AP Politics and runup to 2014 General elections

Hari Seldon · Post by **Hari Seldon** » 02 Mar 2014 04:58

Well, four points:
1. The bifurcation is irreversible
2. kosta-seema needs central help big time in the coming years
3. modi's BJP is better placed than Cong to form central govt
4. TDP is best placed to take advantage of Modi at the center to develop kosta-seema.

Put all four together and the narrative is crystal clear, and not that much of a hard-sell. TDP is TINA in kosta-seema at present, seems like to me. A large number of ex-cong and other leaders and netas joining TDP in recent days seems to bear this out. Well, let the results speak for themselves, but my hopes are slowly rising again, despite themselves, mussay...

TKiran · Post by **TKiran** » 02 Mar 2014 06:06

In 2009, there was Congress wave throught the country because of MMS image, and economy was doing better in India, despite worldwide slump. AP situation was also the same. YSR had positive image, and economy was doing good. YSR got very good image because of social welfare schemes relatively well implemented. Only disadvantage in AP was anti-incumbancy, as CBN had some sympathy. PRP was introduced to hedge against anti-incumvancy.

Even if PRP was not there and CBN came to power, Congess could have managed 20 seats at LS, though would have lost AP assembly. Congress would have still managed to come to power at Centre, and CBN would have been the last CM of AP, as he formed Mahakootami with TRS. Telangana would have become a reality even if CBN was CM, as the game for Telangana was played by external players with clearcut strategy, In fact YSR's elimination was nwcessitated because he was opposing Telangana tooth and nail.

Now those who are praising NM and CBN have no idea about the actual players behind Telangana fiasco, nor do they understand that NM and CBN also could be manipulated or eliminated by those external factors. Only SG knows the whole plot. SS, Shinde, PC, GNA, Moily Diggy, were all loyal Kuttas. They too dont have any idea why Sonia was so so adamant on Telangana,

Madhu Yashki knows, SG knows, Justice Sri Krishna knows, former NSA, who was shifted to WB as Governor knows.

Yagnasri · Post by **Yagnasri** » 02 Mar 2014 06:38

The deeper plot theory is in fact something we will never know in short term. My guess is that giving entire south to Church may be the plot. I was hearing the same for sometime from various people.

BJP got one MLA in 2009 and no MPs. Later they got one more MLA. Now with 25 seats at stake NM will try his level best to get CBN in his side. BJP may not have votes but a potential PM will always have support from educated sections etc. So NM plus CBN will have good chance to win in quite a few seats of the total 42.

Kakkaji · Post by **Kakkaji** » 02 Mar 2014 08:03

Tid-bits from Coomi Kapoor's column:

http://indianexpress.com/article/opinio ... r-modi/99/

Advani’s protest

The Congress was kept guessing till the last moment as to whether the BJP would support the government in passing the Telangana Bill in the Lok Sabha. Sonia Gandhi’s face reflected her uncertainty. Speaker Meira Kumar called for a head count and the BJP MPs took their time to stand up and be counted. However, L K Advani refused to rise with the rest of his party, to register his disapproval at the manner in which an important Bill was being hustled through Parliament, after expelling 16 members opposed to it.

AP’s ‘Bhagat Singh’

There was outrage across the country at former Seemandhra MP L Rajagopal’s pepper spray act in the Lok Sabha. But, back in Andhra Pradesh, he is a hero. Posters have appeared with his photo hailing him as the new Bhagat Singh. Several of the suspended Congress MPs are likely to join Kiran Reddy’s proposed new party. One suggestion is that a can of pepper spray ought to be chosen as the election symbol. Rajagopal’s antics have been referred to the privileges committee of Parliament, but there is no move so far on registering a criminal case, as suggested earlier. The apprehension is that the investigating officers would have asked for camera footage of the melee in the House. Uncomfortable questions could have been asked about the presence of other MPs in the well of the House who pounced on the TDP’s M Venugopal Reddy.

The MP guards

Parliamentary Affairs Minister Kamal Nath had selected more than a dozen MPs from his party to act as bodyguards to senior ministers and Sonia Gandhi in the House in case of a possible attack by Seemandhra MPs. In Nath’s band of SPG (Special Parliamentarians Group), what was noteworthy was that the relatively older MPs, such as Vilas Muttemwar and Raj Babbar, seemed more spirited in taking on the enemy than their younger colleagues. Babbar confessed that he mentally recreated his filmy persona where the hero downs the villain with bare fisticuffs. But in real life, his opponent, the TDP’s M Venugopal Reddy, did not collapse from his punches. Muttemwar, who was in Sanjay Gandhi’s Youth Congress decades ago, was also hyperactive. His son has cautioned him he was now too old for such antics.

Rony · Post by **Rony** » 02 Mar 2014 09:52

Telangana episode a warning to Sangh Parivar

The unacceptable and insulting way in which Andhra Pradesh was divided shakes any residual trust left in India’s democratic institutions. The way both the Government and the Opposition leadership colluded in the Lok Sabha confirms the suspicions about the compromised leadership of the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP). If dissent can be stifled and dirty tricks used in Parliament, the highest democratic institution, to pass an important bill in the dark, one wonders if such a farce can be called democracy. While no sane person can expect anything good from this totally corrupt, insensitive, mafia-style government the country has ever seen, the Opposition was not far behind in sharing this glory with the regime.

The shameless arrogance of the UPA was matched by the impotence of a compromised Opposition. The fact that Sushma Swaraj (chinamma) begged for a little credit for the formation of Telangana State speaks volumes about the stature and quality of opposition leadership in Parliament. The question arises how such incompetent and compromised persons ended up as leaders of the principal opposition party in parliament. It’s not just about the Andhra Reorganization Bill; forget about cornering government, they seem to have made secret agreements with the regime on every issue that came up on the floor of the house. For the last decade there seems to be no distinction between government and opposition.

People will soon reconcile to a separate State, but Seemandhra is deeply hurt. People now expect nothing from the Congress, but they did expect some sane behavior from the BJP. They do not understand the internal dynamics within the BJP, but they hoped something from Narendra Modi; what happened in the Lok Sabha really shook their confidence. He needs to address their concerns soon.

The BJP highlighted the separate Telangana issue in 1998, when Hyderabad was not even one-third of what it is today. In the NDA coalition, bowing to Telugu Desam pressure, they quietly dropped the issue. Since then, they have let unscrupulous elements hijack the issue and vitiate the relationship between people in the State. In 2014, the situation being different, they should have revised their stand or made necessary amendments. Sticking rigidly to a 15-year-old stand is not adherence to principles, certainly not for a dynamic political party that claims to work for people; it is intellectual laziness. They should have reviewed the situation and communicated with the people, rather than bungle under pressure from mafia-style tactics.

The 15-year drama for a separate Telangana has some important lessons for the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS) which has been directly involved via frontal organizations like the Akhil Bharatiya Vidyarthi Parishad (ABVP). Andhra Pradesh is a predominantly Hindu state with a great Hindu cultural and spiritual heritage. The RSS is uncomfortable with regional diversity and hardly highlights this local heritage; their template is the same all over the country. They hardly speak of the Satavahana, Kakatiya, Vijayanagar dynasties or local heroes and achievers. As such, they cannot connect with the majority working class and their scope is limited to a narrow segment of the elite classes.

Their talent pool is limited; many potential mass leaders left, though some returned recently under the influence of Narendra Modi. Overall, the leadership is mostly unelectable. The Hindu castes capable of churning out mass leaders never took RSS seriously. Even when they agree with the Parivar ideology and finance some of its social work projects, they are reluctant to support it politically. In Andhra Pradesh, the situation is worse because the political and intellectual ecosystem is influenced by the Dravidian movement, Marxism and Naxalism and because of the language barrier which makes the Sangh Parivar look like a north Indian entity. Andhra Pradesh has historically supported the Congress for decades because it had a strong leadership rooted in one or other strong Hindu caste, as was the case in Maharashtra. But once a local hero like NT Rama Rao emerged as an alternative, they discarded the Congress, though it still occupied political space due to leaders with a strong caste background.

The Sangh Parivar couldn’t win over Seemandhra but managed to gain some influence in parts of Telangana where the Hindu population faced atrocities from the Nizam’s Razakars, the riots in Hyderabad city and the Naxalism in rural Telangana. But Leftist and anti-Hindu leanings are also strong in Telangana, as demonstrated by the celebration of Mahishasura and Ravana as icons in Osmania University in the recent past, which was later copied by the Jawaharlal Nehru University (JNU) brigade in Delhi.

Other than Venkaiah Naidu, most BJP leaders are from Telangana. After unsuccessful attempts to influence the entire Andhra Pradesh, the RSS supported a separate Telangana in 1998. The ABVP, its active student organization in the region, played a key role in the episode; many TRS leaders were active members of the RSS in the past. TRS leader Chandrasekhar Rao, frustrated by the strong-arm tactics of YS Rajshekhar Reddy to decimate his party by using caste affiliations after coming to power with an alliance, launched vituperative attacks on Seemandhra people.

This, more than the separate Telangana and Hyderabad issue, angered Seemandhra people and vitiated the atmosphere between the regions. Blinded by hatred they demolished statues of Telugu icons on Tank bund in Hyderabad. While KCR was provoking people, state BJP leaders and the ABVP collaborated with rowdy TRS elements and Maoist sympathetic groups on the ground. Other than some lip service, state BJP leaders neither bothered to oppose or protest KCR’s approach nor made efforts to reach out to Seemandhra people. Sushma Swaraj addressed meetings in Telangana promising separate state in 100 days if BJP was voted to power, but not once cared to address Seema people. The BJP leadership was silently complicit with KCR and his party in their abusive campaign against Seemandhra.

Now Telangana is separate, the question is whether the BJP can win significant seats in the coming polls or emerge as a political force in the near future. Telangana has a significant Backward Caste population compared to Seemandhra, the Upper caste population is just around 12%, and if Backward Castes connect with Modi they can win some seats. In the long run, RSS may have to find Backward Caste leadership to consolidate its clout or Naxal and anti-Hindu elements can gain.

Seemandhra is a different game. Historically Christian missionary activity is high in this region and their influence is not limited to the Scheduled Castes; there are many upper caste converts also. Under YSR, their activity increased to unprecedented levels; his son-in-law runs an evangelical empire and his family actively participates in mass evangelical gatherings. An influential Hindu caste with strong roots in Rayalaseema is solidly behind YSR’s son, Jagan Reddy. As of now, it seems that the Reddy-Dalit-Christian support base of Congress has migrated to Jagan’s party in Seemandhra and an incremental vote from upper castes and Backward Castes could bring his party closer to a majority. The Telugu Desam Party (TDP) with its Kamma-Backward Caste support base also needs incremental vote from other upper castes. Both parties are evenly balanced and whoever gains the extra vote could win a majority in Seemandhra.

The RSS in Seemandhra is incapable of tackling the widespread missionary activity; Jagan’s victory will make things worse. The only option is to join hands with TDP, but the antagonism between upper castes which constitute 32 per cent of the coastal Andhra and 22 per cent of the Rayalaseema population remains a hurdle. A BJP-TDP-Loksatta alliance is the need of the hour to consolidate upper caste, Backward Caste and swing votes in Seemandhra. Jagan’s support base is like the Bahujan Samaj Party vote base in UP; he needs increments from all other castes to win.

After supporting the division of Andhra Pradesh for political expediency, if the RSS fails to manage a hold in the region, then anarchic and casteist forces could take over both Telangana and Seemandhra. It will have to accommodate regional identities. A monolithic Hindu identity may have to be projected to the outside world to survive as a group in the present geo-politics hostile to Hindus, but internal diversity should never be compromised.

In the long run, bifurcation of Andhra Pradesh may not be an economic disadvantage for both regions in long run, but the Telugu people have lost their political clout and prestige within the Indian union. Their icons now belong to either Telangana or Seemandhra. But this is not the time for disappointment; they now have to strive hard to make both regions prosperous and focus more on their language and culture which has been neglected so far.

Kakkaji · Post by **Kakkaji** » 02 Mar 2014 10:12

So Raj Babbar has admitted to doing goondagiri in the Parliament, beating up Venugopal Reddy. Why are there no criminal charges against him yet?

Kakkaji · Post by **Kakkaji** » 02 Mar 2014 10:14

Which part of AP were Bandaru Dattatreya and Bangaru Laxman from?

Shanmukh · Post by **Shanmukh** » 02 Mar 2014 10:31

Kakkaji wrote:Which part of AP were Bandaru Dattatreya and Bangaru Laxman from?

Bandaru is from Hyderabad. Not sure about Laxman.

chaanakya · Post by **chaanakya** » 02 Mar 2014 11:05

President rule in Andhra Pradesh, assent to Telangana bill

NEW DELHI:The bill to carve out Telangana on Saturday received the assent of President Pranab Mukherjee who also signed the proclamation to impose central rule in Andhra Pradesh.

The Andhra Pradesh Reorganisation Bill 2014, which got Parliament's approval on February 20 despite strong opposition from Seemandhra leaders, got the Presidential assent, paving the way for creation of the country's 29th state by splitting Andhra Pradesh.

There will be 13 districts in residuary Andhra Pradesh while Telangana will have 10 districts, including the Hyderabad city.

In a bid to address concerns of the Seemandhra region, government had already announced grant of special category status including tax incentives to the residuary state as part of a six-point development package for AP's two successor states.

The President also signed the proclamation to impose President's rule in Andhra Pradesh following the Union Cabinet's recommendation yesterday.

Mukherjee gave his nod to place under suspended animation the Andhra Pradesh assembly whose term is slated to end on June two.

The decision to impose the President's Rule in Andhra Pradesh was necessitated by N Kiran Kumar Reddy's resignation as the chief minister on February 19 as he was opposed to division of the state to carve out Telangana.

Governor E S L Narasimhan had recommended central rule in the state after the resignation.

The bill to create Telangana by splitting Andhra Pradesh was passed by Parliament on February 20 in the just-concluded winter session.

Well with notification ( after Presidential Assent to the Bill) creation of Telangana and Residuary State of Seemandhra is well on its way. The grant of Spl category status without Justification and under threat of violence is only expected to fuel demand from Bihar and other states demanding such status. Now NikU has taken up this , he would get a march over others including BJP unless it includes grant of Spl category Status to Bihar as its Poll promise or Congis grant it pronto and stitches alliance with JDU. In which case congis might get some seats, NikU wil get most and BJP would become distant third. I think Congis are banking on this and hence delaying alliance with RJD and not deciding on Spl cat Ststus to Bihar but may promise after election. Interesting scenario after AP division. BJP may end up getting hurt where it had advantage.

vivek.rao · Post by **vivek.rao** » 02 Mar 2014 16:37

My spies in AP tell me that there was poor response to Jagan's rally in Hyderabad. ANy one can confirm?

devesh · Post by **devesh** » 02 Mar 2014 20:09

what is the situation in Uttara Kosta? It has been speculated before that Jagan is not much of a force there. is that still true? I think UK is one region where TDP can genuinely sweep entire constituencies without much trouble. might act as a balance against Jagan's presence in Seema. and amidst all this, which direction is the Delta going?

vishvak · Post by **vishvak** » 02 Mar 2014 21:05

Now those who are praising NM and CBN have no idea about the actual players behind Telangana fiasco, nor do they understand that NM and CBN also could be manipulated or eliminated by those external factors. Only SG knows the whole plot. SS, Shinde, PC, GNA, Moily Diggy, were all loyal Kuttas. They too dont have any idea why Sonia was so so adamant on Telangana,

Madhu Yashki knows, SG knows, Justice Sri Krishna knows, former NSA, who was shifted to WB as Governor knows.

Very sad state of politics when people aren't in the know scheming; outsiders muddling and few who know remain silent. The chamchas are state and national level leaders and still show no intellect.

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 02 Mar 2014 22:32

T Kiran do you know or care to elaborate on why AP was divided?

Virupaksha · Post by **Virupaksha** » 02 Mar 2014 23:26

devesh wrote:what is the situation in Uttara Kosta? It has been speculated before that Jagan is not much of a force there. is that still true? I think UK is one region where TDP can genuinely sweep entire constituencies without much trouble. might act as a balance against Jagan's presence in Seema. and amidst all this, which direction is the Delta going?

along expected lines in uttar kosta,
1) the church did not penetrate as much as in south kosta
2) the native royalty is not reddys, but rajus because of influence from orissan gajapatis

so caste and religion do not support the divide which Jagan achieved in south costa and rayalseema.

delta, in the vijayawada mp seat, only the tdp has a clear candidate. congress and jagan do not have ready candidates and will possibly import - however the caste equation in this seat means only tdp or congress can win.

In delta, all three of them have reasonable chances and will mostly depend on the local candidates and their money power. These delta candidates will be expected to fund candidates in other areas - so expect only high money bags.

devesh · Post by **devesh** » 02 Mar 2014 23:48

Virupaksha wrote:
devesh wrote:what is the situation in Uttara Kosta? It has been speculated before that Jagan is not much of a force there. is that still true? I think UK is one region where TDP can genuinely sweep entire constituencies without much trouble. might act as a balance against Jagan's presence in Seema. and amidst all this, which direction is the Delta going?
along expected lines in uttar kosta,
1) the church did not penetrate as much as in south kosta
2) the native royalty is not reddys, but rajus because of influence from orissan gajapatis

so caste and religion do not support the divide which Jagan achieved in south costa and rayalseema.

delta, in the vijayawada mp seat, only the tdp has a clear candidate. congress and jagan do not have ready candidates and will possibly import - however the caste equation in this seat means only tdp or congress can win.

In delta, all three of them have reasonable chances and will mostly depend on the local candidates and their money power. These delta candidates will be expected to fund candidates in other areas - so expect only high money bags.

Virupaksha ji, thank you! the bold part is definitely interesting! apart from some rare shining examples, the old-feudals (the real landlords, not those who took care of it or got into agriculture massively in 19th century) have become a burden politically. where are characters like Madhava Reddy when you need them?

TKiran · Post by **TKiran** » 02 Mar 2014 23:59

It is a part of wider conspiracy. CIA wants to destabilize India by taking advantage of every faultline that could be exploited. This is not new or not known to many. So what is different this time? You may ask.

Everytime they tried this, they failed because people failed it. It ia very difficult to understand Indians. They have standard methods available with them, which worked for them in South America, Africa and parts of Asia. So they are wondering why these methods worked in Egypt, Syria, Ukraine etc, why its not working in India. So a dedicated team is assigned with this job. The ultimate aim or u may call it a goal is Violence and those who can control the violence should be American thottus(Chamchas) . When they studied about Telangana, they remembered violent movement of 1969, and started cultivating resources. A large pool of Telugus available in Massa. Secretly mobilized some, keeping them on their payroll such as Madhu Yashki. He mobilizes some emotional fools in Massa, . He creates aome links to some Dilli Billis. (look at the way he speaks like Mr. Spock with no emotions and only busineas)Now he realizes that as long as YSR is there this issue will go nowhere. Actually his calculation was that once Mahakootami wins AP in 2009, then Telangana issue can be made violent. This did not happen and YSR could easily control the Telangana issue. He throws his hand in air to his handlers in CIA.

They wont tell him that YSR going to be eliminated. They contact the assasins who plotted to eliminate Anil Ambani Ambani, but could not succeed. They give supari to those Assassins, but assure them they will get all the support from satellites. Luckily the plot succeeds. Now Madhu Yashki guy is under much more pressure to ahow results. He contacts KCR and gives him loads of money. He starts hunger strike in Kareem nagar, his health gets affected he wants to quit it now. But Madhu Yashki puts pressure on KCR through Osmania, where he planted some trouble makers, and some emotional fools. They plan to storm Assembly. This is when they gwt inputa that large scale voilence could result, and PC who knows nothing 'bout this issue gives Dec9, 2009 statement. The resultant mass resignations by Seemandhra MLA's had caught everyone by surprise. Then enters MK Narayanan andgives correct perspective on Telangana issue. PC retracts and puts Srikrishna Committee. That was almost the end of Telangana issue and violence that was supposed to be associated with it. So Madhu Yashki goes to his handlers and expresses his inability to continue . His handlers being experts in creatingt violence, arrange for Million March to Tank bund and destroy the statues. As seemandgra folka thought m.

Sanku · Post by **Sanku** » 03 Mar 2014 00:02

ShyamSP wrote:
Sanku wrote:ShyamSP]^^^
But BJP behavior can't be overshadowed as backstabbing is still in voters mind.

No in AP associates BJP with the division of state, well may be 2-3% -- all the non stop piling on BJP on this thread is only achieving the effect of keeping the thread in wonder land and completely dissociated with reality.

BJP did perfectly the right thing with close coordination between its leaders -- and their stand will give them best electoral results in 2014, as well enable pre/post poll alliance with TRS and/or TDP.

I see this as win-win for BJP politically
Splitting recklessly to get political advantage is nauseating.

I gather that you're BJP-bot. There are more things and issues to analyze beyond BJP.

* numbers are to make a point and not literally.

The numbers in all surveys consistently show that no one in Telengana or SA associate BJP with the split.

So frankly your personal attack on me is about all you have on the topic, and then go on to say that things are beyond BJP, I take it that you would not want to make the AP partition a BJP issue and now focus on the real matter at hand ?

Virupaksha · Post by **Virupaksha** » 03 Mar 2014 00:07

Devesh,
It is not that they are not there. For example, the former revenue minister under CBN was ashok gajapathi raju, who is said to be a decent person. I do not have first hand info about him though.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pusapati

The caste which is getting stronger politically is the kapu caste, which the congress is wooing. Kapu however is a "modern" caste. It is grouping of castes. The reason why I am not so writing off congress is essentially because of this group. They are looking for political power, not the scraps and congress seems to be the only party which gives them a shot.

TDP has a chance to fight it creating a BC headed telangana division, like devender goud, but it will slowly lead to loss of control over that from the family control - which I dont think will allow. That is why I dont think KCR and congress will merge. It will lead to opposition space being vacant for bjp to swoop in.

ShyamSP · Post by **ShyamSP** » 03 Mar 2014 00:23

Sanku wrote:
ShyamSP wrote: Splitting recklessly to get political advantage is nauseating.

I gather that you're BJP-bot. There are more things and issues to analyze beyond BJP.

* numbers are to make a point and not literally.
The numbers in all surveys consistently show that no one in Telengana or SA associate BJP with the split.

So frankly your personal attack on me is about all you have on the topic, and then go on to say that things are beyond BJP, I take it that you would not want to make the AP partition a BJP issue and now focus on the real matter at hand ?

What surveys? Paper numbers they spit out. India-Today, NDTV, TOI, HT, etc are spitting out numbers from thin airs. Did you read news on C-voter survey every one sprayed in their news is bogus. Sorry if you're relying on those, you may be right and I may be wrong. Let's leave it there.

Sanku · Post by **Sanku** » 03 Mar 2014 00:31

ShyamSP wrote: What surveys? Paper numbers they spit out. India-Today, NDTV, TOI, HT, etc are spitting out numbers from thin airs. Did you read news on C-voter survey every one sprayed in their news is bogus. Sorry if you're relying on those, you may be right and I may be wrong. Let's leave it there.

No lets not leave it there. So all the newspapers and all the media are uniformly wrong is saying that BJP has no mind share in T and SA before or after the division w.r.t. this topic and no one associates BJP with division -- but we should take your word for it and spend 99% of discussion which does not even exist in T and SA ?

TKiran · Post by **TKiran** » 03 Mar 2014 00:36

Sorry I lost some text while editing.

Seemandhra folks were always cool as they thought Telangana would never happen.The Handlers wanted to show something, they used their influence to replace Rosaiah with someone naieve. KKR takes over. The issue was dead. Now Madhu Yashki tells his handlers that Violence is possible only when Telangana separates. Now his handlers cultivate a number of collaborators in new delhi, who will do anything for money. They influence SG when she went to US. She's determined to do the split for money, actually she doesn't have any idea about Telangana. (srikrishna committee had the idea of voilence that could mark the relationship between T and SA. But it was not made public) she thought its OK to split, may be for somwtimes the emotions would run high, everything would be normal as the time passes. Her immediate requirement for money could be served. Anyways Congreas is not going to form the govt. The best option is to take the money, use it to create 3rd Front sarkar at cwnter for 2 or 3 years and come back.

So the split happens, now what about the violence? Thats the big question

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 03 Mar 2014 01:03

No need for violence. Its not India Pakistan model, more like Czech and Slovakia velvet revolution besides with BJP in Delhi can expect better law and order.

I am more inclined to think of a new Green Zone with MIM as the objective. But KCR being there is a new wrinkle to that.

Muppalla · Post by **Muppalla** » 03 Mar 2014 05:28

devesh wrote:what is the situation in Uttara Kosta? It has been speculated before that Jagan is not much of a force there. is that still true? I think UK is one region where TDP can genuinely sweep entire constituencies without much trouble. might act as a balance against Jagan's presence in Seema. and amidst all this, which direction is the Delta going?

Every tom dick and harry is only having one route and that is TDP excluding just a district called Cuddapah. TDP will shorty have problems of other type in the form of how to accommodate.

As the date of election approaches there is really not going to be what was propagated/projected about a month ago.

Dasari · Post by **Dasari** » 03 Mar 2014 06:15

chaanakya wrote:President rule in Andhra Pradesh, assent to Telangana bill

NEW DELHI:The bill to carve out Telangana on Saturday received the assent of President Pranab Mukherjee who also signed the proclamation to impose central rule in Andhra Pradesh.

The Andhra Pradesh Reorganisation Bill 2014, which got Parliament's approval on February 20 despite strong opposition from Seemandhra leaders, got the Presidential assent, paving the way for creation of the country's 29th state by splitting Andhra Pradesh.

There will be 13 districts in residuary Andhra Pradesh while Telangana will have 10 districts, including the Hyderabad city.

In a bid to address concerns of the Seemandhra region, government had already announced grant of special category status including tax incentives to the residuary state as part of a six-point development package for AP's two successor states.

The President also signed the proclamation to impose President's rule in Andhra Pradesh following the Union Cabinet's recommendation yesterday.

Mukherjee gave his nod to place under suspended animation the Andhra Pradesh assembly whose term is slated to end on June two.

The decision to impose the President's Rule in Andhra Pradesh was necessitated by N Kiran Kumar Reddy's resignation as the chief minister on February 19 as he was opposed to division of the state to carve out Telangana.

Governor E S L Narasimhan had recommended central rule in the state after the resignation.

The bill to create Telangana by splitting Andhra Pradesh was passed by Parliament on February 20 in the just-concluded winter session.
Well with notification ( after Presidential Assent to the Bill) creation of Telangana and Residuary State of Seemandhra is well on its way. The grant of Spl category status without Justification and under threat of violence is only expected to fuel demand from Bihar and other states demanding such status. Now NikU has taken up this , he would get a march over others including BJP unless it includes grant of Spl category Status to Bihar as its Poll promise or Congis grant it pronto and stitches alliance with JDU. In which case congis might get some seats, NikU wil get most and BJP would become distant third. I think Congis are banking on this and hence delaying alliance with RJD and not deciding on Spl cat Ststus to Bihar but may promise after election. Interesting scenario after AP division. BJP may end up getting hurt where it had advantage.

If you can address what justification was there to form a new state, that too at lightening speed before the elections, the rest can be explained. When a new state of AP is carved out of old AP without anybody asking for it, the least the govt can do is to make sure the new govt runs properly. With an immediate revenue shortfall of Rs 17000 crores per year, and a huge capital outlay to build new capital city, it is preposterous to say that there is no justification. Once again it proves the point, that T State demand was not about T, it was all about jealousy , ego and political opportunisim.

bhavani · Post by **bhavani** » 03 Mar 2014 06:25

According to grape vine Chiranjeevi's Brother Pawan Kalyan is about to enter politics. There are also rumors that he might join AAP.

http://deccan-journal.com/content/pawan-kalyan-join-aap

It will be a big hit to Chiranjeevi, if Pawan joins AAP or even if he forms his own party. He will lose a lot of fans and the kapu vote will also be divided.

Dasari · Post by **Dasari** » 03 Mar 2014 06:42

Looking at the ap reorganization bill that president has signed and made it a law, it is shocking that Congress and BJP passed the bill as is ( the way it was sent to AP assembly) with no amendments. So it seems that all the drama in the last few days of Parliament was just a tactic to defer the passage until the last minute. It simply means Congress could have done anything to the bill in any form or shape and still passed the bill in Parliament without any problem.

Then the question to ask is why did they not incorporate the three amendments in the bill itself, instead of passing them as three new ordinances that President signed today. Are they serious about these ordinances or do they use them as some sticks to threaten TRS who is dilly-dallying the promised merger? If TRS merges, will they go slow on these ordinances or withdraw them (if it was in the bill, they wouldn't have this lever).

Dasari · Post by **Dasari** » 03 Mar 2014 07:02

bhavani wrote:According to grape vine Chiranjeevi's Brother Pawan Kalyan is about to enter politics. There are also rumors that he might join AAP.

http://deccan-journal.com/content/pawan-kalyan-join-aap

It will be a big hit to Chiranjeevi, if Pawan joins AAP or even if he forms his own party. He will lose a lot of fans and the kapu vote will also be divided.

Historically Kapu vote was never consolidated. For a brief period some degree of consolidation occured with chiranjeevi but fizzled out as he sold out his party. It took further setback, when the so called stalwarts of kapu community fought very timidly on the issue of state division. We are back to historical norms, where the kapu vote bank is distributed across all parties and will not be a factor in the electoral outcomes.

The 2014 elections will be run soley on two factors: 1. state division - who was responsible and who can bring the state back to normalcy 2. Money - every party is selecting candidates based on money. Even their past legacy doesn't matter. If a candidate can't spend at least Rs 50 crores for a MP seat, there is no seat either in YSRCP or TDP. 2014 will set new records in election campaign spending. IMO, this is foolish as this time around the outcome will be mostly dictated by the first factor.

johneeG · Post by **johneeG** » 03 Mar 2014 07:30

There are reports that Eye Bee gave reports to kongis that they will get about 60 seats. Some say that internal reports of lotus predict atleast 250+ seats for lotus itself. Even regular MSM surveys indicate that lotus will form the sarkaar and kongis will get routed regardless of T issue. In such a scenario, why are kongis & lotus so keen on separate T issue at all? To kongis, it doesn't matter what happens in AP, they are going to lose at national level. Even if kongis win all the seats in T, they will still lose. Then, why commit hara-kiri in coastal & seema areas for no gains? Couldn't kongis get 10-15 seats from united AP, if they seriously concentrated on such seats for a year or two? Similarly, why is lotus so interested in separate T when it is clearly winning? Why would the kongis & lotus spend the last of their parliamentary days on T issue when it is clearly not going to impact on national elections?

So, there is something else that is driving apart from electoral calculations. Is the amirkhan amby's meet with politicians connected to passing the T bill? It is generally assumed that the amby would be interested in FDI issue. But, maybe the T issue also comes up.

So, effects of separation need to be properly studied?
a) it will lead to other separation demands. One leading to another...

3 Karbi Anglong : Karbi Anglong is one of the two hill districts of Assam
4 Vidarbha :Vidarbha (Marathi: विदर्भ) is a region that comprises the Amravati and Nagpur divisions of eastern Maharashtra.
5 Harit Pradesh / Paschimanchal/Braj: Harit Pradesh is a proposed state, which would comprise 22 districts of Western Uttar Pradesh
6 Awadh / Central Uttar Pradesh: Awadh state consisting of Awadhi speaking districts of central Uttar Pradesh.
7 Purvanchal: Purvanchal is a geographic region of north-central India, which comprises the eastern end of Uttar Pradesh state.
8 Bundelkhand: Bundelkhand comprises parts of Uttar Pradesh and Madhya Pradesh.
9 Kashmir: The proposed Kashmir state comprise the Kashmir region in Jammu & Kashmir
10 Jammu/ Dogradesh: The Jammu region of the present day Indian state of 'Jammu and Kashmir' is predominantly inhabited by the 'Dogras'.
11 Ladakh: Ladakh, comprising a sizeable chunk of eastern Jammu and Kashmir, has asked for Union Territory status as part of a desire to protect its Buddhist culture from the influence of the mainly Muslim Kashmir Valley.
12 Gorkhaland: Gorkhaland is a proposed state covering areas inhabited by the Gorkha people, namely Darjeeling hills and Dooars in the northern part of West Bengal.
13 Kamtapur: Kamtapur in northern parts of West Bengal.
14 Bodoland:
15 Dimaraji:
16 Kongu Nadu: Kongu Nadu is a region comprising majorly of western Tamil Nadu and also including parts of southern Karanataka and northern Kerala.
17 Kosal: The Kosal region is the entire Wester Odisha area located in Odisha state
18 Mithila: Mithila is proposed to cover the Maithili speaking regions of Bihar and Jharkhand with Saharsa as the capital.
19 Tulu Nadu: Tulu Nadu is a region on the border between the states of Karnataka and Kerala in southern India.
20 North Karnataka: North Karnataka is the region that was Hyderabad Karnataka and Bombay Karnataka prior to States Reorganisation Act, 1956.
21 Vindhya Pradesh: Vindhya Pradesh was a former state in central India, named after the Vindhya Range.
22 Kukiland: The Kuki Hills was an independent hill country during the pre-British colonial period. It was merged by the colonial power into Manipur.
23 Kutch and Saurashtra: Saurashtra was formed by union of different princely states and Kutch was a separate princely state which became border state after independence of India. Saurashtra and Kutch were Part-B and Part-C states of India respectively. Both were separate states till 1956 and later merged with Bombay state following the States Reorganization Act.[

Bangic Land, Mizoram: People from Chakma Autonomous District Council (CADC) of Mizoram are demanding for a new Union Territory Bangic Land.
Garoland, Meghalaya: People from Garo regions of Meghalaya are demanding for a new state Garoland.
Gondwana, which would include portions of Andhra Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Madhya Pradesh, and Maharashtra.[citation needed]
Hyderabad State, which would comprise two districts (Hyderabad and Ranga Reddy).[52]
Karaikal district (Tamil: காரைக்கால் மாவட்டம்) is one of the four districts of the Puducherry Union Territory, lying 150 km (93 mi) south of the Pondicherry district. There is a movement to transform Karaikal district into a separate union territory because of a perceived lack of development compared to the rest of Puducherry.[53]
Frontier nagaland, covers four eastern districts of Nagaland. The aspiring state accuses the other ethnic groups in the rest of nagaland of social and economic discrimination.[citation needed]
Konkan, comprising the Konkani-speaking areas of Raigad, Ratnagiri, Thane, Mumbai, Navi Mumbai and Sindhudurg districts in Maharashtra.[54][55]

Link

This seems to the first domino effect at national level.

Such a division would cut down the regional players and give rise to sub-regional players. So, regional players will have to come up with an alternative plan.

vivek.rao · Post by **vivek.rao** » 03 Mar 2014 07:35

bhavani wrote:According to grape vine Chiranjeevi's Brother Pawan Kalyan is about to enter politics. There are also rumors that he might join AAP.

http://deccan-journal.com/content/pawan-kalyan-join-aap

It will be a big hit to Chiranjeevi, if Pawan joins AAP or even if he forms his own party. He will lose a lot of fans and the kapu vote will also be divided.

Every Tom,Dick and Harry wants to serve the people just b4 election. Form a party or join some party and people flock to them,

TKiran · Post by **TKiran** » 03 Mar 2014 08:08

ramana wrote:No need for violence. Its not India Pakistan model, more like Czech and Slovakia velvet revolution besides with BJP in Delhi can expect better law and order.

I am more inclined to think of a new Green Zone with MIM as the objective. But KCR being there is a new wrinkle to that.

Ramana garu,

That means the game is still on... New players, new moves etc... Hope the situation confines to Hyderabad only. Expect more dhamakas in Hyderabad. More troubles in Iran.

Why not we identify those behind the scene and eliminate them in gruesome manner? Otherwise why can't our external intelligence agents bring it on to their homeland s, just like PVNR did to TSP?

chetak · Post by **chetak** » 03 Mar 2014 08:44

and they are off..........

Telangana Muslims demand political reservation, return of wakf properties

Muslims, who constitute about 18 per cent of the population of Telangana, have expressed concern that they will be marginalised in the new state and have demanded political reservation for their community, sufficient employment, a common minimum programme, return of wakf properties, and an assurance of safety and security.

Representatives of several Muslim bodies met Thursday and stressed the need for political empowerment in the new state. “Muslims will decide the fate of future politics of Telangana state through strategic voting… We want all parties to nominate Muslim candidates in constituencies where there is sizeable population of Muslims,’’ Telangana Muslims Joint Action Committee (TMJAC) president Mushtak Malik said while addressing a conference on the “Future of Muslims in Telangana”.

A draft “Charter of Demands” was prepared during the conference — attended by Muslim leaders from all 10 districts of Telangana. The major demands put forth were 12 per cent reservation for Muslims in jobs and education, at least three seats for Muslims in the state Cabinet, that the first official language status should go to Urdu and that encroached wsakf lands be restored.

Moulana Hamed Hussain Shattari, Sunni Ulema Board President, at the conference asked the community to refrain from indulging in emotional and communal politics and instead make a comprehensive plan for its political empowerment

vivek.rao · Post by **vivek.rao** » 03 Mar 2014 17:27

Meanwhile Jaggu the Evangelist has other ideas

johneeG · Post by **johneeG** » 03 Mar 2014 17:29

So, EJs & jihadhis are trying to flex muscles in their respective zones while the Hindhus/Thelugus are divided!

fanne · Post by **fanne** » 03 Mar 2014 17:31

did he enter or only tried?

sum · Post by **sum** » 03 Mar 2014 17:42

Not sure about footwear part but he did enter and go around:
Jagan’s Tirumala visit rakes up controversy

YSR Congress president Y.S. Jaganmohan Reddy who offered prayers at the Lord Venkateswara temple in Tirumala on Sunday raked up a controversy again.

Mr. Jagan, along with the party leaders and hundreds of supporters, arrived at the hill shrine. He entered the main temple complex like any other commoner from the Vaikuntam queue complex. Allegations are rife that scores of his followers forcibly gained entry into the temple without proper authorisation.

The followers failed to produce proper identity proof which is mandatorily required during the time of entry for the darshan.

Muppalla · Post by **Muppalla** » 03 Mar 2014 19:50

http://www.eenadu.net/news/newsitem.asp ... panel&no=1

I don't have time to translate but border changes are happening on Khammam district and transferring some Mandals to AP from T.

vishvak · Post by **vishvak** » 03 Mar 2014 20:16

"and they are off.........."

Shouldn't these people be in Pakistan, with all shades of green, to demand religious reservations?

Dasari · Post by **Dasari** » 03 Mar 2014 20:54

Now it is official. TRS is not going to merge with Congress. On top of this, now KCR accuses that Congress didn't consider even a single demand of TRS and he never agreed for merger. He starts all-out attack on local congress leaders. They also constituted a separate committee to look into possible alliances. This should teach Congress great lesson. If Congress and TRS go separate in the elections, the space left for BJP will also shrink further. That would be a great lesson for them too. The irony is that both of them screwed SA royally to appease T, but now they have to come to SA to salvage something out of AP.

vivek.rao · Post by **vivek.rao** » 03 Mar 2014 21:37

Dasari wrote:Now it is official. TRS is not going to merge with Congress. On top of this, now KCR accuses that Congress didn't consider even a single demand of TRS and he never agreed for merger. He starts all-out attack on local congress leaders. They also constituted a separate committee to look into possible alliances. This should teach Congress great lesson. If Congress and TRS go separate in the elections, the space left for BJP will also shrink further. That would be a great lesson for them too. The irony is that both of them screwed SA royally to appease T, but now they have to come to SA to salvage something out of AP.

Are you giving Telangana on platter to TRS?
No contest?

ShyamSP · Post by **ShyamSP** » 03 Mar 2014 23:47

Dasari wrote:Now it is official. TRS is not going to merge with Congress. On top of this, now KCR accuses that Congress didn't consider even a single demand of TRS and he never agreed for merger. He starts all-out attack on local congress leaders. They also constituted a separate committee to look into possible alliances. This should teach Congress great lesson. If Congress and TRS go separate in the elections, the space left for BJP will also shrink further. That would be a great lesson for them too. The irony is that both of them screwed SA royally to appease T, but now they have to come to SA to salvage something out of AP.

INC+TRS is advantageous to BJP and TDP. This effort is to deny opportunities for non-Congress as TRS going to INC means some sections of TRS will go back to BJP and TDP. There may be hidden deal TRS goes for Assembly and Congress gets MP seats. This denying also gives TRS to dup BJP which is made up of bunch of dunce people.

PRP attacked Congress, but during elections fielded strong candidates to defeat TDP candidates who had chances to win at the same time fielded weak candidates or sold seats so Congress won easily.

Look at YSRC, the more they attack Sonia, the more they think they can win. Coming to elections they will also go PRP way.

Ghardha Vilapam: "Ayyo nena ee mundani. Vuppu ni moshe naku, vuppuni notlo kotte ame pera naaku. Ayyere paga vadiki kuda rakudadu ee dusthiti"