Bharat Rakshak

Not much. They cocked up once, and we lost our cash from our accounts. Now, after a couple of years of sphincter tightening and gonad-squeezing, looks like 0.2% growth in 2015 and 1% in 2016. Population is only 1m. It's not really a problem, and Greek Cypriots are harder workers than the mainland Greeks. Even they regard the mainlanders as a bit on the lazy side...

On the other hand, much of the stereotypical nonsense written here about Greece is very much akin to what ignorant outsiders write about India.

The New York Stock Exchange suspended trading Wednesday morning.

No one could buy or sell stocks. In a brief announcement, the exchange said it was experiencing a technical issue. The suspension took place at 11:32 a.m.

"We're currently experiencing a technical issue that we're working to resolve as quickly as possible. We will be providing further updates as soon as we can, and are doing our utmost to produce a swift resolution, communicate thoroughly and transparently, and ensure a timely and orderly market re-open," the NYSE said.

The NYSE had stopped trading earlier Wednesday morning due to another technology glitch. The exchange says there is more information to come. U.S. markets were already down Wednesday. The Dow was down 175 points (about 1%) around the time of the halt.

The uncertainty comes as investors were already concerned about a huge sell-off in Chinese stocks and the ongoing crisis in Greece.

Perhaps that honor belongs to New Jersey - poorest performing pensions fund?}

NJ may be the richest state in the US.

how did they get there? very simple, too many benefits to state and local government employees.

I read somewhere the average k-12 NJ teacher makes over $90,000 a year.

While I think some of them may be worth it, NJ taxes are way up there and there is tax payer resistance.

Thus NJ doesn't pay its acturarial determined portion of of matching retirement contributions.

Neither does Illinois NOR THE GREAT STATE OF TEXAS! and trust me the average teacher in Texas does NOT make over $90,000 /yr.

So Greece is not alone in some of these matters. Puerto Rico is in dire trouble also.

UlanBatori wrote:What is the fallout in Cyprus from the Greek tamasha?

Cypriot banks hold 10 B $ of Greek debt.

Others are as follows;

Turkey $32 billion
Romania $15 billion
Bulgaria $10 billion
UK $10 billion
Serbia $5 billion
The Marshall Islands $4 billion
Liberia $ 3 billion (as if ebola was not enough)
Germany $2 billion
USA $2 billion

NRao wrote:Terrible article.

So, the idea is/should be that a nation should spend more than they earn, 10 years later ask for help, get worse and then make a nuisance of itself?

Greeks should be ashamed of themselves (granted there are plenty of other nations that behave similarly).

There are two things wrong that I see here:

1) Greeks need to realize that they are asking people to take a cut (writing off a debt), because
2) Of their bad spending habits

I think they should be helped, but with longer term loans. But hell, the Greeks better pay them back - may be without interest. But no free money from here. (I think the Italians, Spaniards and Portuguese are in a similar boat).

Why is it terrible ? Greece is like a Euro TSP. They live beyond their means on outside baksheesh. All those who lent them money were neither blind nor stupid. They gave the money wilfully, knowing that they'd make money on the transactions, and make money on the higher coupons. But hey, the downside is, that higher coupon means higher risk of defaulting, which they just did.

When it comes to TSP, we blame both the debtor and creditor in equal measure. Why, in the case of Greece, do we focus blame on the debtor ? Yes, they are profligate, entitled, yada yada. This is not a shocking revelation that was learned yesterday. They have always been like that. And yet, they have been fattened with cheap money for 2 decades.

There's a lot of talk about obligations, morality etc. When X gives a loan to Y, then Y does not promise to pay it back. They promise to accept the consequences of not doing so, if they choose not to. They can keep paying as long as they think that's the better thing to do. They can and should stop paying when they think the cost of defaulting is lower than that of continuing payments.

The central point of the article is that Greece feels the short term painful cost of defaulting is ultimately lower than the cost of austerity to pay down the debt. Historically, an effort to impose the latter has not been successful. Example: Treaty of Versailles.

niran wrote:

NRao wrote:<snip>(I think the Italians, Spaniards and Portuguese are in a similar boat).

eyetaylee currently have 28% (and climbing) of the employable population on govt. doles for the unemployed. Greece had around 27% a year ago i.e. in a year and a half eyetaylee gonna go belly up next.

Italy was making noises that the rich European countries should shoulder some of the burden in handling the many illegal immigrants that Italy routinely faces. Italy being just the stepping stone for many of these immigrants.

Greece comes out looking like a country addicted to living beyond their means using debt. And the EU is guilty of feeding their addiction for long because they were so desperate to convince everyone that the Eurozone is the best thing that's happened to every member and trying to prove the critics who said it was a flawed model, wrong.

If Greece hadn't been in the Eurozone and had indulged in such profligate spending, they would have been forced to change their ways long before reaching this point. Lenders would have stopped lending to them long before their debt reached $300b and the Drachma would have had to been devalued considerably. Eventually, they would have crawled their way out much like we did after the 1991 crisis. But they never faced any consequences for borrowing heavily to finance their unsustainably profligate dole programs, because the Euros kept flowing. So why would they stop?

Here's what'll happen if Greece gets a better deal:
Poll: Should Ireland push for debt relief if Greece gets a better deal?


No prizes for guessing how the other PIGS members will vote if asked the same question.

Folks a personal question....sorry to be asking it here. My family might travel to Greece in Oct-Nov. Safe? Unsafe? You can answer in the nukkad thread. Thanks.

JE Menon wrote:That our own politicians are much much savvier and cannier players in the game of power management than these “polished” fellows inhabiting the higher echelons of the European political structures.

From a previous page. Just wanted to put my 2 drachmas on this crises. I agree with above.

There is a problem with Greece, no doubt.

But there is a problem with the Euro too.

How can multiple nation, behaving in their own individual ways have a common currency? How do you maintain fiscal responsibility across a disparate political systems?

So, Greece spends as she pleases, but cannot print her money. Which is what she will do if she opts for her own currency - the drakma (sp?).

Watch the next funny episode: Obama calls Merkel and requests her to go easy because the US fears that Greece may fall into the Russian orbit. Eh?

SwamyG wrote:Folks a personal question....sorry to be asking it here. My family might travel to Greece on Oct-Nov. Safe? Unsafe? You can answer in the nukkad thread. Thanks.

Why not safe? If you r worried about a social fall out due to the economic condition, then it would have happened long back. I'd be more worried being a traveler in Paris than in most Greek cities. Haven't seen Greece being put on alert list for any UK/US/Aus citizens yet. If the visit is for tourism purpose I'd expect cheaper services on the contrary

SwamyG perfectly safe

panduranghari wrote:

vera_k wrote: I suspect there's more. In that the EU is bankrupt...but yet to show it. If that is correct, Greece does not lose as much is being made out by leaving the Euro. Sure, the new currency will be lower compared to the Euro today, but the Euro itself would be heading lower over the next few years as more troubles become apparent.

What proof you have for making such misleading assertions?

I found some (behind WSJ paywall - use Google or subscription to access) - Twilight of the Euro Welfare state

Let us not kid ourselves, the way many Europeans are kidding themselves, that Greece is entirely unique. Portugal, Italy and Spain—“core” European welfare states—already have made the same transition to dependence on external “other people’s money” to uphold their welfare systems.

Their version of other people’s money is Mario Draghi’s implicit promise to tax all Europeans with future inflation (a promise that remains implicit at this point) to keep their welfare states afloat. If not for the European Central Bank’s promise, these governments likely would already be in the same position as Greece—unable to finance their deficits.

Now where is inflation coming from?

The EU does not produce anything any more that is really unique in quality, low price or innovation. So how are they going to come up? Without colonies they don't have cheap raw materials. Their labor costs are not low.

I don't see any short-term out or long-term from the present situation unless China and Japan and Taiwan and Korea and US are put out of the competition. The panic was evident in the tone of EU ambassadors several years back - when they were shrilly claiming that EU emphasized Product Quality. Unfortunately the evidence says that is not so. Aging population does not help a lot either.

The Germans and British are innovative and very tough people who don't give up easily, so surely they will come up with something brilliant. The others are just going to become tourist economies?? Or go to war with each other?

This is the best explanation of the "Greek national debt" I know of. It was originally written in Spanish. This is an English translation by Google, so the quality isn't great. Nonetheless, it's very much worth reading.

http://blogs.publico.es/vicenc-navarro/ ... en-grecia/

http://translate.google.com/translate?h ... rev=search

"IV. THE OTHER GREAT CAUSE, silent and ignored, OF HIGH PUBLIC DEBT: THE SYSTEM OF GOVERNANCE OF THE EURO
(Q) Why the public debt has grown so much?
(R.) In the first part of the interview have already indicated one of the major causes of the growth of public debt: the shortage of revenue to the State. But another important reason is the fact that States in the euro area are not protected against speculation in financial markets. And this happens as a result of the way the euro, which aimed to favor the predominantly German financial interests that exert enormous influence on decision-making institutions and governance of the Eurozone was designed. It is not by chance that the European Central Bank (ECB) is located next to the Bundesbank, the German central bank, which operates in practice as the great lobby the German financial capital itself.
(P.) And what are the consequences of this system of government of the euro?
(R.) that the ECB's policies systematically favor private banks at the expense of the states.
(Q) What does this mean?
(R.) There is full recognition in the media, including economic data, the ECB is not a central bank, such as the US central bank, called Federal Reserve or the Bank of England. What a central bank is printing money and thereby buy government debt to force its state interests of this debt down. But the ECB has been doing this. What has been doing has been printing money, money that it lent itself to a rock-bottom interest to private banks, which bought with this money the public debt of the States, which had to pay huge interests (of even 13% in the case of Greece), to get money because they could not get the ECB. Hence they had no protection against speculation banks. Thus, private banks continue raising money and getting some very low interest. And with this money bought government bonds that assured them a high interest. It was the "bargain" of the century. Hence the enormous growth of public debt, especially in the PIGS countries emerged. This meant a huge, and I repeat, enormous benefits of private banking and its enormous growth. The case of the Spanish banking is a clear example of this. Spain has one of the largest banking sectors in the world's richest countries. Proportion is three times the size of the banking sector in the US. This sector is too large in Spain. Absorbs a huge amount of resources and much of its expansion is due to speculative activity.
(P.) And to pay this debt to banks have been making these cuts in public spending.
(R.) That's right. ECB President, Mr. Draghi said it clearly. Europe must end with the Social Europe. He has said so clear, bluntly. And the Spanish banking from Santander to La Caixa, have been following this slogan. Demanding "fiscal discipline", one of the most used expressions in his speech. And also add the need for "structural reforms", which means, do labor market reforms aimed at lowering wages. This is what they define as need "to be disciplined and reassure financial markets.""

This article has many links for further investigation.
http://xevolutie.blogspot.com/2011/07/151-greece.html

In Greece, very recently built railway tracks , stations and brand new trains have been taken out of bussiness. The reason: there were not enough clients. In the documentary ( min. 9) there were 10 passengers who were served by 1 train driver and 4 inspectors.  The new train-lines lost 3 million € a day. Total loss untill now: 10 billion €. (8 min. )
Dutch tv program: Knevel en vd Brink.
M. Stellinga (Dutch Economist): "The money that will be given to Greece is mainly important for the banks who lent money to Greece. It goes directly to these banks."  (min 2 to 11.)

Betting the Greek PM will not propose anything of substance.

JE Menon wrote:>>I wonder how the US will act now that the vote is out. One thing is for certain - the EU and US simply cannot afford

What is there to suggest the US is unhappy about the Greek vote? No reason to think it is. An uncertain and divided EU is not against the US interest.

True. But with Ruskies rising up and can potentially ensnare Greece, it doesn't seem all that certain that the US will be too happy. Besides, forget Russia. China too.

And lest we forget, they had a naval exercise up there in the Mediterranean a few wks / months back - join exercise with China. Ouch. Things are perhaps coming to a head in the troubled waters of the Mediterranean might likely be the US view. All it takes is one knee jerk reaction from Greece for Ruskie - Sino reln to come as a knight to safeguard Greece from toppling into the murky coastal waters.

One thing is for sure, IMO - none of the armies will be particularly pleased about a nice naval base of China in Greece. Regardless of whether its called a commercial complex (with big wide berths to handle large ships) / not.

There is really nothing for Greece left to "propose". It's over they have no money. It's for the EU to say default and leave the Euro, or for the Greeks to accept (or reject) an EU proposal for debt forgiveness and aggressive rescheduling, or for the forcible takeover of Greek assets. The best outcome I can see is for a soft exit from euro plus repayment plan.

Where's the junkie going to get the heroin from?

Germany and other EU exporters must realize this is part of the price of a captive market on a credit fix.

JEM: what, if any, is the sense of kinship between Greece and Russia on the basis of the existence of the Greek and Russian Orthodox churches ?

Thanks folks. The visit is not for tourism, but for a chess tournament. Of course my dollars in play. I was curious about the social fallout and reaction to immigrants. Some of those countries are having tough time; and moi being brown having some anxiety

very strong Suraj. Will write in a bit more detail later.

Greece will, if things get out of hand even further, look to Russia and the U.S. first. It has extremely deep links to both countries, church and diaspora respectively. Former CIA Director George Tenet has Greek roots, for instance. Plus the Greek link to the rest of Europe is also underestimated. Subtly a lot will come into play. Queen Elizabeth's husband, let's not forget, is Prince Phillip of Greece!!!

Greek entrepreneurs and academics are disproportionately successful in most advanced economies. I am extremely surprised that they haven't been able to use all that fire-power and drive to diversify their own economy beyond tourism, shipping and olives.

JE Menon wrote:very strong Suraj. Will write in a bit more detail later.

Greece will, if things get out of hand even further, look to Russia and the U.S. first. It has extremely deep links to both countries, church and diaspora respectively. Former CIA Director George Tenet has Greek roots, for instance. Plus the Greek link to the rest of Europe is also underestimated. Subtly a lot will come into play. Queen Elizabeth's husband, let's not forget, is Prince Phillip of Greece!!!

Thanks in advance!

SwamyG wrote:Thanks folks. The visit is not for tourism, but for a chess tournament. Of course my dollars in play. I was curious about the social fallout and reaction to immigrants. Some of those countries are having tough time; and moi being brown having some anxiety

Keep just enough cash (not too much as to attract elements but don't run out of cash).
Ensure credit cards you carry operate internationally. Use it instead of cash where you can. You can call cust service and make them aware of your plans.

Good luck to your kid(s) for chess tournament.

SwamyG where are you going? If it's to Athens, any demonstrations etc will be limited to syntagma square area or just to the next metro stop radius max. If to the islands, just chill. The wines are awesome.

Behind a paywall, but can be accessed by typing in the article title into google:
WSJ: U.S., IMF Step Up Calls for Europe to Restructure Greece’s Debt
Treasury Secretary Jacob Lew warns against accidental exit of Greece from eurozone
I'm still skeptical on Grexit. It's very possible that the US will armtwist the ECB into eating its losses and accept restructuring and kick the can further down the road.

^^agree on the arm twisting part 100%

Arjun, I know intimately another country just like the one you describe

With population just 11m, they don't have critical mass for much. Half of Mumbai?

Arjun wrote:Greek entrepreneurs and academics are disproportionately successful in most advanced economies. I am extremely surprised that they haven't been able to use all that fire-power and drive to diversify their own economy beyond tourism, shipping and olives.

where did get this data sir? apart from Onasis(now dead and kennedyfied) and one Yoghurt baron(import milk from Oz land and i do not see Greeks disproportionally successful apart from mom and pop restaurant and groceries.

Saying that Greece can solicit US's help if it breaks out of Euro/EU etc is totally missing the plot, IMO. US has actively aided Greece in cooking books, making euro case, motivating europeans to accept Greece's membership, providing all help in an earlier bail out (yes Greece was bailed out earlier some 5 years ago). US banks benefited hugely because of deals involving Greece' bailouts. It has actively facilitated to screw things up on both sides.

Greece has been US' trojan horse in the Euro house.

The main plot is and remains USD/US economy vs Euro/european economy vs emerging alternative from Eurasia/Eurasian economy (involving CAR+Russia+China+India).

JE Menon wrote:Arjun, I know intimately another country just like the one you describe

With population just 11m, they don't have critical mass for much. Half of Mumbai?

Successful diaspora and floundering home economy? No, even India is very much on the growth path.

I don't buy the critical mass bit. Israel has a population of 8 Mil.

One possible culprit is the rule by the Turks & Ottomans lasting several centuries.

niran wrote:

Arjun wrote:Greek entrepreneurs and academics are disproportionately successful in most advanced economies. I am extremely surprised that they haven't been able to use all that fire-power and drive to diversify their own economy beyond tourism, shipping and olives.

where did get this data sir? apart from Onasis(now dead and kennedyfied) and one Yoghurt baron(import milk from Oz land and i do not see Greeks disproportionally successful apart from mom and pop restaurant and groceries.

Tom and Alec Gores
Michael Jaharis
Peter Peterson
George Argyros
Jim Davis
Alexander Spanos

Entire EU fellows can not live as live today for long. The weak like Greek are first to fall and fall others will. In long term most of the EU nations will have to start living within their means, which in most of the cases will have to be done cutting free soaps, working longer, for less etc which are going to be resented by people which will lead to anti non gora immigrant feelings and raise of ultra nationalist forces. In end I see only Germany and UK remaining. UK will survive because Anglo-Saxons of the world will help her and she is not in this Euro mess and Germany because it is strongest of economies.

Niran,

Start with this sample
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Greek_American

There are nearly half a million Greeks in the UK, including the founder of Easyjet.

You may also wish to check out where the word Britannia, as in Britain and in Brtannia rules the waves comes from. Fun fact. The Greeks of course still call them by the name they gave the Brits. Oi vrittanoi (pronounced Britanni)

They will be around. And they have more resources than may seem evident at first.

JE Menon wrote:SwamyG where are you going? If it's to Athens, any demonstrations etc will be limited to syntagma square area or just to the next metro stop radius max. If to the islands, just chill. The wines are awesome.

Porto Carras, Halkidikki. Mostly will arrive at Thessaloniki. Not sure yet.

Enjoy it. The area is gorgeous. Chill. Turkey is within spitting distance.

UK can always call on help from resource rich saxon landgrabs like canada and australia...hence significant street backing even if massa is lukewarm with the bread n butter . britons have been emigrating to canada and australia consistently for better job opps in trades, mining, shops, farming etc. the reverse direction canadians and aussies come to UK for high tech and finance jobs.

they look after each others interests and form the inner circle of intel sharing with massa and NZ.

plus the city of london is a smoothly oiled repository of half the worlds ill-gotten wealth and has deep ties to korrupt elites all around the world. most of these elites have large homes in london both for vacation and in worst case as exile residences(russian oligarchs, Lamo...)....even small time fugitives like nadeem and the war room leak suspect make a beeline for london.

greece does have its ancient sea faring and entrepreneurial traditions but is resource poor, small population and not much of high value goods the world needs. it might be able to leverage its strategic location like TSP does and the US naval base in Piraeus as a "too big to fail" play and remain afloat as a hedge against Turkey going south(it will) and gate guardian of the adriatic (big bad slavics & serbians) and black sea (big bad bear)......."value" is always in the eye of the beholder and massa can always print dollars and arrange the system (couple of tight slaps to EU) to help greece.

>>Successful diaspora and floundering home economy? No, even India is very much on the growth path.

No, this part exactly: "Greek entrepreneurs and academics are disproportionately successful in most advanced economies. I am extremely surprised that they haven't been able to use all that fire-power and drive to diversify their own economy beyond"... The extent to which the Indian diaspora helped post-1991 is debated ad nauseum still. I think it was limited but not insubstantial, though as a part of the diaspora I like to think otherwise. But when state management was bad, the diaspora did nothing; just like the Greek diaspora have been doing for the most part.

>>I don't buy the critical mass bit. Israel has a population of 8 Mil.

Yes. But name another country. My point is not that Greece is exceptional or different from others. It is that it isn't. It's just an ordinary country with its own quirks and with a strong sense of history that has gone a little to their heads.

>>One possible culprit is the rule by the Turks & Ottomans lasting several centuries.

True, that hasn't helped and has in fact contributed to the "strong sense of history that has gone a little to their heads" part. Ottoman rule was harsh, 400 years odd IIRC, and they had to do a lot to save their heritage. So they cling to it. In fact, my brother-in-law, a hardline nationalist Cretan Greek who will put any of us Hindutva chaps to shame , carries the surname "Fermanis" - which of course means one of his ancestors was the person responsible for carrying the "firman" of the local equivalent of the Mughal satrap.