Some thoughts on the current situation in Bangladesh, especially in the aftermath of the killing of Hadi
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Here's a short summary :
The loss of East Pakistan was primarily due to the incompatibility of Bengali identity of East with the predominantly Punjabi identity of West and the racism that West Pakistani establishment displayed towards their fellow citizens from East Pakistan. However, those differences seem to have been subsumed by the religious identity that supposedly binds the Bangladeshis and the Pakistanis now. One key factor in this was the unbanning and the political rehabilitation of the Jamaat 'e Islami by the govt of General Zia ur Rehman in Bangladesh within six years of the independence of Bangladesh, despite the Jamaat having fought tooth and nail AGAINST the independence of East Pakistan. So much so, that the Jamaat even formed part of the Govt headed by Begum Khaleda Zia in 2001.
The racism of the Pakjabis towards the Bangladeshis has still not died down and continues to raise its head from time to time. However, thus far the Bangladeshis are still under the 'euphoria' of revolution to be able to see that. This, despite the fact that the 'revolution' of August 2024 has well and truly failed to improve the lives of the common people. If anything, then the lives have only become worse due to the plummeting economic performance of the Bangladeshi economy.
Yunus himself is quite likely to be made the sacrificial pawn by the time dust settles. But that still doesn't change the fact that there is an East Pakistan across India's borders all over again, thankfully without nuclear weapons. Once again, in the larger scheme of things, West Pakistan would hardly care what happens to the Bengalis of East Pakistan, so long as the Western Wing is safe and Indian energies and resources are committed across East Pakistan to whatever degree. This only reduces the pressure on West Pakistan. Needless to say, chaos in India's neighbourhood also suits other players including the USA.
However, herein also lies an opportunity.
India has been a fairly passive and benevolent neighbour to Bangladesh thus far. Pushed to a wall, retribution in various forms is definitely to be expected. It is just a matter of 'when' and in 'what form' that needs to be seen.
This chaos would still have erupted, regardless of the killing of Osman Hadi. It does not matter who killed him. If not him, then someone else would have had to die, but the chaos had already been planned and would have erupted nonetheless. What remains to be seen is how it ends and whether it is East Pakistan or West Pakistan that bears the brunt in the next round.
As far as the possible refugee situation goes, in case it comes to that, refugees must be taken care of .. but across the border in East Pakistan, IMO. Pakistan lost its Eastern Wing in 1971 primarily due to the refugee influx into India. This time round too it shouldn't be any different if it comes to that.
JMTs