Terrorist Islamic Republic of Pakistan (TSP): Sep 22, 2011

[Altair]

Further, India should learn to impose some pain on the ISI. The problem is that they know they can do pretty much anything to India, and that there are no consequences: the worst India will do is to dossier-bomb them. There are many ways in which India could possibly impose salutary pain in response; one might well be to arm separatists with weapons with Chinese markings. (That would only be fair: the Chinese have been sending fake drugs to Africa marked 'Made in India').

India should try to make sure that it has a Plan B to increase its relevance in a post-American scenario. As things stand, despite the millions India has invested, Pakistan is running away with the prize.

India should invite Baloch leaders(Both Bugti and Marri) to New Delhi for consultations and send emissaries to meet the Balochis for support. The history is full of lost opportunities between India and Balochistan.
The current situation is favorable to make Pakistan's actions in Balochistan public. It will completely destroy the image of Pakistan army and ISI. I can provide some heart rendering pictures of Baloch people tortured by Pakistani armed forces.

[RajeshA]

And integrating Baluchis,Sindhis,Punjabis is not going to be easy-I mean we can't even handle central India and north east India and we are planning to add the North West to our headaches?

I don't believe anybody on BRF has ever suggested integrating Pakjabis into India. Even Sindhis are not really on the radar for integration!

Baluchistan however should be part of India.

[Altair]

And integrating Baluchis,Sindhis,Punjabis is not going to be easy-I mean we can't even handle central India and north east India and we are planning to add the North West to our headaches?

I don't believe anybody on BRF has ever suggested integrating Pakjabis into India. Even Sindhis are not really on the radar for integration!

Baluchistan however should be part of India.

RajeshA
Balochis would NOT want to be part of India. They want to be an independent nation. They were declared as an Independent nation way back in 1947 until Poaks invaded'em like they invaded Kashmir. Balochis hate Pakistan and Pakistan Army more than even the most hardcore BRFite here. I guarantee it. They are however very forward looking and can see the big picture to let aside differences to achieve the primary goal. They can cause a heck lot of damage to Pakistan than our PM would ever allow even in case of another 26/11. All they need is representation and support in the world stage. An independent Balochistan will be an ally to India and a balance against whatever remains of Pakistan after it is broken. Afghanistan and Balochistan on the West and South and India on the East will stunt Pakistan.
Altair

[Lalmohan]

a friendly and independent baluchistan with indian investment in its oil and gas and port facilities is a welcome development...

[Cosmo_R]

@Altair ^^^

India should invite Baloch leaders(Both Bugti and Marri) to New Delhi for consultations and send emissaries to meet the Balochis for support.

Not as good an idea as it might seem. The Pakjabi generals will return the favor by inviting the Naxals, the Mizos et al. It will turn into a circus and actually erode the Balochi position.

Political and diplomatic support through international fora on a human rights plank and covert funding is best India can do

[Altair]

@Altair ^^^

India should invite Baloch leaders(Both Bugti and Marri) to New Delhi for consultations and send emissaries to meet the Balochis for support.

Not as good an idea as it might seem. The Pakjabi generals will return the favor by inviting the Naxals, the Mizos et al. It will turn into a circus and actually erode the Balochi position.

Political and diplomatic support through international fora on a human rights plank and covert funding is best India can do

Why the dhoti shiver? Kashmir is an integral part of India as deemed by both the houses of our Parliament and yet we allow every two bit buggers from Pakistan and other countries meet the Hurriyat and take a piss in Kashmir.

Let us stop testing Shauryas and Brahmos missiles. Pakistan can also test them and show our place na? This is exactly the predictable desi mentality the Pakistan is exploiting. If Hurriyat leaders can be invited by Pakistan leaders then so can we invite Baloch leaders. We can fund Baloch movement to make a complete mockery of Hurriyat. I can bet Pakistan will cut-off all ties with Hurriyat the day we invite the Balochis to 7 Race course road. They are gonna $hit in their pants. Low cost alternative to bombing them to stone age.

We can turn the tables if there is a political will. I understand the risks the Balochis will be the day we become offficial. They are already being slaughtered on a daily basis. We can show Pakistanis their place.

[CRamS]

CIA created Haqqani network during Soviet occupation: Pak

This is the skeleton in the closet that confronts US. I can imagine a conversation between Mullen & Co and Kiyani & Co. When Mullen says, yes, we did support and sustain the Haqqanis, but that was against the "evil empire". Now, as allies, we need to take these "bad guys" on and destroy them just as we both as allies have annhilated Al Queda, our former partners in bed.

To which Kiyani will say, not so fast. You used the Haqqnis to end the "oppression" of the "evil empire". Likewise, we need the Haqqanis and pigLeTs to end the "oppression" of the Kashmiris from the yoke of Indian "occupation". And Kiyani armed with a litany of lies and half-truths will cite 7*10^10 "Hindu troops", "women raped", "children killed" in Kashmir, you name it to demonize India, and Kiyani will further cite "freedom house", state dept, red cross (all white-run organizations) to make his case. To which Mullen will nod his head in understanding if not total approval. Where does he have the wherewithal or even inclination or intellectual patience to counter these lies. Thats not his job anyway, his job is to obliterate the "bad guys" and then annunce that to Fox & Frieds or other shows on US TV.

Kiyani will further talk about Gujarat, and he will cite Inda's own "human rights" organzation reports. He might even cite Madam and MMSJi. Basically, Kiyani will paint a picture of how TSP is sweltering under the threat of India's "oppressive" domination of the region and why he needs Haqqanis and pigLeTs now just as the US needed them to defeat the "evil empire". To Mullen & a significant section of white ruling elite in DC, for whom India figures in their consciousness as much as Somalia does, these arguments are quite persuasive IMO, and hence the dance.

I wonder if it would be a good idea for Indian PM, and Indian babus to give a dressing down to DC crowd on India's version of TSP perfidy instead of this useless bilateral "piss process" with TSP. But then again, that requires a leadership in Delhi who can articlaute such a pro-India stance and drill home the ugly truth about TSP. Instead, it all gets enmeshed in domestic politics (Muslim vote-bank politics), the get Modi campaign, "saffron terror" etc.

[gakakkad]

Not as good an idea as it might seem. The Pakjabi generals will return the favor by inviting the Naxals, the Mizos et al. It will turn into a circus and actually erode the Balochi position.

Political and diplomatic support through international fora on a human rights plank and covert funding is best India can do

Paki jernails are absolutely nobody in international politics...

We can get away slaughtering all the naxal terrorist we want to and no one would say a thing..

But naxals are evidently creation of left winged extremist politicians so they survive.

[CRamS]

Why the dhoti shiver? Kashmir is an integral part of India as deemed by both the houses of our Parliament and yet we allow every two bit buggers from Pakistan and other countries meet the Hurriyat and take a piss in Kashmir.

Let us stop testing Shauryas and Brahmos missiles. Pakistan can also test them and show our place na? This is exactly the predictable desi mentality the Pakistan is exploiting. If Hurriyat leaders can be invited by Pakistan leaders then so can we invite Baloch leaders. We can fund Baloch movement to make a complete mockery of Hurriyat. I can bet Pakistan will cut-off all ties with Hurriyat the day we invite the Balochis to 7 Race course road. They are gonna $hit in their pants. Low cost alternative to bombing them to stone age.

We can turn the tables if there is a political will. I understand the risks the Balochis will be the day we become offficial. They are already being slaughtered on a daily basis. We can show Pakistanis their place.

The dhoti shiver is because India has been bludgeoned into defensive submission under the onsluaght of TSP terror, deft diplomatic maneuvering, internal domestic polictis, and "great power" delusion. Show me, except for the shooting down of the Atlantis, has India landed in counter punch to TSP's provocations in the last decade or so?

Coming to the substance of your suggestion, yes, its a good idea. But think this through. TSP will go bersek. For a start, they will cry from their roof tops about Indian "meddling" in their internal affairs. They will dimiss out of hand any comparison between Kashmir and Baluchistan. They will cite UN resolutions, and say that Kashmir is an "international dispute". Furthermore, with India doing nothing except building roads and bridges and hospitals in Afgansithan, and yet is at the receiving end of US's wrath, drawing an equivalence between TSP's malafide intentions in Afganisthan with India's benign motives, you think US will sit by quietly as TSP deafenignly roars (along with terrorist atacks and cross LOC shelling for sure) to such an aggressive move by India?

Sorry, call me what you want, but India has simply nor shown itself to be capable of mouting any counter attack to TSP's relentless machinations. The only thing thwarting TSP realizing its full set of dreams is the system intertia they confront owing to India's massive size compared with theirs.

[kasthuri]

Pak officials deny reports on Hina Rabbani Khar being called back from US: Sources

Sources have told NDTV that tense back-channel negotiations are on between Islamabad and Washington to defuse the latest crisis.

Barking sam seldom bite!

[Altair]

Coming to the substance of your suggestion, yes, its a good idea. But think this through. TSP will go bersek. For a start, they will cry from their roof tops about Indian "meddling" in their internal affairs. They will dimiss out of hand any comparison between Kashmir and Baluchistan. They will cite UN resolutions, and say that Kashmir is an "international dispute". Furthermore, with India doing nothing except building roads and bridges and hospitals in Afgansithan, and yet is at the receiving end of US's wrath, drawing an equivalence between TSP's malafide intentions in Afganisthan with India's benign motives, you think US will sit by quietly as TSP deafenignly roars (along with terrorist atacks and cross LOC shelling for sure) to such an aggressive move by India?

Sorry, call me what you want, but India has simply nor shown itself to be capable of mouting any counter attack to TSP's relentless machinations. The only thing thwarting TSP realizing its full set of dreams is the system intertia they confront owing to India's massive size compared with theirs.

I know this response would come. Balochistan was declared an independent country and it was printed in news papers as one. It was later occupied militarily by Pakistan. These are facts. We know that Kashmir was not that case. Still we manage to loose one third of Kashmir to these animals. I do not give a prick what US thinks or does. For all we know US wouldnt mind Balochistan kicking Iran and Pakistan in the butt and forming a balance in the region. Now you think this one over. An independent Balochistan causing pain to Pakistan and Iran simultaneously and still be democratic is a garden of Eden for US. They can declare victory for what its worth. If they take credit for our pains,so be it.

Now coming to Pakistan, they will almost certainly attack India. Now who was the Gentleman who said that Pakistan WILL attack India when its population crosses the threshold where it cannot feed its people? Pakistan's population is not going to reduce anytime soon and neither are its nuke bums. So, Its either today or 10 years from now, Pakistan will have no choice but to wage war against India and India will have no choice but to defend. We may be powerful then but Balochistan may not survive.

[harbans]

Crams Ji, you are right and so are many posters here on the dot, nothing realistic can really happen. US is smarting for a solution. But there is no quick one. Pakistan in it's current form will always come what may wean to the K word. Terror networks can never be given up by Poakroaches even if daisy cutters hit all over Slumabad. Paki's will always come back to India/ Kashmir. The mistake US made is a simple one, thinking that if the Paki's have a problem in the West, they'll neglect thinking of the East. Khan didn't realize where the paki's are problems will be East and West, North and South..thats India, Afghan, Xingang, Piracy and Kasabs..Paki stench just goes through and through. So if the US has to really change things vis a vis Pakistan, it has few options and all of them involve India.

1. Force India to give K..but with this regime in India anything goes. However, even if some compromise is worked out, no way Pawks can be made to give up on Jihadi's permanently. They'll generate them in a jiffy once the bargains are done and signed for. MMS can write his memoirs "Cheated". [Khan gives himself 7/10..on this. India gets 1/10]

2. Hang on in Afghanistan and continue the status quo. Won't help as losses will make presence unpopular and withdrawal H n D issues. [Khan score 3/10; India 3/10]

3. Hot pursuit, boots on the ground approach with cruise missile strikes on Paki ISI headquarters. But cannot quit Afghanistan for the next decade for sure. [ Khan score returns (5/10). India 5/10]. H n D may be restored at time of withdrawal.

4. Go all out with daisy cutters and B-52s on to the Pashas and Kiyani's..complete nuclear nanga bhookistan bana do. 7/10 to Khan, but India may suffer as bhooka nanaga Jihadi strides across Wagah crying instead of AoA, allah ke naam de de..WKKs will have a field day and MMS will be smiling with Pranab Da and Digvijay welcoming the thankless hordes. This is complex to score as too many variables exist both for Khan and India.

So US doesn't want too much divergence from India, so 1 may not be a good option. 2 is making lesser sense unless Ombaba wants to be 1 time POTUS. Replay of all the above happens in 2014. 3 and 4 are the only options Khan gets to increase score. Remember Score points == Public ratings. It's not now what Khan wishes..it's events that will propel POTUS to act. I understand now what Krishna said to Arjuna..(you think you are the doer..but truth is I am..or something to that effect).

Just my rambling thoughts (to borrow the term from an esteemed poster here..)

[RajeshA]

And integrating Baluchis,Sindhis,Punjabis is not going to be easy-I mean we can't even handle central India and north east India and we are planning to add the North West to our headaches?

I don't believe anybody on BRF has ever suggested integrating Pakjabis into India. Even Sindhis are not really on the radar for integration!

Baluchistan however should be part of India.

RajeshA
Balochis would NOT want to be part of India. They want to be an independent nation. They were declared as an Independent nation way back in 1947 until Poaks invaded'em like they invaded Kashmir. Balochis hate Pakistan and Pakistan Army more than even the most hardcore BRFite here. I guarantee it. They are however very forward looking and can see the big picture to let aside differences to achieve the primary goal. They can cause a heck lot of damage to Pakistan than our PM would ever allow even in case of another 26/11. All they need is representation and support in the world stage. An independent Balochistan will be an ally to India and a balance against whatever remains of Pakistan after it is broken. Afghanistan and Balochistan on the West and South and India on the East will stunt Pakistan.
Altair

The Baloch want Independence FROM Pakistan, because their accession was not voluntary, it was forced upon them. They want independence because of the way Pakistanis have exploited their lands and treated the Baloch. That is their attitude to Pakistan. It doesn't mean they would necessarily reject an offer of accession to India.

India is their only guarantee that they would not be under constant attacks by Pakjabis, Pushtunistanis, Iranians, or manipulation by big powers. India is their only guarantee, that they would not become a battlefield for other powers. India is their only guarantee for democracy, so that the Sardars do not turn the country into some feudal federation.

Baluchistan is far too strategically located for other powers not to try mischief there.

So whatever terms of accession would be agreed upon between Union of India and Baluchistan, they will be upheld.

[Altair]

India is their only guarantee that they would not be under constant attacks by Pakjabis, Pushtunistanis, Iranians, or manipulation by big powers. India is their only guarantee, that they would not become a battlefield for other powers. India is their only guarantee for democracy, so that the Sardars do not turn the country into some feudal federation.
Baluchistan is far too strategically located for other powers not to try mischief there.

True words spoken. If India wants a payback to what Pakistan has been doing for the last 20 years, Balochistan is our chance. If a 2 bit rogue failed state can dream of Kashmir and do what they have been doing in Kashmir since inception, I am sure it is not beyond India's capability to support and fund Baloch movement. We are offering moral and diplomatic support onlee. Arms and other fancy items can be brought in the same way some of African conflict zones get weapons. We provide media coverage and host conferences in European capitals. We will completely stranglehold the Pakistan till it breaks apart.
Balochistan as an independent state of India would be a nightmare for Pakistan. It would not bring back all those souls who perished because of Pakistan but it would provide solace to many who are suffering now.

[Raja Ram]

The evolving situation in Pakistan is definitely filled with opportunities. To those who are ready to recognize them and sieze them.

What is interesting to watch, gentle rakshaks, is the careful positioning of Kayani and his extreme caution in taking his corps commanders into confidence. Gone are the days of the COAS commanding absolute loyalty. That probably went out with Pervez. Now the situation is very different on the ground.

A couple of years ago, your self appointed rambler, no great strategist by any stretch of imagination had pointed out that the Pakistani Army ethos of allegiance to the chain of command is slowly breaking. Kayani is aware of this.

Notwithstanding the GOTUS 's posturing, the fact remains that the ability of the US to open a front in Pakistan is limited. They can continue or increase the intensity of the predator attacks and missile attacks. There options are limited in terms of grounded troops inside Pakistan.

The other benefactor, the Saudis, are also caught in a cleft stick. The uprising that is seen in other Arab states has them on a nervous alert. They cannot afford adventures in Pakistan or provide endless lifelines to this artificial entity of decreasing utility to them.

That leaves us with the Chinese. They would not like to see a break up of Pakistan, but they too are not willing to step up and fill the void that will be created by the Saudi step back and the USG's constraints. Much as they would like to have Pakistan armed and propped up against India, that is a tough task for them to do it all alone.

Hence the Chinese mixed signals that is so typical of them. Fire and brimstone against Indian Navy in Vietnam and South China Sea, but doing the usual symbolic gestures of meeting Indian Youth delegation and showing an increased willingness to engage India.

The GOI, if at all it wakes up from its infightings and slumber, can seek to influence the prevailing conditions. Not by doing anything. But by simply refraining to do anything that can be a lifeline to Government of Pakistan. What is expected is not to believe in the twin myths that will be the subject of a propaganda offensive that will be launched with renewed vigour.

It is easy to believe that GOI has no options here. They do have. They do not have the willingness to use the capabilities that are there. One thing is to get frustrated about it. We cannot do anything about it and that is a fact. We have a government that is elected by us and most Indians support this government and their stance with regard to Pakistan.

What we can bank upon is the innate lack of ability to do anything by our present GOI. Even with their best efforts, this entity called Pakistan is hurtling towards a break up. Nothing that the USG or GOI can do can save them now. Many commentators and indeed some experts here in this forum have always maintained that Pakistan, despite being a near failed state, will never wither away, because there is India as a bogey to always keep it together and the three powers are there to support it - each for their own reasons.

Well that is about to change. India is not likely to be seen as a bogeyman, because all we do is to send faulty dossiers or do escort service to pakistani terrorists. The three supporters are seeing diminishing marginal utility of Pakistan. All three benefactors have only now a minimum common programme for maintaining this entity and that is to keep India down. Well, that is changing too. There will be a point in time when it is better to buy peace with India and get more benefits than try to keep up with the increasingly costly option of keeping India in check through this high cost low utility entity called Pakistan.

Internally, keeping Pakistan going is going to be a lot tougher without the external oxygen and the Indian bogey for the ruling elite. They may rather want to try out a newer model of keeping their interests afloat by coming up with a kind of loose federation of a Republic and carve out regions where they can keep a semblance of power. But that will set into motion a process that will be irreversible and lead to the emergence of new nation states in the territory that goes by the name of Pakistan today.

Just a ramble as usual. Take it for what it is worth, gentle rakshaks!

[SSridhar]

The Pakistani calculus is based on the following:

• The nukes will make the US hesitate to take strong actions against Pakistan
• The Chinese are on their side and can be expected to handle political fallouts on Pakistan's behalf
• The US always comes around after some hot air initially
• The US always needs Pakistan more than the other way around
• The dire economic situation of the US does not permit it to be adventurous and open one more front and that too against Pakistan
• The upcoming PoTUS elections would ensure that the uS actions would be muted after some time
• With the drawdown timetable for the US troops, the Taliban will be increasingly ascendant and the Afghan National Army is no match
• The US has to depend upon the ISI to bring the Taliban around for negotiations and without the Taliban there can be no Afghan peace and the US is aware of that
• The current UPA dispensation in India would not do anything to complicate life for Pakistan should the US-Pak situation deteriorate further
• The Chinese are on their side militarily too and the US and India would be deterred by the presence of the PLA in Pakistan
• The ummah would always intervene on its behalf

[Raja Ram]

harbans,
just saw your post! the more the rambles the better it is!!

[negi]

Sir I like it when you say gentle rakshaks.

[Rangudu]

My 2 paisa contribution.

* There's a profound sense of disarray and anger within the US uniformed cadre that their military and civilian bosses had not paid heed to TSPA/ISI's perfidy until now, but the feeling is that unless the withdrawal plan is reversed, military pressure on TSP cannot be effective

* This whole crisis has (likely permanently) discredited and disillusioned an entire generation of TSPA apologists in the CIA, DOD, State Dept and in all the DC think-tanks. Even liberal types are now openly saying TSP is North Korea west. This will have immense long-term consequences that cannot be ignored.

* In the short-term we can expect that the US will come to some sort of modus vivendi with TSPA, but we can expect TSPA to not stick to any of its promises even in the near-term

* If the US indeed withdraws in 2014, expect a barrage of punitive measures against TSP to coincide with the withdrawal.

[harbans]

RajaRam ji, excellent 'ramble' as usual..(sensed that a ramble from you was due anytime )

However like Rangudu ji and you say, i doubt if things are going to happen with 3.5 pushing things. Events are pushing 3.5, not the other way. US will act because there is no other choice. It will frown, fret and fart..but it will react. They will hot pursuit reluctantly, maybe bomb ISI HQ reluctantly, maybe do XYZ or not do XYZ as a reaction and reluctant imperative of the event. The Pawki biatch has dug it's front and rear paws so deep in the mess with hind legs spread wide apart and it's pathetic howls are starting to lead to events that require the bigger dogs in the field taking some missiles out of their silo's at least as standby..further events will possibly show the missiles also being put into use. Many variations and discussions have been on, particularly on the L n M dhaga. But if we see now, what took years to unfold, now unfolds in months..now the pace is set to increase. Every single event will be a catalyst.

[shiv]

* This whole crisis has (likely permanently) discredited and disillusioned an entire generation of TSPA apologists in the CIA, DOD, State Dept and in all the DC think-tanks. Even liberal types are now openly saying TSP is North Korea west. This will have immense long-term consequences that cannot be ignored.

Clearly the US did not trust India's word against Pakistan despite decades of Indian complaints. I had dug up and posted, in another thread news reports from the 1950s an 1960s (and right up to 2010) where India had protested to the US that its arms sales to Pakistan would be used against India. That was the time when the US chose to believe the likes of Suhrawardy who were saying that India is closet communist and Pakistan is freedom and democracy.

To me this is an interesting commentary on civilizational memories that are retained for a long time. Fundamentally the Indian word on Pakistan has not been trusted. Chances are that a similar attitude will prevail in the US for decades to come. The US had to personally take a square rod that had been freshly pulled out by Pakis from Indian backsides and had the Pakis shove it up US backside and now the US feels they have a had a pristine fresh rod stuck up their backsides. "Hey presto! This feels like fresh Pakistan! Our ally"

In this connection I fully support the action of SM Krishna - otherwise a doddering old fuddy duddy, in his action of rubbing the fact of Pakistan's perfidy in by saying 'We told you so". Luckily the stars were on India's side and Krishna did not mistakenly say "Columbia's perfidy against Germany" while speaking of India's experience with Pakis. It is necessary to remind the Americans that these dirty old heathen communist sympathizers of india have been saying what the US is finding out for decades. Ho hum No surprise. Why should American chaddis get into a twist now? It's as if Americans have just discovered that the moon is not really made of cheese.

Oh of course of course I might get treated to a lecture about realpolitik and international relations, American self interest and blah blah blah. But the fact is that the Americans might just possibly be having a "Wake up and smell the coffee moment", I would like to greet America and say "Good morning America. Taste the coffee . It tastes like crap. You have helped Pakistan brew it for 6 decades". Chances are the US will roll over and go back to sleep after throwing some more dollars at the problem. But I must say I am savoring the moment even if it lasts for no more than a day or two.

[ldev]

"War by a thousand cuts" - that is what Pakistan did to India from 1989 onwards in Jammu and Kashmir. And that is what the US is now being subjected to in Afghanistan.

[vishvak]

"War by a thousand cuts" - that is what Pakistan did to India from 1989 onwards in Jammu and Kashmir. And that is what the US is now being subjected to in Afghanistan.

Started in China too. pakis are ignorantly exporting little paki specialties like strain of polio, unrest in border districts, etc. It seems that wise Chinese have taken these paki imports for granted already.

[dada]

What is the Probability of Success if we play the following Cards ?
1. Balochi 2. Sindhi 3.Mohajir
I think,they are in the descending order as given above.Leave the remaining pakis cook in their own self made biryanis.But none deserves /should be integrated back into the Indian fold. SAARC fold is OK however.

[shiv]

Rudradev that was a good pair of posts that you made earlier on.

There can be no "solution" to the Pakistan problem without Indian involvement. India is "up to here" with Pakistan. Pakistan's survival as a separate nation state required that its military had to be bolstered by foreign aid. Pakistan needed powerful diplomatic support in world bodies like the US or organ-rise-ation of Islamic c*untries and economic suport. This is what kept Pakistan alive for 6 decades and now Pakistan is pissing off its mentors. Pissing off your mentors is OK if you can stand on your own feet.

The US, I repeat yet again, has been phenomenally stupid. they have played the "support a sympathetic military/elite" game. Pakistanis are dead right in saying that Pakistan is not a banana republic - but I think the US really felt that the turd world in general consisted of banana republics to be played with. There is a mildly racist attitude here but too many rah rah specialists prevent an accurate characterization of US attitudes to turd world nations. You see, anyone who is in the business of studying development and human populations would be able to see that Pakistan was continuously sinking. It's not as though the world was not bothered. After all the 50s and 60s were a time when green revolutions were being set in motion in the turd world and smallpox was being systematically eradicated. That included Pakistan as well. So there were plenty of people studying human development and conducting censuses all over the world. But Pakis were lying and the US, its prime sponsor, was happy with those lies as long as the elite helped the US. This really makes me wonder about the pathetic level of scholarship in the US when it came to humanities, sociology and political science. Of course 60s science was faulty by modern standards. The US really did see itself as the center of the universe even when it was nowhere near total domination, which is a mistake. To me it appears that the British empire lasted much longer and covered a far larger area of the world than what the US has managed.

In the US scheme of things - India rapidly dropped out of its sights giving place to Pakistan. I predict that India is set to make a comeback bigger than current US "thinkers" (such as there are) might imagine. Not necessarily subservient to petty US interests by a US that is rich and powerful but consistently led by small men with small minds and small town man's knowledge of the world. Ultimately india will have to be engaged by the US if the US is interested in solving any of its Pakistan problems. And please archive this post and drag me over coals if I am wrong. It will not be on US terms. The US has opposed Indian terms all these years. that was necessary to keep Pakistan alive. That policy has failed. Opposing Indian terms is a game that is rapidly becoming history.

[Agnimitra]

Nothing marks the decline of the US so much as Paki impertinence towards a former patron. The US now tries in vain to "snub" a shameless entity, and then has to crawl back for mediation via Auntie. What a fall, tsk tsk.
MKB:
Pakistan rejects US warnings

The United States-Pakistan tensions are gradually assuming a crisis character and unless there is a political initiative to roll them back, things might snowball. President Barack Obama received bad advice to snub the Pakistani request for a meeting with PM Yousuf Gilani in New York. A meeting would have done no harm to US interests. YG is now spearheading Pakistani ‘resistance’ by forging national consensus among Pakistani political parties, which would leave the US no option but to negotiate with the Pakistani military leadership.

On the other hand, the special corps commanders meeting at Rawalpindi on Sunday apparently took a stance against conducting any military operations against the Haqqani group. Armed with this ‘mandate’, army chief Gen Parvez Kayani left for London Sunday to attend a conference. The British are certain to avail of Kayani’s presence in London to do some mediation between the US and Pakistan.

Interestingly, ISI is taking an open stance that it does keep contact with the Haqqanis, and ‘So what?‘ The hint is that Pakistan also has a lot of dope on the US’s dealings with the Haqqanis for political accommodation despite its propaganda. The two sides are dancing around the core issue: US wants Pakistan to step aside so that it can deal directly with Pakistan’s ’strategic assets’, whereas Pakistan insists on a key role in the making of any Afghan settlement.

Pakistani intelligence seems to rate the probability of a US special forces move in north Waziristan. The US is adopting a differentiated approach toward the militant groups based in Afghanistan in the border regions. The special corps commanders meeting was specifically called to assess the security situation. At the same time, Pakistan estimates that the overall US position is weak in Afghanistan politically and militarily. Pakistani rhetoric has noticeably escalated.

Gilani’s brief visit to Kabul on Thursday reflects an attempt to sound out President Hamid Karzai on resuscitation of the Pak-Afghan peace moves in the post-Burhanuddin Rabbani scenario. At Rabbani’s funeral on Friday, Karzai pointedly refrained from blaming Pakistan.

[gakakkad]

@ hakimullah ..Why not discuss a good strategy for India ?

Aim-- Prevent terror from porkies , and do it in the most cost-effective (and if possible profitable manner) . If possible dismember baloch and sindh with the view of exploiting access to middle east...

Background..

--Direct military confrontation is not fruitful as Porkies can stretch both US and India's military long enough to cause economic takleef...(AND W.R.T India some solid facts provided by A_Gupta about the need to carry on economic growth , Heducation schemes and increasing of health etc in India makes war unreasonable)..

--balochi's are untrained and under-armed and cannot be provided training to feasibly counter the TSPA...

--Paki is in economic shit... situation is far worse than that of USSR in 91...

--The countries that reached such a situation have not lasted long..

--India should not bear the cost of rehab for pak..though lucrative construction contracts are always welcome..

--The US has never had a good will for India (or anyone else for that matter) and will do MBA style cost benefit analysis ..So to get US to help desh , we must create a compelling set of circumstances...

China will interfere if it finds it profitable to .. Though not through military , but surely covertly...

Materials and method for India to act..

????????????


Conclusion


???????




Military stalemate

[A_Gupta]

^^^
1. Keep the powder dry, exploit any fortuitous 1971 like moments if they occur.
2. Try to contain jihadi energy within Pakistan, with minimal spill across Pakistan's borders.
3. Collaborate with India-friendly Central Asian powers (I include Russia here) to contain Pakistan.
4. If US wakes up, great, but don't count on it. Apply whatever pressure feasible on the US to keep US aid to Pakistan as undangerous to India as possible.
5. Perhaps the key to containing China in Pakistan is an India focus on Southeast Asia. IMO, there are lots of potential friends/allies there. With sufficient clout there, India can come to some unwritten agreement with China about the extent of Chinese support for Pakistan.

[Anindya]

Apparently, Kayani has cancelled his trip to the UK - TOI banner.

[Rangudu]

Dr. Shiv,

Apologies for not responding in detail but I disagree with your point that US may fall back asleep after 'smelling the $hitty TSPA coffee'. This is not the US in the 1970s during the end of Vietnam. There is a near daily stream of threats from TSP that these guys have to face and despite the election pressures, the pullout promised is in 2014, not 2012. Except for a couple of top Generals/Admirals (who are retiring), the entire military establishment is not willing to let go of Afghanistan. Plus what is different is that the whole of the intelligence establishment, especially the CIA is in a vengeful mood with TSPA/ISI. Don't get distracted by the throwaway lines on Cashmere or India - these guys know that it is a mere excuse for TSP. Add to all of this the general feeling that under Obama, US prestige and power projection capability is declining and it is up to the permanent establishment to stop this.

It is true that they were taken aback by the brazenness of the recent escalation by Haqqani/ISI, but after the initial panic, there is a sense of steely resolve. WE may not see immediate gratification but 2014 is a long way away and the US has a lot of cards left to play.

[subodh]

India to show interest in investment in Pakistan - bloomberg screen grab



Sept. 26 (PTI) -- India is willing to walk an extra mile
for improving economic relations with Pakistan and "can become a
reliable source" for investment and technology for its
neighbouring country, a Commerce Ministry source said.
The point would be highlighted by Commerce and Industry
Minister Anand Sharma when he meets on Wednesday, an official
delegation from Pakistan, headed by its Commerce Minister
Makhdoom Amin Fahim.
Sharma would tell his counterpart that a rapid growing
Indian economy can provide growth opportunity for all its
neighbours and for them a reliable source for investment,
technology and entreprenerial resources.
The India-Pakistan economic ties, at present, are
restricted to the merchandise trade of just about USD 2.65
billion (2010-11). No investment or technology partnership has
been built between the two neighbours whose relations have been
marred by lack of mutual trust.
New Delhi, according to sources, feel that increase in
trade and economic engagement would contribute towards building
mutual trust.

"Therefore, instead of only competing each other in
textile, rice and other products, India and Pakistan can join
hands to create better export synergies," an official said.
In fact, according to an assessment done by a panel of
economists of the Pakistan Planning Commission, the two
neighbouring countries have the potential to grow their trade to
USD 10 billion. The two ministers may also discuss liberalising
visa regime, which has been hit by terrorism.
Sharma would also assure Fahim that the fear of Pakistani
industry about being swamped by Indian goods is exaggerated,
especially it can stand upto competition from cheap Chinese
imports. PTI TA RR PC PC 09262053


-0- Sep/26/2011 15:31 GMT

How sweet.

[RajeshA]

^^^
1. Keep the powder dry, exploit any fortuitous 1971 like moments if they occur.
2. Try to contain jihadi energy within Pakistan, with minimal spill across Pakistan's borders.
3. Collaborate with India-friendly Central Asian powers (I include Russia here) to contain Pakistan.
4. If US wakes up, great, but don't count on it. Apply whatever pressure feasible on the US to keep US aid to Pakistan as undangerous to India as possible.
5. Perhaps the key to containing China in Pakistan is an India focus on Southeast Asia. IMO, there are lots of potential friends/allies there. With sufficient clout there, India can come to some unwritten agreement with China about the extent of Chinese support for Pakistan.

We are assuming certain thing here as constants.

China can support Pakistan, because it knows whom to support in Pakistan - the TSPA. If TSPA fragments, or Pakistan fragments, would China still be able to support Pakistan, especially as some Pakistanis would in fact be supporting the Uyghurs.

The fact, that China has a partner in Pakistan, is what we should be trying to change. There is a severe need of emasculating Pakistan, financially, so that TSPA itself cannot provide for its soldiers, and there are rival tanzeems willing to pick up the soldiers. The difference with North Korea is that in Pakistan there are other centers of power than just the Army. The Army is only the biggest dog. So Pakistan would never be able to ensure the kind of discipline the North Korean leadership has been able to do. In Pakistan the people say they are first Muslim and only then Pakistani. So their loyalties too do not need to lie with TSPA, but can go to any Tanzeem, even an anti-TSPA Tanzeem.

India should also get into the business of creating Islamic Tanzeems in Pakistan. Any Tanzeem which is outside the power of TSPA but very Islamist can weaken TSPA. The TSPA should be brought under severe pressure internally in Pakistan. Even Al Qaida should be used if necessary to break up TSPA.

Splinter TSPA and China would lose its partner! It becomes a one-front war again!

[RamaY]

1. Do nothing for now. Just strengthen your defenses. Continue current strategy in NA/Afghanistan.
2. Further strengthen internal security apparatus. Overt talibanization of Pakistan is in India's interests in the medium(10+yrs) and long term. Internally it will polarize and weaken WKK/Jihadi sympathizers.
3. Take what is rightfully yours. Keep focus on recapturing PoK. This region cannot support too large population but strategically important. Make a move only when India is 100% sure of victory irrespective of the opponents.
4. Pakistan nukes are only short-term problem of India. India will get attacked either in the first few months of change in control or never. That is the problem of international community.
5. Purchase hindu dominated border regions from Taliban. They will do such deals.
6. Managing paki population or problems is a very very long-term project. First focus on internal elements.

[shiv]

^Rman coming from you it is easier to believe. Justice would be served only if Paki perfidy is rooted out. I think the US owes India here.

[harbans]

India to show interest in investment in Pakistan - bloomberg screen grab

I mentioned before WKKs and Psecs to show the self righteous pompousness to the chagrin and horror of all is likely to happen. Same old story of the sage and scorpion in the river. But in this case it's worse. The sage is leading the nation and trying to pull along the scorpion. That's irresponsible stuff. Same will happen when and If the US starts bombing say the ISI hq..the Psecs will rise up and say this is an affront and violation of our brothers and we stand by them, type of statements. False sense of righteous and piety. I'm more scared of that kind of behavior from the Indian side. very likely with this Psec set up.

[arun]

In the Islamic Republic of Pakistan, Mohammadden clerics of the Barelvi School of the Sunni Mohammaddenism who have been touted in the recent past as being less fanatical than their counterparts of the Deobandi School of the Sunni sect, declare Jihad on the US:

Fatwa for Jihad against America

[Lalmohan]

india offering trade is another element in the "prop up the last civillian strategy" - it actually doesn't cost anything, because the jarnails will never take up the offer

[Dilbu]

If the US starts bombing say the ISI hq..the Psecs will rise up and say this is an affront and violation of our brothers and we stand by them, type of statements.

So true. WKKs will be out is full force on Indian streets protesting against unkil's meddling is South Asian politics. I bet my testimonials on that one.

[arun]

Sadanand Dhume in the Wall Street Journal:

Playing Chicken with Pakistan's Generals : Because the U.S. always blinks first, the Pakistani army thinks it has the upper hand.

An Excerpt:

To the average onlooker, such bluster from a country with an economy about the size of Romania's may be baffling. To understand it one has to see how Pakistan's ruling elites, in particular the generals who call the shots on foreign policy and national security, have come to view their country: as the geopolitical equivalent of a giant bank that's too big to fail.

After all, which other country houses 180 million Muslims, the world's fastest-growing nuclear arsenal, a plethora of jihadist groups in proximity to those weapons, an "all-weather" friendship with China, and a choke-hold on supplies to NATO forces in Afghanistan? By this logic, the U.S., scarred by its experiences in Iraq and Afghanistan, can do little more than mouth disapproval and threaten to cut off aid.

The generals might have a point in seeing the world this way. There's little reason to believe that Washington would have shown such forbearance toward its putative ally—the ISI's relationships with the Haqqanis and the Afghan Taliban have hardly been secret—if Pakistan didn't have nuclear weapons or control major supply lines into Afghanistan. As long as they possess this leverage, they think they can keep up their brinksmanship.

[skumar]

Dr. Shiv,

Apologies for not responding in detail but I disagree with your point that US may fall back asleep after 'smelling the $hitty TSPA coffee'. This is not the US in the 1970s during the end of Vietnam. <snip>

What is also different this time is that there is a distinct anti-war sentiment brewing due to the financial crisis and the US may like to quickly get to the end game here though they may not have not figured out how to get there yet. The US may be more interested in holding on to the killing fields of Iraq and exchanging Libya for Afghanistan.