Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

KJo · Post by **KJo** » 07 Oct 2013 19:40

UP CM is my FB friend, he being my college batchmate and I notice that all he has to do is post something vague and meaningless and he has 100+ responses "very good bhaiyya", "jai samajbad" etc. Many are Muslims. I wonder what he and daddy are doing for Muslims.

Ashok Sarraff · Post by **Ashok Sarraff** » 07 Oct 2013 20:10

(Cross posting)

I just spoke with an agent from AP (a neutral observer, not a khaki, pink, or lal chaddi wala) and below are his views (TIFWIW):

1. People are fed-up with Congress in both Telangana and Seema, not only because of the bifurcation mess but also because of rising prices and all the scams
2. Telangana people also know that TRS is corrupt to the core, and may throw them away like a paki condom after the bifurcation
3. There are some constituencies in Seema where Congress will win because of local congress leadership irrespective of any other factor
4. People are aware of Jagan's antics and corruption too and they do not trust him at all
5. A new powerful front (non Jagan, non-Congress, non-TDP) in Seema may emerge with time
6. CBN is not all that hated in Telangana because it was he who initially prompted the bifurcation idea
7. Telangana people remember that BJP supports the division
8. TDP is likely to emerge stronger in both Seema and Telangana because of the above. His estimate is that CBN will win 40% of the seats.
9. Modi is highly respected and liked all over AP, and in a direct contest between Modi and Rahul, he is likely to emerge as a clear winner (I guess that's how BJP should frame the next election)
10. CBN+Modi is likely to result in more than 50% seats going in their kitty in both regions
11. Seema agitation will ultimately fizzle-out in a month or so and the division will be firmed-up on the ground. People have already accepted the idea in their mind and are now thinking about the next step.

krishnan · Post by **krishnan** » 07 Oct 2013 20:30

KJoishy wrote:UP CM is my FB friend, he being my college batchmate and I notice that all he has to do is post something vague and meaningless and he has 100+ responses "very good bhaiyya", "jai samajbad" etc. Many are Muslims. I wonder what he and daddy are doing for Muslims.

i bet he doesnt even known how many people follow him....except for few like modi , non even bothers to read those FB posts, they are probably done by one of his assistance

Shanmukh · Post by **Shanmukh** » 08 Oct 2013 05:40

Haryana Congress on the warpath. Only problem is their choice of direction in their warfare. It seems directed inwards.

Stones thrown (by Hooda's supporters?) at Selja. With Rao Birender Singh declaring his intent to quit the party, and Selja and Hooda burning each other's homes down, we are getting a grand stand view of the Congress in election mode.

http://www.rediff.com/news/report/facti ... 131007.htm

muraliravi · Post by **muraliravi** » 08 Oct 2013 17:32

Looks like the congress-bsp alliance is 99% confirmed. So its history redux, a leader from western india will try and take on the jaichands of the ganga valley belt (mayawati, mulayam, nitish, lalu). unfortunately i think jaichands will have the last laugh.

Atri · Post by **Atri** » 08 Oct 2013 18:33

Jaichand was a dharmik who helped defeat ghori in first battle of tarain. These are not jaychands. These are najibkhan rohilla of western up, shuja of awadh, alivardy khan of bihar and EIC of bengal rallying together to resist a dharmik force from settling in delhi. This is the clarion call for jihad aganst the kafirs.

Shanmukh · Post by **Shanmukh** » 08 Oct 2013 20:07

Not sure how much of this is true, but here is an article that seems to suggest that BJP wants Arun Jaitley as CM candidate of Delhi.

http://harishgupta45.blogspot.ca/2013/1 ... la-he.html

If this is indeed true, it is a very good move. Jaitley has the heft to take on Shiela and he is articulate and thorough, so he could lead the BJP to victory. He is also a long time BJP member with roots in Delhi, so he is probably the best compromise candidate between Harshvardhan, V K Malhotra, Vijay Goel, etc.

gunjur · Post by **gunjur** » 08 Oct 2013 21:39

nageshks wrote: Just a minute. I may have made a mistake with Babagouda Patil. Prof. Nanjundaswamy (Head of KRRS) is dead. Not too sure about Babagouda Patil.

The KRRS members of north Karnataka have been very well integrated into the BJP. Don't see why those of south Karnataka cannot be integrated. In any case, there are plenty of socialists in the BJP, even now.

Not sure about the top leadership, but plenty in the ranks. Murugesh Nirani, Govind Karjol, M Srinivas, Shankaralinge Gowda - all come from a socialist background.

Nagesh avre

Today i came across news about babagouda patil on net. He is now in mullayam's party.

http://kannada.oneindia.in/news/new-del ... 78086.html

ಸಮಾಜವಾದಿ ಪಕ್ಷದ ರಾಜ್ಯಾಧ್ಯಕ್ಷರಾಗಿ ಬಾಬೂಗೌಡ ಪಾಟೀಲ್ ಅವರನ್ನು ನೇಮಕ ಮಾಡಲಾಗಿದೆ. ಪಾಟೀಲ್ ವಾಜಪೇಯಿ ಸರ್ಕಾರದ ಅವಧಿಯಲ್ಲಿ ಕೇಂದ್ರ ಸಚಿವರಾಗಿ ಕಾರ್ಯನಿರ್ವಹಿಸಿದ ಅನುಭವ ಹೊಂದಿದ್ದಾರೆ. ಹಾಲಿ ರಾಜ್ಯಾಧ್ಯಕ್ಷ ಶಂಕರ ಬಿದರಿ ಅವರನ್ನು ಪಕ್ಷದ ರಾಷ್ಟ್ರೀಯ ಕಾರ್ಯಕಾರಿಣಿ ಸದಸ್ಯರಾಗಿ ಆಯ್ಕೆ ಮಾಡಲಾಗಿದೆ.

Shankar bidari it seems has moved on national level of samajwadi party. Not sure why bidari went towards samajwadi party. It has next to zero chances of becoming something/anything in karnataka.

And wrt to murugesh nirani, are you sure he has socialist background?? If am not wrong, he is also a sugar baron. His family runs various factories. Recently heard from one guy from bagalkote regarding this. And wrt to govind karjol, wasn't he from erstwhile Janata dal??

muraliravi · Post by **muraliravi** » 08 Oct 2013 22:51

Just a look at what damage a cong-bsp alliance can inflict on BJP:

Here is an old article (jan 2008) from GVL Rao with vote shares in various states. Forget UP, a cong-bsp alliance can send bjp packing nationwide.

http://www.livemint.com/Politics/iAXdGw ... rship.html

Shanmukh · Post by **Shanmukh** » 08 Oct 2013 23:25

Interesting to hear about Babagouda Patil. Had not heard about him in a long while. Anyway, he is less important now. He was important in 1998, because he could bring in the KRRS activists into BJP. Shankar Bidari - he was a hard police officer, was he not? Involved in the Veerappan cases and Rajkumar kidnapping release negotiations, etc?

Gunjur wrote: And wrt to murugesh nirani, are you sure he has socialist background?? If am not wrong, he is also a sugar baron. His family runs various factories. Recently heard from one guy from bagalkote regarding this. And wrt to govind karjol, wasn't he from erstwhile Janata dal??

Murugesh Nirani is also from the erstwhile JD, as is Govind Karjol. I had not heard about Nirani being an industrialist. Anyway, Murugesh Nirani was big in rights for sugarcane farmers movements and was demanding that they all be properly paid, in the late 80s and early 90s.

muraliravi · Post by **muraliravi** » 08 Oct 2013 23:31

My hunch is that (of course based on the 1996 UP assembly election experiment where cong and bsp had an alliance), bsp may get the muslim vote, but cong may not get the dalit vote from bsp..

Any thoughts from the UP experts??

Shanmukh · Post by **Shanmukh** » 08 Oct 2013 23:34

muraliravi wrote:My hunch is that (of course based on the 1996 UP assembly election experiment where cong and bsp had an alliance), bsp may get the muslim vote, but cong may not get the dalit vote from bsp..

Any thoughts from the UP experts??

Actually, it was the other way round, which is why Mayawati swore off alliances. The Congress did benefit from the Dalit vote to get nearly 35 of its members elected, whereas in other times they would have had a hard time getting half that number elected. The BSP's Dalit vote is very transferable. They have a committed vote nationwide, and it travels with the party. Note - not all the BSP votes are predicated on the party ideology. Much of it is actually based on the candidates (and they do put up decent candidates in North India actually). But outside north India, whatever they get is purely based on party ideology.

Actually, if the Congress-JD(U) and BSP team up in Bihar, BJP will find it hard going. Also, in MP and Rajasthan, BJP can be done in by the Congress-BSP alliance. Also in Punjab, Haryana, Delhi and Uttarakhand. Maybe even in Gujarat.

On a side note, I think Mayawati is waiting to see what happens in the coming Assembly elections. If Congress loses all four, she will not ally with the Congress (Mayawati is not going to ally with a loser).

muraliravi · Post by **muraliravi** » 08 Oct 2013 23:50

nageshks wrote:
muraliravi wrote:My hunch is that (of course based on the 1996 UP assembly election experiment where cong and bsp had an alliance), bsp may get the muslim vote, but cong may not get the dalit vote from bsp..

Any thoughts from the UP experts??
Actually, it was the other way round, which is why Mayawati swore off alliances. The Congress did benefit from the Dalit vote to get nearly 35 of its members elected, whereas in other times they would have had a hard time getting half that number elected. The BSP's Dalit vote is very transferable. They have a committed vote nationwide, and it travels with the party. Note - not all the BSP votes are predicated on the party ideology. Much of it is actually based on the candidates (and they do put up decent candidates in North India actually). But outside north India, whatever they get is purely based on party ideology.

Actually, if the Congress-JD(U) and BSP team up in Bihar, BJP will find it hard going. Also, in MP and Rajasthan, BJP can be done in by the Congress-BSP alliance. Also in Punjab, Haryana, Delhi and Uttarakhand. Maybe even in Gujarat.

On a side note, I think Mayawati is waiting to see what happens in the coming Assembly elections. If Congress loses all four, she will not ally with the Congress (Mayawati is not going to ally with a loser).

I think ur right. But I still think she will ally with congress even if they lose the assembly elections (just that she will demand a bigger chunk of the pie).

What really surprises me is that a shrewd politician like Modi agreed to take on this task knowing that cong and bsp will finally ally. Maybe his surveys are telling him of an unimaginable level of upper caste and obc vote in his favor that can just trump the muslim+dalit combo. who knows maybe even dalits will vote for modi.

Shanmukh · Post by **Shanmukh** » 09 Oct 2013 00:07

muraliravi wrote:
I think ur right. But I still think she will ally with congress even if they lose the assembly elections (just that she will demand a bigger chunk of the pie).

I don't think so. There are a whole lot of Congressmen, particularly in Assam, Haryana, and Andhra, who are waiting to see the outcome of the Assembly elections. If the Congress loses all four, they will jump ship and come to terms with the BJP (and some of these leaders are well worth picking, too, from the BJP point of view). In this case, there is no point for Mayawati to ally with an open loser. She will throw them into the dustbin, if they lose all four. If not, there is a very good chance that the Congressmen will see some vitality left in the grand old party and Mayawati will almost certainly ally with the Congress. That is why it is vital for the BJP to win all four, and thus preempt any alliance between the BSP and Congress. There is a suggestion that Arun Jaitley lead the BJP in Delhi against Shiela Dixit. This one, if it materialises, will be a true game changer for the BJP. Arun Jaitley has the credibility and the heft to deal with Shiela. He is also a Delhiite. It is not too much to say that almost everything depends on the Delhi Assembly election results.

muraliravi · Post by **muraliravi** » 09 Oct 2013 01:53

nageshks wrote:
muraliravi wrote:
I think ur right. But I still think she will ally with congress even if they lose the assembly elections (just that she will demand a bigger chunk of the pie).
I don't think so. There are a whole lot of Congressmen, particularly in Assam, Haryana, and Andhra, who are waiting to see the outcome of the Assembly elections. If the Congress loses all four, they will jump ship and come to terms with the BJP (and some of these leaders are well worth picking, too, from the BJP point of view). In this case, there is no point for Mayawati to ally with an open loser. She will throw them into the dustbin, if they lose all four. If not, there is a very good chance that the Congressmen will see some vitality left in the grand old party and Mayawati will almost certainly ally with the Congress. That is why it is vital for the BJP to win all four, and thus preempt any alliance between the BSP and Congress. There is a suggestion that Arun Jaitley lead the BJP in Delhi against Shiela Dixit. This one, if it materialises, will be a true game changer for the BJP. Arun Jaitley has the credibility and the heft to deal with Shiela. He is also a Delhiite. It is not too much to say that almost everything depends on the Delhi Assembly election results.

I doubt he will jump into the battle. Let us see.

anmol · Post by **anmol** » 09 Oct 2013 02:21

muraliravi wrote:Just a look at what damage a cong-bsp alliance can inflict on BJP:

Here is an old article (jan 2008) from GVL Rao with vote shares in various states. Forget UP, a cong-bsp alliance can send bjp packing nationwide.

http://www.livemint.com/Politics/iAXdGw ... rship.html

This is good IMVHO as this would split secular vote bank in UP(between SP and BSP+Cong), it would make Mayawati(Dalit ki beti) a national personality who would overshadow Rahul Baba and finally BSP and SP would be exposed to junta as Cong's B teams.

Rahul M · Post by **Rahul M** » 09 Oct 2013 04:00

FP online voting survey.
http://www.firstpost.com/firstvote/vote ... t%20Bengal

BJP is sweeping WB and kerala with 77% and 67% votes, PMK is sweeping TN with 46%.

Pratyush · Post by **Pratyush** » 09 Oct 2013 07:33

Page not found.

Rahul M · Post by **Rahul M** » 09 Oct 2013 09:10

you have to login and vote first.

Yagnasri · Post by **Yagnasri** » 09 Oct 2013 11:02

CBI case Mayavathi dropped.

RajeshA · Post by **RajeshA** » 09 Oct 2013 18:00

Delhi Elections 2013 & Modi's Aloofness

Till now Narendra Modi has completely kept aloof from Delhi Assembly Elections. There has been no word from him in support for any Delhi leader. Nor has he spoken against Sheila Dixit or Arvind Kejriwal or Aam Aadmi Party. He has made no efforts to search for a suitable CM candidate for Delhi. Basically he has sent out the message Delhi elections do not concern him.

Of course many commentators have been persisting on Modi to appoint some face for BJP in Delhi but he hasn't budged.

So why is that so?

I think it is possible that Narendra Modi does not think it beneficial for BJP to win in Delhi. If BJP wins the most seats in Delhi Assembly in Nov, say around 32-33, then basically BJP can claim a win in all four states. For that BJP does not need to form the government in Delhi.

In fact if BJP forms the government in Delhi, AAP with its foreign backers would be able to position itself in Delhi as the chief opposition or even chief ideological opposition and from there it can grow to a national level. If AAP does not form a government and gets its hands dirty and allow itself to be hit left and right with accusations of graft, the danger for BJP is that AAP can supplant Congress without its baggage of corruption. Do we really want yet another Congress clone supported by foreign interests making an ass of us Indians just as we were able to wake ourselves from the misdeed maya of Congress.

If AAP becomes stronger the Macaulayist Secularist maya would persist and many middle-class Indians would simply shift to AAP from Congress rather than returning home to Bharatiyata.

So it is important that middle class sees AAP making deals with the party they booted out of power - Congress. It is important that AAP gets a taste of power and also gets corrupted by it.

If one wants AAP to sink before it rises, BJP needs to allow it to form the next government in Delhi in coalition with the Congress.

Anyway regardless of how people vote in Delhi elections, they would still vote for Narendra Modi in Lok Sabha elections of 2014! BJP would still be getting 6 or 7 seats in Delhi for Lok Sabha! And that is what matters! Delhi is just a snack, BJP can afford to let go!

If however the BJP wins in Delhi then it should just take over the agenda of Jan Lok Pal and claim they are implementing Anna Hazare's legacy. It would be even more credible if Kiran Bedi and General VK Singh were to join BJP. Then too the party of Aam Aadmi Party would be over!

Shanmukh · Post by **Shanmukh** » 09 Oct 2013 18:15

RajeshA wrote:Delhi Elections 2013 & Modi's Aloofness

Till now Narendra Modi has completely kept aloof from Delhi Assembly Elections. There has been no word from him in support for any Delhi leader. Nor has he spoken against Sheila Dixit or Arvind Kejriwal or Aam Aadmi Party. He has made no efforts to search for a suitable CM candidate for Delhi. Basically he has sent out the message Delhi elections do not concern him.

Of course many commentators have been persisting on Modi to appoint some face for BJP in Delhi but he hasn't budged.

So why is that so?

I think it is possible that Narendra Modi does not think it beneficial for BJP to win in Delhi. If BJP wins the most seats in Delhi Assembly in Nov, say around 32-33, then basically BJP can claim a win in all four states. For that BJP does not need to form the government in Delhi.

In fact if BJP forms the government in Delhi, AAP with its foreign backers would be able to position itself in Delhi as the chief opposition or even chief ideological opposition and from there it can grow to a national level. If AAP does not form a government and gets its hands dirty and allow itself to be hit left and right with accusations of graft, the danger for BJP is that AAP can supplant Congress without its baggage of corruption. Do we really want yet another Congress clone supported by foreign interests making an ass of us Indians just as we were able to wake ourselves from the misdeed maya of Congress.

If AAP becomes stronger the Macaulayist Secularist maya would persist and many middle-class Indians would simply shift to AAP from Congress rather than returning home to Bharatiyata.

So it is important that middle class sees AAP making deals with the party they booted out of power - Congress. It is important that AAP gets a taste of power and also gets corrupted by it.

If one wants AAP to sink before it rises, BJP needs to allow it to form the next government in Delhi in coalition with the Congress.

Anyway regardless of how people vote in Delhi elections, they would still vote for Narendra Modi in Lok Sabha elections of 2014! BJP would still be getting 6 or 7 seats in Delhi for Lok Sabha! And that is what matters! Delhi is just a snack, BJP can afford to let go!

RajeshA-ji,
Very nice to see you back. I am glad you are posting again. I see only one danger in this game plan. A BSP-Congress alliance, in the wake of Congress returning to power in Delhi, might pose a very serious threat to the BJP in the Hindi heartland. A BSP-Congress alliance has the power to upset all BJP calculations. But if Congress is routed in all four states, then the BSP is unlikely to join with the Congress. At least, that is my reading of the situation. This is why Mayawati is playing coy as of now. Would be glad to have some counter points against my theory.

IMO, it is easier to fight the secularists divided, rather than letting them conglomerate.

muraliravi · Post by **muraliravi** » 09 Oct 2013 18:23

nageshks wrote:
RajeshA-ji,
Very nice to see you back. I am glad you are posting again. I see only one danger in this game plan. A BSP-Congress alliance, in the wake of Congress returning to power in Delhi, might pose a very serious threat to the BJP in the Hindi heartland. A BSP-Congress alliance has the power to upset all BJP calculations. But if Congress is routed in all four states, then the BSP is unlikely to join with the Congress. At least, that is my reading of the situation. This is why Mayawati is playing coy as of now. Would be glad to have some counter points against my theory.

IMO, it is easier to fight the secularists divided, rather than letting them conglomerate.

Nagesh ji,

One counterview is that, if the secularists conglomerate, there will be a backlash too (not the hindu backlash), but just the fact that whenever these parties try to make it a straight fight with BJP, BJP ends up winning.

Now i dont have a significant database to back up that claim. But congress does have some supporters who will ditch congress and move to bjp if congress allies with bsp.

Hari Seldon · Post by **Hari Seldon** » 09 Oct 2013 18:24

A BSP-Congress alliance has the power to upset all BJP calculations. But if Congress is routed in all four states, then the BSP is unlikely to join with the Congress. At least, that is my reading of the situation. This is why Mayawati is playing coy as of now. Would be glad to have some counter points against my theory.

nageshks saar, why assume that an INC loss in the state polls automatically spells doom for the BSP-cong alliance? On the contrary, a weakened cong would be precisely what maya will want before sealing the deal. And a desperate cong, after losing the state polls, will happily concede quite a bit, no doubt. Including perhaps, the PM ship itself, who knows?

An OBC consolidation across the Hindi heartland is crucial to prop up the BJP's chances there, in addition to namo's governance mantra, IMHO. If as RajeshA saar says, the mandal era coalition of muslims and yadavs is over and the yadav vote may well be up for grabs (in Bihar certainly, as also in Eastern UP), then we may well see interesting twists and turns in the plot.

RajeshA · Post by **RajeshA** » 09 Oct 2013 18:34

nageshks ji,
thanks.

Congress does not bring any votebank to BSP's kitty. With Thakurs, Jats and non-Yadav OBCs in Hindi heartland tilting to Modi, Congress too has only Muslims, Dalits and Brahmins to depend on. This is the same mix that supports the BSP.

Muslims would vote for any candidate strong enough to defeat a BJP candidate. Congress would not be able to sway that that much. Brahmins themselves may give it all a rethink in UP and turn against BSP especially now as RSS and VHP have made its support of Modi explicit, public and vocal.

Congress candidate in UP would hardly be the stronger candidate considering the anti-incumbency. So Muslims would go either for BSP or SP candidate in UP, regardless of Congress's support. Moreover BSP already knows Congress cannot go with SP after the riots when all are angry with Akhilesh government.

Now it is upto BJP to do Vastraharan of BSP and SP leaving them only in their chaddis - Jatavs for BSP and Yadavs for SP. Thus it would be unclear which of the two provides the stronger candidate against BJP and Muslims in UP may end up doing tactical brilliance.

Shanmukh · Post by **Shanmukh** » 09 Oct 2013 18:48

Hari Seldon wrote: nageshks saar, why assume that an INC loss in the state polls automatically spells doom for the BSP-cong alliance? On the contrary, a weakened cong would be precisely what maya will want before sealing the deal. And a desperate cong, after losing the state polls, will happily concede quite a bit, no doubt. Including perhaps, the PM ship itself, who knows?

If Congress is routed, Mayawati will read the writing on the wall. She is unlikely to try and bail out a very unpopular Congress. No one wants to join a losing side, Hari-ji.

An OBC consolidation across the Hindi heartland is crucial to prop up the BJP's chances there, in addition to namo's governance mantra, IMHO. If as RajeshA saar says, the mandal era coalition of muslims and yadavs is over and the yadav vote may well be up for grabs (in Bihar certainly, as also in Eastern UP), then we may well see interesting twists and turns in the plot.

While this is certainly true, how much of the Yadav vote migrates to BJP remains to be seen.

Shanmukh · Post by **Shanmukh** » 09 Oct 2013 18:55

RajeshA wrote: Congress does not bring any votebank to BSP's kitty.

Absolutely true.

With Thakurs, Jats and non-Yadav OBCs in Hindi heartland tilting to Modi, Congress too has only Muslims, Dalits and Brahmins to depend on. This is the same mix that supports the BSP. Muslims would vote for any candidate strong enough to defeat a BJP candidate. Congress would not be able to sway that that much.

Agreed.

Brahmins themselves may give it all a rethink in UP and turn against BSP especially now as RSS and VHP have made its support of Modi explicit, public and vocal.

Well the Brahmins were a divided lot in UP. They have been tending to support the candidate that would be best for their community. They never really fully in favour of any party, per se. But, as you say, with a full backing from the Sangh and some deft diplomacy, Brahmins would be back with the BJP. Also, the BJP lost the Brahmins only when it abandoned Hindutva. Getting Modi as PM candidate is itself a step towards rectifying that.

Congress candidate in UP would hardly be the stronger candidate considering the anti-incumbency. So Muslims would go either for BSP or SP candidate in UP, regardless of Congress's support. Moreover BSP already knows Congress cannot go with SP after the riots when all are angry with Akhilesh government.

Now it is upto BJP to do Vastraharan of BSP and SP leaving them only in their chaddis - Jatavs for BSP and Yadavs for SP. Thus it would be unclear which of the two provides the stronger candidate against BJP and Muslims in UP may end up doing tactical brilliance.

The only quibble is that, as long as Congress, and BSP, both vying for the same votebank field candidates, they would damage each other to some extent. But, the candidate also counts, and with only one candidate (and thus wooing of only one community in each constituency), I hope your calculations are correct.

Virupaksha · Post by **Virupaksha** » 09 Oct 2013 19:06

BSP will never form a pre-election alliance (okay never say never).

It was a lesson which Mayawati and Kanshi ram learnt through their experiments in the 90s. BSP has a transferable vote bank, no other party has it. Its votebank will vote to anyone Mayawati says, even if he is congress, bjp or anyone - irrespective of the local calculations. Where as no congress/bjp/muslim/yadav guy will vote as their leader says, if it is against their local interests. Whenever BSP aligned with a party, the other guy would win his seat, because of the transfer of the BSP votebank. It doesnt give any benefit to the BSP candidates as the other parties votes are not transferable.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bahujan_Samaj_Party
Note how in the 93,96 it doesnt get a big bounce on the % of votes in seats contested even though it was in alliances,

Code: Select all

[b]Vidhan Sabha Term	UP Elections	Seats Contested	    Seats won	 % of Votes	       % of Votes in seats contested[/b]
12 th Vidhan Sabha         1993	               164                   67	           11.12	              28.52
13 th Vidhan Sabha         1996	               296                   67	           19.64	              27.73
14 th Vidhan Sabha         2002	               401                   98	           23.06	              23.19
15 th Vidhan Sabha         2007	               403                   203	           30.43	              30.43
16 th Vidhan Sabha         2012	               403                   80	           25.95	              25.95

RajeshA · Post by **RajeshA** » 09 Oct 2013 20:13

Virupaksha wrote:It doesnt give any benefit to the BSP candidates as the other parties votes are not transferable.

That's a key point! BSP gets nothing from pre-poll alliances!

muraliravi · Post by **muraliravi** » 09 Oct 2013 20:19

RajeshA wrote:
Virupaksha wrote:It doesnt give any benefit to the BSP candidates as the other parties votes are not transferable.
That's a key point! BSP gets nothing from pre-poll alliances!

The issue is that she may be blackmailed into an alliance in which she may not benefit, but the congress may.

RajeshA · Post by **RajeshA** » 09 Oct 2013 20:19

nageshks wrote:The only quibble is that, as long as Congress, and BSP, both vying for the same votebank field candidates, they would damage each other to some extent. But, the candidate also counts, and with only one candidate (and thus wooing of only one community in each constituency), I hope your calculations are correct.

Consolidation of vote-bank behind a single candidate does count. Only reason for BSP to accept Congress would be so that Congress does not hurt it.

But the fact that Sonia Gandhi and Rahul Gandhi both stand from UP, Rae Bareilly and Amethi, gives both BSP and Samajwadi Party enough leverage with them to get concessions elsewhere.

RajeshA · Post by **RajeshA** » 09 Oct 2013 20:22

muraliravi wrote:The issue is that she may be blackmailed into an alliance in which she may not benefit, but the congress may.

Depends on how the State elections in November go! If Congress loses all the elections, then Mayawati is going to allow herself to be blackmailed! You can't do that much in 2-3 months and basically if Congress does do something against Mayawati in a politically charged atmosphere of elections, then Congress is going to lose Dalit votes all over India and would end up hurting themselves.

Vikas · Post by **Vikas** » 09 Oct 2013 20:50

Congress no doubt will go in alliance in UP, Bihar and TN otherwise they will end up below 75. With whom is the million dollar question but most likely candidate is BSP in UP since SP already is now a sinking ship thanks to Bhaiya ji.

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 09 Oct 2013 20:55

Potential partners for Congress in 2014:

Bihar: Nikamma

UP: Maya Behn

TN: DMK

Vikas · Post by **Vikas** » 09 Oct 2013 21:04

So where will Lalu and Paswan end up ?
Paswan can go back to NDA alliance with some excuse but what will happen to RJD ?
With Lalu gone, will we see his party consigned to dustbin of history. Surely LJP and RJD will fight elections together but will end up in NDA camp
if Cong-JDU alliance matures. Wonder what poor Sharad Yadav will say about such alliance.
Same question for Mamta and Naveen ? Will they end up neither here nor there kind of Trishanku state after polls ?

Atri · Post by **Atri** » 09 Oct 2013 21:26

caste based politics is ending.. Dalit will be last to realize this, but all the lohia-vadi OBC leaders are going to vanish one by one. The effects of Mandal are null and void now. INC played their card..

Modi's elevation is one of the landmark events in history of India. Kudos to sangh for playing it at right moment. This is not about victory in 2014. Even if NDA loses this one, the very basis of caste-politics is severely eroded now, at least in ganga valley. It will take time for these effects to seep in lands to south of narmada. first to fall in line will be MH. this was bound to happen. NM accelerated it tremendously.

Santosh · Post by **Santosh** » 09 Oct 2013 21:38

Folks are spot on with UP prediction. Muslim vote will consolidate with Cong. That's not a factor of anti incumbency, just anti hindutva. And mullayams tactical brilliance has left him in the dirt. So Cong BSP alliance will consolidate DAlit and Muslim votes which is win win for both. That's what BJP should prepare for in UP. They need to go all out for all other votes including Brahmin and Yadav. We will most likely see Hindutva being drummed up in North India very soon. Corruption. And Vikas alone will not see BJP through.

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 09 Oct 2013 21:42

Mandal was needed in the churning after the Emergency and has played out its effect.

All this backward-forward is bokwas as the Chennai Express says.
When foreigners took over they made their erstwhile opponents economically penurious(Gurjara rulers became backward shepards!) and they ended up down the totem pole over centuries.

And WW Hunter with his survey froze the caste structure to the Brutish advantage.

Tons of research by M.N. Srinivas on mobility of castes in India.

Atri · Post by **Atri** » 09 Oct 2013 21:59

ramana wrote:Mandal was needed in the churning after the Emergency and has played out its effect.

why was mandal required after emergency? Please elucidate..

fanne · Post by **fanne** » 09 Oct 2013 22:03

Btw Paswan will never go back to NDA. He has his conviction (fault the guy, but he stands for his prickles). He resigned after 2002 riots from ministry and NDA while Nikamma and BJD and TDP continued!!
Other way to measure his conviction is - he is solidly anti-Hindu.