audio, but there was a larger point there that at a conceptual level India is following a Gandhian defined image of Hinduism, which is far from the truth of what Hinduism or Hindu history is about. I thought, it was one of the best parts of the BK talk (as the other parts of this talk are fairly well known to me), I have not heard him speak on this before. It tells you about the key thoughts and make up the person's outlook.

Archan Ji: When you have time, please do upload your recordings. Apologies folks for the mess up, my recording line disconnected after every 15 minutes and hence bits of information are missing.

It was one of the most insightful talks on geo-political strategy and options on the table for India. Thank you all for organizing and hosting it.
Some of the points that stood out for me was:
1. India should go in for TU-160 Blackjacks, even though they are expensive like hell, as a strategic deterrent option.
2. View of Pakistan as a buffer state, unilaterally with-draw Prithvis
3. Friends of India in Tajiks, Vietnamese, Israelis, Omanese
4. His rooting for repeated nuclear tests
5. Pak nuclear security being notches above India's which in itself was very good.
6. His personal view that LCA is among the best in its class (and how IAF scuttled the world-class Marut).
7. Creating at least 5-9 more divisions along the Chinese border as an effective offensive and defensive strategy
8. Do away with many Strike Corps and integrate it under one - move towards many Indp. Armoured Brigades for quick and punitive action along the Western border - if necessary
9. His thoughts on the reason why we pulled out of capturing Lahore (1965) and Muzzaffarabad (1948) - giving up a military victory for a strategic victory (?)..

Overall, his thoughts were very a refreshing perspective.

[ramana]

Hitesh, Am sure that you will get detiled transcript soon. Already we have multiple synopsis of the talk.

Someone whould go thru and list all the common points that BRF jingos(present and past) have with BK!
Another list would be whats known and whats a surprise.

Once we get all these we can think of what to make of the data.

[ShauryaT]

I disagree. live asses == dead lions, here. not all are voted on the basis of knowledge in international politics [for that matter certain candidates in masan republican party can't get gov dept names correct]. We do have a cream of professionals (if not, better have it) to deal with strategy for great power relationship.

This is not about politicians and their internal politics. This is about strategies. If we don't have it, we will perish with a rising population who are willing to forgive and forget, and perhaps follow Japan model for national security.

SaiK: Elect the right people and groups and they will ensure that they will put in the structures in place, that is the point. Think who reconstituted the NSA, the NSAB, the CCS, NCA. Who instituted a policy for earmarked capital for procurements of assets?

Professionals can aid and advise. The decision making has to be by politicians. These decision follow a narrow path, the more institutionalized the processes are. Example: NFU/MCD's institutionalization through NCA and SFC means lesser ambiguity of response options. A war game just along the order of battle is no good, if the policy objectives are not clear and gets further clouded if there is no institutionalization of these objectives through policies that can last changes of governments.

A set of politicians interested in national security issues can come in and institutionalize as many of these structures and once done, it becomes difficult for the next government to dismantle them. But, this can work in the reverse way too. That is the unwritten story of our security policies.

[shiv]

Anupji
Don't think that's gonna happenbecauseIf we give away even one square foot of land/territory in Kashmir to anyone then there will be an all out rebellion in the army and other forces.
Plus the govt should be really stoneheaded to even think along those lines as they know its an instant career killer for them.

Hey you never know with a bought out media and supporting politicians who help to create a majority in Parliament. And why will the armed forces rebel? Have they ever done so at any time after 1947?

Yes. After the anti-Sikh riots.

[shiv]

Many thanks Pratik Das. Much obliged. All in all a far less negative talk than the one he gave at IISc.

Maybe because he liked us better than the folks at IISc

I think, the setting was informal and he knew that he was amongst a well informed audience so no need to explain background et al, he could drive right in.

Also, do think, the questions were better than at the IISc

Shaurya - that is a disingenuous response that actually shows up Karnad as a man who is unable to communicate effectively with anyone who he does not like. But he is full of advice for politcians who have to do just that. His message varies with audience. No wonder he comes out looking so unconvincing.

[Guddu]

Some of this was discussed in the off-mike session.
Re: Indian support for Balochistan, he started to say something and then abruptly rephrased to say that sardar bugti complained that Indian support was inconstant. I took it to mean that the GOI increases and decreases support to balochistan depending on paki behaviour.

Re: India testing a thermonuclear device, he said that RChidambaran needs to go before that will happen. He thought that demonstration of a 1 MT device would change China's behaviour and provide adequate deterrence. Our 2o kt devices are "firecrackers" compared to the chinese maal. I got the impression that he and others are pushing for testing a nuclear device, which may happen if Congress loses power.

He seemed to be frustrated with MMS, who is considered out of touch and not well respected in baboodom.

[shiv]

2. View of Pakistan as a buffer state, unilaterally with-draw Prithvis

Well we are a bunch of frauds.

When MMS says it he is a traitor. When Karnad says it, it makes strategic sense. Why would Pakis feel less threatened if we moved Prithvis away? They were threatening us before Prithvis came in to the picture. Now we need to appear less threatening?

Why does this peacenik feel less treatened by Pakistanis 100 X 12 kt nukes and more threatend by Chinas "MegaTonne" nukes whose numbers he chose to exaggerate in his IISc talk. Why would Pakistanis be scared of our Prithvis when we have only "firecrackers". I think Karnad himself needs to be exposed to some hard questioning.

[Guddu]

And BK also let loose that Rafale will win (dont know if that was a considered opinion, or wishful thinking).

[Virupaksha]

2. View of Pakistan as a buffer state, unilaterally with-draw Prithvis

Well we are a bunch of frauds.

When MMS says it he is a traitor. When Karnad says it, it makes strategic sense. Why would Pakis feel less threatened if we moved Prithvis away? They were threatening us before Prithvis came in to the picture. Now we need to appear less threatening?

Why does this peacenik feel less treatened by Pakistanis 100 X 12 kt nukes and more threatend by Chinas "MegaTonne" nukes whose numbers he chose to exaggerate in his IISc talk. Why would Pakistanis be scared of our Prithvis when we have only "firecrackers". I think Karnad himself needs to be exposed to some hard questioning.

or perhaps because MMS or the congress have not tried to put out their strategic rationale or thought process.

BK says
"time pass with Pakistan but get ready for China."

We hear MMS saying the first part but not even the chaprasi of the lowest political or babudom speaks of second. There is no agent provocateur like LKA was in ABV time. Agreed that the second part cannot be said by the PM directly, so that is the reason of the use of agent provocateur - prime example being how Digvijay Singh is being used as attack dogs for what Sonia and Rahul cant mouth directly.

There have been no attack dogs in the foreign policy sector visible in the last 10 years.

and Yes it is a piskological issue as it provides reassurance especially when faced with "terrorism trauma" like India is subjected to ever so often.

[shiv]

You can go in as many oil high octane petrol. You can carry at most one tank t 90, will carry will go 2km per liter at most. 15 or 20 km per hour. 30 km per hour is battle speed. Turbines are gushing power. They are not internal combustion. You have to refuel from your own carry stocks.

Did Karnad say this? What was he talking about?

Tanks use diesel. The Autocar India Arjun Tank review quoted a figure of 6.7 liters of diesel per km. The T-90 is likely to be somewhat similar - maybe 5 liters per Km. Turbines exist only on M1s. And they don't use high Octane. They use aviation spirit as far as I know, which is more like Kerosene.

[Guddu]

You can go in as many oil high octane petrol. You can carry at most one tank t 90, will carry will go 2km per liter at most. 15 or 20 km per hour. 30 km per hour is battle speed. Turbines are gushing power. They are not internal combustion. You have to refuel from your own carry stocks.

Did Karnad say this? What was he talking about?

Tanks use diesel. The Autocar India Arjun Tank review quoted a figure of 6.7 liters of diesel per km. The T-90 is likely to be somewhat similar - maybe 5 liters per Km. Turbines exist only on M1s. And they don't use high Octane. They use aviation spirit as far as I know, which is more like Kerosene.

He was referring to the futility of Cold Start, namely supplying fuel to the tanks would be a big issue.

[Prasad]

Hitesh,
If you could wait till tomorow same time, I can get a transcript of those ten audio recordings.

[shiv]

He was referring to the futility of Cold Start, namely supplying fuel to the tanks would be a big issue.

Karnad wants India to pull back from Pakistan. Not surprising that he would oppose anything that seeks to hit Pakistan.

You see, he and MMS are saying the same thing. Now I don't like what either of them are saying as long as I take the attitude that we have not extracted revenge from Pakistan and have basically allowed Pakistan to get away with acts like Kaluchak and Mumbai 26/11.

If I change my attitude and think OK - Pakis are like us. Their culture is like ours. "Accidents will happen", then what Karnad, MMS and other peaceniks fpr Pakistan say start making sense. Basically Pakistan's policy of Islamist aggression has won because China is the bigger threat. And China has won because it has successfully held Pakistan up against India

I think i is contradictory to ask for a pull back of Prithvis on the one hand and demand the testing of "MegaTonne" nukes on the other and imagine that Pakistanis will feel reassured.

[Virupaksha]

I think i is contradictory to ask for a pull back of Prithvis on the one hand and demand the testing of "MegaTonne" nukes on the other and imagine that Pakistanis will feel reassured.

His strategic articulation seems to be pull back from Pakistan to pay attention to China.

Then the above statement makes sense. Prithvis have range of ~150 kms, no big Chinese (not Tibetan) cities lie in that radius or even close to that. With the above articulation in mind, that statement makes a lot of sense.

[ramana]

in 1993, PVNR signed a "Peace and Tranquility" agreement with PRC that says both sides will not deploy 150km range SSMs. It was taken to mean that India has longer range missiles in work and wouldnt be inconvenienced.

[Hitesh]

Hitesh,
If you could wait till tomorow same time, I can get a transcript of those ten audio recordings.

Many thanks!! I greatly appreciate it!!!

As for the synopsis, I respectfully disagree with BK's analysis of the Pakistan situtation. We need to respond forcefully in order to make China respect us. If we don't respond forcefully to Pakistan trangressions, what hope do we have to deter China when they think that we can be easily shoved around by a weak nation like Pakistan. They will think, "Imagine what we can do with our resources can do to India, given that Pakistan seems to shove India around"

No, in order to stand up to a big dog, you gotta show the big dog that you are capable of dealing with smaller dogs and that gives you the right to stand up to the big dog.

No, what I see of BK is reminiscent of Nehruvian thinking.

[shiv]

He was referring to the futility of Cold Start, namely supplying fuel to the tanks would be a big issue.

Guddu having heard Karnad speak I would characterise him of being full of rhetoric when he wants to get a point across.

Tanks have a range of 250-300 km on a tank of fuel and if flat land (desert) or roads are occupied an inroad of 100 km into enemy territory in one day is feasible in theory on just one tank of fuel - with fuel tankers playing catch up. Tankers would cover 100 km in less than 3 hours . So Cold Start could well work as expected, but Karnad is right about red lines. Those red lines could cause nuclear war.

Now if "red lines" are the reason why Cold Start is not going to be useful, how are our nuclear weapons going to be useful at all? Against China or Pakistan?

[abhishek_sharma]

You see, he and MMS are saying the same thing. Now I don't like what either of them are saying as long as I take the attitude that we have not extracted revenge from Pakistan and have basically allowed Pakistan to get away with acts like Kaluchak and Mumbai 26/11.

If I change my attitude and think OK - Pakis are like us. Their culture is like ours. "Accidents will happen", then what Karnad, MMS and other peaceniks fpr Pakistan say start making sense. Basically Pakistan's policy of Islamist aggression has won because China is the bigger threat. And China has won because it has successfully held Pakistan up against India

+1.
100% agreement.

[ShauryaT]

Shaurya - that is a disingenuous response that actually shows up Karnad as a man who is unable to communicate effectively with anyone who he does not like. But he is full of advice for politcians who have to do just that. His message varies with audience. No wonder he comes out looking so unconvincing.

Shiv ji: With all due respect, my response was in jest, in case you missed the smileys.

I have been reading BK for many years now and have read most of his works. To me he comes across as remarkably consistent and has been even at the IISc speech or any other event. So, maybe the fact that you found the tenor of the two talks different is a reflection of your changing views about him than anything else. I am perfectly clear on the views he represents and where I agree and differ.

His views are controversial, he himself knows that. However, inconsistent he is not.

[ShauryaT]

I think i is contradictory to ask for a pull back of Prithvis on the one hand and demand the testing of "MegaTonne" nukes on the other and imagine that Pakistanis will feel reassured.

Pull back of Prithvis is an example of a step, India can unilaterally afford to take, if the theory of co-option of TSP is accepted. I hope you have read enough about deterrence to understand how tactical nukes play a destabilizing role and what they do to the deterrence matrix. They are a net-net liability from a maintenance and deterrence perspective. My view is we should NOT use Prithvis for nuclear deterrence at all, leaving the field open and clear for its use with conventional warheads. Demarcation and clarity of nuclear assets helps and opens up space for conventional action for the more powerful between the two. It helps India's case.

[ShauryaT]

Now if "red lines" are the reason why Cold Start is not going to be useful, how are our nuclear weapons going to be useful at all? Against China or Pakistan?

CSD is a military response to the IA's fixation with the TSPA, adjusted for time and space constraints. Ask the question, what is the policy directive CSD serves? I have asked this question to folks, who should know, they do not have any answers.

[ShauryaT]

As for the synopsis, I respectfully disagree with BK's analysis of the Pakistan situtation. We need to respond forcefully in order to make China respect us. If we don't respond forcefully to Pakistan trangressions, what hope do we have to deter China when they think that we can be easily shoved around by a weak nation like Pakistan. They will think, "Imagine what we can do with our resources can do to India, given that Pakistan seems to shove India around"

No, in order to stand up to a big dog, you gotta show the big dog that you are capable of dealing with smaller dogs and that gives you the right to stand up to the big dog.

No, what I see of BK is reminiscent of Nehruvian thinking.

Hitesh: If the end goal is a security architecture for the region, how do you propose we go about the same is the question? Cannot pass on this feud with TSP forever and indebt our children too, like Nehru did.

I have reservations too about the co-option approach, however, the only other answer I have is far too complex and borders on fancy territory in light of the realities we live in.

[GopiD]

An integral and sustainable Pakistan is in Indian interests. They keep the Islamic fundamentalist exports from the Arab world at bay, a buffer so to speak.

This was the same thought from our chacha that has left us groping in the dark when the whole land mass was scooped by the chinese. Can we ask our beloved chacha where's the buffer now? or can we ask the question to his heirs?

And now comes MMS, after 4 decades with the same wine of BUFFER, just that the direction has changed to west of India. What guarantee can pak give that it will act as a buffer. As of now, pak is the source of all terror in India. When it comes to Indo-pak relationship, it will always be a zero-sum game, whatever may be the crazy plans we chart out. They represent whatever we aren't and we are whatever they aren't. How are they going to change this fundamental fact with trade and all the elder brotherly love?

what's the guarantee that pak's grows stronger economically with our trade and our help and then shows its true colors? which I bet will definitely happen.

This is in the same line of thinking as khanland's daydream some 10 year ago that if US throws Pak some f-16s and aid, then the pakis are going to act according to US' wishes. Its now in the open for all to see what will be the result of such insane wishful thinking and there is going to be no better result for us from pak if we choose to live in such fantasy world.

I think MMS' soft corner for Pak is being peddled as "us being the big brother, its our moral responsibility to make Pakistanis life easy." It has to be remembered that we have travelled this path many times before with devastating results to our national security.

My suggestion would always be KS suggestion to IG....

"This is once in a lifetime opportunity to cut Pakistan to multiple sizes and must be seized"

We will do this first and then face the consequences. There seems to be no confidence in GOI to mange the aftermath of such an incident. What if even after our best efforts pak unravels and disintegrates. What then?? will they try to unite pak again saying that it will be a buffer??

I guess if pak disintegrates, Im sure we will definitely have many pockets of sympathizers for us and that numbers would be far better than what we have now. After all, if pak can control so much in Afghanistan, why can't india do the same in Pak??

Is GOI telling us that it's incapable of such things?? or is MMS equating the congress' weak resolve and ineptitude to that of our nation's and it's armed forces/institutions??

[ShauryaT]

Basically Pakistan's policy of Islamist aggression has won because China is the bigger threat. And China has won because it has successfully held Pakistan up against India

The co-otion template takes two to tango and the Islamist template going away is TSP's end of the bargain.

[PratikDas]

And that Shaurya ji, is where BK's dream disintegrates. Gilani is in no position to barter the Wahhabi influence. He is the puppet, not the puppeteer.

Manmohan Singh said this about Gilani:

"I have always regarded Prime Minister Gilani as a man of peace. Every time I have met him in the last three years, this belief has been further strengthened," Singh said.

It is easy to see how Gilani would seem more peaceful by the year - he is growing increasingly desperate. He has been tasked with managing an economy which his armed forces are gleefully bleeding.

At the same time, Gilani was never the man with the whip anyway. How would he not seem to be a man of peace?

MMS is shopping for a Rolex at the Silk Market in Beijing.

[abhishek_sharma]

An integral and sustainable Pakistan is in Indian interests. They keep the Islamic fundamentalist exports from the Arab world at bay, a buffer so to speak.

Did he really say that? Wow...prabhu aap mahaan hain.

[Klaus]

Post your questions anyway, maybe he will read them.

If Dr Bharat Karnad is of the opinion that the Indian armed forces should become more expeditionary in nature, from Madagascar to Maldives, with the Navy leading the effort, then does he have any inputs on "Devising Military solutions to the Somali Piracy irritant" and the related question on using islands close to Omani or Yemeni coast for this purpose?

[ShauryaT]

And that Shaurya ji, is where BK's dream disintegrates. Gilani is in no position to barter the Wahhabi influence. He is the puppet, not the puppeteer.

Please do not forget the Islamist template is a Zia era+ thrust. It does not mean TSP ceases to be an Islamic nation. The idea of policy is to recognize some existing facts, what can be new facts of tomorrow based on the art of the possible. There are things which can change and things that cannot. What in your view is not changeable here?

Ever seen a small dog with a big one. By instinct, the smaller one is more aggressive, for it thinks the larger one is a threat and hence will keep on barking with threatening gestures. Now most large dogs wisely walk away. But when walking away is not an option, the large dog has to either confront and silence the smaller one or figure a way to live with the small dog and assure the smaller dog that he shall not be harmed and it is OK and he can breathe easy. Now, dogs by nature are friendly and hence it is possible for a large and small dog to live in harmony. The only question here is, is Pakistan a dog or a scorpion. A scorpion's nature is to bite, no matter what. The bet is TSP is a dog, which will keep on barking if not co-opted.

Due apologies to dogs, scorpions et al

Pratikdas Ji: There is a difference between co-option as a strategy and overtures by MMS, which are clearly meant to not change a thing on the ground. MMS is no traitor to India but he is the last person to make a difference in matters of defense and security policy and simply does not have the political capital and relevant experience, insight or judgment to do anything on the matter, IMO.

[pradeepe]

I've tried to be factual and not added my reactions. This is definitely an incomplete list - I've compiled this from my recollection and this is not a transcript. My apologies if by poor recollection I have misrepresented BK.

Thanks a bunch. Thats a nice reading summary of Dr. Karnad's talk. I am glad he shared his views.

But, I disagree with his stance on pak, which seems like a reflection of GoI's view anyway. Whats more interesting is that GoI has managed to get a lot of backing for this stance by quite a few folks like Karnad, B. Raman etc., at places that matter. Please turn the lights off on the way out. I am deeply saddened. Maybe I am a violent person hung up on revenge, out of touch with the message of of p*ss and harmony and need help. Why are the goddam lights still on.

I also disagree with his view that "multiple 20kT or 125 kT missiles don’t amount to 1 MT missile from a deterrence point of view". My opinion is that its better. But thats my opinion anyway.