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Re: West Asia News and Discussions
Posted: 05 Apr 2011 15:30
by somnath
abhischekcc wrote:1. How many parsees are left in India.. Enough for this project
2. How many of them would want to go back to Iran!? Depends on how they perceive this idea
So there is a "critical mass" of parsis from the ranks of 60-70k that will uproot their (comfortable) lives in India to go to Iran and open fire temples

..........And the Islami Republic of Iran will welcome them with open arms?
Re: West Asia News and Discussions
Posted: 05 Apr 2011 15:45
by abhischekcc
I was suggesting this as a great way to nudge nudge the Islamic Republic of Iran to become less Islamic and more Republic. I did not say that people are breathlessly waiting to do this already
Only you are getting all breathless here

Re: West Asia News and Discussions
Posted: 05 Apr 2011 16:31
by RajeshA
abhischekcc wrote:RajeshA ji,
I am not a fan of secularism, it is too easily penetrated by westernisation, which leads to deculturization, loss of identity, and eventual recolonization.
Iran's adherence to radical Islam has a strong element of defiance built in. IOW, the society becomes more radical in the face of external threat. However, if Iran is allowed to open up properly, they would be more inclined not to take extreme positions in everything - from Israel to the bedroom. Helping them open up would enhance the security environment for everybody in the region, except USA. Even KSA should welcome a less radical Iran.
Secularism comes in many forms and colors.
Considering that backlash pressure is building up against the Revolution, at least in the minds of the young Iranians, their natural inclination would be to throw out
Velayat-e Faqih, and a lot more along with the bath water. So if the present regime fails, they probably would want to have checks and balances in their next political system which does not allow peering eyes into the bedroom. This is more or less "secularism" we are talking about.
Yes, the system may be susceptible to American influence and deculturalization. Is there anything India can do anything about that? Should we do something about that? But then considering the role America has played in the evolution of Iran, the Iranians may not be all too inclined to listen to Americans either.
The system would however have a solid foundation in Persian Nationalism.
Re: West Asia News and Discussions
Posted: 05 Apr 2011 17:18
by RamaY
ramana wrote:Rule 101 : Never shoot the messenger
Rule 102 : Every thing is data
Rule 103: Never forget rule 101.
Ayyo Ramanaji. I was trying to figure out the reasoning behind that strategy.
Please forgive me for lack of sophistry (in my defense, I am from rural Bharat

).
Re: West Asia News and Discussions
Posted: 05 Apr 2011 17:25
by brihaspati
A very long time ago I had suggested that Iran may actually be the first one among the Islamic states to overturn mullahcracy. But any such overturning will have to be compensated for and will be compensated for by an ultra-nationalism that can lead to easier flash-points of war with neighbours.
Do note that any Sunni-led attack on Iran will only entrench the mullahcracy of Iran, and the Ayatollahs will get a renewed few more generations of dictatorship - and destroy any immediate chances of "secularization".
It is almost time for the Revolutionary Guards generation to fade away - the 30 year effect. It will be downhill from now on. But any Arab-Sunni adventure will give them a new lease of life.
Do not attack the "Shia" right now - at least with the legendary caution of GOI, an alliance with the GCC will hit all the raw nerves. Not that Iran has been a good boy with respect to Indian interests either [both indirect support to Talebs, tightening screws on Balochs which ultimately go in favour of slumabad, and making the odd noises from time to time on Kashmir].
Well it all depends on "objectives" - if not letting the Sunni be without thorns is an objective, Iran's anti-revolution-revolution should be allowed to proceed on its own - without Sunni goading.
Re: West Asia News and Discussions
Posted: 05 Apr 2011 17:31
by RamaY
RajeshA garu,
Right now Shia group in strong position and is advancing further. To my eyes Shia states have strong nationalistic component where as Sunni states strong tribal component.
You could see this in Iraqi freedom movement in the past eight years from their liberators

. Only the nationalists have to make compromises (parallels in India) as they have much to lose if they don't.
Nation State:
The nation-state is a state that self-identifies as deriving its political legitimacy from serving as a sovereign entity for a country as a sovereign territorial unit.
[1] The state is a political and geopolitical entity;
[2]the nation is a cultural and/or ethnic entity.
The term "nation-state" implies that the two geographically coincide, and this distinguishes the nation-state from the other types of state, which historically preceded it.
Perhaps a persian Iran can co-exist with Israel.
Re: West Asia News and Discussions
Posted: 05 Apr 2011 17:44
by RajeshA
brihaspati garu,
It needs some exploration, as to whether a war between Sunnis and Shia would entrench the Shias in Iran or whether Islam itself is going to take hits and weaken in Persia.
Would the large majority of youth, unimpressed by the Islamic regime, run to increase the ranks of the Revolutionary Guard, or would the youth be telling the Revolutionary Guards, "I told you so! There is no Ummah!".
Re: West Asia News and Discussions
Posted: 05 Apr 2011 17:55
by brihaspati
They will not say "no Ummah" - because the Shia-Sunni division itself formalized the Persian-Arab contest - as is the case with most sects within the Abrahamic. The Germans/Goths mostly adopted Arrian Christianity in contrast to Roman Church [there is some evidence that the Byzantine Church after the downsizing of the Roman - mounted several naval expeditions against the Spanish Arrian Gothic regime uncannily at the same time as the Arabs were raiding North Africa and moving towards Spain, and it was switching over of a Byzantine Christian governor near the Gibraltar to Islam that paved the way for the conquest of Spain].
So a Sunni attack will only help the Ayatollahs rub their hands in joy - look kids - I told you that these Arabs are deviants from the true path. It is these heretics who undermine the Ummah. Bacchelog - we need to solve this problem for ever. These Arabs are corrupt and decadent [exact English words for those used in Farsi speeches] and they are no longer "pure". So their attack on us is simply an attack from heretics.
Re: West Asia News and Discussions
Posted: 05 Apr 2011 18:02
by Lalmohan
in such a war, india should hold the ring
and dissuade IM's from joining the overseas war
Re: West Asia News and Discussions
Posted: 05 Apr 2011 18:11
by shyamd
It would be a war to de-nuclearize Iran and weaken its regional power.
Re: West Asia News and Discussions
Posted: 05 Apr 2011 18:19
by RamaY
Denuclearize Iran - by GCC?
I see it now.
Re: West Asia News and Discussions
Posted: 05 Apr 2011 19:59
by ramana
RajeshA wrote:Is there some inflexion point when the Persians get fed up of Islam in whatever form and turn away from it back to the roots?
Isn't the GCC+USA+TSP taking a chance on that?
A regime collapse in Iran, brought about by Sunni attacks, would simply mean that Persian nationalists would have a strong argument against Islamic brotherhood, and the Revolutionary Guards remnants would have to concur, tipping the country away from Islam altogether!
For India a rather interesting development, cutting off the Islamic crescent, allowing an Indic consolidation to the East of it!
Also a possibility I alluded to in the ebook!

-About a hundred years after the fall of Cestephon, the Persio-Arabs moved the Caliphate from Damascus to Baghdad and founded the Abbasid dynasty. They brought in Turks (Mamelukes) to control the Arabs. The Abbasids dynasty was mainly a Persian dynasty. They paved the way for Turks: Mameluks, Seljuk and Ottomons.
- After the Golden Horde conquered Persia, they started to convert to Shia and the Safavid (a Turkish tribe) dynasty established Shiaism as state religion.
- As rivals to Ottomons (used Persian as court language for quite sometime) the Shia Persians stopped Eastward advance. In frustration the Ottomons took over the Hejaz and declared themselves the Caliphs!
- In 20th century the Pahlavis changed the name form Persia to Iran going back to the times of Cyrus
So what you see is not dropping of Islam but de-Arabising of Islam.
-1978 overthrow of Shah of Iran was an end to monarchial rule in Iran
They have a 500 year cycle for historical change
India should supports the Iranian impulse and not the Persian impulse.
Re: West Asia News and Discussions
Posted: 05 Apr 2011 20:10
by RamaY
The name "Iran" is a cognate of "Aryan", and roughly means "land of the Aryans"

Re: West Asia News and Discussions
Posted: 05 Apr 2011 20:30
by Klaus
The Parsi community in India have great utility in the form of intelligence operatives. Under diplomatic cover, they could be used as GoI's HUMINT assets in Iran.
Ramana ji, if we are looking at a re-emergence of an Iran corresponding with Lodhi dynasty times, it would still mean that India-Iran relations are still stuck in the straitjacket imposed since Delhi Sultanete times!
Re: West Asia News and Discussions
Posted: 05 Apr 2011 20:44
by brihaspati
One way is to send off a Parliamentary delegation to "meet and chat" with the Iranian MP's. Very legitimate. That way they get to meet both gov and opposition MP's - a thing that USA or UK routinely does in the subcontinent. Lots of rubbing palms will happen. Leave it to the "survivors" in a sea-of political sharks to establish relationships that transcend even love through more reliable bonds like grease. Surely there are MP's on both sides who double as devoted gu(rd)ha-purushas!
Re: West Asia News and Discussions
Posted: 05 Apr 2011 20:45
by shyamd
Anyone heard of the kingdom assembly in iran?
Re: West Asia News and Discussions
Posted: 05 Apr 2011 20:56
by brihaspati
How strong? Yes they have changed tack more recently becoming more politically shrewd. Same goes for the Iranian communist party and its two main factions. Collectively they still are in a rather dubious state. Unless of course they collaborate with the West.
Re: West Asia News and Discussions
Posted: 05 Apr 2011 21:27
by shyamd
Supposedly they have some serious participants and have links with CIA and are used for murders of scientists etc. Don't know how serious they are though. Lets see.
Re: West Asia News and Discussions
Posted: 05 Apr 2011 21:30
by ramana
Klaus, No one wants to hark back to olden times. My recounting was to the change in Iran is subtle and is in process.
Bji, Many expatriates do hobnob with BRF people. Lot of Mitra bakeries and other reminders of pre-Islamic times are there.
Re: West Asia News and Discussions
Posted: 05 Apr 2011 23:35
by shyamd
Anyone who wants a serious look at whats going on. Please read. Ramana - note the confirmations of Turkwalla.
Pakistan ready for Middle East role
By Syed Saleem Shahzad
ISLAMABAD - With a broad Sunni Muslim bloc of countries lining up against an emerging Shi'ite crescent in the Middle East, Sunni-majority and nuclear-armed Pakistan could play an important - albeit somewhat reluctant - role.
A step in this direction is Pakistan's decision to keep two army divisions on standby for deployment to Saudi Arabia in the event of trouble there. This followed a visit by Saudi Prince and secretary general of the National Security Council Prince Bandar Bin Sultan to Pakistan.
Earlier, Pakistan's Fauji Foundation, an armed forces entity, organized the recruitment of over 1,000 ex-army personnel for service in Bahrain's National Guard. The small Persian Gulf state, which is headquarters to the United States 5th Fleet, is suppressing protests with the help of Saudi invasion forces. Bahrain's ruling elite is Sunni, although about 70% of the population is Shi'ite.
The advertisement for Pakistanis to join Bahrain's National Guard was published about three weeks ago in a mass-circulation Urdu-language newspaper. Since then, the process of recruitment has continued unabated.
According to investigations by Asia Times Online, the recruits have been promised 100,000 Pakistani rupees (US$1,174) a month, beside other perks including free medical and accommodation.
People with names that have a traditional Shi'ite ring - such as Syed, Abbas, Ali and Hussain - are being overlooked.
Iranian media have broadcast stories predicting a strong Pakistani role in the Gulf region; this resulted in Iranian-sponsored agitators in Bahrain killing several Pakistani workers for "collaborating with the Sunni rulers of Bahrain".
A calibrated response
[
b]A senior Pakistani politician and a former member of the senate who is known for his closeness to the military establishment [/b]told Asia Times Online on the condition of anonymity that immediately after the Tunisian and Egyptian uprisings earlier this year,
Pakistan carefully positioned itself both domestically and at the diplomatic level to act as a "frontline state" for Sunni Islam.
In another sense, Pakistan has been a frontline state in the "war on terror" ever since the invasion of Afghanistan and the ouster of the Taliban in 2001 - an uneasy role at the best of times.
In backroom moves, the military briefed rightwing political parties - including the Jamaat-e-Islami Pakistan, the Jamiat-e-Ulema-e-Islam, the Pakistan Muslim League Q, Imran Khan's Pakistan Tehrik-e-Insaaf and the Jamaatut Dawa - on what is believed will be a showdown within the Muslim world.
Exactly at this time,
Pakistan's powerful foreign minister Shah Mehmood Qureshi, from the spiritual Qureshi family of Multan - the all-season favorite of the Pakistani military establishment whose changing political allegiances have always directed the course of Pakistan's political history - suddenly resigned.
He then began a powerful campaign against his own leaders in the ruling Pakistan People's Party.
After a long break, Pakistan's military establishment and the old bloc of pro-establishment political parties were on the same page.
This time, though,
the aim was not a military takeover but a future positioning for Pakistan.
This
development had a trickle-down effect in the insurgent-hit tribal areas, where militants held their fire against the Pakistan army (a partial ceasefire agreement was already in place).
In this whole situation, restive Balochistan province, where a separatist movement festers, remains the only problem if Pakistan becomes involved in the Middle East crisis. The province is adjacent to Iran and has always been amenable to Iranian intervention.
Diplomatic moves
Backchannel talks on Turkey's position are the most important component before Pakistan jumps into the Middle East crisis. Turkey's ruling Justice and Development Party had been in favor of the Arab uprisings, but the Libyan crisis has forced Ankara to think again.
Libya is now a haven for militancy in North Africa and the Middle East.
Like all Sunni Muslim states, Turkey is dedicated to working for the supremacy of the Sunni orthodoxy that ensures the maintenance of the current regime.
The Muslim Brotherhood, which had been suppressed in Libya, has sprung up as a strong and organized political force and
is actively collaborating with the Jamiat al-Muqatala, an armed opposition group that is not shy to show its affiliation with al-Qaeda.
Strengthened with looted weapons of the Libyan armed forces,
these Islamists have apparently smuggled a large cache of weapons to Tunisia and Egypt, where the Muslim Brotherhood and its sympathizers of armed groups have also re-emerged.
Recently, former military intelligence colonel Abdul al-Zamar and a relative, former major Tariq al-Zamar, who were arrested in September 1981 over a failed coup against the regime of president Anwar Sadat, only 10 days before his assassination, were released along with several top leaders of the Jamaat al-Jihad (led by al-Qaeda deputy Dr Ayman al-Zawahiri) after strong popular demand on the streets of Cairo and other cities.
In this quagmire, Iranian-influenced Shi'ite Islam will play a big part. Significantly, it could influence Turkey's Nusayri population (self-proclaimed Shi'ites), who, according to some estimates, make of 18% of the population.
Along with Iranian-sponsored Kurdish rebels in Turkey, the Nusayri have always been a potential threat for Turkey. The Turkish army, a flagbearer for Sunni Islam, has built many Sunni mosques in far-flung villages in an attempt to drown out the Nusayris.
Following the Saudi-supported agitation in Syria, the Iranian-sponsored proxy war in the Middle East is likely to gather speed, and first Pakistan and then Turkey are likely to play a proactive role on the side of Saudi Arabia to retain the supremacy of Sunni Islam in the Arab world.
Syed Saleem Shahzad is Asia Times Online's Pakistan Bureau Chief and author of upcoming book Inside al-Qaeda and the Taliban, beyond 9/11 published by Pluto Press, UK. He can be reached at
[email protected]
Admin please highlight the necessary and xpost as needed.
Re: West Asia News and Discussions
Posted: 05 Apr 2011 23:48
by Hiten
most bious Wah bhabhi Sunni troops of Saudi barbaria engaged in purifying Islam
Saudi Forces Burn Mosque and Desecrate Holy Quran in Bahrain [remove the 7 from the URL added at the end of .pk]
http://www.dailymessenger.com.pk7/index ... Itemid=460
photus of the same
http://abna.ir/data.asp?lang=3&id=234548
http://www.shiapost.com/news/32.php
Re: West Asia News and Discussions
Posted: 06 Apr 2011 01:09
by ramana
The S^3 article looks like a Barkis is willing type article. Its good that TSP chooses to get involved in West Asian affairs as they think they are not part of Indian sub-continent. Only Balochistan with contiguoius Iran border and making KSA plead with India not to take advantage. The article shows they have worked hard to cover all their bases to avoid blowback. However have they thought about Afghanistan where their strategic bakras are ranging free?
Re: West Asia News and Discussions
Posted: 06 Apr 2011 01:58
by shyamd
I am made to eat my words today after reading this article, I told source Pak can't do it and gave him an earful. He replied everyone is "uniting for a common cause". I still gave him an earful. Now, source has got it spot on. Even warned me about the south turkey shia - which originally I rubbished in my mind.
The article has confirmed A LOT about the world and who controls what. This is bigger than I originally imagined it was. All the tidbits I knew are just slowly being pieced together like a jigsaw puzzle.
The 2 division figure of 30k troops is bang on with what IOL has said. They have an agreement signed in the 80's for this. KSA is exercising this agreement.
All I can say is that things are just sooo much bigger than we could have imagined. These ayrabs are crazy, this is bigger than the world economy for them. Good bye unkil and EU. I'm really not sure what the new world is going to look like.
Re: West Asia News and Discussions
Posted: 06 Apr 2011 02:22
by ramana
We all live and learn. No need to feel bad. All is feedback and data.
Where is massa in all this?
Re: West Asia News and Discussions
Posted: 06 Apr 2011 02:26
by JE Menon
If what SSS is saying is true - and I doubt the scale and organisation of it, because I'm not sure why other powers outside this sunni cabal will simply standby and watch this happen - then there will be a quid pro quo for the Pakisatan, and we all know what that's going to be

A non-nuclear Iran is not such a major bugbear, and there is still animosity aplenty between the various Sunni groupings as well as the different ethnicities involved.
But SSS is not someone to be casually dismissed. It is an interesting report.
Re: West Asia News and Discussions
Posted: 06 Apr 2011 02:31
by shyamd
As explained - they are forced to go along with this. They have no choice. I get the feeling waashington is just one big mumbo jumbo with lack of coordination - they made a stupid mistake. I dont think washington understands that the ekhanomy is going to be in the doldrums for a LONG time to come. Imagine this situation as if it is the nuclear scenario (the last option).
For the sake of the world, I hope Iran comes to the table. I think Ayatollah regime sees the writing on the wall - but patience has been lost in Riyadh.
What happens to Pakisatan is another story - India may have to do some swift moves. Now is not the time to be playing around in Desh. We need a real leader to get us through the next 10 years. This is BIG, if it takes place.
JEMji - Take it from me. Its for real (its not bull$hit).
Re: West Asia News and Discussions
Posted: 06 Apr 2011 02:34
by ramana
During Iran-Iraq war the TSP had a division in KSA. So they are promising two of them now. And can the Turkish fight? When was the last time they got into a farcas in the West Asia?
Re: West Asia News and Discussions
Posted: 06 Apr 2011 02:34
by svinayak
http://worldmeets.us/kayhan000050.shtml
Kayhan, Islamic Republic of Iran
President Ahmadinejad Warns Arab Monarchies of 'American Trap'
Has Washington pressured Gulf Arab countries to denounce Iranian interference? According to this news item from state-run Kahyan, Iranian President Ahmadinejad disputes whether the Gulf Arab states are genuinely suspicious of his government, and insists that the U.S. seeks to hijack revolts across the Arab world for its own purposes.
April 4, 2011
Islamic Republic of Iran - Kayhan - Home Page (English)
TEHRAN: On Monday, President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad demanded that Saudi forces leave Bahrain and said that the United States and its allies have been pressuring Arab states in the Persian Gulf to accuse Tehran of interfering in the region.
On Sunday, the Cooperation Council for the Arab States of the Gulf [PGCC] issued a statement saying it was worried about "Iranian meddling." [see video below] Ahmadinejad said that since the statement was issued under pressure from America and its allies, it "has no legitimate value."
http://worldmeets.us/ http://worldmeets.us/kayhan000050.shtml#ixzz1Igf2Tuob
Re: West Asia News and Discussions
Posted: 06 Apr 2011 02:37
by shyamd
ramana wrote:During Iran-Iraq war the TSP had a division in KSA. So they are promising two of them now. And can the Turkish fight? When was the last time they got into a farcas in the West Asia?
Puki division - 15k plus 8k support. So KSA are exercising the full agreement (max 30k, some sources quoted 80k whcih is what went into my article, latest source as 30k and SSS backs this up).
Also, latest news is that the EU are talking Yemen and Libya to the Gulf (they had a meeting today in the GUlf led by Bahraini delegates). But I dont think they realise what the feeling is in the GCC.
Looking back on it, US shot itself by backing ousting of Mubarak - while we are thinking democracy and how we should increase partnership with democracies. US & perhaps KS has made some grave miscalculations. It needed the right timing. Maybe I am overplaying things.
Even Debka has jumped into the foray of the feelings in the peninsula: There is a lot of BS about KSA taking on protestors - totally false. But you get the gist of what is going on to a certain extent.
Iran squares off against Saudi Arabia over Bahrain's annexation
DEBKAfile Exclusive Report April 4, 2011, 2:14 PM (GMT+02:00)
Tags: Bahrain Hizballah Iran Iraq Saudi king Abdullah
Saudi tanks in Bahrain
The accord reached between Saudi King Abdullah and the Bahraini monarch Hamas bin Isa Al Khalifa for the oil island's virtual annexation by Riyadh has so incensed Tehran that armed Iranian-Saudi clashes with the potential for all-out warfare may soon become unavoidable, debkafile's Iranian and Gulf sources estimate. Shiite-ruled Iraq would back Tehran in the first Shiite-Sunni collision to be sparked by the wave of unrest sweeping the Arab world - in contrast to the domestic discord raging in Libya and Yemen.
In the third week of March, debkafile reveals, King Hamad agreed to hand over to Riyadh control Bahrain's defense, external, financial and domestic security affairs. The Saudi king's son Prince Mutaib was confirmed by the two monarchs as commander of the Saudi and GCC forces invited to enter the tiny kingdom to put down the Shiite-led uprising, and it was agreed that Saudi Arabia would soon start building a big naval base on the island opposite the Iranian coastline.
The accord between the Saudi and Bahraini monarchs appeared for the first time in DEBKA-Net-Weekly 487 on March 25. It revealed then that King Hamad had allowed his realm to become the de facto 14th province of Saudi Arabia in order to block the Shiite uprising against him and its knock-on impact on Saudi Arabia's two million restive Shiites next door.
Neither Riyadh nor Manama has made the pact public. The Bahraini province of Saudi Arabia will differ from the other 13 in that it will not be governed by a Saudi prince like the others but by a member of the Al Khalifa royal family who will enjoy equal royal privileges with his Saudi peers.
Our sources report that in closed meetings with senior Saudi princes, King Abdullah explained the fundamental importance of this step for the kingdom's national security. He reported that Iran and its Hizballah surrogate were actively stirring up Shiite opposition in Manama as the first step toward fomenting a Shiite uprising against the Saudi throne.
On March 21, Riyadh resolved to expand the terms of reference of the Saudi-Gulf military intervention requested by King Hamad. Instead of just safeguarding the royal palace and strategic facilities against rampaging protesters, our sources report, it was decided to expand the mission to guarding Bahrain's borders against external attack – i.e. Iran or Iraq.
To this end, Saudi troop reinforcements have been pouring into Bahrain from the last week of March, including armored units and a variety of missiles. debkafile's military sources estimate that some 11,000 Saudi and United Arab Emirates boots have hit the ground in Bahrain since then.
Four days later, on March 25, Manama announced that planes taking off from Iraq or Lebanon would not be permitted to land in the kingdom, thereby cutting of the main route used by Iran and Hizballah to bring over intelligence agents and military instructors to aid the Shiite opposition.
The second important military step afoot at present is the transfer of Saudi fleet units from the Gulf of Oman and Red Sea to the military section of Bahrain's port, where the US Fifth Fleet has its headquarters and berths its ships. This is a provisional facility, to serve the Saudis until they finish building a port at Manama for parking their main Persian Gulf naval and marine command center, in response to the expanded facilities on the opposite shore of Iranian Revolutionary Guards' naval and marine raider units.
March 31, the Iranian parliament's security and foreign affairs committee strongly condemned Saudi military steps: "Saudi Arabia knows better than any other country that playing with fire in the sensitive Persian Gulf region is not in their interests," said the statement.
Since then, Iranian media have not stopped denouncing Saudi actions in Bahrain, likening them to Saddam Hussein's 1990 conquest of Kuwait which triggered the first Gulf War against Iraq. Riyadh was even accused of accepting clandestine US and Israeli support.
Then, Saturday, April 2, Iraq's Shiite Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki chipped in by reviling US Middle East policy as discriminating among the popular movements in motion against the different Arab dictatorial regimes: "Whatever decision is made on Libya should be applied to any government that suppresses its people with iron and fire," he said.
Sunday, April 3, the threatening recriminations coming from Tehran and Baghdad prompted the Gulf Cooperation Council to hold a special foreign ministers' meeting. It passed a resolution which "severely condemned Iranian interference in the internal affairs of Bahrain in violation of international pacts."
Language this blunt has never before been heard from GCC leaders. It is attributed by our Gulf sources to Saudi King Abdullah's adamant resolve to challenge Tehran headon on every issue affecting the Gulf region's security, to the point of Saudi military intervention when called for – even at the risk of precipitating an armed clash between Saudi Arabia and Iran.
The Islamic Republic finds itself confronted with its first forthright, no-nonsense challenge: If it backs down in the face of Saudi military activism, the Shiite communities across the region will conclude that Iran is both unable and unwilling to stand up for the Shiite-Arab revolt against Sunni regimes – whether in Bahrain, in other Gulf emirates or in Yemen and Lebanon.
Iraqi Prime Minister al Maliki faces the same quandary with regard to Iraqi Shiites who consider Bahraini coreligionists to be an integral part of their tribes and clans.
It is taken for granted by Saudi Arabia, Gulf capitals and Western military and intelligence observers that Tehran has been pushed into a corner from which it cannot afford to pull back from its overarching commitment to sponsor Bahrain's Shiites. The Iranians are therefore expected to send their Bahraini Shiite networks into terrorist action against Saudi military targets very soon. Riyadh is already braced for these assaults - and not just in Bahrain but in other GCC states including Saudi Arabia proper.
They will not go unanswered; hence the dire predictions among seasoned observers that armed hostilities between Shiite Iran and Sunni Saudi Arabia may at some point become unavoidable.
Re: West Asia News and Discussions
Posted: 06 Apr 2011 02:43
by JE Menon
>>And can the Turkish fight?
As Obama almost said: "Yes they can"

Re: West Asia News and Discussions
Posted: 06 Apr 2011 02:43
by ramana
Meanwhile Nightwatch reports:
4/4/2011
Egypt-Iran: Egypt is ready to re-establish diplomatic ties with Iran after a break of more than 30 years, Egyptian Foreign Minister Nabil Elaraby said on 4 April. Elaraby's statement came after a meeting with Iranian official Mugtabi Amani, the first meeting between officials from both countries since the departure of former President Mubarak.
Iranian Foreign Minister Ali Akbar Salehi called for developing bilateral cooperation, beginning with having Elaraby visit Tehran or having himself visit Cairo, an Egyptian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman said
----------
From Sunni capitols/tents it looks like Shia-Sunni fight as consequence of decimation of Saddam Hussein's Iraq. Recall his last words were "Beware of the Persians!" And they all gleefully paid US to take him out in first Desert Storm and later were participants in GW2. Its payback time when their own people are throwing them out. Modern times means demographics rule.
However there are differences. Only Iran is Persian Shia. All others are Arab Shias. So there is a mix of sectarian and nationalist forces at work. And Turks are back as new Mamelukes after being kicked aound by EU.
------------
What do you mean EU talking to taking to Gulf? GCC?
Is that the new CENTO?
Re: West Asia News and Discussions
Posted: 06 Apr 2011 02:49
by shyamd
They had some casual meetings today in Brussels. Frank discussions apparently. EU wanted to talk about Yemen and Libya situation. But Bahraini's got their chance to talk about Iran etc. But this is just standard diplomatic meetings.
---------------------
Omar Suleiman met with MB in secret meetings per press last week. Things are happening.
Ramana, This is bigger than Iraq revenge. Turkey basically think their security interests lie withGCC.
I'll explain later. Need to sleep. GN
Re: West Asia News and Discussions
Posted: 06 Apr 2011 02:50
by ramana
JEM Suggest looking at Turkish combat capability.
Re: West Asia News and Discussions
Posted: 06 Apr 2011 02:52
by brihaspati
Pakistan is "trying" and "pretending" to be the frontman for Sunni Islam. It is one way for it to continue to gain from KSA and also strengthen its position with respect to USA. We need to separate "aspiration" and "capacity".
So suppose a successful strike takes Iran out from the Sunni side. India helps Sunnis - gets tagged with the lure of FDI's and "protection" of hostage Indian population in GCC to stay neutral - but Pak-KSA relationship continues at a deeper level. Post victory, we expect the GCC sunnis to hold back Pak? What gun then we have to KSA head?
This is a mistake. A big big mistake. Any collaboration with the Sunni - the majority within Islam - is a blunder. Unless it is done a la Molotov-Ribbentrop - buying time to sharpen the sword. But as I have been told - we must trust the GOI. If things go wrong, there is always the consolation that decision makers take decisions based on what they know - and there cannot be any penalty for not knowing, isnt it!
Re: West Asia News and Discussions
Posted: 06 Apr 2011 03:01
by ramana
ShyamD, What I ment was that getting Saddam out was Kalidas move by Arabs for it was he who kept Iran in check.
Offcourse Turkey's interests are in West Asia not in Europe! They were always at the gateway/doorstep of Europe. I don't think much of their capability.
Bji, Iran can take care of itself.
To all the finance gurus how are the hedge funds taking this?
Re: West Asia News and Discussions
Posted: 06 Apr 2011 03:09
by JE Menon
Ramana,
I've looked out of the window at them. There is not one country in NATO that will, today, on its own take on the Turks by themselves apart from the US. If you meet any of our military people, ask them what they think.
Let me put it this way, if the Turks can't fight who do you think can? You'll be able to count the countries probably on the fingers of one hand. They are seriously locked and loaded. And the are not shy about using it, with the Kurdish areas used as training grounds. Sitting in northern Iraq (more precisely Republic of Iraq - Kurdistan Province - temporarily onleeee), I can tell you that they have managed both war and business well. They hit the Kurds when they want, and at the same time do business with them (a lot of it). Got to hand it to the Turks in that regard.
Sidenote: Surprise, suprise - the place is crawling with Indians too, much more than I expected.
Re: West Asia News and Discussions
Posted: 06 Apr 2011 03:16
by shyamd
B-ji, you don't understand. GoI's hands are tied (so its just saying what the hell let's make the most out of this), so are the US's. A lot happened over the last couple of months. I think even I misread the picture a little.
Israel too will have to lay low for now.
There is a way out of the predicament. Iran must de-nuclearize in exchange for EU/US support package. That's the only way out for them now. Iran has its back against the wall and is surrounded by literally everyone. This is the last move for Iran.
Ramanaji, exactly correct. I was thinking exactly the same. That's why I was said I think KS & US got it wrong.
US has just made some MAJOR mess ups that has cost it big time. But Iraq wasn't the killer move, it was the egypt move that caused all this. US as usual thinking its too smart.
I think Iran will head to Brussels or Vienna to talk N business. It will buy itself some time for now but it has to settle..
Re: West Asia News and Discussions
Posted: 06 Apr 2011 03:19
by ramana
Re: West Asia News and Discussions
Posted: 06 Apr 2011 03:25
by JE Menon
Guys, we need to step back a bit and recognise one reality. No one predicted this course of events for the MENA region in 2011. The whole thing caught everybody pretty much by surprise, the scale anyways, and everyone is now trying to adapt and to take advantage. It's a case by case thing with different parties trying to take advantage in different countries.
World War 1 was started with a single murder - assassination, if you will, by an Albanian (IIRC). At least events were set in motion which ultimately resulted in WW1. Ironically, it might by the suicide by a Tunisian that sets in motion events that could well lead to a conflagration similar in scope, if not scale.
Re: West Asia News and Discussions
Posted: 06 Apr 2011 03:28
by ramana
IOW, Shifting Mubarak was moving the rock of Arab stability aka Rock of Gibraltar. And now post-Mubarak Egypt wants to restore stability for itself leading to a vaccum and KSA feels threatened.
If you look at demographics the Sunni sheikdoms are better served by accomodating their Shia populations, for that old phase of minority ruling the majority are over. You need muscle and if its imported it will take over like int eh ealry Arab centuries.
After defacto partition of Libya between oil rich and no oil regions, KSA also has the same prospects.
Relying on Turks will lead to the old nemsis of Seljuks and Ottomons. Last time they came to help they tookover too. It took WWI and Sharif Hussain's wisdom in aligning with British to get Arab freedom. Al Saud should think it over. And not lose it in two generations.