Future Strategic Scenario for the Indian Subcontinent -II

brihaspati · Post by **brihaspati** » 12 Jan 2013 23:08

ravi_g wrote:
brihaspati wrote:If the regime has to be restrained, and therefore IA has to be restrained forever - no other option will remain other than raising a third completely deniable force. But then of course neither group would like it - for it means arming a section of the nation neither is comfortable about arming.
Wanted to put in a longish post but at this rate I would not even get to say the minimum I want to.

brihaspati ji, the hard arming is not a big deal. Unfortunately it is only a deterrent not the real 'tool' at best usable in Maoist infestation kind of situations. Besides IA at least till Col. level is still very much a citizens army. In fact even at staff level you find good officers and the governance structure too has more then enough Indic options.

The solution to my mind still remains the arming of our people with correct information. 1 billion hindus at one place make for a very potent force. Unfortunately right now we have a situation where a bunch of lazy people &/or vested interests just go on to highjack the agenda with shenanigans that are designed to hoodwink our people. The 'solutions to making India safe' thread is one recent example, where it was clearly discernible. I usually find small time packets during the day which I utilize to type out my concerns here but the most important sections of the forum are available only on loging on. So most lurkers never get to know what is going on. At one point I was thinking of going on to Thobda-pothi but that has a strange format where one feels like one is speaking to himself. With a little coordination, a small force of clear minded people can dominate the Social media. Besides social media is already dominated by internet hindus so the only real thing remaining is joining RSS kind of organisations. Dekhte hein.

I have my reservations from seeing how the coercive forces have generally behaved, and I have also seen how political parties have behaved - from the British to current times. There are reasons for me to premise that every such institution and organization - is penetrated at the highest level by persons with connections to historical, and transnational imperialist - religious+financial+political+military+mafia networks.

Because of the peaceful transition that did not overthrow the British state institutional structures in India, none of the institutions can be relied upon to take up a position that will be clearly in favour of the "Indic". I agree that there are and will be many genuine people around in those, who think or favour what we hope for. But they will find themselves betrayed, facing firing squads, or used to damage the very cause they support - at the crucial points. This was the corrupting and foreign-licking, or rather totalitarian-bootlicking inducing policy and method of the Brits.

It might be better to start from the scratch. Every political party around, and all the institutions and wings of the state - will have informers at each of the levels, more so the higher you go.

If the gov and army allows the formation of a third citizens/volunteer force that does not exist on paper, and completely deniable [even undergoing tube-trimming to give authenticity] to be unleashed on Pakis - you think the informers will not pass the info on to their transnational handlers? Or the political masters will not be worried about their own gaddi - they will help to scuttle the force themselves - and what better method than having them betrayed on foreign soil : elimination of personal power threat combined with pretended patriotism.

member_20317 · Post by **member_20317** » 13 Jan 2013 18:28

brihaspati ji, a particular taste 'cornflake' has been imparted on a force fed diet of state sponsored hypocrisy. The well fed and the ones with better access to information are now tentative about 'sattu'. There is a whole GDP logic to 'cornflakes' now. And business rationale of a sweet self-poisoning is undeniable (from the level of gutka to the level of china brand economics).

In such a situation what is your suggestion regarding the third volunteer force that can be build ground up and if I may guess without government support or dependence. I mean what is it that you would want attacked and in what priority. The Agenda for the time being would suffice.

You do mention that something that can be unleashed on Pakis. But that has its own peculiarities which restricts the targeting only to a small sliver of the opponent without much hope of finding the final solution.

I mean I have thought about these things but I have always ended up with only one way out. Our people need to dominate the politics+economics+military of the world while having a strong sense of self which is reflected in a retelling and relearning of the narrative. Right now it is exactly the opposite.

Abhi_G · Post by **Abhi_G** » 14 Jan 2013 12:57

Brihaspati,

pliss to check burkha version.

RajeshA · Post by **RajeshA** » 14 Jan 2013 14:28

ravi_g ji, brihaspati garu,

A friend of mine, who is training as a diver was telling me how two of her teeth "exploded" because the air she was inhaling down under the water was at a higher pressure, and that air managed to get into her teeth through some micro-holes which the dentist had overlooked, and when she surfaced the pressure difference just broke her teeth.

By the way, teeth are the hardest part of the body!

And then there are teeth that just break up due to caries, if they are not brushed properly by the person or attended to by a dentist regularly.

RamaY · Post by **RamaY** » 14 Jan 2013 21:30

It is important to note that France is able to enter and conduct a military operation in Mali but India cannot do the same w.r.t Maldives.

It is the C-system congress parties, more than the Ummah, that is forcing Indian muslims to be part of Ummah. This ensured that India doesnt protect its interests in any area that has even 1 muslim.

brihaspati · Post by **brihaspati** » 15 Jan 2013 02:37

ravi_g avare,
its a chicken and egg problem if you go by the "sufficient world domination economically/militarily" etc route. The very obstacles towards gaining that sort of dominance is the rashtryia weakness for foreign ideologies as being supposedly the most "defining/contributing" meme of modern India.

Second part of the weakness is the peaceful and unbroken continuity of colonial structures - thereby continuity in recruitment of "personal loyalty to supreme powers unaccountable to the people" - and thereby possible continuity of interfaces to successor regimes of the colonials, at the deepest levels.

Naxals and Islamists want a complete overthrow of the state - because they understand the game of state power, better than "Hindus" do. However a crucial flaw in Naxalite and Islamist understanding about the nature of state power - is that state power is dependent on identification by the majority - with the state.

The primary process of a regime going down is the alienation, consciously by the people themselves - from the existing state. No overthrow - but alienation. This process is accelerated, if either by plan or by accident, issues come up before the public imagination where the "state" is forced to choose sides - and where the choice has been reduced strictly to two. When the state chooses "against" the people, that is the point where the state starts to get delegitimized.

Two examples - one was MKG's choice of the issue of salt. The existing state was forced to choose sides and thereby reveal their disjunction from the people.

Over the Delhi-rape issue, the existing state was forced to choose sides again, but did it on the sides of over-obsession with preventing personal images of individual politicians from being tarnished. In this case, actually, the state bracketed the youth dissenters with Maoists or "Dalits" (some loudmouth spit this out thereby revealing the real fears and underlying hatred of any identity that could challenge their personality cult based power - a reminder to "Muslim", "Dalit" and "Naxal" power aspirants, that the regime's deepest thoughts about you all is fear+hatred, regardless of whatever sweet nothings they coo into your ears!).

This showed up that where personal image and power was concerned - the dominants of the state apparatus would choose that personal-image+power against feelings of "people". It was, to be fair, a lost case either way - even if some of the infamous political spontaneity showed on occasions by our future monarch, had been unleashed, even in pretension, in favour of the dissenters. This shows his lack of political foresight - or equivalently that of the puppet masters behind the screen.

The Stalinist model of the real power hiding behind high walls and inscrutable fencing, so that any blames for negative fallouts is taken out on loyal/submissive supposedly "deviant from the true path" partymen/women who are solely to blame for the "excesses" caused by a failure to understand the "true" meaning of what the divine leader really "meant" - does not work for India for long. The basic underlying force of India is "radical" and non-stationary - even if a host of religious leaders/sadhus/sants/mohants/gurus might jump in protest. It is they - the modern day gurus - who fail to grasp the real spirit of India. It is they who act as adjuncts of state and repressive regimes - internal or foreign, by casting Indian roots as "tolerant of everything", oh-so-philosophical and obsessed with attaining "moksha" detached from the reality of political power and statecraft.

Because our theologian+politician+comprador axis appear cyclically successful, they begin to believe in their own propaganda about the nature of Indian civilization. They fail to see the periodic churning that comes and throws away old orders, old understandings, and corrupted delusions of power. There is the riddle they have to understand. The concept of avatara - the violent chastizer and washerman of accumulated filth - is actually a poetic expression of the hearts desire, the underlying vision of the people and the civilization.

Avatar is the collective popular visualization of the unspoken, even unaware desire for revolution - that lies deep within the heart of the "Indic". The passive, the temple-bound, the ritual-immersed, and post-death-life obsessed Indic is the outside clothes, with which he or she tames the inner spirit awaiting the right moment when collective energy can effectively sweep away all that he or she individually cannot.

Becoming Indic, wherever you are born, is about realizing this very human dynamic. How the picture is painted for outward consumption, does not matter.

Agnimitra · Post by **Agnimitra** » 15 Jan 2013 03:09

^^ B ji,

I believe internal change must be revolutionary, but external adjustment and customization is best done gradually, with, both, initiative and patience -- and by dovetailing the useful and relevant defining memes in the outgoing order.

brihaspati wrote:its a chicken and egg problem if you go by the "sufficient world domination economically/militarily" etc route. The very obstacles towards gaining that sort of dominance is the rashtryia weakness for foreign ideologies as being supposedly the most "defining/contributing" meme of modern India.

Second part of the weakness is the peaceful and unbroken continuity of colonial structures -

If a new Indic order can wrest power, they would do well to contain the central hard core of the old order, while also nurturing and fixing their gaze on what they consider to be the 'defining/contributing meme of modern India. I compare it to Aurangzeb's treatment of Shah Jehan. He contained Shah Jehan by house arrest, and placed him right opposite and with a sole view of his favorite defining meme that he had built for his foreign Persian (non-Rajput) wife, the Taj Mahal. (Of course he later failed spectacularly in the iteration he tried to engineer because it went against the very soul of the Indic people he ruled).

I sense this is already happening, with Modi showcasing economic development, the rule of law and futuristic innovation as defining memes of his own movement. I think apart from the real nation-building significance of this, it is also important in assuaging the fears and stroking the cornered egos and intellects of the old order: winning converts, persuading skeptics, cornering hardcore types, and taking the moral high ground based on their own definition of modernity and morality.

Moreover, by creating a futuristic vision and letting its technological infrastructure materialize on the ground, this new iteration forces Indic revival to materialize as a creative impulse, rather than as a throwback "golden age" or "Caliphatist" syndrome. Thus, this tactic and approach serves multiple purposes.

devesh · Post by **devesh** » 15 Jan 2013 03:35

Carl ji,

the "Caliphatist" approach will never materialize in the Indic. depending on how the nation progresses, and to what extent the Islamics and others stoop, the Indic might be forced to unleash ruthlessness to the point of being vicious, but the end goal will not materialize in the "Caliphate" direction. our imagination is different.

but I agree with brihaspati ji on the basic point. in all revolutions, the previous regime's remnants are wiped out to a large extent. India didn't go through that process in 1947. and some parts of India have never gone through that process in a long long time, and there has been a continuous regime-apparatus-intact transfer of power all the way from the 13th century's initial Jihadi enterprises down to the British "enlightenment". the junk and filth needs to be gotten rid of.

brihaspati · Post by **brihaspati** » 17 Jan 2013 16:37

Qwadri is an attempt by the London-Washington axis to try and stabilize Pakistan under an Islamist regime which
(1) would apparently be more under their direct control
(2) which can be given an image globally to be a "modernized" and "acceptably toned down" version of Islam

They fear that without such a stabilizing motion, the resulting Caliphate could become totally out of control like Iran and Afghanistan. They have previously allowed semi-home grown caliphs from the Islamic zones to come to power, but all of them have proved turncoats after some time.

They are hoping to do it better this time with Qadri. Quadri has however dropped enough scattered hints in his various works from the 1980-190's stretch that he - under ll his "modern", liberal, "progressive", "sufi" shine -

(a) believes in the single political unit interpretation of the concept of the ummah
(b) believes in the concept of an Islamic state with Muslim majority under Islamic law
(c) his fundamental and original obsession in islam was the punishments/penalties
(d) he sees himself as a kind of new "interpreter" of Islam for the "modern period".

Qadri's connections go into very similar profiles that - even though disparately - but in a common underlying politically astute "modern" reaction to non-Islam - branching both into Egyptian theologians of the Al Azhar den, and the Sufi roots used by Khomeini in his pre-Ayatollate stage.

The west, knowingly or otherwise - is creating a new Khomeini for the subcontinent. It could not be initiated directly from Londonistan or Washingtonabad. Canada, the homebase of experiments like Khalistanis, would be a good neutral starting point from within the inner commonwealth.

brihaspati · Post by **brihaspati** » 22 Jan 2013 04:34

The first judgment has been awarded in the 71-war crimes tribunal in BD. This guy was operating as a Maulana, and he used to regularly appear on BD satellite TV channels as a religious "star" even a couple of years ago.

According to activists and investigators from the civilian side who have maintained the struggle to bring the BD jihadis to justice, he was responsible for hundreds more. The Jamaat has been successful in lobbying Londonistan, and associated Human Rights selective "watches" to pass on their own activities to kill or bribe or threaten potential witnesses.

The targets were primarily "Hindu" - Hindu women, men, children. They are obviously - "marginalized", weaker sections of society - evident from their appearance, background, and what we know of their circumstances. However, lists of witnesses submitted to the tribunal used to be immediately passed on to Jamaati and islamist goons to take "proper" action.

This merely confirms what I have long maintained, that the BD state machinery and regime infrastructure - is dominated by Islamists. This is not surprising. What however is worth considering is the surmise that

According to an official at Detective Branch of Police, Azad fled to India, crossing the border in Dinajpur illegally -- without a passport or a visa.
Some sources suggest that he is now in Karachi of Pakistan.

(http://www.thedailystar.net/newDesign/n ... nid=266151)

Is it possible for any individual to cross over from the Indian side of the border into Pakistan, without the deep-down omniscient intel agencies knowing about it? especially when they can sniff out alleged saffron terrorists from just cycles or from gaps of over two or more years on the remotest and flimsiest of connections?

Is only BD intel responsible for the "lapse" or is it a transnational lapse? Is Indian subcontinent now a unified intel/gov/state-machinery network that assures protection of Islamist animals by moving them around into safer corners and pockets away from retribution?

brihaspati · Post by **brihaspati** » 25 Jan 2013 21:20

http://www.france24.com/en/20120929-how ... bism-egypt
How Saudi petrodollars fuel rise of Salafism

Since the 2011 Arab revolts, a loose network of underground zealots has evolved into a potent and highly vocal force. Behind the remarkable rise of Salafism lies the world’s leading producer of oil – and extremist Islam: Saudi Arabia.

By Marc DAOU

When protesters incensed by an anti-Muslim video scaled the walls of the US embassy in Cairo on September 11, tearing down the Stars and Stripes, a black flag could be seen floating above the battered compound. From Sanaa, in Yemen, to Libya’s Benghazi, the same black banner, emblem of the Salafists, soon became a ubiquitous sight as anti-US protests spread like wildfire across the Arab world. The 2011 Arab uprisings have served the Salafists well. With the old dictators gone, a once subterranean network of hardliners has sprung into prominence – funded by a wealthy Gulf patron locked in a post-Arab Spring rivalry with a fellow Gulf monarchy.

The ‘predecessors’

A puritanical branch of Islam, Salafism advocates a strict, literalist interpretation of the Koran and a return to the practices of the “Salaf” (the predecessors), as the Prophet Mohammed and his disciples are known. While Salafist groups can differ widely, from the peaceful, quietist kind to the more violent clusters, it is the latter who have attracted most attention in recent months.

In Libya and Mali, radical Salafists have been busy destroying ancient shrines built by more moderate groups, such as Sufi Muslims. Fellow extremists in Tunisia have tried to silence secular media and destroy “heretical” artwork. And the presence of Salafist fighting units in Syria has been largely documented. Less well known is who is paying for all this – and why.

‘Export-Wahhabism’

For regional experts, diplomats and intelligence services, the answer to the first question lies in the seemingly endless flow of petrodollars coming from oil-rich Saudi Arabia. “There is plenty of evidence pointing to the fact that Saudi money is financing the various Salafist groups,” said Samir Amghar, author of “Le salafisme d’aujourd’hui. Mouvements sectaires en Occident” (Contemporary Salafism: Sectarian movements in the West).

According to Antoine Basbous, who heads the Paris-based Observatory of Arab Countries, “the Salafism we hear about in Mali and North Africa is in fact the export version of Wahhabism,” a conservative branch of Sunni Islam actively promoted and practised by Saudi Arabia’s ruling family. Since the 1970s oil crises provided the ruling House of Saud with a seemingly endless supply of cash, “the Saudis have been financing [Wahhabism] around the world to the tune of several million euros,” Basbous told FRANCE 24.

Opaque channels

Not all of the cash comes from Saudi state coffers. “Traditionally, the money is handed out by members of the royal family, businessmen or religious leaders, and channelled via Muslim charities and humanitarian organizations,” said Karim Sader, a political analyst who specializes in the Gulf states, in an interview with FRANCE 24.

Until the Arab Spring revolts upended the region’s political landscape, these hidden channels enabled the Salafists’ Saudi patrons to circumvent the authoritarian regimes who were bent on crushing all Islamist groups. These were the same opaque channels that allegedly supplied arms to extremist groups, particularly in Pakistan and Afghanistan, according to Western intelligence officials.

Free education

Other, slightly less shadowy recipients of Saudi petrodollars include the numerous religious institutions built around the Arab world to preach Wahhabi Islam, as well as the growing list of Saudi satellite channels that provide a platform for radical Salafist preachers. A large share of the booty also goes to Arab students attending religious courses at the kingdom’s universities in Medina, Riyadh and the Mecca.

“Most of the students at Medina University are foreigners who benefit from generous scholarships handed out by Saudi patrons, as well as free accommodation and plane tickets,” said Amghar. “Once they have graduated, the brightest are hired by the Saudi monarchy, while the rest return to their respective countries to preach Wahhabi Islam”. According to Amghar, the members of France’s nascent Salafist movement follow a similar path.

Direct funding

Exporting its own brand of Islam is not the only item on Saudi Arabia’s foreign policy agenda. “While they see themselves as the guardians of Islamic doctrine and have always generously financed Muslim missionaries, the Saudis’ priority is not to ‘salafise’ the Muslim world,” explained Amghar. “Their real aim is to consolidate their political and ideological influence by establishing a network of supporters capable of defending the kingdom’s strategic and economic interests.”

Since last year’s Arab revolutions, these supporters have benefited from more direct – and politically motivated – funding. “With the region’s former dictators out of the way, Salafist groups have evolved into well-established parties benefiting from more official Saudi aid,” said Sader, pointing to the spectacular rise of Egypt’s al-Nour party, which picked up a surprising 24% of the vote in January’s parliamentary polls.

“The Saudis were genuinely surprised by the Arab Spring revolts,” said Mohamed-Ali Adraoui, a political analyst who specialises in the Muslim world. “Riyadh’s response was to back certain Salafist groups (…) so that it may gain further clout in their respective countries,” Adraoui told FRANCE 24.

Gulf rivalries

The Saudi strategy is similar to that adopted by its arch Gulf rival Qatar – a smaller but equally oil-rich kingdom – in its dealings with the Muslim Brotherhood, the other great beneficiary of the Arab Spring. “When it comes to financing Islamist parties, there is intense competition between Qatar and Saudi Arabia,” said Sader.

brihaspati · Post by **brihaspati** » 25 Jan 2013 22:19

http://www.memri.org/report/en/0/0/0/0/0/0/6904.htm
The Role Of The Mumbai-Based Raza Academy In Promoting Islamism
By: Dr. Mirza A. B. Baig*

Here is the peaceful Sunni - Barelvi - Sufi connection. If anyone is likely to get funding from the western side of the Gulf, then these guys should be an attractive interim compromise, until more purere forms can be introduced.

Samudragupta · Post by **Samudragupta** » 26 Jan 2013 17:14

B Ji who is funding the Barelvis? certainly not Iran and KSA? may be KuwaitQatar????

brihaspati · Post by **brihaspati** » 27 Jan 2013 09:57

Samudragupta wrote:B Ji who is funding the Barelvis? certainly not Iran and KSA? may be KuwaitQatar????

The Barelvis provide an interesting snapshot of the historical process by which Sunnis took over Sufism. The founder of the Raza group actually was a "puritan" Sunni denouncing many aspects of the Sufi representation of Islamism. But at the moment, the Barelvis are engaged in an internal organizational civil war. This represents the attempt by Gulf forces to control the network in India - which in turn has been fighting the other Arab leaning schools based in UP - the Nadiad and Deobandi Ulema (who have their own mutual fight over Indian umma). The Saudi Islamist groups - dominate the Bahraini/Dubai/Omani islamists - and they seem to have decided at the higher levels to "invest" in India as their own little strategic depth plan in case their north+west becomes too hot.

With a pliant and Islamophile Indian media/politics, Dawood controlling large parts of entry-exit flows on the west-central coast, they reasonably believe they can expand.

Do not get sucked in by the propaganda of Sunni-Sufi Barelvi-Deobandi strife etc. Its intra-mafia competition for control over the juice, has absolutely no impact on the life outside the mafia from which the juice is extracted.

brihaspati · Post by **brihaspati** » 05 Feb 2013 04:02

A very long time ago, I had proposed, that intel and undercover networks of crime, biz, politicos on the entire subcontinent - carry over in their basic infrastructure from the time of the Brit use, penetration and construction of them.

Whenever the complex shifting, overlapping, and undercover extremist, especially Islamist/jihadist violence is explored, one way or the other some connection to the British undercover structures turn up.

Murky death of MI6 ally who paid Linda Norgrove’s abductor
http://milesamoore.com/2011/12/04/murky ... -abductor/

Lal's background and career, unqiuely draws on the possible interconnections between ISI, UK's military intel, drug mafia and transnational syndicates operating in and out of the subcontinent - and the local, biz and criminal network interfaces.

Cameron's hosting of the "Taleb urging" conference at London, might be the most appropriate thing to do. They might actually have a finger in the pie of both the ISI and the Talebs.

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 07 Feb 2013 00:54

A ~ ten year old book am reading:

On the edge of a new century by Eric Hobsbawm written before 9/11:

One review:

KIRKUS REVIEW
At the brink of the millennium, socialist historian Hobsbawm examines major trends in international politics and world events.

Hobsbawm's The Age of Extremes (1996) was hailed for the author's analysis of what he termed `the short century`—the years from 1914 (the start of WW I) to 1991 (the collapse of the Soviet Union). Here he continues his sweeping yet intensive study of what shapes modern civilization. Hobsbawm examines complex and sometimes contradictory trends, from the balance of power among nations or increased travel opportunities for the rich. Considering the catchall term “globalism,` Hobsbawm discusses rapid advances in communications technologies, the emergence of a `global popular culture,` and the fading line between internal and international conflicts. Hobsbawm declares that, at the end of the century, `the world is better than it was, with a few exceptions,` but his viewpoint on the state of the world is far from optimistic all the same. Other topics touched upon include demographics, food shortages, the depletion of natural resources, and the increasing polarization of wealth (a topic to which he often returns, arguing that `a billion people living in dire poverty alongside a billion in widening splendor on a planet growing ever smaller and more integrated is not a sustainable scenario`). Looking at the individual level, he draws our attention to the new left, the growth of private interest, and the loss of social values on a grand scale. While none of these trends is surprising, Hobsbawm's elegant analysis brings a century of incredible change into some semblance of frame and focus, even as it prods us to ask why we study the information we call history.

Although rather depressing (Hobsbawn allows that he “cannot look to the future with great optimism`), this is a concise, honest, and cautious approach to the state of human affairs.

brihaspati · Post by **brihaspati** » 07 Feb 2013 04:23

But the new left really doesn't exist! Its more a fond hope of Hobs. The hotbeds of leftism in the west are already moving into a post-Left world. Some radicalism, some revivalism of the Maoist variety - but each of the so-called Leninist and Maoist variety is now discredited. Even if they are looked back upon as the golden past - from which people have deviated and therefore fallen [ a la Islamic wahabism], people really are not convinced. Too much have been exposed for people to feel safe.

brihaspati · Post by **brihaspati** » 10 Feb 2013 05:49

INC might have been trying to take away issues from domestic elections by hanging Qasab and Afzal. At the same time it is also part of a show of toughness because of the recent border fiasco. UPA wants to undercut domestic criticism of being soft on Pakis and Valley jihadis.

But the Pakis will wait until late 2013 then - so that a large portion of US capabilities in the region gets diluted from AFG bases. Then the Valley shariatis and Pindiwales will plan for a Taleb/LeT move on the Valley.

brihaspati · Post by **brihaspati** » 18 Feb 2013 05:12

http://www.nytimes.com/2013/02/17/world ... d=all&_r=0

Hopes for Pakistani cooperation dimmed further on Friday when Pakistan’s most senior cleric pulled out of a meeting planned for March with Afghan clerics in Kabul, after disagreements over the role of the Taliban. But Afghan clerics appeared to believe that the meeting would go forward, illustrating the tentative and equivocal nature of the peace effort. “We want them to invite the Afghan Taliban to the talks. Without them, peace is not possible in Afghanistan,” said Maulana Tahir Ashrafi, head of the Pakistan Ulema Council.

Afghan senior clerics said they remained hopeful that the talks would be held and that a majority of Pakistani clerics would attend.

The most immediate obstacle to talks is an apparent standoff between Mr. Karzai and the Taliban. The insurgents refuse to deal with Mr. Karzai, whom they have branded as an American “puppet.” The president, in turn, recently reiterated his demand that the Taliban must recognize the legitimacy of his government and speak to the High Peace Council, which he has appointed to negotiate with the insurgency and which has representatives from many Afghan factions.

Mr. Karzai, forever fearful of being sidelined by a Western-dominated talks process, has effectively banned the kind of informal discussions with Taliban leaders that have raised hopes over the past few months, including Afghan-centric conferences in France and Dubai, United Arab Emirates, and, earlier, in Germany and Japan — even though those talks appeared helpful in easing tensions between longtime enemies.

Pressure from Mr. Karzai forced the United Nations to abandon a planned “Track Two” meeting, an unofficial diplomacy session involving Taliban representatives and Afghan political leaders, due to take place in Turkmenistan this month, diplomats in Kabul and Islamabad said.

Within the Taliban, a fierce debate is under way between commanders who support talks and those who have never given up on seeking military victory, instead biding time until the Americans are mostly gone, Taliban watchers say. The group’s leader, Mullah Muhammad Omar, widely presumed to be sequestered at his hide-out inside Pakistan, has been silent on the subject. Even if he were to support a deal, it is unclear whether his movement is sufficiently united to stick to it.

The Americans have quietly pledged not to move forward without the Afghan government’s benediction, so previous efforts to build confidence with the Taliban by releasing some of their prisoners from the Guantánamo Bay prison camp are on hold, although the Americans retain the right to consider a prisoner release for strategic reasons of their own. An American soldier is being held by the Taliban, and there has been talk of a prisoner exchange to free him.

In Afghanistan, the fighting has continued in some places through the winter, and the start of the main spring fighting season is just weeks away.

They are trying to postpone the inevitable by putting up the "magical" year of 2014. But the Talebs already know that they have won, and together with them - the Paki clerics and the army. This year itself might turn out to mess up the withdrawal plans claimed to be well into 2015 onwards - and bring it much much forward. Also forward in the worst possible way : Karazai forced to evacuate with his kith and kin and wealth. Renewed civil war in the north, which will initially be lost by the Tajiks and the Hazaras. A portion of the war efforts also unleashed east. China not just yet - the Talebs need Chinese support - so the other target will be down south-east, towards POK. The PLA probably has already or will shortly secure the northern parts of the KKH to ensure that any move goes into K.

In anticipation, all domestic issues that could lead to internal accusations and exploitation by opponents - of betrayal/collaboration/being-soft - being fast-tracked by the Congress. 2014 seems to be becoming a tense moment for electoral calculations too. I guess they anticipate an attack they do not want to be seen as resisting - for fear of losing Islamic votes in the near future.

devesh · Post by **devesh** » 18 Feb 2013 08:03

^^^
Bji,

does that mean INC is preparing for "agyat-vaas" so they don't become targets of Islamics?
seen in this light, the sudden and magical "acceptance" of Modi by Western Press and politicians is worrisome.
you have warned before of the dangers of anointing a "savior".
is the plan, to put Modi in charge and let him take the fall for the unpreparedness against Islamic advance? thus weakening the argument of the "political Hindu" and discredit them for the "loss"?

RamaY · Post by **RamaY** » 18 Feb 2013 08:10

I believe it is a good omen if the following occur
1. NM becomes the PM
2. Some spectacular terror strike comes from PoK

Here I am confident (not assuming) of few things
1. Indian Armed forces are capable of beating any such attack
2. I also hope it would facilitate the next round of modernization of Indian armed forces minus commissions to family
3. The country will be united behind NM
4. The annual plan outlay of ~$200B (9-10 Lakh crores) can finance a war
5. The war can be a good catalist to revitalize Indian economy

And hopefully
1. The PoK issue is resolved once and for all.

brihaspati · Post by **brihaspati** » 19 Feb 2013 07:41

devesh ji,
a very long time ago - I had suggested that the US withdrawal from AFG would be accelerated beginning 2012, possibly even earlier. I am not always on the dot - sometimes things anticipated happen a few years earlier or later. [I had thought MB in WB will split from INC into her second term - but it happened in the first term. - But well there are a lot more of merry dances "left" there. Pun intended]. But the chain of events that would be tied to the withdrawal was always quite clear. It would be a victory for Pak and the Talebjabi complex. I am not so sure that things will not be starting to roll back increasingly in Taleb favour long before the the magic number of 2014.

There is a lot to learn from the Taleb way of fighting - fighting as a total way of life and war. What had to be done militarily to defeat the Taleb cannot be done within the Geneva convention, especially since Islamists are never within the ambit of the Geneva convention and none of them ever get tried for that. Even the Talebs will get away with all their crimes against humanity, and the courts that found only the Serb "war-criminals" guilty but never any one from the Muslim side in the same conflict - will also not be able to find any Taleb ever guilty.

Now no "Hindu" or Indian will ever be able to manage that sort of support from within the ruling regimes of the world - simply because they do not belong to the "chosen" faiths. So tackling the Taleb situation is much more difficult for India, especially because of the strong Islamist networks protected and allowed to flourish for the almost 7 decades of the Republic's existence - within India. The key to Islamist strength anywhere is

(1) allowed territorial consolidation in contiguous demographically dominant interconnected pockets
(2) allowed growth and entrenchment of the mullahcracy and their preaching, Islamist education, and allowed control over their flock
(3) recognition of the right to complete immunity from criticism and debate
(4) the ability to come out and riot or create "law and order" problem
(5) the attraction offered to the sadomasochists in other religions
(6) ability to consistently deceive as to real intent and apparent intent

If you consider all of the above - you can see why current Indian society, state and even the "army" will not be able to defeat a Taleb type force. It requires a different type of military thinking - a kind of "total" warfare that aims at not only just formal armed confrontation but matches the Taleb style of total warfare - on the economy, on the society, on intellect, on education, on signs of resistance, - in essence a complete matching of Islamist strategy itself.

If the "sacrifice" is being planned - so be it. Fate acts in very strange ways. Our liberation is still a distant vision. But each sacrifice and dashed dream is a way forward. It shows what methods will not work - ultimately gradually reducing all the less painful, less ruthless options as unusable.

devesh · Post by **devesh** » 19 Feb 2013 08:10

brihaspati wrote: If you consider all of the above - you can see why current Indian society, state and even the "army" will not be able to defeat a Taleb type force. It requires a different type of military thinking - a kind of "total" warfare that aims at not only just formal armed confrontation but matches the Taleb style of total warfare - on the economy, on the society, on intellect, on education, on signs of resistance, - in essence a complete matching of Islamist strategy itself.

If the "sacrifice" is being planned - so be it. Fate acts in very strange ways. Our liberation is still a distant vision. But each sacrifice and dashed dream is a way forward. It shows what methods will not work - ultimately gradually reducing all the less painful, less ruthless options as unusable.

I'll remember this. thank you for cutting down and getting to the core point: that of survival and an honest assessment of whether current conditions are conducive to continued survival of our culture/civilization as we know it.

I imagine this is what we must all do. forget our wishes and hopes, and just coldly calculate what will survive, should survive, and can survive?
our preparation must be toward that, which has a "yes" for all three above.

RamaY · Post by **RamaY** » 19 Feb 2013 08:23

Bji

I completely agree with your assessment. If that is what it takes to win against Talebjabis, it will be so.

Whether it is 2014 or 2024, the fight is inevitable. All those secular, liberal, universal and economic ideals and strategies will not stop the creeping of talebijm in Bharat core regions. It is upto the Indians to decide if they will work hard a decade more to collect more gold so they can lose it to the jihadis or if they prefer their children instead of them who fight jihadis and so on...

It is all semantics, in the larger time-space line of Bharatiya civilizations. The fight will happen no matter what. Whether it is one or multiple waves will be of Bharat choosing.

Irrespective of what the silly strategists think, the shock treatment seems to be inevitable.

Sarvam Shivamayam, so let us be the fire that destroys the tamas.

brihaspati · Post by **brihaspati** » 19 Feb 2013 09:20

A rather strange look at something I was aware of because of my Lucknow ears - but a new perspective from what I was told otherwise:

'Indian Taliban' behind the anti-Shia operation in Lucknow: Saudi and Deobandi efforts start bearing fruit

http://www.newageislam.com/the-war-with ... it/d/10075

New Age Islam Edit Desk

19January 2013

The firing at the Shia mourners at the Imambargah Wazirganj has resulted in the death of two men, one Muslim named Shanu and the other a Hindu named Ved Prakash Yadav. The firing was allegedly carried out by the members of an unidentified extremist Sunni group of Lucknow that may be called “Indian Taliban” and is seen as the first fruit of the efforts made by Saud cleric and Imam-e-Kaaba Sheikh Sudais and Jamiatul Ulema’s Deobandi leader Arshad Madani to foment Shia-Sunni tensions in India.

Lucknow has the largest population of Shias in the country. Although there have been tensions between Shias and Sunnis in the distant past and even some minor clashes, for many years in the recent past there has been complete peace. This was the result of a conscious decision by leaders of both Shia and Sunni communities that none of them should allow members of their respective communities to provoke one another. But even in days when some tension prevailed nothing like the incident of last Wednesday ever took place. The clash between the two communities in the past remained limited to stone pelting. The modus operandi of this operation points towards a larger and more organised conspiracy to foment serious Shia-Sunni clashes in the city. This also points to the violent turn the sectarian divide is going to take in days to come.

According to reports, the atmosphere had been tense for a few months now with rumours that indicated that something serious was happening behind the scenes and a conspiracy was being hatched to carry out armed operations against the Shias of the city to teach them a lesson in Pakistani style. In Pakistan, the extremist Sunni outfits regularly kill Shias by firing on their congregations, in their mosques and on their processions killing dozens of innocent Shias. They even attack school vans carrying Shia children to school and kill them.

Wednesday’s attack in Lucknow was an operation on the same Pakistani line in which the attackers opened fire indiscriminately injuring dozens of Shias who had congregated in an imambargah for a religious ceremony. Two of the injured later died leading to communal and sectarian tensions in the city.

That the incident was pre-planned and Sunni extremist groups which can aptly be called the Indian Taliban were behind the attack is evident from the facts that have emerged after the incident. Azhar Naqvi, a resident of Lucknow, has given some hints about the motive and the persons behind this operation in a letter published in the Urdu daily Sahafat today. Here is a translation of the letter:

“Rumours were doing the rounds in Lucknow for the last few months that this time the Shias of Lucknow will be taught a lesson in Pakistan style. Since it was a rumour, paying attention to it was considered a waste of time. It was hard to believe that now the plan has been made to bathe the mourners in blood instead of pelting stone at them. How could one believe that the followers of the faith could execute such satanic plans at any cost? ...

“The prudence of the majority of the Shia and Sunni communities has ensured the maintenance of peace and harmony in the city till now. Now it is the duty of the administration not only to arrest the terrorists accused in the Wazirganj attack but also to find out where the weapons came from and who are in possession of the weapons as the rumours were also doing the rounds that this time illegal arms had been brought for the destruction of Shias. And if it was not true, the terrorists would not have fired so fearlessly. It is also suspected that the Lucknow Taliban may have links with foreign terrorist organisations. The government and the administration should immediately take steps to curb this menace otherwise these terrorist forces may play their bloody game on the 8th and 12 of Rabiul Awwal again turning Lucknow into another Karachi.”

It is clear from what Mr Naqvi has written that the operation had been planned well in advance and that the Indian Taliban of Lucknow, if indeed such an organisation exists, have vowed to ‘punish’ the Shias in Pakistan style, that is by firing at their procession, in their mosques, on their processions and celebrations and by target killing of Maulana Abid Bilgrami Karachi style while he was giving a speech. Mr Naqvi also hints at the fact that some powerful people are connected with this conspiracy who have helped in smuggling in illegal weapons for this purpose.

Clearly the efforts made by Saudi cleric and Imam of Kaaba Sheikh Sudais to foment Shia-Sunni trouble in India with the help of Maulana Arshad Madani of Deoband, Shahi Imam of Jama Masjid of Delhi and Ahl-e-Hadees has started bearing fruit in less than a year since March last year when the Imam-e-kaaba visited India and gave a fillip to “Azmat-e-Sahaba” conferences organised by Arshad Madani held throughout the country following his visit.

New Age Islam was the only news organisation in India to warn of the impending dangers and try to warn the Muslims of the real implication of Sheikh Sudais visit and Saudi efforts.

The Editor, New Age Islam, Mr Sultan Shahin, for instance, told a London-based journalist Sahar Saba in a interview on 20 May 2011: “At the moment, we at New Age Islam are trying to warn Indian Muslims of an obvious Saudi attempt to promote Shia-Sunni sectarian division and conflict. The Imam of Kaaba was here with the anti-Shia message and soon after his departure a massive Sunni conference is being organized today in Lucknow, the Shia heartland of India, to basically denounce Shias, though the cover is that the conference is to praise the companions of the Prophet whom Shias are supposed to revile.

“Why the companions of the Prophet couldn’t be praised anywhere else in India where Sunnis are in a majority? Why go to Lucknow? Only one answer is possible. To incite the Shias. “Now if Saudi Arabia comes to Lucknow, can Iran be far behind. Indeed, Iran is already there. But so far India was probably one of the few countries without a history of Shia-Sunni conflict despite a strong 15 percent Shia minority among Muslims. There have been a few disputes in the past but they were easily resolved. At least in the recent past there has been no tension at all.”

New Age Islam columnist Akram Nawaz wrote: “Rather than talking about democracy or other social and political problems facing the Arab monarchs, Sudais in India focused in his lecture on establishing institutions and councils in order to protect the companions of the Prophet from vilification and execration. He said this in the backdrop of a tradition of Shia Islam which allegedly engages in vilification and execration of some of the companions of the prophet (pbuh). Saudi government’s massive propagation of Wahhabi Islam and blatant support to “Sipah-e-Sahaba (of Pakistan)” has already wreaked havoc in Pakistan. Will Sudais’s India visit engender same kind of schism in Indian Muslim society and polarize it into Shia and Sunni sects so as to crush the uprisings in Saudi Arabia and other Arab countries and to protect their dynasties?.”

Wednesday’s attack on the Shia gathering should, therefore, be looked at in this background. The firing and the death of two people is closely linked to the ideological differences of the two Muslim sects –Sunni and Shia. Sunis revere the companions of the Prophet (pbuh) called the sahaba who made enormous sacrifices, physical and material, for the defence, growth and spread of the deen. The Shias, however, have serious reservations about some of the prominent sahaba and the wife of the holy Prophet (pbuh) Hadhrat Aisha’s role during the post-Prophet (pubh) clashes and differences between the sahaba and the family of the holy Prophet (pbuh). Therefore, they allegedly curse and vilify the companions of the Prophet during the month of Muharram. The allegation itself evokes angry responses from the larger Sunni population. The Shia deny any such practice known among Sunnis as Tabarrah (repudiation, moving away, distancing oneself, ''cursing, expressing disgust).

However, in India, the Shias understand the consequences of the public vilification of sahaba and confine their tabarrah, if at all, to private meetings and thus avoid sectarian tensions and clashes.

However, this Shia-Sunni divide has widened across the Muslim world, thanks to the persistent Saudi efforts. Pakistan is in the front line of this conflict. Other countries where Shia-Sunni clashes have turned into violent intermittent riots and bloodshed are Syria, Yemen, Bahrain and Iraq. The larger Sunni sect believes that Shias are not Muslims as some of their practices disqualify them as Muslims. The Wahhabi school of Islam, the official religion of Saudi Arabia, considers them kafirs (non-believers) and wajibul qatal (deserving to be killed). In Pakistan Shias including their innocent children have been declared kafirs and wajibul qatal (deserving death). In India, the Darul Ifta (Fatwa centre), Deoband too has declared them kafirs in its online fatwa.

The Wahhabi school of thought is at the root of violent differences between the Sunnis and the Shias. In this desert of sectarian intolerance, India had so far been oasis of peace and harmony. In Kolkata, for instance, where a sizeable population of Shias live, there is no acrimony between the two communities. Shias hold their congregations and take out processions during the month of Muharram without facing any obstruction or opposition.

But the recent growth of Wahhabi and ahl-e-hadith groups in India with the help of Saudi petrodollars is gradually intensifying this sectarian divide. In recent times, the special interest of the Saudi government in Indian Muslims has raised some eyebrows. Last year, the imam of Kaabah Sheikh Al Sudais visited Darul Uloom Deoband to attend an Azmat-e-Sahaba conference in Deoband on the invitation of Maulana Arshad Madani. He also led the prayer in Delhi and met the Prime Minister Manmohan Singh. Not unsurprisingly, he did not meet any leaders of the majority Barellvi Sunni sect or Shias. He did not visit any Bareilvi or Shia seminary or institution, making it clear that he was not the imam of the Muslims of all ideological denominations but of a particular ideology.

At a time when Muslims of India are facing a number of challenges on social, economic and political front, his visit to India and that too to Deoband, close to Lucknow, to attend a conference on the greatness of Sahaba (companions of the Prophet, some of whom are reviled by the Shias) raised some questions. A general Muslim may object to the reservations about it as there does not seem to be anything wrong if someone eulogises the holy companions. But seen in the backdrop of the grievances of the Shia community against some of the holy companions and their vocal criticism of their alleged role vis-à-vis the family of the holy Prophet (pbuh) it becomes a serious issue. When efforts are made to bridge the gulf between two communities, the points of differences are ignored and the common traits and beliefs of the two communities are stressed. When Sunnis and Shias have different approaches to sahaba it would be detrimental to peace and harmony to focus on the differences and that is exactly what has been done and perhaps will be done in future as well.

There is no threat to the greatness of the Sahaba in India or to Islam as a whole for that matter. Why then does Deoband organise conferences only to eulogise the Sahaba and not to stress the collective message of Islam? There are a lot of areas in which Muslims should work collectively and the Saudi government can contribute to the promotion of education, eradication of poverty and promotion of inter-sect harmony among the Muslims. But instead of doing all this, the Saudi government has been sending its ulema only to foment sectarian troubles in India where both the communities have tried to co-exist peacefully.

Visits of Saudi ulema and imams to India at the behest of the Saudi government during the last couple of years indicate that the Saudi government has some hidden agenda of promoting Wahhabi ideology in a country where all the ideological groups of Muslims have been living peacefully. Last month, the ahl-e-hadith organisation held a major conference in Kolkata in which reportedly crores of rupees were spent.

Therefore, instead of focussing on the educational and economic uplift of the Muslim society of India, the stressing on the points with which Sunnis differ with Shias smacks of mala fide intentions of the Saudi government and the Wahhabi centres of Islamic thought in India. And from the recent incidents of bloodshed in the name of Sahaba only shows that the efforts of the Saudi Wahhabi lobby have started bearing fruits now.

The plight of the Shias under Saudi rule is known to all. They are not free to practice their rituals freely in the dominant Sunni country where they form 15 percent of the population. They are looked upon with suspicion being politically and spiritually close to Iran and perceived as a national threat. The Saudi government occasionally carries out aerial attacks on the Shia population of Yemen and has helped the dictatorial government of Bahrain to crush the Shia uprising against the tyrannical rule.

Thus by focussing on the point on which the Sunnis and Shias differ in approach, the Saudi government and the Wahhabi factions of the country have only demonstrated their plans to perpetrate violent attacks on Shias as is going on in other countries. Some Muslim political leaders seem to be patronising the “Indian Taliban” in Lucknow by providing them legal protection and helping them smuggle in illegal weapons.

brihaspati · Post by **brihaspati** » 27 Feb 2013 04:39

Not sure whether Mirwaiz's comments were discussed before, but
http://www.indianexpress.com/news/afgha ... /1051937/0 [30th Decemebr]

On his return from Pakistan, moderate Hurriyat Conference chairman Mirwaiz Umar Farooq Saturday warned that the violence in Afghanistan will spill over if steps are not taken to resolve the Kashmir issue.

"There is a lot of concern. There could be a spillover effect. Its effects couldn't be limited to Pakistan. India and Kashmir would also be affected," Mirwaiz said at his first press conference after his return from a visit to Pakistan. "The coming year and a half is very important. There is a window of opportunity for India and Pakistan to come together for the solution of Kashmir issue."

The Mirwaiz's comments echoed former top Army commander in the valley, Lt Gen Atta Hasnain, who had said that 2014 would be crucial for Kashmir if the US withdraws from Afghanistan.

J&K will be the first target.

brihaspati · Post by **brihaspati** » 27 Feb 2013 05:12

http://www.ucanews.com/news/church-lead ... oups/67309

Catholic leaders have called on the Indian government to ban two radical Hindu organizations, claiming they are behind a series of attacks on Christians.

However the site also provides some possible glimpse as to how close it might be in physical proximity or "man on the ground" to military confrontations around the subcontinent. There have been accusations of church involvement with the KIA in northern Myanmar. Over the years the phenomenon by which certain ethnicities converted in significant numbers - as well as get involved or remain involved - in military conflicts with central regimes of nation-states they currently legally belong to, seems to have played out equally in NE India, Myanmar and in SL.

Here they report through the church network and the report gives one clue that lay or official preachers could be there on ground :
http://www.ucanews.com/news/army-nears- ... hold/67232

Interestingly, its the Buddhist nation-states which seem to be making the counter fight more determinedly than say the Indian regimes.

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 27 Feb 2013 05:20

I would urge the Mir Wuss to bring it on.
Let the Taliban face some real Indian steel.

Prem · Post by **Prem** » 27 Feb 2013 05:22

brihaspati wrote: ]On his return from Pakistan, moderate Hurriyat Conference chairman Mirwaiz Umar Farooq Saturday warned that the violence in Afghanistan will spill over if steps are not taken to resolve the Kashmir issue."There is a lot of concern. There could be a spillover effect. Its effects couldn't be limited to Pakistan. India and Kashmir would also be affected," Mirwaiz said at his first press conference after his return from a visit to Pakistan. "The coming year and a half is very important. There is a window of opportunity for India and Pakistan to come together for the solution of Kashmir issue."
The Mirwaiz's comments echoed former top Army commander in the valley, Lt Gen Atta Hasnain, who had said that 2014 would be crucial for Kashmir if the US withdraws from Afghanistan.

J&K will be the first target.[/quote]

The opportunity ought to be exploited fully and clean the valley from undesired violent folks and entities.

RoyG · Post by **RoyG** » 27 Feb 2013 05:25

ramana wrote:I would urge the Mir Wuss to bring it on.
Let the Taliban face some real Indian steel.

Oh right. Indian steel which bends to the Congress.

brihaspati · Post by **brihaspati** » 27 Feb 2013 05:38

Jhujar wrote:
brihaspati wrote: ]On his return from Pakistan, moderate Hurriyat Conference chairman Mirwaiz Umar Farooq Saturday warned that the violence in Afghanistan will spill over if steps are not taken to resolve the Kashmir issue."There is a lot of concern. There could be a spillover effect. Its effects couldn't be limited to Pakistan. India and Kashmir would also be affected," Mirwaiz said at his first press conference after his return from a visit to Pakistan. "The coming year and a half is very important. There is a window of opportunity for India and Pakistan to come together for the solution of Kashmir issue."
The Mirwaiz's comments echoed former top Army commander in the valley, Lt Gen Atta Hasnain, who had said that 2014 would be crucial for Kashmir if the US withdraws from Afghanistan.
J&K will be the first target.

The opportunity ought to be exploited fully and clean the valley from undesired violent folks and entities.[/quote]

The key step is the occupation of the Pindi sector to the Afghan side. A very small corridor that effectively completely cuts up the link to north and unravels the entire China-AFG backup plan for KV-west. Short of that nothing will be effective. But this is exactly what most Indian regimes will not undertake. Anything less will be wastage of men and guns, and ultimately the international lobby will roll us back to the prior position to preserve the jihadis.

brihaspati · Post by **brihaspati** » 05 Mar 2013 05:08

http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2013/03 ... -minister/

Secretary of State John Kerry said Monday the Syrian government is receiving support from multiple nations including Iran and warned the window of opportunity for a diplomatic solution to the Iranian nuclear problem "cannot by definition remain open indefinitely."

Kerry, who was meeting in Riyadh with the foreign ministers of Kuwait, Bahrain and Oman as well as the Saudi crown prince and foreign minister, added that "there is time to resolve this issue providing the Iranians are prepared to engage seriously" on proposals to defuse it.

"But talks will not go on for the sake of talks and talks cannot become an instrument for delay that will make the situation more dangerous," he said. Kerry said he and Saudi Foreign Minister Prince Saud al-Faisal "discussed our shared determination to prevent Iran from acquiring a nuclear weapon."

Saud said that Saudi Arabia "supports the efforts to resolve the crisis diplomatically in order to alleviate all doubts surrounding the program." "Therefore, we hope that the negotiations will result in putting an end to this problem rather than containing it," he said, "taking into account that the clock is ticking and negotiations cannot go on forever."

In addition to Iran, Kerry, who is on his first overseas trip as secretary of state after succeeding Hillary Clinton, also held discussions about the situation in violence-torn Syria. Kerry said that unfortunately the "bad actors" in Syria are receiving support from Iran, Hezbollah and Russia.

"The United States will continue to work with our friends to empower the Syrian opposition to hopefully be able to bring about a peaceful resolution, but if not, to increase pressure on Assad," he said. The United States last week agreed to increase non-lethal aid to Syrian opposition groups. Saudi Arabia and several other Gulf states are believed to be involved in shipping weapons to Syrian rebels, who have yet to receive lethal aid from the West.

"The Kingdom stressed the importance of enabling the Syrian people to exercise its legitimate right to defend itself against the regime's killing regime," Saud said. Saud said that Syrian President Assad has lost all authority, saying he has never heard of a regime that would use missiles against innocent women and children in cities.

"Saudi Arabia will do everything within its capacity, and we do believe that what is happening in Syria is a slaughter," he said, "... and we can't bring ourselves to remain quiet. Morally we have a duty." Kerry also was to meet in Riyadh with Palestinian leader Mahmoud Abbas, who is visiting the Saudi capital.

I think a very crucial experiment is going on in how to bring as much of Asia as possible under Sunni control. At one stroke it solves a lot of problems for the west - temporarily. It creates a space of 100 years or more of internal conflicts where remaining pockets of non-Sunni Islam and non-Muslims in general, desperately engage in a war of survival. Thus potential centres of competition - like India - will at first provide fodder for jihadis to engorge themselves, and then the inevitable Islamic slide down the technology, education, research-innovation slope more seen within Sunni domination. So the area remains more controllable as a sink for western goods and hopefully remain dependent on the west as KSA does.

The methods being tried out now in Syria - by KSA and the section represented by Kerry - will be applied on India too. They are just looking at what can go wrong - on a smaller scale.

Prem · Post by **Prem** » 05 Mar 2013 05:28

May be they are gathering all the Sunnis at one place to make their job easy. Predators are always ahead in game of laying the traps for the preys. Sunnis stoned on Jihad and surrounded by Nuclear armed enemies dont paint a pretty picture.

Sanku · Post by **Sanku** » 07 Mar 2013 13:44

Yet another of the worst kept secrets is out

Confirmed! Maldives is a jihadi launchpad
http://www.rediff.com/news/slide-show/s ... 130307.htm

The arrest of Reaz Qadir Khan, a naturalised American citizen in Portland, Oregon, in connection with t the 2009 suicide attack at the Inter-Services Intelligence headquarters in Lahore that killed 30 people and wounded more than 300 others, is yet another wake up call regarding the security set up in Maldives.

..........................
It is this same network which is used to send in funds which are normally raised through drug deals under the garb of import and export. Most of the drug money lands up in the hands of terrorists. Indian agencies say that there is a dedicated channel through which such activities are carried out.

"Most of such activities are carried out from Sri Lanka and also Kerala. It is for the Maldivian authorities with the help of the Indian agencies to monitor every activity generating out of Kerala and Sri Lanka as it has been seen several times that most of the slush funds are generated through this route," said the source.

..................
Over the years, both the Lashkar-e-Tayiba and the Al Qaeda have set up strong launchpads in Maldives. These groups have identified the policing problems in the island nation and also the lack of expertise to check slush funds.

The interrogation of Asif Ibrahim, an operative, who was arrested by the Kerala police also confirms the setting up of the Maldives base.

Ibrahim, who is an accused in the 2007 Male Sultan Park blast said that the operational unit for the India-Maldives terror base was based out of Kerala. It is a cycle where in money comes in from the Gulf and then is sent in to Maldives.

RajeshA · Post by **RajeshA** » 07 Mar 2013 14:00

If there is someone with guts in Delhi, India needs one good excuse to invade Maldives and put an end to the whole drama there, resettle some of the folks there, probably in UK, and take over control over the archipelago.

When I say UK, I mean providing the whole asylum apparatus of logistics, sanctuary and legal support for Maldivians to settle in UK.

If you see zhit anywhere on the planet, always think of exporting it to either Pakistan or to UK. Not that I am saying all Maldivians are zhit but those who are not may also not be averse to the idea - Destination UK!

If UK can keep Indian Ocean islands like Diego Garcia, then UK should also come to the help of Indian Ocean islanders.

Maldives should be resettled with some true-blooded Indians, and get over with this zhit story!

Jhujar ji,

Sorry! That is all that UK deserves!

brihaspati · Post by **brihaspati** » 08 Mar 2013 06:39

Just looking back at discussions on the forum as to Maldives :

shyamd Post subject: Re: Managing Chinese Threat
PostPosted: 22 Oct 2011 16:27

A NATO like Alliance is in the making - SL, Maldives, Bhutan, Myanmar, Nepal, Vietnam, Singapore, Japan. Aus, Indonesia, Thailand, Bangladesh possibly. Its just a question of time before the hand is revealed. India is working over time to set up the Dharmic alliance.
[...]
It will still be some time before everything is fully declared - still lots to be done. What is the end aim of all this? We can all spend money on development and increases our security and makes PRC spend more money on defending more borders therefore less on development. We are treating PRC like the FSU/Iran, they have an expansionist/nazi ideology. Its important to note that this capability is purely defensive not meant for aggression.

shyamd Post subject: Re: Indian Interests
PostPosted: 21 Jan 2012 05:04 pm

A very serious question. It does appear there are drastic efforts to break the alliance plan.

After the Bangla coup, Maldives in trouble
I guess response to this is to conduct aggressive intel operations in BD and Maldives, Nepal against PRC/TSP agents - without the support of host govts if needed. There is talk of Maldives joining the Indian union eventually.

shyamd Post subject: Re: Indian Interests
PostPosted: 21 Jan 2012 05:33 pm

Desi source quips that yindu's played a very crucial role in the discovery of the plot and we are watching our neighbours closely.

It would be good to brainstorm response to these developments in our region. And we need to ask why would PRC/TSP combo mount such drastic efforts against Maldives & Bangladesh govts - does that mean our plans to wean away these countries from PRC are working? Is this a response to India's alliance plans?

I would also be watching US/Westrn moves in the region too - lately they have been promoting MB type groups - we know Jamaat is linked. I'd be pulling up files on the political officers activities from western embassies in the region.

shyamd Post subject: Re: India - The Indian Ocean Civilization & IOR
PostPosted: 07 Feb 2012 11:29 am

Classic coup attempt by Gayoom. Problem is, both sides are pro India. But looks like the Army has stayed pro Nasheed, but if Nasheed continued things could have changed and India would have lost an ally.

Maldives President resigns amid protests

shyamd Post subject: Re: India - The Indian Ocean Civilization & IOR
PostPosted: 07 Feb 2012 03:47 pm

Indian Navy can deploy at short notice and MEA says "extremist elements weren't involved in the ouster and the current situation is not anti-Indian" This was also not a coup per MEA. Link
If you ask me, this was a coup.

shyamd Post subject: Re: India - The Indian Ocean Civilization & IOR
PostPosted: 08 Feb 2012 05:11 pm

Senior Maldivian Official confirms its a coup
Waheed is just a puppet, the real power in Maldives is a retired Military Colnel Nazim says this official. This pro Nasheed MP says it was Gayoom's supporters. I agree with him, this was a textbook coup.

There is an article in the hindu detailing Waheed's close ties with India. Intel sources in Lakshadweep and Kerala say everything normal and quiet on that front. One of our islands is close to Maldivian tip.

Islamists have 3 MPs in parliament out of 77 seats I think.

shyamd Post subject: Re: Maldives "coup"
PostPosted: 09 Feb 2012 04:46 pm

Operational wings of Army AF and Navy have been placed on STANDBY. 54th Division will lead ops. 2 Il 76s and SF Commando's placed on all op alert. Plans are ready

shyamd Post subject: Re: Maldives "coup"
PostPosted: 09 Feb 2012 05:41 pm

I doubt they'll do anything. But to place everything on standby and move into position is serious business.
The new MNDF army chief was trained in India and was in India even last year.Its probably worth calling early elections if the crisis escalates further.

shyamd Post subject: Re: Maldives "coup"
PostPosted: 09 Feb 2012 06:49 pm

GoI wants to ensure safety of Nasheed and are ready to whisk him out of the country.

shyamd Post subject: Re: Maldives "coup"
PostPosted: 10 Feb 2012 12:16 am

Send a senior envoy and basically ensure free and fair elections by the end of the year. Make sure Nasheed can re-group and participate. Get Washington and Russia to support us.

These are the only countries that can intervene seriously in Maldives.
Interests - choke point for trade and ytroop transfer from east to west and vise e versa. We cant afford to lose it. Goi had signed deals to basically integrate their defence with us. Sensor network, air craft , counter piracy, training etc. Baring on links with Kerala as a side issue.

shyamd
Post subject: Re: Maldives "coup"
PostPosted: 10 Feb 2012 07:52 am

Jameel is liberal ,western educated and the defence minister is a soldier trained in the west. Unclear whether they have anything to do with the Islamists . Politically the opposition used Islam as Nasheed was weak here as he opened up relations with Israel. So opposition took advantage of it. It was all opposition parties that bought him down.

FYI Islamists have 3 seats out of 77 in parliament. They are the most vocal but are a minority there.

shyamd Post subject: Re: Maldives "coup"
PostPosted: 10 Feb 2012 08:45 am

Jameel the home minister - has a long track record as a politician. He was in the Nasheed govt but left due to differences.

Same with nazim, India has dealt with him before. Current army chief in Maldives is Indian trained. He was even in India in NDC even last year. People worked with him in military exercises. Interacted with journo's extensively

shyamd Post subject: Re: Maldives "coup"
PostPosted: 10 Feb 2012 03:38 pm

Gayoom is the one that initiated pro PRC deals. They have been saying PRC have leased an island in Maldives to build a submarine base since 2001. Nasheed before he came to power called himself Indian and would never do anything inimical to indian interests and blamed Gayoom for playing "cheap politics" to bring PRC into Maldives.

shyamd Post subject: Re: Indian Interests
PostPosted: 11 Feb 2012 03:28 am
Maldives - India would have been aware of the coup if you ask me and the fact that they played neutral is always seen as a green signal to go ahead based on the theory of the coup. None of those people in the unity govt for the next year are unknown faces to India. Elections in a year. Delhi by placing units on standby have sent the message that Nasheed should not be harmed. Let Nasheed regroup and contest for elections. It had been ongoing for well over a few months. Nasheed made a lot of mistakes too. Anyhow we'll leave this for the Maldives Coup thread.

shyamd Post subject: Re: Maldives "coup"
PostPosted: 12 Feb 2012 01:33 am

You need to be able to coopt the great power of the region or at worst get their neutrality. Gayoom is known to have set up offices in Colombo and Delhi and tried to get meetings with bigwigs. Rajapakse refused to meet him. Unclear who he met in Delhi. But they said SL and India gave Gayoom the cold shoulder.
Neutrality is basically a green light for a coup. You must be able to intervene within 12 -24 hours. It couldn't have taken place without GoI approval.

shyamd
Post subject: Re: Maldives "coup"
PostPosted: 12 Feb 2012 04:58 pm

Spoke to a friend of mine in Maldives, will post his views when time permits:
FYI
The home minister - one of the islamists or supposed islamists who wrote a pamphlet on jews and christians and the Nasheed govt etc - wiki page:

In July 2007, Jameel made history when he defied conservative Islamists and nominated three women judges, the first time the Maldives had admitted women to the judicial bench.[1]
He resigned as Minster of Justice after accusing then President Gayoom of failing to take action against rising Islamic militancy and blocking progress of reforms.[2] One month after Mr Jameel resigned, the Maldives experienced its first ever homegrown terrorism incident when young Islamic radicals blew up a homemade bomb in a public park, injuring a dozen foreign tourists.[3]

shyamd
Post subject: Re: Maldives "coup"
PostPosted: 12 Feb 2012 10:26 pm

Spoke to a former minister in the Gayoom govt.

Was it a coup? Yes it was.

He totally rejects the fact that the Def min and Home minister (mohammed jameel ahmed) are islamists. The source has known both of people very well and especially the Home minister. They both worked on the New Maldives movement http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/New_Maldives

He says most of the islamist stuff the HM used to attack the Nasheed govt is just rhetoric and it was perceived that the Nasheed govt was weak in this area. But 90% of the criticism of the opposition was on policy. The use of religion as a tool to attack the government is popular and there has been a long track record of it. MDP and the others attacked Gayoom saying that he wasn't a muslim. This is just part and parcel of maldivian politics, one needs to know it to understand and see below the surface of rhetoric.

In fact, Dr Hassan Saeed was accused of herecy for a book he wrote with his brother. This damaged his campaign. So this is not a new phenomenon to Maldivian politics. The current home minister, Dr Saeed and Dr Shaheed were accused of colluding with jews during the last presidential campaign.
[...]

On the coup:
The coup took place as a result of several serious blunders by the Nasheed (who is also my friend). Its his activit mentaly that prevented him from thinking strategically to deal with his opponents. People were really angry with the way he confronted the whole judiciary andthreatened the SC ad HC judges. Nasheed never thought it would come to this. This has no link with Pakistan or China. Pakistan now is trying to get involved now that Indiahas recognised this government by trying to appeal to Nasheed. But I doubt that will work.

However, after the coup, (it was the MNDF who forced Nasheed toquit) , there is a huge support for Nasheed as people didn't lke the wa all this happened. He thinks Nasheed will make a strong comeback in the next elections. He will be on attack and the others will be defencive.

On relations with India:

Our current defence deals with India are very important and must be maintained. It is in Maldivian interest to provide India with strategic depth in the Indian Ocean.

The source has already spoken to the Home minister - he is keen to maintain all previous agreements and the GMR agreement (on the airport). Although there will be some areas of the deal that will be discussed with GMR.

All the key players are keen to strengthen ties with India even more. Defence minister Nazim is new to politics and depends on the advice of the Home minister Jameel. The current President Waheed depends on the ministers for his support and most policy will now be decided by the ministers rather than just one man as was in the case of Nasheed.

China relations -

The only chinese presence is the embassy, which is a very active one. They have tried for years to have a presence in Maldives for years, but have been rebuffed by every government. They have currently submitted a proposal to develop an atoll in the South as a second city which Nasheed's govt was reviewing prior to his ouster. THis is the only real attempt they are making. It will be similar to Hambantota in SL.

We are concernd with Pak religious groups to try and gain a foothold here. Pak doesn't like the fact that Maldives is so pro India and is trying to use religion. We are eqully concerned about Pakistan's involvement in funding fundamentalists. We have also suffered from terror attacks. However, the politicians are afraid to take them on openly, even moderate scholars are afraid to challenge them.

Nasheed is playing his cards well. He enjoys huge support with the youth and will probably sweep back into power in a landside.
[...]
The source is someone who served in the Gayoom Cabinet during the period where he undertook the reform agenda. This person worked on reforms and was part of the team drafting the constitution. He then did not support Gayoom's re-election due to feeling there was a need for change in the country. He began supporting and working for election of the ousted President Nasheed. He described Nasheed as a dreamer and supported his government. However, he dropped his support after he took actions and abused the constitution and rule of law.

I am told that Adalaath (the islamist party) asked for Education ministry - this was rejected, They also asked for culture... yet to be decided. The first lady was in the swearing in ceremnony - a first in maldives. Dhunya Maumoon was declined the ffer for Foreign minister. The others are Aldi & Asim.

GMR and Nexbis deal will go through. No radical change will be made.

----------------------------
I guess lets see what happens.

TFWIW

shyamd Post subject: Re: Maldives "coup"
PostPosted: 13 Feb 2012 08:54 am

If anything, we should have been worried about Gayoom during his 30 year stint. He was educated in Egypt and worked with the MB. He wanted to model the Maldives and his party similar to the MB.

shyamd Post subject: Re: Maldives "coup"
PostPosted: 13 Feb 2012 12:43 pm

All we can do is let our concerns be known. But their argument is that it is on the lines of Hembantota in SL as I posted above which is a development project. We have asked for an atoll in the south purely for defence purposes. So we'll be monitoring whatever they are doing and we'll have force to deal with any PRC attempts to cut off our ship movements between East & west. India has started basing assets there and their radar network will be connected to our systems.

shyamd Post subject: Re: Maldives "coup"
PostPosted: 14 Feb 2012 12:23 am

For some people its easy to see only one angle to an issue. I guess if islamism was truely that powerful in Maldives, Adaalath (built on the lines of the MB) would hold a lot more than just 3 seats. Lets see how they do in this election.
It'll be interesting to see how they performed in the last (or only free and fair) election.
A cursory glance provides the following:

shyamd Post subject: Re: Maldives "coup"
PostPosted: 14 Feb 2012 12:57 am

No. Basically, all the Islamic countries share similar or the same rules. If you go against Islam, people will unite to kick you out. It was the same rule in "secular" Syria under the Baathists as it is elsewhere. It is used to get rid of rulers all the time. Even Assad has been accused of going against Islam and laughing at it. No one knows If it is true. But the rumour is enough to motivate people. So Asad has a point to prove. So he goes to the mosque fr prayer and images of him praying are shown on state TV. But is it the main factor in his ouster? Not really. The protests started about bread and daily problems, built on this.

They made the same accusations against Gayoom. Now others made the same accusation against Nasheed. Was that the major factor in his ouster? That is the question. I guess we should ask maldivians this. Let's see what this govt does and who wins in the next elections

shyamd
Post subject: Re: Maldives "coup"
PostPosted: 18 Feb 2012 06:19 pm

I don't think they enjoy the type of support or have that kind of organised support on the likes of the MB YET. But it is not to say they are not a threat. Key is to shut off the connection to pak. But the offer to get free education in madrasa in pak is too attractive. If you can solve this problem, you are on your way of fixing a problem. Apparently after the bomb attacks in male all the groups are under watch.

But solutions need to be made for these issues. Nasheed isn't really an extremist, we can do business with him. Solutions such as subsidies for education could be an option or bring the
To TN or something .. Cheaper or closer than pak.

Any ideas people?

shyamd
Post subject: Re: Maldives "coup"
PostPosted: 24 Apr 2012 05:54 pm

There was a counter terror aspect of the visit. Maldivian, paki and Indian activists/terror suspects are interlinking and SIMI guys have moved to Maldives to wage their war there. The coast guard exercises are due to fEars of 26/11 type attacks originating from the south. It's a good move to double the strength of the ICG.

Nasheed is our man, if I was GoI I would covertly give paisa to Nasheed routing it through DXB or Mauritius. Make sure he wins. This will ensure loyalty towards India on a bigger scale. As after a coup intervention, the nation usually deepens cooperation on a large scale to ensure loyalty and payback.

shyamd Post subject: Re: Maldives "coup"
PostPosted: 25 Apr 2012 07:40 pm

Post coup, cooperation continues with the Maldivian def min visiting in March

shyamd Post subject: Re: Maldives "coup"
PostPosted: 16 Sep 2012 05:34 pm

India announces new measures to boost Maldivian defence

shyamd Post subject: Re: Maldives "coup"
PostPosted: 14 Feb 2013 07:39 am

Virupaksha,

Firstly, he wouldn't have returned if he felt so threatened and if something did happen to him - he'd get the sympathy vote. Waheed govt would be in deep trouble too!

Secondly - Indian position has been clear - we want elections and to let Nasheed contest.

Thirdly, You need to go through the facts again - not just look at his tweet. so you are saying that a future president who has turned up at our HC asking to meet the High Commissioner and saying I'm not leaving until I do is seeking REFUGE? It's not the first time and it won't be the last that he is trying to manipulate what's going on.

Also once the high commissioner turned up, we let him stay because he wants us to mediate in asking Waheed to step down amongst other things! Does that sound like refuge to you? Look at statements not just the MEA but officials who are actually dealing with the issue both in India and in Maldives. As of 4pm Maldivian time there was no chance of arrest either because he won the appeal! He can say what he wants, fact is that he has an interest to create a big hoo ha which he has been trying to do since day 1.

*******************************************************

I have omitted other posts quoting other sources as to how development, economic ties were going strong - defence collaboration booming, - intel and surveillance and listening-post type activity on - Islamists are a fringe element, etc. etc.

Interestingly we have : both Gayoom and Nasheed to be pro-Indian, while one pro-Indian nourished jihadis and radical elements for 30 years under blind support of GOI who allowed such noursihment from Pakiland, then we have another Pro-Indian also employing Islamists in the pastbut who is now the only bet for India.

We have Islamists who are fringe, non-entities with just 3-MP's but of whom even moderate scholars are scared, and politicians are afraid of.

We have a non-Islamist society, which merely uses religion to express other material disssent - but where if you go against that religion - everything locks down.

We have GMR deal guaranteed to go through - no change in Maldivean GOV attitudes w.r.t biz deals connected to India, and then it all suddenly crashes down. All of that after at least a year post coup of everything being well, and defence collaboration and biz ties going forward as if nothing has happened.

GOI helps/gives green signal/ for a coup against its own "friend" on whom India's future bet in Maldives lies, in favour of an old friend who had nourished radicals for 30 years.

Is it that difficult to see the sources of our fumblings in our foreign policy?

RamaY · Post by **RamaY** » 08 Mar 2013 08:30

Bji

Al-bin-Soursi is just another islamophilie dhimmi. Didn't know you were chitraguptifying him

Prem · Post by **Prem** » 08 Mar 2013 10:38

In case of hidden Jihadi in Bharti Abadi , the best strategy is to provoke them to fight . May be this is why GOI is trying best to ban the information, literature and make stupid laws undermining the very Indian state its suppose to secure. Expose and Dispose paradigm adoption by true stake holders will go long way to achieve internal stability.

brihaspati · Post by **brihaspati** » 19 Mar 2013 05:27

http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2013/ma ... an-leaders

Afghanistan opposition parties in talks with Taliban, claim leaders
Hamid Karzai's opponents – many from Northern Alliance of 2001 invasion – also claim to be in dialogue with militant chiefs

What is interesting to note is that everyone seems to be claiming to talk to everyone. Or rather denying the right of others to talk. The idea is to provide leaks that X is talking to Y, and then either X or Y or both to deny the leak. It may mean that the attempted negotiations failed, or simply to make X or Y a potential suspect for others planning to negotiate with X or Y.

In the post "west" scenario, guns alone will talk. Whoever has the most viable gun - that is not just the gun the machine, but the mind behind the trigger - will take power.

The west, especially the US and UK will keep channels open and negotiate with both Talebs and Hekmatyar, and if the Talebs refuse to take forward Tapi - as they are likely to because of the parallel Saudi interests which run slightly contrary to the US ones in this particular issue, US is more likely to gradually whitewash Hekmatyar suddenly overnight in the same way another Democrat admin reclassified the Islamist terror organization in Kosovo as "freedom fighters".

But who will win? If Saudis manage to bring China online, the Talebs will have a three cornered external support through ISI, China and Saudi financial channels. So Hekmatyar+Dostum+Massoud will fail - unless substantial matching investments flow in from other camps. Unlikely and surreal as it may look like - it may be the turn of India and Russia to help them out. But India helping out Hekmatyar - that's surreal too!

brihaspati · Post by **brihaspati** » 05 Apr 2013 22:28

Anyone tracking the sudden drop in 10yr Japanese gov bond? Need to put multiple streams together.