Future Strategic Scenario for the Indian Subcontinent -II

[Manish_Sharma]

^^But Acharya the resurgence of Maoists in China will make khan, EU & Ruskies align with India there will be no shortage of supplies for war + the economic benefits of filling up the supplier role vacated by China.

[Manish_Sharma]

India should also think of extending its boundary till the southern most tip of tajikistan. It will be of great strategic importance.

Forget about exending the boundaries. By the population policy of Islamists the very leftover part of India is going to go there way in next 30-40 years.
Repeating the argument in my earlier posts many months ago:
West Pakistan Population in 1947 = 3 crore
Current Population = 17 crore

East Pakistan Population in 1947 = 4 crore
Current Population = 20 crore

Indian muslim population in 1947 = 4 crore
Current Population = 20 crore

Indian population in 1947 = 33 crores
Current = 1 Billion

Now whole of population in India has grown by 3 times only while islamic population has grown by 5 times.

You have now in Indian Subcontinent 57 crores muslims while non muslim population of 80 crores divided in Hindus, Jainas, Christians, Buddhists & Sikhs.

Already in blogs over the net a new silent campaign is started that the partition thing was not muslim but brahmin + british conspiracy. Slowly slowly over the next years the islamists will start asking for the unification of Indian subcontinent. And of course it would be foregone conclusion that being a majority in that unified country it should be declared a Islamic country.

So Boundaries will extend with unification of the subcontinent but the end result will be disasterous.

[brihaspati]

Manish_Sharma ji,
I think you are making an err...error! The 20 crore Indian Muslim are all "patriotic" Indians. By current wisdom, you are not allowed to project that they will place their Islamic brotherhood with Paki or BD Muslims above their patriotism for India. You will not be able to prove it, so you cannot claim it.

Surely you must have noticed that the strongest and most insistent voices of Indian non-Muslims who insist that IM are patriotic to the idea of India and will not join up with Paki or BD muslims in a ghazwa-e-Hind are typically also the ones who vehemently oppose any future extension of India into lands currently occupied by Pakis? They are actually not afraid that what they claim will turn out to be false and the IM will place Islamism higher than any concern for India. They are simply being visionary. So visionary that they care a fib for the contradiction in their attitudes. So confident of the patriotism of IM that they are scared of such patriotism getting diluted at first access to Pakis.

The population ratio is not a factor. You can turn that ratio in fact to your advantage. If a small determined minority [the early Muslims in India] could impose their hegemony over large tracts of the majority, surely a slight majority can do the reverse. It is not just the numerical strength, but the inner cohesion of purpose of the determined minority that becomes a force multiplier.

[Masaru]

Along similar lines in the eastern neighborhood which is/was termed as 'Greater India', the signs are equally ominous.

Marshal plan for S. E. Asia ?

Outside the war zones of the Middle East and South Asia, the extreme form of the faith that seeks to impose Shariah law on the state and society barely warrants a mention. Indeed, few American policy makers appear aware that more Muslims live in Southeast Asia than in the Middle East. Part of this ignorance stems from complacency. Southeast Asia's 250 million Muslims are mostly moderate and economically productive—especially when compared to their Arab peers.

But the region has hardly been impervious to the radicals' siren call. Two of the 9/11 hijackers planned their attacks in Malaysia. In 2002, Indonesia's al Qaeda affiliate, Jemaah Islamiyah, killed 202 people in Bali. An insurgency in southern Thailand has claimed more than 4,000 lives over the past six years and brought a culture of death threats and beheadings to a land more famous for its beaches and gracious hospitality. The Philippines, a Catholic-majority country, continues to grapple with Muslim separatists in Mindanao. Eight years ago, even tiny Singapore, orderly as a Swiss bank, barely pre-empted a plot to attack the United States, British and Israeli embassies.


Nonetheless, to their credit, the authors recognize that the problem facing the region is "more one of rising Islamic fundamentalism and less a massive terrorist threat." They contend that Southeast Asia's Muslims are beginning to abandon their own easy-going cultures—shot through with animist, Hindu and Buddhist influences—by turning "increasingly to the Middle East to reaffirm their identity."Social relations between Muslims and non-Muslims have become more strained, religiously bearded men and headscarved women more common, and Arabic forms of greeting now compete with those in the local language.

On the face of it, this trend looks benign. But in the long run, there's the potential for a cascading effect. Proliferating orthodox madrassas (Islamic boarding schools), rising local demands for Shariah law, and pullulating conspiracy theories about American and Jewish plots to destroy Islam have more potential to mar American relations with a traditionally friendly part of the world than the occasional bombing or botched plot. As in Pakistan, ruling elites may continue to reluctantly co-operate with America while the population turns increasingly sour on American values.

Unfortunately, while Messrs. Bond and Simons correctly diagnose the disease—fundamentalism rather than terrorism—their suggested cure is somewhat half-baked. Envisioning a kind of tropical Marshall Plan, they propose a massive commitment of American experts and advisors to eradicate poverty in the region.

But poverty, as any Indian, Vietnamese or Cambodian will tell you, is hardly a Muslim monopoly. The trouble in Islam today has less to do with access to Western skills than with the rejection of Western values. In the end, Muslim communities in Southeast Asia need not merely job creation and agricultural and industrial expertise, but—much more urgently—help nurturing a culture of human rights, a respect for all faiths, and the belief in man's power to shape his own destiny that radical Islam denies.

[brihaspati]

Here is a sequence of personal anecdotes from the Talebs. A dimension of Jihad that the west (and perhaps secularists of India) fails to grasp : the long term inter-generational target of complete erasure of all else. Failure to understand this makes for faulty strategy.

http://www.newsweek.com/id/216235/page/1
The Taliban in Their Own Words
NEWSWEEK

YOUNAS: Not long ago, when one of my younger brothers got married, my mother asked me: "Boy, when will you marry?" I told her that the day I help to bring the Taliban back to Kabul and restore the Islamic Emirate is the day I will marry. That day may be far away, but I know it will come.

KHAN: The Americans talk about getting Taliban to leave the jihad for their dollars. That's ridiculous. I was engaged to be married a year ago, but I don't have the $1,500 bride price to give to the girl's father or the $500 for the wedding. If I had money, I would not delay my marriage. Who would marry me? You'd be surprised. The people here are not worried about giving their daughter or sister to Taliban, who can get killed within one week of the wedding. They are happy to be part of the jihad.

It's not easy being in the Taliban. It's like wearing a jacket of fire. You have to leave your family and live with the knowledge that you can be killed at any time. The Americans can capture you and put you in dog cages in Bagram and Guantánamo. You can't expect any quick medical treatment if you're wounded. You don't have any money. Yet when I tell new recruits what they are facing they still freely put on this jacket of fire. All this builds my confidence that we will never lose this war.

MOHAMMAD: We never worry about time. We will fight until victory no matter how long it takes. The U.S. has the weapons, but we are prepared for a long and tireless jihad. We were born here. We will die here. We aren't going anywhere.

MASIHUDDIN: In the south the mujahedin have adjusted to Obama's new crusade by making some small strategic withdrawals and fighting back mostly with IEDs. But we mujahedin in Kunar and Nuristan are lucky. These mountains and forests are our protectors. Trees and rocks shelter us everywhere. The Americans can't match us here.

Two or three years ago, U.S. soldiers in the region acted as if they were on holiday. They were taking videos and photos of themselves and walking in the mountains for fun. They were playing games in the open. Those days are over. Now they are forced to keep their fingers on their triggers 24 hours a day.

AKHUNDZADA: Sometimes I think what's happened is like a dream. I thought my beard would be white by the time I saw what I am seeing now, but my beard is still black, and we get stronger every day.

[brihaspati]

Is there a fundamental error in the Obamaic strategy [at least on the top] of engaging the "whole of the Muslim world"? Even if we drop the contradiction in going after Iran!! Obama's making the exception shows that in his view Muslim==Sunni-Wahabi, Muslim world==Arab dominated Muslim world.

However, tactically and even at a fundamental level of strategy - is it wise to "engage the Muslims world"? Should any statesperson in the right frame of mind and sanity acknowledge and thereby reinforce an identity that has always nurtured dreams of world domination and complete erasure of all other cultures/belief/civilizations and reset the human civilizational clock starting at 7th century in the deserts of Arabia?

What Obama has done, is to give a new sense of unity and purpose to the Arab led Sunni Wahabi movement and forced the west and allies to engage the "Muslim" on the "Muslim's" terms. Thus that foreign policy initiative led to raising the stakes by the Sunni-Wahabis in making the demands on concessions on Israel-Palestine issue. The Sunnis want a lot of things, and they have successfully used Obama's folly to put the non-Islamic on to the back foot. They now want all their expansionist designs on a platter, and they want USA to use its coercive powers on the rest of the world to hand them the platter. They want destruction of Israel, they want destruction of Iran [or at least even a republic minus the theologians so that Iran loses out in the competition to claim leadership of the Ummah]. Short of this platter, they are going to throw tantrums.

If you closely follow the underlying clues in the following report, you can see that the shrewd Arab traders have upped the ante and the US admin now has its foot in its mouth because of the "engaing Muslim world" initiative. http://www.brookings.edu/opinions/2010/ ... lhami.aspx.

While American officials acknowledged the frustrations and shared the disappointment at the slow progress in peacemaking, they highlighted other accomplishments on issues that are important to the lives of people in the region such as cooperation in fighting disease and advancing scientific research. But the general tendency of many Arab and Muslim participants, as well as the Arab media, was to see in such arguments a diversion from the issues they care deeply about.

As we can see, "fighting disease" or "advancing scientific research" is not a primary Islamic concern. It is always about more land, more natural resoucres of others, displacement of all other cultures and imposition of the post-civilizational Arabian desert of the 6-7th century. The engagement fiasco has now put the "non-Muslim world" into "giving" or face Islamic tantrums - read Jihad.

POWI has consistently linked up the Israel-Palestine issue with "Kashmir". So any concession on Israel will automatically lead to pressures on "Kashmir". The Islamists are simply testing the waters. And now they have managed to trap the Americans into doing their bidding.

[kittoo]

Here is a sequence of personal anecdotes from the Talebs. A dimension of Jihad that the west (and perhaps secularists of India) fails to grasp : the long term inter-generational target of complete erasure of all else. Failure to understand this makes for faulty strategy.

http://www.newsweek.com/id/216235/page/1
The Taliban in Their Own Words
NEWSWEEK

YOUNAS: Not long ago, when one of my younger brothers got married, my mother asked me: "Boy, when will you marry?" I told her that the day I help to bring the Taliban back to Kabul and restore the Islamic Emirate is the day I will marry. That day may be far away, but I know it will come.

KHAN: The Americans talk about getting Taliban to leave the jihad for their dollars. That's ridiculous. I was engaged to be married a year ago, but I don't have the $1,500 bride price to give to the girl's father or the $500 for the wedding. If I had money, I would not delay my marriage. Who would marry me? You'd be surprised. The people here are not worried about giving their daughter or sister to Taliban, who can get killed within one week of the wedding. They are happy to be part of the jihad.

It's not easy being in the Taliban. It's like wearing a jacket of fire. You have to leave your family and live with the knowledge that you can be killed at any time. The Americans can capture you and put you in dog cages in Bagram and Guantánamo. You can't expect any quick medical treatment if you're wounded. You don't have any money. Yet when I tell new recruits what they are facing they still freely put on this jacket of fire. All this builds my confidence that we will never lose this war.

MOHAMMAD: We never worry about time. We will fight until victory no matter how long it takes. The U.S. has the weapons, but we are prepared for a long and tireless jihad. We were born here. We will die here. We aren't going anywhere.

MASIHUDDIN: In the south the mujahedin have adjusted to Obama's new crusade by making some small strategic withdrawals and fighting back mostly with IEDs. But we mujahedin in Kunar and Nuristan are lucky. These mountains and forests are our protectors. Trees and rocks shelter us everywhere. The Americans can't match us here.

Two or three years ago, U.S. soldiers in the region acted as if they were on holiday. They were taking videos and photos of themselves and walking in the mountains for fun. They were playing games in the open. Those days are over. Now they are forced to keep their fingers on their triggers 24 hours a day.

AKHUNDZADA: Sometimes I think what's happened is like a dream. I thought my beard would be white by the time I saw what I am seeing now, but my beard is still black, and we get stronger every day.

After reading 'America Alone: The end of the world as we know it' by Mark Steyn, these things all came into easy perspective for me. Now I feel like, 'why can't pseudo-secularists of India and the world, these ultra-liberal multiculturalists see what is so clear, even when the enemy itself says it in their face?'
While I was aware of the strange ways of the world earlier too, but after reading that book, I dont get restless but just think, cause now I know they will never listen until it will be too late.

[brihaspati]

The BD High court has declared the provisions of the Chittagong Hill tracts "Peace agreement" null and void, because it goes against the "oneness" of the BD rashtra. Two important consequences :

The BD gov is of course at fault for nothaving amended the constitution properly before implementing the accord. However, BD shows the tendency of reverting amendments later on. An example perhaps of what judicial activism by a small group of judges, completely detached from any political and electoral responsibility to the people, can create problems about.

However what about a similar approach to those constitutional amendments that have been made to the Indian Constitution, esepecially those that "threaten one-ness of the country"?

Secondly, the plains "chauvinism" which practically in BD translates into the added Islamic dimension of land-grab, and destruction of pre-existing cultures - since the plains Bengali settlers in the hills are almost entirely Islamics [with a strong contingent of BNP support], and those they seek to replace or displace are mostly Hindu or Buddhists.

There has been a long standing core demand of ethnic separatism in the hill tracts. India has proved more flexible with such "demands". Can we see some future scope for accession to India?

[D Roy]

Off topic, obviously,

but watch tweetoor defending himself on St Stephen's news network if you can.

[brihaspati]

No! it is partly an internal party struggle between "old coterie" and "new coterie". But moreover, it is a sign that the younger, "outsider", images are sought to be controlled. Perhaps a sign that the party can no longer contain its own contradictions.

A bigger issue is however the amount of funds being processed through IPL. What are ths oucres of that money? Who is investing and why? Is there no possibility that D-Company is not inching in? Some of the names caught my attention. Will look up. Was this whole "Tweetoor" a result of D-Company interests being thwarted - some common promoter names appear in connection with IPL links about this now from "God's own country" and "WB" (KKR). Those two states share more than just the reds but also two bastions of the "greens".

In fact general public provided "financial" skimmings, like Bollywood, public entertainments, sportstainments like IPL are all good "money processors". There should be independent, non-governmental initiatives to look into who is getting involved. All that profit could be getting channeled into terrorist pockets if not monitored.

[RoyG]

Davos Annual Meeting 2010 - India's Future Agenda

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9WKnDzytMx4

[brihaspati]

On another note : I feel that cultural distinction and reviving the art forms of what we see as our tradition, is a subtle but long term rallying cry that has very much a strategic purpose. It is to reshape the identity and clean it of the layers that have been imposed from outside. I see millions and billions of bucks flowing into American pop-culture inspired supposed quick-fix entertainments like IPL, or Bollywood style Hungamas and Dhamakas. I see the entertainment, showbiz subtly being woven into sports with the allure of shapely dancers as part of a blurring of distinctions and our roots.

If we want the nation solidly behind national issues that clearly identifies threats to the nation - it needs to be clear about its identity. Any battle or war against the Jihadis, against the Maoists cannot succeed if our people fails to recognize them as not part of our culture. If they see commonalities with the people who advocate and propagate Jihadism or Maoism or EJism, the nation will always remain fatally hesitant.

MKG deliberately and openly chose his dress when he decided to move base and work for the anti-British struggle in India. Symbols are important and profoundly powerful. Especially when they are cultural symbols and icons. Thinsg like Bollywood and IPL are becoming mega-bucks processors which skim off billions from the people of India and as is evident goes to swell pockets of unknown or barely known capital holders. For all we know they could be investing dubious funds into the Indian economy and reaping profits that will ultimately source dubious enterprises. Could even be Jihadi or Maoist terror back on India.

Drying up these "entertainments" culturally is part of the overall struggle and battle for India's revival on its own terms [and not as defined or set by outside agenda]. We should be celebrating the folk art forms, the classical dance and music - and turn them into something that Indians feel proud to be seen about and in. Why is not the peasant community mud-wrestling not fun and entertainment for all peopl to watch? Why is not the plough racing in water covered fields with bullocks not fun enough? Why is not country boat racing not a national event? Why is not tribal and non-tribal spring or autumn fests a visual feast to be broadcast and organized as mega-events?

In many countries that eventually shook off the yoke of colonialism, reviavl of attentiona nd interest in traditional art and sports forms was part of the political and military struggle against the colonial powers. In India the process was botched by leadership that captured the space in between die-hard anti-British and grovelling Anglophiles. We see the confused continuation of that botch-up today. Hope people start seeing the obvious.

[brihaspati]

The brother of the Afghan President

To the inhabitants of Kandahar City, Ahmed Wali Karzai is a symbol of everything wrong with their home, an emblem of the murky nexus of warlords and criminal syndicates controlling southern Afghanistan's largest city.

In the words of some residents, the half-brother of Afghanistan's president is accused of being a "warlord, a terrorist", a narcotics trafficker, and a contract monopolist. Others won't even mention his name. "I can't tell you anything about this. I'm too scared. Someone might kill me," one resident said.

Pressure on President Hamid Karzai to sack his brother from the provincial council he chairs has led nowhere. Now, as military operations get under way in Kandahar's rural districts – the "cornerstone" of Nato's counterinsurgency campaign – Nato officials hope that they can co-opt Ahmed Wali and the handful of powerbrokers dominating the political landscape here.

"It's very difficult to untangle but what's really fuelling the insurgency is groups being disenfranchised, feeling oppressed by the institutions of state and criminal syndicates," said Mark Sedwill, Nato's top civilian official in Afghanistan. The message was repeated in more than a dozen interviews with Afghan and Nato officials, private citizens, analysts and local journalists. The biggest problem is not the Taliban, it's the gangster oligarchs in charge. Or as Sedwill put it: "I'm not sure whether I'm watching Godfather part 2 or Godfather part 3."

Forget the Corleones, Kandahar's political order revolves around two families: the Sherzai and the Karzai. An uneasy rivalry exists between them, symbolic of a wider tribal jostling between Sherzai's Barakzai tribe and the Popalzai group to which the Karzai family belong.

Both families are allegedly linked to the narco-mafia, criminal gangs and government corruption, although Nato has been unable to provide President Karzai with hard evidence of his brother's alleged involvement in illegal rackets. "Like any mafia organisation the guys who really matter are not the ones you have any evidence against," Mr Sedwill said. Mr Ahmed Wali Karzai denies accusations of corruption
[...]
The prevailing wisdom, now that efforts to have Ahmed Wali removed have failed, is that co-opting him and other Kandahari warlords is the best option. The hope is that the warlords will realise that "if the Americans aren't here I'm dead" and rein in their behaviour. But it's a risky strategy. All across Kandahar inhabitants repeat the complaint the West has empowered the Mafiosi at the expense of honest men. It was reaction against rule by warlords 16 years ago that swept the Taliban to power.

More and more indications as to why the Talebans "are ripe" for "grooming" to take over. But if Karzai os not physically removed from the scene - the US plan may not progress. Another assassination in the air? What do BRFItes think will the scenario be if Karzai is assassinated between now and 2011?

[brihaspati]

US probably has decided that it cannot push POGWI anymore on taking out North Waziristan - the key bastion of POGWI connected Talebs. http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/co ... 02614.html

U.S. officials have expressed frustration about Pakistan's reluctance. But a rare visit to the restricted region by two Washington Post reporters offered a fresh vantage point into Pakistani thinking, and it suggested that the two sides are trying to find common ground in addressing what Washington sees as the epicenter of the terrorist threat.

"There has to be a balance between foreign requirements and the local environment," said Maj. Gen. Athar Abbas, a Pakistani military spokesman. "I think what the Americans have come to understand is that when [their] options are not working, maybe it is time to try another way."

Pakistani officials said it was inconceivable that any more troops would be pulled away from their eastern defenses against rival India, at a time when nearly a third of Pakistan's half-million-strong army is deployed against insurgents in and around the region, known as the Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA). An offensive in North Waziristan, the Pakistani officials said, would risk the gains so recently won in the south, because it would require pulling troops from that region.

They also said that they think it would be possible to enlist the Waziri tribes of the north in the fight against insurgents but that any attempt to rush them would backfire.

U.S. officials continue to think that Pakistan's reluctance stems largely from its belief that the Afghan Taliban, which the army does not see as a threat to Pakistan, could be useful in influencing future events in Afghanistan. But after months of publicly questioning Pakistan's motives, the Obama administration appears to have decided to try a different tack, voicing new appreciation for Pakistan's military accomplishments in South Waziristan and other operations last year, including in the Swat Valley.

"We need to give them credit," a senior U.S. official said of the Pakistanis, and trust that they understand the "culture, history and geography" of North Waziristan better than Washington does.

[brihaspati]

The pattern is quitre clear : they are activating their destabilization along a well defined "boundary" and "border". They went from Mumbai-2008 to Jihadi violence in J&K, to Red violence in WB, and Ej+Maoist violence in Orissa to the recent massacre in the MP+Telengana region to an attempted shake-up in Bangalore. The two weak points in this encirclement campaign to isolate the Gangetic -Punjab heartland is Karnataka and Guajarat - with a strong presence at the state givernment level of a political ideology which is the only ideologically-committed opposition to both Jihadism and Maoism (as also EJism).

I think they are following a strategy of "make noise in the East while attack in the West". So I would guess there are planned attacks up the Gangetic Valley, in UP and Punjab/Upper India region next. Their essential target is to isolate a continuous strecth of the Indo-Gangetic plains which can potentially serve as the base for a future separate "state" most likely based on "faith".

But there will be no large-scale violence in the large gatherings of Sunni Muslims in India on religious occasions. In particular the Deobandi stronghold in UP will not be subject tos uch attacks. If it ever happens, it will be on a much smaller scale compare dto the heterogeneous gatherings that have so far been targeted. Moreover it will happen only after elaborate plans have been worked out to implicate "right wing" of the majority community.

Since such things cannot take place repeatedly without some degree of the security framework being compromised, I do not think these attacks and basically a psychological warfare of "terror" will cease in the immediate future. It can even escalate.

[Prem]

Since such things cannot take place repeatedly without some degree of the security framework being compromised, I do not think these attacks and basically a psychological warfare of "terror" will cease in the immediate future. It can even escalate.

So far the major security institutions are holding the fort. May be not great but at least adequate till now. The day security forces are compromised with the religion based quota system , IMHO, India as we know will be on downward sprial to civil war . It is very important that PS crowd , Khalidi kind, Pinko , leftist to be kept away at far far distance from influencing the structure of security institutions. These are real snakes in the grass. The above security threat scenario in Bsir's post can be handled easily by recruiting local sons of soil to protect their land. It wont be possible for them if these sons have to watch their back while fighting to survive and sustain their way of life. The escalation in attacks can also serve to wake Indians up and as they say the problem can be oppertunity also.

[brihaspati]

Three quick thought experiments : if they happen within the next 1-2 years, how will they affect India?

(1) Drug-war in Mexico leading to collapse of gov, coupled with peasant and urban poor uprisings - placing a radical, Leftist transitional gov. This gov gets direct and indirect support from the majority of Latin American countries.

(2) Karzai or his brother, or both get assassinated.

(3) There are widespread peasant uprisings combining with a section of PLA and anti-government dissidents and ex-Maoist elite. The current regime is overthrown.

Do put down what you think!

[brihaspati]

http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/w ... 094233.ece

April 11, 2010
Poison swirls around Hamid Karzai and Barack Obama
The Afghan president fears an apparent media campaign to discredit him is a prelude to America abandoning his country

From the start Karzai has not known what to make of Obama but he believes the US president did not want him to win re-election last August. He reacted to a recent White House snub by inviting to Kabul President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad of Iran, who gave a fiery anti-American speech.


Unlike President George W Bush, who called Karzai his buddy and held monthly video conferences with him, Obama has distanced himself. He made his first visit to Kabul as president last week, flying for 26 hours to give Karzai a 25-minute lecture on corruption. The Karzai family has now hit back, accusing US officials of launching a smear campaign as a prelude to abandoning the country again. “There’s a very bad policy developing towards Afghanistan,” said the president’s brother Mahmoud Karzai, a businessman who lives in Kabul. “They want to discredit the Afghan government in the eyes of the US public. I hope it’s not the beginning of an exit strategy. If it is, God help us, it will be very bad — don’t they remember what happened when they did this before in the Eighties?”

Mahmoud believes the tension goes back to before last summer’s elections. “There was a clear push by a group of US politicians to really hurt him.”He particularly blames Galbraith, who was then the deputy UN representative, and Richard Holbrooke, the US special envoy for Afghanistan and Pakistan. “They made statements which were really outrageous,” he said. “On the second day of counting, before the results were even known, they said it would go to a second round. “Ever since there has been a push to undermine the Afghan government. I don’t understand. I see right now the Taliban at the fence. If we continue the good work, the Taliban will be defeated, but if we continue in this way they will not.”

He was incensed by Galbraith’s suggestion that the president was on drugs. “My brother has never smoked a cigarette in his life,” he said. “He doesn’t drink or gamble. For people to make such a ridiculous attack is outrageous. “We worry that taking sides with certain countries might be the agenda,” Mahmoud added. “Mr Holbrooke is very close to Pakistan.”

The biggest sticking point is Ahmed Wali, who runs the family interests in Kandahar and is believed to be a drug dealer. US officials have reportedly said he must be removed before a battle for control of the province.
“They say he is a drug dealer but we’ve never been shown any evidence,” Mahmoud said. “The idea that Ahmed Wali should be removed is generated by those who want to hand over Kandahar to the Taliban.”

As for the Afghan president’s reported threat to join the Taliban if the West kept attacking him, Mahmoud said: “It’s impossible. The Taliban would not allow him.” It is often forgotten that Karzai was once the Taliban’s chief fundraiser.

It is basically getting to a point where, Karzai, Obama, the Pashtun middle-roaders, Talebs, Pakis and the USA - all become obstacles to each other. Typicllay in such jostling the weakest person is allowed to survive in the top hotseat because all the other hawks distrust each more. But this allowance only continues until one of the hawks decide that he has grown strong enough to take power for himself and "weakest" link is chopped up quickly. It is only a matter of time before Karzai brothers get removed. One or both of them - perhaps even eliminated.

Germans bemoan poor kit

German troops are complaining that they are unable to fight in Afghanistan because of poor training and a lack of proper equipment, writes Bojan Pancevski.
After the deaths of three German soldiers and five Afghan police officers killed by friendly fire last weekend, officers have blamed a shortage of weapons, ammunition, vehicles and helicopters for low morale.

Their spotter drones, needed for surveillance, could not take off in the heat. The new NH90 multi-role helicopters have proved “inappropriate”, as they lack space for machineguns.
Unlike most other Nato troops, the Germans are flying large quantities of alcohol to their Afghan bases. Annual shipments have reached 1.8m pints of beer and 70,000 litres of wine, according to defence ministry figures.

Complaints about equipment and increased liquor composition both indicate the abdication of the will to fight. The US led military mission is losing its steam, and it will continue to do so even if additional forces turn up.

[Neshant]

they probably feel its a waste of their life to engage in a fight when eventually all of NATO including the US is going to cut & run from Afghanistan.

no reason to risk injury or death fighting a war where the only outcome is going to be withdrawl.

[brihaspati]

It is quite possible that if China lands up with serious internal dissension [peasant uprisings, Neo-Maoist vs centrists in the CPC, PLA splits over civilian corruption, etc..] then they can try to use "Han nationalism" to raise a bogey of external "threat" to avoid or delay the internal crisis.

India will obviously appear to be the most convenient scapegoat. There are apparent promoses of better military success, because a alot of internal "conflicts" within India have been fomented by China and the Islamists with appropriate western inputs in the past.

But to carry this out successfully, China will need an excuse. So I would start looking for signs of internal trouble in the "eastern" parts of India, including a potential reactivation of the NE movements and thinsg coming from within BD, or a renewed insurgency in the Assam Valley.

[brihaspati]

It is getting tricky for PRC - but not entirely impossible. They have a handle in Myanmar [in spite of recent ethnic conflicts at the border] and can access ports there. They have a handle in BD, and can gain Chittagong port. However, the most likely tactic will be to activate Assam Valley again. But they will activate two farthest fronts at the same time - so I would expect both the Ladakh and LOC on the north and Assam-AP-Mizoram, Meghalaya sector to be activated in low-intensity-warfare again before China moves forces.

[Karna_A]

a massive invasion across the himalayas is foolish. it will waste resources, time, and lives. but if China does become desperate enough to try that, the Northeastern part of India will be in jeopardy. that part is connected to India via a very narrow strip of land (compared to the surrounding region and the millions of people involved). also, if PRC really becomes that desperate, it will try Economics as a weapon first. the Brahmaputra starts in Tibet i believe and then flows into NE India.

Not any more. MMS has done one thing really well that is trying to cultivate BD.
Chittagong port has opened up for Indian traffic and one Ship can carry as much supplies as 150 trains passing through the chickens neck.

[Brad Goodman]

India will obviously appear to be the most convenient scapegoat. There are apparent promoses of better military success, because a alot of internal "conflicts" within India have been fomented by China and the Islamists with appropriate western inputs in the past.

If you intent is to pick a fight to distract attention. Why would you pick the biggest bully in the class and fight him? For China the only country in neighbourhood that has the muscle and resources to put up a fight is India. Plus the border is not at all friendly to put up fight using heavy equipments. So I think if Chinese ever decide to show a quick Han victory they will pick some small target that they can bully into submission.

[RamaY]

India will obviously appear to be the most convenient scapegoat. There are apparent promoses of better military success, because a alot of internal "conflicts" within India have been fomented by China and the Islamists with appropriate western inputs in the past.

If you intent is to pick a fight to distract attention. Why would you pick the biggest bully in the class and fight him? For China the only country in neighbourhood that has the muscle and resources to put up a fight is India. Plus the border is not at all friendly to put up fight using heavy equipments. So I think if Chinese ever decide to show a quick Han victory they will pick some small target that they can bully into submission.

Because if you can push an unbalanced and unsure bully of the class to a corner, you are assured of acceptance. The problem is that the bully in the class (your metaphor) is not a bully to start with.

[brihaspati]

The crucial factor that can do in any Chinese regime is a military reversal. So China has to carefully think out that any campaign it mounts does not backfire. Its best possible cover is to start a low-intensity proxy war in the eastern part of India. If things work out it can try to give recognition to independent "states" and help them in the latter part of the conflict to gain territory - like they have done in POK.

[brihaspati]

What is needed is a comprehensive plan to tackle communist violence not just as a phenomenon within India, but as one of the ideology based movements that are used as pawns ina n international game of land-grab and overthrowing of existing cultures in a neo-imperialist framework. Maoists or Jihadists are both tools in the hands of neo-imperialists. As such the proiblem has to be solved on cross border and multi-nation scale.

Can India play the role of USA in underming Maoism in Asia - what USA did for Russian style communism?

Here are a few indicators of future on our hinterland: In Nepal for example the Maoists are back at it agin, perhaps even and indication of PRC frustration,
http://southasiarev.wordpress.com/2010/ ... -a-revolt/

Is it possible to promulgate a new constitution under this government?

This government has no legitimacy. It has been a complete failure and is incapable of achieving anything meaningful. If this government continues, there is no alternative to a revolt. It is impossible to draft a constitution under this government.

To this attitude, we have on the other side, http://southasiarev.wordpress.com/2010/ ... evolution/

Army will come out of barracks if there’s bloodshed after May 28: Katawal

Friday, 09 April 2010

Former Nepal Army (NA) chief Rookmangud Katawal has said the army will not remain silent if there is bloodshed and turmoil in the country because of the Constituent Assembly failing to promulgate the new constitution within the May 28 deadline.

Speaking to the Reporters Club members at his residence in Khumaltar, Lalitpur, Friday morning, the controversial former army chief said democratic forces have become weaker after the demise of former Prime Minister Girija Prasad Koirala.

Katawal, who is allegedly close to the pro-monarchist camp, said issues such as secularism, monarchy and federalism must be decided through referendum. He said the people should be given the right to speak directly on these grave national issues if parties are committed to democratic culture and people’s sovereignty.

He further said the environment of trust could be built only when the arms carried by other than state’s forces are handed over to the state. He mentioned Nepal Army will work together with Nepali people in safeguarding national sovereignty and integrity.

Few days ago, Maoist chairman Pushpa Kamal Dahal had called on NA leadership to join hand with his party to safeguard national sovereignty and integrity.

[D Roy]

The only "invasion" China will mount on India is of substandard power equipment, low priced steel and road contractors..

and seriously let's understand one thing - there are over 940 million hindus in India alone and not 80 crores or ~800 million as some are trying to posit it as. that is a 2001 census figure.

And I am being ball park, because if ~80 per cent of India is Hindu and India's population is now hovering around the 1 .2 billion mark you can do the math...

finally, all those BDs who are "emigrating" to India are going to end up aspiring for the dual religious citizenship ( wear skull cap while doing chath puja) that so characterizes the muslim of eastern india. I won't even be surprised if in the years to come we start seeing more and more "composite" names.

[D Roy]

The Chinese despite all the bullshit are still our brothers.

The very fact that "articles" are being written in their state sponsored media rather than any real "action" shows the real strength of India.

Of course India must keep building up its military posture along the border. If not anything but in remembrance of Robert Frost and his "good fences make good..."

[brihaspati]

In any country there is always a spectrum of political position with regards to foreign identities. What swings national action is however the most loud or most influential minority elite. The so-called "cultural -hegemony". In most countries, the "commons" are not that hostile to other created/constructed foreign identities if the elite or influential opinion mobilizers had not painted the identity as evil for generations before.

Having said that, humans are opportunists as regard creation of identity of the other - and brothers or not - any foreign identity will be eagerly believed to be evil+devil if it pays to do so.

Those who are inclined to believe in a general brotherly feeling from China, could be making any or both of the common mistakes about "foreign identities". First they could be modelling modern or current Chinese public opinion based on past or historical Indian or Chinese narratives of friendly exchanges or contacts. Second they could also be modelling the Chinese public as themselves or Indian concepts of "world-brotherliness".

Many common Chinese perhaps do not have a stake in the CPC or PLA paranoia and hatred of India, but CPC controls all flow of information into the public domain and it has all the means of carefully constructing India and Indians in the light that suits their mobilization agenda.

We should keep in mind this fact. Coinstructing friends where we have dubious interaction with them or have little real opportunity of projecting ourselves directly into Chinese eyes or ears can be potentially fatal.

There are clear issues of conflict of interest between India and China which when push comes to shove, is more likely to mobilize the common Chinese in favour of Han nationalism - because of the long preparation CPC has had in doing so.

[jambudvipa]

The blinkered Indian world view about foreign countries especially China,I suspect comes from the dubious "vasudiave kutmbakam" mentality (IF member Bhartendu has an excelelt article on this on his blog).We should not be in any doubt that when the PLA mobilises agaisnt India,they will have their countrymen solidly behind them,notwithstanding their internal fissures.Xenophobic national rhtetoric is a hallmark of all chinas ruling dynasties who seek to maintain their legitamacy by natiionalist posturing.This has instinctively conditioned the common chinese person to react aggressivly to percieved external enemies.
And there should not be any doubt that PRC will be willing to sacrifice n number of its troops to browbeat India.PLA is not invincible and neither infallible but is not short of cannon fodder.We must be mentally prepared for a brutal war in the Himalayas.

[D Roy]

And when the IA mobilizes our countrymen will also be solidly behind them . Note: I don't count a few pseudo elite running sold out channels or writing in sold out newspapers as countrymen.

In any case China policy is not driven by members of some putative superstructure, but since 1962 has very much been part of what the military perception is at any point of time.

When I say the Chinese are our brothers - it encapsulates a lot more than any specific narrative handed down to us from the Vedas or Hegel. ( hate to use these two in the same breath.)


Both India and China took very serious note of Gulf war I and the balkans. They both knew that the traditional Asian million man military model had to be reoriented. and they gave breathing space to each other through the "peace and tranquility etc etc " during the nineties.

Now some people talk about tactical nukes in other threads. I betcha the Chinese have the same plan in the face of a "war inside tibet". To prevent it from coming to that and also spawning some public works led investment the chinese started building up in Tibet.

They know that they have a serious handicap being on a plateau and are seeking to overcome it.

The buildup in some ways also means that they don't want to do a permanent deployment , but if push comes to shove they can scale up in tibet quickly.

let us also not forget that this buildup in Tibet coincides with American military presence in the CAR.

So what we need to do, is match these developments and that would be enough to ensure that the chinese do not suddenly start looking beyond consolidating Tibet and reviewing the initial defensive impetus which led them to construct in Tibet.
Also we must keep developing our navy because that is the ultimate insurance against any Chinese un-brotherly behaviour.
The fact is they are our brothers. and brothers do fight sometimes. but the verse is very different.

[svinayak]

The blinkered Indian world view about foreign countries especially China,I suspect comes from the dubious "vasudiave kutmbakam" mentality (IF member Bhartendu has an excelelt article on this on his blog).

Bharatiya view of China in the modern times has not been expressed in the media for people to know. What is the Indian media giving any information about China for the last 40 years to Indians.

[svinayak]

^^But Acharya the resurgence of Maoists in China will make khan, EU & Ruskies align with India there will be no shortage of supplies for war + the economic benefits of filling up the supplier role vacated by China.

DO not count on any country to align with India against China. They have invested too much in their relationship with China.

[RamaY]

^ well said Acharyaji.

Like others said in this thread earlier, Indian civilization is the only remaining pre-revealed-religion societies. India is alone in this Dharmic fight.

[brihaspati]

"Destiny shifts and waves like a moving shadow in the sands of time/what is impossible today becomes the only natural outcome tomorrow". In spite of investments, people would still be interested in the destruction of the power of Communist China - if only it could be assured as an outcome. The thing is to establish that perception.

[Prem]

^ well said Acharyaji.

Like others said in this thread earlier, Indian civilization is the only remaining pre-revealed-religion societies. India is alone in this Dharmic fight.

This is what makes it so interesting and worth fighting even though many of our own betray and backstab as Swami Vivekananda reminded us , becoming enemy one more .

[Pranav]

"In spite of investments, people would still be interested in the destruction of the power of Communist China - if only it could be assured as an outcome. The thing is to establish that perception.

China is far more free from western plutocrats than the MMS-Sonia-Rahul group.

In some respects, it is China that is saving the common Indian from the depredations of our political elites, who readily bend under western pressure. For example, had it not been for China, MMS would have surely surrendered to the global warming fraud in Copenhagen.

Obviously, China does what it does for its own interests, but the Indian commoner is an unintended beneficiary sometimes.

[brihaspati]

The model of a China balancing out the power of the "west" follows on from the supposed bipolar one of the Cold War. One of the great problems with this model now, having substituted USSR with China - is that the main funding source [materially as well as economically] behind the west - the USA - had deliberately alligned with Mao as part of so-called real-politik to isolate USSR. And the foundation of China's increasing stake in the global trade has only followed through after USA dumped Taiwan and began to go soft on China.

A lot of the posturings by the imperialistic version of CPC or PLA would not have been possible if somewhere behind it all, USA's legendary shortsightedness and short-term solution horizon in international politics did not work full throttle.

It is still not a bi-polar world. China has opposed USA only on one front openly - that too as an ally of Russia, and that is on attempts to "modify" Iran. But even this is quite murky business. When the Iranians had been holding US embassy staff hostages, somehow all attempts by the USA to rescue them went wrong under Carter - while there was spectacular success immediatley afterwards under Reagan. But behind all that there was this small and insignificant business of an Iran-Contra deal to sponsor "counter-revolution" in Nicaragua.

So the drama over Iran could have hidden depths that need to be explored. China could still be playing along a curve determined in close collaboration with the USA over Iran. Iran appears to be the proverbial necessary foreign devil to focus energy and attention on while gradually de-emphasizing previous engagements. Its a slow but subtle dance to keep stubborn opposite positions within domestic American political opinion - simultaneously happy. To ease out Iraq, AFG focus was necessary. When the withdrawal from AFG is being worked out, you need an alternative focus - that goes to Iran.

[brihaspati]

There are people from the US side who have expressed their suspicion that it was a coordinated effort by jingos from US side to scuttle Carter and bring Reagan in. Carter was hesitant on moving aginst the reds in Nicaragua, while Reagan played the Hawk.

[Nair]

The only "invasion" China will mount on India is of substandard power equipment, low priced steel and road contractors..

and seriously let's understand one thing - there are over 940 million hindus in India alone and not 80 crores or ~800 million as some are trying to posit it as. that is a 2001 census figure.

And I am being ball park, because if ~80 per cent of India is Hindu and India's population is now hovering around the 1 .2 billion mark you can do the math...

finally, all those BDs who are "emigrating" to India are going to end up aspiring for the dual religious citizenship ( wear skull cap while doing chath puja) that so characterizes the muslim of eastern india. I won't even be surprised if in the years to come we start seeing more and more "composite" names.

Well said...if this is the state of alarm about the nation here..think about the panic America should be in. The white population will go below 50% in a matter of years with Hispanics on their way to become the new majority.

Remember a lot of the BD's emigrating (which I believe is much less now with the fence and the BSF shooting the head of anyone they see) were never considered true Muslims by their fellow citizens in the west. In that they were too influenced by the composite culture of Hinduism and islam..unlike their pure bred Arab decendents in West Paksitan.