OBOR, Chinese Strategy and Implications

[chola]

We need to convert those better relationships into concrete market access, tourism sources, raw material providers, etc. Unless we do, having "better" relations amounts to a whole hill of nothing.

Unfortunately unlike the chinis who live in a neighbourhood surrounded by high tech, capital rich countries like Japan, SoKo, Taiwan, HK and resource rich areas like Siberia & Central Asia, we live by contrast in the proverbial Bronx.

Would you rather be contained by highly advanced and powerful nations around your periphery like Japan, SoKo, Taiwan, etc. or by weak nations like Bangladesh, Sri Lanka, Nepal?

Obviously, the PRC would have prefered the weaker nations to bully. Yet, the chinis were pragmatic enough to make it work to their advantage by engaging with nations hostile to it. In fact, it is most heavily engaged in trade, tourism, academic-, cultural-exchanges, etc. with its mist implacable foes in the US, Japan and Taiwan.

Lessons to be learned here?

We need war. We can hope for one breaking out between Cheen on their heavily fortified frontdoor with the US and Japan or over Taiwan. Or we can start one by kicking the fvck down their barely defended backdoor.

Going "rambo" on them would be suicide. They posses quite a lot of land and air power the sheer quantity of which would be overwhelming to India. For now, just play it cool. They have as much to worry about US plans in Asia and India's role in it as we do with their hegemonic ambitions.

No. They do not have overwhelming numbers that can be used against India. In fact, as I repeatedly said, WE own overwhelming advantages in men and material in any conceivable military scenario with Cheen. This is dictated by the iron laws of geography, even if you ignore geopolitics.

One example: even if the PRC could dedicate all their 4th gen J-11s and J-10s to the Indian border without weakening their position on all important Taiwan, SCS and ECS (and those regions are life and death to the CCP), there is simply no place in Tibet to place those hundreds of planes. And anything flying from the Tibetan plateau would be severely limited in load, not to mention the state of human resources used to sea-level in that rarefied air.

A nice short war would be fun and profitably against a merchant race smart enough to count the numbers. Chinis are not pakis, they are rational and conveniently soft militarily. Even more so today with all those single child little emperors in the army. Every one toasted in war means entire family lines dying out.

[Kashi]

You think telepathy sitting in Delhi will work better?

Not really, I was only wondering what information that is not available in open source would be discussed in an open forum that would necessitate us sending an official so as to be "privy to the OBOR conversations".

Care to give a few examples?

[yensoy]

You think telepathy sitting in Delhi will work better?

Not really, I was only wondering what information that is not available in open source would be discussed in an open forum that would necessitate us sending an official so as to be "privy to the OBOR conversations".

Care to give a few examples?

There is always stuff going on. Some of it is reported, other is based on hallway and informal conversations. Not with the Chinese but with all the other parties. A lot happens this way that won't be reported in the minutes. One can pick up a lot of insight from the conference dynamics, identify weak links and other skeptical parties, reach out to them and make a plan for how to engage further. Also, someone needs to speak up that CPEC violates our sovereignty.

China is not Pakistan. We cannot isolate China, just as China cannot isolate India. We have a lot of commercial interests in China (despite it not being a fair playing field as everyone in the world knows). Nobody has boycotted China - not Trump's US, nor any of the claimants to the South China seas, not even Japan, Korea or Taiwan. We can maintain our principled skepticism and raise sovereignty issues if we attend, at a level commensurate with our engagement, i.e. at a very low level.

[chetak]

India not attending at all will make them lose face.

Other countries will also take note.

No need to keep on licking the han boots like we have been doing for a really long time now.

We need to show some spine.

Sending a junior officer will have the same effect, yet allow for less tension and uneasy conversations/media scrutiny/jingoism, at the same time making us privy to the OBOR conversations.

When you look at the world in a black and white "licking boots/showing spine" metaphor, you have lost the battle. When something can be done with finesse no point contaminating the atmosphere.

the atmosphere is already toxic and we did not make it that way.

There is a time for the rapier and a time for the broadsword. This is not the rapier time.

[yensoy]

There is a time for the rapier and a time for the broadsword. This is not the rapier time.

OBOR isn't dying anytime soon. Xi will throw a trillion dollars at it if that is what it takes. We don't need to jump with enthusiasm, but we can be there to savour the souring of mood. Anyway this is a meaningless discussion - I think GoI will indeed attend this with a downgraded (but not in my opinion junior enough) representation.

[chetak]

There is a time for the rapier and a time for the broadsword. This is not the rapier time.

OBOR isn't dying anytime soon. Xi will throw a trillion dollars at it if that is what it takes. We don't need to jump with enthusiasm, but we can be there to savour the souring of mood. Anyway this is a meaningless discussion - I think GoI will indeed attend this with a downgraded (but not in my opinion junior enough) representation.

This will be given a complete miss, as it should.

[Peregrine]

For one Chinese city, new 'Silk Road' leaves old problems unsolved

HUNCHUN, CHINA: In August, 2014, planners in the northeastern Chinese city of Hunchun argued in state media that it should be included in the "One Belt, One Road" project, Beijing's vision laid out the previous year of a new Silk Road across Asia to Europe.

In 2015, the official Xinhua news agency ran stories about how Hunchun was accelerating its "OBOR" plans, and early in 2016, China's cabinet released a list of Chinese cities included in "OBOR": Hunchun was on the map.

The fact that the list came about slowly, and that some cities felt moved to lobby to be included, underlines how the pet project of Chinese President Xi Jinping is as amorphous as it is ambitious.

The challenge of defining exactly what OBOR means will come to the fore later this month, when heads of state and senior officials from around the world gather in Beijing for the first major summit dedicated to the project.

In theory, incentives for cities, companies and countries to be involved are strong: hundreds of billions of dollars are expected to be spent on roads, railways, pipelines, ports and industrial zones stretching from Sri Lanka to Djibouti.

But as Hunchun shows, the reality of OBOR can be complicated and requires buy-in from other countries.

The city's position at the apex of Russia, North Korea and China is a blessing and a curse. While Russia is gradually opening up to more trade, North Korea has stalled.

Tantalisingly close to the sea but without a sea port after Russia's annexation in 1860, local businesses said they wanted to ship more goods via Rason, a nearby North Korean port earmarked as an export hub to China, Japan, South Korea and beyond.

That would open a shipping route to southern China, but with sanctions in place against Pyongyang, global tensions rising over its arms program and Rason developing slowly, expectations of progress are low.

"We currently transport goods by rail to southern China. We'd like to ship from Rason, but at present that's not happening," said Wang Hai, general manager of Guanghai Import and Export Trading Company in Hunchun, a small firm with 12 staff, both Chinese and Russian.

"Hunchun is a hub for northeast Asia, so in theory it should play a big role in 'One Belt, One Road', but for now it hasn't been able to get its act together."

RUSSIA MORE PROMISING?

North Korea remains largely shut to the outside world, and China, while remaining its main economic and diplomatic backer, has signed up for tough U.N. sanctions against it.

But China said on Tuesday that North Korea would be sending a delegation to the upcoming OBOR summit.

Russian President Vladimir Putin will also attend, reflecting his country's importance in China's OBOR strategy; in Hunchun, some enterprises are already seeing benefits from mutual trade.

Xingyang Seafood, for example, imports 90 percent of its seafood from Russia and 10 percent from North Korea, said chairman Zhao Yang.

"The main advantage of being in Hunchun is that we are close to Russia," Yang told Reuters. The company is headquartered in northern China's Shandong province, but in 2015 it opened a branch in Hunchun to exploit its proximity to Russia.

"How does North Korea help us? It doesn't help us at all, they have hardly any seafood left there."

Hunchun's spokesman Hao Qiang declined to comment about the city's relationship with North Korea, because of the "current political situation", and would not say how many North Koreans were working in the city.

"But we can talk about Hunchun's trade with Russia, the city's clean air and successful tree-planting initiatives."

In addition to oil and gas export opportunities between Russia and China, Putin has spoken of roads and bridges being built to strengthen links.

Russia has struggled, however, to lure enough people to sparsely populated regions bordering China's northeast, and there are concerns among Russians of creeping colonization if too much land is leased to the Chinese.

"They (Chinese) will live there, their relatives will come, they will deepen their roots there, they will take Russian women as wives," firebrand opposition politician Vladimir Zhirinovsky said in 2015, when proposals to lease Russian land to Chinese farmers were put forward.

"We will only have problems. I see no advantages."

For Hunchun, OBOR is the latest in a series of development programmes aimed at revitalising Jilin province and China's northeast.

In the 1990s, the United Nations backed the Tumen River Area Development Project, which became the Greater Tumen Initiative linking China, Mongolia, South Korea and Russia.

The benefits of large-scale state investment are clear. From 25th place among smaller cities in Jilin in terms of economic growth, Hunchun now stands third. Foreign trade has doubled since 2011, according to city statistics.
Cheers

[SSridhar]

China's big road is going to be awfully bumpy - Michael Schumann, Bloomberg

As they’ve guided China’s remarkable economic ascent over the last four decades, the country’s leaders have largely been content to focus on raising incomes and building factories. They’ve steered clear of messy international entanglements that could undermine economic progress, and with it the public support that keeps them in power.

Over the past decade, of course, a richer, more confident China has attempted to assert greater global influence. President Xi Jinping has boldly presented himself as a statesman prepared to champion big global causes, from fighting climate change to promoting free trade.

The most visible symbol of Xi’s ambitions is what’s now known as the “Belt and Road” initiative. The term is something of a catchall, encompassing a set of land and sea trade routes facilitated by new highways, railways, ports, power grids and other infrastructure to better connect China to Europe, Africa, the Middle East and South and Southeast Asia. A two-day summit starting this weekend is meant to highlight the grandeur of the scheme, with an impressive guest list of heads of state and other international dignitaries from numerous countries.

It’s far too soon to pop the champagne, however. While its economic rationale remains at best uncertain, the Belt and Road program will embroil China in the tangled affairs of other countries to a degree unparalleled in its modern history. That’s an area where China’s strengths -- its financial clout, skill at building infrastructure and top-down management style -- aren’t likely to be much help.

As with most things involving China, the numbers surrounding Xi’s initiative are staggering. Lan Shen, an economist at Standard Chartered, recently figured that China has so far inked $926 billion worth of projects tied to the scheme. Not all will materialize, of course, nor is it even clear exactly which projects fall under the rubric.

In theory, whatever roads, rails and ports do end up getting built could boost the potential for growth in many underdeveloped regions. But there’s good reason why countries along the planned routes need so much infrastructure in the first place: No one has been willing to build it. Many of the countries involved are unstable and corrupt, which means operating in them is especially treacherous. Gavekal Dragonomics analyst Tom Miller has said Chinese officials privately expect to lose 30 percent of their investments in Central Asia, and up to 80 percent in Pakistan.

Alexander Cooley, director of the Harriman Institute at Columbia University, has taken a close look at China’s earlier experiences in Central Asia. He notes that Chinese mining and construction projects in Pakistan have been attacked by rebels and dragged into separatist struggles against the government, while in Tajikistan, local political elites profited off a Chinese-backed highway by turning it into a toll road -- with the cash streaming into their pockets. Cooley’s conclusion: The Belt and Road initiative “risks stirring domestic political competition, fueling networks of graft and rent-seeking, and not fulfilling its transformative potential.”

Though sold as a “win-win” program for all involved, the scheme is ultimately meant to further Chinese economic interests by generating new business for Chinese companies, especially in sectors like steel and construction that suffer from excess capacity, and by promoting Chinese finance on an international stage. Participating governments could find themselves loaded down by debt from Chinese banks – all to pay Chinese companies and import Chinese workers to build infrastructure designed to expand Chinese exports. That could spark local resistance and complaints that China is unfairly hoarding the benefits of the projects it sponsors, as has happened already in Africa and Sri Lanka.

And while new pipelines and power plants may win China friends, especially among the poorer nations along its periphery, the fact that Belt and Road is a Chinese state initiative will create new frictions. India, for instance, has so far given the program the cold shoulder, despite Chinese pleas. Indian officials have objected to a key segment of the plan that runs through Kashmir territory held by Pakistan but claimed by India. Naturally, they’re also wary that the roads and rails built by China could facilitate the projection of Chinese military power and political influence well beyond its borders.

Chinese leaders aren’t blind to these hurdles. They’ve been at pains recently to emphasize the mutual benefits the scheme could produce, and have encouraged participation by the US, multilateral lending institutions and large institutional investors who could lend a degree of professionalism to the deals being struck.

Ultimately, though, the success of the program will depend on how transparent and inclusive China can bring itself to be. Its leaders will have to be willing to share not just the costs, but the benefits of these projects. They’ll have to bring locals into the decision-making process, be more attuned to their concerns and strive to meet high environmental and legal standards.

For a government accustomed to ordering around companies and banks, the diplomatic nuance and cooperative spirit necessary to make the Belt and Road work presents a steep challenge. And with so much of Xi Jinping’s international prestige now wrapped up in the program, China could feel compelled to press ahead, no matter what disputes and financial losses ensue. Xi may be better off proceeding with more caution and less bombast. A little humility now could save Chinese leaders headaches later.

[yensoy]

Russia has struggled, however, to lure enough people to sparsely populated regions bordering China's northeast, and there are concerns among Russians of creeping colonization if too much land is leased to the Chinese.

"They (Chinese) will live there, their relatives will come, they will deepen their roots there, they will take Russian women as wives," firebrand opposition politician Vladimir Zhirinovsky said in 2015, when proposals to lease Russian land to Chinese farmers were put forward.

"We will only have problems. I see no advantages."

The fact that the list came about slowly, and that some cities felt moved to lobby to be included, underlines how the pet project of Chinese President Xi Jinping is as amorphous amourous as it is ambitious.

There, fixed it for you.

[chetak]

ONE ROAD, MANY TROUBLES

Wednesday, 10 May 2017

One road, many troubles

On OBOR, CPEC, China will face challenges

There is a great deal of disapproval in the ‘liberal' media over India's refusal to participate in the China-driven One Belt One Road (OBOR) project, with commentators warning that India would be the eventual loser in economic terms. But all things cannot always be reduced to money and material; there is such a thing as geo-strategic position.

In this case, one of the components of the OBOR is the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) which passes through regions held by Pakistan that India has always disputed. It is facile for China to say that the project is not an endorsement of Pakistan's claims over the disputed region or a rejection of New Delhi's stated position, and that the matter is strictly in the economic domain. By taking part in the OBOR, India would end up diluting its stand on Pakistan-occupied Kashmir. In fact, China should be asking itself as to why it is going about with the ambitious scheme by neglecting New Delhi's sensitivities. Besides, parts of the region through which the CPEC will pass in Pakistan are restive — the Baloch area, for instance, is up in arms. There is no point in Islamabad blaming India for the unrest there because everyone knows the real cause — which is, that the Baloch people are disgusted with the atrocities Pakistan Army has been committing on them and suppressing their desires. Sooner or later, Beijing will understand the mess that it has got itself into. Pakistan will, without doubt, increase its brutal suppression to ensure that its friend China's project continues unhampered, but the more Islamabad does that the more troubles will mount. In fact, even some Chinese commentators have begun to question the sagacity of pushing ahead in the midst of these uncertainties.

In Pakistan, some fears have been expressed on whether the nation can afford the huge investments as part of its contribution. There is a very real fear that the more Islamabad falls into a debt trap the more it will have to lean on China to rescue it. And such acts chivalry come at a price.

Besides, China cannot avoid the conflicts that are arising in the region due to Pakistan's tendency to push terrorism in the region, including in Afghanistan. A section of the $50 billion CPEC passes through Afghan territory, and Kabul and Islamabad are not on the best of terms. This equation is unlikely to change for the better in the coming months as the CPEC progresses, because Pakistan will not let go of using terrorism as a state policy.

The recent conflict in which a few Afghan troops were killed by their Pakistani counterparts, has added to the complicity. Additionally, parts of Balochistan are alongside the borders of Iran — and Iran has recently hinted at striking into Pakistan to flush out terrorists that have been targeting it. The Gwadar port, in which China has heavily invested, is close to Iran. All in all, troublesome days are ahead for China and its friend over the OBOR/CPEC

[amit]

China's big road is going to be awfully bumpy - Michael Schumann, Bloomberg
Chinese officials privately expect to lose...and up to 80 percent in Pakistan.

This is the second time I'm coming across the 80 percent number. The other was in an article in WSJ. Keep this number in mind, one can understand why China is desperate to get India on board. With access to the Indian market they reduce this 80 per cent number but at the same time grab resourced in Pakistan because they wouldn't be able to pay back anything. May be Gilgit and Baltistan and Gwadar port.

Chini pasand assets in India did start to raise the crescendo, remember Parvin Swami's article? I'm guessing some nuts were squeezed quietly by GoI which is why everyone has fallen silent. Just imagine what a cakewalk it would have been if Pappu had been in charge!

[Philip]

Manoj Joshi writing in Outlook has this very pertinent piece about the relentless Chinese pursuance of CNP (Comprehensive National Power) and the huge strides they've made in achieving their goal.

http://www.outlookindia.com/magazine/st ... wer/298839
15 MAY 2017INTERNATIONALOPINION
Comprehensive National PowerIndia needs a strategic effort to understand that it is no longer competing with China, but seeking to cope with an increasing asymmetry of power

China's massive expansion into cyber-warfare,dozens of sats supporting its cyberwar efforts,etc., and networking of its national goals/objectives ,coalescing all elements of national power into one machine,is well spelt out. He advocates India doing the same,where we have to put our united efforts and back to the wheel so as to stymie China in the future.

This particular issue is must-buy as it has sev. other pieces reg. the new intl order and attempt by China with its OBOR gambit,etc. to challenge the US for global supremacy. Where does this all leave India?

[SSridhar]

With access to the Indian market they reduce this 80 per cent number but at the same time grab resourced in Pakistan because they wouldn't be able to pay back anything. May be Gilgit and Baltistan and Gwadar port.

Let us look at the future, a decade from now.

If Pakistan behaves exactly like how its DNA ordains it to behave and if consistent past history is any indication - that is doublespeaking, perfidious, duplicitous, ungrateful & charlatanish - then China would have met its match and might end up suffering like the US. The Pakistani ISI and its stooge, the Taliban (or whatever it would be called at that time) would crow once again that they have defeated a third superpower too.

But, Chinese hopes are different. They are working on a very large and ambitious canvass. They are confident that even if 80% investment is swindled off, a bankrupted Pakistan can be taken possession by the usurious Chinese (for Tamil speakers, Kandhuvatti Govindan), and if only the humongous Indian market can also be accessed (both for infrastructure projects, finished products, raw materials and intellectual property), then China would not only have quelled its sole competitor & challenger (India), but would have also pushed its GDP back to 10% or higher for another decade or more.

In the process, the US can also be challenged very effectively. The MSR part of OBOR is to completely encircle India. The Chinese not only want to dominate India, but they also want to make an embattled India a worthless ally for the Americans, Japanese, ASEAN countries etc. which look up to it now for challenging China significantly. A financially-greedy Chinese communist government would not otherwise accept a huge loss of investment (even if 80% may appear overstated), if there was no substantial gain in other areas (even though AIIB could be shouldering a significant portion of the losses and distributing the same to member countries without overburdening China alone). This is the Chinese geopolitical, geoeconomic and geostrategic calculus. IMHO, OBOR is *NOT* Eurasia or Africa centric is it is largely touted to be, it is quite substantially, even if not entirely, India-centric.

[SSridhar]

China champions globalisation with new Silk Road summit - AFP

BEIJING: China hosts on Sunday a summit showcasing its ambitious drive to revive ancient Silk Road trade routes and lead a new era of globalisation, just as Washington turns inward in favour of "America First" policies.

Leaders from 28 nations, including Russian President Vladimir Putin and Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, will attend the two-day meeting at Yanqi Lake, located in a Beijing suburb near the Great Wall.

But Western powers seem less enthusiastic about about the project, with Italian Prime Minister Paolo Gentiloni the only leader coming from the Group of Seven industrialised nations.

The forum will promote President Xi Jinping's One Belt, One Road Initiative (OBOR), a massive Chinese-bankrolled infrastructure project to link the country with Africa, Asia and Europe through a network of ports, railways, roads and industrial parks.

China's push comes as Washington's leadership in global trade is changing under US President Donald Trump's nationalist "America First" stance.

In Europe, anti-globalisation sentiment has grown among voters and the continent has been rattled by Britain's looming exit from the European Union.

"There is a pressing need in today's world to have a shared, open and inclusive cooperation platform... to jointly tackle global challenges," Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi told reporters ahead of the summit.

"What we need is not a hero that acts alone, but partners of cooperation that stick together," he said.

OBOR spans some 65 countries representing 60 percent of the global population and around a third of global GDP. The China Development Bank alone has earmarked $890 billion for some 900 projects.

Analysts are sceptical that the Asian giant can take the lead in global commerce, while also cautioning that an integrated world trade system where China's ruling Communist party sets the rules could come with serious risks and hidden costs.

The European Union's ambassador to Beijing, Hans Dietmar Schweisgut, recalled that EU companies have repeatedly complained about unequal market access in China.

"We hope China will implement domestically what it is preaching internationally," Schweisgut told reporters on Tuesday.

"The Chinese market, when it comes to investment, is not as opened as the European market to Chinese companies."

But Europe's large absence is a "missed opportunity" indicative of a "very inward-looking, very Eurocentric" outlook on the rise as leaders have less to gain politically at home from engagement with China, said Jean-Pierre Lehmann of Switzerland's IMD business school.

"China's a reality and it's not going to go away. We can make things better by engaging with China instead of needlessly containing it," he said.

For China, OBOR is a practical solution to relieve domestic overcapacity that plagues its industrial sectors such as steel.

It is also a way to expand its strategic global influence -- a key concern for Xi, who frequently trumpets the goal of a "great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation".

China's propaganda machine is working hard to promote OBOR, with the official Xinhua news agency boasting that it has published 30,000 stories related to the programme in the past three years.

"After the elapse of 1,300 years... powerful and prosperous China is emerging from the depth of history and returning to the centre of the world arena," the official Xinhua news agency has declared.

Trump's decision to withdraw from the now-defunct Trans-Pacific Partnership free-trade agreement gave countries "added incentive" to join OBOR, June Teufel Dreyer of the University of Miami said.

But she added: "What may look like benefits may turn out to entrap (participating countries) in a China-centred spider web."

New York-based Fitch Ratings expressed concern that "genuine infrastructure needs and commercial logic might be secondary to political motivations", leading to "a heightened risk of projects proving unprofitable".

Struggling countries could be saddled with Chinese loans requiring payment regardless of project performance, Fitch Ratings said.

Meanwhile, reports of trains loaded with Chinese goods trundling towards Europe laden but returning empty have led to the quip "One Belt, One Way," Dreyer said.

The forum will be China's first chance since OBOR's launch in 2013 to formally communicate its policies to participants on a large scale, said Li Ziguo, deputy director of the OBOR research centre at the China Institute for International Studies.

"Many projects have been signed, but these need to be implemented on the ground," he said.

Yang Shu, of Lanzhou University's Institute for Central Asian Studies, said many countries still do not really understand the project.

"Even China is still unclear on what the ultimate goal is," Yang said.

[yensoy]

A financially-greedy Chinese communist government would not otherwise accept a huge loss of investment (even if 80% may appear overstated), if there was no substantial gain in other areas (even though AIIB could be shouldering a significant portion of the losses and distributing the same to member countries without overburdening China alone).

I'm not going to debate your argument but one point that should be made is the following: If you have a billion dollars spare, you look for an investment to grow your capital. If you have a trillion dollars spare, you look for something which will advance your interests. There just aren't enough safe places to park $1T. There are only so many companies you could buy, so much gold you can accumulate, and so much arable land you can grab. What you look for is to generate a revenue stream for perpetuity. Something which will make people come back to you over and over. At that point, talking about loss of investment is meaningless because such an investment cannot be liquidated easily (there won't be any other buyers with that kind of money or interests).

[SSridhar]

This Sunday, China will make a $500 billion push to challenge the West - Bloomberg

China is one of the few countries in the world today with money to spend, and Xi Jinping is ready to write some checks.

China’s president will host almost 30 world leaders in Beijing on Sunday at the first Belt and Road Forum, the centerpiece of a soft-power push backed by hundreds of billions of dollars for infrastructure projects. More than 100 countries on five continents have signed up, showing the demand for global economic cooperation despite rising protectionism in the US and Europe.

For Xi, the initiative is designed to solidify his image as one of the world’s leading advocates of globalization while US President Donald Trump cuts overseas funds in the name of “ America First.” The summit aims to ease concerns about China’s rise and boost Xi’s profile at home, where he’s become the most powerful leader since Deng Xiaoping died in 1997.

The Belt and Road Initiative “will likely be Xi’s most lasting legacy,” said Trey McArver, the London-based director of China research for TS Lombard, an investment research company. “It has the potential to remake global -- particularly Asian -- trade and economic patterns.”

The strategy also carries risks. The initiative is so far little more than a marketing slogan that encompasses all sorts of projects that China had initiated overseas for years, and major world leaders like Trump, Angela Merkel and Shinzo Abe are staying away. How Xi answers a range of outstanding questions will go a long way in determining its success.

Key to reducing uncertainty will be addressing the concerns of strategic rivals like India, Russia and the US, particularly as China’s growing military prowess lets it be more assertive over disputed territory. Chinese moves to spend more than $50 billion on an economic corridor in Pakistan, build a port in Djibouti and construct oil pipelines in central Asia are all creating infrastructure that could be used to challenge traditional powers.

“China needs to recognize that the way it perceives the Belt and Road Initiative is not necessarily the same way others will,” said Paul Haenle, a former China director on the US National Security Council who now heads the Carnegie-Tsinghua Center in Beijing. For countries like the US, he said, “it’s impossible not to view the BRI through a geopolitical lens -- a Chinese effort to build a sphere of influence.”

Excess Capacity

In September 2013, when Xi first pitched the plan at an obscure Kazakhstan university, he focused on the Eurasia landmass. Since then, it has repeatedly changed names and expanded to include the entire world, with the main goal of rebuilding the ancient trading routes from China to Europe overland and by sea.

One key driver was economic: China wants to spur growth in underdeveloped hinterlands and find more markets for excess industrial capacity. With more than $3 trillion in international reserves -- more than a quarter of the world’s total -- China has more resources than developed economies struggling to hit budget targets.

The plan gained steam last year when populist movements spurred a backlash against trade and immigration in the US and Europe. Brexit raised questions about the European Union’s viability, while Trump’s withdrawal from the Trans-Pacific Partnership gutted the biggest US push to shape global economic rules.

Trade Champion

“It was very disappointing, and it makes us feel that there is a big vacuum that Belt and Road can help to fill,” Cheah Cheng Hye, chairman and co-chief investment officer at the Hong Kong-based Value Partners Group. “So all of sudden, we begin to appreciate this Chinese initiative.”

Xi wasted no time filling the void. With exporting nations looking for a free-trade champion, he told the global elite in Davos, Switzerland, to resist protectionism and join China in boosting global commerce.

The US and Europe “almost unwittingly” created space for Xi to push China’s interests, according to Peter Cai, research fellow at the Lowy Institute for International Policy.

“China is offering an alternative to the US version of globalization,” Cai said. “In the Chinese case, it’s globalization paved by concrete: railways, highways, pipelines, ports.”

Draft Communique

This year, five European countries -- Denmark, Finland, Switzerland, France and Italy -- openly voiced support for the initiative. On trips to China in February, Italian President Sergio Mattarella proposed plans for the ports of Genoa and Trieste, while French Prime Minister Bernard Cazeneuve attended the arrival ceremony of a freight train from Lyon.

The summit will feature the likes of Russia’s Vladimir Putin, Greece’s Alexis Tsipras and the Philippines’ Rodrigo Duterte. The US will send Matt Pottinger, a special assistant to Trump and senior director for East Asia on the National Security Council, according to State Department spokesman Justin Higgins.

A draft communique circulated before the event combined a commitment to open markets with endorsements of China’s diplomatic goals, Bloomberg reported Wednesday, citing people familiar with the document. It also generated some controversy among Beijing-based diplomats who said they didn’t have enough time to vet the document, underscoring the initiative’s potential to cause conflict.

$500 Billion

China has invested more than $50 billion in Belt and Road countries since 2013, according to the official Xinhua News Agency. Credit Suisse Group AG said this month that China could pour more than $500 billion into 62 countries over five years.

China’s state-run companies like China National Petroleum Corp. and China Mobile Ltd. -- the world’s largest wireless carrier -- are positioned to reap the rewards. Executives from six of China’s largest state-run firms sought to reassure the public this week that the risks were manageable.

China’s three development banks, its Silk Road Fund and the China-led Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank were involved in $39 billion of lending outside of the country last year, up about 50 percent from 2014, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

“One Belt, One Road -- I think, it is potentially a plus,” JPMorgan Chase International Chairman Jacob Frenkel told Bloomberg Television on Friday. “And we should not worry about it because what it does is basically connects hundreds of millions of people, hundreds of millions of markets. And you know what? If somebody gains from it, that’s perfectly fine.”

Still, financial hurdles are starting to appear. China’s slowing economic growth has left fewer resources to spend overseas. Its international reserves have fallen about 6 percent over the past year, and China needs a healthy amount to defend the yuan.

Some previous Chinese ventures abroad have turned sour. While China’s no-strings-attached approach to investment is generally welcomed by developing countries, they often have poor credit ratings and questionable governance. China has struggled to recoup loans in Venezuela and Africa, and several projects in Central Asia have spurred protests. Announcements with big dollar signs often fail to materialize.

Nonetheless, Chinese scholars see the sum of Xi’s plan as bigger than any individual project. It represents a “profound change” in how China interacts with the world, according to Wang Yiwei, director of at Renmin University’s Institute of International Affairs in Beijing, who has written three books on the initiative.

“China has moved from a participant of globalization to a main leader,” he said. “It’s Globalization 2.0.”

[SSridhar]

Nepal signs up to China's new Silk Road plan - AFP

Nepal on Friday signed up to China's new Silk Road drive, a massive infrastructure project spanning some 65 countries at the centre of the Asian giant's push to expand its global influence.

The long discussed deal between impoverished Nepal and its much bigger neighbour comes just days before China hosts a summit for 28 leaders near Beijing, showcasing the ambitious plan.

The One Belt, One Road Initiative (OBOR) spearheaded by President Xi Jinping would see 60 percent of the global population and around a third of global GDP linked through a network of Chinese-bankrolled ports, railways, roads and industrial parks.

The deal will see China plough money into Nepal for a series of projects including boosting its road network, power grid and a new railway connecting the capital Kathmandu with Lhasa in Tibet.

"We believe China will bring more investment to Nepal, helping the country overcome its status as a landlocked and least developed nation," said Nepal foreign minister Prakash Saran Mahat at the signing of the deal on Friday.

Analysts have expressed concern over the Asian giant's attempt to take a lead in global commerce, cautioning that an integrated world trade system where China's Communist party sets the rules could come with serious risks and hidden costs.

New York-based Fitch Ratings said that political motivations might trump "genuine infrastructure needs and commercial logic", leading to "a heightened risk of projects proving unprofitable".

Struggling countries could be saddled with Chinese loans requiring payment regardless of project performance, Fitch Ratings said.

In Kathmandu, China's Ambassador to Nepal Yu Hong appeared aware of such criticism and described the plan as a "symphony performed by an orchestra" not China's "solo show" in a short speech at the signing ceremony.

"The Initiative is not going to be China's solo show. A better analogy would be that of a symphony performed by an orchestra composed of all participating countries," Yu said.

"The One Belt, One Road Initiative will bring new opportunities for China-Nepal cooperation and South Asia development," she added.

The newly inked deal will be closely watched by Nepal's other large neighbour, India, which has traditionally played the role of big brother to the much smaller country.

Landlocked Nepal remains dependent on India for the majority of its imports, but the previous administration aggressively courted China as part of a nationalist drive to decrease the country's reliance on New Delhi.

[Atmavik]

i cant understand this pic.

[Philip]

Sorry,just saw the OBOR td.

X-posted China Watch td.

China's OBOR.The jury is still out as what China wants is this gambit to make China the "dominant nation" on the planet.

OBOR + Old Beijing Origin Refuse.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/ ... initiative
The $900bn question: What is the Belt and Road initiative?
It’s a confusing title but it could turn out to be the largest ever infrastructure project with close to a trillion dollars being invested across the globe
A stretch of the Karakoram Highway in Xinjiang, China, a region which could be transformed by Xi Jinping’s Belt and Road initiative infrastructure plans.

Tom Phillips in Beijing
Friday 12 May 2017 02.02 BST Last modified on Friday 12 May 2017 02.12 BST
On Sunday Chinese President Xi Jinping will welcome world leaders including Russia’s Vladimir Putin, Pakistani Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif and Myanmar’s Aung San Suu Kyi to Beijing for what is billed as China’s most important diplomatic event of the year: a two-day forum celebrating Xi’s so-called ‘Belt and Road initiative’.

The Belt and what initiative?

Even Chinese officials have struggled to define the awkwardly-named scheme and a flurry of music-themed propaganda about Xi’s signature foreign policy in the lead-up to this weekend’s event has done little to clear things up.

World's biggest building project aims to make China great again
Read more
“It is not a solo song but a chorus,” one veteran Chinese diplomat claimed cryptically this week.

“[It is] a Chinese solution to global economic blues,” said the official news agency Xinhua.
Foreign minister Wang Yi has described the initiative as a “symphony of all relevant parties”.

In concrete terms, the Belt and Road initiative is an immensely ambitious development campaign through which China wants to boost trade and stimulate economic growth across Asia and beyond. It hopes to do so by building massive amounts of infrastructure connecting it to countries around the globe. By some estimates, China plans to pump $150bn into such projects each year. In a report released at the start of this year, ratings agency Fitch said an extraordinary $900bn in projects were planned or underway.

There are plans for pipelines and a port in Pakistan, bridges in Bangladesh and railways to Russia - all with the aim of creating what China calls a “modern Silk Road” trading route that Beijing believes will kick start “a new era of globalisation”.

According to the global consultancy McKinsey, the plan has the potential to massively overshadow the US’ post-war Marshall reconstruction plan, involving about 65% of the world’s population, one-third of its GDP and helping to move about a quarter of all its goods and services. Some describe Xi’s scheme as the biggest development push in history.

But why Belt and Road?

The Belt and Road initiative has two main prongs: one is called the ‘Silk Road Economic Belt’ (the belt) and the other the ‘21st Century Maritime Silk Road’ (the road).

Bewilderingly, the ‘road’ is not actually a road but rather a sea route linking China’s southern coast to east Africa and the Mediterranean. The ‘belt’ is a series of overland corridors connecting China with Europe, via Central Asia and the Middle East.

“It is a very confusing name,” admits Peter Cai, the author of a recent report about Belt and Road, who blames China’s propaganda-focused state media for failing to properly explain the concept to the world. “There is still a lot of confusion about what the Belt and Road initiative is and what it actually entails.”

The initiative’s Chinese name - yi dai yi lu or “one belt, one road” - rolls off the tongue far more easily.
When did it start and what has happened?

The initiative was officially launched in September 2013 when President Xi used a speech at a university in Kazakhstan to call for the creation of a “Silk Road Economic Belt”. The project was later expanded and re-branded with its current name.

Beijing has championed a number of achievements, foremost among them the $62 billion China-Pakistan economic corridor (Cpec), a sprawling web of motorways, power plants, wind farms, factories and railways, that supporters say will spark an “economic revolution” and create up to one million jobs in Pakistan. Other high-profile schemes include a $1.1 billion port project in Sri Lanka, a high-speed rail link in Indonesia and an industrial park in Cambodia.

Child won't sleep? Try explaining Xi Jinping's infrastructure dream to them

However, experts say that nearly four years after the initiative began most projects remain on the drawing board. “We really are at a very early stage of implementation,” says Cai, a fellow at Australia’s Lowy Institute. “It’s still early days to pass a judgement on the success or failure of the Belt and Road.”

At this weekend’s conference, China hopes to put some meat on the bones of Xi’s pet project.
Why is the Belt and Road initiative so important to China?
Observers say a number of overlapping goals lie behind China’s ‘Belt and Road’ campaign.

In many ways it is an economic plan designed to open up and create new markets for Chinese goods and technology at a time when the economy is slowing and to help export excess cement and steel capacity by shifting factories overseas to less developed countries. Beijing also hopes Xi’s initiative will help boost the economies of less developed border regions such as Xinjiang by linking them with neighbouring countries.

But many believe the Belt and Road initiative is also a geopolitical gambit to boost China’s regional clout at a time when Donald Trump’s US looks to be stepping back from Asia. “It’s about making China the dominant country in the region,” says Tom Miller, the author of a book about the scheme called China’s Asian Dream.

*(*Let's all work together to make this China's nightmare"!)

Cai said it was indisputable that Belt and Road would have geopolitical consequences, giving Beijing greater leverage over its neighbours. “It will give China more influence.”

How do other countries feel about it?

Xi’s initiative has been greeted with a mix of excitement and suspicion.

Miller, who has visited many of the countries involved, said many governments in central and south-east Asia were genuine cheerleaders. “There are certain countries, like Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan, where it is literally keeping the lights on,” he said, pointing to massive Chinese power transmission projects in those nations.

Others, however, feared that by becoming indebted to Beijing they would become “economic vassals”. Some countries, such as India, suspect the project is simply a smokescreen China is using to seize strategic control of the Indian Ocean. India’s prime minister, Narendra Modi, has accused Beijing of trying to “undermine the sovereignty of other nations” and will shun this week’s summit. 3 cheers for Mr.M!

Many in the west are also wary. Beijing has said 28 heads of state and government leaders will attend Xi’s forum but German chancellor Angela Merkel has turned down an invitation and US president Donald Trump is not expected to attend. Only one G7 leader, Italian prime minister Paolo Gentiloni, has confirmed.

The UK will be represented by the chancellor, Philip Hammond, suggesting Downing Street did not want to offend China’s leaders too much despite Theresa May’s decision to take a rain check.
Top
Philip
BRF Oldie
Posts: 16108
Joined: 01 Jan 1970
Location: India
Re: China Watch Thread-I
Postby Philip » 12 May 2017

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/ ... initiative
World's biggest building project aims to make China great again
The ‘Belt and Road initiative’ could see hundreds of billions spent from Mongolia to Malaysia, Thailand to Turkmenistan and Indonesia to Iran
by Tom Phillips in Tashkurgan
Friday 12 May 2017 01.25 BST

When the Chinese president, Xi Jinping, unveiled what some call the most ambitious development plan in history, Zhou Jun decided almost immediately he should head for the hills.

The 45-year-old entrepreneur packed his bags and set off for one of his country’s most staggeringly beautiful corners: a sleepy, high-altitude border outpost called Tashkurgan that - at almost 5,000km (3,100 miles) from Beijing - is the most westerly settlement in China.

“I saw a great opportunity to turn this little town into a mid-sized city,” Zhou explained during a tour of ‘Europa Manor’, a garish roadside spa he recently opened for Chinese tourists along the Karakoram, the legendary 1,300km highway that snakes through China’s rugged western mountains towards the 4,700m-high Khunjerab Pass.

Zhou said he was part of a wave of entrepreneurs now pouring into this isolated frontier near Pakistan, Afghanistan and Tajikistan, hoping to cash in on President Xi’s “Belt and Road initiative”, a multi-billion dollar infrastructure campaign that looks set to transform large swaths of Asia and the world beyond.

“This place is going to see big changes,” predicted Zhou, who hails from the central city of Xi’an, as he guided his visitors through an R&R centre filled with plunge pools, wicker chaise lounges and fake plastic trees.

This weekend world leaders including Russian president Vladimir Putin, Pakistani prime minister Nawaz Sharif and Turkish president Recep Tayyip Erdoğan will gather in Beijing to celebrate Xi’s plan, which supporters hail as the start of a new era of globalisation but sceptics see as a strategic ploy to cement China’s position as Asia’s top dog.

“The Belt and Road forum will go down as a landmark event in the history of Chinese foreign policy,” boasted a frontpage commentary in the Communist party’s official mouthpiece, the People’s Daily, on the eve of the event, which bears the unfortunate English acronym “Barf”.

As the last stop on the Karakoram before the border with Pakistan, Tashkurgan stands on the front line of one of the most ambitious components of Xi’s project: the $62bn China-Pakistan economic corridor (Cpec).

Officials in Beijing and Islamabad claim the corridor – a vast web of planned infrastructure projects running diagonally from the resource-rich region of Xinjiang in western China to the deep-water port of Gwadar on Pakistan’s Arabian coast – will spark an “economic revolution” in the south Asian country.

The jaw-dropping landscape of glaciers and grasslands around Tashkurgan, an ancient Silk Road trading hub that is home to China’s Tajik ethnic minority, has changed little in hundreds, if not thousands, of years. “It is worth a journey from England merely to see this place,” the British adventurer Robert Shaw marvelled after trekking through the region’s “stupendous peaks” in the late 1860s.

Children in the town of Tashkurgan. Photograph: Tom Phillips for the Guardian
But this obscure and secluded town is now bracing for a revolution of its own, as authorities cook up grand plans to transform it and the surrounding region.

In order to ferry people and equipment into this far-flung outpost, which is seven hours’ drive from the nearest major city, one of China’s highest altitude airports is being built just south of town on the Pamir plateau, a sparsely inhabited region previously the preserve of farmers, nomads and yaks.

Construction teams on both sides of the border have been rebuilding some of the most treacherous stretches of the Karakoram, the world’s highest transnational highway and a project that took two decades and more than 1,000 lives to build.

Further ahead, there are spectacular plans to build the so-called Khunjerab railway, a high-altitude line that would run roughly alongside the Karakoram and link north-eastern Pakistan with the Chinese city of Kashgar.

Such proposals are music to the ears of fortune-seekers such as Zhou who have flocked to this landlocked town to open improbably named businesses such as the Sea Front International Hotel.

Passengers sit in an open topped vehicle on the Karakoram Highway, Photograph: Tom Phillips for the Guardian
“The next 10 years are going to bring tremendous change,” Zhou boasted. He claimed, with a heavy dose of hyperbole, that the town’s future might resemble that of skyscraper-studded mega-cities such as Shanghai and Guangzhou.

Muzaffar Shah, a Pakistani salesman who was passing through the Chinese city on his way back from a shopping expedition to the bazaars of Kashgar, said he also sensed change was coming.

Shah remembered his first trip to Tashkurgan, in 1993, when “it was nothing”. “This is growing very fast [now] – very, very fast,” he added over a plate of yak curry by the Karakoram, which Chinese travellers call the China-Pakistan Friendship Highway. “Everything has changed.”

Over the coming years Tashkurgan is unlikely to be the only place to feel the effects of China’s infrastructure crusade, which some compare to America’s post-war Marshall plan to rebuild Europe.

Nuyuft Arkin, a 45-year- old farmer, outside the new home on the outskirts of Tashkurgan.

From Mongolia to Malaysia, Thailand to Turkmenistan and Indonesia to Iran, a slew of Chinese projects, including power plants, solar farms, motorways, bridges, ports and high-speed rail links, are set to be built with support from China’s banks and work force.

According to some estimates, China will bankroll some $150bn of infrastructure projects each year in countries that embrace Xi’s signature foreign policy initiative.

Tom Miller, the author of a recent book about Xi’s Asian infrastructure blitz, said the Belt and Road schemes were part of a vast wave of Chinese capital that was now “washing over the world”.

So many economic and geo-political goals lay behind the program that it defied one simple definition but essentially it was Xi’s answer to Donald Trump’s #MAGA: “Let’s Make China Great Again”.

“It is part of a push to cement China’s position as the undisputed power of Asia,” he said.

“China’s greatest strengths are financial – it has enormous economic muscle – and building infrastructure. So it is putting those things together and using its economic diplomacy to build roads, railways, ports, powerlines [that will help] integrate Asia [and] puts China at the centre of Asia.”

“It is very significant because China is the only country that has the capacity to build infrastructure like this and the only country that is willing to do it,” Miller added.

Child won't sleep? Try explaining Xi Jinping's infrastructure dream to them
Read more
“You can be very sceptical about what the Belt and Road itself means … but nobody doubts that China is lending a lot of money and building a lot of stuff.”

The winds of change have already been blowing in Tashkurgan and affecting its 40,000-strong population.

Physically and culturally, the town, which is the main home of the Sarikoli-speaking Tajik minority, is about as far from Beijing as you can get, without crossing China’s 22,000km border.

An exhibit at the local government museum, the Tajik Folk Culture Exhibition Hall, describes its natives as having “typical features of Caucasian race, with light skin coloration, golden yellow or dark brown hair, dark blue or gray brown eyes, thin lip, high nose, not high cheekbone, developed body hair and beard.”

Slowly, however, the make-up of the population is changing. Locals say the last decade has seen a major influx of Mandarin-speaking immigrants from China’s ethnic Han majority after the government began trying to boost the local economy by turning the picturesque border town into a tourist destination.

Those efforts intensified following an outbreak of deadly ethnic rioting in Xinjiang’s capital, Urumqi, in 2009 as authorities began pushing for a burst of “leapfrog” economic development that might calm the province’s violence-hit south.

Miller said one of the Belt and Road initiative’s key aims was to bring development and stability to China’s deprived periphery by linking such regions with overseas markets.

“Particularly in Xinjiang, China believes that economic development can help solve some of the security questions with its own militant Muslim minority and Islamist problems over the borders. They think that if you give people jobs and economic hope then perhaps they will be less inclined to foment insurgencies and other things,” he said.

“I think they are mistaken there … but that is how they think,” Miller added.

A Chinese flag flies over Tashkurgan. Photograph: Tom Phillips for the Guardian
The ever-present security forces on Tashkurgan’s otherwise tranquil streets give it the feel of an Alpine resort crossed with the West Bank and public expressions of dissent are rare.

Asked how they felt about the town’s future, locals firmly stuck to the party line and said they were hopeful Xi’s project would inject new life into the area.

“We fully support the Belt and Road initiative,” beamed Narzi Baygim, a 23-year-old Tajik tour guide who said she hoped it would bring more tourists to the region. “I think it will help connect China to other countries and to promote friendship.”

Rebiya, a 22-year-old interpreter, said she was glad to have been born and raised in such a scenic and pristine corner of China. “Living here is like living in heaven,” she said.

But development was welcome, she said, shrugging off the suggestion that Tajik traditions might be diluted by the influx of outsiders.

“[Our culture] has been passed down over the past 2,000 years and has become part of our DNA,” she said. “I don’t think it will vanish just because of economic development.”

While business people are banking on the transformation of the region around Tashkurgan, not everyone is convinced the reality will live up to Xi’s grand vision. Some point out that since the Belt and Road initiative began in 2013 trade between Xinjiang and foreign countries has actually fallen.

Rahber Khan, the owner of a Pakistani restaurant near the town’s main square, said he feared most Chinese investment was destined for the strategic port of Gwadar, not the impoverished region where his family lived.

“Maybe in the future we are growing but right now we don’t see anything good in front of us,” said Khan, 39, who is originally from Ghulkin, a village just over the border.

“I’m not sure if it’s coming or not,” he said of plans to connect Pakistan and China with the Khunjerab railway, adding: “It’s just talking.”

Before this weekend’s summit in Beijing, China has trumpeted its commitment to the “game-changing” initiative in a barrage of state-sponsored propaganda.

“At a time when certain western powers are retreating into protectionism and isolation, China has been promoting the globalisation of the economy in a spirit of openness and inclusiveness,” the official news agency Xinhua declared.

The English-language China Daily newspaper described the drive as “one of the most important public goods China offers the world”.

Outside Khan’s restaurant, the Communist party has also set out its stall, stamping its message onto a giant red billboard that towers over Tashkurgan’s main square.

“Build a beautiful Xinjiang!” the sign reads. “Make a Chinese dream come true!”

Additional reporting by Wang Zhen

[Philip]

Sorry,just saw the OBOR td.

X-posted China Watch td.

China's OBOR.The jury is still out as what China wants is this gambit to make China the "dominant nation" on the planet.

OBOR + Old Beijing Origin Refuse.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/ ... initiative
The $900bn question: What is the Belt and Road initiative?
It’s a confusing title but it could turn out to be the largest ever infrastructure project with close to a trillion dollars being invested across the globe
A stretch of the Karakoram Highway in Xinjiang, China, a region which could be transformed by Xi Jinping’s Belt and Road initiative infrastructure plans.

Tom Phillips in Beijing
Friday 12 May 2017 02.02 BST Last modified on Friday 12 May 2017 02.12 BST
On Sunday Chinese President Xi Jinping will welcome world leaders including Russia’s Vladimir Putin, Pakistani Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif and Myanmar’s Aung San Suu Kyi to Beijing for what is billed as China’s most important diplomatic event of the year: a two-day forum celebrating Xi’s so-called ‘Belt and Road initiative’.

The Belt and what initiative?

Even Chinese officials have struggled to define the awkwardly-named scheme and a flurry of music-themed propaganda about Xi’s signature foreign policy in the lead-up to this weekend’s event has done little to clear things up.

World's biggest building project aims to make China great again
Read more
“It is not a solo song but a chorus,” one veteran Chinese diplomat claimed cryptically this week.

“[It is] a Chinese solution to global economic blues,” said the official news agency Xinhua.
Foreign minister Wang Yi has described the initiative as a “symphony of all relevant parties”.

In concrete terms, the Belt and Road initiative is an immensely ambitious development campaign through which China wants to boost trade and stimulate economic growth across Asia and beyond. It hopes to do so by building massive amounts of infrastructure connecting it to countries around the globe. By some estimates, China plans to pump $150bn into such projects each year. In a report released at the start of this year, ratings agency Fitch said an extraordinary $900bn in projects were planned or underway.

There are plans for pipelines and a port in Pakistan, bridges in Bangladesh and railways to Russia - all with the aim of creating what China calls a “modern Silk Road” trading route that Beijing believes will kick start “a new era of globalisation”.

According to the global consultancy McKinsey, the plan has the potential to massively overshadow the US’ post-war Marshall reconstruction plan, involving about 65% of the world’s population, one-third of its GDP and helping to move about a quarter of all its goods and services. Some describe Xi’s scheme as the biggest development push in history.

But why Belt and Road?

The Belt and Road initiative has two main prongs: one is called the ‘Silk Road Economic Belt’ (the belt) and the other the ‘21st Century Maritime Silk Road’ (the road).

Bewilderingly, the ‘road’ is not actually a road but rather a sea route linking China’s southern coast to east Africa and the Mediterranean. The ‘belt’ is a series of overland corridors connecting China with Europe, via Central Asia and the Middle East.

“It is a very confusing name,” admits Peter Cai, the author of a recent report about Belt and Road, who blames China’s propaganda-focused state media for failing to properly explain the concept to the world. “There is still a lot of confusion about what the Belt and Road initiative is and what it actually entails.”

The initiative’s Chinese name - yi dai yi lu or “one belt, one road” - rolls off the tongue far more easily.
When did it start and what has happened?

The initiative was officially launched in September 2013 when President Xi used a speech at a university in Kazakhstan to call for the creation of a “Silk Road Economic Belt”. The project was later expanded and re-branded with its current name.

Beijing has championed a number of achievements, foremost among them the $62 billion China-Pakistan economic corridor (Cpec), a sprawling web of motorways, power plants, wind farms, factories and railways, that supporters say will spark an “economic revolution” and create up to one million jobs in Pakistan. Other high-profile schemes include a $1.1 billion port project in Sri Lanka, a high-speed rail link in Indonesia and an industrial park in Cambodia.

Child won't sleep? Try explaining Xi Jinping's infrastructure dream to them

However, experts say that nearly four years after the initiative began most projects remain on the drawing board. “We really are at a very early stage of implementation,” says Cai, a fellow at Australia’s Lowy Institute. “It’s still early days to pass a judgement on the success or failure of the Belt and Road.”

At this weekend’s conference, China hopes to put some meat on the bones of Xi’s pet project.
Why is the Belt and Road initiative so important to China?
Observers say a number of overlapping goals lie behind China’s ‘Belt and Road’ campaign.

In many ways it is an economic plan designed to open up and create new markets for Chinese goods and technology at a time when the economy is slowing and to help export excess cement and steel capacity by shifting factories overseas to less developed countries. Beijing also hopes Xi’s initiative will help boost the economies of less developed border regions such as Xinjiang by linking them with neighbouring countries.

But many believe the Belt and Road initiative is also a geopolitical gambit to boost China’s regional clout at a time when Donald Trump’s US looks to be stepping back from Asia. “It’s about making China the dominant country in the region,” says Tom Miller, the author of a book about the scheme called China’s Asian Dream.

*(*Let's all work together to make this China's nightmare"!)

Cai said it was indisputable that Belt and Road would have geopolitical consequences, giving Beijing greater leverage over its neighbours. “It will give China more influence.”

How do other countries feel about it?

Xi’s initiative has been greeted with a mix of excitement and suspicion.

Miller, who has visited many of the countries involved, said many governments in central and south-east Asia were genuine cheerleaders. “There are certain countries, like Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan, where it is literally keeping the lights on,” he said, pointing to massive Chinese power transmission projects in those nations.

Others, however, feared that by becoming indebted to Beijing they would become “economic vassals”. Some countries, such as India, suspect the project is simply a smokescreen China is using to seize strategic control of the Indian Ocean. India’s prime minister, Narendra Modi, has accused Beijing of trying to “undermine the sovereignty of other nations” and will shun this week’s summit. 3 cheers for Mr.M!

Many in the west are also wary. Beijing has said 28 heads of state and government leaders will attend Xi’s forum but German chancellor Angela Merkel has turned down an invitation and US president Donald Trump is not expected to attend. Only one G7 leader, Italian prime minister Paolo Gentiloni, has confirmed.

The UK will be represented by the chancellor, Philip Hammond, suggesting Downing Street did not want to offend China’s leaders too much despite Theresa May’s decision to take a rain check.
Top
Philip
BRF Oldie
Posts: 16108
Joined: 01 Jan 1970
Location: India
Re: China Watch Thread-I
Postby Philip » 12 May 2017

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/ ... initiative
World's biggest building project aims to make China great again
The ‘Belt and Road initiative’ could see hundreds of billions spent from Mongolia to Malaysia, Thailand to Turkmenistan and Indonesia to Iran
by Tom Phillips in Tashkurgan
Friday 12 May 2017 01.25 BST

When the Chinese president, Xi Jinping, unveiled what some call the most ambitious development plan in history, Zhou Jun decided almost immediately he should head for the hills.

The 45-year-old entrepreneur packed his bags and set off for one of his country’s most staggeringly beautiful corners: a sleepy, high-altitude border outpost called Tashkurgan that - at almost 5,000km (3,100 miles) from Beijing - is the most westerly settlement in China.

“I saw a great opportunity to turn this little town into a mid-sized city,” Zhou explained during a tour of ‘Europa Manor’, a garish roadside spa he recently opened for Chinese tourists along the Karakoram, the legendary 1,300km highway that snakes through China’s rugged western mountains towards the 4,700m-high Khunjerab Pass.

Zhou said he was part of a wave of entrepreneurs now pouring into this isolated frontier near Pakistan, Afghanistan and Tajikistan, hoping to cash in on President Xi’s “Belt and Road initiative”, a multi-billion dollar infrastructure campaign that looks set to transform large swaths of Asia and the world beyond.

“This place is going to see big changes,” predicted Zhou, who hails from the central city of Xi’an, as he guided his visitors through an R&R centre filled with plunge pools, wicker chaise lounges and fake plastic trees.

This weekend world leaders including Russian president Vladimir Putin, Pakistani prime minister Nawaz Sharif and Turkish president Recep Tayyip Erdoğan will gather in Beijing to celebrate Xi’s plan, which supporters hail as the start of a new era of globalisation but sceptics see as a strategic ploy to cement China’s position as Asia’s top dog.

“The Belt and Road forum will go down as a landmark event in the history of Chinese foreign policy,” boasted a frontpage commentary in the Communist party’s official mouthpiece, the People’s Daily, on the eve of the event, which bears the unfortunate English acronym “Barf”.

As the last stop on the Karakoram before the border with Pakistan, Tashkurgan stands on the front line of one of the most ambitious components of Xi’s project: the $62bn China-Pakistan economic corridor (Cpec).

Officials in Beijing and Islamabad claim the corridor – a vast web of planned infrastructure projects running diagonally from the resource-rich region of Xinjiang in western China to the deep-water port of Gwadar on Pakistan’s Arabian coast – will spark an “economic revolution” in the south Asian country.

The jaw-dropping landscape of glaciers and grasslands around Tashkurgan, an ancient Silk Road trading hub that is home to China’s Tajik ethnic minority, has changed little in hundreds, if not thousands, of years. “It is worth a journey from England merely to see this place,” the British adventurer Robert Shaw marvelled after trekking through the region’s “stupendous peaks” in the late 1860s.

Children in the town of Tashkurgan. Photograph: Tom Phillips for the Guardian
But this obscure and secluded town is now bracing for a revolution of its own, as authorities cook up grand plans to transform it and the surrounding region.

In order to ferry people and equipment into this far-flung outpost, which is seven hours’ drive from the nearest major city, one of China’s highest altitude airports is being built just south of town on the Pamir plateau, a sparsely inhabited region previously the preserve of farmers, nomads and yaks.

Construction teams on both sides of the border have been rebuilding some of the most treacherous stretches of the Karakoram, the world’s highest transnational highway and a project that took two decades and more than 1,000 lives to build.

Further ahead, there are spectacular plans to build the so-called Khunjerab railway, a high-altitude line that would run roughly alongside the Karakoram and link north-eastern Pakistan with the Chinese city of Kashgar.

Such proposals are music to the ears of fortune-seekers such as Zhou who have flocked to this landlocked town to open improbably named businesses such as the Sea Front International Hotel.

Passengers sit in an open topped vehicle on the Karakoram Highway, Photograph: Tom Phillips for the Guardian
“The next 10 years are going to bring tremendous change,” Zhou boasted. He claimed, with a heavy dose of hyperbole, that the town’s future might resemble that of skyscraper-studded mega-cities such as Shanghai and Guangzhou.

Muzaffar Shah, a Pakistani salesman who was passing through the Chinese city on his way back from a shopping expedition to the bazaars of Kashgar, said he also sensed change was coming.

Shah remembered his first trip to Tashkurgan, in 1993, when “it was nothing”. “This is growing very fast [now] – very, very fast,” he added over a plate of yak curry by the Karakoram, which Chinese travellers call the China-Pakistan Friendship Highway. “Everything has changed.”

Over the coming years Tashkurgan is unlikely to be the only place to feel the effects of China’s infrastructure crusade, which some compare to America’s post-war Marshall plan to rebuild Europe.

Nuyuft Arkin, a 45-year- old farmer, outside the new home on the outskirts of Tashkurgan.

From Mongolia to Malaysia, Thailand to Turkmenistan and Indonesia to Iran, a slew of Chinese projects, including power plants, solar farms, motorways, bridges, ports and high-speed rail links, are set to be built with support from China’s banks and work force.

According to some estimates, China will bankroll some $150bn of infrastructure projects each year in countries that embrace Xi’s signature foreign policy initiative.

Tom Miller, the author of a recent book about Xi’s Asian infrastructure blitz, said the Belt and Road schemes were part of a vast wave of Chinese capital that was now “washing over the world”.

So many economic and geo-political goals lay behind the program that it defied one simple definition but essentially it was Xi’s answer to Donald Trump’s #MAGA: “Let’s Make China Great Again”.

“It is part of a push to cement China’s position as the undisputed power of Asia,” he said.

“China’s greatest strengths are financial – it has enormous economic muscle – and building infrastructure. So it is putting those things together and using its economic diplomacy to build roads, railways, ports, powerlines [that will help] integrate Asia [and] puts China at the centre of Asia.”

“It is very significant because China is the only country that has the capacity to build infrastructure like this and the only country that is willing to do it,” Miller added.

Child won't sleep? Try explaining Xi Jinping's infrastructure dream to them
Read more
“You can be very sceptical about what the Belt and Road itself means … but nobody doubts that China is lending a lot of money and building a lot of stuff.”

The winds of change have already been blowing in Tashkurgan and affecting its 40,000-strong population.

Physically and culturally, the town, which is the main home of the Sarikoli-speaking Tajik minority, is about as far from Beijing as you can get, without crossing China’s 22,000km border.

An exhibit at the local government museum, the Tajik Folk Culture Exhibition Hall, describes its natives as having “typical features of Caucasian race, with light skin coloration, golden yellow or dark brown hair, dark blue or gray brown eyes, thin lip, high nose, not high cheekbone, developed body hair and beard.”

Slowly, however, the make-up of the population is changing. Locals say the last decade has seen a major influx of Mandarin-speaking immigrants from China’s ethnic Han majority after the government began trying to boost the local economy by turning the picturesque border town into a tourist destination.

Those efforts intensified following an outbreak of deadly ethnic rioting in Xinjiang’s capital, Urumqi, in 2009 as authorities began pushing for a burst of “leapfrog” economic development that might calm the province’s violence-hit south.

Miller said one of the Belt and Road initiative’s key aims was to bring development and stability to China’s deprived periphery by linking such regions with overseas markets.

“Particularly in Xinjiang, China believes that economic development can help solve some of the security questions with its own militant Muslim minority and Islamist problems over the borders. They think that if you give people jobs and economic hope then perhaps they will be less inclined to foment insurgencies and other things,” he said.

“I think they are mistaken there … but that is how they think,” Miller added.

A Chinese flag flies over Tashkurgan. Photograph: Tom Phillips for the Guardian
The ever-present security forces on Tashkurgan’s otherwise tranquil streets give it the feel of an Alpine resort crossed with the West Bank and public expressions of dissent are rare.

Asked how they felt about the town’s future, locals firmly stuck to the party line and said they were hopeful Xi’s project would inject new life into the area.

“We fully support the Belt and Road initiative,” beamed Narzi Baygim, a 23-year-old Tajik tour guide who said she hoped it would bring more tourists to the region. “I think it will help connect China to other countries and to promote friendship.”

Rebiya, a 22-year-old interpreter, said she was glad to have been born and raised in such a scenic and pristine corner of China. “Living here is like living in heaven,” she said.

But development was welcome, she said, shrugging off the suggestion that Tajik traditions might be diluted by the influx of outsiders.

“[Our culture] has been passed down over the past 2,000 years and has become part of our DNA,” she said. “I don’t think it will vanish just because of economic development.”

While business people are banking on the transformation of the region around Tashkurgan, not everyone is convinced the reality will live up to Xi’s grand vision. Some point out that since the Belt and Road initiative began in 2013 trade between Xinjiang and foreign countries has actually fallen.

Rahber Khan, the owner of a Pakistani restaurant near the town’s main square, said he feared most Chinese investment was destined for the strategic port of Gwadar, not the impoverished region where his family lived.

“Maybe in the future we are growing but right now we don’t see anything good in front of us,” said Khan, 39, who is originally from Ghulkin, a village just over the border.

“I’m not sure if it’s coming or not,” he said of plans to connect Pakistan and China with the Khunjerab railway, adding: “It’s just talking.”

Before this weekend’s summit in Beijing, China has trumpeted its commitment to the “game-changing” initiative in a barrage of state-sponsored propaganda.

“At a time when certain western powers are retreating into protectionism and isolation, China has been promoting the globalisation of the economy in a spirit of openness and inclusiveness,” the official news agency Xinhua declared.

The English-language China Daily newspaper described the drive as “one of the most important public goods China offers the world”.

Outside Khan’s restaurant, the Communist party has also set out its stall, stamping its message onto a giant red billboard that towers over Tashkurgan’s main square.

“Build a beautiful Xinjiang!” the sign reads. “Make a Chinese dream come true!”

Additional reporting by Wang Zhen

[SSridhar]

India to be represented by embassy staff at China's new Silk Road summit - Reuters

India is likely to be represented by local embassy staff or academics this weekend at a major gathering of leaders and ministers on China's "Silk Road" initiative, reflecting deep unease in New Delhi about the far-reaching project.

India's main objection to China's plan to build ports, railways and power links across Asia and on to Europe is that the $57 billion China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), a key part of the plan, runs through Kashmir.

Even Vietnam, which has had rocky ties with China, will be represented by its president, while Japan, driving its own infrastructure push across Asia, is sending a deputy trade minister and the secretary-general of the ruling party.

India, meanwhile, is expected to send representatives from the embassy in Beijing, two officials said, speaking on condition of anonymity because of the sensitivity of the matter.

Chinese foreign ministry spokesman Geng Shuang said that, as far as he knew, Indian academics would be participating in "relevant activities" at the Belt and Road Forum. He gave no other details and offered no further comment.

Foreign Ministry spokesman Gopal Baglay said no decision had been taken on whether a government delegation would attend the meeting.

"The matter is under consideration," he said, a position the government has maintained since March when China extended an invitation. Since then it has stepped up efforts to get India to attend.

Baglay said India supported connectivity across the region, but there was a problem with the Pakistan end of "One Belt, One Road" (OBOR) - a term widely used to describe the project.

"As far as OBOR is concerned, you know that our position is that since the so-called CPEC forms a part of OBOR, that is where our difficulty is.

"It passes or proposes to pass through what is sovereign Indian territory and we have made our views in this regard very, very clear to the Chinese side."

Jayadeva Ranade, a former China specialist on the government's National Security Advisory Board, said India saw the Silk Road as a strategic Chinese initiative, and that the Pakistan corridor was particularly worrying because it raised fears of encirclement.

"It has already begun to squeeze the strategic space of China's neighbours as well as bend borders."

But some officials and experts have urged the government not to miss out on opportunities presented by the initiative to boost transport and trade links.

Mehbooba Mufti, chief minister of the Indian state of Jammu and Kashmir, said the troubled region could benefit from the Chinese project as it would boost economic activity.

"China's economy is nearly five times the size of India's. So at this stage, it's absurd for India to pick a confrontational path, they need to first grow their economy and then come up with all these strategies to confront China," said Kai Xue, a Beijing-based lawyer at DeHeng Law Offices. {But, international relationships don't work like that, do they?}

[chola]

The swept and scope of this thing is grand indeed. You have to give that to the chinis.

This is what a fvcking printing press does for you. Money like waterfall.

We can hope that they've overreached on this one and they rupture a hernia by lifting something far too heavy.

But the vision is breathtaking. Like an epic film unfolding across wide vistas. Usually, such a film has mighty goras spreading the white man's burden across the swarthy lands of the uncouthed. But here we have little chinamen building and building their way across the world . . .

[shiv]

India to be represented by embassy staff at China's new Silk Road summit - Reuters

"China's economy is nearly five times the size of India's. So at this stage, it's absurd for India to pick a confrontational path, they need to first grow their economy and then come up with all these strategies to confront China," said Kai Xue, a Beijing-based lawyer at DeHeng Law Offices. {But, international relationships don't work like that, do they?} [/b]

From the Chinese psyche thread

.Everybody is your competitor, and they must be your stepping stones, people whom you trample to increase your own standing. The disparity in resources enjoyed is also blatant and unapologetic. Typically 95% of resources are monopolized by 5% of people, and this is thought to be natural as it differentiates "Mediocre" people from "Heaven's Chosen" This blatant discrimination is rationalized by saying that the resources would be wasted on the 'mediocre' ones while the 'Chosen' would use it to its full potential. Another argument is the phrase "Worship the strong and despise the Weak" Even if the weak are innocent. Because who told them to offend the strong when they cannot afford to?

[venug]

Just what is this One Belt, One Road thing anyway?

No one is totally sure. At the most basic level, One Belt, One Road (OBOR) is a collection of interlinking trade deals and infrastructure projects throughout Eurasia and the Pacific, but the definition of what exactly qualifies as an OBOR project or which countries are even involved in the initiative is incredibly fuzzy.
"It means everything and it means nothing at the same time," said Christopher Balding, a professor of economics at Peking University.

As an example of what an all-encompassing buzzword its become, state media has claimed OBOR will benefit: the Middle East peace process, start-ups in Dubai, currency trading, global poverty reduction, Xinjiang's medical industry, Australian hotels, nuclear power, Polish orchards, and, finally, the entire world.

Jörg Wuttke of the EU Chamber of Commerce in China, warned this week the initiative has increasingly "been hijacked by Chinese companies, which have used it as an excuse to evade capital controls, smuggling money out of the country by disguising it as international investments and partnerships."

....
What are the economic risks?

According to Chinese state media, some $1 trillion has already been invested in OBOR, with another several trillion due to be invested over the next decade.
There are two main benefits for Beijing from this: economic, and political -- both with their own significant risks.

While China stands to reap major benefits from OBOR projects, it is also footing a significant proportion of the risks entailed with them.
Many key countries targeted by OBOR -- in central Asia, Africa and southeast Asia -- are prone to economic and political instability and corruption.
What happens when an OBOR project funded by the Chinese government fails is unclear, said Xu. He warned that if a series of projects fail at the same time, "then the whole thing could collapse."
Balding said China "has a very poor track record of their investment overseas," pointing to widespread problems with Chinese projects in Venezuela, Sri Lanka and Myanmar.
He added that OBOR in particular is characterized by projects with "very little economic rationale for China."
Wuttke warned the project could be remembered as a "huge white elephant that left an enormous amount of wasted resources strewn along its path."

What are the political risks?

If successful, OBOR could see China supplant the US as the main superpower in much of the world -- but Xu warned the project could also backfire considerably because of its size.
As well as economic fragility, some projects in Asia also carry significant security risks, particularly the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor, where more than 13,000 Pakistani troops have already been deployed to protect the project, which runs through the South Asian country's restive tribal regions.
Previous Chinese overseas investments have also earned a bad reputation for not delivering for local economies, said Marro.
"The most notorious allegations have been levied against Chinese investment in Africa, which often sees large, state-owned companies set up shop, bring in workers from China -- as opposed to hiring locally -- and then re-export mined raw materials back home," he said.
Marro said Chinese overseas investment, and the way it is run, is maturing but expressed concerns that the OBOR project is so large, exercising effective supervision over the varying elements may prove difficult.
Given the vast size of the OBOR initiative, if things go wrong, it could be a major blight on China's reputation in much of the world.

[venug]

India is mentioned as one of the 68 nations supporting this white elephant.

[manjgu]

totally agree Chola...a) the chinese are setting the agenda and we are merely reacting. we cant even protect our own backyard !! total failure to synergise military, economic, political might which the Hans have clearly done. The chinese leadership has a vision for their country..and the vision here is how to win the next state election. b) One thing which beats me..is that chinese have anyway flooded the markets across the world...unless the receiving economies grow fast enough, how will they absorb more stuff from the Hans. I know that the OBOR has significant military component to it.

[KLNMurthy]

Sridhar, what I meant was that India is planning to unite with US and Japan to counter CPEC by engaging in naval exercises in the coming days, as I read here in BRF, I wonder why? Not to mention one of the ten principles of macroeconomics is that trade can make everyone better off, as opportunity cost plays a key role.

Neshant, I didn’t mean that India is weak and thus join hands with a stronger China, rather I envision a united world as one system. It could be a utopian and idealistic thought, but given the status quo of global affairs, including ongoing and upcoming wars, nuclear proliferation, terrorism, climate change, poverty, overpopulation, depletion of natural resources (fresh water, fossil fuel and arable lands), the only way forward is a peaceful coexistence of one world, IMHO.

How is a naval exercise a counter to CPEC?

[shiv]

I am a bit slow on the uptake. Can someone explain to me exactly what the Chinese are doing that makes us need to flagellate ourselves and lament? Let me in on the secret please

[KLNMurthy]

There is a time for the rapier and a time for the broadsword. This is not the rapier time.

OBOR isn't dying anytime soon. Xi will throw a trillion dollars at it if that is what it takes. We don't need to jump with enthusiasm, but we can be there to savour the souring of mood. Anyway this is a meaningless discussion - I think GoI will indeed attend this with a downgraded (but not in my opinion junior enough) representation.

Going to the summit means endorsing paki occupation of Gilgit-baltistan. You know Chinese think that way. That's India's main objection. Unless you can show that there is some way to credibly attend the summit, while not endorsing the occupation of Gilgit-baltistan, I don't see any way around India's objection.

[Falijee]

Wahhabism, meet Han-ism: CPEC betokens China’s search for lebensraum in Pakistan and Pakistan occupied Kashmir

Dangers of the CPEC to India and also to Gilgit Baltistan are highlighted well in this article !

[Neshant]

It looks like a ploy to plant navy bases around the Indian Ocean region.

They are already shipping walmart junk all over the place by sea and road.

No country wants any more of it because all it creates are trade deficits.

[shiv]

totally agree Chola...a) the chinese are setting the agenda and we are merely reacting. we cant even protect our own backyard !! total failure to synergise military, economic, political might which the Hans have clearly done. The chinese leadership has a vision for their country..and the vision here is how to win the next state election. b) One thing which beats me..is that Chinese have anyway flooded the markets across the world...unless the receiving economies grow fast enough, how will they absorb more stuff from the Hans. I know that the OBOR has significant military component to it.

What I fail to understand is this. It is being claimed in various article and on here that China has "excess capacity" in infrastructure building which is now being applied to build infrastructure all over the world in turd world nations in a grandiose plan. But a detailed look at 2/3rds of Chinas territory shows that infrastructure is hardly "complete" in the Western Xinjiang and Tibet regions. In fact even communication into Tibet via the mountains is incomplete and there is a current still born plan to build a direct Chengdu Tibet railway so that they don't have to do this crazy "go north around the mountains and then south again" thing.

In other words the support and happiness of Tibetans and Uighurs is not a priority - they can be kept under the gun while China moves its as yet incomplete infrastructure job to other countries. But here you are complaining that elections need to be won in India as if that is a problem. Do you believe that UP and other states can be treated like Tibet or Xinjiang?

I am not sure if there is a mild racist attitude in our (Indian) minds or whether it is a sepoy mentality that makes us fearful of China while we have hardly complained about the way the west has messed with us while they dominate the system. China is messing with the cosy western order. India does that too on a smaller scale but if we must follow the China model we need to do things where China cannot compete easily. But that is a digression.

China has a grandiose plan to employ Chinese to build infrastructure around the world. Why does that worry us? Because they are not democratic? Because they don't have "freedom"? Because of this we were very happy to see Western companies build bullshit like Burj Khalifa in Dubai and fancy airports in turd-world nations, Motorways in Pakistan etc but we are scared of what China is doing? And we are happy to use the financial markets of the west where money can be parked with anonymity and no accountability. We have kowtowed to the west since before 1947 and what is this sudden fear that we will have to kowtow to someone else? What "fair deal" did we get from the west that makes us think China is worse? I can't understand what there is to "compete with China". We have to compete with ourselves.

[manjgu]

shiv.. if china grows the way it is being projected it has security implications for India. I dont care two hoots if they dont have freedom or not democratic. as china grows it becomes assertive and encourages countries like Pakistan to box above their weight. this is my basic problem with OBOR. If India manages to capture POK..i would be a supporter of OBOR . on the flip side..nations which have deep economic ties usually dont go to war and try to settle disputes thru negotiations. Your argument about West having messed with us is true but its history..the new emerging reality is china which is in our backyard.

[shiv]

The "China model" was to utilize China's cheap labour to set up factories for things that could be re-exported to the west. They started with cheap toys and stuff and moved up the value chain. India cannot now compete with China in toys, small electronics etc. But with China moving to displace the west in arms exports it gives India the opportunity for asking western companies to set up shop (screwdriver and painting) for arms assembly in India - and those arms can be sold at rates that compete with Chinese rates to third party nations.

Technically we could do to India what Pakistan and Sri Lanka and African nations did. We could invite the Chinese to build roads and telecom facilities and power plants all over India using Chinese money and labour while we boast that we are rapidly improving our infrastructure with Chinese aid. Why don't we do that? After all China has the money and the capacity to do in India what we keep howling and beating our collective breasts that we can't do as fast as China. We don't do that because India companies and Indian workers will not have employment if we did that. We would be paying the Chinese to build stuff for which we can have bragging rights like Burj Khalifa or new Islamabad airport but keeping our people unemployed and still losing our money. If we have the money and labour to build roads and bridges - that money needs to be invested mostly in India for Indian needs. Not for building roads and ports in Africa unless we have gross over-capacity.

What is this whining about India not doing what China is doing? I never saw anybody complain when Western companies built airports in every single nation in the world using their employees and earning shitloads while the client nations remained in debt to western banks. Do we believe that slavery to white man is any day preferable to slavery to the Chinese?

[shiv]

shiv.. if china grows the way it is being projected it has security implications for India. I dont care two hoots if they dont have freedom or not democratic. as china grows it becomes assertive and encourages countries like Pakistan to box above their weight. this is my basic problem with OBOR. If India manages to capture POK..i would be a supporter of OBOR . on the flip side..nations which have deep economic ties usually dont go to war and try to settle disputes thru negotiations. Your argument about West having messed with us is true but its history..the new emerging reality is china which is in our backyard.

I put it to you that you are expressing fears. Nothing wrong in expressing fear. Every goddam thing on earth has security implications for India but we seem to really crap in our pants when it comes to China worrying about "security implications". Could you spell this security implication out a little more and how that security can be improved by worrying about it without defining exactly what it is, or by saying that Indians should stop thinking about state elections while we worry about the security implications. US supplying Pakistan has security implications. Israel dealing with China has security implications. Russia selling China Su-35 and S-400 has security implications. Western companies selling components to China for its airliner C 219 has security implications. French and American ships in the Indian ocean have security implications. Turkey as NATO member and in a Sunni alliance with Pakistan has security implications. Saudi Arabia itself is a security implication. China builds one aircraft carrier: Security implication. china builds another: security implication. The entire world is a such a goddam scary place - maybe that is why we do not need toilets We must crap all the time everywhere

With respect I must say that I am sick and tired of reading words like "security implications? What the fuk does that mean? I could fill this thread with my views on that but i am not the one worrying about security implications. If that concerns you please spell it out, Undefined anxieties cannot be addressed Specific and defined problems can be addressed. Unfortunately even in the media - people who talk shit like "security implications" are doing no one a favour without defining what the hell they are getting their knickers in a twist about. What happened to "String of pearls": that we crapped in our pants about for the last decade? What is the status of that security implication?

[SSridhar]

US makes U-turn, to drive down One Belt One Road initiative - Saibal Dasgupta, ToI

BEIJING/NEW DELHI: The US has made a sudden U-turn and decided to participate in the One Belt, One Road (OBOR) initiative being organised by China with much fanfare in Beijing this Sunday and Monday.

The US move puts tremendous pressure on India, which remains undecided on whether to send representatives to the event. India maintains that China has not created an environment of trust to carry out the belt and road projects.

A very good example is the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor through which China is looking to link Xinjiang with Gwadar port, which it has built in Balochistan.

Beijing has shown scant regard for the fact that it impinges on India's sovereignty, passing as it does through the Gilgit-Baltistan region which India claims as its own.

There may not be any immediate material loss to India if it goes unrepresented because OBOR is not a membership-based organisation.

In fact, India might be praised in some quarters for taking a bold principled stand. Sources in Delhi said India at best may be represented by junior embassy officials and ruled out sending any high-level dignitary.

A few Indian academics may also be present at the meet which would attract representation from over 50 countries and international organisations like the World Bank.

Though taking part in the initiative is a political decision, the US has made it appear like a trade-off that included China's commitment to buy American beef as part of the '100-day plan' agreement.

On its part, Washington agreed to allow Chinese banks to expand operations in the US.

"India is in a dilemma," Jagannath Panda, a research fellow at the Institute for Defense Studies and Analysis in New Delhi, told TOI. "India has to take cognizance of the US decision. It is an early signal that the Trump administration is reframing the US-China relationship," he said.

The US is sending an inter-agency delegation led by Matthew Pottinger, a top adviser to the Trump administration and National Security Council senior director for East Asia.

The decision emanated directly from the meeting between the presidents of the US and China in Florida last month. "We welcome all countries to attend. And we welcome the United States' attendance as the world's largest economy," said Chinese vice-finance minister Zhu Guangyao.

China's dominant position in the programme may be somewhat diluted with the US now joining developed countries like Britain and Germany in sending representatives.

China may come under pressure to become more transparent about its plans, and whether it would follow internationally-accepted standards on environment and labour in the projects, they said.

Japan and South Korea, which have military differences with China, are sending representatives. Most other countries engaged in territorial disputes with China over the South China Sea issue, including Vietnam and Indonesia, are also sending official delegations. Pakistan, Nepal and Sri Lanka are also taking part.

Twenty-nine countries will be represented by their heads of state.

China says it would be a win-win for all countries, but there are serious doubts on whether Beijing would eagerly share the benefits in the face of pressure from Chinese companies.

The programme includes six economic corridors but no reliable map has been made available and it is evolving with time.

"What actually gets built will depend on what deals Chinese companies or the government make with other countries," abroad or on the deals that the Chinese government makes with other governments abroad, and no one knows exactly what those are going to be," said Tom Miller, author of a recent book, China's Asian Dream.

[shiv]

Why does the US move put pressure on India to reject the issue of Chinese road in Indian territory grabbed by Pakistan? Because we are sepoys/coolies by nature. Even our "strategic experts " and commentators are enslaved mentally. Thoo

[shiv]

"India is in a dilemma," Jagannath Panda, a research fellow at the Institute for Defense Studies and Analysis in New Delhi, told TOI. "India has to take cognizance of the US decision. It is an early signal that the Trump administration is reframing the US-China relationship," he said.

Why does this fellow Panda come across like an idiot to me?

[SSridhar]

I do not understand when someone says that "India is under pressure", "India is in a dilemma" etc. What is this pressure and where is the dilemma?

We are a sovereign nation, goddamn too big an economy (and hugely growing as well), a huge tempting market for every nation worth its salt. So, who can pressurize us? Why do we have this weak mentality? China cannot ignore India, absence at OBOR meet notwithstanding. It is India which has to open the spigot. If China wants to 'punish' India by not investing in our country in the future, jolly good it would be China's loss. Nature does not allow vacuum and somebody else would step in.

And, on this question of 'dilemma'. Just because the US took a decision which it felt was in its interests (and as a result of hard bargaining), why should that put India in a dilemma? There are no territorial disputes between the US & China, China is not supporting insurgency and terrorism against the US, they have not fought a war and their armies do not have frequent skirmishes, the US is still a far too powerful country that the Chinese cannot trifle with etc. and so the dynamics are very different. India has consistently said that China has not addressed India's concerns about CPEC and its POK-transit and projects in POK. These facts are *NOT* going to change just because a wayward US President decided to change tack. If it was in US interests to change course midstream, it doesn't affect India's interests, does it?

[Singha]

Cnn has a front pager on cpec bring 40.000 expats to tsp and developing love between deep friends.

http://edition.cnn.com/interactive/2017 ... rld-order/

I think chinas eventual goal for tsp is a taiwan...militarily powerful but dependent on sugar daddy for weapons and political cover

Pakis have no option but to sign up as gulf money is not going to grow and gulfies cannot provide weapons or political support. The karakoram highway must be viewed as a strategic masterstroke as it opens a peacetime conduit to tibet
There is talk of a railway also...similar challenges were overcome on the lhasa railway