The fact is, what Indian armed forces have done (striking directly at what WE determine to be terrorist infrastructure, and that too deep within Pakistan proper) establishes a 'new normal'. The fact that we accomplished this without a single manned aircraft or serviceman lost, makes it obvious that we can enforce this 'new normal' at any time we want, at little cost or risk to ourselves-- honestly, at this point we might as well be looking at a Saddam vs. USA type of power differential.
Balakot could not establish this 'new normal' *
in the eyes of the whole world plus the Pakistani awam*, because it happened at a remote location, and with no video evidence, so the TSPA coverup was easy. Even then, it certainly sent the intended message to TSPA/ISI (no major terrorist attack for 5+ years afterwards in J&K, even after the Article 35A/370 abrogation).
But now it's out there. Pakistan is exposed as not being able to stop India from retaliating (at no cost in lives or equipment) against an ISI-sponsored terrorist attack. Everyone can see it. Moreover, the TSPA seems hell-bent on exposing itself even further as being in bed with terrorists-- it is right now sending uniformed personnel to participate in the public funerals of Tanzeem swine. Thanks for providing us with even more propaganda photos and footage, Pakis.
TSPA cannot afford this 'new normal' to become the *broadly accepted perception* among either the international community or its own people.
International community-- because the ONLY value of Pakistan to ANYBODY these days is as a perceived "counter to India", and what value is there in a "counter" which gets slapped and just stands there helplessly? What is their utility even to Beijing now? As a demonstrator of the uselessness of JF-17 Bandar and HQ air defenses?
Own people-- for obvious reasons. TSPA's entire rationale for seizing control of the government (and economy) is that "we will fight jihad on your behalf and defend you from any hostile kafir acts". They have now shown that they cannot deliver on that one sole promise on the bass of which they claim "Sultan" status in Pakistan's Kabila political system.
Game theory states that TSPA/ISI is now in an untenable position. If they do nothing, and meanwhile if India continues pressuring all the stress points of Pakistan (economy/finance, social divisions, regional freedom movements, diplomatic status, and most importantly water)... the lamp post is inevitable. Not just about "H&D" anymore, it's become about survival for them.
What do I expect? I think they will not strike conventionally. They will use terrorism, which is the only thing they actually have expertise in.
I anticipate:
1) Massive riot provocations designed to mobilize radical sections of the Peaceful population in India. They will try to replicate the Palestinian-jihad type 4th generation warfare on our streets, thus portraying India across the world as incapable of replacing China as a reliable trade partner or manufacturing supply centre.
Expect much more coordination of ISI and China with Far Left elements within India (environmental, feminist, regionalist, etc)... as well as Indian political parties (you know who I mean)... in a sustained and all-out effort to sabotage India's plans for a quantum leap in economic advancement.
2)
FOR NRIS: Watch out. Especially if you live in places with huge Paki populations (Australia, Canada, Germany, Norway, but ESPECIALLY UK). Remember the Leicester Civic Terrorism from a couple of years ago. This model will be used to target Indian, especially Hindu, migrants and residents physically, socially, economically, and through information warfare. The aim will be to terrorize NRIs into pressuring the Indian government to wind down its strategy against Pakistan. Of course, it will not work. But I am 100% sure the Pakis will try-- attacking the vulnerable and defenseless is second nature to them, after all.
