Bharat Rakshak

In my opinion, China's threat is not due laying some train routes or construction of some ports etc. It is China's slow operations around India that are a threat.

(1) The laying of trains, construction of infra is not a big deal to worry but by means of such things, it puts is electronic listening intel with a helping India's border nations. SL for example may sound more friendlier to India but the trust is not there. Everyone around India thinks unless culturally close India is taken care of they are not going to survive. In otherwords, the lack-of-self confdence of these India rim nations is what china takes advantage of. We should be worried about China's intel collecting methodology. India on the other hand does not have similar advantage. Nepal is another scoundrel country.

People can blame India for all these stuff because we did not nurture friendly ties with all these countries. It is also a false statement. We did try beyond any big nation can try. As I said their lack of self-confidence leads to go to someone who is not close to their culture or blood group.

(2) The second major threat is its investment in the border areas of India in terms of infrastructure. India is woefully poor and neglected but when confronted on this issue a lot of folks say that the terrain is helpful to India and hence India does not need to worry. It is again in my opinion a wrong strategy. They are building the stuff to salami slice certain portions of land.

(3) Choking with droughts and floods in India by means of agan infra structure over rivers.

In summary the encirclement is not really to plan some grand attack on India but to choke it in intel and make all the borders friendless.

shiv wrote: Making war with China is not a substitute for good governance.

This! So Much! If BRF allows signitures, I would sig this.

shiv wrote: Making war with China is not a substitute for good governance.

Shiv saar,

Your advice is as follows -
"Work out, do yoga, eat healthy, load up on vitamins and don't miss eating the proverbial apple"
If the patient did that, then no virus or bug can attack the patient.

The key question to ask oneself is why does China want to subdue India?
I have not seen this question answered yet in BRF - just vague hyper realism statement etc. at best.

India (her politicians) maintain that there is room in Asia for both.
However, every action, if not words, from China indicates there is no room.

Pulikeshi wrote:
The key question to ask oneself is why does China want to subdue India?
I have not seen this question answered yet in BRF - just vague hyper realism statement etc. at best.

India (her politicians) maintain that there is room in Asia for both.
However, every action, if not words, from China indicates there is no room.

Is China afraid of India.

Acharya wrote:

Pulikeshi wrote:
The key question to ask oneself is why does China want to subdue India?
I have not seen this question answered yet in BRF - just vague hyper realism statement etc. at best.

India (her politicians) maintain that there is room in Asia for both.
However, every action, if not words, from China indicates there is no room.

Is China afraid of India.

Afraid is too strong of a word. If China is truely afraid, I would think that she will be a bit more proactive than the low intensity pin pricks..etc. China was afriad of the USSR, Mao engineered a famine just to keep the troop's rations topped up.

TonyMontana wrote:

Afraid is too strong of a word. If China is truely afraid, I would think that she will be a bit more proactive than the low intensity pin pricks..etc. China was afriad of the USSR, Mao engineered a famine just to keep the troop's rations topped up.

China was afraid in 1971. It was quiet in 1987. It found it was easy to pass the nuclear weapons and missiles to Pakistan then really face Indian army in the border.

One quote from the Chinese media was that Indian military advances in the last 10 years has troubled Chinese elite and PLA

In the end what will prove to be the downfall for China is their brash attitude and arrogance which comes out clearly in their handling of issues with Japan / S Korea and other countries in ASEAN region. This will move investment from Japan / S Korea and even Taiwan the Indian way . It is for India to use its soft power with these countries to move the investment . We should also use the same approach with countries in our vicinity ( Sri Lanka / Bangladesh / Bhutan / Nepal / Burma ) before they completely succumb to the Chinese threat or charm

Coming back to String of pearls , dont know whether the populace in all these countries is welcoming the Chinese with open arms . In case of Africa , where China has a significant presence in Sudan / Nigeria and other oil / mineral rich countries , the populace has not been so welcoming what with the HAN SUPPERIORITY playing a major factor and images of the Colonial past have already started playing in their minds .

Muppalla wrote:In my opinion, China's threat is not due laying some train routes or construction of some ports etc. It is China's slow operations around India that are a threat.

I would agree. The threat is not that these railways and ports are being built, the threat is because it is China who is building these railways and ports. If a big gunda (China) with whom I have had trouble in past started hobnobbing with other small gundas (Pakistan and Myanmar) in my neighborhood, I would definitely feel threatened. However, if a good guy (say Japan) did the exact same thing, then I would wonder how I can help.

rajum wrote:In the end what will prove to be the downfall for China is their brash attitude and arrogance which comes out clearly in their handling of issues with Japan / S Korea and other countries in ASEAN region. This will move investment from Japan / S Korea and even Taiwan the Indian way . It is for India to use its soft power with these countries to move the investment . We should also use the same approach with countries in our vicinity ( Sri Lanka / Bangladesh / Bhutan / Nepal / Burma ) before they completely succumb to the Chinese threat or charm

They might hate the CCP, but they still love chinese dollars tho. India still need to create for herself a perfered business environment. Business tend to view profit above who you like better. I guess a simple year on year investment stats will show the thrend.

Pulikeshi wrote: The key question to ask oneself is why does China want to subdue India?

er subdue India? Where is china "subduing India"

Assume that I am stupid and explain to me. What is it that you think is "subduing India"

In fact I think China is galvanizing India into waking up. How bad can that be?

Doing yoga and living healthy is better than needless paranoia for something that we should be grateful about. You can add bhajans and poojas of thankfulness to the list you have made.

Folks,

1)The threat represented by the Strings of pearls is not of military domination of India, it is of a loss of influence. The influence is about the mind share of the average man on the street. It is about the false impression being created in the minds of a political leader of the land ( Indian Near Abroad ) that PRC is counterweight to India which can be exploited to keep India of their backs. Once this starts to happen, it is a one way street to active Chines meddling in the internal affairs of the concerned nations on the lines of Nepal and the TSP.

At the moment India has neutral if not good relations with most of the nations in the near abroad. But I request you all you refer to the recent history and actions of these nations (past 60 years ). They still have this irrational fear of the big bad Hindu India. That has not gone away even after almost 60 years of most restrained foreign policy being conducted by any nation.

If the Chines are allowed a foot hold you can rest assured that the scenario I have painted in the first para will cone true sooner rather then later.

Again to me the matter is not about the military utility of the ports and the railway lines ETC being built.

2)Coming from a man who is extremely ignorant of military and strategic history of the world. It seems to me that any power on the strategic offensive wins sooner or later. A power on the defensive if successful will only manage to achieve a draw. Also the defensive power has to win all the time. The power on the offensive has to win only once to get what it wants. Also by being on the offencive it will dictate the terms / pace of the engagement. The time to stay on the strategic defensive is long gone. Its time to be aggressive and persistent in seeking geopolitical ends. If that means $crewing other nations then so be it.

For what is worth.......

Added later,

Shiv, I agree that China has forced India to sit up and take notice, but my interactions with Panwalas has convinced me that the GOI is not ready to take agressive steps to counter the PRC. That they have conceded the point. The issue from today is how to make the GOI to take firm action in order to deal with PRC.

"Is China afraid of India."

One thing is for sure- rarely do you meet a Chinese who says anything articulate or incisive about India. It is all this very blunt, straightforward, earthy stuff. An example: when I mentioned that I'm originally from India, the first thing a certain Chinese said was "They say India is going to pass China in population in about 20 or 30 years" And similar stuff related to curry, the Indian climate, Gandhi, caste system. What you'll never hear is something about Buddhism and the historic ties between India and China that created a two-way traffic in the dissemination of Buddhist philosophy and ideas. Or acknowledging that India, not the US, is the most populous democracy and hence free state in the world at present. Or that India was ahead of China in just about every industry and technology( except nuclear and military related, and even that not fully) until about 25 years ago, or even a little later. Or any understanding of the constraints a multifarious democracy like India operates under, compared to the stroke-of-pen, barrel-of-gun behaviour China displays. And this observation leads to another: the Chinese tend to pick up the crudest of the crude imagery and news about India from Western news agencies, and parrot these. They won't quote from the more balanced, nuanced, sophisticated Western sources. Independent, incisive thought is absent, to repeat the first line.

Varoon Shekhar wrote:"Is China afraid of India."

One thing is for sure- rarely do you meet a Chinese who says anything articulate or incisive about India. It is all this very blunt, straightforward, earthy stuff. An example: when I mentioned that I'm originally from India, the first thing a certain Chinese said was "They say India is going to pass China in population in about 20 or 30 years" And similar stuff related to curry, the Indian climate, Gandhi, caste system. What you'll never hear is something about Buddhism and the historic ties between India and China that created a two-way traffic in the dissemination of Buddhist philosophy and ideas. Or acknowledging that India, not the US, is the most populous democracy and hence free state in the world at present. Or that India was ahead of China in just about every industry and technology( except nuclear and military related, and even that not fully) until about 25 years ago, or even a little later. Or any understanding of the constraints a multifarious democracy like India operates under, compared to the stroke-of-pen, barrel-of-gun behaviour China displays. And this observation leads to another: the Chinese tend to pick up the crudest of the crude imagery and news about India from Western news agencies, and parrot these. They won't quote from the more balanced, nuanced, sophisticated Western sources. Independent, incisive thought is absent, to repeat the first line.

Chinese have been taught about British version of India and its British viewing ruling elite.

Every nation in the Indian near abroad is afraid of the Idea of India and what it represents.

Varoon Shekhar wrote: the ChineseIndians tend to pick up the crudest of the crude imagery and news about IndiaChina from Western news agencies, and parrot these. They won't quote from the more balanced, nuanced, sophisticated Western sources. Independent, incisive thought is absent, to repeat the first line.

Welcome to BRF.

It's like you're saying, what I'm thinking...only replace China with India.

Indian and Chinese are so alike.

May be I am missing something but I do not see what GOI is doing wrong. They are doing everything that they should be doing.

- They are building strategic forces (nukes and missiles)
- They are enhancing conventional forces
- They are adding more mountain divisions
- They are building light APCs just devoted for North East
- They are augmenting heavy lift capacity

Things are going great.

shiv wrote: In fact I think China is galvanizing India into waking up. How bad can that be?

Sir,

That pretty much sums up my concern. Its not China or the Chinese military that I am scared of. My fear is whether our babus are awake and if awake, are the proactive enough to counter such threats.

If you say they are, I will take your word for it. But here are two benchmarks that I will set for my own consumption and watch what happens with respect to this in future: 1) If a chinese base comes up in Indian Ocean region I would take it as the biggest foreign policy disaster equivalent to that "Hindi-Chini bhai-bhai crap", and 2) Whether Sri Lanka rolls back or expands its security hobnobbing with China.

This is not just a military issue in my mind, its both a diplomatic and military issue. Developing military is important, but won't be effective enough if foreign policy is not aggressive or active enough.

If China and India were to start fighting a war in a few weeks from now it would be tragic for both India and China. India is unlikely to get mauled as it did in 1962 and both nations will come out as losers. Both nations will claim victory after a border war.

In fact one of things India is doing (as everyone has noticed) is to spend as little as feasible on the military and as much as possible on development. India's elite - who are now wealthy enough to value their nation are demanding that India should now get stronger. TThat demand is being played off in Indian politics against "development".

If a war were to occur and India should feel that it has come off worse - GoI can kiss goodbye to all "social development" schemes - Naxal area improvement, rural electrification, rural healthcare etc because India will spend the next 20 years rearming itself to defeat China. China in turn will have to contend with a world that has proof of its malintent - other rivals will be scared shitless and will also arm themselves.


If sense prevails on both sides a war will not occur but both sides must prepare for exigencies. Neither side wants to lose a war and for all its bluster the Chinese know that they will not get a walkover against India. And India forces have faced fire continuously - unlike Chinese forces who have been working in army run factories.

I don't see China as hemming India in any more than Indians see themselves as hemmed in by a growing China. What do we propose to do about it? Conduct a yagna? Make war? As Indi expands it is going to feel hemmed in by the US as well. We just haven't opened our eyes wide enough. Credit to the Chinese for doing that first.

Karan,

The issue is not that the GOI is doing great. The Issue is that they are reactive in an area where the PRC is dictating the terms of engagement ought to be.

That is the problem. If the PRC reacted to an Indian provocation or action in its back yard. I will be very happy. But that will never happen.

I think it was Rajesh who said that India has no interests in the Western pacific basin. Similarly the PRC should have no interests in IOR. I agree with him in the IOR part but disagree with him in the western pacific part. It is in Indian Interest to have complete freedom of the seas. If the PRC is in a position to constrain the freedom of the seas, then we must be in a position to contest the same from the PRC or any other power as the case may be.

So I submit that we have an interest in every part of the ocean.



JMT

"Welcome to BRF.

It's like you're saying, what I'm thinking...only replace China with India.

Indian and Chinese are so alike."

It's tempting to say that, but I think not. From Indians, you'll get a mix of sophisticated and not so sophisticated descriptions of China. The balance is not visible from the Chinese side. Also, as Pratyush astutely put it, every country in the neighbourhood is concerned about the "idea of India' and what it represents. Right now, Bangladesh is not overly concerned about India, and that's not because it is some kind of 'satellite' state of India, or because there's an Indian supported dictator. Far from it. It's because Bangladesh is now governed by intelligent people who share more or less similar values as India.

"That is the problem. If the PRC reacted to an Indian provocation or action in its back yard. I will be very happy. But that will never happen."

I hope no one is suggesting that India behave like the politbureau/red army goons and jerks. The Indian 'provocation' should only come as a response to an unfriendly Chinese move. Not as something by itself. The Chinese politbureau, red army, communist party and drone media, are not models for India.

Dhiman wrote:

shiv wrote: In fact I think China is galvanizing India into waking up. How bad can that be?

Sir,

That pretty much sums up my concern. Its not China or the Chinese military that I am scared of. My fear is whether our babus are awake and if awake, are the proactive enough to counter such threats.

If you say they are, I will take your word for it. But here are two benchmarks that I will set for my own consumption and watch what happens with respect to this in future: 1) If a chinese base comes up in Indian Ocean region I would take it as the biggest foreign policy disaster equivalent to that "Hindi-Chini bhai-bhai crap", and 2) Whether Sri Lanka rolls back or expands its security hobnobbing with China.

This is not just a military issue in my mind, its both a diplomatic and military issue. Developing military is important, but won't be effective enough if foreign policy is not aggressive or active enough.

You can expect all this and more to occur but I don't think the Chinese are stupid enough to concentrate on pushing India alone down as much as pulling themselves up. Remember that they now see the US as a rival. We Indians are acting like the smitten girl with buck teeth who imagines the handsome hunk loves her while the handsome hunk is concentrating on getting all girls to love him and is focusing on Miss World USA.

If they concentrate on India alone - India will cause then enough trouble to halt their rise. they are hardly out of the woods yet. The only "weak powers" that suck up to China and are dominated by them are Pakistan and NoKo. Everyone else is either powerful or has other powerful friends.

shiv wrote: Assume that I am stupid and explain to me. What is it that you think is "subduing India"

I know I will not be answering you yet, but that was never perhaps the intent of addressing your comment.
For example I've outlined elsewhere how India has benefited with a friend like China. Quite irrelevant...

However - the infected patient can claim "what me worry" nothing subdues me -
What does not kill me will only make me stronger, thanks for the MRSA infection!

The question was not if and how China is subduing India. Question was why?
As said before, that has still not been addressed.

China is still confounding Indian and many have admitted it as much.
Admiral Raja Menon said it best, "We get the impression that the Chinese don't read Morgantau?"

Good discussion points.

Karan Dixit wrote:May be I am missing something but I do not see what GOI is doing wrong. They are doing everything that they should be doing.

That is precisely the disagreement I think.

- They are building strategic forces (nukes and missiles)

Yes, but lets say we need 'more' -- rapidly -- we will never know for sure but our triad+1 should have been functional already.

+the confusion on TNs dont really help our position.

- They are enhancing conventional forces

NO, a vehement no. Forget the declining number of Sqns, we need to proactively have a 50-60 Sqn IAF. We need to be able to have such a force, that we dont have to think 'twice' about moving into PoK or Afg to secure our interests if need be.

The artillery is a mess.

The infrastructure is doddering.

Right now, we barely can fight a holding two front war.

- They are adding more mountain divisions
- They are building light APCs just devoted for North East
- They are augmenting heavy lift capacity

true, but these are sub points of the above previous points, yes 'more' is being done, but is it enough more?

Things are going great.

Apart from less than enough on the above front, no action is seen on the strategic front.

1) How do we replace Chinese in SL (totally), BD (totally) and Myanmar (Partially), how do we get Nepal firmly back into our orbit (no ISI, no Chinese, no nothing another Bhutan)

2) How do we secure PoK?

3) Game plan for Afg?

4) Ability to hit China from bases far beyond our border? Do we have tie ups with Vietnam? Any bases in and around South China sea?

Varoon Shekhar wrote:"That is the problem. If the PRC reacted to an Indian provocation or action in its back yard. I will be very happy. But that will never happen."

I hope no one is suggesting that India behave like the politbureau/red army goons and jerks. The Indian 'provocation' should only come as a response to an unfriendly Chinese move. Not as something by itself. The Chinese politbureau, red army, communist party and drone media, are not models for India.

There is already a long list of provocations by the Chinese against India.

What has been our move so far?

When and what will be the 'magical' provocation? Short of a Nuke on New Delhi?

Varoon Shekhar wrote: I hope no one is suggesting that India behave like the politbureau/red army goons and jerks. The Indian 'provocation' should only come as a response to an unfriendly Chinese move. Not as something by itself. The Chinese politbureau, red army, communist party and drone media, are not models for India.

The idea is to gain the initative in bilateral ties, currently it is heavely tilted in favour of the PRC. We need to find a way to redress the situation. If that requires India to act like a goon, so be it.

Reacting or reaction is perfectly a normal thing. Thieves they steal. Cops react and arrest thieves. So why such a takleef over GoI reacting? China has a different value system than India. India believes in live and let live. Our response to China will be based on Chinese action because that is how reasonable countries act. We are a reasonable country.

Rahul M wrote:sanku ji, my comment was not based upon any 'hope' that PRC will derail but based on what they have right now and the way they are modernising. pardon me for saying so but I do keep and eye on PLA's capabilities and the scenarios being painted are alarmist to the verge of being ridiculous.

if you think I'm wrong why don't you present your figures for what you think PLAN's force levels will be like in 20-30 years ? just assuming that someone has a ferrari because he is negotiating for garage space is not quite logical.
.

Well unfortunately unlike India, CPC does not present their plans to the Parliament but here goes

China plans major navy expansion
http://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/world/c ... -a8hk.html

China's navy will move faster to build large combat warships, next-generation aircraft and sophisticated torpedoes in a modernising overhaul for fighting in an era of information technology, its commander in chief said.

A New Era for Chinese Naval Expansion
http://www.jamestown.org/programs/china ... no_cache=1

Unprecedented Force Enlargement
In contrast to only four destroyers committed in the 1990s, four were launched in 2003/2004 alone. Below is an incomplete list of new PLAN acquisitions since 2000:



--Two Sovremennyy destroyers (136 Hangzhou and 137 Fuzhou) (2000)

--Two 052B destroyers (168 Guangzhou and 169 Wuhan) (2003)

--Two 052C destroyers (170 Lanzhou and 171 unknown) (2004)

--One 051C destroyer (115) (December 2004)

--054 frigates 525 & 526 (2003) [1].

The Chinese naval expansion, threat to Vietnam and India
http://www.indiandefencereview.com/2010 ... india.html

Some Thoughts On The Suggested PLA Navy Expansion
http://www.informationdissemination.net ... -navy.html

Based on the numbers provided by China Defense Mashup blog, it looks to me like the PLA Navy will be building at least 10 major warships and submarines annually for the next 3 years. That would assume 3 aircraft carriers (1 is ex-Varyag), 7 LPDs, 14 destroyers and frigates, 3 nuclear submarines, and 3 conventional submarines (an all-time low production of only one nuclear and one conventional submarine a year). In other words, it could be more like 12-13+ ships per year if submarine production is higher and depending upon the number of logistics ships built.

Karan Dixit wrote:Reacting or reaction is perfectly a normal thing. Thieves they steal. Cops react and arrest thieves. So why such a takleef over GoI reacting?

The takleef is that its NOT reacting.

China has a different value system than India. India believes in live and let live. Our response to China will be based on Chinese action because that is how reasonable countries act. We are a reasonable country.

Nice

Pulikeshi wrote:
The question was not if and how China is subduing India. Question was why?

China is still confounding Indian and many have admitted it as much.
Admiral Raja Menon said it best, "We get the impression that the Chinese don't read Morgantau?"

There is nobody to take on India and the Indian population in the world. That is why they have to.
That is their destiny. They have to confront Indians

The point is, if we know the guy next door is going to cut you throat. What is it we are going to do?

Build a wall and stay at home all the time leaving him alone thereby constraining our freedom of movement or take him down using what ever means necessary to preserve you way of live and the safety of our family.

If that means acting like a thug then so be it. As in the end it is the future of our great country that is at stake. Also remember the lesson from Gita. Arjun must act without fear, affection or pity.

That is his dharma.

Acharya wrote: There is nobody to take on India and the Indian population in the world. That is why they have to.
That is their destiny. They have to confront Indians

There is value in looking it as a "must climb the mountain because it is there" problem.
However, most of China's actions are related to internal forces as much as external ones.

China currently is at maximal land area that forces it to act in certain ways with its neighbors.
The internal unrest and disparity in wealth distribution causes other forces requiring external bugaboo.
Demographics and geography force other constraints on China as it does on India.

Finally, it will be interesting to understand for ex the relationship between Song and Chola dynasties.
Relationship between Mongolia and Tibet via the Yuan dynasty. Lack of evidence for Chinese claim over Tibet.
Work forward into the challenges China sees with a India that is an inheritor of British India's foreign policies.
Several things about India waves a red flag at the dragon - so who reacted to who!
We already have enough meat to cook into a short article...

Pratyush wrote:The point is, if we know the guy next door is going to cut you throat. What is it we are going to do?

Build a wall and stay at home all the time leaving him alone thereby constraining our freedom of movement or take him down using what ever means necessary to preserve you way of live and the safety of our family.

If that means acting like a thug then so be it. As in the end it is the future of our great country that is at stake. Also remember the lesson from Gita. Arjun must act without fear, affection or pity.

That is his dharma.

That seems a strategy that should be applied to TSP, I'm not sure if China can be classified as the guy next door who is hell bent on cutting your throat. OTOH, your definition fits perfectly for TSP.

See the actions of PRC, Giving Nuke to TSP along with the dilivery systems, the capture and suppression of tibet, the attack of 1962, claims on Arunachal Pradesh, occupation of Aksi Chin. It is the power behind the TSP. This inspite of Indian Panchsheel for them. We gave them a US sec council seat. For what in return please tell us.

Tell me who is worst TSP or the power behind TSP. Why is the PRC not intent on outting India down

Pulikeshi wrote:
The question was not if and how China is subduing India. Question was why?

It is not money that they find attractive, nor do they care about intellectual property, private ownership, innovation, creativity, or creative freedom. What they care about, understand, and strive for is "power" and "respect" where "respect" is directly dependent on "power" that one has. The country (China) is setup and governed on the basis of power, the more power you have in the hierarchy the more respect you have and the better your ability to gain more power and hence improve your status, position, and respect in society. At least that is my understanding of the situation.

So, maybe they think that South Asia is an easy place to get that power unless somebody convinces them otherwise or makes their job more difficult

Pulikeshi wrote:

Acharya wrote: There is nobody to take on India and the Indian population in the world. That is why they have to.
That is their destiny. They have to confront Indians

There is value in looking it as a "must climb the mountain because it is there" problem.
However, most of China's actions are related to internal forces as much as external ones.

Expansion is a must for such states. They have no other choices. India is "there". Just being there is a target,

Finally, it will be interesting to understand for ex the relationship between Song and Chola dynasties.
Relationship between Mongolia and Tibet via the Yuan dynasty. Lack of evidence for Chinese claim over Tibet.
Work forward into the challenges China sees with a India that is an inheritor of British India's foreign policies.
Several things about India waves a red flag at the dragon - so who reacted to who!
We already have enough meat to cook into a short article...

China has been told that only India can break current China for guarantee.

Sanku wrote:

Rahul M wrote:sanku ji, my comment was not based upon any 'hope' that PRC will derail but based on what they have right now and the way they are modernising. pardon me for saying so but I do keep and eye on PLA's capabilities and the scenarios being painted are alarmist to the verge of being ridiculous.

if you think I'm wrong why don't you present your figures for what you think PLAN's force levels will be like in 20-30 years ? just assuming that someone has a ferrari because he is negotiating for garage space is not quite logical.
.

.........

sanku ji, I don't need a hastily collected set of articles to tell me what PLAN is up to, one of which quotes chine-defense-mashup as a authoritative source !

you still haven't answered the question, what do you think PLAN's forces would be in the next 20-30 years and how much of that force will they be able to spare for IOR ?
heck, that may be a difficult question but this one should be easier, how many major (as in ocean-going) capital assets has the PLAN inducted in the last decade ?

Sorry Rahul I have answered the question about projected strength of Chinese Navy, based on a variety of open source information.

If you think there are better, perhaps you can point me to some open source material answering the same question?

(Note -- the prior period is largely irrelevant, since by all accounts China is embarking on a new program, and China has demonstrated discontinuous growth in a variety of capital acquisition in many spheres)

Rahul/ Sanku,

I can't say for certain how many ships the PLAN will have in the next 20-30 years. But it will be prudent for the IN to plan that the PLAN will be having the same number of modern capital ships / Subs in that time frame as they have today. At the very least. Plus a few aircraft carriers.

It is India's own expansion that is putting it on a collision course with China. The sooner we realise that we will be on a collision course with the US as well - the better it will be for us.

Imagine there was no India at all and there was only Himalayas and the Indian ocean beyond that. For convenience imagine that the mountains are so high that China cannot reach the ocean across the mountains to its south. All other countries exist. In such a situation China would still try to get its oil via Myanmar or Pakistan. It would still need good relations or a base in Sri Lanka. In other words India is not necessary for China to desire a new oil route or have naval bases in the Indian ocean. China would have done all this and none of these small nations - Myanmar, Sri Lanka or even Prostitutistan would have challenged the might of the PRC

But India exists and Indians are seeing China's presence as a challenge. And Indians are not taking the attitude of a Sri Lanka or a Myanmar. You don't see Lanka Rakshak forum or Myanmar Rakshak forum asking for rapid expansion in the military to counter China. Indians think they are big enough to challenge China and believe they want to challenge China. That is part and parcel of the challenge for China..

If China wants a base in Sri Lanka it is nominally a China-Sri Lanka affair. But it's not as simple as that - as recorded in this paper by an Indian naval officer
http://www.maritimeindia.org/pdfs/Chine ... %20Feb.pdf

‘String of Pearls’ in the Indian Ocean. The Bangladeshi and Myanmarese ports in the Bay of
Bengal may be too out of the way from the standard transit routes to the Arabian Sea and hence
may not be suitable in the current Chinese scheme of things. This leaves China with an option of
establishing a military base either in Sri Lanka (Galle/ Hambantotta) or Pakistan (Gwadar/Pasni).

While the Sri Lankan ports do lie astride the Arabian Sea transit route, they would still be
well far away (about 2000 NM) from the current scene of action. Further, the moot question will
be whether Sri Lanka would want to risk antagonizing a close and large neighbour like India, to
which it is geo-politically and inseparably linked, by allowing China to set up a naval base on its
territory.

The next best option for China would then be Pakistan, for evident reasons, i.e. close Sino-
Pak economic and military association as against the uncertain India-Pak relations. Pakistan and
China also share the land borders, through which such a base can be supported reasonably well.
However, such a base would suffer from certain inherent disadvantages when seen from a
maritime perspective. The base would be too close to India and would be well within the range of
Indian naval surveillance and strike envelope. It could also be susceptible to blockade, as was
witnessed off Karachi Port during the 1971 Indo-Pak conflict. Further, the Chinese warships
repeatedly transiting to and from ports in Pakistan would be prone to intrusive monitoring,
signature profiling, tracking and trailing by the Indian Navy, due to the very nature of their
passage constraints.

Beyond the ‘String of Pearls’?

There are however, other options for China, if one were to digress a little from the ‘String of
Pearls’ construct. The various islands of Maldives and Seychelles present a range of opportunities
for a country which seeks to maintain a holistic maritime presence in the Indian Ocean Region, as
it would offset all the abovementioned disadvantages associated with the Sri Lankan and Pakistani
ports. China has been actively wooing both, Maldives and Seychelles with offer of economic
assistance, infrastructure development and liberal financial loans / grants. There have been
unconfirmed reports of Maldives having leased ‘Marao atoll’ to China for constructing a naval
base.

However, India and Maldives share very strong bilateral relations built on sizeable
economic, security and social cooperation. India had provided security support in foiling a coup
attempt against the Maldivian Government in November 1988 in an operation named ‘Op Cactus’.
More recently, India handed over a fast patrol craft to the Maldivian Coast Guard in 2006. The
Indian Defence Minister, A K Antony visited Maldives in August 2009 and initiated a series of
measures to enhance defense cooperation. India has promised to transfer two ‘Dhruv’ helicopters,
26 coastal radars and regular Dornier patrol sorties over the island nation as part of the security
plan. India will also set up a 25 bed military hospital in Male and assist in setting up the Maldivian
Air Force. Thus the geographical proximity of Maldives to India as also its close political ties, will
pose the same dilemma to Maldives as applicable to Sri Lanka., if it were to consider the basing of
Chinese ships on its territory. The Chinese leadership would surely take these factors into account,
when they mull over the ‘military base’ issue.

Therefore, in the opinion of the analyst, a base in Seychelles, which is virtually in the centre of the West
Indian Ocean and the focus of the current Chinese maritime activities, would be more appropriate for the
Chinese Navy.

But set aside this naval bases question and look at the worlds resources.

India and China are collectively beginning to have a big enough effect on world oil prices. Guess whom this causes greatest takleef for? Those who laugh at the idea that the world is big enough for Indian and China should die laughing when they ask themselves if the world is big enough for India, China and the US. It is sheer blindnes for Indians to fail to see that the US's actions in this game are crucial. China may have no love lost for India, and may wish to challenge the US but China's reality is that the US is very much restricting Chinas freedom of maneuver in Taiwan. And the US in the past gave "permission" for China to support Pakistan against India. Guess who does not mind provoking an India China spat? After all the US can squeeze Pakistan's left ball and ask them to vacate Chinese mining companies from POK - but why should the US do that.

The US wants freedom in AfPak. Pakistan says India is breathing down her neck. How to get India off Pakistan's neck? China of course. Provoke border tension between China and India. Get India to mobilize against China and then get prostitutistan to do the USs work. How convenient that Indians are suddenly doing dhoti shivering after a New York times report - that fortress of modern day Anglo Saxon power and control over English reading Indian intellectuals.

At least one hand has to quit jerking off and reach for the thinking cap.