Bharat Rakshak

Meanwhile, Jo Lahore mein G*ndu woh Oregon mein bhi....

http://abcnews.go.com/US/wireStory/ore- ... n-18661910

Apparently the paki was working in pakistan treatment plant.

I was thinking, given the high profile nature of the intended target( Times Square), the likelihood of large casualties, and the fact that it would have been the 2nd 'successful' attack against New York city, a very different response would have followed. Not the usual platitudes and game playing. How would the American government answered their own people, particularly those of New York?

http://www.southasiaanalysis.org/node/1192
Will Pakistan Collapse?

nothing new for BRFites.
The question should be When ?
oh and the answer is YES AoA.

Musharraf to ‘return on 17th’

LAHORE – Close aides of Pervez Musharraf deciding a surprise landing by the former strongman on March 17, have also managed a ‘green signal’ from a powerful establishment quarter regarding his safe return, TheNation has learnt.

Pervez Musharraf who founded All Pakistan Muslim League (APML) to launch his political career sometime ago had also made a similar announcement for his return in January, 2012, however deferred his plan after not getting assurances from the powerful quarters at home and international power players.

Though, it is difficult even for the close associates of Musharraf to predict the exact role of their boss in the politics of the country, yet they have got assurance from the meaningful forces that he would be given due opportunity to launch himself during the interim setup.

Close aides of the former president, talking to this correspondent on Tuesday, claimed that APML chief was most likely to make a surprise landing on March 17 at Karachi, the day caretaker setup expected to be announced after the completion of the term of the incumbent government on March 16.

Yup date and place is announced, is there any mard a momin of Bugti, lal topi (masjid) or ten percenti clan who can use lever jam or explode fuse in camandus mushraf?

jash_p wrote:Musharraf to ‘return on 17th’

More likely Musharraf to "come"/ejaculate on 17th.

Varoon Shekhar wrote:I was thinking, given the high profile nature of the intended target( Times Square), the likelihood of large casualties, and the fact that it would have been the 2nd 'successful' attack against New York city, a very different response would have followed. Not the usual platitudes and game playing. How would the American government answered their own people, particularly those of New York?

Varoon Shekhar ji you're missing the point.

The Times Square incident was a 400% scam from the get-go... what we used to call in Bambaiya Hindi a "hool". Meaning like if you're walking along the road and I aim my bike directly at you and come straight towards you to scare you, swerving away at the last second with inches to spare.

The ISI perpetrated this "hool" on the GOTUS knowing exactly how it was going to go down. They trained and planted Faisal Shehzad as an operative, and facilitated his mission until the last minute. At the same time they ensured that DHS was alerted just in time to stop the event and arrest Shehzad. Clearly, while the ISI used all necessary expertise to maintain Shehzad's cover until the last minute, they also made sure that this son of a RAPE never actually learned how to build a working explosive device: something that even lafangaa Pakis of the LeJ and TTP can manage to do quite well on a weekly basis. Even an averagely skilled IED maker would have produced something more lethal than Shehzad's fizzle, had he been intended to do so.

Faisal Shehzad was never intended to carry out a successful terrorist attack on New York, but to be caught in the attempt at the last minute. His "bomb" was never meant to go off. The whole event was staged to send a message from the ISI to Unkil: "look what we can do to you, and look how helpless you would be without our cooperation."

And of course, true-to-form, Unkil heard the message and blinked. Unkil's great and terrible revenge was to drop his pants and sh!t a couple of billion dollars, plus F-16s, AMRAAMs, destroyers, Harpoon missiles, P3C Orions etc. etc. into the TSPA arsenal.

shiv wrote:

jash_p wrote:Musharraf to ‘return on 17th’

More likely Musharraf to "come"/ejaculate on 17th.

Should we start a countdown to Coitus Musharrafus?

Rudradev:

IIRC the first thing which Shezad said after being arrested in the plane was "What took you so long?".
He left ample trail then waited for a few days before leaving.
He did it to be caught.

rudradev saar.

itni conspiracy theory kyon? i dont think thats true, about the hool bit.

why cant a terrorist just be a terrorist and hate america

We've heard of handlers in Pakistan plotting an attack on foreign soil. Here we have an ethnic Pakistani handler in the US directing an attack on Paki soil!

A Paki American who colluded in the bombing of Pakistan's intelligence HQ in Lahore is likely to face a life sentence after a speedy trial.

US: Pakistani American man in Oregon charged with helping bomber in Pakistan

FBI agents on Tuesday arrested a Portland city worker on allegations that he provided support to a suicide bomber who participated in a 2009 attack in Pakistan that killed about 30 people and injured another 300.

Reaz Qadir Khan, 48, was arrested at his home and charged with one count of conspiracy to provide material support to terrorists, U.S. Attorney Amanda Marshall said. He pleaded not guilty later in the day in federal court, The Oregonian reported.

Khan is a wastewater treatment plant operator for the city of Portland.

If convicted, Khan faces a potential sentence of life in prison.

An indictment unsealed Tuesday alleges the naturalized U.S. citizen provided advice and financial help to Ali Jaleel, one of three people who carried out the attack at Pakistan's intelligence headquarters in Lahore.

Jaleel died in the attack. He took responsibility for the bombing in a video released by al-Qaida, and was shown at a training camp, Marshall said.

"The events of May 27, 2009, remind us that terrorism is not defined by Muslims targeting non-Muslims, but is defined by violent extremists targeting anyone they perceive as a threat to their oppressive agenda," Marshall said.

According to the indictment, Khan conspired with Jaleel and others starting in December 2005.

Jaleel allegedly emailed Khan in 2008 about his plan to travel to Pakistan. Two years earlier, Jaleel had been part of a small group from the Maldives that tried to enter Pakistan for training, but was detained, returned home and placed under house arrest.

Khan, the indictment states, instructed Jaleel on how to avoid detection and offered to help with financial arrangements.

In October 2008, Jaleel wrote that he needed $2,500. According to the indictment, Khan contacted someone in Los Angeles who arranged to have the money waiting for Jaleel in Karachi, Pakistan.

Jaleel wrote to Khan the following month, saying he was about to enter training camp and did not need all the money. Khan allegedly told Jaleel to keep the money so it could be sent to Jaleel's two wives in the Maldives.

Shortly after the suicide attack, Khan wired almost $750 from an Oregon store to one of Jaleel's wives, the indictment states.

Pakistan is victim of American grown non state actors onlee

MB sir,

mahadevbhu wrote:itni conspiracy theory kyon? i dont think thats true, about the hool bit.

Ismay tho conspiracy theory ki kyaa jaroorat hai? This is simply how all the ISI-backed terrorist plots against the US have played out, since 9/11.

From Jose Padilla (Pakistan trained) to Shahawar Matin Siraj (Paki) to Faisal Shehzad (Paki) to Rezwanul Ahsan (Bangladeshi)... not even one of them has come close to succeeding, but all of them got as far as they did on the strength of the ISI.

The only terrorist who actually came within a few seconds of conducting a successful attack on the US, in all these years, was the underwear bomber Umar Abdulmutallab. He successfully brought working explosives on a plane and then failed at the last second while trying to light his underwear on fire. He differs from Faisal Shehzad and all these other dummies in that he was run by Al-Awlaki's AQAP out of Somalia... not by the ISI. In fact, he had never been to Pakistan. Therefore, unlike these others, he was probably meant to actually succeed in blowing up that airliner. And it was through sheer luck that he failed.

In contrast: every single ISI operation in the US after 9/11 has been a hool onlee. To me there's no other conceivable reason why none of them has managed to cause any damage at all... unless one accepts that the DHS is 400% infallible, always gets their man, but simply happens to prefer the methodology of a grand Hollywood climax (like in "Twenty Four" onlee.)

Your privilege to think otherwise, of course.

mahadevbhu wrote:why cant a terrorist just be a terrorist and hate america

Where did I say he was not a terrorist or that he did not hate America? The most convincing dummies are the ones who really believe in the cause they're supposed to be representing.

Rudradev wrote:

In contrast: every single ISI operation in the US after 9/11 has been a hool onlee. To me there's no other conceivable reason why none of them has managed to cause any damage at all... unless one accepts that the DHS is 400% infallible, always gets their man, but simply happens to prefer the methodology of a grand Hollywood climax (like in "Twenty Four" onlee.)

Arrey. Thats where I think that the CT of hool is a little bit too much. The ISI gains nothing by not allowing a terrorist plot to get through. What will the US do? Bomb the Pakis?
They have had enough reason to do so up until now and have not done it. OTOH, if a bomb plot goes through, the USA will stay in the region for that much more time and spend that much more money on bribing the PAK Army to find the culprits:-- The Pak Army's main raison d'etre is to create such an atmosphere of fear and terror, such that it gets money from the Pak budget, and protection money from the US to allow supplies to Afghanistan and CIA spies inside Pakistan.

The thing is. That the CIA has penetrated the Pakis left right and center. I would not be surprised to know that some of the top men in the TSPA have a safehouse and a greencard waiting for them in the states. Musharrafs son, for example, is a pretty successful banker in Manhattan.

And this is what allows the Americans to prevent terror plots like they did in some of the above. Pure investigation and spooky strength.

the TSPA want the US army out to declare victory against another superpowerr at home, but will continue to bring begging bowl to washington to ask for alms as the shield of uncle sam against the wild tribes of the desert

Rudradev wrote: The Times Square incident was a 400% scam from the get-go... what we used to call in Bambaiya Hindi a "hool". Meaning like if you're walking along the road and I aim my bike directly at you and come straight towards you to scare you, swerving away at the last second with inches to spare.

The ISI perpetrated this "hool" on the GOTUS knowing exactly how it was going to go down. They trained and planted Faisal Shehzad as an operative, and facilitated his mission until the last minute. At the same time they ensured that DHS was alerted just in time to stop the event and arrest Shehzad. Clearly, while the ISI used all necessary expertise to maintain Shehzad's cover until the last minute, they also made sure that this son of a RAPE never actually learned how to build a working explosive device: something that even lafangaa Pakis of the LeJ and TTP can manage to do quite well on a weekly basis. Even an averagely skilled IED maker would have produced something more lethal than Shehzad's fizzle, had he been intended to do so.

Faisal Shehzad was never intended to carry out a successful terrorist attack on New York, but to be caught in the attempt at the last minute. His "bomb" was never meant to go off. The whole event was staged to send a message from the ISI to Unkil: "look what we can do to you, and look how helpless you would be without our cooperation."

And of course, true-to-form, Unkil heard the message and blinked. Unkil's great and terrible revenge was to drop his pants and sh!t a couple of billion dollars, plus F-16s, AMRAAMs, destroyers, Harpoon missiles, P3C Orions etc. etc. into the TSPA arsenal.

Maybe.

But there are bigger things that have happened.

For example, as is well known, the guy who financed Mohammad Atta to do 9/11 is a retired ISI general presently living comfortably in his Islamabad bungalow. The "US" is perfectly happy to let him be. This was what had initially piqued one's curiosity some 5 or 6 years back.

Sometimes there are important signals in seemingly trivial incidents -

Gregory (Scotland Yard detective): "Is there any other point to which you would wish to draw my attention?"
Holmes: "To the curious incident of the dog in the night-time."
Gregory: "The dog did nothing in the night-time."
Holmes: "That was the curious incident."

Then, when one starts looking, one sees many other clues strewn everywhere.

The solution to the mystery, is, of course, in this thread, but most folks will absolutely refuse to digest it.

Rudradev wrote:

shiv wrote: More likely Musharraf to "come"/ejaculate on 17th.

Should we start a countdown to Coitus Musharrafus?

I will do the honours

You can even watch it in person, for a low low fee of $2,500 you can travel with Tush-a-rough to the Commode:

http://musharraf-dubai-dinner.eventbrite.com/

The following 4 levels of participation are available:
1. $2500 - Confirmed one-way seat on the plane carrying General Musharraf from Dubai to Paksitan. (Includes invitation to photo opportunity, reception & dinner in Dubai the night before departure)
2. $1000 - Dinner, reception, photo opportunity in Dubai with General Musharraf the night before his departure.
3. $500 - Reception & photo opportunity in Dubai with General Musharraf the night before his departure.
4. $250 - Hand-shake & photo opportunity in Dubai with General Musharraf the night before his departure,

You can even watch it in person, for a low low fee of $2,500 you can travel with Tush-a-rough to the Commode:

http://musharraf-dubai-dinner.eventbrite.com/


Quote:
The following 4 levels of participation are available:
1. $2500 - Confirmed one-way seat on the plane carrying General Musharraf from Dubai to Paksitan. (Includes invitation to photo opportunity, reception & dinner in Dubai the night before departure)
2. $1000 - Dinner, reception, photo opportunity in Dubai with General Musharraf the night before his departure.
3. $500 - Reception & photo opportunity in Dubai with General Musharraf the night before his departure.
4. $250 - Hand-shake & photo opportunity in Dubai with General Musharraf the night before his departure,

5.priceless !!! also enjoy 72s with Mushy (if by chance some mango crates appear in plane)

Vinasha kale vipareeta Buddhi! . I hope he goes.

saravana wrote:You can even watch it in person, for a low low fee of $2,500 you can travel with Tush-a-rough to the Commode:

http://musharraf-dubai-dinner.eventbrite.com/...

I took the liberty of copying and pasting the itinerary of General Musharraf's guided tour to Pakistan:

Day 1:

Morning: Quick introduction to Pakistani ethos and history via a one hour screening of "Jo Lahore Mein G@@ndu"

Lunch Menu: Main course of barbecued Ahmadiyya, choice of loin or thigh.

Evening: Tour of mansions of the Pakistani rich and famous, ending with the Waziristan Haveli in Abbotabad. Ignore any stealth helicopters hovering, they will never catch Monsieur Laden.

Day 2:

Morning: Group dance by the avant garde street group The Jacket Munnas. Note: viewers are advised to not get too close to performers, as the ending of the show is guaranteed to be quite boisterous.

Lunch Menu: Fried Shi'a

Evening Interactive Lecture by the Pakistani Erwin Rommel, General Musharraf, titled "Downhill skiing for dummies". Audience is encouraged to participate in the singing of "Oh! Oh! Oh!, Down the mountain we go!" at the end of the lecture.

Day 3:

Morning: Non-interactive lecture by Dr Abdul Qadeer Khan on history of Pakistani technological and scientific innovation from 4500 BC up to the present. Audiences are strictly forbidden from photocopying Dr Khan's lecture notes.

Lunch Menu: Boiled Hindu (quantities may be limited as this is an increasingly rare commodity)

Evening Put on your dancing shoes and join us in the show stopping performance of "Pi$$ on an Ahmadiyya's grave"

Day 4:

Morning: Tour survivors will be GUBOed. All day, no time off for lunch.

Yeh GUbogiri, Humm Nahi chorrenge, CHahe ho911 Bhi , Ashna Nahi Chorrenege

US will not disengage from the region, says Olson

Richard Olson, US Ambassador to Pakistan, said on Wednesday that 2014 is not an exit year for the United States and that the US will not disengage from the region.
In a speech at a conference on the situation in Afghanistan post-2014 at the National University of Modern Languages, Ambassador Richard Olson stated that “2014 is not an exit. It is a continuation of a long-term commitment and engagement with the Afghan people. 2014 is not 1989. The United States will not disengage from the region.”Ambassador Olson noted that, “The international community’s financial and political commitment, and the nearly $20 billion in pledges for security and development assistance that have already been made through 2024, stands out as a defining difference between 2014 and 1989. The United States, and nations across the globe, have unambiguously committed to Afghanistan’s future.”,” Ambassador Olson recalled. “The U.S. role is to help advance such a process, including by supporting an office in Qatar, where negotiations can take place between the Afghan High Peace Council and authorized representatives of the Taliban.” Ambassador Olson also reiterated the United States commitment to a cooperative and long-term partnership with Pakistan. “The U.S. relationship with Pakistan is not shaped solely by our commitments and responsibilities in Afghanistan. This partnership is far broader than any one issue, and centered on areas of mutual interest,” he said. “It is not dictated solely by the requirements of today, but rooted in the joint realization that the security and prosperity of our peoples is better served when we remain engaged, and cooperate.”nations across the globe, have unambiguously committed to Afghanistan’s future.For Pakistan, supporting progress toward peace in Afghanistan is not a matter of altruism, but is instead a critical sovereign interest.".He assured that the United States will remain committed to ensuring a stable and peaceful Afghanistan. And we will continue to view the U.S.-Pakistan partnership as one of critical and growing importance. We will also maintain cooperation with Pakistan in our joint efforts to counter extremism, combat terrorism, and protect both our peoples from the scourge of senseless violence.There is much more to be said about all that we can do together. We have a chance to decide together how to capitalize on the opportunities before us, he added.

Rudradev ji,

I think your "conspiracy" theory is fairly sensible. First there are the staged "almost-successful" attacks by the ISI on US soil, which the US intelligence agencies thwart and prove to the American public what a great job they're doing and how important the war on terror is. But I just posted a case of how the US takes swift action (swifter than other pending terror cases) on a Paki American who helped bomb Paki Intel HQ in Lahore: http://forums.bharat-rakshak.com/viewto ... 8#p1420578

So I believe the US and Pakis do one another favours, keeping their intel apparatus in tact and using the occasional fireworks and even animosity it generates to control their public opinion. But they won't tolerate any actual harm to their intel apparatus itself. And Headley after all was a "double agent", although a "joint" operative is a better way of describing it given the CIA's "plausible deniability" policy.

mahadevbhu wrote:

Arrey. Thats where I think that the CT of hool is a little bit too much. The ISI gains nothing by not allowing a terrorist plot to get through.

On the contrary boss. What I have called "hool" has been an instrument of modern statecraft for decades if not centuries: a calibrated demonstration of one's capability to harm the adversary.

Consider the cold war. How was it fought? The proxy conflicts such as Vietnam, Korea and Afghanistan were only one aspect. Calibrated capability demonstrations, by the US and the Soviets directly against each other, occurred frequently and regularly. Every so often one side would send a new aircraft or submarine to intrude undetected deep within the enemy's territory, and then leave a calling card. Heavy concentrations of armoured divisions would suddenly materialize on borders in lightning mobilization "exercises". In the field of espionage/intel/infiltration, especially, these kinds of demonstrations were constantly going on.

There are big advantages to "hool". First, it tests the preparedness of the adversary. Second, it sends a powerful deterrent message: "I am able to hurt you in an unanticipated way, hence I control the escalation ladder. I have more options than you." Such a message both demoralizes the enemy and makes him more likely to get on the defensive, lose initiative and bend to your will. Yet, it is done without actually crossing the line of causing physical or economic damage, hence it stops short of forcing a response in kind.

Of course there are risks with playing "hool" as the American P3C Orion crew found out over Hainan Island... or, on a larger scale, as played out during the Cuban Missile crisis. Calibration of the demonstration has to be very careful, and even then may get out of hand. But played successfully it has immense value.

The ISI gains a lot from "hools"... it convinces the US that civilian targets can be harmed on its own soil, and further, that the US has no option but to rely on the ISI itself in order to avoid such harm. Yet, by not actually allowing a terrorist attack to succeed, the ISI doesn't risk the probability that a massive outburst of public opinion may force a change in US policy. This kind of calibrated demonstration aims to contain the US' range of options... not force the US to explore new ones.

What will the US do? Bomb the Pakis?

ISI can't take that risk. They didn't take that risk on 9/13/2001, when Armitage told Musharraf that Pakistan would be bombed to the stone age if it didn't cooperate with the US. ISI has to calibrate the demonstration so as to minimize the risk. That's why their terrorist plants invariably fail.

They have had enough reason to do so up until now and have not done it.

No, they have calculated so far that the benefits of bombing do not outweigh the loss of whatever cooperation they can get from ISI. They may be wrong in that calculation, but it's the only reason why they have not done it. Ultimately a long war is about keeping as many options open as possible, until you are forced to discard some of them. Bombing would mean that the US discards a certain proportion of its options.

The Pak Army's main raison d'etre is to create such an atmosphere of fear and terror, such that it gets money from the Pak budget, and protection money from the US to allow supplies to Afghanistan and CIA spies inside Pakistan.

By giving hools, the Pak Army gets whatever it wants from the US without risking an overt hostile response from the US. Enough of an atmosphere of terror is created, just by infiltrating the terrorists into the US and letting the DHS find out in the nick of time just how close they came to being attacked. An actual attack isn't necessary, and would increase the risks to Pakistan. Game it and see.

If you look at the history of the AfPak conflict, you will see that these "hools" came into play at a certain time.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_fo ... ted_States

You can see that they pick up around 2004 (3 incidents in one year), and show intensity peaks in 2005 (4 incidents), 2006 (4 incidents), 2009 (5 incidents) and 2011-12 (5 incidents).

Correlate these to events in the AfPak conflict.

2001-2003: Musharraf was delivering a number of "Al Qaeda #3s" like Khalid Sheikh Mohammed, etc. to the Americans. During this period the ISI was giving sanctuary to Taliban leadership such as the Quetta Shura, but less effective sanctuary to the AlQ leadership. Furthermore, ISI were not yet actively abetting cross-border attacks by the Taliban into Afghanistan.

2003: Massive resentment built up in TSPA/ISI against Musharraf's policies. This started in late 2002, when the US leaned on Musharraf to cut down J&K terrorism after Parakram... and Musharraf complied. Attempts on Musharraf's life began to occur in 2003, prompting him to change course.

2004: Marked change in Pakistan's GWOT policy. Flow of Al Qaeda #3s dried up. Also, the US invasion of Iraq gave the AlQ/Taliban a morale boost which inspired them to take the fight into Afghanistan against under-resourced US forces. The "hool" front begins to open up.

2005-6: AlQ/Talib attacks into Afghanistan from within Pakistani soil began in earnest. This is when we see the "hool" front becoming more intense also. Such capability demonstrations are the ISI's insurance policy against US pressure to restrain Taliban attacks from Pakistani soil.

2007: Lal Masjid incident marks the beginning of the end for Musharraf, and also marks the beginnings of an anti-Islamabad TTP's ascendancy. The "hool" front becomes a little quieter as the TSPA/ISI also begin to feel the heat of cross-border attacks originating in Afghanistan.

2008-9: With the ascendancy of Obama to US Presidency, the use of drone strikes increases exponentially. Meanwhile, a new order of Kiyani/Pasha takes over in Islamabad... new generals who must show that they will not be cowed. Concurrently, in 2009, major "hool" begins to happen as well!

2010: There is a lull. The Faisal Shehzad incident, although dramatically publicized, seems to be an outlier. The only other incident in this year involves a Paki trying to blow up a train station in Virginia. Why the lull in 2010? Possibly the ISI figured they were pushing the risk envelope too far, after Clinton's stern warning regarding the Shehzad "hool". In addition, the Kerry-Lugar act, lavishing billions of aid $ on Pakistan, passed into law on October 15th 2010. Also, in June 2010, Pakistan received its first consignment of three F-16 Block 52 and fourteen more refurbished F-16s (free of charge) from the US. Jiziya was paid, so the "hool" died down.

2011: Pakistan-US relations on another nosedive. First Raymond Davis in January, then Abbotabad in May, then the Salala incident in November. True to form, the "hools" start again in Sept 2011, followed by 4 incidents in 2012.

I conclude that there is a trend towards more "calibrated demonstrations of capability" to inflict terrorism on US soil, by the ISI, whenever the US puts Pakistan on the backfoot in the AfPak conflict. On the other hand, the "calibrated demonstrations of capability" become less frequent when the Pakis are given what they want (as in 2010)... or alternatively, when there is instability at the top levels of Pakistani power structure, and serious internal military threats emerge against TSPA/ISI (as in 2007.)

The thing is. That the CIA has penetrated the Pakis left right and center. I would not be surprised to know that some of the top men in the TSPA have a safehouse and a greencard waiting for them in the states. Musharrafs son, for example, is a pretty successful banker in Manhattan.

And this is what allows the Americans to prevent terror plots like they did in some of the above. Pure investigation and spooky strength.

If you were right about the CIA's capabilities, I don't think the US would be losing the war in AfPak. Guaranteeing protection and asylum for a few RAPE isn't enough to penetrate the ISI, or the whole Pak power structure could have been bought off after 9/11 itself.

Carl ji: most definitely. The CIA and ISI go back a long way. It is in both the ISI's interests, and the interests of US intel and security apparatus, when a "hool" happens... i.e. a terrorist almost conducts an attack but is "foiled" at the last minute. ISI shows itself to be indispensable for the safety of US citizens; DHS/FBI/CIA get to publicize the fact that "the threat still exists" and demand bigger budgets for next year. These relationships are very complex indeed.

Another thought: the Abbotabad operation to kill OBL can be thought of as an American "hool" only. OBL himself had become a hermit and largely a figurehead... killing him was mostly for propaganda value. The real demonstration of Abbotabad was the American capability to arrive anywhere within Pakistan and take out anybody, no matter how well hidden or well guarded, any time they like. This must have really sent the Jernails running to their Pakistans... as it was intended to... without causing any damage that would justify a Paki escalation of hostilities.

Rudradev

I think you're over analyzing things. If TSPA/ISI has the brains and the pin-point control over jihadis to plot and execute a fake 'near miss' operation like Times Square, then 9/11 would not have happened etc. In reality, TSPA has asymmetric control over its jihadi assets. It can get them to attack India or Afghanistan or a given target at around a given time, but it cannot get them to NOT attack certain targets or keep quiet for extended periods. As Unkil's tentacles and ears extended deeper and deeper into TSP, ISI types had to maintain looser and looser links with their assets for deniability purposes. With more deniable links, the side effect is looser control.

Also with any jihadi initiative, most attempts fail because the jihadi's zeal is often better than his skills. If TSPA had good control, it would have pre-empted Faisal Shahzad surely.

To mess with the risk of a direct Pak-linked attack in mainland US is just madness for TSPA.

There is tremendous inertia and the fear of the unknown when it comes to US policy towards TSP, which TSPA is continuing to exploit. Nothing more.

saravana wrote:The following 4 levels of participation are available:
1. $2500 - Confirmed one-way seat on the plane carrying General Musharraf from Dubai to Paksitan. (Includes invitation to photo opportunity, reception & dinner in Dubai the night before departure)

Yes, confirmed, it is a ONE WAY ticket...sun roof levers or lamp post will take care of the return..

Rangudu wrote:
To mess with the risk of a direct Pak-linked attack in mainland US is just madness for TSPA.

There is tremendous inertia and the fear of the unknown when it comes to US policy towards TSP, which TSPA is continuing to exploit. Nothing more.

A lot of deniability in Pakistani action is based on the creation of Islamic/Muslim persecution grievances among Pakistani population and expatriates. These people are exactly as you say - only partially in Paki control, but relate to Pakistan as an Islamic homeland where they have family. Shezad was the perfect example. The US is totally helpless because it cannot blame Pakistan for "Individual action taken by Muslims who feel angry at what is being done to fellow Muslims". The latter is the exact threat made by a lot of Muslim leaders - including a public statement on Indian TV by Lone who echoed Pakis and assorted Mullahs in saying that no one can control the actions of an individual angry Muslim. if you actively infuse grievances about Muslim persecution among Pakis, you can then deny the consequences of that. The man is trained by Pakistan, but his action is for Islam, not Pakistan. Like a James Bond who fights for the Church while being trained and equipped by the UK government. The US has stood side by side with Pakistan while doing this and they would love to continue. Pakis know they have the US by the balls here.

The US is too secular a state to be able to fight Islam directly - to the extent that Hamid Gul and Musharraf (and the Bhuttos) who used the Islam excuse to the hilt remained honoured US guests. The US is a cynical nation. They will accept it if Pakistan rots, but will not lift a finger to hit Pakistan. They will also use Pakistan where possible - so the use of Islam when directed against US enemies or those whom the US does not care for is OK. I think that is a good attitude for India to have towards the US. If Islam does not like the US we need to give Islam a chance to have its say.

I think we always go off on a tangent when we forget the Islam equation in Pakistan. With the "secular" west being the controller of modern media and thought, we always ignore the fact that Islam is at work doing all sorts of things that are useful to some people and working against others. All our discussions about US Pakistan relations are carried out at a "secular nation state relation" level. But the real dynamics involve Islam.

Shivji

Are you saying Secularism is a wrong and incapable ideology/standard to fight the likes of Islam?

Rangudu wrote:Rudradev

I think you're over analyzing things. If TSPA/ISI has the brains and the pin-point control over jihadis to plot and execute a fake 'near miss' operation like Times Square, then 9/11 would not have happened etc.

Rangudu, I don't think the ISI has pin-point control over *all* would-be Jihadi terrorists in the US. Certainly some are beyond its control, perhaps altogether... for example the Fort Hood gunman, Nidal Malik Hasan, who AFAIK had never had any association with Pakistan (and he actually succeeded.) Likewise Abdulmutallab, a Nigerian run by Awlaki's AQAP... apparently no ISI connection.

What I do contend is that the ISI has that amount of control over *some* Jihadi terrorists, and has used this year after year, to stage capabilities demonstrations intended to be "near-miss" scares. Most of the failed terrorist attacks by Jihadis with evident Paki/BD links fall into that category. We're not talking about a whole lot of incidents here... at the most 5/year. Surely the ISI's S-wing is equipped to project-manage that many jihadis in considerable detail.

9/11 is a different category of attack. It was meant to work as planned, like the 26/11 Mumbai attacks. Without it the whole renewed dependency of the US on Pakistan may never have come to pass; and it's self-evident that the ISI had enough deniability in that attack to escape US retribution.

In reality, TSPA has asymmetric control over its jihadi assets. It can get them to attack India or Afghanistan or a given target at around a given time, but it cannot get them to NOT attack certain targets or keep quiet for extended periods.

The ISI provides for their infiltration, training, equipment, finances and cover, and it can also leak information to US security agencies about their activities at the appropriate time. That's all the control needed for a capabilities demonstration.

Also with any jihadi initiative, most attempts fail because the jihadi's zeal is often better than his skills. If TSPA had good control, it would have pre-empted Faisal Shahzad surely.

I can't conclude so with very much confidence. Shahzad is a particularly strange case. If ISI intended for the bomb he built and planted to work as planned, surely they would have ensured that he learned how to build a working bomb, before they spent considerable resources on recruiting, indoctrinating, training and re-infiltrating him into the US. After all, that was to have been his primary task, no?

It's even weirder that the FBI was able to track the Nissan Pathfinder used (reportedly purchased with cash from a Craigslist ad, and no paperwork submitted) to Shahzad within the span of two days. Unless, of course, they had been tipped off by the ISI, and had Shahzad on a watch list for a long time before the attempt. That was definitely the case with both Matin Siraj and Ahsan Hafiz, both of whom were nailed with FBI stings... but how did the FBI know whom to sting?

To mess with the risk of a direct Pak-linked attack in mainland US is just madness for TSPA.

Some might say that Kargil was madness as well.

There is tremendous inertia and the fear of the unknown when it comes to US policy towards TSP, which TSPA is continuing to exploit. Nothing more.

One of TSPA/ISI's preferred methods to exploit this very inertia, and make sure it stays in place, is through the kind of capabilities demonstrations I've alluded to. The attacks never happen, so there's no pressure on US policymakers to look for alternative solutions. However, the failed attackers are both facilitated by, and eventually ratted out to the US authorities by the ISI; this serves to convince the GOTUS that it needs to have ISI on its side.

RamaY wrote:Shivji

Are you saying Secularism is a wrong and incapable ideology/standard to fight the likes of Islam?

I never commit things so bluntly because it leads to useless time wasting discussions. Secularism or no secularism, if Islam is a problem we have to talk about it. We cannot say "We talk about Islam because we are not secular" or "We do not talk about Islam because we are secular". Secularism is beside the point. It is a waste of time talking about tight pants when the problem is not the pant but the erection.

Mushiya is a Man of the words. He promised the lamp Post moment to all the South Asians decade ago and now he comes to fulfill the pledge.
Hare iS Singh with Bling

NEW DELHI: Prime Minister Manmohan Singh said on Wednesday that India was continuing to talk to Pakistan to normalise ties, but the latter was faltering on its part of the bargain with regard to terrorism.
Addressing the Lok Sabha where he berated the Bharatiya Janata Party for using foul language against him and his party, Dr Singh drew a rosy picture of his domestic and foreign policy measures.“Our dialogue with Pakistan continues in order to normalise our relations: promote bilateral cooperation and people-to-people contacts; and resolve outstanding issues,” Dr Singh said towards the end of his speech before winning a key vote on government’s policies. He described the recent flare-up on the Line of Control as a negative influence on the dialogue process.“Progress has been possible in some areas like trade and people-to-people contacts. But incidents such as the barbaric manner in which two Indian soldiers were killed on the Line of Control in January vitiate the atmosphere and cast a shadow on the bilateral dialogue process.“Further, we are yet to see tangible progress in dismantling the terrorism infrastructure in Pakistan and in bringing to justice the perpetrators of the Mumbai terror attack of November 2008. Normal, good-neighbourly relations between India and Pakistan — free from the threat of violence, and enhanced bilateral economic cooperation — would be in our mutual interest. We also expect Pakistan to take steps to create a conducive environment to take the process of normalisation forward,” Dr Singh said.India has an abiding interest in a stable, strong, united, democratic and prosperous Afghanistan, which is no longer a safe haven for terrorism.“As Afghanistan undergoes political, economic and security transitions in 2014 and beyond, we will continue to help build Afghan capabilities to evolve peacefully and fight terrorism and extremism,” the prime minister said.The Indian government is under pressure from its Tamil deputies to support a US-led resolution against Sri Lanka’s human rights record against Jaffna Tamils. The prime minister hedged his bets on how India would vote.“As regards the issue of a draft resolution expected to be tabled by the United States at the forthcoming session of the UN Human Rights Council in Geneva, our decision will depend on the substance of the final text tabled in the council. We will, however, be guided by our consistent position that we support proposals that seek to advance the achievement of a future for the Tamil community in Sri Lanka that is marked by equality, dignity, justice and self respect.”Responding to concerns raised by the deputies on the alleged threat India faces from China, Dr Singh played down the issue.

Ghazi-Barotha project: Govt may redesign hydel project for fair share of water

Pakjabi :Dimag Ki Kharabi

Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N) parliamentary leader Pir Sabir Shah drew the house’s attention to the Tarbela dam, which was built on the ancestral land of the inhabitants of Ghazi, the same people who have to endure the extensive blackouts.Other parliamentarians, Gohar Zaman and Waqar Khan, also expressed their concerns at the situation.Responding to the lawmakers, the information minister said: “The project was made diverting our river and its initial design was also altered.”The original design of Ghazi-Barotha, situated downstream Tarbela dam, was not implemented during the construction. No dams should be constructed downstream Tarbela, he further said. “Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa (K-P) is not ready to give even one percent of its water share.
“We want to redesign Ghazi-Barotha, which was made diverting our river,” he said, adding the federal government is taking water from K-P and diverting it to Islamabad and Rawalpindi. Punjab should provide water to the twin cities from its share, he said.Hussain expressed his concerns over prolonged power outages across the province and said it may be an attempt against the incumbent government. “Is it being done to demonize the government?” he asked rhetorically.Assembly Speaker Kiramatullah Khan Chagarmati, however, directed the Water and Power Development Authority to stick to its power outage schedule across the province.

shiv wrote:Secularism is beside the point. It is a waste of time talking about tight pants when the problem is not the pant but the erection.

I agree. Besides there is no such thing as "Secularism"! It is simply a thin veil to hide other beasts and agendas underneath!

Is this really required?

Indo-Pak trade expo to be in Jalandhar for five days

>>Secularism or no secularism, if Islam is a problem we have to talk about it. We cannot say "We talk about Islam because we are not secular" or "We do not talk about Islam because we are secular". Secularism is beside the point. It is a waste of time talking about tight pants when the problem is not the pant but the erection.

AoA - rotfl

more on paki asylym seekers in Austria
The right to asylum

While they endured cold nights on improvised sleeping berths, public perception, sympathetic at the beginning, turned against the protesters. On Sunday, March 3, they decided to leave the church and settle in an empty monastery nearby.

For the first group, the definition of what constitutes a war zone makes all the difference. The statistics are revealing: almost 40 per cent of Afghan asylum-seekers in Austria received a positive verdict in 2012. In the same year only one per cent of Pakistani asylum- seekers got legal status. And the absolute numbers are rising rapidly — 276 Pakistani applied in 2010, 949 in 2011 and 1,603 in 2012.

Different answers were given to questions about why the refugees in the church left their countries. Some were involved in local conflicts. Their land was taken away, family members were killed. Some were involved in political parties and some claim that they felt threatened by terrorists. Forty-seven-year-old Adalat Khan left his home outside Mingora in 2005. He says life was not safe anymore. “Most protesters in the church were living in the Pak-Afghan border region. The people are desperate. There is no secure place in Pakistan, not in Lahore, Karachi or Islamabad. And here in Europe nobody understands the real situation.”

Seems to be a common theme. Have fake police cases registered in home town and then use this to apply for asylum.

On their first contact with authorities in any EU state the fingerprints of people with no legal status are taken and stored in a data bank. This data bank makes it impossible for asylum-seekers to move to another country upon receiving a negative asylum verdict in one country.

Among other things, the refugees demand an improvement in their living standard and, crucially, better translators. Many refugees claim the translators have insufficiently translated their testimony or deliberately made it biased. They also demand that their fingerprints be erased from the data bank once they get a negative verdict so they have the chance to try in another country. But their utmost demand is for human rights.

RudraJi, I am with R-man on TSPA/ISI modus operendi. I find it too far fetched that TSPA/ISI had any calibrating role in the Times square bombing. And all, we do recall the massive guboing by TSPA in helping US after this Faizal pig was arrested by FBI, a stark contrast to how TSP deals with us Indian eunuchs (who in any case are more maacho and relentless in going after Modi than raising any stink over TSP terror against India).

I just go by elementary logic. The amount of fire power at US disposal, and the geographic distance from TSP means US can bring to bear its massive air assets without fear of fall out to its mainland should TSP up the ante with impunity. TSPA knows that, ISI knows that. In short, it would take anywhere from a few hours to a week at most for US to reduce TSP to a dust bowl. TSPA/ISI know that at the end of the day, this is the equation they are dealing with.

We have argued many times over and over again, TSPA/ISI and US elites have a love hate relationship for various geo political reasons. Their relationship is deep, and there is no universal consensus among US policy makers that TSP is evil. And the reason of course is cold war history, TSPA/US colluding with terrorists in fighting Soviets, and last, but not the least, the elephant in the room, India. And this is where I disagree with R-man

Rangudu wrote:
There is tremendous inertia and the fear of the unknown when it comes to US policy towards TSP, which TSPA is continuing to exploit. Nothing more.

TSP is exploiting US ambivalence towards a rising India, to further its own paranoid obsession with India.

Rangudu wrote:Rudradev

I think you're over analyzing things. If TSPA/ISI has the brains and the pin-point control over jihadis to plot and execute a fake 'near miss' operation like Times Square, then 9/11 would not have happened etc. In reality, TSPA has asymmetric control over its jihadi assets. It can get them to attack India or Afghanistan or a given target at around a given time, but it cannot get them to NOT attack certain targets or keep quiet for extended periods. As Unkil's tentacles and ears extended deeper and deeper into TSP, ISI types had to maintain looser and looser links with their assets for deniability purposes. With more deniable links, the side effect is looser control.

Also with any jihadi initiative, most attempts fail because the jihadi's zeal is often better than his skills. If TSPA had good control, it would have pre-empted Faisal Shahzad surely.

To mess with the risk of a direct Pak-linked attack in mainland US is just madness for TSPA.

There is tremendous inertia and the fear of the unknown when it comes to US policy towards TSP, which TSPA is continuing to exploit. Nothing more.

yes rudradev saar, IMO your posts reflects too much thought and analysis into a series of unfortunate events .

What is happening is, more simple. ISI/TSPA/Pak has decentralized terror. This is a Pak speciality, just as software and sadhus and yoga is ours.

Now, the ISI can export their products at certain times, put pressure on their "contacts" in the US and encourage them at certain points of time....and to their mind, they would be doing "hool".

But but but. You must remember that, when "giving hool" (love this phrase...I went to a Mumbai college) ...there is a shadow play , an escalation ladder--similar to when you want to nuke another country. Who acknowledges the hool first? And how do you know that the hool will not lead to blows?

And this ladder is not under the control of any ISI. The quality and quantity of "hool" from the American side, MAYBE under the control of the CIA...but it is certainly NOT in the control of the Pak Deep state. Every second guy is a terrorist. He can do whatever he wants, take Ammonium Nitrate through his colon into the USA, do all sorts of stuff under the influence of some cleric in Yemen.

No Sir, the ISI is not in calibrated control of the hool and the actions of every nanha mujahid 72 virgin f*ker.

RD, Start a poll on Mushy's return to TSP.

I think Rudradev is dead right on this.

ISI manages both parts - the Jihad against America and the intelligence cooperation with America. Not just that, I feel that it is a line we should forcefully make. The Jihadis should know that they can't trust the ISI, which means there would be an added effort by the Jihadi cells to cover their operations from too much ISI scrutiny, increasing their success-rate in the States. Loss of control over the Jihadis can come and bite ISI's ass big time - for then the only feature of ISI which would predominate is their clandestine support to the Jihadis.

Take it one step further. Islam has a huge problem with secularism. Whether or not you are secular does not make any difference—in India or elsewhere. If you are not Muslim, your compatriots are pledged to convert you.

MJ Akbar at Simon Fraser U was carrying on about secular India but what he did not/could not/ would not say is that without a Hindu majority in India, it would have become a Pakistan.

Hinduism considers all religions to be equal. None of the 'Book' religions believe that. Islam is a particular problem because it does not believe in a nation state and it infuses religiosity into everything.I could not stop laughing when Islam got infused into space travel:

http://www.wired.com/science/space/news ... a_in_orbit