Pratyush wrote:
So the objective is to demonise the BJP and present itself as an alternative.
to do that you gotta have NEWS bytes at least one breaking NEWS item every alternate days
or you gotta have moolah to spend, AAP do not moolah so no have NEWS bytes, look at the way
NaMo is being demonised talked about dissed and cussed and all that get him free NEWS bytes
and no, it is not 2000 tis 2013 now people recheck NEWS through their "Hand phone" network
it makes them look important to have something to talk on the phonuwa to boot, this election
is all about NaMo loike the time post IG assassination when RG won 300+ seats these AAP SAAP SAPA BSP
wagera are just moongphali for time pass.(at least in Cow belt NaMo wave is blowing at storm velocity)
BHOPAL: He was the undisputed and absolute authority in Madhya Pradesh leading the erstwhile Congress government ten years ago. And yet on Wednesday evening, the Congress closed its doors on AICC general secretary and former chief minister Digvijaya Singh denying him entry into a press conference.
For nearly 20 minutes, Digvijaya Singh and his supporters stood outside the doors of the state PCC conference hall banging on the wooden panels and requesting entry even as Union minister of state Jyotiraditya Scindia was talking to the media. Scindia has been appointed the party's state election campaign committee chairman earlier this week while Digvijaya Singh has been left-out of the 22-member election committee panel.
Scindia continued to address the media flanked by AICC general secretary in charge of state party affairs Mohan Prakash, senior leader Sanjay Nirupam, PCC president Kantilal Bhuria and leader of opposition Ajay Singh, while Digvijaya Singh's men made desperate calls from their mobile phones asking Congress workers inside to open the door and make way for his access.
As Digvijaya Singh kept waiting outside, Scindia was talking the press claiming there was no factional rivalry within the party. He claimed leaders like Digvijaya Singh, Union minister Kamal Nath other leaders like Suresh Pachauri and the state top-brass were all strung together in a single garland of unity. Meanwhile the banging on the door continued and Scindia asked Congress workers not to let in whoever was knocking. Senior Congress leader Sanjay Nirupam also instructed that admittance into the hall is not permitted.
Congress workers were seen guarding the door from inside lest the Singh and his supporters managed to unlock the gate. When the doors were not opened, Digvijaya Singh walked around the Congress office compound to gain entry through a back door. But that door was also jammed and a miffed Digvijaya Singh turned to the elevator so he could wait for the rest of the party leaders to join him for an election meeting.
But half-way up the second floor, the elevator stopped working. An infuriated and irate Digvijaya Singh had had enough and told his supporters to turn around and walk-out of the state Congress office. Hurt and humiliated, he climbed into his SUV and left the Congress office with his supporters following in a cavalcade.
Recently with approaching assembly elections, Digvijaya Singh is getting unfair treatment at the hands of party men and specially a much younger Jyotiraditya Scindia who is being portrayed as the Congress' chief minister probable. Earlier this month, the Scindia faction organized a rally in Morena where Digvijaya Singh was kept waiting for more than two hours by the Union minister of state. A much-harassed Digvijaya sat on the dais in Morena sweating profusely and waiting for Scindia's arrival on the stage. The programme scheduled to start at 1pm finally saw Jyotiraditya Scindia arrive at 3:15pm
he was a useful potty mouth for the INC in his day.
say something stupid about Namo and have the presstitutes repeat it for a day, if it flies well and good
if it didnt fly, have someone else say it was his individual view only and INC has distanced itself from it.
repeat N times.
perhaps the INC has realized this joker is just a vote creating machine for Namo....all he did was drive even INC supporters into the side of Namo with his big mouth.
Bad news for dharmics no? Diggy would've been such a good PR catalyst for NaMo.
I think that the 'can do it' fiasco where Modi's media management team owned him badly on twitter, did the trick and Khangress Sultanate's Begum Sahiba ordered him to go for Haj.
In a way, repeat of Bairam Khan retirement .. onlee
if he remians a dog-gy singh. he will remiain loyal to teflon family.
if he mutates he can damage teflon family.
at this age will he remian a dog and lie low or rebel and scr8w teflon family bioth in MP and at the center.
Hope he also does a low purush antics.
will be fun.
Now that Baba has to come out of the Embryo and claim the Gaddi, existence of a Guru-Chela relationship is damaging right?
Dig was famed by the Media as the Babysitter of our Baba.
Now our munna wants to show that he is done crawling and has started walking just in time .. phinally.
Oh the tears of joy in the eyes of common Indian bees !! New version of default program has come
After beheading of Hemu, his skull was sent to Kabul to display outside the 'Delhi Darwaza'.[citation needed] His torso was sent to Delhi and hanged outside Purana Quila on a 'gibbet' to terrorise Hindus. Hemu's wife escaped from Purana Quila taking the booty along with and remained untraceble. A genocide of Hindu civilians was ordered by Bairam Khan of which continued for many years.[4] Hemu's relatives and close Afghan supporters were caught and many of them beheaded.[5] Minaretts were made of the beheaded skulls at different places. Hemu's 82 years father who had escaped to Alwar was traced after 6 months and was beheaded for refusing to convert to Islam.[4]
===
Bairam Khan was a Shia muslim and was disliked by the Sunni Turkic nobles.[4] Bairam was dismissed by Akbar's in 1560. He subsequently chose to leave India to perform the hajj pilgrimage in Mecca.[5]
While travelling through Gujarat,[6] he was killed by Hazi Khan Mewati of Alwar, who was the General and close confidant of Hindu Kings of North India Hemu, and was staying at Patan after Akbar's forces captured Alwar Sarkar in 1559. One day when Bairam Khan was at Sahstraling Talav, a religious site, he was recognised by Lohani Pashtun an associate of Hazi Khan Mewati, whose father had been killed in Second Battle of Panipat (1556), five years ago, which was led by Bairam Khan. Hazi Khan attacked and killed Bairam Khan for the atrocities he had committed after the Second Battle of Panipat. Bairam Khan died on 31 January 1561. However, his son and wife were allowed to go free and sent to north India. Bairam Khan's wife, who was also the cousin of Akbar, married Akbar after Bairam Khan's death and later on Bairam's son, Abdul Rahim Khan-i-khana, got an important assignment in Akbar's administration and was one of the 'Nau-rattans' (Nine Gems) of Akbar.
krisna wrote:if he remians a dog-gy singh. he will remiain loyal to teflon family.
if he mutates he can damage teflon family.
at this age will he remian a dog and lie low or rebel and scr8w teflon family bioth in MP and at the center.
Hope he also does a low purush antics.
will be fun.
No such chances in italian mafia ruled congress anymore. Opus Dei killers are roaming around, anybody rebelling like jitendra prasad OR potential rebels like m scindia - r pilot are taken out with extreme prejudice.
So he can just do pillow beating in the privacy of his home and vent his frustration and anger. While waiting for raul or sonia giving him a pat when they come across him.
He will lick his wounds for some time but skulk back in a while. Maybe get to make the tea and arrange the newspapers in the party office , plus daily anti namo rant to the ndtv outdoor crew.
Folks - I just threw together an awk script to calculate the different votes for the BJP and KJP in the different constituencies in Karnataka and added some of my knowledge to those numbers. I am posting my analysis here (mods - if this is a violation of the policy, please lemme know and I will remove it).
The following analysis is based on the performance of the various parties in the Assembly elections. I am assuming the return of Yediyurappa and that the votes of the KJP and BJP add up. I have ignored all Modi effects.
Karnataka has traditionally voted for the party that has just won the Assembly elections in the Lok Sabha. Anti-incumbency tends to begin about 2-3 years after being elected. Given that we have just had a nice monsoon, I would not consider any seat where the BJP-KJP has more than 50K votes more than the Congress to be safe for the BJP. I would consider any seat where BJP has >50K votes less than Congress lost, unless there are other mitigating factors. Hard fights are those between -50K and +50K votes.
Chikodi – a few thousand votes lead for BJP. Possible to win here. JD(S) a distant third.
Belgaum – about 50K votes lead for BJP. Traditional BJP stronghold. Should not lose this. JD(S) not in picture
Bagalkot – About 50K votes deficit for BJP. Has been winning here for the last 3 elections, so may have accumulated considerable anti-incumbency. Not easy to win here, even with Yeddy. JD(S) irrelevant.
Bijapur – About 75K votes lower than Congress. JD(S) has surprisingly put up a very strong fight in many constituencies in this traditional BJP stronghold. Not easy to win this, even with Yeddy.
Gulbarga – About 25K votes higher than Congress. However, Gulbarga has always been a strong Congress fortress and is the home of Mallikarjun Kharge (not sure if this dinosaur will contest again). Nevertheless, while arithmetic favours BJP, chemistry favours Congress. Possible to win, but not at all easy. JD(S) of limited relevance.
Raichur – More than 100K lower than Congress. Pushed to irrelevancy in several constituencies (but traditionally, this constituency always featured a Cong-JD battle). JD(S) very strong and relevant. Will find this very hard to win.
Bidar – About 100K higher than Congress, but this is because there were powerful independents in the Assembly elections. JD(S) is strong and relevant. Also, this is the home turf of another Congress heavyweight, Dharam Singh (not sure if this Jurassic period guy can/will still contest). BJP may be able to win, but will have to sweat it out. But, in the past, this was a BJP stronghold under Ramachandra Veerappa, so BJP may win this. Possible, but not easy.
Koppal – Around 60K votes below Congress. JD(S) has mediocre strength. Possible to win, but really hard.
Bellary – About 120K below Congress. BJP has been more or less wiped out here by the revolt of Sreeramulu and the Reddy brothers. Even JD(S) has done better here, in many places. Yeddy or no Yeddy, without the Reddy brothers and Sreeramulu, will require a miracle from heaven to win.
Haveri – BJP about 75K below Congress. Sreeramulu has done considerable damage here too, to the BJP. JD(S) irrelevant here. Even with Yeddy back, BJP will find the going rather tough.
Dharwad – About 70K above Congress. With Yeddy back, this should be a safe seat for BJP. JD(S) a distant third. Even without KJP, BJP is on par with Congress here, and this seat is a traditional BJP stronghold. Probably going to win here.
Uttar Kannada – Votes of Congress and BJP-KJP almost at par. JD(S) has done extremely well here, mostly because of BJP defectors. Even BJP strongmen like Vishweshwara Hegde Kageri were pressed hard to win. This seat is not going to be easy to win. A lot will depend on how the JD(S) voters will vote in the coming elections.
Davanagere – BJP-KJP together about 100K votes below the Congress. JD(S) has turned in a decent performance. This seat is going to be very hard to win. BJP-KJP have fallen too far (and considering that this was once a BJP stronghold, it is even worse). Without Yeddy, BJP will be lucky to get back deposit.
Shimoga – BJP-KJP has a combined total of about 30K more than Congress. This is Yeddy's home turf, so he may just eke out a win. Not easy to win this, but not impossible.
Udupi-Chikmaglur – Congress-BJP votes almost at par. JD(S) only of limited relevance. BJP will have to work very hard to win this.
Hassan – BJP is not in the picture. JD(S) vs Congress.
Dakshina Kannada – BJP is about 80K votes below Congress. Yeddy not in picture here. This is the cruellest blow to the BJP, and shows just how far they have fallen in Karnataka. As an example, Sadananda Gowda (he did not contest personally, but he canvassed personally for the BJP candidate) could not retain his own constituency (Puttur) and lost it to his bete noire, Akka Shakuntala Shetty. Unless there is a polarisation due to Modi, which results in Hindus voting en-masse for the BJP, it is going to lose this (and shame on BJP for losing this!).
Chitradurga – BJP is in third place behind JD(S), about 200K votes below Congress. Has been utterly wiped out of huge regions (along with KJP) in this constituency. Unless the people vote for the candidate in Lok Sabha, BJP will likely lose deposit.
Tumkur – BJP vote about 100K more than Congress, but almost on par with JD(S). The results of the Assembly constituencies suggest that the fights were between individuals, rather than about parties. With Yeddy back, BJP may just hang on to this. Will require very hard work and balance will be on a knife edge. Will feature a triangular fight between BJP, Cong and JD(S).
Mandya – BJP does not enter the picture. JD(S) vs Congress.
Mysore – BJP about 160K behind Congress. Constituency will feature a triangular contest with JD(S) being very powerful in the rural segments (excluding Coorg). BJP will need a miracle from heaven to win.
Chamarajanagara – BJP is about 125K votes behind Congress, and on par with JD(S). Needs a miracle from heaven to win here. Besides, this seat has never elected a BJP candidate ever before. Always featured a Congress vs JD(S) contest.
Bangalore Rural – For most part, BJP not in picture. Fight between Cong and JD(S).
Bangalore North – BJP is behind Congress by about 150K votes here. This should have been a BJP stronghold, but has been eroded brutally. JD(S) has a strong presence in some segments. Still, it is an urban constituency, so Modi magic may help a bit. Requires a lot of hard work to regain.
Bangalore Central – BJP is about 90K votes behind Congress here. JD(S) has a strong presence in some constituencies. Will take a lot of Modi magic to regain this one.
Bangalore South – BJP is behind Congress by about 50K votes (This is one of the strongest of the BJP strongholds - just goes to show how much damage has been done to the BJP). Nevertheless, it is an urban constituency. Will require a lot of Modi magic (and considering it maybe Anant Kumar contesting from here, it will require a double helping of the Modi Magic) to retain. Good luck to the BJP!
Chikkaballapura – BJP vote is about 150K below Congress and 25K below JD(S). BjP has never won from here and has a weak base in some rural areas. Almost impossible to win.
Kolar – In third spot behind Congress and JD(S). Does not exist in several constituencies. Has never won from here. Will require a miracle to win now.
Based on the above, I would rate it this way:
Seats where BJP has a good chance – 2 (Belgaum, Dharwad)
Hard fights – 8 (Chikodi, Bagalkot, Gulbarga, Bidar, Uttar Kannada, Shimoga, Udupi-Chikmaglur, Tumkur)
Requires strong Modi Magic – 4 (Mangalore, Bangalore North, Bangalore Central, Bangalore South).
Brutally analysing the data, the BJP has a chance to win in only 14 of the 28 seats. And I will be very surprised if the BjP actually wins in more than 10 seats. More likely, BJP will settle around 5-7 seats.
Last edited by Shanmukh on 14 Sep 2013 03:08, edited 1 time in total.
ramana wrote:Can you do this state by state for all of India?
Not sure how relevant it would be where elections were held long ago. But yes, I think I can. I don't have all Assembly results in the last few years, but for those I have, I can do it. Can do it over the weekend.
I am not sure if this site was already known to BRFites, but you can go and change the swing factor for individual parties/ states/ constituencies across India to see the results. Swing Impact
(Site is created by the same guys behind niticentral.)
Example Scenarios compared to 2009 LokSabha:
If INC loses 2% votes across the nation, their tally would be 129
If INC loses 3% votes across the nation, their tally would be 101
If INC loses 5% votes across the nation, their tally would be 55
If BJP gains 2% votes across the nation, their tally would be 170
If BJP gains 3% votes across the nation, their tally would be 184(Their highest ever!!!)
Infact we can play this in individual states as well
======================================================================================
India Votes is India's largest elections data resource, and has been put together by the team at Niti Digital. It covers all Lok Sabha elections since 1952, and all State elections since 1977.
This looks like a power play by Scindia. A smart move as he may have the ability to win MP if Scindia is projected as the Congress CM candidate for MP.
friends, help me to solve the puzzle. Adding Modi factor here is a take:
It is a given that INC+BSP will go and Modi polarizes. At the end of the day if all non Yadav OBCs and forward caste folks of UP does not vote BJP it is very difficult for Modi to become PM. In the following scenario at district level here is the breakdown. Mulayam gets 10% because a Tsuanmi of INC+BSP will get all dalit+Muslim votes. Don't say "all will not vote" as that applies to every group and averages out.
Now Please destroy this theory. Anything less than 40 seats from UP in 2014 is bad news for Modi.
nageshks wrote:Folks - I just threw together an awk script to calculate the different votes for the BJP and KJP in the different constituencies in Karnataka and added some of my knowledge to those numbers. I am posting my analysis here (mods - if this is a violation of the policy, please lemme know and I will remove it).
The following analysis is based on the performance of the various parties in the Assembly elections. I am assuming the return of Yediyurappa and that the votes of the KJP and BJP add up. I have ignored all Modi effects.
Karnataka has traditionally voted for the party that has just won the Assembly elections in the Lok Sabha. Anti-incumbency tends to begin about 2-3 years after being elected. Given that we have just had a nice monsoon, I would not consider any seat where the BJP-KJP has more than 50K votes more than the Congress to be safe for the BJP. I would consider any seat where BJP has >50K votes less than Congress lost, unless there are other mitigating factors. Hard fights are those between -50K and +50K votes.
Chikodi – a few thousand votes lead for BJP. Possible to win here. JD(S) a distant third.
Belgaum – about 50K votes lead for BJP. Traditional BJP stronghold. Should not lose this. JD(S) not in picture
Bagalkot – About 50K votes deficit for BJP. Has been winning here for the last 3 elections, so may have accumulated considerable anti-incumbency. Not easy to win here, even with Yeddy. JD(S) irrelevant.
Bijapur – About 75K votes lower than Congress. JD(S) has surprisingly put up a very strong fight in many constituencies in this traditional BJP stronghold. Not easy to win this, even with Yeddy.
Gulbarga – About 25K votes higher than Congress. However, Gulbarga has always been a strong Congress fortress and is the home of Mallikarjun Kharge (not sure if this dinosaur will contest again). Nevertheless, while arithmetic favours BJP, chemistry favours Congress. Possible to win, but not at all easy. JD(S) of limited relevance.
Raichur – More than 100K lower than Congress. Pushed to irrelevancy in several constituencies (but traditionally, this constituency always featured a Cong-JD battle). JD(S) very strong and relevant. Will find this very hard to win.
Bidar – About 100K higher than Congress, but this is because there were powerful independents in the Assembly elections. JD(S) is strong and relevant. Also, this is the home turf of another Congress heavyweight, Dharam Singh (not sure if this Jurassic period guy can/will still contest). BJP may be able to win, but will have to sweat it out. But, in the past, this was a BJP stronghold under Ramachandra Veerappa, so BJP may win this. Possible, but not easy.
Koppal – Around 60K votes below Congress. JD(S) has mediocre strength. Possible to win, but really hard.
Bellary – About 120K below Congress. BJP has been more or less wiped out here by the revolt of Sreeramulu and the Reddy brothers. Even JD(S) has done better here, in many places. Yeddy or no Yeddy, without the Reddy brothers and Sreeramulu, will require a miracle from heaven to win.
Haveri – BJP about 75K below Congress. Sreeramulu has done considerable damage here too, to the BJP. JD(S) irrelevant here. Even with Yeddy back, BJP will find the going rather tough.
Dharwad – About 70K above Congress. With Yeddy back, this should be a safe seat for BJP. JD(S) a distant third. Even without KJP, BJP is on par with Congress here, and this seat is a traditional BJP stronghold. Probably going to win here.
Uttar Kannada – Votes of Congress and BJP-KJP almost at par. JD(S) has done extremely well here, mostly because of BJP defectors. Even BJP strongmen like Vishweshwara Hegde Kageri were pressed hard to win. This seat is not going to be easy to win. A lot will depend on how the JD(S) voters will vote in the coming elections.
Davanagere – BJP-KJP together about 100K votes below the Congress. JD(S) has turned in a decent performance. This seat is going to be very hard to win. BJP-KJP have fallen too far (and considering that this was once a BJP stronghold, it is even worse). Without Yeddy, BJP will be lucky to get back deposit.
Shimoga – BJP-KJP has a combined total of about 30K more than Congress. This is Yeddy's home turf, so he may just eke out a win. Not easy to win this, but not impossible.
Udupi-Chikmaglur – Congress-BJP votes almost at par. JD(S) only of limited relevance. BJP will have to work very hard to win this.
Hassan – BJP is not in the picture. JD(S) vs Congress.
Dakshina Kannada – BJP is about 80K votes below Congress. Yeddy not in picture here. This is the cruellest blow to the BJP, and shows just how far they have fallen in Karnataka. As an example, Sadananda Gowda (he did not contest personally, but he canvassed personally for the BJP candidate) could not retain his own constituency (Puttur) and lost it to his bete noire, Akka Shakuntala Shetty. Unless there is a polarisation due to Modi, which results in Hindus voting en-masse for the BJP, it is going to lose this (and shame on BJP for losing this!).
Chitradurga – BJP is in third place behind JD(S), about 200K votes below Congress. Has been utterly wiped out of huge regions (along with KJP) in this constituency. Unless the people vote for the candidate in Lok Sabha, BJP will likely lose deposit.
Tumkur – BJP vote about 100K more than Congress, but almost on par with JD(S). The results of the Assembly constituencies suggest that the fights were between individuals, rather than about parties. With Yeddy back, BJP may just hang on to this. Will require very hard work and balance will be on a knife edge. Will feature a triangular fight between BJP, Cong and JD(S).
Mandya – BJP does not enter the picture. JD(S) vs Congress.
Mysore – BJP about 160K behind Congress. Constituency will feature a triangular contest with JD(S) being very powerful in the rural segments (excluding Coorg). BJP will need a miracle from heaven to win.
Chamarajanagara – BJP is about 125K votes behind Congress, and on par with JD(S). Needs a miracle from heaven to win here. Besides, this seat has never elected a BJP candidate ever before. Always featured a Congress vs JD(S) contest.
Bangalore Rural – For most part, BJP not in picture. Fight between Cong and JD(S).
Bangalore North – BJP is behind Congress by about 150K votes here. This should have been a BJP stronghold, but has been eroded brutally. JD(S) has a strong presence in some segments. Still, it is an urban constituency, so Modi magic may help a bit. Requires a lot of hard work to regain.
Bangalore Central – BJP is about 90K votes behind Congress here. JD(S) has a strong presence in some constituencies. Will take a lot of Modi magic to regain this one.
Bangalore South – BJP is behind Congress by about 50K votes (This is one of the strongest of the BJP strongholds - just goes to show how much damage has been done to the BJP). Nevertheless, it is an urban constituency. Will require a lot of Modi magic (and considering it maybe Anant Kumar contesting from here, it will require a double helping of the Modi Magic) to retain. Good luck to the BJP!
Chikkaballapura – BJP vote is about 150K below Congress and 25K below JD(S). BjP has never won from here and has a weak base in some rural areas. Almost impossible to win.
Kolar – In third spot behind Congress and JD(S). Does not exist in several constituencies. Has never won from here. Will require a miracle to win now.
Based on the above, I would rate it this way:
Seats where BJP has a good chance – 2 (Belgaum, Dharwad)
Hard fights – 8 (Chikodi, Bagalkot, Gulbarga, Bidar, Uttar Kannada, Shimoga, Udupi-Chikmaglur, Tumkur)
Requires strong Modi Magic – 4 (Mangalore, Bangalore North, Bangalore Central, Bangalore South).
Brutally analysing the data, the BJP has a chance to win in only 14 of the 28 seats. And I will be very surprised if the BjP actually wins in more than 10 seats. More likely, BJP will settle around 5-7 seats.
Nagesh Avre, Even i feel that given current scenario in karnataka, bjp has chance in around 15 seats only that too with Yeddyurappa there with them. It would be a very good show by bjp if they do cross double digits. Even though i agree with most of the things you say have small nitpicks.
- Apart from bengaluru rural(though i don't know why it is still called so, imo this seat should be called ramanagara) all the rest of seats in bengaluru i.e. B.North, B.South, B.central should be categorized as "seats where bjp has chance" and not "requires modi magic". Also if yeddyurappa is present shivmogga is done deal more or less.
kittoo wrote:Can people of Delhi really cant see Khujliwal's antics? Isnt he a person in same vain as Congress, with even worse sense of economics and even worse streak of anti-Hinduism?
Bangladeshi illegals don't care about Hinduism. Bangladeshis contribute a huge number of votes according to another poster here, can't recall who was the poster though. Don't pay bills, give Kashmir to pak ityadi is an appeal for illegal bangladeshis, is it not?
Analysis of Himachal Pradesh. I am going backwards in time (in terms of Assembly elections), Ramana-ji. I am not familiar with the politics of Himachal. Would welcome some expert help in analysing this data.
The loss of Himachal can be attributed in some degree to very strong performance by independents (is this chance, or were these dissidents of either Congress or BJP?) particularly in the Shimla segment, and damage done by the Himachal Lokhit Party (HLP) - a BJP rebel party.(why, oh why, does BJP keep doing this to itself?) in the Mandi segment.
Mandi – BJP about 40K behind Congress. However, BJP's defeat seems to be the doing of HLP, which has put up a very strong showing here. If the HLP is brought back or neutralised, then the party would be able to regain this seat.
Shimla – BJP is about 50K behind Congress. There is a surprising (or is it for Himachal?) good performance of independents, who have knocked out either (or both) parties in several seats. Modi Magic may also help a lot, particularly in the urban regions which had voted for independents in the Assembly elections.
Kangra – BJP is about 60K votes behind Congress. Again a very strong performance by Independents and some damage (not a lot) by the HLP. Kangra was a BJP stronghold in general (at least for parliamentary elections). What happened here?
Hamirpur – BJP about 30K ahead. Has done well here despite some damage by HLP. Has won most of the constituencies in this parliamentary constituency. This is Prem Kumar Dhumal's stronghold. Should win here.
All in all - I would rate the chances this way, based on numbers and non-expert analysis
Gunjur wrote:
Nagesh Avre, Even i feel that given current scenario in karnataka, bjp has chance in around 15 seats only that too with Yeddyurappa there with them. It would be a very good show by bjp if they do cross double digits. Even though i agree with most of the things you say have small nitpicks.
- Apart from bengaluru rural(though i don't know why it is still called so, imo this seat should be called ramanagara) all the rest of seats in bengaluru i.e. B.North, B.South, B.central should be categorized as "seats where bjp has chance" and not "requires modi magic". Also if yeddyurappa is present shivmogga is done deal more or less.
Gunjur avare,
Bangalore Rural has several outlying Bangalore city constituencies in it (Rajarajeshwari Nagar, Anekal and Bangalore South). The latter two were once BJP strongholds (Y Ramakrishna used to win from Anekal, and Krishnappa won even this time from Bangalore South). However, this advantage is offset by the fact that the BJP does not even exist in some Assembly segments like Magadi, Ramanagaram, Kanakapura and Chennapatna. IMO, this was BJP's real failure - to build up an alternative leadership to Congress and JD(S) in this Vokkaliga belt.
Yediyurappa may just have the clout to see the party through in Shimoga (I did mention that). Nevertheless, I am not so confident.
Bangalore constituencies - While there is truth in what you say about Bangalore constituencies that the BJP has a chance (particularly Bangalore South), The `requires Modi Magic' is my expression for a seat where Modi can (and likely will) have considerable influence on the voting patterns. it is not a gradation (BJP has chance !> requires Modi Magic).
Gunjur wrote:
Nagesh Avre, Even i feel that given current scenario in karnataka, bjp has chance in around 15 seats only that too with Yeddyurappa there with them. It would be a very good show by bjp if they do cross double digits. Even though i agree with most of the things you say have small nitpicks.
- Apart from bengaluru rural(though i don't know why it is still called so, imo this seat should be called ramanagara) all the rest of seats in bengaluru i.e. B.North, B.South, B.central should be categorized as "seats where bjp has chance" and not "requires modi magic". Also if yeddyurappa is present shivmogga is done deal more or less.
Gunjur avare,
Bangalore Rural has several outlying Bangalore city constituencies in it (Rajarajeshwari Nagar, Anekal and Bangalore South). The latter two were once BJP strongholds (Y Ramakrishna used to win from Anekal, and Krishnappa won even this time from Bangalore South). However, this advantage is offset by the fact that the BJP does not even exist in some Assembly segments like Magadi, Ramanagaram, Kanakapura and Chennapatna. IMO, this was BJP's real failure - to build up an alternative leadership to Congress and JD(S) in this Vokkaliga belt.
Yediyurappa may just have the clout to see the party through in Shimoga (I did mention that). Nevertheless, I am not so confident.
Bangalore constituencies - While there is truth in what you say about Bangalore constituencies that the BJP has a chance (particularly Bangalore South), The `requires Modi Magic' is my expression for a seat where Modi can (and likely will) have considerable influence on the voting patterns. it is not a gradation (BJP has chance !> requires Modi Magic).
Yes, Anekal was bjp's stronghold, Narayanaswamy used to be mla here(not sure who is ramakrishna), anyways this time congress won. Anyways Anekal, Bengaluru south being more urban, bjp has presence here, but when it comes to lokasabha (seat being bengaluru rural), bjp is no show. The best they could do in this seat was in 2009 when they fielded operation kamala candidate yogeshwar.
WRT they not making any inroads in the okkaliga belt is because when J.H.Patel govt term ended and JD split into JD(s) and JD(u) bjp failed to lure any leaders in south karnataka but whereas in north karnataka, they were able to lure many district level leaders into bjp thereby wiping out JD(u) from karnataka. Most of the leaders in south karnataka like bacchegowda, yogeshwar were all operation kamala candidates whom they failed to hold on. The only okkaliga whom bjp could/should have nurtured who could show results over a period of of time is shobha karandlaje. If they had persisted with her, maybe she could have broken the hold of congress/jd(s) or atleast given them an entry in south karnataka which they badly need. But thats more or less not possible given internal dyamics of bjp. No one would have supported her, not even sadanand gowda, eshwarappa nor r.ashok. Though ashok maybe pushed forward by some leaders, somehow i feel he doesn't have "it" in him to build party in south karnataka.
EDIT: One thing which helps bjp is that this is lokasabha elections where they tend to do more better and also usually jd(s) tends to falter.
The actual electoral history of the BJP goes back to 1983, when, for the first time, the BJP had benefited from the Janata Party experiment, and was, for the first time, able to translate its base in the western coastal plains into seats. The Janata party days had given its candidates high profile appearance, and many had been elected from the coastal plains. More importantly, it had given the BJP its first taste of proper politicking. The RSS cadre had instilled discipline, and ability, but they still lacked political skills until then. The high level dramabazee, often vital for political success, was one such trick the BJP learnt during this period. The principal architect of the party in this period was the legendary Rama Bhat, who worked relentlessly from his constituency, Puttur, and built up the party in the Mangalore plains. This area already had a strong RSS presence, (often raised to protect against the immigrating Muslims from Kerala, because it caused local frictions). Consequently, even before 1980, the BJP and RSS had a reasonable influence in the farmer lobbies, because many farmers joined the RSS for safety.
Building up the party in the erstwhile Dakshina Kannada and Uttar Kannada districts, Rama Bhat led BJP managed 18 seats in Karnataka for the first time, winning about 8% of the popular vote. However, the party had contested only in constituencies where they felt they had a reasonable chance. In all actuality, the vote share of the party where it had contested was about 16%. Nevertheless, the party had established itself as a viable alternative to the Congress on the coastal plains. Rama Bhat had raised a whole crop of local leaders (some of whom it would be more proper to consider his colleagues) who would become very prominent in later years, and ensured their election to the Assembly. Karnataka watchers will recognise the names of some of those elected to the Assembly in the 1983 elections, viz, Dhananjaya Kumar (Mangalore), Rukmayya Poojary (Vittla), Vasanth Bangera (Belthangdy), and V S Acharya (Udupi), and Rama Bhat (Puttur). The BJP had arrived in the state, but was still limited to only a very small region on the west coast.
Even during this period, there were many others who were not in the coastal plains, and who were still able to win (eg: N Gangadhara from Krishnaraja in Mysore, and B S Yediyurappa from Shikaripura in Shimoga) on their own. Nevertheless, their influence was very limited. Both Yediyurappa and Gangadhara were essentially one seat wonders (they could win their seat, but had little influence beyond).
In terms of institutional influence, except for their penetration into the arecanut, cashew and coffee planters associations on the west coast, BJP had zero influence in institutions. There was no way the BJP could get into the big farmer lobbies. Industrialists influence was limited to Bangalore, and educated elite of Bangalore still tended left (as an example, CPI often won seats from Bangalore city). BJP's only ability was as a spoiler, and even their hold on the west coast, while organisationally sound, was politically tenuous.
This would be proved in the next 1985 elections. Almost all BJP MLAs who had won in 1983 were wiped out, including the great Rama Bhat himself. The pro JNP wave that swept the remainder of the state, also threw the BJP out of power in the Mangalore plains. In part, this was due to the splitting of the BJP vote in the coastal region (at this stage, the BJP and the JNP competed for the same base) and the Janata Party was still reasonably strong on the west coast. Anyway, BJP lost all its seats in the Mangalore region, except one (Vasanth Bangera in Belthangdy). Yediyurappa was the only other winner in the election from the BJP. To add insult to injury, Vasanth Bangera would desert the party in the coming years. The fall of the BJP on the west coast would have another casualty – that of Rama Bhat. He would essentially retire from active politics, and content himself with guiding the BJP and supporting his protege D V Sadananda Gowda. (It is the irony of ironies that the former chief minister, D V Sadananda Gowda, his protege, would fall apart from his one time mentor to the extent that Rama Bhat would send his other protege, Shakuntala Shetty, to the Congress to teach D V Sadananda Gowda a lesson)
Then came the 1989 elections, and a very strong pro-Congress wind blew in the state. The BJP, which in usual time, would have been able to profit from the anti-incumbency against sitting MLAs was stymied by the pro-Congress wind. And only a few small gains accrued to it in the Mangalore plains (Rukmayya Poojary returned from Vittla, but no one else won). However, in the meantime, the BJP had grown a bit in the Shimoga district. Capitalising on another BJP MLA's legacy in Shimoga (Ananda Rao), the BJP was able to snatch this seat from the Congress and get K S Eshwarappa elected.
However, by 1991, the ecosystem had changed hugely. The rise of Hindutva had turned the Bangalore elite to the BJP, and henceforth, this city would always have a fondness for the BJP in its heart. As a side effect, the CPI would lose its influence in Bangalore. There would be no more MS Krishnans for the CPI. What was more, by espousing Hindutva, the BJP had signalled to the big Hindu mathas that here was a party that would keep their interest in mind (and Yediyurappa played a superb role in this diplomacy, for which he should be lauded). While many mathas were already locked into political arrangements, the BJP's rise was welcomed by one hugely influential matha, the Siddaganga matha in Tumkur district. Its head, Sri Sri Shivakumaraswamy, would help the BJP (but like all clever people, he did not put all his eggs in the BJP basket). The 1991 Lok Sabha elections elected four BJP MPs from Karnataka for the first time (and I think it was the first time that the Congress got less than 25 seats out of 28 from Karnataka). The BJP had established itself as a credible opposition. It only remained to translate these gains in 1991 to the local level. By now, a large number of people had been attracted, and many rose from the RSS ranks to step up and take the party to the next stage. However, what is vital to observe, is that the BJP in 1991, had to rely on outsiders to take advantage of the Hindutva wave. It did not have its own members to take advantage of the Hindutva wave. Thus, Venkatagiri Gowda (a cantankerous and contentitious outsider) was fielded against Gundu Rao from Bangalore South, and ended up winning it, purely on the Hindutva wave. The other prominent outsider who came into the party was Srikanta Datta Narasimha Raja Wodeyar, the scion of Mysore. He lost the elections, but he was necessary, because the BJP had no real base outside the educated elite, in the district. Funnily enough, at this stage, the BJP had no base at all in northern Karnataka outside Bidar, and it was the principal opposition in most southern districts. At this point, its base was southern Karnataka, not northern Karnataka.
The 1994 Assembly election was a watershed. A strong anti-congress wave washed over Karnataka, but what was surprising was that, wherever the BJP was strong, it emerged the main beneficiary of this anti-Congress wave instead of the JD getting that benefit. However, in the Vokkaliga dominated old Mysore region, the JD became the main beneficiary because they projected H D Deve Gowda as their chief minister. Further, the old Mysore had, in the previous election, voted in the hopes that S M Krishna would become the CM. Their hopes had been belied, and they were in no mood to trust the Congress again. And the Vokkaliga belt had switched en masse to following Deve Gowda (but his full control of his community was still a good distance away)
The main regions that welcomed the BJP were the urban regions (Bangalore, Mysore, and Hubli), the coastal plains, and the Malnad regions of Karnataka. Some of these were the regions that had, at some point, elected BJP in the past (while the Bangalore urban elites were more recent converts, the urban elite of Hubli and Mysore had a tradition of electing the BJP before), and where the BJP had an organisational base to take advantage of the sympathy for the BJP. Further, particularly in Hubli-Dharwad, the BJP had benefited from the Idgah Maidan controversy. The sense of entitlement of the minority community had left the Hublikars thunderstruck. The BJP was able to capitalise on this problem. The final advantage was Yediyurappa's methodical building of the party particularly in the Malnad areas (Coorg, Shimoga and Chikmaglur districts), and the Hubli-Dharwad region. What the party had gained in 1991, Yediyurappa had not frittered away. He had methodically consolidated it using the organisation at every level. In fact, the organisation that the BJP has in Bangalore district is also the result of the hard work of Yediyurappa. Prominent finds of Yediyurappa include C T Ravi in Chikmaglur, Bopaiah in Virajpet, Appachu Ranjan in (the then) Somwarpet, and Y Ramakrishna (the SC cell chief of the BJP) in Anekal. The end result of it all was that the BJP emerged as the principal opposition party to the ruling JD. The Congress, struck by the anti-Congress wave, and the sabotage of Bangarappa, was relegated to third place in number of seats (but their vote share was still far higher than the BJP).
But already, at this stage, two more changes, little noticed, were taking place. The BJP, in 1991, had, for regions where it had no base, thrown any known name it could get to contest elections on its symbol. One such person, B B Shivappa (a man known in Karnataka, to those watching politics, as a long time and prominent BJP man) had been thrown into Hassan to contest in 1991 against prominent personalities like HC Srikantaiah (Cong) and HD Deve Gowda (JD). He had utilised the intervening years to build up the BJP base in the district, and had managed to win several converts (prominent would be H N Nanje Gowda and A Manju, both coming from the Congress). He managed to win Sakaleshapura, and his candidates put up a very good performance in Belur, Arkalgud, and Arsikere. In short, the BJP was building itself as a strong alternative to both the Congress and the JD in the district under the tutelage of B B Shivappa. The second change was the arrival of a man, little noticed at the time, but who would go on to play a prominent role in the BJP. That person was Basanagowda Patil Yatnal, who won the Bijapur city seat for the BJP. Bijapur already had a decent organisation, so this victory was not so noticed, but the man would play a vital role for the BJP in the coming years.
The 1996 Lok Sabha elections went along expected lines. The BJP expanded its base in constituencies in regions where it had MLAs. It retained Bangalore South, Mangalore and Bidar, and wrested Davanagere, Dharwad North, and Uttar Kannada (all regions where it had won seats in the previous Assembly elections). It lost Tumkur (but put up a very solid performance even there – some losses are to be expected anyway). In short, 1996 could be seen as a continuation of the situation that existed in 1994. The important point was that the BJP, continuing on its previous high, edged out the Congress in terms of number of seats. If the BJP was limited to some seats, it was a winner in those seats. The BJP's gains became more permanent, and its 1991 performance was no longer seen as a flash in the pan.
By 1998, the entire scenario had changed, and everything turned topsy turvy. Deve Gowda had becoem the prime minister and had ensconced himself in the hearts of the Vokkaligas in southern Karnataka as their principal champion. Ramakrishna Hedge had been expelled from the party, and he was breaking the JD base in northern Karnataka (Several prominent JD leaders left the party to join Hedge – the principal ones included Ramesh Jigajinagi, Ajaykumar Sarnaik and Siddannagoudar. The BJP did an excellent job striking up a bargain with the Lok Shakti. Ramakrishna Hegde was very useful in making the BJP a household name in northern Karnataka and several JD leaders entered the BJP, particularly in (the then) Dharwad, Belgaum, Gulbarga and Bijapur districts. In all honesty, Hegde's power was limited to these four districts. And the BJP was well poised to organisationally reap the benefit of Yediyurappa's hard work, and Hegde's defection.
But a development largely overlooked by most people is Basanagouda's Patil coup in 1998. He managed to talk over one of the most powerful leaders of Belgaum district, i.e., Babagouda Patil. A man coming from the KRRS (Karnataka Rajya Raitara Sangha) background, Babagouda Patil's entry into the BJP transformed the party in northern Karnataka. His entry gave the BJP, an urban party in the region until then, a handle into the farmers unions of the Bombay-Karnataka area, and more importantly, opened the party doors to the sugar barons of the region. Overnight, the BJP could now count on a cadre of farmer activists to campaign and help in every booth. It made the BJP look a party that would care about farmers' interests, instead of being a party of city slickers. And, most importantly, it transformed the BJP into a party where sugar barons would throw in their lot and give it an enduring base in the region. Now we have an idea of why the BJP is so strong in the Belgaum-Bijapur-Bagalkot region. It is not the entry of the JD leaders (most of whom have deserted the BJP and had even in 2008). It is the base in the farmers unions and the entry of the erstwhile KRRS sugar barons that makes the party able to endure even shocks like Yeddy's desertion. The credit for building the BJP in this region goes not to Yediyurappa,or even Ramakrishna Hegde, but to Basanagouda Patil.
The 1998 elections reflected the huge unpopularity of the JD and the Congress. The BJP won in plenty of areas where it had stood second, and the JD was almost wiped out, except in regions like Hassan. (But even in Hassan, the BJP had put up a superb fight, thanks to the spadework done by B B Shivappa, and was not remotely the non-entity it is in the district today.). It more than doubled its number of seats. For all practical purposes, the BJP, on its own stood within sight of power. However, there was a worrying factor, even at this stage. The BJP had failed to build up its base in several districts.
The next elections in 1999 (both central and state), however, were a disaster for the BJP. The party, which was expected to double its strength in the Assembly, was instead forced into a near suicidal alliance with the hugely unpopular JH Patel government by Ramakrishna Hegde and Atal Bihari Vajpayee (As an aside, Vajpayee may have been a great statesman and brilliant orator and politician, but the `credit' for limiting the organic growth of the BJP goes to him!) The BJP was routed, for trying to rescue Patel. Further, while the arithmetic may have added up (as seen by Vajpayee and his group in Delhi), chemistry did not. The JD(U) and the BJP had long been opponents. A marriage of two unwilling, even inimical, partners could not and did not work. BJP and JD ended up sabotaging each other. BJP stalwarts like Yediyurappa and Eshwarappa were crushed by unheard of opponents. JD(U) stalwarts faced a similar fate. Poor BJP leaders were reduced to asking for votes for people whom they had opposed until the previous day. Their credibility went into the dustbin, and unsurprisingly, both the BJP and the JD(U) were routed in Karnataka, not only in the Assembly elections, but also the Lok Sabha elections. The disaster occurred not only in the rural areas, but also in the urban areas. People who had looked to the BJP for a higher standard in politics were utterly dismayed, and they abandoned the BJP for the Congress, which had put up the erudite S M Krishna as the chief ministerial candidate.
In an ironic twist of fate, by breaking away from Patel and his government, and starting JD(S), Deve Gowda was able to garner a considerable amount of sympathy, particularly in the Vokkaliga strongholds. He also managed to escape the blame for the acts of the Patel government for which he himself was often wholly responsible.
The end result of the 1999 elections was that the BJP barely increased its tally, (its partner, JD(U) was reduced to an even more pitiful score). The Congress formed the government, a state they had hardly believed possible. However, in this general collapse of the BJP (particularly its bosses), two men had increased their clout. These were B B Shivappa and Basanagouda Patil. These men had remained standing, holding their heads high, while their stalwart colleagues had fallen. In fact, B B Shivappa had managed to wrest four of the eight seats in Hassan district (the other four were won by the Congress). Deve Gowda himself was trounced by his bete noire, Puttaswamy Gowda. His son was routed in Deve Gowda's pocket borough, Holenarasipur. Deve Gowda's fortunes seemed to have reached their nadir, after hitting a high two years previously.
At this point, however, not only did the fortune of the BJP fall precipitously, but also an acrimonious battle began inside the BJP. B B Shivappa, the man who had built the party fortunes in Hassan got into fight with Yediyurappa over the position of the party chief. The battle ended with B B Shivappa being expelled with his proteges from the BJP. The party's base in Hassan withered away over the next few years, and the BJP has never been able to regain its influence again. In absence of B B Shivappa, Deve Gowda was able to poach on some of its more powerful leaders in the district, and A Manju deserted the party for the Congress. The BJP, by 20004, was a mere shell of its old self in the district.
However, the 1999 elections also had another side effect. Sonia Gandhi had contested from Bellary, and to pin her down to the constituency, the BJP imported Sushma Swaraj. The problem, however, was that the BJP had no base in the district. In order to overcome this deficiency, the party attracted a few people in the district. Among its more prominent catches were the Reddy brothers and Sriramulu. Sriramulu had joined the party a little earlier and he brought in the Reddy brothers, under the patronage of Ms. Swaraj. These people were rich and well connected, and having grown very rich on the iron ore rich region, were able to influence the party's fortunes in central Karnataka. However, their unsavoury connections would prove to be a bane in the long run for the party.
By 2004, the party was able to put its house in order, and put up a united and spectacular performance. It won about eighty seats, and won, not only in its old strongholds, but also expanded into old JD haunts. With its coffers full thanks to the Reddy brothers and Sriramulu, some clever poaching by Yediyurappa in the Hyderabad Karnataka region, and united efforts by all leaders, the BJP was able to sweep all of western Karnataka, make a dent in the Hyderabad Karnataka region, and finish as the largest party. However, there were two major flaws in the BJP diamond. The recent breakthroughs in the Hyderabad Karnataka region depended on the personal charisma of Yeddy and the money power of the Reddies. The organisational base of the BJP in these regions was still weak, and the leaders owed their rise to Yeddy. They were loyal to Yeddy, not to BJP. To make matters worse, these new leaders had little in common with the ideology of the BJP.
The alliance with Kumaraswamy was another tactical success, but strategic blunder. Because the BJP was tied down in an Alliance with Kumaraswamy, they could not expand in Deve Gowda's strongholds in Vokkaliga strongholds in the old Mysore. How does one go around canvassing against one's own government and Allies? The BJP, therefore, between 2006 and 2008, was unable to expand the party base in the old Mysore region.
By 2008, in fact, the party seemed to be on the wane everywhere,except in northern Karnataka. And the high water mark of eighty seats in 2004, seemed to be a distant goal. However, then came the betrayal of Deve Gowda and the fall of the Yediyurappa government. This was a golden opportunity for the BJP, and it managed to win over some powerful Vokkaliga leaders. Principal ones include G T Deve Gowda in Mysore, and Bacche Gowda in Hoskote. However, Deve Gowda was able to successfully transform it into a contest between Vokkaligas and the Lingayats (Kumaraswamy vs Yeddy was seen in these terms in the Vokkaliga belt). This was the reason why even Vokkaligas in the BJP were unable to make much headway in the region (G T Deve Gowda was defeated by a greenhorn in Hunsur, and Bacche Gowda turned into a one seat wonder in Hoskote. Further, they never got much importance in the Yeddy government. Bacche Gowda could do little because he had little influence in the party or government. Ashok did not shoulder too much burden, and he is too much a `city slicker').
The 2008 elections catapulted the BJP into power, but there were ominous signs in the aftermath of the victory. Once Yeddy came to power, he started cutting other Lingayat leaders to size, and gave no importance to the Vokkaligas (it did not suit his personal politics to have other powerful leaders). He got into a bitter fight with Basanagouda Patil Yatnal (after sabotaging Yatnal and making sure he lost in Nagthan),and the latter, a man who had done enormous amount of work in northern Karnataka, was expelled from the BJP to appease Yeddy. Another sacrifice to appease Yeddy was the sidelining of Jagadish Shettar (another very important leader from northern Karnataka). With both Shettar and Patil gone, Yeddy was the undisputed Lingayat leader. The dangers of this policy were already apparent in the 2009 Lok Sabha elections. Barely an year into power, the BJP victory margins, particularly in the Bombay Karnataka region, came down drastically, and the lack of Basanagouda Patil was felt heavily in Bombay Karnataka.
Yediyurappa initiated Operation Kamala to poach on leaders from the Congress and JD(S), but again, the leaders he got were exceptionally hard to stomach for anyone with half a sense of decency.
Yeddy also made sure no Vokkaliga leaders would rise to challenge him in any way. The Reddy brothers' connection to illegal mining made them persona non grata in the BJP, and the exit of Sreeramulu led to the destruction of the BJP influence in large regions of Hyderabad Karnataka and northern regions of old Mysore. Yeddy himself, after having destroyed all other leaders of significance in Karnataka BJP, deserted the party, taking most of its leadership in central Karnataka, and large regions of Hyderabad Karnataka and leaving it a shell of its former self.
For all practical purposes, the BJP is now limited to the coastal plains, Bangalore, and the sugar baron influenced regions of Bombay Karnataka (Belgaum, and Chikodi). Apart from that, there are a few urban strongholds, and a few leaders still remaining from the old times, particularly in Dharwad and Chikmaglur regions (which is why the BJP managed to hold its own in these two districts). This was the situation in which the BJP faced the 2013 elections, and was unsurprisingly, routed.
Simply put, the BJP is, more or less, in the same situation it was in 1994, but with a few minor changes. It has two advantages. First, it is well established in Karnataka as a party of significance. Second, it has the power of the sugar barons of Belgaum at its back. Hopefully, these men will prove loyal to the party.
Yediyurappa's return is touted as an answer, and to some extent, it is true. However, it is important to realise that his return is a short term solution for the current election, but in the long term, with his arrogance, nepotism and his propensity of ensuring the destruction of all other leaders of significance, he poses a serious challenge to the revival of the BJP in Karnataka. If Yediyurappa returns to the BJP, it will be tied to his goodwill (and as we have seen, it is not a good thing to depend on). Further, his performance as a CM was nothing to write home about. Whether people will vote for his chief ministership a second time remains to be seen. Yeddy has shown that he can be a spoiler, but nothing more. But his return, particularly in the coming elections, can help a great deal in assuaging Lingayat anger (where it exists), and help a few candidates, particularly in the Hyderabad Karnataka region, and central Karnataka.
What next?
That remains to be seen.
Last edited by Shanmukh on 15 Sep 2013 18:40, edited 3 times in total.
Gunjur wrote:
Yes, Anekal was bjp's stronghold, Narayanaswamy used to be mla here(not sure who is ramakrishna), anyways this time congress won. Anyways Anekal, Bengaluru south being more urban, bjp has presence here, but when it comes to lokasabha (seat being bengaluru rural), bjp is no show. The best they could do in this seat was in 2009 when they fielded operation kamala candidate yogeshwar.
Erm - no. The best performance of the BJP was in 1998, when M Srinivas of the BJP won the seat (then it was called Kanakapura). Y Ramakrishna was the BJP's SC cell chief for Karnataka. He was a one seat wonder - kept winning Anekal, but was unable to do much more.
WRT they not making any inroads in the okkaliga belt is because when J.H.Patel govt term ended and JD split into JD(s) and JD(u) bjp failed to lure any leaders in south karnataka but whereas in north karnataka, they were able to lure many district level leaders into bjp thereby wiping out JD(u) from karnataka.
Erm - no. Not quite. Most of the JD(U) leaders are today in JD(S). The BJP's rise in northern Karnataka owes to three people. Yediyurappa in Hyderabad Karnataka region, Basanagouda Patil Yatnal and Babagouda Patil in the Bombay Karnataka region. The only big JD leader the BJP grabbed is Ramesh Jigajinagi. All the rest are with Congress or JD(S).
Most of the leaders in south karnataka like bacchegowda, yogeshwar were all operation kamala candidates whom they failed to hold on.
Bacche Gowda joined the BJP before 2008 elections. Only Yogeshwar was bought in during Operation Kamala.
The only okkaliga whom bjp could/should have nurtured who could show results over a period of of time is shobha karandlaje. If they had persisted with her, maybe she could have broken the hold of congress/jd(s) or atleast given them an entry in south karnataka which they badly need. But thats more or less not possible given internal dyamics of bjp. No one would have supported her, not even sadanand gowda, eshwarappa nor r.ashok. Though ashok maybe pushed forward by some leaders, somehow i feel he doesn't have "it" in him to build party in south karnataka.
Shobha was simply not qualified to be anything. The BJP never produced a Vokkaliga leader to appease Yeddy, who would not allow any other leader to remain in BJP. For a real BJP Vokkaliga leader, the BJP should have gone after the KRRS in Mandya, and absorbed them. Their leader, K S Puttannaiah keeps winning in Melukote-Srirangapatnam region even against powerhouses like Deve Gowda and S M Krishna. Bringing him in would give the BJP a handle in the Mysore-Mandya region similar to what Babagouda Patil did in 1998.
EDIT: One thing which helps bjp is that this is lokasabha elections where they tend to do more better and also usually jd(s) tends to falter.
While this is true for many cases, I am afraid that in this case, JD(S) votes will more likely transfer to the Congress than the BJP. The BJP has simply lost too much goodwill. Anything the BJP wins in Karnataka is bonus.
BJP's Anekal mla was narayanaswamy, though he was a 4 time mla, he wasn't made a minister. So he usually identified with anti-yeddyurappa faction. Later in shettar's or gowda's ministry he was made minister. Even in 2013 elections it was narayanaswamy who contested on bjp ticket. He lost to congress( iirc shivanna from congress won from anekal).
Yes, sorry bjp had won bangalore rural/kanakapura seat in 98. But that was a short lived moment for bjp. IIRC then chandrashekar murthy who usually contested and won from congress hadn't contested. Was it premchandra sagar who had contested from congress( am sure he had once contested from congress, is it 96 or 98 not sure)?? Also in 98 from JD it was kumaraswamy who had contested and given the infighting in JD then between devegowda and JH Patel, they lost badly. Though he has been in bjp for some time now. Unfortunately he lost elections from rajarajeshwarinagar seat this time. He did have a stint in JD, though not sure was it JD or JD(s). Also if am not wrong he just recently joined congress.
Bacche gowda joined bjp before elections in 2008. When JD split he was in JD(u), even basavaraj bommai came from JD(u), is it before 2008 or after?? The basic point i made was Bjp poached leaders from erstwhile JD. The thing to note is that am not saying that is wrong or whatever. I am putting this as FYI. The biggest gain bjp got was by joining hands with ramakrishna hegde though who had formed his own party, knowingly or unkowingly ensured that lokshakti party and JD(u) votes transferred into bjp. Basically here i mean that what was JD vote in north karnataka gradually moved into hands of bjp.
Basanagouda patil yetnal won in 99 from bijapura when the alliance between what was or would later be JD(u) was already in place with bjp formally or informally. That was the first time bjp won here untill then it was congress/jd affair(mostly congress). Anyways after his rather public fight with yeddyurappa he is now in JD(s) for sometime now. Babagouda patil won belgaavi only once, he had raitha sangha background if am not wrong. Even now suresh angadi who is belagaavi mp is winning because of bjp and not the other way round. Jarkiholi family a big name belagaavi district is equally present in all parties so as to minimise the damage.
The basic point i am making here is disintegration of JD helped bjp in north karnataka where they occupied the non-congress vote/space which was in hands of erstwhile Janta dal. But in south karnataka, they couldn't do so. Actually even in south karnataka, JD(s) was washed away in 99 elections in south karnataka. If not for untimely death of chandrashekar murthy who was the sitting mp of kanakpura, devegowda fought a do or die battle during the by-election and won. This ensured that Jd(s) bounced back and showed its best performance in 2004 elections(am talking of JD(s) and not erstwhile JD.)
KRRS though a strong grassroot organisation won assembly election in 2013, even in 2008 it was jd(s) which won in melukote.
WRT okkaliga leadership in bjp, each person has different opinion. In this case we differ. I still feel whether its sadanandgowda or ashok, they don't have it in them to build party in south karnataka. I didn't say that shobha would build bjp in 1 year or 3 years, but over a period of time she would have done a better job compared to sadanandgowda or ashok. As i said we have different opinions here.
EDIT: Yes, ramakrishna was an earlier mla from anekal much before narayanaswamy.
Last edited by gunjur on 15 Sep 2013 19:56, edited 2 times in total.
The actual electoral history of the BJP goes back to 1983, when, for the first time, the BJP had benefited from the Janata Party experiment, and was, for the first time, able to translate its base in the western coastal plains into seats. The Janata party days had given its candidates high profile appearance, and many had been elected from the coastal plains. More importantly, it had given the BJP its first taste of proper politicking. The RSS cadre had instilled discipline, and ability, but they still lacked political skills until then. The high level dramabazee, often vital for political success, was one such trick the BJP learnt during this period. The principal architect of the party in this period was the legendary Rama Bhat, who worked relentlessly from his constituency, Puttur, and built up the party in the Mangalore plains. This area already had a strong RSS presence, (often raised to protect against the immigrating Muslims from Kerala, because it caused local frictions). Consequently, even before 1980, the BJP and RSS had a reasonable influence in the farmer lobbies, because many farmers joined the RSS for safety.
Building up the party in the erstwhile Dakshina Kannada and Uttar Kannada districts, Rama Bhat led BJP managed 18 seats in Karnataka for the first time, winning about 8% of the popular vote. However, the party had contested only in constituencies where they felt they had a reasonable chance. In all actuality, the vote share of the party where it had contested was about 16%. Nevertheless, the party had established itself as a viable alternative to the Congress on the coastal plains. Rama Bhat had raised a whole crop of local leaders (some of whom it would be more proper to consider his colleagues) who would become very prominent in later years, and ensured their election to the Assembly. Karnataka watchers will recognise the names of some of those elected to the Assembly in the 1983 elections, viz, Dhananjaya Kumar (Mangalore), Rukmayya Poojary (Vittla), Vasanth Bangera (Belthangdy), and V S Acharya (Udupi), and D. V. Sadananda Gowda (Puttur). The BJP had arrived in the state, but was still limited to only a very small region on the west coast.
Even during this period, there were many others who were not in the coastal plains, and who were still able to win (eg: N Gangadhara from Krishnaraja in Mysore, and B S Yediyurappa from Shikaripura in Shimoga) on their own. Nevertheless, their influence was very limited. Both Yediyurappa and Gangadhara were essentially one seat wonders (they could win their seat, but had little influence beyond).
In terms of institutional influence, except for their penetration into the arecanut, cashew and coffee planters associations on the west coast, BJP had zero influence in institutions. There was no way the BJP could get into the big farmer lobbies. Industrialists influence was limited to Bangalore, and educated elite of Bangalore still tended left (as an example, CPI often won seats from Bangalore city). BJP's only ability was as a spoiler, and even their hold on the west coast, while organisationally sound, was politically tenuous.
This would be proved in the next 1985 elections. Almost all BJP MLAs who had won in 1983 were wiped out, including the great Rama Bhat himself. The pro JNP wave that swept the remainder of the state, also threw the BJP out of power in the Mangalore plains. In part, this was due to the splitting of the BJP vote in the coastal region (at this stage, the BJP and the JNP competed for the same base) and the Janata Party was still reasonably strong on the west coast. Anyway, BJP lost all its seats in the Mangalore region, except one (Vasanth Bangera in Belthangdy). Yediyurappa was the only other winner in the election from the BJP. To add insult to injury, Vasanth Bangera would desert the party in the coming years. The fall of the BJP on the west coast would have another casualty – that of Rama Bhat. He would essentially retire from active politics, and content himself with guiding the BJP and supporting his protege D V Sadananda Gowda. (It is the irony of ironies that the former chief minister, D V Sadananda Gowda, his protege, would fall apart from his one time mentor to the extent that Rama Bhat would send his other protege, Shakuntala Shetty, to the Congress to teach D V Sadananda Gowda a lesson)
Then came the 1989 elections, and a very strong pro-Congress wind blew in the state. The BJP, which in usual time, would have been able to profit from the anti-incumbency against sitting MLAs was stymied by the pro-Congress wind. And only a few small gains accrued to it in the Mangalore plains (Rukmayya Poojary returned from Vittla, but no one else won). However, in the meantime, the BJP had grown a bit in the Shimoga district. Capitalising on another BJP MLA's legacy in Shimoga (Ananda Rao), the BJP was able to snatch this seat from the Congress and get K S Eshwarappa elected.
However, by 1991, the ecosystem had changed hugely. The rise of Hindutva had turned the Bangalore elite to the BJP, and henceforth, this city would always have a fondness for the BJP in its heart. As a side effect, the CPI would lose its influence in Bangalore. There would be no more MS Krishnans for the CPI. What was more, by espousing Hindutva, the BJP had signalled to the big Hindu mathas that here was a party that would keep their interest in mind (and Yediyurappa played a superb role in this diplomacy, for which he should be lauded). While many mathas were already locked into political arrangements, the BJP's rise was welcomed by one hugely influential matha, the Siddaganga matha in Tumkur district. Its head, Shivakumaraswamy, would help the BJP (but like all clever people, he did not put all his eggs in the BJP basket). The 1991 Lok Sabha elections elected four BJP MPs from Karnataka for the first time (and I think it was the first time that the Congress got less than 25 seats out of 28 from Karnataka). The BJP had established itself as a credible opposition. It only remained to translate these gains in 1991 to the local level. By now, a large number of people had been attracted, and many rose from the RSS ranks to step up and take the party to the next stage. However, what is vital to observe, is that the BJP in 1991, had to rely on outsiders to take advantage of the Hindutva wave. It did not have its own members to take advantage of the Hindutva wave. Thus, Venkatagiri Gowda (a cantankerous and contentitious outsider) was fielded against Gundu Rao from Bangalore South, and ended up winning it, purely on the Hindutva wave. The other prominent outsider who came into the party was Srikanta Datta Narasimha Raja Wodeyar, the scion of Mysore. He lost the elections, but he was necessary, because the BJP had no real base outside the educated elite, in the district. Funnily enough, at this stage, the BJP had no base at all in northern Karnataka outside Bidar, and it was the principal opposition in most southern districts. At this point, its base was southern Karnataka, not northern Karnataka.
The 1994 Assembly election was a watershed. A strong anti-congress wave washed over Karnataka, but what was surprising was that, wherever the BJP was strong, it emerged the main beneficiary of this anti-Congress wave instead of the JD getting that benefit. However, in the Vokkaliga dominated old Mysore region, the JD became the main beneficiary because they projected H D Deve Gowda as their chief minister. Further, the old Mysore had, in the previous election, voted in the hopes that S M Krishna would become the CM. Their hopes had been belied, and they were in no mood to trust the Congress again. And the Vokkaliga belt had switched en masse to following Deve Gowda (but his full control of his community was still a good distance away)
The main regions that welcomed the BJP were the urban regions (Bangalore, Mysore, and Hubli), the coastal plains, and the Malnad regions of Karnataka. Some of these were the regions that had, at some point, elected BJP in the past (while the Bangalore urban elites were more recent converts, the urban elite of Hubli and Mysore had a tradition of electing the BJP before), and where the BJP had an organisational base to take advantage of the sympathy for the BJP. Further, particularly in Hubli-Dharwad, the BJP had benefited from the Idgah Maidan controversy. The sense of entitlement of the minority community had left the Hublikars thunderstruck. The BJP was able to capitalise on this problem. The final advantage was Yediyurappa's methodical building of the party particularly in the Malnad areas (Coorg, Shimoga and Chikmaglur districts), and the Hubli-Dharwad region. What the party had gained in 1991, Yediyurappa had not frittered away. He had methodically consolidated it using the organisation at every level. In fact, the organisation that the BJP has in Bangalore district is also the result of the hard work of Yediyurappa. Prominent finds of Yediyurappa include C T Ravi in Chikmaglur, Bopaiah in Virajpet, Appachu Ranjan in (the then) Somwarpet, and Y Ramakrishna (the SC cell chief of the BJP) in Anekal. The end result of it all was that the BJP emerged as the principal opposition party to the ruling JD. The Congress, struck by the anti-Congress wave, and the sabotage of Bangarappa, was relegated to third place in number of seats (but their vote share was still far higher than the BJP).
But already, at this stage, two more changes, little noticed, were taking place. The BJP, in 1991, had, for regions where it had no base, thrown any known name it could get to contest elections on its symbol. One such person, B B Shivappa (a man known in Karnataka, to those watching politics, as a long time and prominent BJP man) had been thrown into Hassan to contest in 1991 against prominent personalities like HC Srikantaiah (Cong) and HD Deve Gowda (JD). He had utilised the intervening years to build up the BJP base in the district, and had managed to win several converts (prominent would be H N Nanje Gowda and A Manju, both coming from the Congress). He managed to win Sakaleshapura, and his candidates put up a very good performance in Belur, Arkalgud, and Arsikere. In short, the BJP was building itself as a strong alternative to both the Congress and the JD in the district under the tutelage of B B Shivappa. The second change was the arrival of a man, little noticed at the time, but who would go on to play a prominent role in the BJP. That person was Basanagowda Patil Yatnal, who won the Bijapur city seat for the BJP. Bijapur already had a decent organisation, so this victory was not so noticed, but the man would play a vital role for the BJP in the coming years.
The 1996 Lok Sabha elections went along expected lines. The BJP expanded its base in constituencies in regions where it had MLAs. It retained Bangalore South, Mangalore and Bidar, and wrested Davanagere, Dharwad North, and Uttar Kannada (all regions where it had won seats in the previous Assembly elections). It lost Tumkur (but put up a very solid performance even there – some losses are to be expected anyway). In short, 1996 could be seen as a continuation of the situation that existed in 1994. The important point was that the BJP, continuing on its previous high, edged out the Congress in terms of number of seats. If the BJP was limited to some seats, it was a winner in those seats. The BJP's gains became more permanent, and its 1991 performance was no longer seen as a flash in the pan.
By 1998, the entire scenario had changed, and everything turned topsy turvy. Deve Gowda had becoem the prime minister and had ensconced himself in the hearts of the Vokkaligas in southern Karnataka as their principal champion. Ramakrishna Hedge had been expelled from the party, and he was breaking the JD base in northern Karnataka (Several prominent JD leaders left the party to join Hedge – the principal ones included Ramesh Jigajinagi, Ajaykumar Sarnaik and Siddannagoudar. The BJP did an excellent job striking up a bargain with the Lok Shakti. Ramakrishna Hegde was very useful in making the BJP a household name in northern Karnataka and several JD leaders entered the BJP, particularly in (the then) Dharwad, Belgaum, Gulbarga and Bijapur districts. In all honesty, Hegde's power was limited to these four districts. And the BJP was well poised to organisationally reap the benefit of Yediyurappa's hard work, and Hegde's defection.
But a development largely overlooked by most people is Basanagouda's Patil coup in 1998. He managed to talk over one of the most powerful leaders of Belgaum district, i.e., Babagouda Patil. A man coming from the KRRS (Karnataka Rajya Raitara Sangha) background, Babagouda Patil's entry into the BJP transformed the party in northern Karnataka. His entry gave the BJP, an urban party in the region until then, a handle into the farmers unions of the Bombay-Karnataka area, and more importantly, opened the party doors to the sugar barons of the region. Overnight, the BJP could now count on a cadre of farmer activists to campaign and help in every booth. It made the BJP look a party that would care about farmers' interests, instead of being a party of city slickers. And, most importantly, it transformed the BJP into a party where sugar barons would throw in their lot and give it an enduring base in the region. Now we have an idea of why the BJP is so strong in the Belgaum-Bijapur-Bagalkot region. It is not the entry of the JD leaders (most of whom have deserted the BJP and had even in 2008). It is the base in the farmers unions and the entry of the erstwhile KRRS sugar barons that makes the party able to endure even shocks like Yeddy's desertion. The credit for building the BJP in this region goes not to Yediyurappa,or even Ramakrishna Hegde, but to Basanagouda Patil.
The 1998 elections reflected the huge unpopularity of the JD and the Congress. The BJP won in plenty of areas where it had stood second, and the JD was almost wiped out, except in regions like Hassan. (But even in Hassan, the BJP had put up a superb fight, thanks to the spadework done by B B Shivappa, and was not remotely the non-entity it is in the district today.). It more than doubled its number of seats. For all practical purposes, the BJP, on its own stood within sight of power. However, there was a worrying factor, even at this stage. The BJP had failed to build up its base in several districts.
The next elections in 1999 (both central and state), however, were a disaster for the BJP. The party, which was expected to double its strength in the Assembly, was instead forced into a near suicidal alliance with the hugely unpopular JH Patel government by Ramakrishna Hegde and Atal Bihari Vajpayee (As an aside, Vajpayee may have been a great statesman and brilliant orator and politician, but the `credit' for limiting the organic growth of the BJP goes to him!) The BJP was routed, for trying to rescue Patel. Further, while the arithmetic may have added up (as seen by Vajpayee and his group in Delhi), chemistry did not. The JD(U) and the BJP had long been opponents. A marriage of two unwilling, even inimical, partners could not and did not work. BJP and JD ended up sabotaging each other. BJP stalwarts like Yediyurappa and Eshwarappa were crushed by unheard of opponents. JD(U) stalwarts faced a similar fate. Poor BJP leaders were reduced to asking for votes for people whom they had opposed until the previous day. Their credibility went into the dustbin, and unsurprisingly, both the BJP and the JD(U) were routed in Karnataka, not only in the Assembly elections, but also the Lok Sabha elections. The disaster occurred not only in the rural areas, but also in the urban areas. People who had looked to the BJP for a higher standard in politics were utterly dismayed, and they abandoned the BJP for the Congress, which had put up the erudite S M Krishna as the chief ministerial candidate.
In an ironic twist of fate, by breaking away from Patel and his government, and starting JD(S), Deve Gowda was able to garner a considerable amount of sympathy, particularly in the Vokkaliga strongholds. He also managed to escape the blame for the acts of the Patel government for which he himself was often wholly responsible.
The end result of the 1999 elections was that the BJP barely increased its tally, (its partner, JD(U) was reduced to an even more pitiful score). The Congress formed the government, a state they had hardly believed possible. However, in this general collapse of the BJP (particularly its bosses), two men had increased their clout. These were B B Shivappa and Basanagouda Patil. These men had remained standing, holding their heads high, while their stalwart colleagues had fallen. In fact, B B Shivappa had managed to wrest four of the eight seats in Hassan district (the other four were won by the Congress). Deve Gowda himself was trounced by his bete noire, Puttaswamy Gowda. His son was routed in Deve Gowda's pocket borough, Holenarasipur. Deve Gowda's fortunes seemed to have reached their nadir, after hitting a high two years previously.
At this point, however, not only did the fortune of the BJP fall precipitously, but also an acrimonious battle began inside the BJP. B B Shivappa, the man who had built the party fortunes in Hassan got into fight with Yediyurappa over the position of the party chief. The battle ended with B B Shivappa being expelled with his proteges from the BJP. The party's base in Hassan withered away over the next few years, and the BJP has never been able to regain its influence again. In absence of B B Shivappa, Deve Gowda was able to poach on some of its more powerful leaders in the district, and A Manju deserted the party for the Congress. The BJP, by 20004, was a mere shell of its old self in the district.
However, the 1999 elections also had another side effect. Sonia Gandhi had contested from Bellary, and to pin her down to the constituency, the BJP imported Sushma Swaraj. The problem, however, was that the BJP had no base in the district. In order to overcome this deficiency, the party attracted a few people in the district. Among its more prominent catches were the Reddy brothers and Sriramulu. Sriramulu had joined the party a little earlier and he brought in the Reddy brothers, under the patronage of Ms. Swaraj. These people were rich and well connected, and having grown very rich on the iron ore rich region, were able to influence the party's fortunes in central Karnataka. However, their unsavoury connections would prove to be a bane in the long run for the party.
By 2004, the party was able to put its house in order, and put up a united and spectacular performance. It won about eighty seats, and won, not only in its old strongholds, but also expanded into old JD haunts. With its coffers full thanks to the Reddy brothers and Sriramulu, some clever poaching by Yediyurappa in the Hyderabad Karnataka region, and united efforts by all leaders, the BJP was able to sweep all of western Karnataka, make a dent in the Hyderabad Karnataka region, and finish as the largest party. However, there were two major flaws in the BJP diamond. The recent breakthroughs in the Hyderabad Karnataka region depended on the personal charisma of Yeddy and the money power of the Reddies. The organisational base of the BJP in these regions was still weak, and the leaders owed their rise to Yeddy. They were loyal to Yeddy, not to BJP. To make matters worse, these new leaders had little in common with the ideology of the BJP.
The alliance with Kumaraswamy was another tactical success, but strategic blunder. Because the BJP was tied down in an Alliance with Kumaraswamy, they could not expand in Deve Gowda's strongholds in Vokkaliga strongholds in the old Mysore. How does one go around canvassing against one's own government and Allies? The BJP, therefore, between 2006 and 2008, was unable to expand the party base in the old Mysore region.
By 2008, in fact, the party seemed to be on the wane everywhere,except in northern Karnataka. And the high water mark of eighty seats in 2004, seemed to be a distant goal. However, then came the betrayal of Deve Gowda and the fall of the Yediyurappa government. This was a golden opportunity for the BJP, and it managed to win over some powerful Vokkaliga leaders. Principal ones include G T Deve Gowda in Mysore, and Bacche Gowda in Hoskote. However, Deve Gowda was able to successfully transform it into a contest between Vokkaligas and the Lingayats (Kumaraswamy vs Yeddy was seen in these terms in the Vokkaliga belt). This was the reason why even Vokkaligas in the BJP were unable to make much headway in the region (G T Deve Gowda was defeated by a greenhorn in Hunsur, and Bacche Gowda turned into a one seat wonder in Hoskote. Further, they never got much importance in the Yeddy government. Bacche Gowda could do little because he had little influence in the party or government. Ashok did not shoulder too much burden, and he is too much a `city slicker').
The 2008 elections catapulted the BJP into power, but there were ominous signs in the aftermath of the victory. Once Yeddy came to power, he started cutting other Lingayat leaders to size, and gave no importance to the Vokkaligas (it did not suit his personal politics to have other powerful leaders). He got into a bitter fight with Basanagouda Patil Yatnal (after sabotaging Yatnal and making sure he lost in Nagthan),and the latter, a man who had done enormous amount of work in northern Karnataka, was expelled from the BJP to appease Yeddy. Another sacrifice to appease Yeddy was the sidelining of Jagadish Shettar (another very important leader from northern Karnataka). With both Shettar and Patil gone, Yeddy was the undisputed Lingayat leader. The dangers of this policy were already apparent in the 2009 Lok Sabha elections. Barely an year into power, the BJP victory margins, particularly in the Bombay Karnataka region, came down drastically, and the lack of Basanagouda Patil was felt heavily in Bombay Karnataka.
Yediyurappa initiated Operation Kamala to poach on leaders from the Congress and JD(S), but again, the leaders he got were exceptionally hard to stomach for anyone with half a sense of decency.
Yeddy also made sure no Vokkaliga leaders would rise to challenge him in any way. The Reddy brothers' connection to illegal mining made them persona non grata in the BJP, and the exit of Sreeramulu led to the destruction of the BJP influence in large regions of Hyderabad Karnataka and northern regions of old Mysore. Yeddy himself, after having destroyed all other leaders of significance in Karnataka BJP, deserted the party, taking most of its leadership in central Karnataka, and large regions of Hyderabad Karnataka and leaving it a shell of its former self.
For all practical purposes, the BJP is now limited to the coastal plains, Bangalore, and the sugar baron influenced regions of Bombay Karnataka (Belgaum, and Chikodi). Apart from that, there are a few urban strongholds, and a few leaders still remaining from the old times, particularly in Dharwad and Chikmaglur regions (which is why the BJP managed to hold its own in these two districts). This was the situation in which the BJP faced the 2013 elections, and was unsurprisingly, routed.
Simply put, the BJP is, more or less, in the same situation it was in 1994, but with a few minor changes. It has two advantages. First, it is well established in Karnataka as a party of significance. Second, it has the power of the sugar barons of Belgaum at its back. Hopefully, these men will prove loyal to the party.
Yediyurappa's return is touted as an answer, and to some extent, it is true. However, it is important to realise that his return is a short term solution for the current election, but in the long term, with his arrogance, nepotism and his propensity of ensuring the destruction of all other leaders of significance, he poses a serious challenge to the revival of the BJP in Karnataka. If Yediyurappa returns to the BJP, it will be tied to his goodwill (and as we have seen, it is not a good thing to depend on). Further, his performance as a CM was nothing to write home about. Whether people will vote for his chief ministership a second time remains to be seen. Yeddy has shown that he can be a spoiler, but nothing more. But his return, particularly in the coming elections, can help a great deal in assuaging Lingayat anger (where it exists), and help a few candidates, particularly in the Hyderabad Karnataka region, and central Karnataka.
What next?
That remains to be seen.
Thanks for your post.
Please let me/us know which were the 4 seats which bjp won in 91 lokasabha elctions. I am curious to know.
Also one nitpick, please do address the pontiff of siddaganag matha as Sri Sri Shivakumara swamy. When a person whose contribution to the society is much less as compared to siddaganaga matha (am talking about Sri ravishankar of aol) is addressed as sri sri always, shouldn't the siddaganga matha head not be given the due respects he merits.
Also i thought that Shivappa of hassan came into limelight much earlier. I think there was one election where even yeddyurappa had lost but shivappa had won. Also if am not wrong sadananda gowda was elected to assembly in 94 and not earlier. Even eshwarappa was elected in 89 but he defeated KH Srinivas who was a minister in Janata govt and not congress. Also weren't the sugar barons in north west karnataka earlier in congress/jd before making a switch to bjp. Anyways jarkiholi family is equally in all parties. Umesh katti, CM Udasi, AB Patil was in JD earlier
In 94,it wasn't just in south karnataka even in north karnataka JD won. Also devegowda-hegde combo outdid/checkmated bjp in 94. I remember reading somewhere that there were more lingayat mla's than okkaliga mla's in JD. Hence jh patel had to be made DyCM to placate them. It was rumored that devegowda's followers attacked hegde during meeting where cm candidate was to be finalised post election results were announced.
Also finally your opinion about yeddyurappa's return to bjp, i agree to it. It is but a short term solution. I see bjp being a leaderless party for some time to come. Atleast am not able to see any new leaders coming up from bjp. So maybe whatever gains they have made might lead to a loss if things continue the way they are currently in bjp.
Gunjur wrote:Nagesh avre,
Yes, sorry bjp had won bangalore rural/kanakapura seat in 98. But that was a short lived moment for bjp. IIRC then chandrashekar murthy who usually contested and won from congress hadn't contested. Was it premchandra sagar who had contested from congress( am sure he had once contested from congress, is it 96 or 98 not sure)?? Also in 98 from JD it was kumaraswamy who had contested and given the infighting in JD then between devegowda and JH Patel, they lost badly. Though he has been in bjp for some time now. Unfortunately he lost elections from rajarajeshwarinagar seat this time. He did have a stint in JD, though not sure was it JD or JD(s). Also if am not wrong he just recently joined congress.
It was Dr. Premachandra Sagar. The thing is - the JD(U) then had PGR Sindhia to help M Srinivas and he is a force to reckon with in Kanakapura. This was another leader who left the BJP-JD(U), ended up in strange places, before returning to JD(S).
Basically here i mean that what was JD vote in north karnataka gradually moved into hands of bjp.
This is true only in the regions (of North Karnataka) where the KRRS-BJP was strong. While the BJP was able to checkmate even powerful JD leaders like Meti, SS Patil, and Vimalabai Deshmukh in Bombay Karnataka, it was not able to finish off the JD(S) in Hyderabad Karnataka - the JD(S) is still a force to reckon with in these regions. The reason why the BJP was successful in the Bombay Karnataka region was that the KRRS and RSS backed BJP organisation had the ground level workers who could translate the loss of faith in JD into a direct gain for the BJP. This organisation is what is sustaining the BJP, even in the absence of Yeddy. The reason is because this crowd never was beholden to Yeddy. The KRRS in the region is completely integrated into the BJP and is keeping the BJP alive. The sugar barons came much later - UV Katti from JD and one of the Jarkiholis from the Congress. But these are the icing on the cake. They are not what is keeping the BJP alive. And this organisation is now eroding. Basanagouda Patil has been able to revive the JD(S) in large areas of Bijapur district. Given time, I suspect he will slowly grab the ground level organisation of the BJP and finish off the BJP in at least Bijapur and Bagalkot.
Basanagouda patil yetnal won in 99 from bijapura when the alliance between what was or would later be JD(u) was already in place with bjp formally or informally. That was the first time bjp won here untill then it was congress/jd affair(mostly congress). Anyways after his rather public fight with yeddyurappa he is now in JD(s) for sometime now. Babagouda patil won belgaavi only once, he had raitha sangha background if am not wrong. Even now suresh angadi who is belagaavi mp is winning because of bjp and not the other way round. Jarkiholi family a big name belagaavi district is equally present in all parties so as to minimise the damage. The basic point i am making here is disintegration of JD helped bjp in north karnataka where they occupied the non-congress vote/space which was in hands of erstwhile Janta dal.
Basanagouda Patil had won for the Assembly in 1994. He won for the Parliament in 1999, for the first time. But he was not allowed to contest in 1998 by Yeddy (Basanagouda Patil Managuli was fielded by the BJP in 98 and lost). In 1996, Yatnal had fought and finished a close second behind BR Patil of the JD.
As for Babagouda Patil, his entry and victory made the sugar barons sit up and take notice of the BJP. Till then, the sugar barons were spread between the JD and the Congress. Babagouda Patil's KRRS organisation, Hegde's decimation of the JD, and Basanagouda Patil's spadework in Belgaum were what changed the BJP's fortunes in the district. All three were vital, and even if one of the three were missing, the BJP would not have been able to win (at least, not continuously from 2004). Babagouda Patil's entry gave the BJP a handle in the farmers' organisations in Bombay Karnataka.
But in south karnataka, they couldn't do so. Actually even in south karnataka, JD(s) was washed away in 99 elections in south karnataka. If not for untimely death of chandrashekar murthy who was the sitting mp of kanakpura, devegowda fought a do or die battle during the by-election and won. This ensured that Jd(s) bounced back and showed its best performance in 2004 elections(am talking of JD(s) and not erstwhile JD.)
In south Karnataka, the BJP never had a large scale organisation capable of translating the JD's loss into its gain. If I were a BJP leader, I would happily offer a plum cabinet posting to K S Puttannaiah, if he would merge the KRRS into the BJP. It is not the leaders of the KRRS that are important (frankly, Puttannaiah is replaceable). It is their organisation. With the BJP's resources, and the KRRS organisation, it should have been possible to completely neutralise the JD(S) in Mandya and Mysore districts. In fact, the merger of the KRRS with the BJP is desirable for another reason. The farmer organisations can complement the RSS with a great deal of support and broaden the horizons of Hindutva. I can see nothing incompatible between the KRRS and the Hindutva of the RSS. The farmers should be the core of Hindutva.
KRRS though a strong grassroot organisation won assembly election in 2013, even in 2008 it was jd(s) which won in melukote.
Particularly post-liberalisation, the KRRS is suffering from a lack of resources (they simply do not have the kind of money Deve Gowda and Congress have). Also, the farmers need better technology. The BJP, with its industry contacts and its greater resources, could offer the KRRS that. A merger of the KRRS into the BJP would be a win for both sides.
WRT okkaliga leadership in bjp, each person has different opinion. In this case we differ. I still feel whether its sadanandgowda or ashok, they don't have it in them to build party in south karnataka. I didn't say that shobha would build bjp in 1 year or 3 years, but over a period of time she would have done a better job compared to sadanandgowda or ashok. As i said we have different opinions here.
It is true that neither Sadananda Gowda nor Ashok have party building capacities. But, IMO, neither has Shobha. And, in any case, Yeddy would never accept a Vokkaliga challenger to his leadership.
Last edited by Shanmukh on 15 Sep 2013 22:29, edited 1 time in total.
Gunjur wrote:
Please let me/us know which were the 4 seats which bjp won in 91 lokasabha elctions. I am curious to know.
Bidar (Ramachandra Veerappa), Mangalore (V Dhananjaya Kumar), Tumkur (S Mallikarjunaiah) and Bangalore South (Venkatagiri Gowda).
Also one nitpick, please do address the pontiff of siddaganag matha as Sri Sri Shivakumara swamy. When a person whose contribution to the society is much less as compared to siddaganaga matha (am talking about Sri ravishankar of aol) is addressed as sri sri always, shouldn't the siddaganga matha head not be given the due respects he merits.
Sorry. I was being colloquial. It is fixed now.
Also i thought that Shivappa of hassan came into limelight much earlier. I think there was one election where even yeddyurappa had lost but shivappa had won.
You are thinking of 1999, when Yeddy lost in Shikaripura. Shivappa had won in Sakaleshpura. They fought over the post of the party chief.
Also if am not wrong sadananda gowda was elected to assembly in 94 and not earlier.
Fixed. I was thinking Rama Bhat (who used to win from Puttur - Sadananda Gowda is his protege). Typed the wrong name by mistake.
Even eshwarappa was elected in 89 but he defeated KH Srinivas who was a minister in Janata govt and not congress. Also weren't the sugar barons in north west karnataka earlier in congress/jd before making a switch to bjp. Anyways jarkiholi family is equally in all parties
KH Srinivas has been a Congressman most of his life. He may have been in JD at some time, but for the most part, he has been in Congress.
In 94,it wasn't just in south karnataka even in north karnataka JD won. Also devegowda-hegde combo outdid/checkmated bjp in 94. I remember reading somewhere that there were more lingayat mla's than okkaliga mla's in JD. Hence jh patel had to be made DyCM to placate them. It was rumored that devegowda's followers attacked hegde during meeting where cm candidate was to be finalised post election results were announced.
All true. But the reason why the JD was able to benefit was because there was no other alternative to the Congress. The BJP simply did not have the organisation in most districts. The BJP benefited from the anti Congress wave where it was present. Otherwise (which, unfortunately, was most of Karnataka - both north and south), the benefit went to the JD.
Also finally your opinion about yeddyurappa's return to bjp, i agree to it. It is but a short term solution. I see bjp being a leaderless party for some time to come. Atleast am not able to see any new leaders coming up from bjp. So maybe whatever gains they have made might lead to a loss if things continue the way they are currently in bjp.
The BJP simply bleeds too many leaders to other parties. I am not sure what is wrong, but the loss of this many leaders (and particularly people of the stature of Shivappa and Basanagouda Patil Yatnal) should not occur in any properly managed party. Is it just Yeddy or is it something else?
nageshks wrote:Gunjur avare
It was Dr. Premachandra Sagar. The thing is - the JD(U) then had PGR Sindhia to help M Srinivas and he is a force to reckon with in Kanakapura. This was another leader who left the BJP-JD(U), ended up in strange places, before returning to JD(S).
Yes premchandra sagar of Dayanand sagar engineering college, sagar apollo hospital group. his brother(?) hemachandra sagar contested from bjp ticket in chickpete assembly seat in 2008 and won. Usually he was seen besides yeddyurappa. But this time he didn't even contest elections.
WRT PGR scindya, he went across all parties before fianlly returning to jd(s). Though i don't think he can take on DiKeShi in kanakpura.
nageshks wrote:
This is true only in the regions (of North Karnataka) where the KRRS-BJP was strong. While the BJP was able to checkmate even powerful JD leaders like Meti, SS Patil, and Vimalabai Deshmukh in Bombay Karnataka, it was not able to finish off the JD(S) in Hyderabad Karnataka - the JD(S) is still a force to reckon with in these regions. The reason why the BJP was successful in the Bombay Karnataka region was that the KRRS and RSS backed BJP organisation had the ground level workers who could translate the loss of faith in JD into a direct gain for the BJP. This organisation is what is sustaining the BJP, even in the absence of Yeddy. The reason is because this crowd never was beholden to Yeddy. The KRRS in the region is completely integrated into the BJP and is keeping the BJP alive. The sugar barons came much later - UV Katti from JD and one of the Jarkiholis from the Congress. But these are the icing on the cake. They are not what is keeping the BJP alive. And this organisation is now eroding. Basanagouda Patil has been able to revive the JD(S) in large areas of Bijapur district. Given time, I suspect he will slowly grab the ground level organisation of the BJP and finish off the BJP in at least Bijapur and Bagalkot.
In NE karantaka, jd(s) currently is strong only in certain seats only, once former leaders of JD like vaijainath patil left jd(s), they have lost their strength there. Vaijainath patil is currently in kjp or is he gone looking for greener pastures. This time even raju gowda(aka narasimha nayak) from surapura also lost on jd(s) ticket. Currently they are present in certain seats only.
WRT sugar barons, neither jd(s) nor jd(u) couldn't retain any of them, they left for greener pasture whether it's congress or bjp. Anyways as usual all these people have family members in all parties so that they always enjoy power whichever party comes.
nageshks wrote:Basanagouda Patil had won for the Assembly in 1994. He won for the Parliament in 1999, for the first time. But he was not allowed to contest in 1998 by Yeddy (Basanagouda Patil Managuli was fielded by the BJP in 98 and lost). In 1996, Yatnal had fought and finished a close second behind BR Patil of the JD.
As for Babagouda Patil, his entry and victory made the sugar barons sit up and take notice of the BJP. Till then, the sugar barons were spread between the JD and the Congress. Babagouda Patil's KRRS organisation, Hegde's decimation of the JD, and Basanagouda Patil's spadework in Belgaum were what changed the BJP's fortunes in the district. All three were vital, and even if one of the three were missing, the BJP would not have been able to win (at least, not continuously from 2004). Babagouda Patil's entry gave the BJP a handle in the farmers' organisations in Bombay Karnataka.
Not sure if yetnal can recreate any magic for jd(s) or not. But babagouda patil is a mystery. Out of nowhere he came and won in 99. Was made minister as well in NDA as karnataka sent very few bjp mp's in 99. After that he is not to be heard at all. By any chance you know where he is now??
nageshks wrote:In south Karnataka, the BJP never had a large scale organisation capable of translating the JD's loss into its gain. If I were a BJP leader, I would happily offer a plum cabinet posting to K S Puttannaiah, if he would merge the KRRS into the BJP. It is not the leaders of the KRRS that are important (frankly, Puttannaiah is replaceable). It is their organisation. With the BJP's resources, and the KRRS organisation, it should have been possible to completely neutralise the JD(S) in Mandya and Mysore districts. In fact, the merger of the KRRS with the BJP is desirable for another reason. The farmer organisations can complement the RSS with a great deal of support and broaden the horizons of Hindutva. I can see nothing incompatible between the KRRS and the Hindutva of the RSS. The farmers should be the core of Hindutva.
KRRS is under people who are socialists. Not sure if they can align themselves with a right wing party.
Gunjur wrote:
In NE karantaka, jd(s) currently is strong only in certain seats only, once former leaders of JD like vaijainath patil left jd(s), they have lost their strength there. Vaijainath patil is currently in kjp or is he gone looking for greener pastures. This time even raju gowda(aka narasimha nayak) from surapura also lost on jd(s) ticket. Currently they are present in certain seats only.
True. But the BJP has not been able to extinguish the JD(S) as thoroughly as it did in Bombay Karnataka. The more worrisome bit is the fact that the JD(S), even in seats where it did not win, often ended up second. The BJP has often been reduced to third, or even fourth in many places in Gulbarga and Bidar.
Not sure if yetnal can recreate any magic for jd(s) or not. But babagouda patil is a mystery. Out of nowhere he came and won in 99. Was made minister as well in NDA as karnataka sent very few bjp mp's in 99. After that he is not to be heard at all. By any chance you know where he is now??
I made a mistake here. Not too sure where Babagouda Patil is now.
(previously I said Babagouda Patil was dead).
KRRS is under people who are socialists. Not sure if they can align themselves with a right wing party.
The KRRS members of north Karnataka have been very well integrated into the BJP. Don't see why those of south Karnataka cannot be integrated. In any case, there are plenty of socialists in the BJP, even now.
Last edited by Shanmukh on 16 Sep 2013 00:24, edited 1 time in total.
nageshks wrote:Gunjur-avare,
KH Srinivas has been a Congressman most of his life. He may have been in JD at some time, but for the most part, he has been in Congress.
Even in 2001/2002 when jd(s) was in its nadir, he was seen standing next to devegowda in various public functions?? Don't know when/where he began his political career but was in daLa for some time. This time he was in kjp, anyways not big guy. No one will remember him.
nageshks wrote:
All true. But the reason why the JD was able to benefit was because there was no other alternative to the Congress. The BJP simply did not have the organisation in most districts. The BJP benefited from the anti Congress wave where it was present. Otherwise (which, unfortunately, was most of Karnataka - both north and south), the benefit went to the JD.
Basically over a period of time (more so from 80's onwards) janata dal had garnered the non-congress space in karnataka. So it was but natural for JD to take benefit of any anti-congress wave. It's something like in rajasthan, if bjp wins, congress looses or if congress wins bjp looses. There is no space for any 3rd formation.
I don't think any state has 3 == players. No state can afford/entertain 3 players. So in way karnataka has to move to bi-polar polity, else when all 3 players gain nearly same seats as happened in 2004, it leads to instability. Now bihar looks interessting with bjp/laloo/nitish fighting it out. One has to loose, as no state can have 3 players battling it out.
nageshks wrote:
The BJP simply bleeds too many leaders to other parties. I am not sure what is wrong, but the loss of this many leaders (and particularly people of the stature of Shivappa and Basanagouda Patil Yatnal) should not occur in any properly managed party. Is it just Yeddy or is it something else?
Actually compared to JD, bjp is far better. Split in JD more or less diminshed the party forever(?). But bjp has a chance to grow i mean regain its potency in karnataka. Yeddyurappa may have pi**ed off yetnal or shivappa but post 2004 he did bring in other people who can get votes locally i mean most of the people who did join bjp came in his camp. Yes there are exceptions like balachandra jarkiholi. He did build/nurture many leaders under him. People like CM udasi (who came from JD) followed him to kjp even though they knew kjp has a small shelf life.
Maybe lingayats in bjp will come under banner of vijay sankeshwar (of VRL fame) post yeddyurappa. As i mentioned earlier, no new leaders are coming from bjp who can take on the mantle and keep bjp going post yeddyurappa. Actually in many ways he himself is a spent force now, but still he does command some respect among tier-2 and tier -3 leaders. He is needed to shield and weather out leaders/cadres in this downtime period of bjp, so that once this storm has passed new leadership can take bjp forward.
nageshks wrote:
Babagouda Patil is dead. He died several years ago.
Ohh Sorry never knew this.
nageshks wrote:
The KRRS members of north Karnataka have been very well integrated into the BJP. Don't see why those of south Karnataka cannot be integrated. In any case, there are plenty of socialists in the BJP, even now.
Who are the socialists in bjp?? Atleast from ideology point of view none of top leaders like yeddyurappa, ananthkumar, eshwarappa, shettar, sadanandagowda, ashok, suresh kumar, etc are socialists. Even if there are, what are they doing in bjp??or why is bjp having them??
nageshks wrote:
Babagouda Patil is dead. He died several years ago.
Ohh Sorry never knew this.
Just a minute. I may have made a mistake with Babagouda Patil. Prof. Nanjundaswamy (Head of KRRS) is dead. Not too sure about Babagouda Patil.
nageshks wrote:
The KRRS members of north Karnataka have been very well integrated into the BJP. Don't see why those of south Karnataka cannot be integrated. In any case, there are plenty of socialists in the BJP, even now.
Who are the socialists in bjp?? Atleast from ideology point of view none of top leaders like yeddyurappa, ananthkumar, eshwarappa, shettar, sadanandagowda, ashok, suresh kumar, etc are socialists. Even if there are, what are they doing in bjp??or why is bjp having them??
Not sure about the top leadership, but plenty in the ranks. Murugesh Nirani, Govind Karjol, M Srinivas, Shankaralinge Gowda - all come from a socialist background.
and later on Bairam's son, Abdul Rahim Khan-i-khana, got an important assignment in Akbar's administration and was one of the 'Nau-rattans' (Nine Gems) of Akbar.
