I understand your fears. I really do. I was panicking myself in late Jan, but you should do your research. Read through all the data points I present below (you can find links to primary or secondary sources at
https://swprs.org/a-swiss-doctor-on-covid-19/ which is where I got these data points.)
1. 99% of deaths in Italy are made up of the very old and those with weak constitutions (one or more diseases and the more the comorbidities you have, the more likely you'll die.)
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... italy-says
From the Swprs website:
"The Italian National Health Institute ISS has published a new report on test-positive deaths:
The median age is 80.5 years (79.5 for men, 83.7 for women).
10% of the deceased was over 90 years old; 90% of the deceased was over 70 years old.
At most 0.8% of the deceased had no pre-existing chronic illnesses.
Approximately 75% of the deceased had two or more pre-existing conditions, 50% had three more pre-existing conditions, in particular heart disease, diabetes and cancer.
Five of the deceased were between 31 and 39 years old, all of them with serious pre-existing health conditions (e.g. cancer or heart disease)."
2. "Northern Italy has one of the oldest populations and the worst air quality in Europe, which had already led to an increased number of respiratory diseases and deaths in the past and is likely an additional risk factor in the current epidemic." (
https://swprs.files.wordpress.com/2020/ ... =550&h=309)
Note how the die off zone in northern Italy has seriously bad air quality just like wuhan did. The disease mortality rates apparently shoot up 200% from average if the air quality is moderate. That pic shows air quality in north Italy is much worse. 300ppm in the chart you see above.
3. The mortality profile remains puzzling from a virological point of view because, in contrast to influenza viruses, children are spared and men are affected about twice as often as women. On the other hand, this profile corresponds to natural mortality, which is close to zero for children and almost twice as high for 75-year-old men as for women of the same age. (again from the swprs page.)
4. In Switzerland, some emergency units are already overloaded simply because of the large number of people who want to be tested. This points to an additional psychological and logistical component of the current situation. (this is happening elsewhere as well.)
5. The occupancy rate of the North Italian ICUs in the winter months is typically already 85 to 90%. Some or many of these existing patients could also be test-positive by now. However, the number of additional unexpected pneumonia cases is not yet known. (so apparently, there wasn't all that much excess ICU capacity before the system was overwhelmed.)
6. Chinese researchers argue that extreme winter smog in the city of Wuhan may have played a causal role in the outbreak of pneumonia. In the summer of 2019, public protests were already taking place in Wuhan because of the poor air quality. (even the Chinese think the smog that we were all agog about had a role to play. So, basically, the Chinese seemed to have gassed their population to death in an effort to disinfect wuhan.)
7. Here's a fun fact about the test kits. At least one of them isn't approved for diagnostic use and god knows how many of them are.
"A manufacturer of the Covid19 test kit states that it should only be used for research purposes and not for diagnostic applications, as it has not yet been clinically validated."
8. Italian ICUs have already collapsed under the load once before during the 2017-18 flu season:
"A report in the Italian newspaper Corriere della Sera points out that Italian intensive care units already collapsed under the marked flu wave in 2017/2018. They had to postpone operations, call nurses back from holiday and ran out of blood donations."
9. German virologist Hendrik Streeck argues that Covid19 is unlikely to increase total mortality in Germany, which normally is around 2500 people per day. Streeck mentions the case of a 78-year-old man with preconditions who died of heart failure, subsequently tested positive for Covid19 and thus was included in the statistics of Covid19 deaths.
10. According to the latest German statistics, the median age of test-positive deaths is about 83 years, most with pre-existing health conditions that might be a possible cause of death. (as in Italy, so apparently in Germany. Look at the Indian dead ages in wiki as well. Only one less than 40 (38 years to be precise.))
11. On March 20, Italy reported 627 nationwide test-positive deaths in one day. By comparison, normal overall mortality in Italy is about 1800 deaths per day. Since February 21, Italy has reported about 4000 test-positive deaths. Normal overall mortality during this time frame is up to 50,000 deaths. It is not yet known to what extent normal overall mortality has increased, or to what extent it has simply turned test-positive. Moreover, Italy and Europe have had a very mild flu season in 2019/2020 that has spared many otherwise vulnerable people.
12. The kicker about overwhelmed ICUs causing deaths:
"According to Italian news reports, 90% of test-positive deceased in the Lombardy region have died outside of intensive care units, mostly at home or in general care sections. Their cause of death and the possible role of quarantine measures in their deaths remain unclear. Only 260 out of 2168 test-positive persons have died in ICUs."
So, 90% of the dead in Lombardy who died *with* Chinese flu did not have Acute Respiratory Distress Syndrome. And given the age profiles listed in point 1, one could be excused for assuming they were mostly old timers who were going to die within the next year (this means none of those deaths would contribute to excess deaths, btw. A doctor friend of mine over at Baen's Bar says that we have to count the total dead in the year of the pandemic and the next and if the overall death rate increase is less than 5% then the disease did not cause significant excess deaths. Given the age profiles of the dead so far, I'd be surprised if there is even an increase.)
13. No runaway epidemic in Japan with temperatures very conducive to virus survival.
"The Japan Times asks: Japan was expecting a coronavirus explosion. Where is it? Despite being one of the first countries getting positive test results and having imposed no lockdown, Japan is one of the least-affected nations. Quote: „Even if Japan may not be counting all those infected, hospitals aren’t being stretched thin and there has been no spike in pneumonia cases.“"
14. The imposed lockdown can kill the elderly because they can't get care that they need:
"In a new interview, Professor Sucharit Bhakdi, a world renowned expert in medical microbiology, says blaming the new coronavirus alone for deaths is „wrong“ and „dangerously misleading“, as there are other more important factors at play, notably pre-existing health conditions and poor air quality in Chinese and Northern Italian cities. Professor Bhakdi describes the currently discussed or imposed measures as „grotesque“, „useless“, „self-destructive“ and a „collective suicide“ that will shorten the lifespan of the elderly and should not be accepted by society."
15. Only 12% of death certificates of those who died with the Chinese flu show it as the cause:
"If so, it may be one of those cases where the treatment is worse than the disease. (See update below: only 12% of death certificates show the coronavirus as a cause."
16. So, if the medical personnel have to self-quarantine, doesn't that reduce the count of nurses and doctors available for patient care:
"In many countries, there is already an increasing shortage of doctors and nurses. This is primarily because healthcare workers testing positive have to self-quarantine, even though in many cases they will remain fully or largely symptom-free."
17. The doomsday model that predicted half a million deaths in UK:
"A model from Imperial College London predicted between 250,000 and 500,000 deaths in the UK „from“ Covid-19, but the authors of the study have now conceded that many of these deaths would not be in addition to, but rather part of the normal annual mortality rate, which in the UK is about 600,000 people per year. In other words, excess mortality would remain low."
18. A new French study in the Journal of Antimicrobial Agents, titled SARS-CoV-2: fear versus data, concludes that „the problem of SARS-CoV-2 is probably overestimated“, since „the mortality rate for SARS-CoV-2 is not significantly different from that for common coronaviruses identified at the study hospital in France“.
19. Italy always has an apocalypse in the flu season because of the old age population:
"An Italian study of August 2019 found that flu deaths in Italy were between 7,000 and 25,000 in recent years. This value is higher than in most other European countries due to the large elderly population in Italy, and much higher than anything attributed to Covid-19 so far."
20. The Chinese flu is not spreading like lightning apparently. It has higher reproduction rates than flu, but the gestation period is longer so the flu wins the race:
"In a new fact sheet, the World Health Organization WHO reports that Covid-19 is in fact spreading slower, not faster, than influenza by a factor of about 50%. Moreover, pre-symptomatic transmission appears to be much lower with Covid-19 than with influenza."
21. Pietro Vernazza, a Swiss infectious disease specialist, argues that many of the imposed measures are not based on science and should be reversed. According to Vernazza, mass testing makes no sense because 90% of the population will see no symptoms, and lockdowns and closing schools are even „counterproductive“. He recommends protecting only risk groups while keeping the economy and society at large undisturbed.
22. The Swiss did not lockdown and strangely, there is no epidemic spreading like wildfire there:
"Beds in Swiss intensive care units reserved for Covid19 patients are still „mostly empty“."
23. German immunologist and toxicologist, Professor Stefan Hockertz, explains in a radio interview that Covid19 is no more dangerous than influenza (the flu), but that it is simply observed much more closely. More dangerous than the virus is the fear and panic created by the media and the „authoritarian reaction“ of many governments. Professor Hockertz also notes that most so-called „corona deaths“ have in fact died of other causes while also testing positive for coronaviruses. Hockertz believes that up to ten times more people than reported already had Covid19 but noticed nothing or very little.
24. Adjusted for age, the Diamond Princess data shows the Chinese flu is just a moderately serious flu:
"Using data from the cruise ship Diamond Princess, Stanford Professor John Ioannidis showed that the age-corrected lethality of Covid19 is between 0.025% and 0.625%, i.e. in the range of a strong cold or the flu. Moreover, a Japanese study showed that of all the test-positive passengers, and despite the high average age, 48% remained completely symptom-free; even among the 80-89 year olds 48% remained symptom-free, while among the 70 to 79 year olds it was an astounding 60% that developed no symptoms at all. This again raises the question whether the pre-existing diseases are not perhaps a more important factor than the virus itself. The Italian example has shown that 99% of test-positive deaths had one or more pre-existing conditions, and even among these, only 12% of the death certificates mentioned Covid19 as a causal factor."
BTW, in china, 78% of the infected did not show symptoms (the Chinese are releasing the data now that the whole world has shot itself in the foot.) Is China in the middle of a zombie apocalypse now?
25. In US, as the number of Chinese flu cases go up, the number of flulike illnesses count is dropping precipitously:
"USA: The latest US data of March 25 shows a decreasing number of flu-like illnesses throughout the country, the frequency of which is now well below the multi-year average. The government measures can be ruled out as a reason for this, as they have been in effect for less than a week."
https://healthweather.us/?mode=Atypical
So the disease was already there, but they are just now specifically identifying it. And you didn't see the American hospitals in the last few months did you?
26. Germany: The latest influenza report of the German Robert Koch Institute of March 24 documents a „nationwide decrease in activity of acute respiratory diseases“: The number of influenza-like illnesses and the number of hospital stays caused by them is below the level of previous years and is currently continuing to decline. The RKI continues: „The increase in the number of visits to the doctor cannot currently be explained either by influenza viruses circulating in the population or by SARS-CoV-2.“
So, in the middle of a killer respiratory disease, the number of infected count is lower than average? WTF pandemic?
27. How many infected in France? Mortality is average.
"France: According to the latest data from France, overall mortality at the national level remains within the normal range after a mild influenza season. However, in some regions, particularly in the north-east of France, overall mortality in the over-65 age group has already risen sharply in connection with Covid19 (see figure below)."
In france, the average age of patient requiring ICU is 65 years. This is the world killer disease that we're killing the economy for.
28. The doomsday UK study author changes his mind and thinks there are enough beds fand ventilators for the peak of the crisis:
"Neil Ferguson of Imperial College London now assumes that the UK has sufficient capacity in intensive care units to treat Covid19 patients."
29. German Virology professor Dr. Carsten Scheller from the University of Würzburg explains in a podcast that Covid19 is definitely comparable with influenza and has so far even led to fewer deaths. Professor Scheller suspects that the exponential curves often presented in the media have more to do with the increasing number of tests than with an unusual spread of the virus itself. For countries like Germany, Italy is less of a role model than Japan and South Korea. Despite millions of Chinese tourists and only minimal social restrictions, these countries have not yet experienced a Covid19 crisis. One reason for this could be the wearing of mouth masks: This would hardly protect against infection, but would limit the spread of the virus by infected people.
30. A new study by the University of Oxford concludes that Covid19 may already have existed in the UK since January 2020 and that half of the population may already be immunised, with most people experiencing no or only mild symptoms. This would mean that only one in a thousand people would need to be hospitalised for Covid19.
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101 ... 20042291v1
31. British media reported on a 21 year old woman „who died of Covid19 without any previous illnesses“. However, it has since become known that the woman did not test positive for Covid19 and died of a heart failure. The Covid19 rumor had arisen „because she had a slight cough“.
32. The latest data from the German Robert Koch Institute show that the increase in test-positive persons is proportional to the increase in the number of tests, i.e. in percentage terms it remains roughly the same. This may indicate that the increase in the number of cases is mainly due to an increase in the number of tests, and not due to an ongoing epidemic.
33. Overloaded hospitals in Germany. How? They quarantined the nurses. So there isn't enough care providers to provide care. LMAO
"In Germany, some clinics can no longer accept patients – not because there are too many patients or too few beds, but because the nursing staff have tested positive, although in most cases they hardly show any symptoms. This case illustrates again how and why health care systems are getting paralysed."
34. In a German retirement and nursing home for people with advanced dementia, 15 test-positive people have died. However, „surprisingly many people have died without showing symptoms of corona.“ A German medical specialist informs us: „From my medical point of view, there is some evidence that some of these people may have died as a result of the measures taken. People with dementia get into high stress when major changes are made to their everyday lives: isolation, no physical contact, possibly hooded staff.“ Nevertheless, the deceased are counted as „corona deaths“ in German and international statistics. In connection with the „corona crisis“, it is now also possible to die of an illness without even having its symptoms. (ties in with lockdown measures causing death amongst the elderly.)
35. According to a Swiss pharmacologist, the Swiss Inselspital in Bern has forced staff to take leave, stopped therapies and postponed operations due to the fear of Covid19. (my cousin who is a doctor tells me this is the case in parts of india wrt private hospitals. So, in the time of a pandemic, we close hospitals and send medical personnel home? And then cry about being overwhelmed.)
36. Those dead doctors in the west: They were very old, very retired doctors and included those who died of natural causes. ROFL
"Various media reported that more than 50 doctors in Italy have already died „during the corona crisis“, like soldiers in a battle. A glance at the corresponding list, however, shows that most of the deceased are retired doctors of various kinds, including 90-year-old psychiatrists and pediatricians, many of whom may have died of natural causes."
37. The percentage of positive tests that we talked about earlier in the thread:
"Dr. Richard Capek and other researchers have already shown that the number of test-positive individuals in relation to the number of tests performed remains constant in all countries studied so far, which speaks against an exponential spread („epidemic“) of the virus and merely indicates an exponential increase in the number of tests.
Depending on the country, the proportion of test-positive individuals is between 5 and 15%, which corresponds to the usual spread of corona viruses. Interestingly, these constant numerical values are not actively communicated (or even removed) by authorities and the media. Instead, exponential but irrelevant and misleading curves are shown without context.
Such behavior, of course, does not correspond to professional medical standards, as a look at the traditional influenza report of the German Robert Koch Institute makes clear (p. 30, see chart below). Here, in addition to the number of detections (right), the number of samples (left, grey bars) and the positive rate (left, blue curve) are shown.
This immediately shows that during a flu season the positive rate rises from 0 to 10% to up to 80% of the samples and drops back to the normal value after a few weeks. In comparison, Covid19 tests show a constant positive rate in the normal range"
38. Overall mortality in Europe was average in Europe until March 25. And before you start with they locked down the economy and so accidents, violent crimes, etc aren't happening, accidents cause 3.2% of deaths in all of EU. There were less than 6000 violent crime related deaths in all of EU last year.
"A graphical analysis of the European monitoring data impressively shows that, irrespective of the measures taken, overall mortality throughout Europe remained in the normal range or below by March 25, and often significantly below the levels of previous years. Only in Italy (65+) was the overall mortality rate somewhat increased (probably for several reasons), but it was still below previous flu seasons."
39. In Italy, there were already severe cases of pneumonia thanks to the bad air quality in january:
"Italian doctors reported that they had already observed severe cases of pneumonia in northern Italy at the end of last year. However, genetic analyses now show that the Covid19 virus only appeared in Italy in January of this year. „The severe pneumonia diagnosed in Italy in November and December must therefore be due to a different pathogen,“ a virologist noted. This once again raises the question what role the Covid19 virus, or other factors, actually play in the Italian situation."
40: the MSM are spreading lies as usual to hype the news cycle:
"The US television station CBS was caught using footage from an Italian intensive care unit in a piece on the current situation in New York. In fact, dozens of recordings by citizen journalists show that it is currently very quiet in the hospitals on the US East and West Coast, described as „war zones“ by the media. Even the „corpse refrigerator trucks“ prominently shown in the media are unused and empty."
41. No increased occupancy in German ICUs:
"Contrary to media reports, the register of German intensive care units also shows no increased occupancy. An employee of a Munich clinic explained that they had been „waiting for weeks for the wave to hit“, but that there was „no increase in patient numbers“. He said that the politicians‘ statements did not correspond with their own experience, and that the „myth of the killer virus“ could „not be confirmed“."
42. The director of the University Medical Center Hamburg, Dr. Ansgar Lohse, demands a quick end to curfews and contact bans. He argues that more people should be infected with corona. Kitas and schools should be reopened as soon as possible so that children and their parents can become immune through infection with the corona virus. The continuation of the strict measures would lead to an economic crisis, which would also cost lives, said the physician.
43. More on Germany and respiratory diseases. The Chinese flu is about 10-15% of the overall respiratory cases: Again, so much for an epidemic.
"According to the latest influenza report of the German Robert Koch Institute, the number of acute respiratory diseases has „fallen sharply nationwide“. The values have „dropped in all age groups“.
By March 20, the total number of inpatient cases with acute respiratory diseases had also fallen significantly. In the age group from 80 years and older, the number of cases had almost halved compared to the previous week.
In the 73 hospitals examined, 7% of all cases with respiratory diseases were diagnosed with COVID-19. In the age groups 35-59 years it was 16% and in the age group 60-79 years it was 13% who received a COVID-19 diagnosis.
These figures correspond to those from other countries as well as to the typical prevalence of coronaviruses (5 to 15%)."
44.Virus test kits destined for Great Britain had to be recalled because they already contained corona virus components. (so the test was always going to be positive. imagine that.)
45. How are corona virus deaths counted? The BBC answers:
"The BBC asks, „Is coronavirus causing the deaths?„, and replies, „It could be the major cause, a contributory factor or simply present when they are dying of something else.“ For example, an 18-year-old man was reported as the „youngest Corona victim“ after a positive test the day before his death. However, the hospital later reported that the young man had died of a serious pre-existing condition."
46. The relation between pollution and flu and mortality was already known at least as early as 2018:
"Already in 2018, the Guardian wrote that „Pollution and flu bring steep rise in lung-related illnesses„: Shortage of specialists adds to worries that surge in respiratory diseases is putting pressure on A&Es."
hanumadu wrote:Arun.prabhu, If the Chinese Flu is not any more harmful than normal flu, then how come hospitals are over run by sick people? Why is there a shortage of ventilators? Why are doctors having to triage patients? Why are health care professionals themselves getting sick and dying too? And mind you, this is with social distancing and lock down. What will happen without the lock down.
