Bharat Rakshak

Potential significant development. There are reports that Ukraine- first time in this war - has struck inside Russia. territory (Belgorod ), and what is more, this has been immediately acknowledged by Russian leaders. Belgorod is some 40 kilometres inside Russia.

https://www.reuters.com/world/ukraine-s ... 022-04-01/

If you want to believe your conspiracy theories, this allows Russia to mobilise even greater number of soldiers (apart from calling reserves) because apparently their laws require an attack on Russian soil for that to happen.


Footage of the strike can be seen here

https://www.reddit.com/r/UkraineRussiaR ... ame=iossmf

The initial objective was definitely to take Kiev and they probably thought it would fall easily. Whether that was due to hubris, lack of intelligence or being led astray by powers that be is open to debate. But when they say the Ukranians are well entrenched and taking Kiev would inflict a huge cost, they have now pivoted to tying down Ukranian forces while they mop up down south and east. That would point out to leadership that is willing to change tactics and cares for its men in a Russian sort of way.

yogeshkumar wrote:

Military capability of Russian forces can't be measured by whether Ukrainian population were sympathetic to Russian cause (or lack there of). Yes, Russian leadership assumed that they would find some sympathetic voice in Ukraine once their forces are there, but that speaks to lack of awareness of how people can be fooled by decades of propaganda. Younger generation (one that has been raised by social media) - whether in US, EU, India, Ukraine, Russia etc is very gullible and tend to believe everything they see on TV and SM.

Back to Military, they got the orders to go to Kiev. They did. They camped there for more than a month. If Indian forces reached Islamabad in 24 hrs and camped there for a month.. I wouldn't call it a failure of Indian forces. Can we force Pakistani to like us when we are there? That has more to do with peoples' emotions and that was the misread on Russians' part.
t.

But military planners need to take things into account and plan accordingly which includes ensuring that supply lines are maintained. You got to think of the Russian grunt who is parked 60 km in enemy territory and facing an enemy who is going to fight on his terms. Resupply of weapons / fuel / food are critical.
This also includes anticipating how the enemy with approach combat.
If Indian forces reached Islamabad without a clear tactical and strategic gain and endgame then yes it would be a failure. I am afraid in this case the Russian dash to Kiev and subsequent reconsideration seems to be a dawning realisation that they miscalculated. My opinion and u r free to disagree.
I am not comparing Putin and Biden but asking you to contemplate which system is more likely to reward merit vs sycophancy.

Anyway all from me on this.

Tanaji wrote:The initial objective was definitely to take Kiev and they probably thought it would fall easily. Whether that was due to hubris, lack of intelligence or being led astray by powers that be is open to debate. But when they say the Ukranians are well entrenched and taking Kiev would inflict a huge cost, they have now pivoted to tying down Ukranian forces while they mop up down south and east. That would point out to leadership that is willing to change tactics and cares for its men in a Russian sort of way.

What I am saying sir is that good int and good mil leadership would have considered this and pivoted much more quickly to plan B.
After all it’s not as if Ukr has been on the radar only for the last few months?

Indian Embassy in Brusselabad has asked all students to register with them citing assistance in case of "emergent and exigent"circumstances.
Holland has stop distributing newspapers and magazines all around the Europe.....oil price bite.
Cooking oil,toilet papers and other products rationed.
Full propaganda against Russia. Not a single voice doing balancing act.
UK preferring. Blue eyed refugees. Indians and african (Ukrainian passport holders) openly discriminated.

rsingh wrote:Indian Embassy in Brusselabad has asked all students to register with them citing assistance in case of "emergent and exigent"circumstances.
Holland has stop distributing newspapers and magazines all around the Europe.....oil price bite.
Cooking oil,toilet papers and other products rationed.
Full propaganda against Russia. Not a single voice doing balancing act.
UK preferring. Blue eyed refugees. Indians and african (Ukrainian passport holders) openly discriminated.

Well expecting balance is like believing in unicorns…what did you expect sir?
It’s a given that truth is the first casualty in any narrative and the media, including in India, will only be allowed to write / publish/ televise what the media owners allow which it very much tied to their business interests.

Pratyush wrote:…

If Russia has fought in Mariopol and Irpin. With those cities showing highest civilian casualties. Then it stands to reason that the Russians did not enter Kiev because they wanted to avoid civilian casualties.

…

I’m not a fan of the Russian army is totally wrecked theory: I also stated at the outset of this war that, army disorganisation and strategic errors aside, one can never underestimate the patriotism of the average Russian and their ability to endure.

But that said, it could be the other way round too. That the Russians suffered significant casualties in the vicious urban battles of Mariupol and Irpin and realised that they don’t have the forces to take Kyiv with acceptable attrition.

Overall I think next we shall see Russia focusing on

1. Fortifying adding to eastern territories (Luhansk and Donetsk oblasts)

2. More reliance on long range artillery as they regroup

3. Take Mariupol.

4. Consolidate land bridge to Crimea

5. Set up massive defensive lines in the east as a precursor to a permanent presence cutting Ukraine in half.

IMO the war could now get really bloody.

ks_sachin wrote:

yogeshkumar wrote: And they did stay on those edges of Kiev for more than a month..

What was the objective of this in your opinion?

to keep half of Ukr army tied down at kyiv and kharikiv, so that they cannot assist Ukr army groups in Mariupol and other eastern targets.

A Deshmukh wrote:

ks_sachin wrote: What was the objective of this in your opinion?

to keep half of Ukr army tied down at kyiv and kharikiv, so that they cannot assist Ukr army groups in Mariupol and other eastern targets.

Thanks. A very costly approach in men, materials don’t you think when superior air power and arty and missiles would have degraded that capability significantly. Especially as the Russians would have known UKR points of advance.
But I respect your point of view.

A Deshmukh wrote:

ks_sachin wrote: What was the objective of this in your opinion?

to keep half of Ukr army tied down at kyiv and kharikiv, so that they cannot assist Ukr army groups in Mariupol and other eastern targets.

My information/reading (this is just conjecture on my part) was that “the bulk” of the UA was opposite Luhansk and Donetsk in the Eastern theatre and some facing down south/ Crimea. The Ukrainians themselves miscalculated where the Russian thrust would come from.

While the cities have been fortified heavily, my belief is that the cities themselves were held by a composite mix of reserves, call ups, some SF, and then a healthy proportion of UA. But not sure if that figure was half.

It could be, but I’d love more sources on the the current deployment of the UA.

Wars take time... using daily events to conclude a side is winning or losing is fraught with error. While a single event can change the course of a war, its also an extremely rare event often identified as game changing much later, with hindsight.

From what I've seen as "evidence" posted as images and videos on SM, there are numerous NATO operatives from US, UK, FR involved in combat areas in Ukraine as advisors/experts/SF fighters. During the attempt to evacuate these NATO operatives, 2 helis were shot down near Mariupol leading to over a dozen deaths. Includes a few French DGSE Sr operatives. This is based on uniform patches etc collected from crash sites. Some bodies were recovered as well.
French "Direction des renseignements militaires" head Gen Éric Vidaud was sacked by Macron yesterday. One can look up if similar sackings happened in UK/US.

Todays counter attacks could be a frustrated NATO riposte for such losses since doing anything in Mariupol is now impossible.

https://www.tellerreport.com/news/2022- ... sw77q.html
Foreign Policy: Ukraine is ready for painful concessions, 3/31/2022
The American "Foreign Policy" magazine said that the Ukrainian government and people will make painful concessions, and they realize this for the sake of a ceasefire agreement with Russia, yet there is no guarantee that what they want will be achieved.
The American magazine "Foreign Policy" said that the Ukrainian government and people will make painful concessions and they realize this for the sake of a cease-fire agreement with Russia, yet there is no guarantee that what they want will be achieved.
In recent days, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has taken steps toward peace by declaring his willingness to make several concessions to Russian demands, including commitment to Ukraine's neutrality regarding military alliances, rejecting any nuclear arsenal, and accepting control
Russian influence on the eastern regions of the country, and even indicated a willingness to change the language policies that harmed Russian speakers.
The writer added that these statements gave direct talks held this week in Istanbul some hope for a ceasefire.
Acknowledgment and disappointment
She noted that although Ukrainians consider these concessions inevitable, they are disappointed with the West's failure to provide them with material support, despite repeated calls by Zelensky, and the West's failure to impose a no-fly zone or send ground forces.
Vohra commented that in the midst of a war that threatened Ukraine's existence as a state, it seems that Zelensky and the Ukrainians have finally realized that they will have to abandon their ambition to join the Western Defense Alliance and perhaps erase this ambition from their constitution, adding that the Russians, for their part, began after last Tuesday's negotiations to believe that Their Ukrainian counterparts are no longer interested in being part of NATO, calling the Istanbul talks "meaningful", saying that Russia will "reduce its military activity in Ukraine" and being encouraged by a meeting between Zelensky and his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin sooner than initially expected.
.....
Gautam

I'd think lots of posturing by both sides during these negotiations to buy time. Note that Ukraine is offering this and that, Russians are not making a specific list of demands. Ukrainians hoping for a NATO rescue, Russians expecting to increase military gains.

Pratyush wrote:John,

In a way you are agreeing with what yogesh is saying. You are approaching the matter from the opposite direction.

If Russia has fought in Mariopol and Irpin. With those cities showing highest civilian casualties. Then it stands to reason that the Russians did not enter Kiev because they wanted to avoid civilian casualties.

Remember, that the Russians started this conflict to de nazify Ukraine. With a belief that under 2%of population was holding the rest of the population hostage.

Whether the belief it self was justified or not is open to debate.

Pratyush you need to take Irpin to enter Kyiv, Ukr forces took out the major bridges connecting Irpin to Kyiv (also splitting Irpin in two). As a result Russian forces had to travel thru single choke point which was the only way to enter and they were held back.

If they had broken thru and sieged the capital it would have no doubt turned into another Mariopol, especially with all the armed civilians it could have been even worse.

Somebody has taken over the Ukranian passport printing office and is making a fortune selling Ukranian passports to non Ukranians who are using these passports to enter Western Europe and availing of welfare benefits for Ukranian refugees. Here a group of Pakistani men arrive at Dublin airport claiming to be Ukranians

ldev wrote:Somebody has taken over the Ukranian passport printing office and is making a fortune selling Ukranian passports to non Ukranians who are using these passports to enter Western Europe and availing of welfare benefits for Ukranian refugees. Here a group of Pakistani men arrive at Dublin airport claiming to be Ukranians

Its only a matter of time before ISIS/ Al-Q armed with Stingers and Javelins arrive in Western cities with Ukie passports.

Bunch of pro Russian telegram sources are indicating that Russia is pulling out of Kyiv, north to Belarus, and then back on down to deploy around Kharkiv and Eastern Ukraine.

If true it means that Russia will have moved away from the capital/ heartland and will now be focused on carving territory (along what it has already captured) in the East and South (for now).

As/ when / if it happens Kyiv and the West will probably portray this as a major victory in this war.

Baikul wrote:Bunch of pro Russian telegram sources are indicating that Russia is pulling out of Kyiv, north to Belarus, and then back on down to deploy around Kharkiv and Eastern Ukraine.

If true it means that Russia will have moved away from the capital/ heartland and will now be focused on carving territory (along what it has already captured) in the East and South (for now).

As/ when / if it happens Kyiv and the West will probably portray this as a major victory in this war.

Yes I brought it up problem with pull out is they are dedicating almost no CAS for retreating convoys allowing Ukrainian forces to openly ambush them, literally seeing videos of Ukr chasing Russian convoys and setting up ambushes.

I never seen anything like this tbh it seems like there is complete disconnect between various branches.

Baikul wrote:Bunch of pro Russian telegram sources are indicating that Russia is pulling out of Kyiv, north to Belarus, and then back on down to deploy around Kharkiv and Eastern Ukraine.

If true it means that Russia will have moved away from the capital/ heartland and will now be focused on carving territory (along what it has already captured) in the East and South (for now).

As/ when / if it happens Kyiv and the West will probably portray this as a major victory in this war.

It will be a victory if Russia has to retreat

In the meanwhile the Russians will carve out the entire south east, establish their land corridor and ensure access to Sevastopol. Ukraine will have 4M refugees, MIC destroyed, and no hope of joining Nato…

Russia will be set back by 5 years.

I think the War(not a Special Operation) might be entering its bloodiest phase now. Russia definitely did not expect UKR'S response as well as its own forces inability to subdue the enemy. How the war goes on from here is firmly in Russia and US's hand with UKR being the wild card. Russia's best case here would be to concentrate on the East UKR, consolidate the positions, take it away from UKR, and negotiate for peace. This is also UKR's best case scenario, I think. But even to get to that stage, Russia has to bring in more fire power, take and inflict more casualties. It might take 2 weeks, or two months, but I think this might happen.

In the long run, Russia is screwed. All the territorial gains Russia makes as part of this conflict could be temporary. Once Putin's regime is done(5 years is my estimate) and if Russia is still hamstrung by sanctions, it could trade these places back to UKR to get rid of economic sanctions and re-integrate with Europe(economically). Only permanent thing RU might get out of this war is UKR's pledge to never seek NATO membership.

Atmavik wrote:

Baikul wrote:Bunch of pro Russian telegram sources are indicating that Russia is pulling out of Kyiv, north to Belarus, and then back on down to deploy around Kharkiv and Eastern Ukraine.

If true it means that Russia will have moved away from the capital/ heartland and will now be focused on carving territory (along what it has already captured) in the East and South (for now).

As/ when / if it happens Kyiv and the West will probably portray this as a major victory in this war.

It will be a victory if Russia has to retreat

What is the point in siege of cities if you have to expend a lot of resources to take it? They can turn it into rubble but for what purpose and even if they want to they can use air power. Makes sense that they focus on what is achievable.

East of Dneipr river of Ukraine will be taken over by Rus. What remains of Ukr will be landlocked and perhaps Poland will absorb a piece and Ukraine will be reduced to a non-entity in Europe. Rus will have NATO bang on its border due to the remaining piece of Ukraine, this will again force another tussle. NATO is the entity that is causing world turmoil and its expansion is the root cause.

This was something unexpected in the middle of conflict but unsurprising

https://twitter.com/benlewismedia/statu ... 6766211073

Ukraine spokesperson cannot confirm or deny the attack on Belgorod by Ukrainian helicopters as alleged by Russia.

Does that mean that the UA is acting independently and not informing elenskyy? If it did happen, it is not possible without political oversight.

^ Probably so they don't reveal any details and want to keep Russians guessing but unf the attack was recorded by CCTVs. It's Taking a page from Israeli playbook.

Japan refuses to abandon Sakhalin-2.
https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-paci ... velopment.

Is there any country which did not refuse US yet?

rsingh, Thanks for the on-spot report.

Indian Embassy in Brusselabad has asked all students to register with them citing assistance in case of "emergent and exigent" circumstances.
Holland has stopped distributing newspapers and magazines all around the Europe.....oil price bite.
Cooking oil, toilet papers, and other products rationed.
Full propaganda against Russia. Not a single voice doing balancing act.
UK preferring. Blue-eyed refugees. Indians and Africans (Ukrainian passport holders) openly discriminated.

vinod wrote:

Atmavik wrote:

It will be a victory if Russia has to retreat

What is the point in siege of cities if you have to expend a lot of resources to take it? They can turn it into rubble but for what purpose and even if they want to they can use air power. Makes sense that they focus on what is achievable.

Good point should have thought abt this before laying siege. This confirms that the original plan was to scare Zelensky to surrender and as he stays defiant Russians are moving to plan b.

This should have been the plan all along

Cyrano wrote:This was something unexpected in the middle of conflict but unsurprising

https://twitter.com/benlewismedia/statu ... 6766211073

Arnt they already Christian? Even if orthodox

bala wrote:East of Dneipr river of Ukraine will be taken over by Rus. What remains of Ukr will be landlocked and perhaps Poland will absorb a piece and Ukraine will be reduced to a non-entity in Europe. Rus will have NATO bang on its border due to the remaining piece of Ukraine, this will again force another tussle. NATO is the entity that is causing world turmoil and its expansion is the root cause.

Parts of Western Ukraine were Polish till the end of WWII. This includes Lviv (Lvov/Lemburg being the Polish/German (actually Austrian) names). The entire Polish Ukrainian border was shifted westwards, and Poland was compensated with German lands on its western border. I am sure Poland is not going to mind.
Gautam

Atmavik wrote:

vinod wrote:
What is the point in siege of cities if you have to expend a lot of resources to take it? They can turn it into rubble but for what purpose and even if they want to they can use air power. Makes sense that they focus on what is achievable.

Good point should have thought abt this before laying siege. This confirms that the original plan was to scare Zelensky to surrender and as he stays defiant Russians are moving to plan b.

This should have been the plan all along

I stated earlier if they attacked in East to start out with forces in stationed in Belarus and Crimea to deter Ukrainians from sending reinforcements they could have done this a lot easier. Now they attacking the east in spring the terrain is gonna get even worse to traverse with Russian forces who been fighting/deployed for months (fatigue).

Anyway the Kyiv front failed because:

- I think it is matter of over confidence in the FSB - which had reportedly bribed many high level Ukrainians to help overthrow the gov or assist in invasion. But looks like good chunk either took it and did nothing or where double agents.

- Faulty Intel which predicted Ukr military collapsing and Ukrainians welcoming Russian troops.

- Over estimation of Russian troop preparedness to fight in this many fronts and in proper management of supplies and coordination of logistics.

Still overall confusion over forces by Kyiv looks like Russians didn't intend to pull everyone back (20% is what I am hearing) there were forces that where supposed to dig in and hold back/tie up Ukrainian forces. But looks like somewhere there might have been some miscommunication leading to more retreating or line collapsing due to Ukrainian offensive as result north is collapsing pretty rapidly.

John wrote:^ Probably so they don't reveal any details and want to keep Russians guessing but unf the attack was recorded by CCTVs. It's Taking a page from Israeli playbook.

The Ukrainians would know that they would get caught. This is something else.

Atmavik wrote:

vinod wrote:
What is the point in siege of cities if you have to expend a lot of resources to take it? They can turn it into rubble but for what purpose and even if they want to they can use air power. Makes sense that they focus on what is achievable.

Good point should have thought abt this before laying siege. This confirms that the original plan was to scare Zelensky to surrender and as he stays defiant Russians are moving to plan b.

This should have been the plan all along

Yes, that was Russia hoping for when they raced to Kiev. Force them to come to the table to agree to a peace deal. But they didn't expect a president to sacrifice his country for what ever reason. Remember russians were eager for peace deals in the early days of war. Now, Russians have to do it the hard way. Fight their way to occupy the land they want and destroy rest of the country so that they don't become a threat for a decade or so.

Ukraine has been able to impose a very high cost on Russia at the expense of almost complete ruin of their own country. How that makes sense to Ukranians, I do not understand.

"Oil Prices Are Falling After U.S. Unveils ‘Historic’ Release of Reserves". Oil prices fell sharply Thursday as the Biden administration announced an ‘historic’ release of 1 million barrels of oil per day from the country’s reserves for the next six months.

It this is not capitulation by the US; its domestic Gasoline prices jumped from $3.5/gallon to around $6/gallon. Now Xiden is releasing the reserves to ease the pain. But India gets lectures from US/UK not to buy Rus crude to ease its domestic pain at the petrol pump.

Also Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida's announcement on Thursday that he would not abandon a massive Russian gas project, he would stay in the Sakhalin-2 liquefied natural gas (LNG) project because leaving threatened the economy. Kishida's announcement may also represent a victory for the trade ministry's energy policy over foreign ministry diplomacy, and could soothe investors in Japanese trading houses that own stakes in Sakhalin-2 and other projects in Russia.

Zelensky and Kejriwal are quite similar. Once you realise that everything falls into place. The sense of ambition, the entitlement, the desire to be front and centre at the expense of everything and everyone…. in the end you get the current situation. Banianskys ego and ambition was played upon by the usual suspects and was assured of either military support or convinced that Russia won’t invade. At some point he must have realised that water has gone over his head but he is on a ride that he can’t get off from and his ego won’t let him accept that he has made a terrible mistake. So he has sacrificed Ukraines population at the altar of his ambition…

A saner person would have promised no Nato membership 6 months ago which would have punctured Putins bravado at that point.

Tanaji wrote:Zelensky and Kejriwal are quite similar.

A saner person would have promised no Nato membership 6 months ago which would have punctured Putins bravado at that point.

Zelensky is very similar to Kejri, he had two choices

1. Live under the Russian Thumb and wait out Putin hopeing for another Yeltsin

2. Once he decided to fight then he could not surrender


Zelensky never considered option 1 as the water cutoff to crimea and offensive in Donbas indicate. His country is getting wrecked but he may be hoping for another Marshall plan. Or he is an anarchist like kejri and does not care

Atmavik wrote:

Cyrano wrote:This was something unexpected in the middle of conflict but unsurprising

https://twitter.com/benlewismedia/statu ... 6766211073

Arnt they already Christian? Even if orthodox

My wife is ukr jewish [personally she is atheist] . The American baptists are the hardcore evangelist and want to convert the orthodox to baptist xinty. They are well spread in eastern europe. There is also a huge mormon component. Many Russians/Ukr take that route to come to the US. big communities in sacramento [green card factory using refugee and religious persecution tactics] as well as in salt lake city [Mormons]

Atmavik wrote:

Cyrano wrote:This was something unexpected in the middle of conflict but unsurprising

https://twitter.com/benlewismedia/statu ... 6766211073

Arnt they already Christian? Even if orthodox

American evangelicals don't consider any sects other than their own to be 'proper' Christians and would gladly pounce on an opportunity to convert even a Catholic for example so Orthodox Christians are fair game to them. Actually American evangelicals are not really about Christianity as such, despite the delusions of the suckers who are part of those groups, most of them are elaborate scams to enrich the higher level preachers/clergy as incomes are completely tax free and it is quite common for the top evangelical personalities to have massive mansions and private jets. They also serve as 'influencers' for politicians, herding their flock towards voting (typically) for conservatives - much like Tariq Jameel and other clerics do the bidding of the Paki 'establishment'

^^ yep , our own KA Paul was doing quite well until landed up in Chanchalguda jail. I hear he is back to Massa land these days