Post Wuhan-Virus(Covid19) World and India

[m_saini]

Kissinger opened the gates. Hong Kong, Taiwan, Japan and Korea went through the gates. The entire factory eco-system in China was made by them. The goras came much later and most of time only tapped the eco-system -- they didn't create it like the Taiwanese, Koreans and Japanese.

There is no doubt that race and culture were important parts of this. They could have built that eco-system in ASEAN or --who knows -- India if it weren't for the cultural ties.

East Asian trade will not die the moment the US cuts itself off from the region. I think we have little understanding of the Far East because of how badly Greater Bharat is integrated imho. The RCEP is being fast tracted now because they want integral trade inside East and SouthEast Asia (chini diaspora) as the world is going into blocks.

They only went through the gates when the americans allowed them to. I agree that it was created by the koreans and japanese but it could never have happened without american's say so. I also agree that race and culture were important factors but not the deciding one. If Americans go all in on us today, Beedis and sri lankans are much more likely to set up here rather than, say, Africa.

Americans would never cut themselves off from asia, they hold all the cards. All they have to do is threaten to cut themselves off and everyone would fall in line. Japan knows cheen wants back for Nanjing and Taiwan knows what comes when there's no Americans. Also don't think cheen would allow their neighbors to be successful like the americans have allowed the japanese and koreans to be and i hope they know it too. It's going to be Huawei, SAIC instead of samsung, hyundai.

[Lisa]

@Cholaji,

Forget about the Koreans, before my Dell laptop was picked up for a service, I was asked if I had intended to take it to any embargoed country, If I can be asked, what are the odds that large multinational Korean and other such concerns did not know of these regulations? Please see COCOM and when it was established and you will see that the Koreans are lying.

These sanction need to be applied to ALL Chinese phone manufacturers. Once none are on the scene we will begin to understand how powerful the Chinese really are and more to the point a method of reducing Indian dependency on their hardware in this specific context.

Personally, sale of Windows and both Intel and AMD chips to China must also end and all those who crow about China made to explain how the SECOND MOST POWERFUL economy in the world cannot even make a PC. I will await this day.

[chola]

@Cholaji,

Forget about the Koreans, before my Dell laptop was picked up for a service, I was asked if I had intended to take it to any embargoed country, If I can be asked, what are the odds that large multinational Korean and other such concerns did not know of these regulations? Please see COCOM and when it was established and you will see that the Koreans are lying.

These sanction need to be applied to ALL Chinese phone manufacturers. Once none are on the scene we will begin to understand how powerful the Chinese really are and more to the point a method of reducing Indian dependency on their hardware in this specific context.

Personally, sale of Windows and both Intel and AMD chips to China must also end and all those who crow about China made to explain how the SECOND MOST POWERFUL economy in the world cannot even make a PC. I will await this day.

No, the Koreans are not lying and COCOM had been around since the Iron Bloc which Cheen has not been considered part of since the 1970s. Korea was also not considered one of the nations subjected to COCOM export rules.

If they knew they would have developed or bought non-US tools. The etching machines are actually not US only tech. US companies have the best price points in the global market so people bought them instead of developing their own. But if the calculus now includes the chini market then the expense of the localized projects suddenly becomes small compared to lost profits.

Lisa, no one can make many things alone in the globalized world (this will soon change) but Cheen can make more than most. There are far more that the US can't make without Cheen than the other way around. That includes API (India has the same reliance), your very computers and cellphones (except for the latest chips, the rest of the eco-system is in Cheen) and many types of infrastructure equipment people never think about like cranes and dredgers.

Lisa, no one crows about Cheen except the MNCs. They are the ones who see the real numbers and they don't want to lose that market. The US might have a deficit in exports to Cheen. But most of what the US imports are for US brands.

Trademarked US companies made $500B in sales in Cheen while Chini trademarked companies made barely $50B in the US. If Intel and AMD are banned then the fabless companies takeover completely. You think the Koreans, Japanese and Taiwanese are not angling for that half-trillion market that the US companies will generously vacate?

This is from the corporate perspective not geopolitical or national security one. But is it safer to have no US components in the Chini supply chains?

Embargoing Cheen on satellites did not kill the chini market. It just took the American components out of it. China has the largest satellite market in the world. Embargoing high-end chips did not kill the chini HPC market. They have the largest HPC market in the world. It just took the US chips out of them.

The health of national companies is also security concern too. They are a big part of a country influence.

Right now, Cheen is the only growing major economy on earth. The MNCs with operations in Cheen have a huge leg up on those who don't. That is why Germany and Korea pried open flights to Cheen while the rest of the world is blocked from flying there.

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/06/01/china-e ... g-pmi.html

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/06/01/after-c ... ction.html

[darshan]

Decades of bad policies have ensured that Chinese have many routes to handle any embargo. And not to forget all the money in the world to sabotage and bribe people.

Huawei's chips are the latest example.

First time I went to work in commercial industry I was shocked to see the whole scene of exports to Chinese. No one in US cared about ITAR or dual use when it came to Chinese. They did when it was India for sure.

It was clear that US wanted to prop up Chinese. Even today it's still not clear where US stands with Chinese. So far all US is doing is closing doors after horses have left. There's no clear shift towards India. A shift that starts with the dismantling of US controlled BIF networks.

[m_saini]

No one in US cared about ITAR or dual use when it came to Chinese. They did when it was India for sure.

It was clear that US wanted to prop up Chinese. Even today it's still not clear where US stands with Chinese. So far all US is doing is closing doors after horses have left. There's no clear shift towards India. A shift that starts with the dismantling of US controlled BIF networks.

I don't think it's that simple. US are primarily motivated by greed. Chinese gave them the ideal scenario for that; those 18 hour factories and those safety nets around them so people don't kill themselves working those shifts. It wasn't possible in India at that time and it still isn't today. I really admire the price chinese paid for what they achieved. We never did and still don't want to.