Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

[RajeshA]

Today was Samman Rally in Haryana organized by INLD to mark 100th birth anniversary of party founder Chaudhary Devi Lal. It had a strongly anti-Congress flavor. Prakash Singh Badal of SAD urged INLD and BJP to form an alliance.

Modi would get the alliances right in Haryana, Karnataka, Maharashtra, but in Jharkhand it would not work.

[muraliravi]

Today was Samman Rally in Haryana organized by INLD to mark 100th birth anniversary of party founder Chaudhary Devi Lal. It had a strongly anti-Congress flavor. Prakash Singh Badal of SAD urged INLD and BJP to form an alliance.

Modi would get the alliances right in Haryana, Karnataka, Maharashtra, but in Jharkhand it would not work.

Rajesh ji, In maharashtra too i doubt. They can at best do a silent deal. Considering the fact that BJP is hoping to ride a wave in UP and Bihar, it is best they stay away from RT in public domain.

[niran]

Niran bhai why 68 only in UP why 12 missing, 10 in Bihar, are they adjoining area to UP?

me is lowly fly on the wall, moi flight range reaches out to onree 78 LS seats the 10 in Bihar are adjoining the UP border,
since Lallu jail term there are rumblings that even Siwan, Gopalgunj and Chapara are going to bhajapa onree Sasaram is the hold out, it is Babu Jugjeevanram's daughter Meira Coomar's traditional seat rest is 100% going to Bhajapa, regardless of whosoever contest
that makes 9/10 sweet moojik, no?

[Muppalla]

Niran bhai why 68 only in UP why 12 missing, 10 in Bihar, are they adjoining area to UP?

me is lowly fly on the wall, moi flight range reaches out to onree 78 LS seats the 10 in Bihar are adjoining the UP border,
since Lallu jail term there are rumblings that even Siwan, Gopalgunj and Chapara are going to bhajapa onree Sasaram is the hold out, it is Babu Jugjeevanram's daughter Meira Coomar's traditional seat rest is 100% going to Bhajapa, regardless of whosoever contest
that makes 9/10 sweet moojik, no?

Please put seat-by-seat analysis for UP and Bihar. Thx

[Santosh]

Rajesh ji, In maharashtra too i doubt. They can at best do a silent deal. Considering the fact that BJP is hoping to ride a wave in UP and Bihar, it is best they stay away from RT in public domain.

I don't think a tie up with RT will be looked like that. At this point everyone knows that it is difficult for BJP to secure allies unlike Congi just going out and buying allies. Rather they will be happy that RT has turned around, given up anti-naarth rhetoric and joined dharmic alliance.

niranji, after tearing up and throwing out the nonsense ordinance one would think that Congi would not touch RJD with a long pole. The fear of Yadav exodus in UP-Bihar is why Congi is tying up with RJD. Yadavs have been used to Rangbaazi for couple decades but have been sized up under Nikamma. They will be desperate to answer the call of Congi+RJD. Unless there is a tsunamo. OTOH, after the muh tod jawab by Hindus, the Muslims in UP and Bihar will connect the dots in a way they are wired to. Tsunamo or no Tsunamo.

[niran]

niranji, after tearing up and throwing out the nonsense ordinance one would think that Congi would not touch RJD with a long pole. The fear of Yadav exodus in UP-Bihar is why Congi is tying up with RJD. Yadavs have been used to Rangbaazi for couple decades but have been sized up under Nikamma. They will be desperate to answer the call of Congi+RJD. Unless there is a tsunamo. OTOH, after the muh tod jawab by Hindus, the Muslims in UP and Bihar will connect the dots in a way they are wired to. Tsunamo or no Tsunamo.

Santoshji,
when Lallo went to jail, every RJD and their dogs began barking "it is a conspiracy" the public knew who the conspirators were,
and feels nice to hear it from their leaders but to the shocked and surprise of all Yadav samaj Rabri devi and RJD Netas said
after mucho dilly dallying Bhajapa and Nitish are the conspirator and promptly began making sounds about joining hands with cangress, the people knew and asked since the sarkar is of cangress then how come the bhajapa are conpirating, all these years Lalloji had been in the sarkar himself then why did not he quashed the conspiracy? and they are joining hands with conspirators themselves, they think the public are fools!?! lets us teach them a lesson.

second, in the villages around UP border every second or third family have at least some one making a living in Gujarat they have seen that in Gujarat there are real roads, they do not need to pay Rs.50 to charge their mobile from some one who has a electric generator set
they do not need to pay hafta to any one else, they are not spat upon as harbinger of Malaria or Dengue, so on and so forth, these people do not read NEWS papers, the onree papers they read is during their hair cutting session at the barber shop that too onree oogle at oogable photos, they have to have electricity to watch TV and when that is available they watch kirkit not dissing and cussing by queen's enlish sprouting yen dea tea vee or khari Hindi AAj tak tej, the people believe what they see, and they see eutopia in NaMo's Gujarat, they say if NaMo can do it in Gujarat, then why can't he for whole of India, their villagers believe them and hence you see barefoot holloi polloi, farmers, unemployed, rickshaw puller, auto drivers etc.etc. flocking to his rally, just to have a glimpse, and this time it is a TsuNaMo, no two things about it.

[chaanakya]

the onree papers they read is during their hair cutting session at the barber shop .

You are right. These buggers will be taught a lesson in upcoming thriller 2014. UP and BIHAR with Jharkhand(?) will washout B Group of Congis. I am sure this is going to be decisive moment. Only doubt I have is about AP and that may save Congis, what a shame for Andhra/Telugu people.

On lighter note

Looks like you are doing rounds of Bihar and UP managing Rallies? We used to call these barber shop , hold your breath...........

ITALIAN SALOON.

Can you tell why??

[Muppalla]

BJP to emerge single largest party in UP & Bihar in 2014: Survey

Lucknow/Patna, Nov 2: The BJP is likely to bag 44 of the 120 Lok Sabha seats in Uttar Pradesh and Bihar if the Lok Sabha elections are held now, a pre-poll survey done by AC Nielsen for The Economic Times said a few days ago. The party has 23 seats from these two states now. The jump by 21 seats will also make the BJP the single largest party in these two states (27 in UP and 17 in Bihar).The Congress, on the other hand, is likely to see a fall by 7 seats. In Uttar Pradesh, where the party had won 21 seats in the 2009 polls, its tally this time is set to go down to 12 while in Bihar it might see a rise by two seats to four. According to the survey, both the big regional players in UP, the Samajwadi Party and Bahujan Samaj Party might not see any improvement this time. While the BSP is likely to repeat its 20sit performance of 2009, the SP is likely to lose seven seats from its 2009 tally of 23.The BJP is likely to get 44 out of 120 seats in these two key states. In Bihar, the JD(U)'s seats are predicted to go down by 10 (from 20) while the RJD may touch 5 this time, one more than what it had achieved in 2009. On Modi vs Rahul debateIt was a complete rout for the latter with the polls showing that while in UP, 50 per cent of the people backed Modi, just 9 per cent backed Gandhi. In Bihar, the figure was 47-19 in favour of Modi. The remaining per cent of people in UP and Bihar backed other leaders like Mayawati, Mulayam Singh Yadav and Nitish Kumar.

[fanne]

Well I am more optimistic than the number projected. At least it establishes BJP as the top dog in each state. For anti-incumbency votes (or swing votes), in the range of 5-10%, BJP will be the destination. Most parties will retain their core votes, with each loosing some to BJP. As more surveys come, picture will be more clear.

[Muppalla]

Well I am more optimistic than the number projected. At least it establishes BJP as the top dog in each state. For anti-incumbency votes (or swing votes), in the range of 5-10%, BJP will be the destination. Most parties will retain their core votes, with each loosing some to BJP. As more surveys come, picture will be more clear.

My only worry is that they peak before Jan and a set of coalitions such as BSP+INC+KCR+Laloo etc gets announced. After that surveys start putting 150 each. That will become a thaw in the wave.

[RoyG]

INC and laloo are bad words these days. I doubt it's going to change. There wont be a thaw. The closer we get the more excited the people are going to become.

[muraliravi]

Well if they are only getting 44 now. After cong bsp alliance and cong rjd alliance it will be down to 20

[RajeshA]

Well if they are only getting 44 now. After cong bsp alliance and cong rjd alliance it will be down to 20

Congress's Hindu votebank is completely a floating one, and SP, BSP, RJD's Hindu votebanks are half-floating ones. In case of polarization, these wd go to the one carrying the wave.

JDU thinks its votebank is all sealed up after his social engineering of EBCs and Mahadalits but that is hardly the case. Nitish Kumar doesn't have a private votebank the way Mayawati, Mulayam Singh Yadav or Lalu Prasad Yadav have.

Except for some areas, Maya, MSY, Lalu may be able to stich together a formidable OwnJati+Muslim alliance, but if all floating flock to NaMo then all others are cooked, especially Congress and JDU.

[muraliravi]

Well if they are only getting 44 now. After cong bsp alliance and cong rjd alliance it will be down to 20

Congress's Hindu votebank is completely a floating one, and SP, BSP, RJD's Hindu votebanks are half-floating ones. In case of polarization, these wd go to the one carrying the wave.

JDU thinks its votebank is all sealed up after his social engineering of EBCs and Mahadalits but that is hardly the case. Nitish Kumar doesn't have a private votebank the way Mayawati, Mulayam Singh Yadav or Lalu Prasad Yadav have.

Except for some areas, Maya, MSY, Lalu may be able to stich together a formidable OwnJati+Muslim alliance, but if all floating flock to NaMo then all others are cooked, especially Congress and JDU.

Congress can armtwist rjd into an alliance anyday and rjd is anyway ready for alliance with them. LJP will also join. In 2004 they fought together against bjp+jdu combine and defeated them squarely. In 2009 bjp+jdu got lucky becos cong and lalu did not ally. Now even if BJP and jdu had fought together, but congress had allied with rjd and paswan, the nda would have been in trouble and may have got max of 20 seats in bihar. Now they dont even have jdu (even if he is a jack***), he can still get 5-6% vote with him. So BJP will fight against congress+rjd+ljp all alone. If yadav vote does not come to bjp, i dont see any more than 10 seats. All these surveys are projecting numbers if everyone fights alone.

http://www.lensonnews.com/lonspecial/1/ ... -poll.html

Thats gvl's survey, usually on the optimistic side for BJP. He gives BJP 29/40 if everyone fights alone, which I may agree. But look at his scenario 2, he says if congress and jdu ally. That itself screws BJP enough. But even in that case, one can argue that with lalu in jail now (this survey was done in may), yadavs will move to bjp and bjp will gain. But what if cong goes with rjd and paswan, he conveniently ingores that scenario, add the individual numbers in scene 1 for this case, The upa will get a whopping 38% vote and BJP only 31 and nitish 14. BJP would need to rob nitish of every vote he has (always impossible in indian politcs), maybe they can get some.

But I see it as a damn tough fight, we can go gaga over modi's rallies, but the muslim-yadav combine with the vested congress vote share has held UPA in good stead in bihar. In 2009 LS and 2010 Assembly for some reason cong and lalu split, but if they go together, even a full NDA would have been in trouble. So even if Nitish gets 10% vote, BJP will get max 4% vote transfer from him to reach 35% vote, which will still fall short of UPA's 38.

I still feel that a Cong-Lalu-Paswan alliance can screw BJP. Yadavs wont desert lalu as long as they think he can win.

[Sushupti]

A Blockbuster

Are the Akalis planning to field Sunny Deol against Manish Tewari in Ludhiana? According to sources, the Akali Dal is contemplating fielding a heavyweight against Tewari in order to wrest the seat from the Congress. Well, that certainly explains why Deol has been taking on so many Son of Sardar type roles. With Deol's brawn and Tewari's tweetable-dialogues this is going to be one political blockbuster.

http://www.sunday-guardian.com/coolbreez

[muraliravi]

http://www.sunday-guardian.com/buzzword

'SP, Congress will battle for third place in UP’

When two politicians from Uttar Pradesh meet, the only thing they talk about is which party will get how many seats in the 2014 general elections. When Congress' Salim Shervani met his former Samajwadi Party colleague Kamal Farouqi at a dinner, they both agreed that the Bahujan Samaj Party and the Bharatiya Janata Party would come first and second in UP. They could not agree on which party would emerge third, Congress or SP. Shervani said that Congress would come third. This was strongly contended by Farouqi, who asserted that there was no way that SP would slide to the fourth position, that "mara haathi bhi sawa laakh ka hota hai". It is the Congress that will come fourth because it has nothing left in UP, he said.

[muraliravi]

http://www.sunday-guardian.com/news/cha ... te-to-modi

Sources said that the INLD did not even invite the state BJP leadership, indicating that Modi is working on a different formula to benefit from the situation in Haryana: an understanding with INLD through Badal, and with the HJC through the local unit. INLD may also find a partner in the Congress rebel Rao Inderjit Singh, who is believed to have some influence over the Yadavs in around dozen constituencies. Rao's ancestor Rao Tula Ram was a hero of the 1857 rebellion against the British.

[RajeshA]

muraliravi ji,

Who is with Congress in UP and Bihar?

Muslims would vote for candidate most capable of defeating the BJP candidate regardless of Congress. Who else does Congress bring in this time against Modi?

I heard the Bhumihars were with Congress in Bihar but have started shifting to BJP!

So how does it matter whether Congress is with JDU or RJD?

[muraliravi]

muraliravi ji,

Who is with Congress in UP and Bihar?

Muslims would vote for candidate most capable of defeating the BJP candidate regardless of Congress. Who else does Congress bring in this time against Modi?

I heard the Bhumihars were with Congress in Bihar but have started shifting to BJP!

So how does it matter whether Congress is with JDU or RJD?

This is exactly how i used to think, until i analyzed what is below. Below is a graph of 2009 LS performance in bihar for congress. I dont who votes for congress but someone does, muslims voted for them only in 2 districts where they are good majority so they know that in those seats just their votes to congress can beat bjp, but what about the rest?? I am sure most muslims votes rjd, but someone is voting congress in an election where they had no chance in bihar, i haven't been able to guess who, but that incremental vote from congress defintely helps rjd trump bjp.

here is the graph (look at the nice spread they have across all seats)

[Hari Seldon]

^^When was the last time Bihar saw a wave? Heck, Bihar remained aloof and immune to even the last genuine wave in polity - the RJB one.

Yes, I'm counting on at least a mini-wave breaking through at least some of the caste rigidities at least in the heartland. There's a reason why the ground teams in bhajpa are emphasizing booth level mapping and young voter reach-outs. There have been several reports saying that first time voters are less influenced by caste but then are overall less invclined to show up to vote. Heck, even first time jatav voters can be swayed away from mayaben in UP, if the alternative is credible (and NM is nothing if not credible, currently) IMHO.

Chalo, lemme stick my neck out and say this -

1. minimum 30 seat haul from Bihar for BJP. Minimum. Niku'll be left only with the remnants of a moth-eaten kurmi vote bank and zilch else.

2. Again, a 30-35 seat haul in UP at the minimum. Could go all the way to 40+ if purvanchal is sufficiently carpet bombed with wave amplifiers. Again, most surveys are from Aug and before.

3. If the state polls go against the Cong (and looks likely too, maybe) then the Cong's vote bringing capacity (i.e. value add in any coalition) in the heartland diminishes rapidly. Cong ability to play spoiler in UP-bihar becomes negligible. Even the UCs and gubmint servants may desert it, finally.

4. NM outreach has to go to Odisha, Asom, WB (at least north bengal type areas - kishanganj, islampur, maybe coach bear). Try to contest at least the urban seats, poll a respectable %age.

[Hari Seldon]

BTW, this is a case of genuine administration and policy thinking, and coming from a man who doesn't have any serious skeletons in his closets, this kind of thing sounds credible and believable too... will change face of governance if it happens.

Harsh Vardhan promises to put govt decisions, files online

Harsh Vardhan assured IAS officers and other senior bureaucrats of complete freedom to work for the interest of the people, after he assumes power in Delhi.

[niran]

Chalo, lemme stick my neck out and say this -

1. minimum 30 seat haul from Bihar for BJP. Minimum. Niku'll be left only with the remnants of a moth-eaten kurmi vote bank and zilch else.

2. Again, a 30-35 seat haul in UP at the minimum. Could go all the way to 40+ if purvanchal is sufficiently carpet bombed with wave amplifiers. Again, most surveys are from Aug and before.

3. If the state polls go against the Cong (and looks likely too, maybe) then the Cong's vote bringing capacity (i.e. value add in any coalition) in the heartland diminishes rapidly. Cong ability to play spoiler in UP-bihar becomes negligible. Even the UCs and gubmint servants may desert it, finally.

1. the flies from the walls of bhajapa says 33 seats from Bihar, tis was a week ago, before the blasts and NaMo visits to the victims
it also says if a suitable candidate is found loike Shotgoon sinha or Yashwant Sinha then even Nitish babu will be routed in his home constituency, so much for a personal vote bank,

2. UP has according to the count....... are you standing, if so, please sit down, 74 seats, currently ways are being found to
beat Mulaa Yadav Queen Bee Rahul Ghandhi Ajit Singh his whatishis name beta and few others.

yeah! even bhajapa leaders were pooh poohing, rubbishing the above figures, then as the reality is being shown all almost forgets to breath, that is the reason for the over awed looks on bhajapa netas when around NaMo
election is around 160 days from now, the situation is fluid, and works are under going for 120 seats from Bihar and UP the original plan was for 10 youths per booth but due to the overwhelming numbers of new youth volunteers now bhajapa can easily place 35 youth per booth and still there will volunteers to spare.

@ Santoshji moi is onree a simpool worker, not some rally organizer as you think.

[Shanmukh]

1. the flies from the walls of bhajapa says 33 seats from Bihar, tis was a week ago, before the blasts and NaMo visits to the victims
it also says if a suitable candidate is found loike Shotgoon sinha or Yashwant Sinha then even Nitish babu will be routed in his home constituency, so much for a personal vote bank,

2. UP has according to the count....... are you standing, if so, please sit down, 74 seats, currently ways are being found to
beat Mulaa Yadav Queen Bee Rahul Ghandhi Ajit Singh his whatishis name beta and few others.

While this is a little hard to believe from afar, I concede I have no information on the ground. But for this to happen, there would need to be a wave on par with what happened in 1977 (All 80 seats in UP and 52 out of 54 seats in the then Bihar were won by Janata Party. Even the legendary heavyweights like Indira Gandhi, Sanjay Gandhi, and Hemawati Nandan Bahuguna were routed),

yeah! even bhajapa leaders were pooh poohing, rubbishing the above figures, then as the reality is being shown all almost forgets to breath, that is the reason for the over awed looks on bhajapa netas when around NaMo
election is around 160 days from now, the situation is fluid, and works are under going for 120 seats from Bihar and UP the original plan was for 10 youths per booth but due to the overwhelming numbers of new youth volunteers now bhajapa can easily place 35 youth per booth and still there will volunteers to spare.

Can you do a comparison on this Niran-ji? How many people manned the booths for BSP in 2007? Or for SP in 2012? And how many were doing it for the BJP last time it won big in 1998?

[niran]

Can you do a comparison on this Niran-ji? How many people manned the booths for BSP in 2007? Or for SP in 2012? And how many were doing it for the BJP last time it won big in 1998?

no comparison saar, just few nuggets
-this time two cadres per 20 families in cites and 4 per tolla/mohalla in rural areas to make sure people gets themselves registered
and proper Voter's ID issued
-small small gatherings out of the media hungama gatherings by cadres and future netas explaining why NaMo is good and the foe ugly and bad this already has started, have you noticed Varun Gandhi is missing from action? in reality he is doing the above gathering in Mamta didi's citadel out of the lime light, out of the hungama, silently slowly building the base.
-NaMo has decreeded election should be celebrated as a national festival so every one is getting egged on to celebrate by getting out to vote

[ramana]

In Delhi, what are the BSP chances?

Is it allying with INC or AAP?

[Yagnasri]

We assume there is a wave. Hindi tv channels by and large saying there is lot of support. Sustaining it and cacandidate selection, organisation, poll day management is the key now.

[Kanson]

niran saab,

In bajpa circle there is emphasis on Booth level management and it was sounded like euphemism for winning strategy. What is indeed done at booth level? Is that different from other parties' activities? Can't others replicate them?

[Santosh]

I still feel that a Cong-Lalu-Paswan alliance can screw BJP. Yadavs wont desert lalu as long as they think he can win.

THat's the point I have been trying to make to niranji. Paswan has already said that LJP will fight along side UPA. Lalu is in jail and has no option but to tie up. That's about 32% of vote share. Add to that the residual 10% vote Nitish will get. NaMo will have to consolidate every single non-Yadav, non-Kurmi, non-koeri Hindu vote to come through. BSP tie up with Congi will deteriorate the situation further for BJP.

[krishnan]

PC is going to lose Sivaganga big time , unless he does something, people are very irritated , he has done nothing for them.

[chaanakya]

PC is trying to shift.

[Shanmukh]

I still feel that a Cong-Lalu-Paswan alliance can screw BJP. Yadavs wont desert lalu as long as they think he can win.

THat's the point I have been trying to make to niranji. Paswan has already said that LJP will fight along side UPA. Lalu is in jail and has no option but to tie up. That's about 32% of vote share. Add to that the residual 10% vote Nitish will get. NaMo will have to consolidate every single non-Yadav, non-Kurmi, non-koeri Hindu vote to come through. BSP tie up with Congi will deteriorate the situation further for BJP.

In all honesty, Santosh-ji, you are focussing too much on the arithmetic. Only about 75% (at the most) of the vote of any party is transferable. For parties like the Congress, which has no fixed Hindu vote base in the north, it is even less. Also, coalitions and alliances have their own way of generating counter alliances and counter coalitions.

[Yagnasri]

Kason sir, the booth management was there from long periods. We all did that and ginger to much much better this time.

Leave how etc to people involved. Certain things are not discussed in war.

[kapilrdave]

have you noticed Varun Gandhi is missing from action? in reality he is doing the above gathering in Mamta didi's citadel out of the lime light, out of the hungama, silently slowly building the base.

Holy Sh*t!!!

Now who is going to AP and NE states?

Added Later: VG is a perfect person to do this task. He does a lot of damage to congress and likes by his speeches but the dynasty can't go all out after him. Afterall he is a family member so throwing mud on him will tumble some skeletons from their own cupboard as well. Looks like Sanjay G's bhatakti aatma is taking its revenge on dynasty .

BTW, Happy Diwali to all fellow BRFites.

[Sushupti]

A study of socio and political trends in the state of Bihar

http://centreright.in/2013/11/a-study-o ... -of-bihar/

[RajeshA]

have you noticed Varun Gandhi is missing from action? in reality he is doing the above gathering in Mamta didi's citadel out of the lime light, out of the hungama, silently slowly building the base.

Varun Gandhi is best suited to fish for all the Congress people from West Bengal. Those Congis who don't want to join Mamata have nowhere else to go. They can stay in Congress and become redundant and lose meaning or they can opt to jump on an upcoming power in WB and that is BJP.

[Shanmukh]

Two questions for our Tamil Nadu folks.

1 What is the natural base of the BJP in TN? Who should the BJP target?

2 Can the BJP, riding the NaMo wave, hit about 10-15% of the popular vote in Chennai proper? Or maybe in other major towns like Madurai, Coimbatore, Salem, etc?

[Shanmukh]

-small small gatherings out of the media hungama gatherings by cadres and future netas explaining why NaMo is good and the foe ugly and bad this already has started, have you noticed Varun Gandhi is missing from action? in reality he is doing the above gathering in Mamta didi's citadel out of the lime light, out of the hungama, silently slowly building the base.
-NaMo has decreeded election should be celebrated as a national festival so every one is getting egged on to celebrate by getting out to vote

This is fantastic news, Niran-ji. I hope someone is focussing on Assam. This is a state that should be a BJP stronghold. Deft diplomacy, and strong leadership can unite the Bodos, Rajbanshis, Ahoms and Bengalis under the aegis of the BJP. All of them are today divided, which is why Congress keeps winning. Uniting the various groups under the BJP banner will benefit not only the BJP but also the state (BJP will be more vigilant against the Bangladeshis).

[Malayappan]

Two questions for our Tamil Nadu folks.

1 What is the natural base of the BJP in TN? Who should the BJP target?

2 Can the BJP, riding the NaMo wave, hit about 10-15% of the popular vote in Chennai proper? Or maybe in other major towns like Madurai, Coimbatore, Salem, etc?

My bit:

1. State level 4-5% but only 2% will vote for BJP in absence of alliance. Rest will vote tactically for AIADMK. State-level max +3% possible, but doubtful considering previous point.

2. No. 10% appears too high for Chennai! What is possible is a high focus in limited seats - Kanyakumari, Coimbatore and do their best. 2009 they did well in Ramanadhapuram but that was because of Thirunavaukkarasar - nor repeatable.

In the long run they need to build a vote base that will actually vote for them no matter what.

Rest, the Gyanis can take over!

[Shanmukh]

1. State level 4-5% but only 2% will vote for BJP in absence of alliance. Rest will vote tactically for AIADMK. State-level max +3% possible, but doubtful considering previous point.

The BJP already has 2% in TN, saar (well, 1.91%). Is the Modi wave not going to net another 2-3%?

2. No. 10% appears too high for Chennai! What is possible is a high focus in limited seats - Kanyakumari, Coimbatore and do their best. 2009 they did well in Ramanadhapuram but that was because of Thirunavaukkarasar - nor repeatable.

They had 6% in Chennai South and 4% in Chennai North in 2009. Is 10% too much to expect in Chennai this time?

[vivek.rao]

http://www.rediff.com/news/report/all-i ... 131103.htm
All is not well with Arvind Kejriwal's Aam Aadmi Party

Can a single name change politics? The people drawn to Aam Aadmi Party chief Arvind Kejriwal certainly believe so. Nothing, not even slippages in the party’s journey, makes them lose their faith in Kejriwal.

AAP has been busy deciding its candidates for 70 assembly constituencies; in Delhi, only five are yet to be announced. This week, the party’s volunteers from the Sultanpuri constituency were scheduled to select the candidate from five short-listed names.

However, while the party office had a list of active volunteers from the area, the names of many of those who arrived for voting weren’t present on the list. In fact there were two lists -- one maintained by the area coordinator and another by the party office and the two didn’t tally.

The names of many Right to Information activists, as well as those who claimed to have been available at the beck and call of the party for protests and agitations, were absent from the list.

Showing a wound on his wrist, one claimed this had resulted while fixing power connections. While his name was included, his fellow volunteers weren’t. A teacher was included in the list, though he was upset the names of many volunteers brought by him weren’t. Along with others, he questioned the party’s claims of transparency. Some were planning to campaign across the constituency, asking people about their right to reject all candidates.

The party’s list of woes didn’t end here.

To keep track of active volunteers, each seat has one or two coordinators. A coordinator not only accused the party of ignoring his list, but also of allowing volunteers handpicked by a certain candidate to be included, while keeping the others out.

Some alleged a TV channel had already announced the name of a candidate, despite the fact that voting hadn’t begun.

A businessman from Sultanpuri, said, “We are being cheated. Our Congress Member of Legislative Assembly Jaikishan is much better -- at least we know we are being cheated. But here, we are being exploited by a party that has promised to end all exploitation.”

AAP workers in the party office at Kaushambi, including a former journalist and a bank employee, sought to soothe nerves.

“This happens at every meeting of volunteers. We have to verify whether those claiming to be volunteers are from rival parties… If they have received mobile messages, we would let them vote,” they say.

But many haven’t received such messages. A volunteer whose name was excluded, said, “To campaign, I used to go house to house till late in the night; now, my name is not there.”

Another coordinator in Sultanpuri, realised his name wasn’t included in the list. “When there are agitations, all of us get messages. But now, when it is our turn to vote, we get none,” he says.

Would the disgruntled volunteers and coordinators quit? “Why should the party suffer for the mistakes within?” asks a volunteer. He, however, ominously adds, “If wrong candidates are foisted on us, we will ask people to use the right to reject, rather than vote for any of them.”

Another volunteer says, “When genuine volunteers and old volunteers are excluded, it will reflect on the party’s health.