Re: Telangana Monitor
Posted: 20 Jul 2011 19:53
by Yagnasri
They are all political leaders and they all have no credibulity to start with.
Admin - I tried to put the 8th chapter in my blog but some how it is not taking. So I have reproduced the entire text here. Hope you are ok with it. As already mentioned I can not atheticate the same.
1. INTRODUCTION
This detailed note covers the likely immediate backlash/ law and order situations that get
created in the State on the submission of the Report at the end of the month as a reaction
to the perceived course of action by the Government of India on whatever option may
finally get exercised. The note also discusses some major long term internal security
related issues. The assessment given in the note is based on ( i) analysis of certain
relevant memoranda given by the political parties and other groups ( ii) information
gained through interaction with different political parties/ groups at State level and during
field visits ( districts and villages) ( iii) discussions held with Senior Officers of the State
Government including that of the Police Department with District Collectors and
Superintendents of Police and with other sources and ( v) own experience.
2. BACKGROUND
2.1 The demand for a separate Telangana State had been existing even before the creation
of the State of Andhra Pradesh on November 1, 1956 after the merger of Telangana areas
of the erstwhile Hyderabad State with the State of Andhra that had been carved out in
1953 out of the Madras Presidency. Prior to the merger and with a view to provide
safeguards for protecting the interest of Telangana, an agreement called ‘ The
Gentleman’s Agreement’ involving the leaders of both the regions was signed in
February, 1956. However, discontent over the ab- initio non- implementation of some of
the key decisions ( ibid Chapter 1 of Report) in the Agreement resulted in a major “
separate Telangana agitation” in 1968- 1969. This agitation which was mainly
spearheaded by the students started in Warangal District in December 1968 and spread to
other regions of Telangana receiving support of various parties and organizations of the
region. In the wake of this agitation there was large scale destruction of public/ private
property.
Besides, reportedly it resulted in the death of 57 persons with 217 persons injured as per
the figures based on Andhra Pradesh police inputs). The agitation was, however, brought
under control after a few months on account of the strong stand taken by Smt. Indira
Gandhi, the then Prime Minister. The Government of India promised to undertake
remedial action against the violations of the Agreement and P. V. Narasimha Rao
belonging to Telangana region, was made Chief Minister of the State on September 30,
1971.
2.2 On 28th March, 1969, the Mulki rules were held invalid by the High Court.
However, the Supreme Court declared them constitutionally valid on October 3, 1972
giving rise to a situation where jobs occupied by the Andhra People were required to be
vacated. The reaction to this development was that it led to a strong ‘ Jai Andhra
movement’ in Coastal Andhra and Rayalaseema regions in late 1972. This movement
also witnessed a high level of violence resulting in 69 causalities. Among these, seven
Government personnel were killed and 66 injured. Around 350 citizens were also injured.
This movement was also contained through firm handling with the intervention of the
Government of India. P. V. Narasimha Rao resigned as CM on January 10, 1973 and
President’s Rule was imposed. A political settlement was worked out and a Six Point
Formula ( SPF) was agreed upon on September 28, 1973 by both the regions. A
Presidential Order was promulgated on May 3, 1975 which provided for accelerated
development of backward areas, state level Planning Boards/ Sub Committees for
backward areas, reservation for local candidates for non- gazetted posts/ educational
institutions, discontinuation of Telangana
Regional Committee and Mulki Rules.
Accordingly, the state was divided into Six Zones and Hyderabad was included in Zone
6.
However, for the State Secretariat, directorates, commissionerates and state level offices
located in Hyderabad, recruitment was done treating Hyderabad as a free zone i. e.
anybody in the state could compete. Over a period of time, there were violations in the
implementation of SPF and GO 610 was issued ( December 30, 1985) to rectify them.
The Girgilani Commission appointed by the State Government pointed out in 2004 that
there had been several instances of violations of the GO 610 during the previous 30 years
and recommended corrective action. AP High Court also issued direction for
implementation of GO 610 within 3 months. The Government issued 4 GOs, out of which
GOs 72 and 116 were not implemented, while GOs 399 and 415 were issued and later
cancelled.
The implementation of GO 610 in the last 4 to 5 years, however, has been reported to be
satisfactory with a major part of the grievances redressed. Recently, the Supreme Court
cancelled ( October 9, 2009) the transfer orders of some police inspectors ( as per GO
610), holding that Hyderabad being a cosmopolitan city should be treated as a free zone.
Subsequent to this order the Andhra Pradesh Assembly passed a Resolution on 18.3.2010
as quoted below: “ This House resolves to request the Ministry of Home Affairs,
Government of India to obtain the approval of President of India to Clause ( 1) of Para 14
of the Andhra Pradesh Public Employment ( organization of Local cadres and Regulation
of Direct Recruit) Order 1975”. ( The above resolution has been forwarded to
Government of India.) 2.3 Meanwhile, simmering discontentment among Telangana
people over nonimplementation of various protective provisions for Telangana was
highlighted by Telangana Rashtra Samithi ( TRS) which was floated on April 27, 2001
by K Chandrasekhar Rao ( KCR). In 2004 general elections TRS entered into an alliance
with the Congress Party with a commitment for creation of Telangana as a separated
State. TRS joined both the State and Central Government, and the issue was included in
the Common Minimum Programme of UPA- 1. The GoI appointed a Cabinet Sub
Committee headed by Pranab Mukherjee on January 5, 2005 to evolve a consensus on the
issue. However, the Pranab Committee could not arrive at any clear cut conclusion and
reportedly suggested appointment of a Second States’ Reorganisation Commission to
look into the issue. KCRejected the suggestion and withdrew from both the central
government and state governments in protest. Between 2004 and 2009 KCRepresented
the Karimnagar Parliament seat. Sensing adverse mood of the people towards the failure
of KCR he resigned his seat in 2006. He retained his seat in the keenly contested byeelection
by a huge margin. Many protagonists of Telangana campaigned extensively for
that election. Subsequently, KCR started losing support within the party and yet again he
enforced bye- elections in four Lok Sabha seats and 16 assembly seats. The outcome of
the bypolls was a huge set back as KCR lost many seats held by his partymen. The
percentage of vote share obtained by the TRS attracted the attention of TDP and its leader
Chandra Babu Naidu to explore a possible tie- up. The TDP which fought the 2004
general elections on the plank of united Andhra Pradesh has reversed its decision to take
advantage of the strong sentiment prevailing in the Telangana Districts.
At the time of general elections held in 2009, TRS joined the TDP’s grand alliance. The
congress party contested without any allies.
The Telangana Congress leaders asserted that Smt. Sonia Gandhi, would take an
appropriate decision on Telangana at an appropriate time.
The TRSuffered big electoral defeat winning just 10 seats for the state assembly and just
two seats for the Parliament. The Telangana protagonists deserted the TRS and KCR.
Only after the demise of former CM YS Rajasekhar Reddy, the state politics ran into
instability bringing back the demand for Telangana state.
The announcement over the formation of State of Telangana made by the union
government on 9th December, 2009 had generated unrest among the Seemandhra people.
The union government had constituted this committee to examine the demand for a
separate state of Telangana as well as the demand for maintaining the present status of a
united Andhra Pradesh.
3. PRESENT SITUATION
3.1 The demand for a separate State of Telangana has its root in the perceived
discrimination against the people of Telangana by the Seemandhra leaders in the fields of
education, water and irrigation resources, job opportunities including employment in
Government and issues of development, besides the unfulfilment of some key assurances
given in the Gentlemen’s Agreement particularly pertaining to political space for
Telangana ( e. g. CM/ Dy. CM).
Different communities/ groups have their own perception on benefits which may accrue
to them from the formation of Telangana. In addition, there is a strong emotional factor
attached with the demand for a separate state.
The people of Telangana believe that the problem of discrimination against their region
that has existed hitherto can only be overcome by having their own independent identity.
3.2 The student community and the unemployed youth feel that the creation of new State
will lead to increased employment opportunities for them, as the government jobs in
Telangana region will then not go to the Seemandhra people. The student community is
already campaigning for 42% reservation in Group- I posts for those belonging to
Telangana and boycotted classes/ examinations and organized bandh on the issue on
September 4 and 5, 2010, respectively.
Telangana lawyers also see a separate State as an opportunity to get more appointments
to the posts of Public Prosecutors, Assistant Public Prosecturors and Standing Counsels
in the New State. They, under the banner of Telangana Advocates Joint Action
Committee, started an agitation on September 13, 2010 targetting judges and advocates
belonging to Seemandhra region demanding a 42% reservation in the said posts. There
has been a long standing demand for appointment of the Advocate General hailing from
Telangana. The government employees of Telangana also welcome the formation of a
new State as they feel that this may lead to faster promotions.
Government employees belonging to Seemandhra region, though generally opposed to
the formation of a new State, are not coming out openly against the demand for
Telangana, fearing action and witch- hunt by pro- Telangana political parties in the
eventuality of a separate State being formed. The expectations of the farmers have also
been raised that they will gain both in terms of availability of water as well as power, in
the new State. Several caste groups, especially those belonging to backward classes and
minorities have also been allured with promises of free education at all levels and
increase in reservation for them in government jobs in the new State.
3.3 The Muslim community, especially the All India Majlis Ittehadul Musalmeen
( AIMIM), the main Muslim political party of Andhra Pradesh, is apprehensive of the fate
and status of the Muslim community, in the eventuality of a separate Telangana being
formed. This concern arises out of the fact that BJP being a strong proponent of the
ongoing pro- Telangana agitation is likely to play a bigger role after the formation of a
new state. The AIMIM, however, has decided against openly opposing the formation of
separate Telangana, fearing a backlash, both against the party and the Muslim
community, in the event of the new State being formed. Besides, many Muslims residing
in various districts of Telangana are also strongly supporting the new State. Their
grievance of not getting adequate jobs and loss of land held by them is noteworthy.
Accordingly, AIMIM has diluted its stand of completely opposing Telangana and is now
indirectly supporting the formation of a new State albeit, comprising the erstwhile
territory of the Nawab of Hyderabad, viz.
Telangana region along with Rayalaseema ( Rayala Telangana) as a second option in case
keeping the State united does not work out.
However, this may not be acceptable to the Andhra leaders who would lose Hyderabad
completely and also face hardship in securing rights over river waters.
4. POSSIBLE OPTIONS
4.1 The committee has discussed six possible options in the concluding part of the Report
not recommending the first three and giving preferential order to the remaining three. The
backlash/ law & order problems and the internal security related issues in case of each of
the six options/ scenarios ( as listed below) have been covered in this paragraph.
Scenario 1) To treat the movement as a normal law and order situation to be handled
purely by the State with usual support from the Centre Scenario 2) Creation of a separate
State of Telangana with Hyderabad becoming a Union Territory.
Scenario 3) To merge Rayalaseema with Telangana and create a new State Rayala
Telangana with Hyderabad as its Capital Scenario 4) In case of a separate Telangana,
creation of a larger Union Territory of Hyderabad by connecting Hyderabad ( HMDA)
with Guntur ( Coastal Andhra) in South- East and Kurnool ( Rayalaseema) in the South
via Nalgonda and Mehboobnagar ( both Telangana districts) respectively through
creation of appropriate corridors by merging a few Mandals with Hyderabad ( HMDA)
Scenario 5) To grant Statehood to Telangana with Hyderabad as its Capital Scenario 6)
Providing Constitutional/ Statutory safeguards to Telangana region by guaranteeing
redressal of the region’s major grievances and keeping the State united.
SCENARIO 1
To treat the movement as a normal law and order situation to be handled purely by the
State with usual support from the Centre: ( a) Agitations: ( i) In view of the fact that
under this option the employment and other expectations and particularly the emotional
satisfaction of the people of Telangana will not be met, immediate backlash will take
place in the form of violent agitations in Telangana region which may continue for a few
months.
However, besides sporadic agitations on specific demands like employment
opportunities, sharing of water resources etc.
may continue for a longer period. In Telangana, the backlash is likely to be more
pronounced in TRS dominated districts of Karimnagar, Warangal, Medak and parts of
Nizamabad.
( ii) Furthermore it is anticipated that the agitation in and around Hyderabad would be
intense, since the various Joint Action Committees of students, advocates, government
employees, youth and mass organizations would try to paralyse normal life in and around
Hyderabad. The agitations by the coal workers of Singareni Coal Company Ltd ( SCCL)
( spread over Karimnagar, Adilabad, Khammam and Warangal districts) would adversely
affect coal production. This in turn would affect the coal supply to the thermal power
plants and thus the power position both at the state and national level.
The rail and road traffic in the Telangana region may also be affected. The agitations are
also expected to adversely affect the functioning of industrial and other business
establishments. The pro- Telangana agitators are likely to target business establishments
and financial interests/ assets of the Seemandhra leaders. This will adversely affect the
inflow of investments into Hyderabad thus hampering the city’s economic growth and
creating public unrest on account of lost employment opportunities.
( iii) The peoples’ representatives especially MLAs, MLCs and MPs from Telangana
region belonging to all political parties would be under pressure to resign as evidenced
earlier. Telangana Rashtra Samithi ( TRS) and the recently constituted Telangana Praja
Front ( TPF – Gaddar) would take the lead in organizing various programmes. Mass
resignations could create political crisis in the state. The verbal attack of the Telangana
leaders against the Seemandhra leaders is expected to increase. The divisions within
Congress, the TDP, as well as the state cabinet will need to be watched and suitably
addressed. Public property like government offices, road transport vehicles etc., would
need to be secured as they are likely to be the target of the agitationists. Hyderabad has
about 100 central institutions including defence establishments and defence research
institutions that are important from the national security point of view. A separate plan
would have to be drawn up for the protection of these institutions. Besides, the social,
economic and political tensions, prolonged Telangana agitation would put a severe strain
on the State’s law and order machinery.
( b) Maoist Violence: In the event of the demand of a separate Telangana state not being
realized, some of the militant elements which have been in the forefront of the agitations
may go underground to revive the Maoist movement in certain pockets of Telangana
which, however, could possibly be tackled within a small time- frame with firm political
will and strong administrative action.
The Maoists who are active in Dandakaranya and Andhra- Orissa Border areas viz.,
Khammam, East Godavari, Vizag etc., and certain forest areas of Adilabad, Karimnagar
and Warangal may continue to operate along the borders with Madhya Pradesh,
Chattisgarh, Maharashtra and Orissa. Their activities might be more intense in Vizag and
Khammam regions but the fall out of violence may mostly be confined to these few
districts.
( c) Communal Violence : As the State has, by and large, been able to neutralize most of
the Jihadi elements in the last two decades and has evolved suitable mechanisms to
contain communal and factional resistances, there may not be much change on the
position on these two fronts. The status quo may remain. Since the alignment of political
forces on communal lines is likely to be less probable, the outbreak of communal
violence would be contingent upon extraneous factors.
( d) Migration issues : Since Hyderabad city or greater Hyderabad ( GHMC) limits have
been a focused area for development and investments, both skilled and unskilled labour
of all the three regions may continue to migrate to Hyderabad city, putting tremendous
pressure on the water and land utilization. These migrants may alter the population
dynamics of Hyderabad city and the competition for employment opportunities and the
subsequent frustration may lead to sporadic conflicts between people of various regions
in Hyderabad city.
SCENARIO 2
Creation of separate State of Telangana with Hyderabad becoming a Union Territory ( a)
Agitations: Apart from the backlash mentioned in Scenario- 1, there may be severe
discontentment among the people of Telangana that Hyderabad city, which has been
historically part of Telangana, has been taken away from them. Telangana without
Hyderabad will be handicapped in terms of State revenues, industrial growth,
employment potential, education, infrastructure and other facilities, leading to large scale
dissatisfaction and unrest in the region. Hyderabad could emerge as an Island surrounded
by a region that is unhappy with its residents – while the residents of Hyderabad would
be dependent on the surroundings for several resources and transport. In addition,
Hyderabad city which is dependent upon Telangana for drinking water supplies, and is
surrounded by Telangana, may face the consequences of violent agitations of Telangana
which could lead to blockade of supply in drinking water, transportation, other services
etc. Hyderabad may also provide the base for agitation to both Telanganites and
Seemandhra people.
( b) Maoist Violence: Telangana without Hyderabad city may face a set back with a vast
chunk of its populace deprived of economic opportunities and thereby provide a fertile
ground for Naxalism to flourish.
Hyderabad city may also be affected by Maoist activities, as Maoists will try to use
Hyderabad city for shelter and generation of funds. Since the State would be divided, it
may become a difficult task for the security forces to coordinate operations to curb
Maoists activities in the urban areas of Hyderabad, in the forest tracts of Telangana and
Seemandhra.
( c) Communal Violence : The political forces viz., the AIMIM and the BJP in their race
to consolidate and expand their base may arouse passions causing a deeper divide
between the Hindus and Muslims. This may create a favourable atmosphere for the
communal forces to take charge and cause disharmony, which may have a cascading
effect in other parts of Telangana and rest of the country, providing a fertile hunting
ground for the terror elements. This scenario may lead to coordination problems for the
security forces to carry out their operations.
( d) Migration : Hyderabad as a UT, may also have influx of migrants from other States,
increasing pressure on land, water, disparities between people of various regions fuelling
social unrest both in Telangana as well as in Hyderabad. The citizens of Telangana may
get treated as non- locals in Hyderabad city, limiting their employment prospects and
economic growth, and this frustration can lead to conflicts. The students of Telangana
region would become more dependent on Hyderabad for advanced studies in professional
courses and higher education, as scope for undertaking professional courses presently is
rather limited in the Telangana region. This may lead to discontent among the students,
fuelling student agitations. In case of a separate Telangana, the feeling is that
Rayalaseema will continue to be neglected in Seemandhra.
Hence there is likelihood of starting of the demand for separate Rayalaseema and
consequent agitations.
SCENARIO 3
To merge Rayalaseema with Telangana and create a new State Rayalatelangana with
Hyderabad as its Capital 1. This scenario is not likely to be accepted either by the pro-
Telangana or by the United- Andhra protagonists. The only groups who are likely to be
satisfied are i) AIMIM, who have been saying that if a new State has to be carved out,
then it should comprise the areas of Telangana and Rayalaseema and ii) certain sections
of society of Rayalaseema region.
Since BJP has a strong presence, it may try to consolidate in Telangana areas and further
expand its base. AIMIMay try to expand in Rayalaseema regions resulting in birth of
militant communalism in certain pockets. The potentially affected areas are expected to
be: Adoni ( Kurnool), Kadiri, Hindipur ( Anantapur), Madanapalli, Punganuru ( Chittoor)
and Rayachoti and Kadapa town.
2. The emotional as well as the economic aspirations of the people of Telangana will also
not be served, as there is a predominant feeling among the people of Telangana that the
Rayalaseema leaders have taken over the commercially profitable land of Hyderabad city
and will continue to dominate the people of Telangana. It is to be noted that not a single
political and social group from Telangana responded favourably to this suggestion
wherever the Committee had an opportunity to discuss the same with them.
3. The situation described later in scenario- 5 may also generally apply in this case too in
certain respects.
SCENARIO 4
In case of separate Telangana, creation of a larger Union Territory of Hyderabad by
connecting Hyderabad ( HMDA) with Guntoor ( Coastal Andhra) in South- East and
Kurnool ( Rayalaseema) in the South via Nalgonda and Mahboob Nagar ( both Telangana
districts) respectively through creation of appropriate corridors by merging a few
Mandals with Hyderabad ( HMDA) 1. This proposal links Hyderabad to all the three
regions of the State so that these regions have geographical contiguity and physical
access to Hyderabad which has emerged as the key issue in the entire scheme of things.
Hyderabad may then contain the capitals of both Telangana as well as Coastal Andhra
and may even cater to the possible resultant aspirations of Rayalaseema.
2. While larger Union Territory of Hyderabad to be governed on a mixed ( Chandigarh
Delhi) with a Legislative Assembly and a Lt. Governor may have the advantage of
addressing the issue relating to the status of Hyderabad and may even make Hyderabad
Megapolis, an economic giant in due course and in the process help the border towns of
all the three regions to grow substantially ( as seen in Delhi and Chandigarh), inputs
received indicate that reactions to this option are also expected to be on the same lines as
indicated in Scenario 2 discussed earlier and there will be, atleast for a period of time,
serious agitations particularly from Telangana region on two counts namely ( i)
Hyderabad not becoming exclusively the capital of Telangana and ( ii) merging parts of
two districts of Telangana for creation of the larger Union Territory. The political
agreement on this proposal may also prove to be difficult to arrive at thus creating other
governance related tensions. In fact, Scenario 2 would be relatively easier for convincing
Telanganites.
SCENARIO 5
To grant Statehood to Telangana with Hyderabad as its Capital 1. In this scenario,
although the emotional aspirations of the people of Telangana to have their own State
will be satisfied, economic expectations, including enhanced job opportunities which they
expect, may not actually materialize. This may lead to frustration among the youth ( who
are in the forefront of this agitation), professionals and even farmers. This frustration may
lead to ‘ scape- goating’, leading to targeted attacks on Seemandhra settlers and their
properties. The reasons for the same are given below:- ( i) The pro- Telangana political
parties and forums are blaming the Seemandhra people for the neglect of Telangana
region and are offering tall promises after the creation of the new State. However, the fact
remains that it would not be possible to fulfill all these promises due to inherent factors.
This does not imply that there would be no additional job opportunities and promotional
avenues in the new State. However, these numbers are likely to fall way short of
expectations.
( ii) The only way, the economic aspirations of the people of Telangana can be met is by
accelerated economic development in the region. This is dependent on political stability,
maintenance of law and order, availability of natural resources and of skilled manpower.
However, it has been experienced in the contemporary period, that Nation and its
constituents e. g. states encounter threats from a number of political, social and religious
formations with ultra and radical views which tend to threaten the security of nationhood
or as in this case statehood. Andhra Pradesh has been under the threat of leftwing
extremists for a long period though for the present the problem has been largely
contained. The important question that emerges in this context is that, whether a separate
State of Telangana can sustain the state supremacy over the leftwing agitations and
threats from other radical/ extremists organizations/ groups. As discussed in the
succeeding sub- paragraphs, the existing scenario in regard to this issue does not offer an
optimistic picture. Most of the industries etc. are located in and around Hyderabad. With
the bifurcation of the state and Hyderabad in Telangana region, incidents of agitations,
dharnas and even violence, are expected. This may result in flight of capital, stagnant
growth and disincentive for entrepreneurs, leading to slow down of economic activity. In
the short term Hyderabad may witness a vicious cycle of agitations, slow down of
economic activity and greater frustration. These factors along with irrigation/ water issues
would have a definite adverse impact on revenue generation and industrial development
of the State and may actually offset any gains in terms of additional employment
opportunities and promotional avenues that will emerge.
( iii) There is also every likelihood of revival of agitations against the formation of a new
State in the Seemandhra region, including in the city of Hyderabad.
( a) Maoist violence: ( i) The Maoists are also likely to gain by the creation of a new
state. The new state is likely to be soft towards them initially, given that they have over
the years supported the struggle for the formation of Telangana. By the time the state
realizes the Maoist menace, it may be too late for the state to handle them with a
bifurcated police force contributing to a weaker response to the problem. The CPI
( Maoist) will also use political boundaries of state and districts, to their advantage. It is
not without reason that most of the Maoist zones, sub- zones etc., straddle state and
district boundaries.
Experience shows that inter- state coordination in anti- naxal operations still has a lot of
catching up to do and the Naxals have taken advantage of this weakness. Telangana is
also contiguous with other highly affected Maoist areas viz., Chhattisgarh and
Maharashtra States. As such it is likely that the Maoists will extend their activities from
these neighbouring states to Telangana, especially the districts of Adilabad, Karimnagar,
Warangal, Khammam, parts of Nizamabad and Medak in north Telangana and
Mahboobnagar and Nalgonda in south Telangana. It is important to note that it is not
entirely a coincidence that the increased spread of Maoist violence in Chhattisgarh and
Jharkhand, has been after thecreation of these states. Increase in poverty which is a
natural corollary to a slowdown in economic activity, will drive more people into the
arms of the CPI ( Maoist). This may again lead to a vicious cycle of naxalism, leading to
less of economic activity and greater impoverishment, which may provide fillip to left
wing extremism.
( ii) An important development that has to be noted is that after K. Chandra Shekar Rao
gave up his fasting protest on 30.11.2009, Gaddar organized wide spread protests and
later the top leadership of Maoists including Kishanji @ Mallojula Koteshwar have
organized various protests programs through students of Osmania University and other
universities of Telangana. Thus, while the student’s involvement in the Telangana
agitation became very intense due to the encouragement of the local committees of the
Maoists, Telangana Rashtra Samithi was also forced to utilize simmering sentiment in the
students. When the intensity of the agitation by TRStarted ebbing down, Gaddar floated a
new front called Telangana Praja Front ( TPF) on the instructions of the underground
cadre of the Maoists to sustain agitation for a very prolonged duration. This front which
is totally Maoist backed and motivated, tried to project itself as an alternate to KCR and
TRS. Thus, the Maoists are trying to make a come back through the Telangana agitation.
The impact of possible growth of Maoist/ Naxal influence in Telangana has to be
evaluated in the right perspective keeping in mind that a large number of important and
sensitive industries are located in and around Hyderabad.
Although TPF had sometime back moved away from TRS, they have again come back
together which is a matter of serious concern.
( b) Communal Violence: ( i) Historically speaking Telangana area has more communally
sensitive areas, due to the long 400 years of Qutub Shahi and Nizam rule and Razakar
movement during the postindependence days. Telangana region, most specifically
Hyderaad city has witnessed many communal riots which in most of the cases were
triggered by very small and trivial issues.
The Hindu passions are being incited by the right wing parties which has also contributed
to the outbreak of communal riots. The pockets which are vulnerable to the communal
riots are Hyderabad city, Nirmal and Bhainsa of Adilabad, Nizamabad, Bodhan and
Kamareddy of Nizamabad district, Jagityal, Korutla, Karimnagar towns of Karimnagar
district, Zaheerabad and Medak town in Medak district, Nalgonda, Bhongir areas of
Nalgonda district, Mahbubnagar and Narayanpet areas of Mahbubnagar district, Tandur
and Vikarabad of Rangareddy district.
There is a certain sense of mutual suspicion between two communities who are living in
the above mentioned areas. If communal passions become an additional factor in an
atmosphere where unemployment, social unrest etc. exist, it may give rise to birth of
militant Jihadi elements. The intelligence wing of the State Police and the IB will be
more informed on this aspect. Telangana has large number of Muslim pockets and to
counter Muslim influence, Hindu fundamentalists may compete with them and try to
polarize the Hindu population. This unhealthy competition between Hindu and Muslim
fundamentalist groups may tend to reduce the influence of the main stream secular
political parties like the Congress and the Communists in the long run.
( ii) The AIMIM, BJP, RSS and Vishwa Hindu Parishad have a reasonably strong
presence in the Telangana Region and in general take to inciting passions, indulging in
communal rhetoric etc. Both political parties ( AIMIM & BJP) will be competing to
expand their bases in Telangana state and in the process will try to ignite passions
creating potential for communal unrest.
( c) Education implications : Most of the major educational infrastructure in the
Telangana region has historically been owned by the Seemandhra people and it is located
mostly within the limits of greater Hyderabad.
The student community which is spearheading the separate Telangana agitation has been
using these educational institutions for their agitational activities. This may lead to
migration of the faculty as well as these institutions, impacting/ reducing the availability
of local persons who can be productively engaged by the industry/ business- houses.
( d) Migration issues: ( i) Telangana region is mineral rich having deposits of limestone,
and granite. The dominant industries here are thermal power stations, pharmaceuticals
etc., which are mostly managed by Seemandhra people. One of the main propaganda
issues in the Telangana agitation has been that once a separate state is created, the job
opportunities in all these industries will be made available to the people of Telangana.
Many of the owners and skilled personnel in these industries have historically been from
the Seemandhra region, the inability to substitute them with sufficient number of
qualified locals may lead to conflict between the locals and non- locals and also between
the management and the workforce.
Telangana region is dependent on coal reserves for its power generation while
Seemandhra region, though dependent on coal reserves, is rapidly expanding its energy
sources, viz., gas, wind, solar and nuclear. Thus, energy deficiencies may lead to
migration of population, imbalance in the employment opportunities, which may become
a cause for social unrest.
( ii) Farming in Telangana is mostly dependent on ground and rain water and liftirrigation
schemes which require substantial amount of electrical energy. The present Government
has extended free power facility to the farmers across the state which has benefitted the
small and marginal farmers in Telangana region to a large extent. Some districts of
Telangana region such as Nalgonda, Medak, Mahbubnagar and Hyderabad are
industrially developed and hence consume substantial amount of energy. Since Telangana
region energy sources are largely coal based thermal power plants, any economic
imbalance may lead to energy starvation of the small and marginal farmers which will
adversely affect the productivity of the land. This can cause decline in their earnings
which may result in distress sale of lands and their migration to the industrial belt in the
Hyderabad city. This may further cause change in the population profile, pressure on
unskilled employment sector, land and water utilization in Hyderabad which in turn may
accentuate inter- regional rivalry and tensions in Hyderabad area.
( iii) Telangana area is dominated by upper caste Reddys and Velamas, while the bulk of
population is from the backward community, viz. Munnur Kapu, Mudhiraj, Gouds,
Padmashalis and the Scheduled Caste Community of which the majority are ‘ madigas’.
Historically, the political and economic activity has always been dominated by the
Reddys and Velamas, and an important cause of naxalism was feudalism and
discrimination by the dominant castes over the others. Even today while the leaders of the
separate Telangana agitation are from dominant castes, the actual foot soldiers are mainly
from the BCs and SCs, who are aspiring to acquire political space and leadership. These
aspirations, if not realized may become an important factor contributing to social unrest.
SCENARIO 6
Providing Constitutional / Statutory safeguards to Telangana region by guaranteeing
redressal of the region’s major grievances and keeping the State united 1. This option
would not satisfy the people of Telangana having regard to the entrenched emotional
feelings they harbor for creation of a separate state. Their sentiments have reached a
heightened level in the recent past, were well echoed in the 12 Assembly byeelections of
August 2010 and as such have to be fully addressed. The likely agitational activities have
been discussed in the section dealing with Scenario 1 but it can be safely said that the
intensity of agitations in many parts of Telangana by students, non- gazetted officials,
lawyers, unemployed youth and even the farmers will be very high. While the emotional
aspect, that of being discriminated against by the Seemandhra people is likely to remain,
the extent to which the emotional aspirations ( the fulfillment of the psychological need
of selfgovernance) are taken care of by the constitutional / statutory guarantees will
determine the extent of backlash by the pro- Telangana people, their demand for a
separate State not having been met. It is also equally important that such guarantees are
articulated clearly and effectively brought to the notice of the general public of Telangana
by all possible means.
2. The guarantees/ economic package have to necessarily include the following, to at
least meet some of the important demands of the Telangana people: ( i) Psychological
assurance that the people of Telangana shall not be discriminated against as perceived by
them in the past and would be appropriately empowered in the decision making process
such as the representatives of Telangana being given key positions in the government. In
order to achieve this, the earlier arrangements like the decisions made in the Gentlemen’s
Agreement may have to be revisited and if need be suitably expanded and strengthened.
( ii) To ensure that the statutory guarantees/ safeguards provided are properly
implemented, provision should be made for taking out an Annual Report Card of their
implementation as a confidence building measure for the people of Telangana.
( iii) The above Annual Report Card may also include the implementation of other
recommendations made by the Committee and accepted by the Government pertaining to
different sectors such as education, employment and irrigation and water resources etc.
The above actions are extremely important as confidence building measures since
implementation on some of the mutually agreed decisions and even Government orders
has been found to be tardy and slow in the past.
3. The impression that the Telangana people have been somewhat let down in view of the
fact that though earlier an indication had been given that the process of creation of a new
State would be initiated and now since this will not be done in case the State is to stay
united, has to be dispelled in a suitable manner bringing out that it is in the best long term
interest not only for the people of the State but also for the people of Telangana. It is to
be effectively instilled in their minds that this option is the best possible solution under
the circumstances, not only for the State but for Telangana as well. Towards this end all/
most of the stakeholders/ important leaders of the State and media have to be brought on
the same page, primarily through an active interactive process.
4. Some opinions have been expressed that this situation can also be exploited by the
Maoists on the plea that unless an armed / violent agitation is carried out by the people of
Telangana, Government of India will not create Separate Telangana. This call by the
Maoists may attract unemployed youth both in rural and urban areas to join the
movement and hence needs to be watched.
5. CONCLUSION
5.1 In view of the background of the complex situation, it would be seen that under each
of the scenarios listed above, there is a high possibility of immediate agitational backlash
in different regions of the State. While a strategy for handling medium and long term
internal security dimensions, as discussed in the foregoing paras, that may emerge can be
developed as the final decision on the issue is taken by the government, the need of the
hour will be to handle the immediate backlash. In this context, the fact that TRS, the most
vocal and aggressive amongst the political parties, has held the ‘ Telangana Maha
Garjana’ rally at Warangal on December 16, 2010, reportedly attended by nearly 5 lakh
people and has also plans to launch a civil disobedience movement after December 31,
2010 while initiating the action under ‘ Maha Yudham’ ( a massive war ) if Centre does
not announce a separate Telangana, has to be kept in mind. Now since Telangana Praja
Front ( Gaddar) and TRS have come together the situation has become even more
serious.
5.2 The most important requirement for addressing the law and order problems that may
arise in our view will be i) political clarity in terms of the future course of action and ii)
the need for effective governance. The following mechanism is suggested to control the
law and order situations that may emerge soon after the report is submitted and becomes
public. The mechanism essentially should cover three areas i. e. i) political management
and sensitization of political parties ii) media management and iii) high level of
preparedness by the State Government ( Administration, Police, Intelligence, etc.) with
needed and adequate support from the Centre.
5.3 Going by the history of similar agitations earlier, the sensitivities involved and the
emotional undercurrent running across the State, the aim of this exercise has to be to take
all possible actions in advance so that the possible backlash and law and order situations
are contained and controlled effectively with minimum damage to human life and public
and private properly while at the same time ensuring that the normal systems continue to
operate and function in the State in a peaceful manner.
5.4 Role of National Integration Council ( NIC) : It is also felt that besides the action( s)
suggested above, there is simultaneously a need for the National Integration Council
( NIC) to play a pro- active role in the State with a view to foster a sense of harmony
amongst different communities so that the divisive conflicts are taken care of disorder
and violence is avoided and the important goals and objectives of socioeconomic growth
are achieved irrespective of the fact whether the division of the State takes place or not.
The Committee feels that as enshrined in the charter of the NIC it has to be suitably
emphasized that the social and economic justice can only be achieved if all the natives
regardless of their linguistic, religious ethnic or cultural affiliations work towards this
objective in a peaceful and harmonious manner. The Committee therefore, suggests that
in the instant case a suitable mechanism in this regard may be devised by the NIC in
consultation with the Union and the State Governments for implementation in the State in
addition to the other suggestions articulated in para 5.2 above. N. B. : may also kindly see
the Supplementary Note ( 3 pages) attached.
SUPPLEMENTARY NOTE
a) Political Management: ( i) There is a need for ensuring unity among the leaders of the
ruling party in the State. There is also a need for providing strong and firm political
leadership and placement of representatives of Telangana in key positions ( may be CM /
Dy.
CM) ( Since done). This aspect was discussed with FM & HM in September 2010.
Action also needs to be initiated for softening the TRS to extent possible, especially in
the context of the fact that TRS has threatened to launch a civil disobedience movement
after December 31 and also initiate a ‘ Maha Yuddam’ ( a Massive war) if Centre does
not announce a Separate Telangana. Gaddar’s TPF ( Telangana Praja Front) who had
parted company with TRS have again joined hands with TRS. Inputs indicate that this
agitation can be tackled if Telangana Congress leaders do not give an impression
indicating any covert/ over support to it. Hence the Telangana Congress MPs / MLAs
need to be taken into confidence and asked not to lend any form of support to the
agitation. The Congress High Command must sensitize its own MPS and MLAs and
educate them about the wisdom for arriving at an acceptable and workable solution. With
the ruling party and also the main opposition party ( the TDP run by Chandra Babu) must
be brought on the same page, the support mechanisms have a higher probability of
becoming successful. The TDP must be advised not to participate in any further meetings
that would be called by the Centre.
This could be an effective stumbling block for any meaningful dialogue on resolving the
Telangana demand. The Andhra Congress MPs belonging to Kamma caste must be
encouraged to work in tandem with TDP leadership which is now caught in a bad shape.
( ii) Further, on receipt of the Committee’s Report by the Government, a general message
should be conveyed amongst the people of the State that Centre will be open for detailed
discussions on the recommendations / options of the Report with the concerned leaders /
stakeholders either directly or through a Group of Ministers or through important
interlocutors and that this process will start at the earliest. But every method must be
adopted to avoid giving finality to any discussions to drag on the matter until the
agitation is totally brought under control.
( c) Media Management: ( i) Andhra Pradesh has got about 13 Electronic Channels and 5
major local Newspapers which are in the forefront of molding the public opinion. Except
for two Channels ( Raj News & HMTV), the rest of them are supporters of a united
Andhra Pradesh. The equity holders of the channels except the above two and the entire
Print Media are with the Seemandhra people. The main editors/ resident and subeditors,
the Film world etc. are dominated by Seemandhra people. A coordinated action on their
part has the potential of shaping the perception of the common man. However, the beat
journalists in the respective regions are locals and are likely to capture only those events/
news which reflect the regional sentiments. This can be tackled by the owners of the
media houses by systematically replacing the local journalists by those from Seemandhra
wherever it is possible.
( ii) Hyderabad city which is expected to be the center of most of the agitations is
generally covered by those journalists who are votaries of a separate Telangana. Hence a
lot of media hype on the Osmania University Students agitation, self- immolations etc.
may be created. Therefore, media management assumes critical importance to ensure that
only the reality is projected and no unnecessary hype is created. In the immediate past, it
is observed that the media coverage on the issue has shown a declining trend resulting in
a lower intensity of the agitation. Each of the media houses are affiliated to different
political parties. In the Print Media all major newspapers are owned by Seemandhra
people and the Regional contents published by them play a vital role. Most of the editors
except Andhra Jyothi are pro- united A. P. However, similar to the electronic channels,
the print media have also got political affiliations. The editorial opinions, the banner
headlines, the Regional content, the District editions need to be managed to be realistic
and should give only due coverage to the separate Telangana agitations. The print media
is hugely dependent on the Government for advertisement revenue and if carefully
handled can be an effective tool to achieve this goal.
However, the RTI Act may prove to be an impediment for the Government to deny due
share of ads to publications supporting the Telangana demand.
( iii) In concrete terms, it needs to be particularly ensured that media does not: ( a) Create
a Psychosis of fear amongst the public ( b) Indulge in general and baseless speculations
that can create unnecessary hype of any kind ( c) Arouse communal passions ( d) Show
old and irrelevant clippings of violence / violent agitations etc.
For this purpose necessary prohibitory orders under appropriate provisions of law can be
issued in advance.
( d) Full Preparedness ( i) As under each of the options there is a high possibility of
agitational backlash, notwithstanding the actions taken in advance as suggested in ( a)
and ( b) above, an appropriate plan of deployment grid of police force ( both Central and
State) with full technical support needs to be immediately drawn up. Advance
preparedness in this regard would go a long way in containing the law and order situation
and minimize destruction of lives and property.
It would also be necessary to have a mechanism for monitoring the situation and
collection of real time intelligence with a view to ensure taking up of effective advance
action to preempt any break of violence in the potentially troubled spots. The likely
troubled spots ( e. g.
Osmania, Kakatia, Krishna Devraya Universities etc.) and the trouble creators in the three
regions must be identified in advance and suitable action plan prepared. In my
discussions with Chief Secretary and DGP, the kind of equipment and weaponry to be
used were also discussed and it was agreed that weaponry used should be such as not to
cause fatal injuries, while at the same time effective enough to bring the agitationists
quickly under control.
In a nutshell it may be concluded that the first couple of months will be critical after the
submission of the Report, as speculative stories will thrive and emotions of people
incited.