Eastern Europe/Ukraine [Feb 6th 2015]

Deans · Post by **Deans** » 17 Mar 2022 14:26

Baikul wrote:Whether one’s sympathetic to Ukraine or Russia, a few trends are clear IMO.

1. That - leave aside the Donbas region and perhaps some
pockets - the Ukrainian population by and large are opposed to the Russian intervention. Zelenskyy has national acceptance as a war leader. Centuries of intermarriage and association with Russia aside, this is a ‘popular war’ for the Ukrainians.

2. At the same time, despite news about anti- war protests in Russia, the bulk of the Russian population seems to be supportive of Putin. Whether this will continue after sanctions start to bite (if they bite) remains to be seen. But it doesn’t pay to discount the patriotism of the average Russian.

3. As some here had predicted early on, at minimum this war isn’t going as planned for Russia. Interviews with Russian POWS (if you believe them) repeatedly suggest that the Russians expected a different kind of welcome from the locals.

I definitely don’t think Putin is walking away from this without at least selling this as a win to his people. I also don’t know what both sides would consider a minimum acceptable solutions. So far they seem to be at cross purposes.

The ethnic Russian population of Ukraine is about 25% However, in Presidential elections the candidate who wanted closer ties to Russia got close to 50% As a buffer state between the West and Russia, Ukraine should ideally have pursued friendly ties with both. It's never a good idea to chose one side over the other. The Russian invasion is certainly opposed by the non Russian population, but post war, they might also ask if it was a good idea to have antagonized Russia in the first place (since the side they backed, never intervened in the way they hoped).

The bulk of the Russian population will support their soldiers in the field (may not be the govt) and are also capable of enduring losses and hardship that no Western govt can imagine. I am sceptical about POW confessions. Apart from violating the Geneve convention, every Russian knows that the worst crime you could ever commit is being labelled `traitor to the motherland'.

The war isn't going as planned. If the `shock and awe' strategy where Ukraine would fold in 1 week didn't work, then the alternative is that Russia fights the way it traditionally has (or as US has) with overwhelming firepower and disregard for casualties on either side.

LakshmanPST · Post by **LakshmanPST** » 17 Mar 2022 14:28

vimal wrote:Ok, i think we should get a little careful here. I'm not sure why so many people are cheering for Russia here.

I already posted the answer before in this thread and posting it again---->
----
Putin is taking on an enemy that is quite familiar to us---> US Deep State...
I don't think many here want Putin to win because of love for Putin/Russia/Soviet Union... I think they want US Deep State to lose...
Everyone (atleast here) knows how US Deep State works---> brainwashing common ppl, cultivating local assets, subtle and non-subtle propaganda against your leaders, protests, revolutions etc. before installing their puppets by 'democratic' means...
Any leader that cracksdown on the local assets of Deep State have faced lot of troubles... This is why not everyone took on them head-on...

While it is true that Putin himself want his own puppet to be installed in Ukraine, the fact that Putin's enemy is our very familiar enemy is sub-consciously making some of us biased towards Russia...

dnivas · Post by **dnivas** » 17 Mar 2022 14:59

{Deleted all the personal to and fro}

Russia had very reasonable demands before the war
1. implement the Minsk accord [stalled since 2015]
2. Neutral territory
3. Decrease fraternising with NATO
3. recognize Crimea

Now on account of the war, the likely result is
1. new countries east of Dneiper
2. Neutral territory
3. Nyet to NATO forever
4. decreased military
5. Loss of coastline

i mean this is ridiculous that Zel is still in power. any PM after such a loss would be 'MAIDANed'. Well hopefully Ukr realize that they have been taken in by a Ukr Kejriwal and Zel will be the next Guiado in DC.

sajo · Post by **sajo** » 17 Mar 2022 15:00

LakshmanPST wrote: Putin is taking on an enemy that is quite familiar to us---> US Deep State...

Maybe OT :
Tucker Carlson made me aware of another name for the same : Permanent Washington , the set who benefits most from the war(s).

So the invasion was no surprise to the Biden administration. They knew that would happen. That was the point of the exercise.

We watched all this happen. We missed it. How? Honestly, because it was insane, and therefore, very hard to take seriously. Why in the world would the United States intentionally seek war with Russia? How could we possibly benefit from that war?

We still don't know the answer to that question, but it is obvious that permanent Washington has been fixated on a war with Russia for a very long time.

A couple of years ago, you may remember, we'd forgotten, they impeached a sitting President. Why? For threatening to withhold military aid to President Zelenskyy of Ukraine. Failing to back a proxy war in Ukraine was the one thing Donald Trump was not allowed to do as President. Again, they impeached him for it.

Full Transcript Link

And More Interesting stuff, also featuring Permanent Washington .

I am afraid Tucker's days may be numbered.

dnivas · Post by **dnivas** » 17 Mar 2022 15:09

My SHQ who again is not the biggest fan of Russia clued me in on this parody song about Putin from a few years ago. Kinda funny. Hope you enjoy

Baikul · Post by **Baikul** » 17 Mar 2022 16:01

I was thinking about the possibly thousands of ATGMs and MANPADS flooding Ukraine, not to mention all sorts of other arms. Surely terrorist groups/ non state actors must be salivating at the prospects of getting their hands on a few.

Manish_Sharma · Post by **Manish_Sharma** » 17 Mar 2022 16:12

@KanwalSibal:

1.Being pro-US doesn’t require being anti-Russian. Pro-US lobbies in India now pro-active in media to advocate ditching Russia in favour of US (Harsh Pant in HT t’day) who lionises Zelenskyy, bemoans end of “liberal peace”in Europe(Nato extension/Yugoslavia liberal peacemaking?)

https://twitter.com/KanwalSibal/status/ ... bjkFQ&s=09

2.Pant disparages Putin,welcomes militarisation of Europe & Germany,revived Nato-Europe ties. Says India-Russia defence ties unsustainable & rupture with Russia inevitable.Presumes all this is in India’s interest. Who is encouraging these voices seen close to our establishment?
https://twitter.com/KanwalSibal/status/ ... ZEHfQ&s=19

Thakur_B · Post by **Thakur_B** » 17 Mar 2022 16:23

Baikul wrote:I was thinking about the possibly thousands of ATGMs and MANPADS flooding Ukraine, not to mention all sorts of other arms. Surely terrorist groups/ non state actors must be salivating at the prospects of getting their hands on a few.

Azov batallion has being tying up with western European and North American Neo mazis through telegram channels so now they are getting active combat experience.

Not too long ago, Azov battallion duked it out with Ukrainian security forces before they were officially recognised.

Now with even more weapons in hand, a soft / hard coup to replace the comedian can't be ruled out in near future.

Imagine guys with 1488 tattoos having fully automatic rifles and javelin missiles.

Baikul · Post by **Baikul** » 17 Mar 2022 16:57

Thakur_B wrote:
Baikul wrote:I was thinking about the possibly thousands of ATGMs and MANPADS flooding Ukraine, not to mention all sorts of other arms. Surely terrorist groups/ non state actors must be salivating at the prospects of getting their hands on a few.
Azov batallion has being tying up with western European and North American Neo mazis through telegram channels so now they are getting active combat experience..:::.

Imagine guys with 1488 tattoos having fully automatic rifles and javelin missiles.

I’m imagining some guys with beards in Kashmir…javelins plus ‘plausible deniability’:

Baikul · Post by **Baikul** » 17 Mar 2022 19:00

Deans wrote:
Baikul wrote:Whether one’s sympathetic to Ukraine or Russia, a few trends are clear IMO.
…..
The ethnic Russian population of Ukraine is about 25% However, in Presidential elections the candidate who wanted closer ties to Russia got close to 50% As a buffer state between the West and Russia, Ukraine should ideally have pursued friendly ties with both. …….

…. , every Russian knows that the worst crime you could ever commit is being labelled `traitor to the motherland'.

The war isn't going as planned. ……the alternative is that Russia fights the way it traditionally has (or as US has) with overwhelming firepower and disregard for casualties on either side.

It’s always good to get perspective from someone who has closer personal interactions with people on the ground.

Overall I am not sure that an accord will be reached given that both sides have outlined some fundamentally opposite positions.

As you’d stated, overwhelming firepower and casualties seem the way ahead. And once this happens in Kyiv and Odessa, it’s going to reach a whole new level of bloodiness and controversy.

Edit - I think a lot more attention should be paid to what you said about ‘traitor to the motherland’ to get an insight into the Russian psyche and key drivers. In my years of random reading I’ve done on Russia also suggest an almost mystic connection the Russian peasant has with his land/ country. But my perspective is theoretical.

sanjaykumar · Post by **sanjaykumar** » 17 Mar 2022 19:12

Where is Philip? His views would be interesting.

Rudradev · Post by **Rudradev** » 17 Mar 2022 19:13

It's really simple.

Russia wants (A) China and (B) Islamists on its side. The former for financial support, the latter as terrorists/cannon-fodder.

USA wants (A) China and (B) Islamists on its side. The former to make Wall Street happy and isolate Russia, the latter as terrorists/cannon-fodder.

Both China and Islamists hate India, and part of the price they will ask from EITHER Russia OR USA is to reciprocally help them subjugate or destroy India. Whether that help comes in the form of financial/resource assistance, logistical support, diplomatic cover, technology/weapons transfer, or whatever.

Whoever gives more such support (against India) to China and the Islamists, will have these two on its side.

You see where this leaves India?

Mort Walker · Post by **Mort Walker** » 17 Mar 2022 19:14

There is sketchy information of the total amount of MANPADs delivered to Ukraine. It may be on the order of 50,000 units total from the US, NATO and former Russian stock purchased from other countries. These will invariably be caught in the hands of terrorists and criminals.

Mort Walker · Post by **Mort Walker** » 17 Mar 2022 19:21

China wants (A) the US, (B) Russia and (C) the Islamists on its side whatever the outcome is. India, Japan, Korea and SE Asia will be under Chinese control.

Baikul · Post by **Baikul** » 17 Mar 2022 19:26

On a separate note, for those interested, below are some of the more popular combat videos to have emerged from this war - incredible footage. I’m not including the one where the KA-52 was shot down, assuming it’s already widely shared (and was shared here as well)

Ukrainian aircraft flies into the ground on a bombing mission

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=XMgXw8UPO_c

Russian tank ambushed and destroyed likely in Mariupol

https://www.reddit.com/r/CombatFootage/ ... ame=iossmf

Ukrainian BTR taking on a Russian tank and a BMP possibly also in Mariupol street fighting.

https://www.reddit.com/r/CombatFootage/ ... ame=iossmf

Mort Walker · Post by **Mort Walker** » 17 Mar 2022 20:21

sanjaykumar wrote:Where is Philip? His views would be interesting.

I think he was permanently banned. This is a private forum and mods can do whatever they like.

eklavya · Post by **eklavya** » 17 Mar 2022 20:39

Marina Ovsyannikova: Protesting journalist says Russians zombified by propaganda

A Russian journalist who interrupted a live TV news programme to protest against the war in Ukraine says Russians are "zombified" by propaganda.

Speaking to the BBC, Marina Ovsyannikova said Russians should stop listening to state media coverage.

"I understand it's very hard... to find alternative information, but you need to try to look for it," she said.

Ms Ovsyannikova also responded to various allegations in Russian media about her motivation for staging the protest. "There are lots of conspiracy theories building up about me," she said.

"That's why I had to explain to the world what really happened, the fact that I am just a normal Russian woman, but I could not remain on the sidelines."

KLNMurthy · Post by **KLNMurthy** » 17 Mar 2022 21:14

Mort Walker wrote:I agree with Ramana, we really don’t have any dog in this fight aside from keeping low energy prices and delivery of Russian weapon systems already paid for. The latter is going to be delayed indefinitely.

Europeans including the Russians are nasty towards Indians. They have this propensity to think of themselves as superior. They are barbarians hell bent on killing each for the 3rd time in 100 years.

We, as Indians, resident and non-, should be concerned about economic consequences. And about the fact that the powerful white propaganda machinery has built a very successful anti-Russian, anti-Putin narrative and created a McCarthyist atmosphere.

India, Hindus and Modi will feel the repercussions of this. Many of the MSM articles I am reading about Putin-this and Purin-that also attack India, Hindus and Modi in a tangential but matter-of-fact way. (As in, “just like Putin, Mudi also changed India into a fascist Yindoi nationalist dictatorship”)

Ultimately all Indians, resident or non- will be affected.

We should recognize what is happening. And figure out what we can do.

If not a grown up dog, we have at least a puppy in this fight.

vinod · Post by **vinod** » 17 Mar 2022 21:42

We definitely have an interest in the outcome of this war. At the end of this war, Russia should emerge stronger so that it is not dependent on China. Anything else is bad for India.
Right now, as each day proceeds, I can't see anyway that happening.

skumar · Post by **skumar** » 17 Mar 2022 22:10

End game of this war from Russiam side will include -

Deletion of NATO membership goal from Ukrainian constitution, allowing conditional security gurantees to Ukraine by NATO if they formally exclude Ukraine forever.
Recognition of Crimea as a Russian province; it is a fait accompli but an assertion will help avoid stupid statements in the future from Ukraine like the one Zelenskyy made.
Recognition of DPR and LPR as autonomous regions with a possible referendum in a couple of years.
Revokation of all sanctions. Russia will squeeze Ukraine to force the west to agree. There is a purpose behind Zelenskyy getting so much attention.
May be something about Finland though at this point, Russia does not care too much about Finland. Finland is wiser than Ukraine.

Russia is playing a waiting game by capturing some minor cities and laying siege to major cities, without all out aggression (which is the reason they call it a "special ops" though for the people dying on the other side, it is still war).

Rudradev · Post by **Rudradev** » 17 Mar 2022 22:25

The West is not going to be happy with Russia calling off the attack and pulling back its troops based on some 'face saving' commitments from Ukraine.

The West-- especially the current administration in the US, which is 100% aligned with Permanent Washington-- is determined to use this opportunity to destroy Russia, destroy Putin, and associate the massive humiliation of Russia with the misadventures of Putin and the folly of Russian revanchism in the minds of the Russian public. That is their goal. They will stop at nothing short of that.

Xi has once again shown himself to be the coward we knew he was after Doklam (and later, following the Galwan incident). He builds up troops and conducts Instagrammable military exercises at a safe distance from LAC on the Tibetan plateau. He makes incursions in areas where he knows the IA is not patrolling at any given moment. But when IA dispatched 80+ of his princeling conscripts at Galwan, his big brave response was to make the failed commander of the relevant PLA unit into a national hero (torchbearer at the Beijing winter Olympics)... as if that makes up for the drubbing they received. Meanwhile, faced with the highly unpleasant task of confronting the Indian Army at Ladakh or Arunachal Pradesh, four PLA generals have been rotated in and out of Western Theatre Command because they decided discretion was the better part of valour. The Cheenis don't have the stomach for the kind of fight that awaits them if they attack India, and for all their bravado, they know it well.

In the Russia/Ukraine situation as well, Xi has hardly stuck by the commitment of "limitless cooperation" he made to Putin earlier this year. Instead, he is using the leverage of his position to bargain with the West, and has shown every sign that he will ditch Putin altogether if the West offers him enough incentive.

I don't think there is much India can do about this. But it will be a setback to any sense of a multipolar world-- and a reversion to Clinton-era G2 co-dominium-- if the West succeeds in the goal it has set for itself with respect to Russia. Thereafter, both the West and China can devote themselves to the leisurely task of destroying Modi sarkar and rolling back whatever progress India has made since the UPA days. And there will be no one but ourselves to stop them.

Jay · Post by **Jay** » 17 Mar 2022 22:27

skumar wrote:End game of this war from Russiam side will include -

Deletion of NATO membership goal from Ukrainian constitution, allowing conditional security gurantees to Ukraine by NATO if they formally exclude Ukraine forever.

Recognition of Crimea as a Russian province; it is a fait accompli but an assertion will help avoid stupid statements in the future from Ukraine like the one Zelenskyy made.

Recognition of DPR and LPR as autonomous regions with a possible referendum in a couple of years.

Revokation of all sanctions. Russia will squeeze Ukraine to force the west to agree. There is a purpose behind Zelenskyy getting so much attention.

May be something about Finland though at this point, Russia does not care too much about Finland. Finland is wiser than Ukraine.
Russia is playing a waiting game by capturing some minor cities and laying siege to major cities, without all out aggression (which is the reason they call it a "special ops" though for the people dying on the other side, it is still war).

I think 1 will happen.2 & 3 will be some give and take and may require some modifications. 4 will not happen until Putin's influence is gone from Russian politics.

vinod · Post by **vinod** » 17 Mar 2022 22:28

skumar wrote:
[*]Revokation of all sanctions. Russia will squeeze Ukraine to force the west to agree. There is a purpose behind Zelenskyy getting so much attention.

Why should squeezing Ukraine result in removing all sanctions? All these efforts were to provoke Russia to get involved in a war so that they can impose these crippling sanctions. Now, if they could sacrifice a whole country, why would they agree to any relaxation just because Ukraine is in bad situation?

Just like oil and gas is out of sanctions, they will only relax ones that is hurting them the most. Otherwise these Russian sanctions are to stay for a while, at least till putin goes.

Russia will have to find leverage points which involve NATO directly than anything to do with Ukraine. May be, Iran, Syria? I'm waiting for Putin to reveal his next play after this war is over.

yensoy · Post by **yensoy** » 17 Mar 2022 22:51

vinod wrote:We definitely have an interest in the outcome of this war. At the end of this war, Russia should emerge stronger so that it is not dependent on China. Anything else is bad for India.
Right now, as each day proceeds, I can't see anyway that happening.

It is not just that they might end up depending on China, but China will essentially take over the exploitation and possible occupation of the huge and rich landmass of Siberia.

But things don't look great for the Russians, and they have only themselves to blame. Even if they were to "win" and get control of Ukraine, they lack any financial muscle to fund its rebuilding which is a minimum requirement for them to win the loyalty of Ukrainian people. The Chinese will conveniently step in of course. The big "if" being that Russia wins the war.

GShankar · Post by **GShankar** » 17 Mar 2022 22:54

If Putin is "smart", he needs to realize that the best way to stop the west is to "align" with India to balkanize china.

And make Russia - India pipeline through free Tibet (whose safety may be guaranteed by Russia and India for the time being).

hnair · Post by **hnair** » 17 Mar 2022 22:55

Folks commenting about each other being here - keep it impersonal and relevant to Indian interests. Example: some military gear worked or did not work. And maybe cheap oil or western hypocrisy etc which India has faced a bit etc. Also LINKS please.

Rest all who are targeting John, this is not a thread about John. If you have a problem with any poster, use the report function. This is relevant to other side too, who throw around accusations of “pro-Russia”. If this persists it will have to be sorted out.

And Philip was given many, many, many…many warnings by multiple admins to not troll before being let off after consultation by admins. No more about him also here.

Also ekalavya, can we move past the Russian lady who trolled that news channel? Two days of posts about her is a bit too much and that too about an event that has some comical value but nothing else for this forum.

Let us keep this thread clean and interesting

ldev · Post by **ldev** » 18 Mar 2022 00:12

What is unambiguous so far is that Russian armor has not fared well and is vulnerable to the 2nd/3rd gen ATGMs like the Javelin and NLAW. That has stalled Russian advances into the cities as armor will be even more vulnerable in an urban setting. However, even out in the countryside Russian armor is vulnerable to Turkish Bayraktar TB2 drones and the supply of Switchblade loitering suicide drones that the US has now promised Ukraine.

Russia does not still have air supremacy due to it's historical war doctrine i.e. PGMs for ground interdiction have never been a big part of Soviet/Russian doctrine and hence the Russian Air Force has not been successful in targeting Ukranian SAM units. Plus Ukraine is likely to get reinforcements of OSA-AKM, S-300 and S-300V systems from other countries.

How much territory will Russia want under it's control before it considers a ceasefire? It is clear now that occupying the whole of Ukraine is not possible. I think it is also most likely that sanctions on Russia will not be lifted until Putin is in power. However the oil and gas exports that are allowed under the sanctions regime enable Russia to earn ~ $ 1 billion a day at current prices so while Putin is under economic pressure, this stalemate could last awhile.

Also on the larger geopolitical front:

Biden and Xi are going to have a conversation on Friday.

Bild is reporting that on Thursday Lavrov's plane was halfway to Beijing before it did a U-turn and flew back to Moscow.

Indian news reports saying that Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi is wanting to visit India.

And the set up to the above meetings is the marathon 7 hour meeting in Rome a few days ago between US National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan and Yang Jiechi, Chinese Communist Party Politburo Member and Director of the Office of the Foreign Affairs Commission.

How do all the geopolitical dots above connect together?

V_Raman · Post by **V_Raman** » 18 Mar 2022 00:33

India will not abandon Russia whatever be the offer - short of nukes get involved. We might eat grass for that - but that is just us. IMVVHO, JM2c et. al.

Rudradev · Post by **Rudradev** » 18 Mar 2022 00:54

Lei's Real Talk (a YouTube channel featuring fairly balanced commentary about PRC) seems to think Xi will continue finding ways to support Putin economically while putting up the appearance of adhering to most Western sanctions.

kit · Post by **kit** » 18 Mar 2022 01:36

Dozens Killed By Ukrainian Cluster Bomb Attack On Center Donetsk

kit · Post by **kit** » 18 Mar 2022 01:39

American Colonel Col Macgregor told some facts about the situation in Ukraine. His main point are:

Still active Ukrainian units are cut off and surrounded in various settlements. They are capable of only small attacks on insignificant objects. The outcome of the war is predetermined.

For the Russian army, the main problem was initially the requirement to advance without great destruction and civilian casualties. This creates the illusion of slow progress, which the West uses to convince the whole world that Russia is losing.

The war can be ended quickly by scoring destruction and casualties, but Putin categorically does not need this. 70% of Russian citizens support their president - that's a lot.

In the south-east of Ukraine, 16 thousand soldiers of the Armed Forces of Ukraine are surrounded. This has been going on for several days, and it is not known how much they have left. But Russia is not interested in their destruction - it is better that they surrender.

The Russian army is trying to avoid the central part of Ukraine so as not to enter the fields so as not to interfere with the sowing campaign.

The task of the Russian army is to take control of all important objects. The territory of Russia is not needed - only the destruction of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. The goal is almost reached, without taking into account the troops in the environment.

Mariupol is a big problem: there are a lot of Nazis from Azov, which is fraught with great destruction. But McGregor doesn't know what the Russian high command has in mind.

In the United States, they are rubbing about universal evil in the person of Putin, all information about the events until 2014, about 14 thousand dead during the conflict in Donbass, is hushed up. But McGregor is confident that the truth will come out anyway.

The biggest lie on American TV is about the order of the Russian Army to kill Ukrainian civilians. Mistakes happen, but intentional killings are out of the question.

sanjaykumar · Post by **sanjaykumar** » 18 Mar 2022 01:57

Who is this dude? Why is he not hysterical? Why does his perspective fit the data?

kit · Post by **kit** » 18 Mar 2022 02:18

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Douglas_Macgregor

vinod · Post by **vinod** » 18 Mar 2022 02:23

Russians do have air superiority, at least to the extent what they want. There are lot of evidences to that effect.

1. Zelensky's main demand. Impose no fly zone. Why is he desperate for it, if it is anywhere contested as they say.
2. Request for mig 29 (Poland fiasco) if they have adequate planes, why ask for more?
3. S 300 requested. Again, why ask for it?
4. The big convoy was stuck and if they Ukraine had 56 planes remaining, then why didn't they go all out against that juicy targets in a massive highway of death. But nothing happened.

So, in conclusion, Russia has air superiority over the area of their interest. There are not many Russian planes flying over Ukraine now.

What is happening is hit and run by Ukrainians.

Very few sorties a day are flown from western Ukraine, probably guided by NATO and take opportunity hits. They usually get taken out Russian air defence from within Russian borders.

Drones - similar story. They also do similar hit and run.

Otherwise, Russia has control over the skies. Stingers are the main threat now.

nachiket · Post by **nachiket** » 18 Mar 2022 02:42

Baikul wrote:
Thakur_B wrote:
Azov batallion has being tying up with western European and North American Neo mazis through telegram channels so now they are getting active combat experience..:::.

Imagine guys with 1488 tattoos having fully automatic rifles and javelin missiles.
I’m imagining some guys with beards in Kashmir…javelins plus ‘plausible deniability’:

Beards in Kashmir get whatever weapons the pakis give them. If pakis get their hands on surplus Javelins from Ukraine, they will keep them for their own army. Not waste them on the beards. Javelins would be far more useful to them to target Indian tanks and border fortifications in a war. We don't use tanks and APC's for Kashmir COIN ops. The jeeps/buses used can far more easily be attacked with RPG's and IED's like in Pulwama.

Rudradev · Post by **Rudradev** » 18 Mar 2022 03:06

So assuming that all Col. McGregor has said is true, what is the endgame for Putin?

1- He definitely wants to wipe out the hardcore nationalist, Russophobic Ukrainian military and paramilitary formations. Azov Brigade, etc. That's what he meant by "de-Nazification".

2- He wants to severely degrade the capacity of even the mainstream Ukrainian military to mount highly destructive campaigns against the Donbass republics. Such campaigns are supposed to have cost the lives of 14,000 Russian-speaking Ukrainians in Donbass over the past 8 years. Every artillery piece, drone, ground-attack aircraft, tank lost to the Ukrainian military is one that cannot be deployed against the now-independent DPR and LPR in future. This is what he meant by "demilitarization".

3- Surrounding and besieging the cities-- this is a psychological warfare move, just as the West's sanctions aimed at creating popular disaffection against Putin in Russia are psychological, and likewise the almost endless stream of Western-sponsored claims regarding Russian losses (in conventional and social media) are designed for the same psychological effect: to sap the will of the enemy to fight.

Putin calculates that if he can starve out the civilian populations of Kiev, Mariupol, Kharkiv, Kherson etc... at some point, deprived of food/water/electricity/internet, those populations will revolt. They will rise up against the hardline Ukrainian govt forces who insist on continuing the fight against a hopeless siege that nobody is coming to rescue them from. At that point, Zelenskyy's legitimacy to rule will nosedive, public support for the Kiev government's resistance efforts will evaporate, and ultimately the cities will fall without much resistance. Then the current ruling dispensation in Ukraine can be discredited at the popular level, and a new one installed in its place.

The US and allies calculate the opposite. If they can sustain current levels of economic and psychological pressure against the Russian military and civilians for long enough, they will mutiny and overthrow Putin. That serves the ultimate aim of the West in this war (regime change in Moscow, not "saving Ukraine") at relatively little direct cost to the West or NATO.

So this part of the war is a pure contest of attrition-- to see who can hold out the longest, the Russian people against Western sanctions and psyops or the Ukrainian city dwellers against an unbreakable siege. This is the aspect that the West is promising to escalate with delivery of aircraft, S300s, switchblade drones, and what have you. It remains to be seen what escalatory options the Russians will employ (that do not, of course, violate their core mission objectives of sparing as many Ukrainian civilian lives and as much infrastructure as possible).

Anoop · Post by **Anoop** » 18 Mar 2022 03:25

That's an accurate summary, Rudradev. Does anybody know if Western coverage of war is visible to Russian public?

Atmavik · Post by **Atmavik** » 18 Mar 2022 03:46

vinod wrote:Russians do have air superiority, at least to the extent what they want. There are lot of evidences to that effect.

4. The big convoy was stuck and if they Ukraine had 56 planes remaining, then why didn't they go all out against that juicy targets in a massive highway of death. But nothing happened.

So, in conclusion, Russia has air superiority over the area of their interest. There are not many Russian planes flying over Ukraine now.

What is happening is hit and run by Ukrainians.

Drones - similar story. They also do similar hit and run.

Otherwise, Russia has control over the skies. Stingers are the main threat now.

The drones are having a small impact, mostly pr for turkey. That 40 mile convoy that was stuck for a week should have been wiped out if UKR had any ground attack aircraft

Having said that the Russians got a big setback in south east. They are not advancing on Odessa. It’s mostly gorilla tactics from UKR army now. The longer this drags on the more messier it will get. Chechens and Syrians are joining the fight soon afghans will also make there way

ldev · Post by **ldev** » 18 Mar 2022 04:24

^^^
Zelenskyy is in no danger of being overthrown. Ukraine is in chaos and people are worried about their safety and fleeing. Demonstrations are a peace time phenomenon and cannot be organized in the fog of war when people are worried about the next air/missile attack.

The pressure of attrition is on Russia; on the military front because of the conventional munitions expended in the conflict which are probably not being produced at the same rate that they are being used. That is why the US is putting the pressure on China to not support the Russian war effort via supply of arms and equipment as was reported a few days ago. Bringing Chinese arms inventory and production capacity to back up the Russians will be significant. On the economic front it's also a huge dislocation for Russia. From supply chains to payments there has been a disruption in external trade. The only sector relatively unscathed is oil and gas. That has a boomerang effect on employment, wages and inflation but Russia can hold out much longer on the economic front.

Also interesting that India is going to have a flurry of diplomatic visits/encounters over the next few days:

Prime MInister Fumio Kishida of Japan is visiting on March 19. Then on March 21 PM Modi is having a virtual summit with Australian PM Scott Morrison. Liz Truss the Foreign Secretary of the UK is also visiting next week. And the famous/infamous Victoria Nuland, US Undersecretary for Political Affairs will also be visiting New Delhi.

Amid Ukraine crisis, Delhi receives a flurry of NATO allies and Quad partners

sanjaykumar · Post by **sanjaykumar** » 18 Mar 2022 04:45

There is much that conventional narratives on Ukraine do not explain. Why has the cell phone service been allowed to function?
Is that because of incompetence as well?