2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Karan M · Post by **Karan M** » 27 Nov 2019 00:42

It doesnt matter if they are clean or otherwise. Even a barely functioning Govt is enough.

nachiket · Post by **nachiket** » 27 Nov 2019 00:47

V_Raman wrote:how will BJP campaign against corruption now if there is an interim election? If the coalition runs a clean govt. for whatever time they are in power - then BJP is done in Maharashtra!

There won't be an election anytime soon thanks to this fiasco. It might have happened if BJP had let things play out. Now they are all angry and united and trying to show they can run the govt. And no it won't be clean. It is physically impossible for both Pawar and Thackerays to not indulge in humongous amounts of corruption given the smallest chance to do it.

In the next elections whenever they will happen, Cong-NCP will not need SS to win. They can dump them and still win since SS will eat into BJP's voteshare just enough to beat them.

chanakyaa · Post by **chanakyaa** » 27 Nov 2019 00:48

KL Dubey wrote:...
That said, I think the petition filed by a BJP member in the SC questioning the validity of this whole process has merit. Millions of voters have been cheated out of what they voted for. A party walks away from the clear 161 seat mandate for no other reason but the CM post, and goes and forms a completely different alliance with a "common minimum program" - taking 2 weeks to do it. It may be their right to walk out, but this new alliance and CMP has NOT been endorsed by the electorate. It needs to endorsed in a new election.

...
I think the President should seriously consider dissolving the assembly and calling a fresh election.
...

Very legit argument. Considering contentious seat sharing formula between SS/Bjp, current election outcome is invalid in spirit. Downside is that NCP and Kangeese may benefit on margin as Bjp and SS bleed each other, or Modiji magic gets to 120+.

Sumeet · Post by **Sumeet** » 27 Nov 2019 00:49

Then in that case BJP should have accepted a rotating CM post with Shiv Sena and that would have kept SS content and Maharashtra with dharmics.

I personally think dharmic society as a whole has not evolved to the level where we can all unanimously support one party (especially at the state level). This needs to be taken into account by MAD. Also, it's important to maintain alliance till then.

All that said the internal contradictions between these parties (NCP, INC and SS) are nothing but natural. I do see a hope that one day SS might return to the stable.

Shiv Aroor made a very relevant tweet today:

From Shiv Aroor's twitter:
If the BJP had patiently allowed the 'khichdi coalition' to take office & disintegrate under its own contradictions (would have been just a matter of time), it would have given the BJP the moral authority, public sympathy and launchpad to take Maharashtra without any allies.

Karan M · Post by **Karan M** » 27 Nov 2019 00:51

All this is navel gazing IMHO by these journos who don't have the balls to play big (and lose big). BJP tried, failed. That's the best they could do. I only regret they didn't go hammer and tongs at SP and show him his place before playing this gambit. Giving him a Bharat Ratna etc was unnecessary.

syam · Post by **syam** » 27 Nov 2019 00:53

It's official now. ut will do the swearing thing on 28th. Their alliance has 166 mla support.

CRamS · Post by **CRamS** » 27 Nov 2019 01:09

My take is that Fadnavis is the guy at 'fault' if you want to call it that. He probably was taking in by AP's support, and then went and requested ModiJi and Amit Shah to give him the green signal to explore. They probably felt it was worth the risk and pushed the button. Of course, as leaders, they should have proably asked more tough questions as to whether SP was on board.

For those advocating that BJP straightaway push some Hinduthva legislation like BR for Savarkar, 370 etc., to put SS louts on the dock, I am not convinced. Timing is very important for emotional issues. Right now, 370, Ayodhya are not energizing people enough IMO. And as always that curse of caste (and other fault lines) hangs as an albatross around us Hindus that prevent consolidation. Or else how can one explain that there is no mass exodus of SS cadres after such a colossal betrayal by their leader to fall at feet of their very nemesis who called Hindus as terrorists?

And note, Congoons have not diluted their agenda one bit and so their core supporters are welcoming this alliance with SS as a way to dent BJP. But SS chutiyas drunk in their thirst for CM post have sold their soul and are actually celebrating such a shameful sell out. Where is the Hindu unity, its a figment of our imagination at the moment. This is the challenge Amit Shah and ModiJi face. Its internal, the BIF is only exploiting our internal Hindu fault lines.

I see some irrational exuberance by the BIF on social media. Reminds me of the ecstasy we had when DF staged that daring coup last Sat

. Reality I guess plays out more in slow motion. Lets hope for the contradictions in the thug bandhan and hopefully, Karnataka repeats itself.

shravanp · Post by **shravanp** » 27 Nov 2019 01:17

CRamS wrote: For those advocating that BJP straightaway push some Hinduthva legislation like BR for Savarkar, 370 etc., to put SS louts on the dock, I am not convinced. Timing is very important for emotional issues. Right now, 370, Ayodhya are not energizing people enough IMO. And as always that curse of caste (and other fault lines) hangs as an albatross around us Hindus that prevent consolidation.

+1

BJP can't take on these Maha thug alliance based on the ones you mentioned, because the later holds keys to caste divisions, Marathi manoos pride etc. Let me stick my neck out, but I feel its time for BJP to encourage tacitly AIMIM, and prep up Raj T. BJP on its own, cannot pull it off in Maharashtra. This state follows different political dynamics as compared to other states. Too many players. Just like Uttar Pradesh, where Modi/AS worked hard to understand the caste dynamics and crack the code, its going to require similar such effort in Maharashtra to defeat all these NCPs Congs SPs....

If there's re-election, and there's triangular corner fight: SS vs BJP vs (Cong/NCP), surely Cong/NCP will win. NCP and Cong are not fools to take separate route again (as they did in 2014). BJP and SS are now going to contest all seats on their own. BJP hopefully should be close to victory margin, but then again, NCP/Cong, especially Cong needs to be cracked open.

V_Raman · Post by **V_Raman** » 27 Nov 2019 01:21

I agree that this is not what people wanted at all! Total mockery of the mandate. Dissolution and re-election is the right path forward here. We need to laws to prevent this kind of post election switching.

Sumeet · Post by **Sumeet** » 27 Nov 2019 01:28

Can anyone comment what this means for DF as a potential successor to PM Modi ? Is he done ?

syam · Post by **syam** » 27 Nov 2019 01:34

It's tale of three women.
One woman lost her position in the society along with her husband future.
One woman secured the future for her whole family.
One woman had made big come back.

vera_k · Post by **vera_k** » 27 Nov 2019 01:59

Sumeet wrote:Can anyone comment what this means for DF as a potential successor to PM Modi ? Is he done ?

Think PM Modi is on the way out if this holds. Opposition is recovering and coalescing after the demo shock. Having the economy in the tank does not help.

Karan M · Post by **Karan M** » 27 Nov 2019 02:02

Oh please. You have no clue of the public's continued regard for him, and his and AS's capabilities. The economy is in the tank because of all the crap super economist piled on it. It will fix and be fixed. The GOI is aware of the issue and with the big sticker social issues out of the way, this is next.

disha · Post by **disha** » 27 Nov 2019 02:27

vera_k wrote: Having the economy in the tank does not help.

Right. Economy is in a tank called super tank. It is going to blast away.

Cannot believe that if 'growth is not 8%, it is not growth at all' type of naysayers. Indian economy is still the fastest growing economy in the world. Unless of course you want to believe in Chinese numbers.

darshan · Post by **darshan** » 27 Nov 2019 02:30

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-indi ... SKCN1UN0VT

Priced between 70 and 170 rupees, they seemed out of reach for customers used to paying only 5 rupees for the tiny chocolates he has sold for years. But he took a chance and now rings up to 3,500 rupees ($50) in Silk bar sales a month.

“Villagers can afford premium chocolates now,” he said.

As Satish and other Harohalli shopkeepers have found chocolate sales in India are taking off, helped by growth in disposable incomes that extends to the country’s 650,000 poorer villages where more than two-thirds of the population reside.

A boom in e-commerce and a sharp tax cut are also propelling sales higher, spurring global confectioners like Mondelez International Inc, Nestle SA (NESN.S) and relative newcomer Hershey Co (HSY.N) to invest further in the still small but rapidly expanding market.

Illinois-based Mondelez, India’s No.1 chocolate maker, told Reuters “the big bulk” of a $150 million increase in global investment this year - the first hike in five years - will be in rural India.

nachiket · Post by **nachiket** » 27 Nov 2019 02:38

vera_k wrote:
Sumeet wrote:Can anyone comment what this means for DF as a potential successor to PM Modi ? Is he done ?
Think PM Modi is on the way out if this holds. Opposition is recovering and coalescing after the demo shock. Having the economy in the tank does not help.

This is taking the gloom and doom too far. No need to confuse state elections with national ones. Otherwise Modi should have lost after the losses in RJ, MP and CG. And those were true losses, not backstabbing by an ally after a victory. Don't forget that the same people who voted for NCP-Cong in state elections voted in droves for Modi a few months back. People have shown time and again that differentiate between national and state elections.

As for Fadnavis, he has his hands full in trying to build a future for BJP in MH without Sena. A difficult enough task in itself. He can't move to center anytime soon.

pankajs · Post by **pankajs** » 27 Nov 2019 02:41

CRamS wrote:For those advocating that BJP straightaway push some Hinduthva legislation like BR for Savarkar, 370 etc., to put SS louts on the dock, I am not convinced. Timing is very important for emotional issues. Right now, 370, Ayodhya are not energizing people enough IMO. And as always that curse of caste (and other fault lines) hangs as an albatross around us Hindus that prevent consolidation. Or else how can one explain that there is no mass exodus of SS cadres after such a colossal betrayal by their leader to fall at feet of their very nemesis who called Hindus as terrorists?

This is not about scoring with the public for an election but forcing Sena to make a choice and recording the choice for future use. 370 did not fetch votes but 370 will always be associated with Modi/BJP and its halo will always reflect on Modi/Shah but no one else. Politics is about creating a contrast, a gap if you will and you start creating it as soon as you can. If BJP starts early, it might even be able to make an issue out of Bal Thakrey's legacy.

pankajs · Post by **pankajs** » 27 Nov 2019 02:46

Modi/BJP are really cursed ... At the first upheaval folks start chest beating and declare Modi out of contention for the future ...

And these folks are out to save civilization!

pankajs · Post by **pankajs** » 27 Nov 2019 03:02

nachiket wrote:If Fadnavis and Shah really tried to pull this off with just Ajit Pawar's backing I have no words. It was monumentally stupid. Fadnavis for one should know very well not to get involved in a SP vs AP slugfest. There was always going to be only one winner and that is not AP. I was hoping that this was some bigger game they were playing but they now have egg on their face.

Would have been much better to sit back and let the internal contradictions of the unholy alliance cause chaos. Instead they ended up uniting them and lighting a fire under their musharraf's to get the alliance done instead of indulging in endless discussions.

United them by giving them a common enemy ... YES
Forcing them to get the alliance done ASAP .. NO

The Alliance was nearly complete except for some very minor points. Infact, Pawarful himself declared that UT would be the CM as he was leaving the discussion on Friday. The delay, per some sources, was because AP had infact introduced some new wrinkle at the last moment. BJP moved only when it found out that the alliance was ready to meet the Governor.

As for the last minute bid to form the government before the inevitable alliance stake claim, it was a roll of the dice. They decided to be bold and have eggs on their faces to show for their efforts.

It is a disappointing but Modi/Shah have had such eggs before. I too thought they might have some bigger game. I was hoping that this was a distraction while the real numbers would come from Sena. Going just on AP promise was bit too much of gamble but hindsight is 20:20. Theek hai.

ShyamSP · Post by **ShyamSP** » 27 Nov 2019 04:35

https://www.indiatoday.in/india/story/b ... 2019-11-26
Maharashtra setback: As another state slips out of BJP's hand, saffron hues shrink from India's map

Raveen · Post by **Raveen** » 27 Nov 2019 04:54

ShyamSP wrote:https://www.indiatoday.in/india/story/b ... 2019-11-26
Maharashtra setback: As another state slips out of BJP's hand, saffron hues shrink from India's map

You don't administer area, you administer the people who inhabit the area. Compare the population under BJP, and UP alone will balance it out.

UlanBatori · Post by **UlanBatori** » 27 Nov 2019 05:05

darshan wrote:https://www.reuters.com/article/us-indi ... SKCN1UN0VT
“Villagers can afford premium chocolates now,” he said.
As Satish and other Harohalli shopkeepers have found chocolate sales in India are taking off, helped by growth in disposable incomes that extends to the country’s 650,000 poorer villages where more than two-thirds of the population reside.
A boom in e-commerce and a sharp tax cut are also propelling sales higher, spurring global confectioners like Mondelez International Inc, Nestle SA (NESN.S) and relative newcomer Hershey Co (HSY.N) to invest further in the still small but rapidly expanding market.
Illinois-based Mondelez, India’s No.1 chocolate maker, told Reuters “the big bulk” of a $150 million increase in global investment this year - the first hike in five years - will be in rural India.

Gone are the innocent days of Parle Gluco Biscuits. What next? Will they discover Original Sin that comes with boxed chocolate and roses?

IndraD · Post by **IndraD** » 27 Nov 2019 05:24

allow me to share the shame & rage members are feeling here , 26/11 seems to be a curse for India !

cash starved congress
Pawar becoming king maker in own state & beyond
Shiv Sena getting CM post
why will this coalition not last 5 years shd be the Q

A_Gupta · Post by **A_Gupta** » 27 Nov 2019 06:41

pankajs wrote:Modi/BJP are really cursed ... At the first upheaval folks start chest beating and declare Modi out of contention for the future ...

And these folks are out to save civilization!

+108

sum · Post by **sum** » 27 Nov 2019 07:52

^^^ + 100000

I ,for one, appreciate that the new BJP did not take this lying down and made all attempts to still try to ensure that they were in power instead of citing morality etc. Of course, it was a gamble and somehow, it didn't pay off.

All this talk of should not have tried since bad for optics etc doesn't really matter since junta has shown that memory is very fickle and no one will even remember all this in few months time.

All one will remember is the daily bickering which will start like in JD(S)- INC case in Kar ( here, there are 3 parties and so even more distinct differences)

Rony · Post by **Rony** » 27 Nov 2019 07:53

@YearOfTheKraken

Amit Shah secured BJP's win in two consecutive Lok Sabha Elections and numerous other states and still his credentials as Chanakya is doubted.
Sharad Pawar somehow manages to prevent his party from splitting after huge struggle and media morons start hailing him as Chanakya.

@Chopdasaab
BJP won the mandate. It was somebody else who backstabbed them for greed. UT joined hands with a foreigner against his father's wish. BJP was bold enough to fight back. They fought well to the last man standing. Fadnavis is Maharashtra's loss. Good bye infra. Hello corruption.

Rony · Post by **Rony** » 27 Nov 2019 07:57

Read it full. 100% agree

Maharashtra: In a high risk, high reward game, even if BJP, you can’t blame them for trying

The manner in which the political drama in Maharashtra ended, left many wondering whether BJP played a game where they were stuck between a rock and a hard place. On the one hand, allying with NCP might have given the impression that BJP was compromising on their ideology and allying with a party that was diametrically opposite to their ideals. On the other, if the alliance fell through as it has now, BJP would be embarrassed beyond measure. In short, in this arrangement, BJP just couldn’t win.

And that may as well be true. However, there are other angles to this that one must consider. Firstly, being in power is one of the greatest services to the ideology. Without power, none of the ideological goals that need to be fulfilled can be fulfilled. Was the alliance between BJP and Ajit Pawar ‘opportunistic’? Yes. Was it necessary? Yes as well.

Interestingly, it was not Devendra Fadnavis or the BJP that approached Ajit Pawar, it was Pawar who had approached BJP. In such a scenario, one has to look at how the entire drama unfolded. BJP and Shiv Sena fought the Maharashtra Assembly elections together. A pre-poll alliance was in place, and let’s face it, the seats that Shiv Sena won were greatly and positively impacted by the names of not only Devendra Fadnavis who has had a spotless run at governance but also Prime Minister Narendra Modi. After the elections, while BJP won 105 seats, Shiv Sena won 56 seats. BJP’s strike rate was about 70%, far, far more than Shiv Sena. After election results were announced, Shiv Sena wanted the Chief Minister’s position, which was apparently not discussed before the elections. BJP stuck to its guns and refused to cow down, and thus, started Shiv Sena’s tantrums.

Clearly, the mandate was for a BJP led government. After all, BJP was the largest party with 105 seats. That BJP could not form the government was a direct result of the greed of Shiv Sena. In such a situation, without resorting to downright immoral measures like horsetrading, the only way was to ally with Ajit Pawar when he approached BJP. Interestingly, BJP gave the other parties enough time to form their government. For days, BJP made no move. However, one has to ask if BJP would have betrayed the mandate had it refused to even try forming the government when Ajit Pawar approached them.

One must realise that political parties are not NGOs or religious institutes. Their first aim is always going to be the quest for power. BJP often comes closest to staying true to its ideology despite its quest for power. And without power, their ideology would be useless since it is a political power that is needed to affect change.

Essentially, BJP was in a high risk, high reward game where if their gamble had paid off, their reward would be being in government for the next 5 years with the power to affect change. And if they lost, it might end up in humiliation.

However, when one plays a high risk, high reward game, even if the player loses, he can’t really be blamed for trying. BJP might have lost this round and the manner in which it unfolded could be seen as a humiliation, however, it would have been morally cheating the mandate had they not tried to form the government in Maharashtra.

Rony · Post by **Rony** » 27 Nov 2019 08:24

After looking at how Shiva Sena back stabbed BJP, imagine what would have happened had Bjp/Modi got less than 272 in Loksabha elections ? These "allies" are like erstwhile samantha rajas. They will behave as long as the emperor is strong and ruthless. If an when the opportunity comes, they will join with enemies of the empire and backstab their own emperor. TDP, JDU, SS, the list is endless.

abhik · Post by **abhik** » 27 Nov 2019 09:39

Hope they learn the right lesson and refuse a pre poll alliance with JD(U) in Bihar, but keep the option open for post poll tie up. Let nitush try to jump camps again.

Rony · Post by **Rony** » 27 Nov 2019 09:59

ShyamSP wrote:https://www.indiatoday.in/india/story/b ... 2019-11-26
Maharashtra setback: As another state slips out of BJP's hand, saffron hues shrink from India's map

These are all cyclical.

1. In MH, it may be a repeat of KA.
2. Congress govts in MP and R survive on wafer thin majority with help of outside support of independents. They may collapse or lose next elections
3. BJP never had any significant footprint in AP even in 2017 other than a phoney alliance with backstabbing CBN. Same with BJP's foothold in Kashmir.

Things to look out for
1. Jharkhand is hanging in balance but flip side is BJP's growth in WB is up. Even if it does not take the CM seat from Mamata, it will definitely improve its position and emerge as a credible opposition.

UlanBatori · Post by **UlanBatori** » 27 Nov 2019 10:06

WTH?
Fadnavis quits; Udbhav Thackeray is new CM

CRamS · Post by **CRamS** » 27 Nov 2019 10:17

Rony, good article and I completely agree. What BJP did was by no means dis-honorable after how they were back stabbed. Idealistic and moralistic mumbo jumbo only works if everybody plays by the same standards. When Shiv Sena became Sonia Sena, what f!king principles are we talking about?

But I am introspecting on a larger issue. That shrinking footprint of BJP state wide really troubles me. And it left me wondering as to what percentage of Hindus subscribe to Hinduthva and robust nationalism, the core planks of BJP. No doubt, economic well being and clean governance are the other planks without which Hinduthva is an empty shell, but nevertheless I am not disposed to attribute BJP state-wide shrinking footprint to economy alone. I would attribute this to Hinduthva's limits.

But then again, what explains BJP's landslide win in May? I would say that it is due the popularity of ModiJi than Hinduthva ideology. And this is troubling. While the success of every ideology needs an icon, and ModiJI is indeed an icon, but ideology is bigger than the individual.

A few weeks is an aeon in politics, and just a few weeks ago post Ayodhya verdict, many of us were hailing that is the renaissance moment for Hindus, but it doesn't seem so anymore. Hinduthva needs constant reinforcement. Question is how does one go about it given the fierce national and international virulence arrayed against Hinduthva?

Vikas · Post by **Vikas** » 27 Nov 2019 10:45

Wining and losing states is part of electoral politics. Why so much doom and gloom about not landing up with Maha.
Even if AS or DF was taken for a ride by SP/AP duo, its ok. They will live to fight another day.

Who said that path to Saffron will be walk in the cloud.

Aditya_V · Post by **Aditya_V** » 27 Nov 2019 10:51

What is the prospect that the Shiv Sena will also follow a Pro Hindutva process and INC cannot really pull out and in the process Maharastra becomes the exact opposite of Kerala where both Govt and opposition will always be right wing parties and INC can be decimated, Similarly, INC cadres in many North Indian states can join Shiv Sena and oppose BJP? So INC is pushed out at All India level.

pankajs · Post by **pankajs** » 27 Nov 2019 11:15

CRamS wrote:But I am introspecting on a larger issue. That shrinking footprint of BJP state wide really troubles me. And it left me wondering as to what percentage of Hindus subscribe to Hinduthva and robust nationalism, the core planks of BJP. No doubt, economic well being and clean governance are the other planks without which Hinduthva is an empty shell, but nevertheless I am not disposed to attribute BJP state-wide shrinking footprint to economy alone. I would attribute this to Hinduthva's limits.

What bakwas!

What is really troubling is that the "right" and "thinking" people still buy propaganda from know propaganda sources!

Karthik S · Post by **Karthik S** » 27 Nov 2019 11:18

Sumeet wrote:Can anyone comment what this means for DF as a potential successor to PM Modi ? Is he done ?

Absolutely not him. Whoever comes after NaMo must be as dharmaic as one can be. DF is anything but dharmic. From allowing burial ground near temple to allowing feminazis to desecrate temples, to his wife having lunch EJs abroad, he shouldn't be anywhere near PM chair. David is actually a good name for him. And this guy today talks about SS's hindutva.

Yes, he got infra projects underway and is not scam tainted. But these are necessary conditions but not sufficient to be PM.

A_Gupta · Post by **A_Gupta** » 27 Nov 2019 11:21

Ram went into vanvaas, how could he possibly be avatar?

There is no point in being pro-Hindutva if you don’t even try sukha-dukhe samey krittva, etc. maintain equanimity in defeat and in victory; and objectively consider and take the next step.

pankajs · Post by **pankajs** » 27 Nov 2019 11:23

I almost forgot what I really came to post here ...

Let this phase pass .. Wait for the day when UT, as the chief minister of Maha, has to go meet Shah or Modi in Delhi!

Think about it for a moment. Till date BJP leaders went to Matoshree to strike deals but now UT, by assuming the CM-ship, will have to travel to Delhi to ask for funds. Not too far in the future .. No major projects gets off the ground without Centers co-operation.

If you don't believe me, just ask Mumtaz Bano-jee and her jeehard against Shah/Modi and her inevitable "request" for audience with Dilli Durbar. Every CM has to make an appearance to push their case funds without exception.

syam · Post by **syam** » 27 Nov 2019 11:30

Heckin no. The one who succeeds mudiji should be the nanga baba who wears only saffron dhoti, stands on his right toe all his life, walks on hands, enters temple doing back flip over the gate. If he doesn't meet this criteria, simple he is not enough saffron.

sum · Post by **sum** » 27 Nov 2019 11:33

Karthik S wrote:
Sumeet wrote:Can anyone comment what this means for DF as a potential successor to PM Modi ? Is he done ?
Absolutely not him. Whoever comes after NaMo must be as dharmaic as one can be. DF is anything but dharmic. From allowing burial ground near temple to allowing feminazis to desecrate temples, to his wife having lunch EJs abroad, he shouldn't be anywhere near PM chair. David is actually a good name for him. And this guy today talks about SS's hindutva.

Yes, he got infra projects underway and is not scam tainted. But these are necessary conditions but not sufficient to be PM.

What exactly is sufficient reasons, saar?

As per this logic, there are exactly 0 people who would be fit for the PM post for the next 20-30 years atleast( assuming your assumption is that being a uber-Hindu and being in power is the only criterion)