Bharat Rakshak

Posted: **16 May 2019 09:57**

ramana wrote:It would be interesting to know which 100 seats Congress is expected to get per the Satta market?

We already completed 6 phases and the 7th phase is hardly Congress friendly area.
Punjab and MP with 13 and 8 respectively.
be generous and let them get half each.
Or take the voteshare % of last assy elections and give them proportionally.

So any takers to tally the 100 for Congress?

One scenario I did before elections started where I could get up to 92 for INC. In this scenario NDA falls short by 20 and takes TRS like parties support to reach magic mark. Some states' Loksabha data was interpolated with the Vidhansabha data of last 1-2 years.

Code: Select all

Assam             3
Bihar             2
Chhattisgarh      8
Gujarat           1
Haryana           2
Jharkhand         3
Karnataka         9
Kerala            11
Madhya Pradesh    13
Maharashtra       4
Manipur           2
Meghalaya         1
Mizoram           1
Odisha            2
Punjab            8
Rajasthan         10
Tamil Nadu        5
Uttar Pradesh     2
West Bengal       4
NCT OF Delhi      1

Posted: **16 May 2019 10:03**

Saars, my humble request to you is to ignore everything in the media.

Which of these media folks predicted that the BJP would get a majority on their own in 2014? The fact is that that don't know nothing about nothing.

There are no journalists in the mainstream media anymore, there are only activists. They try to peddle these own agenda in the garb of objective journalism.

Just ignore them, drink a cool glass of nariyal pani or shikanji.

You see the thunderous rallies of Modiji. You see the empty roadshows of Priyankaji. You see the squabbling among the MahaThugBandhan.

And yet you dhoti shiver? No sir. Ayega toh Modi hi.

Posted: **16 May 2019 10:10**

if memory serves me right, no exit poll in 2014 predicted the BJP and NDA tally.
all of them underpredicted.

see the opinion polls and exit polls here https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_p ... l_election

the most generous gave 300 to NDA. final tally was 336.

even 2 hours into the results day, with results trickling in, there was no obvious sign of modi wave, I was watching NDTV and zoya hasan one of the panelists (jamia professor) was repeatedly giggling and asking rhetorically, "kaha hain modi wave? there aint no modi wave!" ....... over the next few hours history was made and her voice became increasingly constipated, until prannoy roy put her out of misery and started interrupting her anytime she tried to speak

Posted: **16 May 2019 10:15**

Suraj wrote:Interesting data posted by Rishi Bagree (I don’t have corroborative references):

Bengal GDP as percentage of India GDP
1950: 25%
1977: 13%
2019: 3%

fake. its around 7.6% if we take 190/2500

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_I ... ies_by_GDP

but its historical weight could be declining as neither in manufacturing or services it is growing much. all that growth has been captured by western and southern states and NCR.

Posted: **16 May 2019 10:16**

Singha wrote:if memory serves me right, no exit poll in 2014 predicted the BJP and NDA tally.
all of them underpredicted.

see the opinion polls and exit polls here https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_p ... l_election

the most generous gave 300 to NDA. final tally was 336.

Today's Chanakya had got it right back then. But then they messed up Bihar really bad. This time too one of the polls might get it right like a broken clock being right twice a day.

Posted: **16 May 2019 10:18**

ShyamSP wrote:
ramana wrote:
One scenario I did before elections started where I could get up to 92 for INC. In this scenario NDA falls short by 20 and takes TRS like parties support to reach magic mark. Some states' Loksabha data was interpolated with the Vidhansabha data of last 1-2 years.
Code: Select all
Assam             3
Bihar             2
Chhattisgarh      8
Gujarat           1
Haryana           2
Jharkhand         3
Karnataka         9
Kerala            11
Madhya Pradesh    13
Maharashtra       4
Manipur           2
Meghalaya         1
Mizoram           1
Odisha            2
Punjab            8
Rajasthan         10
Tamil Nadu        5
Uttar Pradesh     2
West Bengal       4
NCT OF Delhi      1

What are the 5 seats in TN? Sivagangai, Kanyakumari, Maybe Tiruchi. What else?

Posted: **16 May 2019 10:21**

RADAR controversy beautifully and scientifically explained by ISRO scientist Shri Tapan Misra

https://m.facebook.com/story.php?story_ ... 1428772703

Since yesterday, many people in media and common curious fellows started calling me up. Some even visited me personally. As a radar person of some knowledge, what is my view on the hot debates on certain confusion about the possibility of very cloudy and rainy weathers helping invading fighter aircrafts in escaping after completion of their tasks. And the debates have overflown in social media and etc. etc.

Radars use micro waves, which is reasonably transparent to clouds under nominal weather condition. But under dense cloud or heavy rain condition, they get absorbed quite heavily, to the tune of ~1 to ~10 dB per km. For lay men's knowledge, dB is a logarithmic scale and non linear. 10 dB is 10 times, 20 dB is 100 times, 30 dB is 1000 times. On other side 1 dB is 1.1 times, 3 dB is 2 times, 6 dB is 4 times. Higher the frequency of the radar, more the attenuation as given in the diagram.

Radars are operated at different microwave frequencies and nomenclatures in a funny way: L band 1-2 GHz(Giga Hertz), S band 2-4 GHz, C-band 4-8 GHz, C-band 8-12 GHz, Ku - band 12-18 GHz and so on. As you see in the plot, as you go to higher and higher frequencies, more and more losses are encountered.

Space borne imaging radars (like RISAT SAR) see through clouds quite well as the look straight down and encounter small cross section of clouds and rains ranging from ~100 m to ~1-2 km. Please remember, radar pulses propagate to target and then reflected or scattered back. So they undergo double the loss (called two way loss) than common satellite communication signals, which suffer one way losses. One SAR image shows that even for small propagation distance, under heavy cloud condition SAR imaging system loses the signals. All of us experienced some time or other, loss in Ku band DTH signal in our homes even under moderate cloud condition, even though signal reaches in vertical direction,,encountering minimum cloud cross section. I can say when you lose such DTH signal, loss will be more than 10 dB I.e, signal is attenuated more than 10 times.

Consider tracking radar cases, radar pulse travels almost horizontally when the aircraft is far from the radar of the order of a few tens of km or more. Clouds are spread horizontally far and wide. The tracking radar signal travels through cloud and rain by almost tens to hundreds of km. Under heavy cloud or rain conditions, the loss may be tens of dB to hundreds of dB depending on the frequency.

The friendly fighter and normal passenger and cargo aircrafts are tracked by transponder mode. The received weak radar signal is amplified by the transponder in the aircraft and returned back. So losses in transmission is compensated by increasing the transponder gain. So normally transponder tracking is more resilient for atmospheric cloud or rain losses. Further such radars are operated at low frequencies in L and S band, minimizing the losses.

But enemy fighter aircrafts switch off the transponders. Only way to track them is by skin mode trackong, where signals bouncing or scattered back from aircrafts are detected. Normally now a days, fighter aircrafts, by design, have low radar cross section, this means only a small fraction of incident microwaves , to the tune of one tenth to one hundredth is bounced back. Coupled with atmospheric losses, the effective tracking range of the radars are reduced under very adverse weather conditions. Since, radar visibility of objects increases with square of frequency, for better tracking of enemy aircrafts under skin mode, tracking radars are operated in higher frequencies like S, C or X band. So they suffer more losses in bad weather condition and effective tracking ranges are reduced. So under bad weather, enemy aircraft is detected when they are so close to the target that hardly any reaction time by launching counter strike is available. So bad weather helps attacking aircrafts to 'escape' easily. However, needless to say, in operating military fighter missions under inclement weather, it calls for superior skill of the pilot and superior instrumentation and capability of the fighter aircrafts.

Posted: **16 May 2019 10:41**

Instead of dhoti-shivering , prepare for lungi dance , lungi uthake .

Posted: **16 May 2019 11:03**

Singha wrote:even 2 hours into the results day, with results trickling in, there was no obvious sign of modi wave, I was watching NDTV and zoya hasan one of the panelists (jamia professor) was repeatedly giggling and asking rhetorically, "kaha hain modi wave? there aint no modi wave!" ....... over the next few hours history was made and her voice became increasingly constipated, until prannoy roy put her out of misery and started interrupting her anytime she tried to speak

I am thinking of breaking my self-imposed restriction of staying away from all things NDTV next Thu, so I could watch the khujli of the panelists, led by Prannoy himself

Once again, my prediction is BJP and NDA will do better than 2014. Fingers crossed onlee.

Posted: **16 May 2019 11:15**

nachiket wrote:Today's Chanakya had got it right back then. But then they messed up Bihar really bad. This time too one of the polls might get it right like a broken clock being right twice a day.

No, it's not a question of broken clocks. GE 2014 and Bihar 2015 were very different kinds of elections. The former was a wave election, particularly in the Hindi heartland. The latter was a very competitive 3-way or 4-way fight in most AS seats.

This matters a LOT, because each pollster has a methodology. Their methodology works well with some types of elections, and not with others. Pretty much no one should be expected to have the ability to have a golden regression model that fits every kind of election. That's really not achievable.

For reference, Nate Silver was extremely good at projecting the US presidential elections in 2012 for Obama. This was a conventional strong incumbent against weak challenger fight, with predictable voting patterns nationwide. He was terrible at forecasting the silent wave in favour of Trump in 2016. Given that record , Nate would have done poorly at forecasting GE2014.

PP and Chanakya both forecast the wave in 2014 correctly - something traditional agencies did not . PP does quite well at vote to seat share projections in such elections - he did so in GE 2014 and UP 2017 .

But his model doesn’t do vote to seat conversion well in tight multicorner fights . He gets trends well and even voteshare reasonably well but his model cannot project seats well .to be fair , such elections are the hardest thing to get right .

So a further question would be - are PP or Chanakya able to identify wave elections without false positives OR false negatives . If so, then it follows that if their model identifies a wave election, they are also likely to project well .

Posted: **16 May 2019 11:23**

Vikas wrote:
ramana wrote:It would be interesting to know which 100 seats Congress is expected to get per the Satta market?

We already completed 6 phases and the 7th phase is hardly Congress friendly area.
Punjab and MP with 13 and 8 respectively.
be generous and let them get half each.
Or take the voteshare % of last assy elections and give them proportionally.

So any takers to tally the 100 for Congress?
I have never understood this fascination for satta bazar. How would they have gyan on the pulse of Indian voters across India. Like so many others, they too are hedging their bets to make maximum money. I would pay as much attention to them as I pay to 'G' in Lasagne.
Congress reaching 100 is not happening in 2019. Don't go by result of Assembly elections in MP,RJ and CG. They can be deceptive.
The only 3 states from where congress will get most seats are Punjab, KA & KL with some doles from Bihar plus 2(maybe ??) from UP.
Where are the catchment areas from where they will get the extra 56. Also we are assuming that they will be able to win back all the 44 which they won last time. The math just not add up. They should offer Bhog to Venkateshwara if they even cross 50.

Exactly ... the guys in satta bazar are there to make money and not get it right. The spreads/offers are dynamically adjusted to maximize the take of the market makers and to minimize their losses. It is based purely on the bets being placed and has not relation what so ever to the ground realities. If 90 out of 100 "betting" mangoes bet on CON, the spreads/offer/whatever it is called will reflect the betting dynamics rather than actual probability.

At least in opinion/exit polls the polling agencies "try or claim to" mimic the actual profile of the Indian electorate. Who bets in the satta bazar? Opiniated folks who have too much money and too much time on hand to indulge in such past times. Certainly not the most representative segment of the Indian electorate. Plus it it their view of the views of the Indian electorate. Derivative of a derivative!

Posted: **16 May 2019 11:26**

Suraj wrote: No, it's not a question of broken clocks. GE 2014 and Bihar 2015 were very different kinds of elections. The former was a wave election, particularly in the Hindi heartland. The latter was a very competitive 3-way or 4-way fight in most AS seats.

This matters a LOT, because each pollster has a methodology. Their methodology works well with some types of elections, and not with others. Pretty much no one should be expected to have the ability to have a golden regression model that fits every kind of election. That's really not achievable.

For reference, Nate Silver was extremely good at projecting the US presidential elections in 2012 for Obama. This was a conventional strong incumbent against weak challenger fight, with predictable voting patterns nationwide. He was terrible at forecasting the silent wave in favour of Trump in 2016.

To be fair to TC, they had got a few state elections right before 2014 as well. That's why they had a reputation by the time Bihar came along. And they got it completely wrong. I believe they goofed up in some other places too. Problem is, whom do you believe? None of the polling agencies have really been consistent in recent times. One or two of them will get it right but you can never know which one.

Posted: **16 May 2019 11:35**

I cannot think of another state where there’s a four cornered fight where two regional parties and two national parties were all jockeying for seats, as Bihar 2015 was. Can you name which elections and which states these were ? TN has two strong regional parties and no national ones . Same for AP to an extent . UP and Bihar are the only ones with strong 3-4 corner fights .

I’ve little or no regard for past count of correct or wrong results as mere binary counts . It’s more important to understand what kind of elections they were, because models in general work well with a certain subset of election types and not others .

In PPs case , he has a single false negative - the CG 2018 where he did not recognize a wave that happened . He has no significant false positives (claimed there was a wave but there actually wasn’t) , but I’m happy to be corrected .

Posted: **16 May 2019 11:47**

Suraj wrote:I cannot think of another state where there’s a four cornered fight where two regional parties and two national parties were all jockeying for seats, as Bihar 2015 was. Can you name which elections and which states these were ? TN has two strong regional parties and no national ones . Same for AP to an extent . UP and Bihar are the only ones with strong 3-4 corner fights .

I’ve little or no regard for past count of correct or wrong results as mere binary counts . It’s more important to understand what kind of elections they were, because models in general work well with a certain subset of election types and not others .

In PPs case , he has a single false negative - the CG 2018 where he did not recognize a wave that happened . He has no significant false positives (claimed there was a wave but there actually wasn’t) , but I’m happy to be corrected .

Suraj, weren't the 2015 Bihar elections basically a 2 cornered fight since everybody had joined one of two alliances? It was basically NDA vs the original Mahathigbandhan. And TC didn't get it wrong by a little they bungled it royally.

As for PP, looking at his unbelievable projections right now, I will either declare him the Mahdi on May 23 or stop listening to what he says altogether

Posted: **16 May 2019 12:19**

these days one can go online in tata sky type portals and select/unselect each and every channel one wants for a individual monthly fee.
most news channels are either free or a token sum like Rs 1-5 per month.
needless to say I dont have NDTV at present, but if the winds blow well on 23rd will sign up for a month to enjoy the burnol and 'grief counselling' on the menu.

being a sdre coward will wait till 4pm to be absolutely sure

sadly my sources say bjp 180 and nda 220. no chance to making it near 274.

Posted: **16 May 2019 12:23**

Chowkidar Arun Jaitley
Verified account
@arunjaitley
15h15 hours ago

A free campaign is not possible and therefore the campaign has to be cut short. This is a classical case of breakdown of the Constitutional Machinery.

A constitutional authority, the Election Commission of India, has effectively held Bengal to be a state in Anarchy. Repeatedly escalating violence, state supported Vandals, a partisan police and home department are the illustrations the ECI has given.

Posted: **16 May 2019 12:38**

Worth a read:
https://www.firstpost.com/politics/lok- ... 40901.html

That appears to be an antidote of sorts to the affliction of "dhoti-shivers" till 23-24 May, as the esteemed BRF members call it!

Posted: **16 May 2019 12:42**

nachiket wrote:
Singha wrote:if memory serves me right, no exit poll in 2014 predicted the BJP and NDA tally.
all of them underpredicted.

see the opinion polls and exit polls here https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_p ... l_election

the most generous gave 300 to NDA. final tally was 336.
Today's Chanakya had got it right back then. But then they messed up Bihar really bad. This time too one of the polls might get it right like a broken clock being right twice a day.

IIRC TC got the state wise tally wrong, elections in India are highly local, BJP got majority by winning 85-100% of the seats in UP, GJ, RJ, MP etc in spite of getting 0 to a handful in other states like KL, TN, OR. IMO just getting nation wide total right does not count for much.

Posted: **16 May 2019 12:48**

abhik wrote: IIRC TC got the state wise tally wrong, elections in India are highly local, BJP got majority by winning 85-100% of the seats in UP, GJ, RJ, MP etc in spite of getting 0 to a handful in other states like KL, TN, OR. IMO just getting nation wide total right does not count for much.

Who had expected BJP to get any significant number of seats in KL and TN back in 2014?

Posted: **16 May 2019 12:50**

I am still on
BJP 190
NDA 220

Posted: **16 May 2019 13:04**

Singha wrote:these days one can go online in tata sky type portals and select/unselect each and every channel one wants for a individual monthly fee.
most news channels are either free or a token sum like Rs 1-5 per month.
needless to say I dont have NDTV at present, but if the winds blow well on 23rd will ~~sign up for a month to~~ enjoy the burnol and 'grief counselling' on the menu.

being a sdre coward will wait till 4pm to be absolutely sure

sadly my sources say bjp 180 and nda 220. no chance to making it near 274.

Absolutely!

Posted: **16 May 2019 13:37**

May be they are building up case for evm story? I can imagine the headlines,

"Modi wins the lokhsabha despite the expectations", "no one predicted bjp majority, something wrong with the evm". I am sure they will quote these cooked up negative waves to support their hack theory.

IMO the opposition is like night time monsters. they run away from the scene once the light flows in. don't feed these monsters.

bjp has fixed vote share of 45-48% out of the 65% potential vote share. congis and others have to get at least 50.01% to put check to BJP. I don't see how it is cake walk for them. If they could have done it, they would have done it in the last election itself. they won Raj and MP with very slim margin. Congress trying to form this elusive 50.01% coalition.

i have small theory about the whole thing. will share it once the results are out. really don't want to jinx it. let's remember the old sloka,

धर्म एव हतो हन्ति धर्मो रक्षति रक्षितः ।
तस्माद्धर्मं त्यजेन्नैव मा नो धर्मो हतोऽवधीत्॥
–नित्यनीतिः ३४

Dharma destroys him who destroys Dharma. Dharma does protect him who protects it. Dharma therefore should not be abandoned. That Dharma, which is going to perish shall not destroy us.

We don't have to fear anything. If anything, the asura like congis should fear the future.

Posted: **16 May 2019 14:07**

https://edition.cnn.com/2019/05/16/indi ... index.html

something else to shiver about. $20tr economy in 2040 but less water?

Posted: **16 May 2019 14:10**

Singha wrote:https://edition.cnn.com/2019/05/16/indi ... index.html

something else to shiver about. $20tr economy in 2040 but less water?

We will have Bibi's help to desalinate water so that it is drinkable.

Posted: **16 May 2019 14:46**

https://twitter.com/hello_nitish/status ... 35744?s=20

India today leaks it's exit poll results. It's giving NDA 177 and BJP 120

But I think it's a deliberate and desperate attempt at influencing elections

Posted: **16 May 2019 14:51**

UlanBatori wrote:A story with no content. Buggers are trying their best to induce lungi-shivering. When has Bloomberg been India-friendly?

i wont be surprised if motabhai (mukes and amit) themselves are behind this news...

its not the first time ambanis/our other gujju bhais have made money from such tactics..

Posted: **16 May 2019 14:52**

that said did we have such thread for previous elections. It would be good to revise what happened in 2009 and 2019.

Posted: **16 May 2019 14:58**

AshishAcharya wrote:https://twitter.com/hello_nitish/status ... 35744?s=20

India today leaks it's exit poll results. It's giving NDA 177 and BJP 120

But I think it's a deliberate and desperate attempt at influencing elections

No one can be that stupid in India that they will publish any kind of poll results before the close of voting on the last stage of poll.

They don't want to be black listed.

Posted: **16 May 2019 15:10**

aylamrin wrote:
Singha wrote:https://edition.cnn.com/2019/05/16/indi ... index.html

something else to shiver about. $20tr economy in 2040 but less water?
We will have Bibi's help to desalinate water so that it is drinkable.

Just recently a piece passed my feed that mentioned a breakthrough in de-salination that will make it cheap to produce portable water in quantity. I just did not pay much attention to it.

Posted: **16 May 2019 15:14**

AshishAcharya wrote:https://twitter.com/hello_nitish/status ... 35744?s=20

India today leaks it's exit poll results. It's giving NDA 177 and BJP 120

But I think it's a deliberate and desperate attempt at influencing elections

FUD ...

Posted: **16 May 2019 15:17**

https://www.firstpost.com/india/travels ... 37201.html
Travels through the Hindi belt: Rahul Gandhi's NYAY has no takers in Mirzapur's Saradah; most have not heard of it, don't believe it can work

Posted: **16 May 2019 15:18**

AshishAcharya wrote:https://twitter.com/hello_nitish/status ... 35744?s=20

India today leaks it's exit poll results. It's giving NDA 177 and BJP 120

But I think it's a deliberate and desperate attempt at influencing elections

GeoTV was passing by Sargodha on some other mission and crew testing the van mounted camera.
in passing , it catches some hanger doors open and catches the distinctive menacing shapes of 50 F22 parked inside ...

Posted: **16 May 2019 15:20**

AshishAcharya wrote:https://twitter.com/hello_nitish/status ... 35744?s=20

India today leaks it's exit poll results. It's giving NDA 177 and BJP 120

But I think it's a deliberate and desperate attempt at influencing elections

Well we can do our dhoti shivering, but if you were to go through the tweets of this fellow (not many, but just the latest 10-15 will do), you will see he is a proven BIF ... What is the need for such careless posts, even if it were true? Why is this obscure fellow so important to you?

Posted: **16 May 2019 15:21**

https://www.hindustantimes.com/lok-sabh ... Zo16M.html

TMC shivering at thought of Left votes shifting to BJP

Posted: **16 May 2019 15:27**

Shri Modi will lose only!!

Posted: **16 May 2019 15:29**

AshishAcharya wrote:India today leaks it's exit poll results. It's giving NDA 177 and BJP 120

Great! Even die-hard non-BJP fellows have not come up with such numbers! So as per India Today, who is going to form the government this time? CPI(M) or CPI?

Posted: **16 May 2019 15:39**

with abject failure of the brother sister duo, mother now steps up to unit the entire oppn in a maha-mega-thugbandhan ... they are trying hard to rope in non MGB leaders like KCR, Patnaik and no doubt Jagan also to close options for NDA to enlarge if they fall short.

https://www.ndtv.com/opinion/sonia-gand ... topstories

the only identity of this motley crew is they are NOT(modi)....and they all want to continue the loot in their own zamindaries.

all shall hunt for meat together

Posted: **16 May 2019 15:44**

AshishAcharya wrote:https://twitter.com/hello_nitish/status ... 35744?s=20

India today leaks it's exit poll results. It's giving NDA 177 and BJP 120

But I think it's a deliberate and desperate attempt at influencing elections

This is correct. BJP will lose onlee.

Posted: **16 May 2019 15:46**

Sachin wrote:
AshishAcharya wrote:India today leaks it's exit poll results. It's giving NDA 177 and BJP 120
Great! Even die-hard non-BJP fellows have not come up with such numbers! So as per India Today, who is going to form the government this time? CPI(M) or CPI?

Posted: **16 May 2019 15:47**

NEW DELHI: Nathuram Godse, the man who assassinated Mahatma Gandhi, "was a deshbhakt (patriot), is a deshbhakt and will remain one," the BJP's Pragya Singh Thakur said today, adding to her growing list of controversial statements.

^^^ media trying to bait her. win or lose I think her role is to disrupt and take maximalist positions to energize the hardcore RW, while others take care of the center. plus lot of flares and chaff to keep the media engaged.

a MALD-ER projectile to trigger IADS networks for cataloguing of e-orbat and later targeting.

Bharat Rakshak

2019 General Elections News and Discussion

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