vishvak wrote:This election con race will use all the cards it seems.
The best bet is declare Mayawati as PM candidate of UPA and go with a Dalit+Muslim combination. Congress does not need its own as puppets. I bet some sort of such arrangement (may not be as drastic as Maya as PM) is on the cards. Maya+INC in UP and Laloo+INC in Bihar are for sure to happen. In addition INC+TRS in Telangana while forced YSRC alliance in Andhra are guaranteed.
Modi has to do an analysis to counter the above possibilities.
^^ Is Maya totally against modi ?
Why can't BJP and BSP have an alliance in UP.
That will solve a lot of problems for everyone.
If Maya cooperates , powerful cabinet ministries (like home) could be allotted - she can then take care of all the detractors of congressi camp (like caged parrot ) and make a good example out of those who have hounded her out of power in UP.
It will also give a shock of their life to Kancha Ilaiah types ...
While weakening the KHAM combo in rest of India. Throwing votebank calculations into a total disarray in the country means more floating vote up for grabs and where Modi is unmatched to any other politician in India.
She already came to power with a SC-Brahmin social engineered plank - so she should have no qualms in cooperating with Hindu nationalist Modi only if she is willing to give up psuedo secularism - considering the targeted violence (rape and murder ) going on against SCs by Islamist types in Mullahyam raj she maybe amenable.
vishvak wrote:This election con race will use all the cards it seems.
The best bet is declare Mayawati as PM candidate of UPA and go with a Dalit+Muslim combination. Congress does not need its own as puppets. I bet some sort of such arrangement (may not be as drastic as Maya as PM) is on the cards. Maya+INC in UP and Laloo+INC in Bihar are for sure to happen. In addition INC+TRS in Telangana while forced YSRC alliance in Andhra are guaranteed.
Modi has to do an analysis to counter the above possibilities.
+1000.
This is the definite game plan from the Congress HQ.
Akhilesh seems to have been caught in secular godhra type situation, or secular encounter situation where selectively information is leaked/withheld or later not presented in courts. Assault weapons and mob attacks is selectively not pre-empted while post attack on Hindus selective information is leaked to corner CM of a state while vote bank politics make mob attacks not important enough to ignore it completely- without any political effect. In case of an encounter in Gujarat later some information from intelligence agency was not presented in courts.
This time the cost of all this selective politicking is paid by Jat community in UP. SP as well as BSP should note how some vote bank use such agendas selectively to make it look secular but reduce strength of others with mob attacks- and not indulge in compromise politics against each other.
Lilo wrote:^^ Is Maya totally against modi ?
Why can't BJP and BSP have an alliance in UP.
That will solve a lot of problems for everyone.
If Maya cooperates , powerful cabinet ministries (like home) could be allotted - she can then take care of all the detractors of congressi camp (like caged parrot ) and make a good example out of those who have hounded her out of power in UP.
It will also give a shock of their life to Kancha Ilaiah types ...
While weakening the KHAM combo in rest of India. Throwing votebank calculations into a total disarray in the country means more floating vote up for grabs and where Modi is unmatched to any other politician in India.
She already came to power with a SC-Brahmin social engineered plank - so she should have no qualms in cooperating with Hindu nationalist Modi only if she is willing to give up psuedo secularism - considering the targeted violence (rape and murder ) going on against SCs by Islamist types in Mullahyam raj she maybe amenable.
She only cares about two things - power and money. Its in her interest to keep Modi/BJP weak in UP.
The situation in Karnataka (BJP is not recovered), Bihar and UP are the states that stand between UPA-3 and NDA. The wave may look nice in urban India but the above states needs to have a miracle.
A lot of people may hate TDP but it has to come back for UPA-3 not to return.
In Maha it got to be SS+MNS+BJP for Modi wave to work.
For Modi to have a cakewalk
(1) INC + Maya should not happen
(2) INC + Laloo should not happen
CongI+Laloo has already happened, it is actually in Laloo's interest to stick around with CongI. I would not say game over for Laloo, but he has been pretty much gamed and brought into the CongI fold (Or CongI by extension).
Also Laloo magic is in Bihar, and if polarization happens - Laloo + Niku will be diving for the same boat. The earlier split with Niku has likely effect of breaking the Bihar equivalent of KHAM.
BJP has to ensure that it does not derail the current apple cart in Bihar.
Now the game is afoot in UP. CongI and SP are in a tussle., SP's loss is CongI's gain. The minority vote bank is shifting towards CongI particularly if they vote strategically. All this riots are engineered by CongI to polarize and Bhajpa is collateral damage. *There is an alternate for the minority vote bank and that is Baspa.
Of course the key here is BSP (or Baspa). Maya is caught in a cleft, either Baspa will be wiped out by CongI or Bhajpa at higher level and Sapa (Samajwadi party) at local level., it is in her interest to be strategic and try to weaken all three.
If the minority votebank shifted towards CongI (strategical voting) and Sapa weakened - her choice will be to strategically align with CongIs. And if CongIs sense that, the bargaining positioning of Baspa is reduced.
I am sure Maya is watching news and getting all the ground reports. She may already be ahead of the CongI curve. If the minority vote is shifting towards Baspa, then she may chose to remain neutral and enter into post poll alliance.
Bhajpa's best bet is to keep Baspa neutral and that depends upon how much upper castes are putting their lot with Bhajpa. The jats getting vexed in the UP riots means that Bhajpa if it gets its act straight can reap that!
Situation is fluid and I will not rule out Baspa remaining neutral trying to harvest the "minority" votes.
In support of that here is article by Shivam Vij in firstpost:
1. Upper Castes - Entrenched, would like to maintain that - largely affected by Yadav Goonda raj, do not sit comfortably with Maya's Dalits. Have deserted Bhajpa.
2. Jats - Calling them out separately since they have been affected by recent riots. Angry with CongIs and Sapa - the "K" in "KHAM" (they behave like "K" at least)
3. Dalits - Non Yadav backward classes including SC/STs - basically the "HA" in "KHAM". The core for Baspa, they either vote or sit in! If they sit in Advantage CongIs.
4. Yadavs - The non dalits (still BC)., traditional vote bank of Sapa. This is the vote bank CongIs is after.
5. Minorities (major minorities!) - they vote strategically - locally for Sapa/Baspa and nationally for CongIs. With riots in place, they have deserted Sapa and most likely go into CongIs laps.
National elections is different from local elections again., so if Bhajpa can carve out 1,2 and 3 out of the above - ensure Yadavs sit in or vote for Sapa and ensure that the minority votes is split - it is game over for CongIs.
What Bhajpa can do is form a package with Baspa - that is if they cross certain seats nationally and come to power - Baspa gets a special status locally and curtains for Sapa.
For CongIs, the only stick they have for Baspa is CBI - and to turn off Maya, Bhajpa should encourage a meeting between Sonia and Maya - followed by meeting between Maya and Priyanka Vadra and then with #pappu.
And what was before Solanki? Chimanbhai Patel. The winning formulation of KHAM were enunciated post navnirman moment circa 1974.
Ahir is "similiar" to Yadav. Does not take into account the tribal belt of S. Gujarat and the adivasis of kutch (and some of whom are "muslims" ) and with Ahirs there are different sub-clans., the ones in Saurashtra are more upwardly mobile and would not want to do anything with the "lower" castes.
Anyway, KHAM stands for - Kshatriya, Harijan, Adivasi, Muslim.
1. Upper Castes - Entrenched, would like to maintain that - largely affected by Yadav Goonda raj, do not sit comfortably with Maya's Dalits. Have deserted Bhajpa.incorrect the ones who earn their living doing bizniss are bhajapa supporter
2. Jats - Calling them out separately since they have been affected by recent riots. Angry with CongIs and Sapa - the "K" in "KHAM" (they behave like "K" at least)
3. Dalits - Non Yadav backward classes including SC/STs - basically the "HA" in "KHAM". The core for Baspa, they either vote or sit in! If they sit in Advantage CongIs.dalits includes chamar,doom,dhobi wagera, apart from those with surnames "yadav"rest are with bhajapa.
4. Yadavs - The non dalits (still BC)., traditional vote bank of Sapa. This is the vote bank CongIs is after.
5. Minorities (major minorities!) - they vote strategically - locally for Sapa/Baspa and nationally for CongIs. With riots in place, they have deserted Sapa and most likely go into CongIs laps.
National elections is different from local elections again., so if Bhajpa can carve out 1,2 and 3 out of the above - ensure Yadavs sit in or vote for Sapa and ensure that the minority votes is split - it is game over for CongIs.
What Bhajpa can do is form a package with Baspa - that is if they cross certain seats nationally and come to power - Baspa gets a special status locally and curtains for Sapa.
For CongIs, the only stick they have for Baspa is CBI - and to turn off Maya, Bhajpa should encourage a meeting between Sonia and Maya - followed by meeting between Maya and Priyanka Vadra and then with #pappu.
Disha ji, I ask this with all humbelness and full respect to you, I hope you dont feel insulted -
After reading what you have wrote, it is almost 100% against conventional wisdom (or so I think), or my own interpretation. May I know, what qualifies you to make these observations? Why I ask is to understand where I am wrong (or you are). Are you from UP? Do you live there? Have a good sample of people you follow? Are a kean political observer
OR
It was just that you wanted to write and put your best interpretation.
Like when I write executive summaries, I clearly mark what is an assumption and what is an observation - What you wrote is assumption (for theorizing or observation)?
Thanks,
Fanne
Fanne'ji it is the later! Summary for executive's secretaries only - forget the executive.
*ALL* - above musings on UP are arm chair analcyst interpretations only . Take it with a huge boulder of salt!
And niranji already corrected for more clarifications. So enjoi onlee.
Edit: 1. Having said that, it is still better than arm-chair journalism indulged by the MSM
2. Fanneji, maybe the only debate I think I have with you is this: I think there is hope to put Maya in neutral slot and cobble together a coalition of 'like" minded jatis/upa-jatis/sub-jatis/jatis-within-jatis/jatis-without-jatis etc.... All is not lost - YET!
Last edited by disha on 17 Sep 2013 20:09, edited 2 times in total.
Banganlore: Former CEO of Infosys and chairman of Unique Identification Authority of India (UIDAI), Nandan Nilekani, is likely to make his political debut by contesting in the Lok Sabha elections in 2014.
Sources said that the Congress is keen to offer Nilekani a ticket from Bangalore South constituency.
Currently BJP's Ananth Kumar represents the constituency in the lower house.
i guess that takes care of one corner of the dreaded D4 - south blr is solidly middle class and white collar with few urbanized villagey pockets that are also deeply into support functions and recognize the nilekani name.
Singha wrote:i guess that takes care of one corner of the dreaded D4 - south blr is solidly middle class and white collar with few urbanized villagey pockets that are also deeply into support functions and recognize the nilekani name.
henceforth we should call it the C3
They really were CH4 but mistakenly identified as D4.
There's a lot of speculation about an INC-BSP alliance with Mayawati as UPA3 PM candidate.
This is not going to happen, mainly because the Maya-INC power equation rotates around the fulcrum of CBI blackmail.
Let's face it, CBI has investigation documents that could embarrass and politically destroy almost anybody in Indian politics today. Apart from the CBI's official files, you can be sure that individual CBI officers have also amassed such documents privately, perhaps as a last-ditch "insurance" in case their political masters decide to sell them out.
Right now the see-saw is tilted in the INC's favour because they are in power. All CBI investigation documents that would embarrass the INC are neatly buried, while those that target Maya are held over her head to make sure she behaves.
With Maya as PM the see-saw would reverse completely. Maya would have the power to bury the evidence against her own party, and would surely unearth all the existing evidence against the INC to hold over their heads. This is likely to be a mountain, compared to the boulder that INC currently holds over Maya's head.
The Termite Queen and her acolytes would never, ever allow such a situation to arise. And the thing is, they might never need to... because in fact, Maya, Mulayam, Nitish, Laloo and everyone else fear Modi much more than they resent CBI-blackmail by the INC. CBI blackmail can be negotiated, you see. Modi coming into power, however, would be a game-changer of unprecedented proportions.
For Modi to become PM at all, the entire textbook of political calculus that ALL present-day formations rely on...the vote-bank formulations of KHAM, MAJGAR etc. etc. being part and parcel of it... would have to be rejected and burned to ashes by the Indian electorate next year. Only if Indian citizens at large decide that Modi's leadership is more important to them than voting along traditional caste and community lines, does Modi have any hope of becoming PM. Such behaviour by the Indian voter, however, would severely damage the INC's decades-long strategic positioning by undermining its most basic divide-and-rule assumptions; it would also completely, and I mean COMPLETELY negate the very basis for people like Mulayam, Nitish, Laloo and Mayawati to have ANY political presence whatsoever.
The rise of Modi very simply means the end of Shah Bano/Mandal/Kancha Ilaiah politics (note how the attempt by Congis to foist caste-based politics via Keshubhai Patel's faction failed miserably in Gujarat state elections last year.)
Mayawati and all others will oppose this by making any compromise necessary with the INC, because it is like death staring them in the face. I think Mayawati, Mulayam, Nitish, Mamta and whoever else will all go willingly with INC... no need for PM position or any such inducement... to save themselves from the fate that would be inevitable under a transformative NaMo PM-ship.
I am a kean political observer, who had hoped that BJP will win (and has been right in 1998/99 AND WRONG IN 04/09). My accuracy is no better than Yogender yadav, who had predicted Cong win (and was wrong in 98/99 but right in 04/09). The comparison ends here. I do not want to be in the same sentence as this bojo, but why I mention this is, in spite of spending time and energy, me and my friends have fallen way short of predicting electoral success. I keep on hearing wave election - No idea of what it is. In 77 I was a kid, I remember my first slogan which as a kid I use to shout, without knowing the meaning - Gali Gali me shor hai, Indira Gandhi chor hai. In 84, TV and the footage of IG made RG win election (another wave election, but then why would congress need 'wave'?).
The reality is, Indian election is group of state elections, within state, regional elections (Some MP win regardless - Scindia etc). The caste line or some grouping are permanent, and they decide the election. I feel con success has been (if not EVM) then because of these factors -
1. They have been campaigning since 1857. It's like how China etc prepares for next olympic, just after the current one concludes. The deracination of Indian (Hindu) middle class, to loathe anything Hindu and now increasingly Indian (where Arundhati has the gall to declare that she is citizen of the world first and demand Kashmir be made independent, or an important poster here at forum says, he respects an author and his book, even if disagrees with autor political or nationalistic outlook) has made this population loose the sight of the issue. They 24/7 news (where one AsaRam Bapu is demonized, or in Muzaffrabad riot where more than 80% of the victims are Hindus, the MSM boldly claim otherwise, making the victims the villians) is congress biggest ally. That advertisement just does not start when election are announced, neither it get counted towards con expense. Most importantly, teh gullible public sees that as a neutral arbitrator of news.
2. Con does 'buy' votes of lots of people, for whom, Rs 500 - 1000 is a big amount. Through NREGA and teh contractor supply chain, they have a stranglehold of this population. These group, mostly cut off from their root (i.e. villages), live in Urban setting. This may explain Con 2004 and 2009 huge SUCCESS IN MANY URBAN AREAS, even if the Nielson survey of 2004/2009 of urban area gave both the parties equal footing (or advantage to BJP). This group of daily wages worker, or unauthorized colony dwellers, made the difference in the end.
3.Cong has representation from all groups, in all areas; though by many accounts in last few election between 30-60% of cong voters have been from minority community. Cong gets 26% vote and minorities are 20% of the population. BJP cannot do much here.
BJP can definitely do much in the above 2. Before BJP came to power, RSS had superb programs for slum dwellers. The power poison of 98-2004, MANY MORTALS, instead of serving the poor served themselves (nothing wrong, but they should hav not lost their org and services in this sector). For this election they have to counter the second group. The first category, we at BR through Twitter, Blogs etc can contribute a lot, and we should!!
thanks,
fanne
Fanne guruji, moi have let us say ears on the ground but moi can onree hear
in and around UP and BIHAR for other parts of India the wise folks here are the guides
and no moi never ever rely on media yak yak, this time around it is totally different kinda
like some crazy unexplainable raze or craze or wave or whatever,I call it NaMonamahnitis
e.g. earlier the upper class(not castes)would advice the lower class employed under them on who to
vote for,this time around it is ulta,now we are advised to vote for NaMo(note it is NaMo not bhajapa)
moi sample size is 78 constituencies in UP and Bihar that is an ample size no?
It will eventually boil down to the critical state of Uttar Pradesh. The Muslim vote has dictated the last two elections in the state. In the 2007 Assembly polls, Muslims chose BSP and in 2012 they rallied behind SP, thus helping the state get single party rule. But in the 2009 Lok Sabha elections, they voted tactically to help the best possible candidates from SP, BSP and Congress win against BJP. On the face of it, the 2009 results from UP look like a fractured mandate; but if one looks closely, the only loser in the state was BJP whose share went down to a historic low of 10 seats, polling about 18 per cent votes, while the Congress went up from 9 to 21 seats polling almost the same number of votes. In other words, Uttar Pradesh had given 70 out of 80 Lok Sabha seats to non-BJP parties; and Muslim voters were instrumental in this verdict.
Out of the 80 Lok Sabha constituencies in Uttar Pradesh, Muslims are over 20 per cent in two dozen-odd seats in the western region including Bareilly, Badaun, Pilibhit, Rampur, Sambhal, Amroha, Meerut, Muzaffarnagar, Saharanpur, Bijnor, Amroha and Moradabad. Little surprise then that the recent communal riots have polarised sentiment in these very areas. In eastern UP, they are decisive in another 12 seats including Azamgarh, Bahraich, Gonda, Sravasti, Varanasi, Domariyaganj, Gonda and Balrampur. If Modi decides to contest from one of these seats, especially Varanasi, the effect of polarisation will be felt not just in western UP but also in western Bihar/ Bhojpur region.
Muppalla wrote: In eastern UP, they are decisive in another 12 seats including Azamgarh, Bahraich, Gonda, Sravasti, Varanasi, Domariyaganj, Gonda and Balrampur If Modi decides to contest from one of these seats, especially Varanasi, the effect of polarisation will be felt not just in western UP but also in western Bihar/ Bhojpur region.
there is a reason why i always tell folks to not to rely on media reports or analysis WRT politics and election
in Azamgarh the minorities are concentrated in and around Azamgarh and Mao (the district) proper not in the villages rest of the areas
they are in minorities less than 2 percent per village or town population, exception being a town "Lar" bordering Bihar which have 60% of town resident from musalman community,
in Varanasi onree those staying in Aurangabad, Nai Sadak and Madanpura mohalla are of minority community contrary to popular beliefs these zones have elected bhajapa since 94, Moralimanohar Joshi currently represent these areas.
wat in the name of all that is wise and proper is "Bhojpur region" pulled from mushy perhaps.
the dynamics are such I am expecting armed calls for a muslim "rohilla" homeland consisting of parts of UP, Bihar and MP in a few years , backed by some political formations and cloaked under "smaller state, more efficient state" but de facto run by muslims, for muslims and as per islamic law. once the state Govt is run by Ulema the Govt machinery will fall in line and align with islamic jurisprudence and mores only.
and if the stick is to be applied, enough of heavily armed militias and mobs are already in place. all they need is a campaign to bring them all together.
I have always (in response to Bji) said that this wont be allowed to happen by "others" (communal, nationalists etc) -- the current mess was IMVHO a testing ground for whether a Razakar force was ready to rule.
It seemed the Razakars needed to hide behind IA way too quickly -- short of something internally stupid like 370 (no longer possible) or a partition forced by external powers, after a loss in war, the above wont happen.
Last edited by Sanku on 18 Sep 2013 10:59, edited 1 time in total.
It seems modi's sudden elevation has bothered those planning for creating a USA out of UP (USA = United States of Azamgarh). So what we are seeing now is a sudden prepone-ment of 'peace initiatives' (a la muzaffarnagar) that were originally planned maybe 5 years down the line.
yesterdays razakars are not todays razakars. todays lot are way more networked (telecom,email,gulf returnees, tabliqs), have good political cover from SP, Niku, INC , access to vast arms from local manufacture, nepal border, naxals, criminal networks stretch to workshops in coimbatore/chennai/mining belts for high quality arms and explosives....they also have bangladeshi cannon fodder (farm labour) & experienced sharpshooters to use as the front ranks storming the ramparts.
generally such a horde will by purpose carry out some very gory act to cow down people and spread fear far beyond the absolute number of killed. things like raping jat women serially has been going on.....people have been ambushed and beaten to death with singular focus. expect things like people's heads or limbs being cut off and hung in public square or sent in a plastic bag to their home village - faizal khan style.
a nationalist govt would be able to end this menace by ending political cover and letting the cops due the danda and clean the mess, but thats not going to happen - not from niku, SP or INC. each is fighting to see who can better protect the "Qaum"
so either the hindus will cow down and give up the fight, or respond with their own set of brutal attacks. they will however have to face the full wrath of the local law as well. so its 1 -vs- 2 unequal contest in UP. 1-vs-3 if you add Media.
in bihar the BJP might be able to win enough seats to make it tough on the sultanate but there too some districts will be liberated zones and kafirs will need to conform or else.
Assam also is long overdue for a few masscares....the pressure cooker is boiling. another afghani sultanate in central assam districts of old undivided kamrup and nagaon is surely in the plan.
Singha wrote:
generally such a horde will by purpose carry out some very gory act to cow down people and spread fear far beyond the absolute number of killed. things like raping jat women serially has been going on.....people have been ambushed and beaten to death with singular focus. expect things like people's heads or limbs being cut off and hung in public square or sent in a plastic bag to their home village - faizal khan style.
that was the plan, and to blame it all on modi and thus preventing him from announced as a PM candidate, but the Jats counterattacked
and they attacked the soft belly of any force,i.e. homes, kids and the ultimate blemish on H&D "women folks" imagine a horde is roamingin a nearby town for a prey when they get a call
"Yindooos are burning up our mohalla such and such was pulled away hurry do something"
and blasphemy of the highest order
a delegation of 20ish folks from minority community traveled all the way to meet up Modi in Rewari, Modi is alleged to have ask them to demand for a brand new modern safe settlement these people put up their demand directly to MMS and Sonia on their visit,
currently sapa and INC both have their collective lungi tied are looking at way to prevent it from
"A yadav is tainted, he let a genocide in Muzafarnagar"
its a delicate dance between BSP , INC and SP.
just as US would like support from India and China to drive its industries (arms, media, finance) and get cheap products done but NOT see them grow too big for their "role", the INC tries to manage the SP and BSP by keeping them competing with each other while accepting the overlordship in delhi as the final arbiter.
they would like SPs stature to be cut down, but not SP to lose because all SP MPs are being counted as INC support in the final tally. they want to hurt him but not demolish him. the MMS-Sonia-RG visit another way to twist the knife.
if SP grows too weak, BSP may become too strong and demand more from INC or go feral. again thats not desirable outcome.
nationwide where the SP/BSP does not exist, the INC also wants to send strong signals to the razakars to rally behind its flag and get the protection of its elite horse cavalry vs the "saffron forces"
the hate mongers shall be found - thus spake the great dragon
find find find scurried the rats all around, find find find the hate mongers
"warrant issued against BSP and BJP MLAs" - IBN
I am getting confusing inputs from people around here. I have been told by a UP gentleman that after the MahaPanchayat, the attack on tractors near the canal and the firing on Army with AK 47s, Hindus emptied 2-3 entire villages of pissful scum which is the reason why the faithfools are angry at SP for not protecting them from the fall out. TFWIW.
उत्तर प्रदेश को केंद्र बिंदु बनाकर मिशन 2014 में उतरी भाजपा का उत्साह पार्टी कार्यकर्ता ही नहीं दूसरे दलों के नेताओं ने भी बढ़ा दिया है। अस्सी लोकसभा सीटों वाले राज्य के अड़तीस वर्तमान सांसद भाजपा के संपर्क में हैं और उसके टिकट पर चुनाव लड़ना चाहते हैं। वैसे भाजपा नेतृत्व ने लोकसभा चुनाव के लिए लगभग 50 फीसद सीटों पर अपने उम्मीदवार तय कर लिए हैं। वहीं, पार्टी के पीएम उम्मीदवार नरेंद्र मोदी अगले महीने से राज्य का सघन दौरा करेंगे। संभव है कि हर आठ-दस दिनों के अंतर पर मोदी राज्य के किसी न किसी हिस्से में मौजूद हों।
प्रदर्शन जो भी हो, माहौल ने भाजपा के सिपहसालारों का जोश बढ़ा दिया है। खासकर मोदी के नाम की घोषणा ने हर दल के नेताओं को नई रणनीति पर विचार के लिए मजबूर कर दिया है। बीते दिनों सपा की टिकट ठुकराने वाले सोमपाल शास्त्री अकेले नहीं हैं। सूत्रों के अनुसार विभिन्न दलों के 38 सांसद भाजपा से संपर्क साधे हुए हैं। वह इस बार भाजपा से ही अपनी किस्मत आजमाना चाहते हैं। पार्टी की ओर से अभी किसी को ठोस आश्वासन नहीं दिया गया है, लेकिन हर समीकरण देखने के बाद मजबूत उम्मीदवारों पर वह दांव लगा सकती है। बताते हैं कि कई सीटों पर उम्मीदवारों के नाम तय हो गए हैं। नवंबर तक अधिकांश सीटों के प्रत्याशियों की घोषणा हो सकती है।
इसी के साथ मोदी का अभियान भी अब तेजी पकड़ने वाला है। अक्टूबर से नवंबर तक आठ-नौ रैलियां कर पूरे प्रदेश को मथने की कोशिश होगी। टीम मोदी की योजना पर काम हुआ तो आगरा, बरेली, गोरखपुर, इलाहाबाद, बनारस, बहराइच, कानपुर, मुजफ्फरनगर के आसपास कई क्षेत्रों का दौरा होगा। दौरे का कार्यक्रम इस लिहाज से बनाया जा रहा है कि वह पूरे प्रदेश में अपनी उपस्थिति दर्ज करा सकें। शुरुआत कहां से होगी, यह फिलहाल तय नहीं है, लेकिन नवंबर तक मोदी अपने पहले चरण के चुनावी अभियान का समापन लखनऊ में करेंगे।
प्रदेश में राजनीतिक कील कांटे भी कसे जाने लगे हैं। यह ध्यान रखा जा रहा है कि किसी भी संसदीय क्षेत्र में आपसी खिंचाव वोट पर भारी न पड़े। मसलन कल्याण सिंह की मौजूदगी में लोध समुदाय से यह आश्वासन ले लिया गया है कि वह भाजपा के साथ है। तो नाई, मल्लाह, निषाद, वाल्मीकि जैसे समुदायों पर भी खास नजर रखी जा रही है।
Chandragupta wrote:I am getting confusing inputs from people around here. I have been told by a UP gentleman that after the MahaPanchayat, the attack on tractors near the canal and the firing on Army with AK 47s, Hindus emptied 2-3 entire villages of pissful scum which is the reason why the faithfools are angry at SP for not protecting them from the fall out. TFWIW.
I have been given to understand that retaliation took place in right earnest, thats why seculars and their well wishers were whining. But now secular have again resorted to guerilla warfare a la razakar where they hide in sugarcane fields (true ghazis you see) and fire on unarmed farmers engrossed in work. Jats are hemmed by the fact that their licensed arms have been confiscated. One thing though given unabashed show of secularism during the recent visit of shree mms and dona maino, jats are not going to vote for INC or SP or Ajit Singh.
Apropos dainik jagran link, Sompal Shastri would have lost his deposit had he contested Baghpat LS seat on SP seat now.
Muppalla wrote: In eastern UP, they are decisive in another 12 seats including Azamgarh, Bahraich, Gonda, Sravasti, Varanasi, Domariyaganj, Gonda and Balrampur If Modi decides to contest from one of these seats, especially Varanasi, the effect of polarisation will be felt not just in western UP but also in western Bihar/ Bhojpur region.
there is a reason why i always tell folks to not to rely on media reports or analysis WRT politics and election
in Azamgarh the minorities are concentrated in and around Azamgarh and Mao (the district) proper not in the villages rest of the areas
they are in minorities less than 2 percent per village or town population, exception being a town "Lar" bordering Bihar which have 60% of town resident from musalman community,
in Varanasi onree those staying in Aurangabad, Nai Sadak and Madanpura mohalla are of minority community contrary to popular beliefs these zones have elected bhajapa since 94, Moralimanohar Joshi currently represent these areas.
wat in the name of all that is wise and proper is "Bhojpur region" pulled from mushy perhaps.
Thanks. This is what we need to get being on this forum. The media just write a pulp fiction. As this is going to be a truly battleground state first time since early 90s, we really need to collect and discuss/analyze each seat using demographics and Modi wave.
niran wrote: In eastern UP, they are decisive in another 12 seats including Azamgarh, Bahraich, Gonda, Sravasti, Varanasi, Domariyaganj, Gonda and Balrampur If Modi decides to contest from one of these seats, especially Varanasi, the effect of polarisation will be felt not just in western UP but also in western Bihar/ Bhojpur region.
there is a reason why i always tell folks to not to rely on media reports or analysis WRT politics and election
in Azamgarh the minorities are concentrated in and around Azamgarh and Mao (the district) proper not in the villages rest of the areas
they are in minorities less than 2 percent per village or town population, exception being a town "Lar" bordering Bihar which have 60% of town resident from musalman community,
in Varanasi onree those staying in Aurangabad, Nai Sadak and Madanpura mohalla are of minority community contrary to popular beliefs these zones have elected bhajapa since 94, Moralimanohar Joshi currently represent these areas.
wat in the name of all that is wise and proper is "Bhojpur region" pulled from mushy perhaps.
Thanks. This is what we need to get being on this forum. The media just write a pulp fiction. As this is going to be a truly battleground state first time since early 90s, we really need to collect and discuss/analyze each seat using demographics and Modi wave.
BJP should go for full polarization. If this is true then best strategy is already in place.
"The BJP has adopted a two-pronged strategy on communalism in Uttar Pradesh: top brass, including Narendra Modi, will stay silent while local leaders highlight “appeasement” by rivals."
At the heart of the Rae Bareli factory trouble is jobs for the farmers whose land has been acquired. The anger of the villagers of Lalganj, where the factory is located, has been brewing for many months. It burst on Monday, when at least 100 farmers blocked the road leading to the factory and locked its gate. They also organised a sit-in, demanding the management must fulfil its promise on the jobs the project was supposed to have brought.
The farmers whose land was acquired for the rail coach project were angry right from the beginning because the Railways offered only the lowly Group D jobs. They came around only after the Railways announced in November last year that 1,450 vacancies in the pay grade of `1,800 had been approved for the family members of farmers whose land had been used for the factory.
The forms went out, and the next glitch hit. A clause specifying 33 years as the age limit for employment cut off most jobseekers.
Said Ram Kishore Singh Baghel, one of the protesting farmers, "The land of over 1,500 farmers was acquired between 2008 and 2009. There were about 850 farmers whose children were below 33 then. But they were above 33 when the appointment process started last year. The grandchildren of most farmers are also not eligible because they are below 18 years of age."
at least)
