Re: Deterrence
Posted: 08 Apr 2017 01:37
Yes, we have deterrence against China but it hasn't stopped them from arming Pak. I won't be surprised if even the TNWs, alleged MIRV and alleged sub-launched Babur are all with Chinese help.
I will try to explain the perspective. Karnad's prime concern is to harness Indian power towards the role of a great power. These are not some fuzzy words but are defined by him. Towards this objective, Pakistan is deemed to be a distraction. Given that the reality of partition cannot be wished away, he would like to dilute the effects of partition - who's primary effect is on India's power projections capabilities especially as it relates to geo-political power. With Pakistan he has preferred to co-opt the state rather than be in a fight that weakens both with China eating the cake.Supratik wrote:Focus should firmly be on Pakistan. Nuclear posture against China should be defensive. Karnad is trying to distract. Why I don't know.
Karnad, whom you are quoting, has not explained how he will kill the cat.
Expressions like "delusional" and "non realistic" should be eaten side by side with counter expressions like "logical", "sensible" and "practicable"ShauryaT wrote: A view of about 500 warheads against China's estimated 800 is - defensive! Anything less is delusional and non-realistic and giving up on this game of power, chanakian theories aside.
If 5 out of 500 is all that we can hit them with before we are devastated by Chinese nuclear numerical superiority surely it is better to simply ensure that we put at least 10-15 on them and hiding them well among 1000 decoys no?"We don't mind 5 bombs landing on us."
What is the exact rationale behind this numbers game? Whose opinion is "correct"?I am not deterred by 10 but am deterred by 500
I am not deterred by 20 but am deterred by 500
I am not deterred by 30 but am deterred by 500
[..]
I am not deterred by 200 but am deterred by 500
[..]
I am not deterred by 499 but am deterred by 500
Shiv ji: Deterrence as you have said many times is a mind game. For a nation that simply does not want nuclear war at any costs or is unable or unwilling to play this game will be out of contention from this game of power and out fast.shiv wrote: What is the exact rationale behind this numbers game? Whose opinion is "correct"?
Nuclear weapon use does not consist of simply firing them on a city or armored column. They are used in complex geopolitical maneuvering shaping and constraining enemy responses. Consider, that the Pakistani weapon has already been used to murder nearly a hundred thousand Indians (a number similar to casualties from a 20KT weapon on a city) without ever being fired in anger! Similarly, the Chinese weapon has been used for a defacto land(sea) grab in the SCS, the LARGEST landgrab in the history of the world since WW 2 ! If Russians did not have nuclear weapons, their integration of Crimea would not have been tolerated by the world.Gagan wrote:Nobody is going to use a N weapon really. Not India and not china.
It is a d$@k measuring contest which involves displaying scientific and military poweress.
Once a certain yield threshold is proofed, then scientifically we are at par.
Now the problem is, scaled and untested weapons which are deployed. They need backups with proofed heavy FBFs.
This has a bearing on missile range, on number of MIRVs carried. There is a reason why india missile ranges are so conservative, and their throw weights so large. 3000km with a 3 ton throw weight on a 2 staged 1.8 -2 m dia missile!
It is pretty frustrating sir.
But again deterrence is present, for china.
Yes it is a mind game and that is why:ShauryaT wrote: Deterrence as you have said many times is a mind game.
<snip>
But at a very basic level are you really questioning the very rationale of strength in numbers, strength in fire power as a basis for adversarial nations or just the 500 number in context of China?
<snip>
At a certain level, if you really think and I doubt that you do that China is deterred by a few nuclear bombs - reason being they would like to avoid nuclear war at all costs then you have a case but a tall one to prove that China does indeed get deterred by a few bombs (in all situations)
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Effects scaling equations taken from Carey Sublette's Nuclear Weapons FAQ.

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ldev has posted the document above.Singha wrote:http://thediplomat.com/2017/04/indias-2 ... takeaways/
The word minimum is gone. Nfu is there.
Imo we need a mix of 150x150kt for military or industrial targets and 150x400kt for cities...plus another 150 as insurance lic policy. Should be a light tn design with variable yield. That should enough not just to deter china but rest p4 also once we get enough delivery systems in place.
The defining issues for Nuclear C2 is to; maintain a credible deterrence; no first use; civilian authorization; and dispersed arsenal structure to ensure option to retaliate is availablexxv.
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Bharat Karnad – India's Foremost Conservative Strategist
Joint Forces Doctrine — passive, defensive inward-turned, and disappointing
This was not unexpected, but still it is surprising just how unventuresome, diffident, hesitant and, therefore, thoroughly fainthearted the ‘Joint Doctrine Indian Armed Forces’ really is. Issued by Headquarters Integrated Defence Staff (IDS), Ministry of Defence, this document supposedly outlines the jointness mission for the military. As such, it is a fairly innocuous bit of paper indulging in banality-mongering to the max, taking extreme care to not touch on the practical aspects of integrating authority, military resources, and effort. It is a document that at best reflects an intent to realize jointness in the indeterminate future. Because, on the ground, the individual services still reign supreme and who regard IDS more as encumbrance than help.
However, IDS and its work is played up by the military brass whenever they sense movement by government to restructure the higher defence organization by replacing the existing order with a Chief of Defence Staff-system. When Manohar Parrikar was around there was real fear that one fine day he’d take it into his head to get on with the long pending job of major organizational reform and restructuring. Whence, this document was conceived as a way to postponing even an interim solution of a permanent 4-star post as Chairman, Chief of Staff Committee, recommended by the Committee headed by the arch bureaucrat, Naresh Chandra. Known to his 1956 IAS batchmates as “ustaad” for his ability to size up a situation, manage it, run circles around politicians and the lesser civil services, and generally maintain the status quo in which babus are top-dogs (especially in MOD), Chandra was not about to suggest anything radical. Sequentially chief secretary, Rajasthan, and at the centre, defence secretary, home secretary, and finally, cabinet secretary before beginning his unending post-retirement tenures in government, including being retained by Atal Bihari Vajpayee as Indian Ambassador to the United States, Chandra was one of the charter members of the bureaucratic clique that has pushed and pulled Indian policy towards close India-US ties at the expense of every thing else. He sided as cabsec, it may be recalled, with those in Delhi (K. Subrahmanyam, Air Cmde Jasjit Singh, et al) and keeping up the drumbeat from Washington where he was appointed ambassador in 1996 for India to sign the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty. With Finance Minister Arun Jaitley back as part time defence minister, everybody who counts in the military hierarchy seems reassured that the pressure is off, and the incumbent raksha mantri does not have the time or inclination to do anything substantive. In that sense, this “doctrine’ is the military brass’ collective sigh of relief!
There’s much to question in this paper, but here’s my reaction to certain aspects of it (in no particular order of importance) stuck me as troubling.
1) In the sub-sections (pp 1-2) on “National Aim” and “National Interests”, for instance, there’s no mention anywhere about extending India’s influence in South Asia, Asia, and the world. In other words, the Indian armed forces are happy where they are and with the country where it is, namely, sidelined even in the extended region.
In this circumscribed sphere, the armed forces described as the “Military Instrument of National Power” (p. 6) their utility limited to being “a means of deterrence and conflict resolution”. While acknowledging their “coercive nature” the paper stresses the armed forces’ being “gainfully employed” in “non-conflict situations and natural disasters”, in short a uniformed version of Oxfam or similar social service agency.
2) Have railed in all my writings for some 30 years now about the wrong threat perceptions animating the Indian military. When one gets so basic a thing wrong, what can the armed forces get right? Anyway, here’s proof, albeit indirect, about just which threat our military is preoccupied with — Pakistan. In a section entitled “Strategic environment scan”, the document speaks (p. 7) of “the requirement to safeguard our territorial integrity” owing to the “disputed borders” and lists the Line of Control in the west first.
A related section (pp. 8-9) on “Security Threats and Challenges” rather than speaking straightforwardly about China, Pakistan, etc., talks obliquely about competition for resources, of “inherited faultlines” and “increasing blurring lines of traditional and nontraditional challenges”.
3) In pondering the “Nature War (sic) and character of conflict/war” (p. 10), the attributes of future wars are listed as “ambiguous, uncertain, short, swift, lethal, intense, precise, non-linear, unrestricted, unpredictable and hybrid”. Whew! Scrounging together all these adjectives, leaves the big Question open — so what’s India to prepare for??? Because the forces required to fight short, swift, lethal, intense, precise counter-force wars are surely quite distinct and different from those needed to engage in necessarily long duration conflicts that are ambiguous, uncertain, non-linear, unrestricted, unpredictable, and hybrid. When minds are not applied, vapid statements like this result.
It reminds me of Reagan’s jibe against Walter Mondale when the latter advanced a fairly inane proposal in the 1984 US presidential elections – “where’s the beef?”
4) Part of the problem — other than passing off the banal as profound — is with the language. In getting inventive in using the English language, the result is grating, to wit, (p. 12) — “There are four levels of of War; Political/Grand strategic , Military strategic, Operational and Tactical; each level being twisted to the other.” In this construction, “each level being twisted to the other” appears in italics — meaning what the authors themselves know the phrase makes zero sense, or that there’s a meaning the reader is not supposed easily to divine, what…?
Further in a slightly confused discussion on “Generations of War” (p. 13) — again the language and content problem emerges — there is a statement of war transiting quickly from 1st generation to 5th gen hybrid warfare of today which ends with this — “Simply put, it is a war in which one of the major participants is not a State but rather a violent non-state actor or non-state actor sponsored by a State”, thereby synthetically separating non-state actors from the patronage of the adversary state, which division carries little weight in the practical world.
In the section following on “India in Conflict/War” (p. 14), the paper refers to an “operationally adaptable force” almost as an imperative without anywhere explaining how the country is to obtain it. This harks back to my #3 above. Is such a force to be the all-purpose military capable of short intense wars as also long duration attrition conflicts? If so, it was all the more necessary IDS had at least sketched out how this is to be achieved and at what cost.
5) In the chapter on “Military — An Instrument of National Power” and section therein concerning “Functions of Military Power” that dilates on conventional offensive and defensive operations (p. 19), we have such gems as “offensive operations” to address “The adversary’s centre of gravity” by “attacking enemy’s criticalities….” etc. If this is a primer on the military, what is such stuff doing in a doctrine? This is succeeded by a para on offensive ops wherein is semi-detailed “A philosophy of pro-active defence” that the doucument claims is “most suited for India”, which is revealing of the Indian military’s attitude generally, perhaps, mirroring the Indian Government’s mindset. In trying to conform to NSA Ajit Doval’s fairly elementary rendition of “offensive defence”, this document — emphasizes “defensive operations” by “ensuring security of own forces, secur[ing] bases for launching forces and creat[ing] favourable conditions for offensive operations”.
In line with such thinking is the section on “International Defence Cooperation” (p.22) which talks of this pol-mil-diplomatic activity without once mentioning the absolute predicate for such military outreach and presence, namely, bases in the Indian Ocean Region and in the states on the landward periphery (such as in Central Asia). Staying and operating from homeland bases, the country is expected to “leverage” the achievement of “National Security Objectives”. This is like proposing to lift a tub while standing in it. Hard, in the event, to take much of this document seriously.
6) This unsophisticated, college sophomore-level paper rounds out by analyzing Jointness, observing correctly, for a change, that military integration is mandated by resource constraints and will make possible “centralized planning” and appropriate allocation of resources to obtain “the right mix [of forces] at the right time and place” and “a high level of cross-domain synergy”. (p. 39) But after saying all this about the urgent need for integrating the military and realizing that they had gone out on a limb with their masters, IDS quickly backtracks, reiterating on the very next page (p. 40) that all the preceding material notwithstanding, “It does not imply physical integration” of the three armed services.
7) This is almost a throwaway line, but on page 50, the document asserts, in the context of establishing a joint “Special Operations Division” the fact that “the possibility of a conventional war under a nuclear overhang recedes with attendant political and international compulsions” but stops short of saying that this is just the reason for a major overhaul of the extant military force structure, especially the rationalization of the three strike corps for exclusive use on the Pakistan front into a single composite corps that I have been advocating for nearly 25 years now, and transferring the materiel and human resources to form additional two offensive mountain corps for use against the Chinese PLA in Tibet. This would be the sort of force rejig that cries out to be implemented. Except the existing armed services are inclined to preserve and protect their autonomy at all cost, and even at the expense of the national interest.
More disarmingly, this IDS paper is upfront about needing to strike “a balance between indigenisation and foreign purchase essential to India’s military independence and modernization” (p. 54). This translates into continued reliance on imported armaments even though any level of foreign purchases is inimical to the country’s “military independence”.
9) And absent is any nod to the nuclear deterrent other than a wary affirmation of credible but minimum deterrence that reflects lack of deep insights and knowledge in the field. The doctrine refers to the need to shift force structuring from a threat-based template to a capability-based one. The Indian strategic deterrent too could do with a similar change in its fundamentals.
10) And, finally, there’s a pointed last page (61) reference to the perennial military-bureaucrat tension, saying “The functionaries in the MoD ought to be enablers” and facilitators of “free flowing communication” between the political class and the armed services, to make possible “critical and timely decision making” rather than being another variety of vested interests gumming up the works in the national security field.
——-
Taken in toto though, this paper is a lot of thin air masquerading as Joint Doctrine. Pity about this. Because serious thought is warranted regarding all aspects of the Indian military. Alas, this paper contains little of that.
It has something to do with the marginal rate of deterrence. going from 2 to 4 the marginal dieterrence doesn't go up as steeply as going from say 256 to 512. But going from 512 to 1024 is not that important. If you can convince the enemy to be deterred that you have the capacity to go from 256 to 512 or already have (through the means like decoys and displaying empty red-light twinkling bombs a la SPECTRE which Bond gets to handle to save the world) mentioned by you, hakim ji, or really having done that and leak it through double agents), then the purpose is achieved.shiv wrote:Of course this entire argument is time-pass but I do think Karnad puts up timepass arguments A nation that does not want nuclear war will likely be deterred at the thought of just 10 bombs falling on their nation let alone 200 or 500. I have not understood the logic that says " I am not deterrred by 10 but I am deterred by 500"
The endless timepass comes from this numbers gameWhat is the exact rationale behind this numbers game? Whose opinion is "correct"?I am not deterred by 10 but am deterred by 500
I am not deterred by 20 but am deterred by 500
I am not deterred by 30 but am deterred by 500
[..]
I am not deterred by 200 but am deterred by 500
[..]
I am not deterred by 499 but am deterred by 500
Pakistan has built a nuclear weapons storage facility, till now unknown, at the foot of Peer Than Mountain near Haripur in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. Evidences suggest Pakistan would have deployed its nuclear missiles of Shaheen series in the facility, posing a grave threat to the whole of India.
Prasant wrote:Not sure if this has been discussed before, but here it is:
India’s Nuclear ExceptionalismThe author estimates that India's current stockpile is sufficient for ~2200 to 2600 warheads, while Pakistan's is sufficient for 207. Paki author, so to be taken with a pinch of salt.In this Project on Managing the Atom Discussion Paper, Mansoor Ahmed examines India’s fissile material production capacity and the military potential of its unsafeguarded nuclear fuel cycle and energy program. The paper details India’s existing nuclear arsenal and its potential for expansion, with a focus on three key areas, namely:
The principles governing the separation of India’s civil and military fuel cycle facilities;
The size and weapons potential of India’s existing unsafeguarded stocks of weapons-grade highly enriched uranium and plutonium as well as its unsafeguarded stockpile of reactor-grade plutonium (maintained as a “strategic reserve” and as fuel for India’s fast breeder program); and
The fissile material production capacity of its reactor fleet, its existing and planned reprocessing facilities, and growing uranium enrichment program.
The paper suggests that India’s existing and future nuclear capability fuels regional security anxieties with Pakistan and impedes progress on the early conclusion of a Fissile Material Cut-off Treaty. Dr. Ahmed offers policy recommendations for managing the South Asian fissile material conundrum and calls for a transparent and verifiable separation of civil and military fuel cycle and reactor programs in India and beyond.
India continues to modernize its nuclear arsenal, with at least four new weapon systems nowunder development to complement or replace existing nuclear-capable aircraft, land-baseddelivery systems, and sea-based systems. India is estimated to have produced enough plutoniumfor 150–200 nuclear warheads but has likely produced only 120–130. Nonetheless, additionalplutonium will be required to produce warheads for missiles now under development, and Indiais reportedly building two new plutonium production facilities. India’s nuclear strategy, which hastraditionally focused on Pakistan, now appears to place increased emphasis on China.
Yusuf Unjhawala@YusufDFI wrote:Ayatollahs Kristensen & Norris keep estimating Indian nukes at lower numbers with the hope of getting rebuttal from India. Won't happen
I agree. To be more specific its like Prisoners Dilemma. Only difference here is the US wants to create this equal=equal between India and Bakistan. But this positioning is merely to ensure India-Bakistan achieve the MAD and permit China to be the other pole of G2.Vayutuvan wrote: Game theory is all mind games only after all - including stock markets, dating, a or poker.
DrRatnadip wrote:http://m.economictimes.com/news/defence ... 789364.cms
Musharraf planned to use nukes against India after 2001 attack, claims report
Pakistan's former military dictator Gen Pervez Musharraf says he mulled the use of nuclear weapons against India amid tensions following the 2001 terror attack on the Indian Parliament, but decided against doing so out of fear of retaliation, according to a media report.
Musharraf, 73, also recalled that he had many sleepless nights, asking himself whether he would or could deploy nuclear weapons, the Japanese daily 'Mainichi Shimbun' said.
The former president disclosed that amid tensions between India and Pakistan following the 2001 terrorist attack on the Indian Parliament, he contemplated the use of nuclear weapons, but decided against doing so out of fear of retaliation
partha wrote:Nice tool to visualize missile range and area of destruction.
http://nuclearsecrecy.com/missilemap/#
Select a missile preset (for example, Agni 3) and select an area of impact (for example, GHQ, Rawalpindi) and zoom in to the target.