Bharat Rakshak

Rishi Bagree Flag of India
@rishibagree
'PM Modi is like God for us,' say West Bengal women voters.

And this is reported by NDTV Face with tears of joy

https://twitter.com/rishibagree/status/ ... 0173170690

Check the video...

Namita Bhargava
@Namitaangelite
Replying to @rishibagree
My maid went bengal for voting.
Me:amma kisko vote doge
Maid: Modi ko. Modi hum logon ko itna kuch diya. Lockdown mein hum log yahin tha lekin bank mein 6000 rupya jama karaya
Me:Aapne paise kharch kiye?
Maid:Jaroorat hi nahi padhi. Yogi sarkaar ne khaane peene ka intezaam kiya

https://twitter.com/Namitaangelite/stat ... 2803248136

I think both Mukul Roy and Adhikari has little chance. Most likely it will be Ghosh. But as you rightly said we can not predict NM and AS.

Karna wrote:

Yagnasri wrote:Post-election win BJP needs a powerful and strong leader who can control the police and paramilitary forces with an iron hand. Without an iron hand, there will no peace and without peace, there will be no development. BJP will either win an outright majority or there is no majority.

Possible CM candidates :
1. Dilip Ghosh
2. Mukul Roy
3. Suvendu

But BJP is known for springing a suprise be it Mah, Haryna or UP.

Most probably Mr Swapan Dasgupta with Adhikari as deputy

Yagnasri wrote:I think both Mukul Roy and Adhikari has little chance. Most likely it will be Ghosh. But as you rightly said we can not predict NM and AS.

Counting the chickens before they are hatched.

BJP will lose onlee.

vijayk wrote:

Rishi Bagree Flag of India
@rishibagree
'PM Modi is like God for us,' say West Bengal women voters.

And this is reported by NDTV Face with tears of joy

https://twitter.com/rishibagree/status/ ... 0173170690

Scary how much people of India have faith on Modi. May his reign be long, peaceful and prosperous. May he be healthy and strong.

Yagnasri wrote:I think both Mukul Roy and Adhikari has little chance. Most likely it will be Ghosh. But as you rightly said we can not predict NM and AS.

Ghosh would logically be a front runner. Like Modi, he is a RSS guy inducted into the BJP, has been working on the ground for decades, and did a great job in WB for the 2019 LS election.

But like in Assam, they would like to have their own leader as CM than someone from TMC who joined BJP recently. There is no doubt Adhikari will be given some good position and required respect in the party. Mukul Roy may be a minister in GoI.

I expect some changes in the Union Cabinet after the elections. Just gut feeling.

vimal wrote:

vijayk wrote:
https://twitter.com/rishibagree/status/ ... 0173170690

Scary how much people of India have faith on Modi. May his reign be long, peaceful and prosperous. May he be healthy and strong.

They have (at least many of them) seen the Truth about NaMo...sadly, we don't have hundred thousand plus NaMos across states to take his Good karma to the deeper level. My brother works with a lot of VHP and other BJP levels. Most 3rd tier and below are still old fashioned, biased men, corrupt folks...NaMo alone can only do so much...

^^ Add to that all the scum that BJP has managed to gather from various parties. I guess entropy is the only universal rule of universe..

Prediction BJP 241
Cong+others 33
TMC 20

https://twitter.com/SortedEagle/status/ ... 5920706562

Eagle Eye @SortedEagle
Bengal has at last realised that besides BJP no other party is going to do anything for the Hindus. For decades they’ve seen change in government’s from the Communists to Congress to TMC, they just saw Muslim appeasement & nothing else. This is their chance & only hope..BhagwaTriangular flag on post

What a clarity in thinking ... If Hindus have to be saved, women only have to do
Please watch video

Interesting that several members are putting forward their suggested names for the top posts in WB (provided BJP comes to power). I guess, this done without knowing the ground realities.

Dilip Ghosh: a street fighter, a lifelong RSS pracharak, and has done tremendous work to bring the party at the level where it is now today.
His strong point - RSS link. Very very weak points: he is a loose cannon. Quite often he is reprimanded by the central leadership to restrain his
unfiltered mouth which causes much embarrassment for the party. He is unlikely to be the CM face in Bengal even though he would strike the
ultimate fear in the hearts of the jihadists. He can occupy the speaker's post.

Mukul Roy: the backroom boy. A turncoat from TMC once the Saradha chit-fund case became hot. He held the purse-string of TMC, knew TMC's inside
out, and became a tremendous asset for BJP. He is the one who helped split TMC from inside, and caused mass exodus of sensible people from TMC.
To some extent, at the state level he has some similarity with Promod Mahajan at the national level.
His strong point: he is as stealth as a leopard, and attacks the opposition without giving any hint. Weak point: Doesn't have any mass base. He was
very reluctant to fight this election from Krishnanagar North, but AS made him to do that. He wanted to remain as a backroom boy, but for other
reasons AS asked him to get elected. He has personality clash with Dilip Ghosh. If he wins, then he will get a good portfolio, but if he loses, then he
will be reminded as his weakened position, and hence can be brought back at the party organisational level. He may become one of the two deputy
CMs. He is trying to promote his son - a rising star in the state politics, and a sitting MLA.

Shubhendu (or, Suvendu) Adhikari: hails from a very very powerful political family. He / his family (especially, his father Shisir Adhikary) is considered
to be the unspoken royalty of the entire south-west part of the state. Father and three sons (him, Dibyendu and Soumendu Adhikary) have been an
exceptional catch for BJP, and they must be kept in good humor. Definitely he will get the post of deputy CM's post. Can be be the CM? There will be
a strong opposition from BJP oldtimes, since after all he is a turncoat.

One of the most important positions - finance minister's position - will go to Prof. Ashok Lahiri. His name was unheard of in the political circle till
yesterday, but he is a very well-respected economist and helped GoI in various top positions. He has been given a very safe seat - Balurghat to get
elected. Should be a cakewalk for him as the seat is well-nurtured by the central minister Smt. Debasree Chaudhury (a very hard working lady, who
rose through the ranks of ABVP, at a time when CPM terror reigned supreme. She is very very popular in the bordering district South Dinajpur. That's
why Prof. Lahiri has been given is safe seat. It is understood that NaMo wants him to take charge of Bengal, turn around not only the state's economy,
but also for the entire east and NE region, so that India can carry the Act East policy forward. The hope is to integrate Myanmar-Thailand-Cambodia
and Vietnam, checkmate Panda, and have easy access to energy rich area. This will help us reduce dependence on ME.

My personal feeling is that Babul Supriyo and Locket Chatterjee - two strong personalities from the entertainment industry, bhumi putra/putri, both sitting MPs, have been asked to contest this election only because one of them will become the CM. May be Locket Chatterjee - she will gain an extra mileage being a woman. Either one of them will blunt the Kolkata-based pressitutes (who will definitely devour Dilip Ghosh).

Let's wait till May 2nd.

Let me remind all BRFites that Mumtaaz Banoo couldn't have won the election against the entrenched Left Front without the help of her then two trusted lieutenants - Shubhendu Adhikary and Mukul Roy.

Shubhendu strategized the Singur-Nandigram issue for her, and Mukul made sure of the ample money supply for her through the chit-funds).

Kati wrote:Interesting that several members are putting forward their suggested names for the top posts in WB (provided BJP comes to power). I guess, this done without knowing the ground realities.

Dilip Ghosh: a street fighter, a lifelong RSS pracharak, and has done tremendous work to bring the party at the level where it is now today.
His strong point - RSS link. Very very weak points: he is a loose cannon. Quite often he is reprimanded by the central leadership to restrain his
unfiltered mouth which causes much embarrassment for the party. He is unlikely to be the CM face in Bengal even though he would strike the
ultimate fear in the hearts of the jihadists. He can occupy the speaker's post.

Mukul Roy: the backroom boy. A turncoat from TMC once the Saradha chit-fund case became hot. He held the purse-string of TMC, knew TMC's inside
out, and became a tremendous asset for BJP. He is the one who helped split TMC from inside, and caused mass exodus of sensible people from TMC.
To some extent, at the state level he has some similarity with Promod Mahajan at the national level.
His strong point: he is as stealth as a leopard, and attacks the opposition without giving any hint. Weak point: Doesn't have any mass base. He was
very reluctant to fight this election from Krishnanagar North, but AS made him to do that. He wanted to remain as a backroom boy, but for other
reasons AS asked him to get elected. He has personality clash with Dilip Ghosh. If he wins, then he will get a good portfolio, but if he loses, then he
will be reminded as his weakened position, and hence can be brought back at the party organisational level. He may become one of the two deputy
CMs. He is trying to promote his son - a rising star in the state politics, and a sitting MLA.

Shubhendu (or, Suvendu) Adhikari: hails from a very very powerful political family. He / his family (especially, his father Shisir Adhikary) is considered
to be the unspoken royalty of the entire south-west part of the state. Father and three sons (him, Dibyendu and Soumendu Adhikary) have been an
exceptional catch for BJP, and they must be kept in good humor. Definitely he will get the post of deputy CM's post. Can be be the CM? There will be
a strong opposition from BJP oldtimes, since after all he is a turncoat.

One of the most important positions - finance minister's position - will go to Prof. Ashok Lahiri. His name was unheard of in the political circle till
yesterday, but he is a very well-respected economist and helped GoI in various top positions. He has been given a very safe seat - Balurghat to get
elected. Should be a cakewalk for him as the seat is well-nurtured by the central minister Smt. Debasree Chaudhury (a very hard working lady, who
rose through the ranks of ABVP, at a time when CPM terror reigned supreme. She is very very popular in the bordering district South Dinajpur. That's
why Prof. Lahiri has been given is safe seat. It is understood that NaMo wants him to take charge of Bengal, turn around not only the state's economy,
but also for the entire east and NE region, so that India can carry the Act East policy forward. The hope is to integrate Myanmar-Thailand-Cambodia
and Vietnam, checkmate Panda, and have easy access to energy rich area. This will help us reduce dependence on ME.

My personal feeling is that Babul Supriyo and Locket Chatterjee - two strong personalities from the entertainment industry, bhumi putra/putri, both sitting MPs, have been asked to contest this election only because one of them will become the CM. May be Locket Chatterjee - she will gain an extra mileage being a woman. Either one of them will blunt the Kolkata-based pressitutes (who will definitely devour Dilip Ghosh).

Let's wait till May 2nd.

Thanks for such a detailed analysis. Like i had mentioned both NM and AS has a penchant for putting up a surprising candidate. So while the above 3 looks obvious it may will not be the case.

A prosperous bengal is a must for Bharat. The fall of bharat started after we lost bengal. Let's wait and watch on 2nd May.

To all posters, the level of discussion and analysis is of a very high quality and my sincere thanks to each one of you.

vijayk wrote:

Rishi Bagree Flag of India
@rishibagree
'PM Modi is like God for us,' say West Bengal women voters.

And this is reported by NDTV Face with tears of joy

https://twitter.com/rishibagree/status/ ... 0173170690

Check the video...

Namita Bhargava
@Namitaangelite
Replying to @rishibagree
My maid went bengal for voting.
Me:amma kisko vote doge
Maid: Modi ko. Modi hum logon ko itna kuch diya. Lockdown mein hum log yahin tha lekin bank mein 6000 rupya jama karaya
Me:Aapne paise kharch kiye?
Maid:Jaroorat hi nahi padhi. Yogi sarkaar ne khaane peene ka intezaam kiya

https://twitter.com/Namitaangelite/stat ... 2803248136

This guy’s Hindi sounds like a caricature of a white colonizer trying to communicate with lowly subjects.

shaun wrote:

Karna wrote:
Possible CM candidates :
1. Dilip Ghosh
2. Mukul Roy
3. Suvendu

But BJP is known for springing a suprise be it Mah, Haryna or UP.

Most probably Mr Swapan Dasgupta with Adhikari as deputy

I hope not Swapan Dasgupta. He is too Bhadralok-bada sahib.

KLNMurthy wrote:

shaun wrote:
Most probably Mr Swapan Dasgupta with Adhikari as deputy

I hope not Swapan Dasgupta. He is too Bhadralok-bada sahib.

yep ... no way

Maybe they will surprise us like they did with Yogi in UP.

Kati wrote:Dilip Ghosh: a street fighter, a lifelong RSS pracharak, and has done tremendous work to bring the party at the level where it is now today. His strong point - RSS link. Very very weak points: he is a loose cannon. Quite often he is reprimanded by the central leadership to restrain his
unfiltered mouth which causes much embarrassment for the party. He is unlikely to be the CM face in Bengal even though he would strike the
ultimate fear in the hearts of the jihadists. He can occupy the speaker's post.

All that may be, but the same was true of Yogi Adityanath in 2017. He was known as a refractory character and made many controversial statements. He had a rocky relationship with BJP leadership. One time he put up his own candidates against official BJP candidates and threatened to keep doing it in future elections. If one had this same discussion about the UP 2017 election, Yogi would have had a long list of very weak points.

The situation in WB with law and order is similar to what UP was reduced to back in 2017. Perhaps worse than that. Much of this is caused by "peaceful" elements. Yogi has dealt with these elements very strongly. Someone like that is absolutely needed in WB.

All these premature assumptions about a massive BJP victory in WB and CM candidates' names being tossed around make me very jittery and cause uncomfortable flashbacks of 2015 Bihar elections, 2018 tri-state elections and 2020 Delhi election. We had seen very optimistic projections then too and in states where BJP had been strong for a while which turned out very differently.

If we do a dispassionate analysis, BJP's performance in 2019 Lok Sabha elections and 40% vote share maps to a leading position in 121 Vidhan Sabha seats. This leaves another 26 seats to cover which the momentum since 2019 elections and the increased support from the SC and Matua votes should be able to accomplish.

Vips wrote:If we do a dispassionate analysis, ... votes should be able to accomplish.

If we do the Madrasa Math, as per the TMC / PK, they need Majority votes from “Minority” and the Minority votes from Majority.

From my personal observation, the Vidhan Sabha Election is very different then the national. Which means, local issues take predominance, and in this case, some enti incumbency factor as admitted in the chat should help BJP.

With 30% Muslims, lets assume 100% will vote and TMC gets 95%. The rest goes to Left and all Non BJP. (There is a Trojan Horse here - Muslim Women, who has voted for BJP in secret)

Christians are 0.75 - 1 % - Most likely going to Left / INC alliance.

This means, the first 29% of votes coming to BJP is used up to wash out the Muslim Votes.

With average vote coming in between 75 to 82% of the electorate, the fight for BJP is to secure additional 7 - 11% of the remaining votes.

I say the odd is pretty good for BJP, especially if the Trojan horse cones to rescue.

But ..... BJP will lose onlee

That is very superficial analysis, but if you want to continue with the same model, lest add second level of analysis to that. At least 220 seats have 85% Hindu votes and rest 72 have like 30%-80%. The ones that have 'minority' between 20%-35%, typically BJP wins (hint western UP). In fact in Bihar in 2015 (or was it 2010?) Bjp won a 70% M seat because the minority vote got divided and BJP won it by getting 30% votes.

A better analysis is, south Bengal is where the fight is (south and east). By all accounts, BJP is doing better (and don't look at Bhadralok's feedback - this time the un-bhdralok Bengalis have decided to take matters into their own hand). s24 and Culcutta and suburbs - That will ultimately decide whose govt will be formed. For TMC, it has to have a strike rate of almost 100% to be in contention.

Vips wrote:If we do a dispassionate analysis, BJP's performance in 2019 Lok Sabha elections and 40% vote share maps to a leading position in 121 Vidhan Sabha seats. This leaves another 26 seats to cover which the momentum since 2019 elections and the increased support from the SC and Matua votes should be able to accomplish.

LS election performance does not automatically translate at an equal level to VS elections. We have seen that elsewhere, in both ways (in favour of and against the BJP). Critical factor here will be conversion rate of vote share to seats.

Please allow me to chime in.

People keep extrapolating 2019 GE to this state assembly.
There are major major differences, and mostly favouring BJP, but there are some monkey wrenches on the way too.

1. A galaxy of TMC insiders have switched sides in the last two years, most notably the entire Adhikary family and ex-forest minister Rajib Bandyppadhyay (with a very clean image). So advantage BJP

2. Two bhaijaans have thrown their hats in the ring - Abbas Siddiqi and Asaduddin Owaisi, and they are drawing huge minority crowds. This has upset Mumtaaz Banoo's apple-cart massively. This will help the United Front (of INC, LF and ISF) gain some seats, and pave the way for some more seats for BJP. So Advantage BJP.

3. BJP has been successful in creating a wave of perception that there is no jobs for the youngsters in the state, and about 50,000 bright students leave the state every years for Pune, B'luru, H'bad, Mumbai, NOIDA, etc. This claim is partially true, because WB's rural economy is surprisingly resilient, and it has been admitted by the Niti Ayog and the NaMo govt. Still, advantage BJP.

5. Since the GE 2019 debacle, Mumtaaz tried to stem the rot. The entire predominantly tribal/SC/ST area of west and south west Bengal did see a massive PR campaign, and poor families were given Rs. 2 /kg rice, etc. All over the state, female students were given many benefits (free bicycles, stipends, etc). This will definitely blunt BJP (and advantage TMC).

6. Many corrupt / questionable TMC leaders have been denied tickets this time. Also denied tickets to those who didn't get along well the good for nothing "nephew" (which was the genesis of the internal split and exodus of some clean sensible people). To counter this, Mumtaaz has fielded a bunch of fresh faces, especially popular celebrities. This actually forced BJP's hand to do the same. Here each side is checkmating the other.

nachiket wrote:

Vips wrote:If we do a dispassionate analysis, BJP's performance in 2019 Lok Sabha elections and 40% vote share maps to a leading position in 121 Vidhan Sabha seats. This leaves another 26 seats to cover which the momentum since 2019 elections and the increased support from the SC and Matua votes should be able to accomplish.

LS election performance does not automatically translate at an equal level to VS elections. We have seen that elsewhere, in both ways (in favour of and against the BJP). Critical factor here will be conversion rate of vote share to seats.

Weren't the areas that voted BJP in 2019 harassed by TMC Cadre? I think they might be more angry than they were in 2019. So I think the 40% vote share might be the baseline. It can only go up.

Kati wrote:Please allow me to chime in.


3. BJP has been successful in creating a wave of perception that there is no jobs for the youngsters in the state, and about 50,000 bright students leave the state every years for Pune, B'luru, H'bad, Mumbai, NOIDA, etc. This claim is partially true, because WB's rural economy is surprisingly resilient, and it has been admitted by the Niti Ayog and the NaMo govt. Still, advantage BJP.

From every Bengali i've met over the years this is a common perception. BJP somehow managed to piggyback on this using SM or other means.

What I worry is massive violence once (my prayers) MamBaano loses the election in WB. They'll go on rampage, discredit the EC, vote, process and throw the kitchen sink at NaMo/BJP. Their LiberFandooshes and Goramasters will be happy to oblige and go wail to Komalamommy and Xiden how HindoooooNaMo manipulated the election.... a BIG Hai Hai will follow for few weeks...

Punjabi wrote:What I worry is massive violence once (my prayers) MamBaano loses the election in WB. They'll go on rampage, discredit the EC, vote, process and throw the kitchen sink at NaMo/BJP. Their LiberFandooshes and Goramasters will be happy to oblige and go wail to Komalamommy and Xiden how HindoooooNaMo manipulated the election.... a BIG Hai Hai will follow for few weeks...

If they do that it will allow the BJP to use the central forces which are already deployed in the state for elections to strike back and catch and imprison lot of the TMC goons involved in the violence. Even the state police will be wary of allowing them to run riot knowing that a BJP administration will be their political overlords shortly.

The CAPF Forces will hopefully be retained for a few weeks to curb violence.

All good macro/strategic level analysis has been done. However Bengal elections are 294 microbattles and eight phases are 8 campaigns.or sweeps.

So far 4 phases are over for 135 seats are over.
Another 4 phases till April end.

Only 8th phase is tough for BJP as it's mostly TMC territory.

Haridas had made a overlay map of 2021 elections and I posted link on previous page.
Do study it.

Punjabi her latest burnt whatever painting could be a coded signal to riot and burn.

Haridas wrote:Composite info graphics of seats in phases and 2019 lok sabha votes

https://twitter.com/HaridasKukkur/statu ... 35809?s=09

Here is the graphic. Do study it.

In many ways Assam is a much more critical election than even WB, primarily due to the fact that the BJP is the incumbent there and the new Congress-AIUDF-Commie alliance. Assam Hindus are under direct threat if the AIUDF comes to power with the demographic issues being far more acute than even WB. In WB on the other hand, considering where BJP is starting from whatever they get will be a huge improvement in performance. Also MB is dealing with severe anti-incumbency issues thanks to every TMC MLA having converted himself into a local gunda in the last 10 years answerable to no one but the head gunda which may be MB or her nephew depending on who you ask.

World history is filled with 1 man armies - such is the destiny

SriKrishna
Octavian
Adi shankara
Tage Erlander
NaMo

You have the force of history with you.

As such Sri NaMo chooses every word carefully in rallies. As the country's PM every word of his mouth counts. Oppositions in every corner of the country weigh his words watchfully before they throw the next tantrums. In this regard, one of NaMo's statements is very interesting.
On Monday, at a rally in Burdwan, NaMo declared that in the first four phases BJP has already scored a century. Now that's a powerful statement.
Is he so sure about such a massive landslide, or it is just giving a bluff to Mumtaaz banoo?

Sure. You will see on May 2.
Do we have a list of seats in each phase to compare later.

ramana wrote:All good macro/strategic level analysis has been done. However Bengal elections are 294 microbattles and eight phases are 8 campaigns.or sweeps.

So far 4 phases are over for 135 seats are over.
Another 4 phases till April end.

Only 8th phase is tough for BJP as it's mostly TMC territory.

Haridas had made a overlay map of 2021 elections and I posted link on previous page.
Do study it.

https://twitter.com/HaridasKukkur/statu ... 35809?s=19

Phase 8, congress will flip to BJP, not to mention much of green TMC will flip due to 3 way clash that will split sectarian Muslim vote.

V_Raman wrote:World history is filled with 1 man armies - such is the destiny

Krishna
Octavian
Adi shankara
Tage Erlander
NaMo

You have the force of history with you.

Fools compare Sri Krishna `bhagwaan swayam` with mortels. Dispel any doubt by reading Srimad Bhagavad Gita.

For your own benefit (and others who read it) please at least put Sri in front of Krishna.

I think many BRF-ites are prematurely celebrating a BJP victory in West Bengal. There could be a proverbial slip between the cup and the lip.

The ‘silent voter’ and minority conundrum: Mamata Banerjee’s traditional vote bank could turn the tide against her

With West Bengal polls heading towards culmination, political strategists may be involved in finding the right political math behind the high voter turnout which the BJP has claimed to be benefitting. In Bengal, there are 3,58,45,115 male voters and 3,40,45,313 female voters. The women voters constitute 48.71 per cent of the total 6,98,91,751 voters. Just like Bihar where women voters have been playing a key role in getting Nitish Kumar back to power, Mamata Banerjee has been banking on women and Muslim voters for her return as Chief Minister for the third straight term. Traditionally, a high voter turnout has mostly resulted in sitting CMs losing the chair.

There are many seats including in Kolkata, North 24 Parganas, South 24 Parganas, Hooghly and Howrah where women voters have outnumbered men. If we talk about 44 seats of Phase-IV only, there were 11 constituencies where women voters are more than their male counterparts. In six of these – Sonarpur Dakshin, Sonarpur Uttar, Jadavpur, Tollygunj, Behala Uttar and Behala Dakshin, the women voters have an edge over the male. Of these 11 constituencies, the total number of female voters are 15,70,392 while that of the male is 15,66,161.

The story is not different in other constituencies where the women voters are either nearly at par with the men or slightly lower in number but play a decisive role. While the TMC has come out with ‘Bangla Nijer Meyeke Chai’ (Bengal wants its daughter) slogan to counter the BJP and cash on its ‘outsider’ plank, the party admits it is up against a formidable force. The saffron party has promised many measures including free transportation and reservation in government jobs to lure women voters. Notably, the SCs/STs voters, which have been voting dominantly for the BJP, also include women.