India / Afghanistan - A New Strategic Relationship

[chaanakya]

India rejects 'exit' strategy for Afghanistan

NEW DELHI: Rejecting an "exit strategy" for Afghanistan, India on Thursday pitched for "closest international support" to prevent decade-long achievements from going "waste" in the war-torn country, where the US plans a total pull-out by this year end in absence of bilateral security agreement (BSA).

Addressing the meeting of International Contact Group (ICG) on Afghanistan-Pakistan, attended by representatives from 53 countries, external affairs minister Salman Khurshid said Afghanistan was at a critical juncture and required steadfast support from the international community.

Reiterating India's support for peace and security in Afghanistan, he said what faces that country was "not anymore intrinsic tribal differences" of ethnic divisions but it was "clearly terrorism and continuability of some armed opposition groups to launch attacks on innocent civilians and legitimate Afghan government".

Asserting that the focus of the international community should be that these "terrorist groups and inspiration and support that they get from outside Afghanistan must be curtailed and contained", Khurshid said there should not be lack of will by international community to tackle the surge of terrorism and it should not be allowed to hide behind alibis and allow the achievements of 12 years to "go to waste" or "slip away".

Nothing justifies terrorism and "closest international cooperation" was required to defeat this scourge, he said and asserted that "India is and will remain committed to Afghanistan for all times to come, even beyond 2014 which is critical year for many ... People may have many strategies but one strategy India rejects is an exit strategy for Afghanistan."

Later, addressing a press conference, US deputy special representative for Afghanistan-Pakistan Laurel Miller said the US has been consistently maintaining that the BSA should be signed promptly and that her government strongly backs the peace process in the war-ravaged country.

"Our position remains that this agreement should be signed promptly," she said.

Laurel said delay in signing of the pact would erode the confidence of the Afghan people as well as create uncertainty among the international community.

"If the agreement is not signed promptly, we, unfortunately, will be in a position in which we will need to plan for the possibility of having no military presence in Afghanistan after 2014. That is not an outcome that we desire.

"We very strongly support peace and reconciliation process in Afghanistan and there is no genuine issue between us in terms of the objective," she said.

The US wanted the BSA to be signed before the end of 2013, but Afghanistan President Hamid Karzai refused to ink the pact asking the US to first stop the searching and bombing of Afghan houses during military operations and support meaningful talks with Taliban led by only Afghan government.

Miller also said that though Afghan president wants the US to launch the peace process and bring the Taliban to the negotiating table, it was not very easy to do so.

"Karzai has demanded in exchange for his signature on the agreement that the US deliver the Taliban to the peace table, that we create public launching of the peace talks between government of Afghanistan and Taliban.

"We would like to see public launching of the peace talks between the two parties. It is not simply the power and capability of the US to make that happen. Moreover, the Taliban publicly oppose the conclusion of the BSA," she said.

The US official said her country has also been asking Pakistan to play a positive role in the peace process.

The chairman of the ICG, Michel Koch, who is German government's special envoy for Afghanistan, said the signing of the US-Afghan BSA will facilitate signing of similar agreement between Afghan government and Nato.

He said ICG members welcomed the progress made by the Afghan Government in preparation for the 2014 elections, including efforts to update voter registration for the next year's presidential and provincial council elections.

"They note the importance of level playing field for all candidates in the presidential election as essential for a fair contest. Contact group members reaffirmed their support for the election as essential for a fair contest," he said.

In the meeting, Afghan government reiterated its assurances as to guaranteeing equal access to state resources.

The contact group members also underscored the importance of a credible and impartial Independent electoral complaints commission and the speedy establishment of its nationwide operational structure.

The members indicated their confidence in the capability of the Afghan security forces to ensure security for the elections.

India was represented by its special envoy for Afghanistan-Pakistan SK Lambah at ICG, which is the main forum for political coordination with respect to the international efforts for peace and stability in Afghanistan and the region.

Significantly, India is also hosting "Heart of Asia" (HoA) meeting on Friday, in which foreign secretary Sujatha Singh will represent the country.

The HoA is part of the "Istanbul Process" which aims at achieving lasting stability and prosperity, anchored in a regional environment that was stable, economically integrated and conducive to shared prosperity.

[ramana]

While the above article is mistitled, it has lot of good info on the pressures on teh US, India, and more signficantly on Karzai.
Its mistitled as who wants to 'exit' Afghanistan? Not India. So why does PTI use that word?

[habal]

An Afghan Sikh expat winging his way back into present Afghanistan. Gives an idea of on-ground situation.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0h11jAyO0zg#t=360

[SSridhar]

India's Jaipur Foot for disabled Afghans - PTI

An Indian organisation, specialising in prosthetic legs, will supply artificial limbs free of cost to 1,000 physically-challenged Afghan nationals in the war-torn country.

Jaipur Foot has signed an agreement with the Afghanistan government to supply 1,000 prosthetic legs to terror attack victims and polio sufferers.

“The Indian organisation has agreed to provide the limbs free of cost,” said Amina Afzali, Minister of Work, Social Affairs, Martyred, and Disabled in Afghanistan.

“Jaipur Foot will manufacture limbs for those who have lost their legs to roadside bombings, terrorist attacks or polio,” Afzali was quoted as saying by Pajhwok Afghan News agency.

Afzali hoped the assistance would further consolidate relations between the two countries.

An agreement to the effect was inked between Afzali and DR Mehta, founder and patron-in-chief of Jaipur Foot.

Indian ambassador to Afghanistan, Amar Sinha, said India was committed to continued assistance to Afghanistan.

India has also planned to train staff at the Disabled Technical Institute in Afghanistan to produce artificial limbs themselves.

Mr. Mehta said his organisation has provided prosthetic limbs to more than a million people across the globe. — PTI

[SSridhar]

Time to refresh Afghan relationship - Anand Arni & Pranay Kotasthane, Takshashila Institution, The Hindu

The geopolitics of Afghanistan, Central and West Asia has witnessed several important changes over the last six months, which makes the time right for a fresh Indian initiative that reaches out to old friends in northern Afghanistan along with anti-Taliban elements in the southern parts.

Two changes have given rise to this opportunity. The first is the changing equations of balance of power in Afghanistan; the second deals with the current status of Taliban’s capacities in southern Afghanistan.

The geopolitical situation on Afghanistan’s borders is rapidly evolving, following Taliban’s takeover of Kunduz. What has really set the alarm bells ringing for Afghanistan’s neighbours is that the Taliban in Kunduz comprised not only Afghans, but an ensemble of Uzbeks, Tajiks, Turkmen, Kyrgyz, Kazakhs, Uighurs, Chechens, Dagestanis along with the Al Qaeda and Pakistanis.

An immediate outcome of this mobilisation has been to bring Russia into the picture at a scale not seen since 2001. The Russian government is concerned that local Daesh (Islamic State) elements, comprising mainly Central Asian jihadis, could, along with the Taliban, further fuel instability. There is also fear that the Daesh could retaliate against Russian targets in response to the happenings in Syria. Moreover, Russia loses 50,000 youth to narcotics, which makes its way through the porous Central Asian border. Consequently, Russia is actively considering the movement of its forces to man the Afghanistan-Tajikistan border.

The U.S., on the other hand, in search of an honourable exit from Afghanistan, has been shaken by the Kunduz incident. The Taliban operation makes it clear that the optimism generated by Pakistan-led round of talks was misplaced. The halt in troop withdrawal until 2017 is meant to buy time until the U.S. finds a better roadmap to peace in Afghanistan. While the U.S. and China still continue to place their bets on Pakistan-backed efforts, there is a growing realisation that the price Pakistan demands will never be acceptable to large sections of Afghans. Nevertheless, the U.S. is said to be examining various other possibilities for securing peace.

Tehran’s concerns

A resurgent Iran is also an important factor to reckon with. Tehran’s concerns are threefold. One, it is worried that instability in Afghanistan could give a boost to the Daesh. Second, an unstable Afghanistan will also lead to an increase in the illicit drug trade on Iran’s eastern border. Third, Iran is also worried that instability could lead to an influx of refugees. All these issues have motivated Iran to provide sanctuary to a few important segments of the Taliban. One such group is led by Mullah Zakir,{Mullah Zakir, aka Abdul Qayum Zakir, was already aligned with Iran and his expulsion from the Quetta Shura by the ISI-appointed Mullah Mansour has only pushed him further into Iranain hands. Mullah Zakir, a former Guantanamo Bay detainee, was Taliban’s military commander and is opposed to any talks. He was handpicked by Mullah Omar as the replacement after Abdul Ghani Baradar was arrested by the ISI in c. 2010} hitherto the Taliban military commander inside Afghanistan but who has since broken away after Mullah Akhtar Mansour was anointed the new Taliban chief.

Along with these geopolitical movements in the aftermath of the Kunduz attacks, the second important change has been the inability of the Taliban to regain control of major cities in its traditional stronghold of southern Afghanistan. While Kunduz was meant to legitimise the new Taliban under Mansour’s leadership, its operations in the south give the appearance of not being as robust. In fact, there have been persistent reports of the presence of ‘Punjabi’ advisors {they must be the members of LeT} who, it is speculated, are there to ensure that the Taliban cadres do not splinter on ethnic lines.

An unstated tenet of Afghan history is that the march for control of Kabul and the country is predicated on wresting control of Kandahar, the Taliban’s traditional base. In recent times though, ever since General Abdul Raziq was appointed police chief of the province, the Taliban have not tasted much success in Kandahar. Raziq has singularly been responsible for the relative peace in the province.{That is the problem. Generally, there is a very weak line of succession in the Afghan armed forces and the elimination of a single top guy leads to a collapse} Similarly, Jalalabad remains out of Taliban control. In recent times, Nangarhar province has seen clashes between the Taliban and groups flying the black Daesh flags, perhaps in search of a new identity.

There are also others, who for tribal and other reasons remain opposed to Taliban. These tribal differences will exacerbate in the days to come as Mullah Mansour, a Durrani from the Ishakzai sub-tribe, tries to consolidate his hold over those from Mullah Omar’s Hotak (Ghilzai) sub-tribe.

There is also significant internal Taliban opposition to Mansour in the south. Apart from Mullah Zakir’s opposition, Mansoor Dadullah and his supporters have taken on Mullah Mansour’s commanders in southern Zabul province. {Dadullah did not accept Mansour's elevation and internecine war broke out as soon as Mansour's fraudulent appointment was announced. There are reports that Daullah has pledged his support to IS}Mutasim Agha Jan {Motassim Agha Jan is a son-in-law of Mullah Omar. He was also arrested by the ISI soon after Baradr was arrested but was released in 2011 under intense pressure from the US. Subsequently an attempt to assassinate Motasim happened under ISI directions perhaps. He was shifted to Turkey for treatment and in July 2012, the UN lifted sanctions on him to enable him to take part in peace negotiations} and Tayyab Agha are among some of the other senior Taliban political figures that have distanced themselves from Mansour {In August 2015, Tayyab Agha, the head of the Taliban’s political office in Doha resigned saying that he was uninterested in taking sides on the successor to Mullah Omar. He objected to keeping the death a secret for so long and then choosing an Emir on a foreign soil. Some say that Mansour ousted him from his position. Significantly, in mid-May 2015, a Taliban delegation led by Mohammad Tayyab Agha had visited Teheran to discuss about the common emerging threat of the IS in the region}

The geopolitical changes around Afghanistan coupled with the ongoing organisational struggles of the Taliban provide an opportunity for Russia, Iran and India to reassess their roles in Afghanistan. Of course, this will materialise only in co-ordination with the Afghanistan unity government for which it will first need to convince itself that over-reliance on a Pakistan-led solution is a non-starter.

India played a pivotal role in the resistance against the Taliban through the Northern Alliance, two decades earlier. That role was predicated on the existence of facilities and friends in the region. Now, India needs to re-establish contact not just with the old friends in the region but also factions within the Taliban and the anti-Taliban forces in the south, to help Afghanistan gain strategic autonomy. It is also imperative for India that Afghanistan’s south-eastern regions are prevented from exporting terror into India. Unlike the last time, India now has the financial muscle to do a lot more. What it needs is renewed vigour and a fresh initiative on Afghanistan.

[sum]

Unlike the last time, India now has the financial muscle to do a lot more. What it needs is renewed vigour and a fresh initiative on Afghanistan.

Im sure there is no lack on vigour going by the thinking of the men in charge this time around. So, am 400% sure lots of things have already started in that direction

[Agnimitra]

Time to refresh Afghan relationship - Anand Arni & Pranay Kotasthane, Takshashila Institution, The Hindu

An unstated tenet of Afghan history is that the march for control of Kabul and the country is predicated on wresting control of Kandahar, the Taliban’s traditional base. In recent times though, ever since General Abdul Raziq was appointed police chief of the province, the Taliban have not tasted much success in Kandahar. Raziq has singularly been responsible for the relative peace in the province.{That is the problem. Generally, there is a very weak line of succession in the Afghan armed forces and the elimination of a single top guy leads to a collapse}

And Raziq has narrowly escaped assassination attempts multiple times, quite incredibly. One thing he does says is that he has hammered into his whole organization one point - that "the enemy is Punjab"! If that's true, hopefully some sort of institutional memory is building up, so that even if a succesor isn't as 'dabang' as Raziq, at least the general direction and immunity to surrender has been built up.