Russian-Ukrainian War: Combat Tactics & Strategy

[Pratyush]

If the Ukrainians were unable to breach Russian defenses in the Donbass last year. That too following months of preparation.

What makes them think that they will be able to hold on to gains in and around Kursk. When they haven't had the time to dig in.

[srai]

^^^
Answer is simple:
Russians had many months to dig in. Ukraine was trying to fast track Western warfare tactics with new weapons. There were months of public announcements of offensive and too much optimistic expectations.

But in this Kursk incursion, Ukraine managed to keep it a secret. They caught Russian border forces off-guard and quickly broke through using combined arms maneuver tactics. After they broke through the two lines of Russian border defenses, they faced very little resistance and Ukrainians employed armed recon and capture of many settlements. These settlements provide strong defensive positions. Apparently, 1,000 square kilometers have been captured in less than a week.

Based on various analysis, these are the possibilities:

1. Re-gain momentum -> offense is the best defense; divert Russian forces; relieve pressure on eastern fronts; cut-off rear Russian supplies/reserves
2. Perception -> in the eyes of the world, Russia seen weaker; West continued military support works (not wasted effort)
3. Negotiating from position of strength -> barter of lands; equals in the eyes of mediators
4. Hope -> moral boost for Ukrainians to continue to resist
5. Diversion for real offensive -> remember Kherson offensive resulted in Kharkiv gains
6. Inflict pain to general public -> Russians feel what Ukrainians have felt last two years - displacement, uncertainty; sow disenchantment for war and ruling government

[srai]

Latest map update


https://www.understandingwar.org/backgr ... st-12-2024

[YashG]

While it maybe correct that Ukraine has sent its best troops to Kursk for PR or whatever but Russian lines are not stabilising after a week of offensive - Unlike Ukraine lines. Inspite of my own understanding that Ukn lines would crumble but they continue to fall slowly while in Kursk Russian lines fell away like pack of cards. It may take months for Russia to clear these lines and It is clear that Russia will have to mobilise and fight for possibly another year or two. They got their asses handed on platter in Kursk.

[Manish_P]

When the EW doesn't work and you have to depend on hard kill...

[sanman]

While it maybe correct that Ukraine has sent its best troops to Kursk for PR or whatever but Russian lines are not stabilising after a week of offensive - Unlike Ukraine lines. Inspite of my own understanding that Ukn lines would crumble but they continue to fall slowly while in Kursk Russian lines fell away like pack of cards. It may take months for Russia to clear these lines and It is clear that Russia will have to mobilise and fight for possibly another year or two. They got their asses handed on platter in Kursk.

Russia should promptly withdraw from the Nuclear Test Ban Treaty and conduct a thermonuclear test on its own soil -- in the Kursk region.
Hey, using nukes on your own soil isn't aggression.
It's just a way of ensuring your nuclear arsenal works in case you need it.
If outsiders take any message from it, then that's their own interpretation.

[srai]

Ukraine seems to be expanding both east and west along the border. More than 80+ settlements captured.


https://www.understandingwar.org/backgr ... st-16-2024

[srai]

Ukraine building fortifications in Kursk.

Plus, they are in possession of two Russian defensive lines. Quite well built ones with wooden planks on the walls. Probably repositioning Russian mines, barb wires and dragon teeth facing towards Russia. They are also strategically capturing natural obstacles like rivers for defensive lines.

Sudzha, a fairly big town, has become the new forward launchpad for the Ukrainian forces. They are going after more larger towns along the border region. Even the smaller settlements provide strong defensive positions. Ukraine will be in possession of more than 100 settlements soon enough.



Russians are going to require a substantial force to stop and then dislodge the Ukrainians. It will take quite a long time too.

[sanman]

Ukraine building fortifications in Kursk.

Plus, they are in possession of two Russian defensive lines. Quite well built ones with wooden planks on the walls. Probably repositioning Russian mines, barb wires and dragon teeth facing towards Russia. They are also strategically capturing natural obstacles like rivers for defensive lines.

Sudzha, a fairly big town, has become the new forward launchpad for the Ukrainian forces. They are going after more larger towns along the border region. Even the smaller settlements provide strong defensive positions. Ukraine will be in possession of more than 100 settlements soon enough.

Russians are going to require a substantial force to stop and then dislodge the Ukrainians. It will take quite a long time too.

How can they maintain such a forward presence? Where are their supply lines?

I'm surprised the Russians haven't dislodged them yet.

Anyway, the main Ukrainian lines are collapsing, so I don't think they'll be able to maintain their hold on Kursk for too long.

[Pratyush]

Let's hope that these Ukrainian fortifications are more effective than the fortifications build by Ukrainians in the Donbass over the last 1 year.

[srai]

^^^
Until Ukraine can stop FAB-1500/3000 glide bombs, no static fortifications going to hold.

Between January-August 2024 (8-months), Russia managed to grind out around 1,000 square kilometers with a huge numerical superiority. Plus, most of that period Ukrainian forces suffered shortages in equipment and ammunition.

Whereas Ukraine captured around same area size in Kursk within 2-weeks.

Against overwhelming odds, defense is holding quite well enough. Russians are paying a heavy price for every square kilometer gain. They have had to go through huge numbers of soldiers and equipment. It has left them vulnerable at home as seen by how easily Ukraine was able to capture Russian territory.

[sanman]

^^^
Until Ukraine can stop FAB-1500/3000 glide bombs, no static fortifications going to hold.

Between January-August 2024 (8-months), Russia managed to grind out around 1,000 square kilometers with a huge numerical superiority. Plus, most of that period Ukrainian forces suffered shortages in equipment and ammunition.

Whereas Ukraine captured around same area size in Kursk within 2-weeks.

Against overwhelming odds, defense is holding quite well enough. Russians are paying a heavy price for every square kilometer gain. They have had to go through huge numbers of soldiers and equipment. It has left them vulnerable at home as seen by how easily Ukraine was able to capture Russian territory.

There's no way that the Russian casualties are on the same scale as the Ukrainians casualties, which are literally depleting their ranks.

Various neutral experts are calling Ukraine's Kursk move a serious strategic error:

https://thehill.com/opinion/internation ... gic-error/

[srai]

If the Russians use the same tactics they have in Ukraine, that will mean entire villages and towns will be flattened in their own home soil by themselves

[YashG]

By no means can anyone writeoff the tactical gains Ukraoine has made in Kursk...It gave them a lot for very little. it was absolutely amazing work and shows that russians are still running a suboptimal show as compared to Ukraine.

For sure Ukraine has west's ISR and intelligence assets at disposal but no one is stopping Russia to have them as well.

But this still doesnt change the strategic direction that russia will win in Ukraine and stop them from joining NATO although at a much larger cost. If I was putin besides the humiliation _ i would use this as a reason why Ukraine threatens Russia and use it to bolster russian people's effort in War.

[sanman]

Russians, as per past history, can draw an enemy deeper into their territory - and then swallow them up.

Those Ukrainian forces need supply lines to sustain themselves. How are they going to maintain them?

This is not going to work, and is a foolhardy strategy.

Russians should continue hammering on the main fronts in Donbass.

As Ukraine loses ground there, then their units will either be forced to abandon Kursk or be cut off.

[vera_k]

Same motives as the battle of the bulge. Means NATO members have refused to commit forces, and Ukraine has to try and get the best outcome it can.

Battle of the bulge

[srai]

Ukraine has struck 3 bridges on Seym river to cut off Russian forces along the Kursk border region. Next big thrust in Kursk will be sideways towards the West along the border of the initial breakthrough area.


https://www.wsj.com/world/ukraine-strik ... n-ed88d0e6

[Cyrano]

Ukr is demanding UN to come and occupy the incursion zone in Kursk oblast. Surely they must be winning!

BTW NaMo is visiting Kiev and then Poland very soon. So far he has resisted playing the peacemaker. With Xi AWOL Putin has few leaders of stature to rely on. How ever I'm not sure anything useful will come out of this visit. I think Putin will play a waiting game until the US elections throw up the new POTUS or whatever ensues. elinsky must be shitting bricks. EU as usual will be clueless hoping comeallah to show the way.

[Deans]

Ukraine has struck 3 bridges on Seym river to cut off Russian forces along the Kursk border region. Next big thrust in Kursk will be sideways towards the West along the border of the initial breakthrough area.


https://www.wsj.com/world/ukraine-strik ... n-ed88d0e6

If Ukraine has blown up bridges, its more likely that they are not going to advance past the river.
Russia has more bridging equipment than Ukraine. Soviet military doctrine was based on being able to quickly cross rivers in Europe.

[Deans]

By no means can anyone writeoff the tactical gains Ukraoine has made in Kursk...It gave them a lot for very little. it was absolutely amazing work and shows that russians are still running a suboptimal show as compared to Ukraine.

For sure Ukraine has west's ISR and intelligence assets at disposal but no one is stopping Russia to have them as well.

But this still doesnt change the strategic direction that russia will win in Ukraine and stop them from joining NATO although at a much larger cost. If I was putin besides the humiliation _ i would use this as a reason why Ukraine threatens Russia and use it to bolster russian people's effort in War.

I have a different view. It actually gave Ukraine little (unimportant territory) for a lot (in lives).
Ukraine has used 4 brigades (replacing them partly with their last reserves and partly by thinning out the front in places where
Russia is pressing. Their only advance was on day 1.
Russia has not withdrawn units from any part of the front, except one brigade which was partly in reserve (810 marine).

Ukraine has coverage of the whole front thanks to NATO ISR capability. Its fairly easy for them to spot a thinly held area of the front and send a
mechanized force racing along the main roads to grab territory and bypass defensive points. If Russia had to defend a long front more strongly
it would mean a reduced density of forces in the more important sectors.
Certainly Ukraine had tactical surprise, but that may be because at a strategic level, its was considered a dumb move.

Even with the current incursion, Russia gained more territory than Ukraine with lower losses. The territory Russia took was more important because its Ukraine's last defensive line

[Mukesh.Kumar]

Will echo what Deansji is saying, till the numbers come out, it maybe unwise to comment on this. Long term it maybe difficult to Ukraine to sustain this, but it does give them a small bargaining chip at negotiations. Question is, if this has to be effective, how capable are the Ukranians in being able to expand this front. While it's good to read that they were able to do so with 110 tanks, it is effectively 10% of their strength. How much more can they reinforce without taking away from defensive lines in areas already under attack?


Similar analysis by Gaurav Arya, on the pro's, con's and motivations of UA in invading the Kursk region.

[sanman]

[srai]

Major Gaurav Arya analysis.

…
Ukraine has finally something to negotiate with … they have [Russian] land … you cannot negotiate for land without land
…

[Pratyush]

Do the Ukrainians genuinely have leverage with Kursk?

Even if the Ukrainians say that we have this land we will negotiate it for Donbass. Are the Russians going to be open for that?

The Russians are working as per their plan. That is to take Donbass and potentially 4 additional oblasts plus Odessa. As long as that plan is being realised. Does it really matter, if Ukrainians capture some Russian territory. From which the Russians can push out the Ukrainians as and when they bring in addition forces to get rid of them. How does that land gives leverage to Ukraine.

What it does give the Ukrainians is a short term PR victory. But, with 9 brigades deployed on the Kursk front, they have weakened the Donbass front. Unless they are getting actual forces from NATO. It is the beginning of the end for them.

[srai]

Based on three direction convergence, next objective looks to be Rylsk.


https://www.thestar.com/news/world/euro ... 4.amp.html

Let’s see where it ends up.

[Cyrano]

Taking territory and holding it are very different games.

[chetak]

The Economist is very clear on why Modi is visiting Poland and Ukraine. "Redemption".

[Mukesh.Kumar]

Not bad. Let them think what they want to think. As long as we can keep their attention deflected from us.

[hanumadu]

Looks like Russia is gaining terrority quickly as a result of diversion of troops to Kursk. Indian news channels are covering daily about Ukraine's high casualities in Kursk daily, both in personnel and equipment. It's as if they got a memo for some kind of counter propaganda.

[sanman]

Not bad. Let them think what they want to think. As long as we can keep their attention deflected from us.

I don't know how we'd think their attention is deflected from us - they did Bangla on us, didn't they?

In order to keep their attention better deflected, we need to do things back - things which will create much bigger distractions for them.

[srai]

Expanded map showing how far/close other objectives are in relation to the current positions in Kursk.

• Oboyan -> E105 highway between Kursk and Belgorod
• Lgov -> E38 highway between Kursk and Western regions (near nuclear plant)
• Rylsk -> major town/city far Western Kursk

https://global.espreso.tv/ukraine-war-m ... 8-2024?amp

[sanman]

So my belief is that this Kursk incursion is Washington's stunt -- ie. Washington NeoCons are invading Russia using Ukrainians as puppet henchmen.

Ukrainians are basically hostage to whatever their masters in Washington want. Their troops are stupid enough to drink whatever Kool-Aid that Zelensky and his Washington masters give them.

The Washington NeoCons are mainly focused on the November US elections, which could cause them to lose power.
They are desperate to avoid such an outcome which could leave them heavily exposed, as they have many skeletons in their closet.

All their stunts to continue on after November have all failed.
The assassination attempt on Trump has failed.
Now they're desperately grasping at their remaining levers & trying to use them.
The latest gambit is the biggest one yet: try to pre-empt the elections by trying to provoke WW3 by invading Russia.

In regards to US elections, which always happen in November, there's a well-known phrase called "October Surprise"
It refers to last-minute political stunts which get pulled by contestants to undermine each other.

In this extraordinary election cycle, expect more than one of those -- expect August Surprise, September Surprise, etc in addition to October Surprise.
I think Kursk Invasion was August Surprise.
What will September Surprise, etc be?

[srai]

^^^
Please move that discussion to the Geopolitical thread.

[YashG]

Kursk invasion has now been controlled, with Russia retaking some small villages like Borki.
But Ukraine right now squats over a large russian territory.

What looks realistic is that 1. Russian troop strength is not as high as has been speculated on this forum -including by me. I guessed Ukraine troop strength dwindling to 300K, while russian increasing to 700K. That has not happened. There is likely only a small russian troop supeiriority as of now - given that large parts of the frontline are still holding.

Possibly Ukraine has added to its troop numbers through multiple ways including using prisoners and deploying women in many rear areas freeing up troops for frontline.

- Zelensky possibly forsees a hard deadline to negotiate and therefore went for Kursk but also its PR potential. Maybe it has already been decided between Russia and west over what that timeframe is.
-------

Possibly a lot of noise about russian military resurgence - 1 In terms of troops , 2 Interms of new equipment is not fully true - partly yes.
So going forward, while russian superiority will only come from dwindling Ukrainian resources. It is likely that west will inject more resources in near term - therefore as before limiting factor will be manpower - whatever we guessed in past about Ukraine's defense breaking apart - is not true. It does look like that Ukraine is much more efficient with its resources than Russia.

-------

Kurks invasion was a very efficient military op. It has a high RoI given the investment vs territory gained. Russia has not had this much success at any time.

-------
Pokrovsk front is falling - more quickly than ever before but it is not breaking apart yet. Russia is still 11km away from Pokrovsk. That is easily 2-3 months before Pokrovsk is liberated. It will be a sizable dent but it will have to be paired with breaking up ofother large eastern congregations. That could take a lot more time.

-------

Remains to be seen by when Russia will be able to push back Ukn from Kursk. It will cost Russia a lot more than what it took for Ukraine to gain it.

[Maria]

Could you quantify what it cost for Ukraine to make gains in Kursk? Also, comment on your sources.

Squatting is good - the last time I checked my sources, the UkroNazis were getting swatted left right centre by drones out of the sky. Can the Ukrainians hold the territory till the time ceasefire is announced?

...I have my sincerest doubts.

Also, where are the much vaunted F-16s, have they seen any actions yet over the Ukrainian battlefields of Donbass?

[sanman]

Could you quantify what it cost for Ukraine to make gains in Kursk? Also, comment on your sources.

Cost is too steep - they would have never done this on their own - they were simply prodded into doing it by their masters in Washington who hold their reins.

Squatting is good - the last time I checked my sources, the UkroNazis were getting swatted left right centre by drones out of the sky. Can the Ukrainians hold the territory till the time ceasefire is announced?

...I have my sincerest doubts.

Kursk invasion is just an August version of "October Surprise" (phrase from US politics, referring to last-minute political stunts used by one side against another to affect the November election outcome)

Also, where are the much vaunted F-16s, have they seen any actions yet over the Ukrainian battlefields of Donbass?

F-16s are just for show. These crooked NeoCons are good at starting wars, just not at fighting them or winning them.

They'll do what they did the last time, after their failed invasion of Iraq - just slink away and bide their time until they can come back to power again.
That's because they never face any real accountability for their wrongdoing - so that's what allows them to keep coming back again like a bad rash.
But it's possible that a re-elected Trump may wisen up and recognize the need to prosecute these people before they put him through another round of harassment and persecution like they did from his first term onwards.

[sanman]

Ukrainian F-16s:

https://youtu.be/miRlTzDPxFw?si=OD9zTESOKxSsqZUj


What is that strange Danish pod-with-mount, which allows it to mount something else below?

[srai]

How Ukraine Beat Russia in the Black Sea

[srai]

Regarding F-16s, there are only 10 in the first batch as per reports. As these are new types to the Ukrainian AF, it will take some time (usually few years in most AFs) to attain full operational capability (FOC). Some 80 F-16s have been promised, but keep in mind these will be delivered in batches over few years.

Just be a little patient, you will see them soon enough

[srin]

I'm trying to find a suitable WW2 parallel to the Kursk attack. Is it ...
a) The battle of Kursk (original edition): where Wehrmacht attacked a fortified region, fell into a trap and lost its combat potential and opened itself for counter attack ?
b) The battle of Bulge: the last gasp of a dying army which made the end nearer ?
c) The battles of Rzhev (Rzhev meat grinder): Series of offensives and counter-offensives of Red Army and Wehrmacht that just killed lot of troops for no decisive strategic benefit ?

A big advantage of Russia is its strategic depth which gives it the ability to trade space for time.