Narendra Modi vs the Dynasty: Contrasting Ideas of India

chetak · Post by **chetak** » 15 Apr 2013 17:29

Arjun wrote:
Supratik wrote:Without BH, the math is not adding up. In BH if there is no alliance the BJP will at best get 5 seats.
Supratik, can you explain why ? Last time with the alliance BJP won 12 and JDU 20, out of a total of 40. Why do you think the BJP would drop to 5 without the alliance?

Specially if it distanced itself from nitesh and contested many more seats than last time?

chaanakya · Post by **chaanakya** » 15 Apr 2013 17:34

harbans wrote:Meanwhile, even though the poll was removed from site..the rest of the BJP/ INC put together cannot muster even a tenth of what NM has got here:

Who should be India's next PM

Poll is very much there. LKA, RG, MMS PC all fare better then NiKu but combined together they pale in comparison to NaMo. But that could be internet warriors vote. What happened in Times Poll methinks.

Supratik · Post by **Supratik** » 15 Apr 2013 17:36

Arjun wrote: Supratik, can you explain why ? Last time with the alliance BJP won 12 and JDU 20, out of a total of 40. Why do you think the BJP would drop to 5 without the alliance?

Division of votes. All 3 contenders have solid vote blocks. RJD+LJP Yadav + Muslim + Paswan, JD(U) non-yadav OBCs + non-Paswan dalits, BJP FCs with FCs forming the minority of numbers. In an alliance this time they can get 38-40 seats. You break an alliance when the partner is weak e.g. JD-S in KT but if the partner is strong then you loose e.g. Patnaik in OR.
BTW, the NDTV anchor couldn't stop smiling after Nitish's speech. First job is to get NDA elected.

Yagnasri · Post by **Yagnasri** » 15 Apr 2013 17:40

First the person who can lead and get maximum number of seats to BJP should lead the BJP. We do not have any doubt who that person is. NDA fellows - Sivasena and Akalies have no objection to any person leading BJP as they don't give a hoot for Muslim votes. CBN, Navin Parnaik may tiry to sit on fence or try to make 3rd front which will not materialize so easyly. JJ has good equation with NaMo and may jump in to supporting him. Mamtha is unpredictable and may not openly support but may keep quite as long is bengal is give speacial treatment etc. Even Mayavathi may keep quite for some time because SP and INC relations are more deaper and she does not depend of Muslim votes like SP. So no serious worries there. FCs in BSP also may make her see the advatage of escaping blackmail of INC. Nitish then lick BJP a** and comeback to support it.

Once around 175 then BJP has to be called by Pranab for forming the governament by the President and anything less may allow INC to instigate a 3rd front drama. So have the best leader and go for 175 plus and every thing will be taken care later.

The legal position in the condition of no clear majority is bit fluid with each President doing his bit to complecate the matter. Still it is not clear if the biggest part or the party which is most likely command the majority in the house is to be called. So interesting things may happen and we do not know what Pranab will do. He is may not be a rubber stamp of Sonia I hope.

Neela · Post by **Neela** » 15 Apr 2013 17:43

^^^
Absolutely.
It boils down to how much BJP can win now. If they can muster >175 and Congress is <100, the gravity of BJP will be big.

Yagnasri · Post by **Yagnasri** » 15 Apr 2013 17:56

Chal Akela - Charge alone rather and hit hard with your best weapons. Give relentless attacks all the time till INC is totally defamed.

Entire media - Print and TV is against BJP so it has to use internet and social media actively just like Obama did.

Money is needed also and INC has lot of loot there to spend- So BJP has to ask for for donations from public openly. Modi asked for money openly and even supported that there is nothing wrong in asking for Daan. So have some good fund by directly taking small amounts from public and use it for accoutable expneses with proper audit etc.

Give a call for people to volenter for a month or so during elections. Create a big volenter gangs from none party workers from every field - software geeks to farmers. Other than Governament servents there is no bar anyone to work for political party legally.

Everything is to get as many seats as possible.

RoyG · Post by **RoyG** » 15 Apr 2013 17:59

It's all speculation at this stage. Nitish knows what will happen if he leaves. I only care about policy.

I will be happy if:

NAC along with NREGA is eliminated.
GST tax implemented
Abolishing income tax.
Gold tax slashed to 1%.
Black money used to bolster gov held gold reserves.
CDS along with Joint Services Command
Divestment especially in defence
Personal law eliminated
Reforestation program
Laser Ignition Facility, Laser enrichment research, and validation of thermonuclear capability.
Molten salt reactor research along with desalination and water conservation research

member_22539 · Post by **member_22539** » 15 Apr 2013 18:08

Advani should accept he has FAILED and retire gracefully. There is nothing sadder than someone trying to relive his glory days, while long past his prime. Those who are advocating half-a$$ed compromise should note that it is this attitude that got BJP into this mess in the first place. By playing such games, they are playing the congis game, in which they will never be better than the congi and will LOSE. So, think before your ready to dump Mr. Modi as PM for the sake of much vaunted "practicality."

Supratik · Post by **Supratik** » 15 Apr 2013 18:10

RoyG wrote:It's all speculation at this stage. Nitish knows what will happen if he leaves. I only care about policy.

I will be happy if:

NAC along with NREGA is eliminated.
GST tax implemented
Abolishing income tax.
Gold tax slashed to 1%.
Black money used to bolster gov held gold reserves.
CDS along with Joint Services Command
Divestment especially in defence
Personal law eliminated
Reforestation program
Laser Ignition Facility, Laser enrichment research, and validation of thermonuclear capability.
Molten salt reactor research along with desalination and water conservation research

+ 1 Policy and governance is all that matters plus things like Freedom of religion bill, etc are bonuses. NM can as deputy PM do a lot. If his policies at the Center are good then JD(U) opposition may come down when his time to take over comes.

Those who want to go alone. Can you guys give us the maths where those 187 (98-99 figure) seats will come from? We need a realistic breakdown.

Arjun · Post by **Arjun** » 15 Apr 2013 18:17

Supratik wrote:Division of votes. All 3 contenders have solid vote blocks. RJD+LJP Yadav + Muslim + Paswan, JD(U) non-yadav OBCs + non-Paswan dalits, BJP FCs with FCs forming the minority of numbers. In an alliance this time they can get 38-40 seats. You break an alliance when the partner is weak e.g. JD-S in KT but if the partner is strong then you loose e.g. Patnaik in OR.
BTW, the NDTV anchor couldn't stop smiling after Nitish's speech. First job is to get NDA elected.

This argument works under the assumption that OBCs and Dalits (non-Paswan) will prefer Nitish to BJP. Modi coming in will obviously change the game - only question is how significant of a change we are looking at.

One measure of his appeal to OBCs is this very move by Nitish to break ranks over Modi - the only logical reason for bringing up Modi as a 'secular' issue and not the entire BJP or Advani is either that (a) he sees Modi as a threat to his OBC vote base or (b) he hopes to attract Muslims with his moronic rhetoric. I would think (b) is more unlikely given Muslims are likely to prefer Lallu or Dynasty.

I don't think this drop in BJP seats is a given at all...the split could well boost the BJP tally in Bihar. In any case, Nitish is ideologically unsuited as an ally to the BJP - and BJP did not initiate the break in alliance. If any minority partner has the temerity to dictate terms regarding leader of the BJP party - then that IS definitely a break initiated by Nitish. Even the electorate in the rest of India would look askance at a party like the BJP being dictated to by riff-raff like Nitish.

Gus · Post by **Gus** » 15 Apr 2013 18:26

Singha wrote:a week of posturing and half the people have thrown their rifles down, abandoned the fwd line of trenches and are already coming up with installing a 86 year old bahadur shah zafar MKI as a interim raja in the hope of tiding over the war without a shot!

let there be churning and war...war is the beginning of all creation and great leaders have always been forged in war.

Yes. Go out and campaign for him in whichever way you can. There's 3 or 4 votes minimum in immediate family and dozen to 20 votes in next circle of family and another dozen to 20 in close friends. That's an easy 50 votes for each of us. Out yourself as modi supporter in your network and start active campaigning. If there's a wave lets be part of it. If there's no support then maybe he does not deserve to be PM.

Like in love - it is better to have campaigned and lost than not to have campaigned at all.

Supratik · Post by **Supratik** » 15 Apr 2013 18:31

Lok Sabha 1999

Andhra 42, BJP 7
Arunachal 2 0
Assam 14 2
Bihar 54 BJP 23 (in alliance)
Gujrat 26 20
Haryana 10 5
himachal 4 3
J&K 6 2
Karnataka 28 7
Kerala 20 0
MP 40 29
Maharashtra 48 13
TN 39 4
Punjab 13 1
Uttar Pradesh 85 29
Rajasthan 25 16
Delhi 7 7
West Bengal 42 2
Orissa 21 9

Total BJP 182

Arunkumar · Post by **Arunkumar** » 15 Apr 2013 18:36

Gus wrote:
Singha wrote:a week of posturing and half the people have thrown their rifles down, abandoned the fwd line of trenches and are already coming up with installing a 86 year old bahadur shah zafar MKI as a interim raja in the hope of tiding over the war without a shot!

let there be churning and war...war is the beginning of all creation and great leaders have always been forged in war.
Yes. Go out and campaign for him in whichever way you can. There's 3 or 4 votes minimum in immediate family and dozen to 20 votes in next circle of family and another dozen to 20 in close friends. That's an easy 50 votes for each of us. Out yourself as modi supporter in your network and start active campaigning. If there's a wave lets be part of it. If there's no support then maybe he does not deserve to be PM.

Like in love - it is better to have campaigned and lost than not to have campaigned at all.

correct. each of the supporter and fans can influence atleast 4 votes or more if relatives are factored. Next housemaids, drivers, peons,helpers can be incentivised(or NREGA-ised) with small increments. let there be a wave.

Supratik · Post by **Supratik** » 15 Apr 2013 18:42

They are not going to win any in TN, may be 1 or 2 in AP, may be 1 in WB. Loss of 10-11 seats. These will be compensated in Pj, Rj, MP and Kt. If they win 25 in UP (hard). In Jh 7, then they need to win 16 seats in Bh. The question is can they win 16 out of 40 in Bh without an alliance? JD(U) had 18 seats. Who is going to compensate these seats?

Yagnasri · Post by **Yagnasri** » 15 Apr 2013 18:42

RoyG Sir, What is this malten Salt thing and Lasar thing. Can you please provide some links in leapfrog tachnolagies thread.

I think they won only 4 in AP with CBN as a partner. This time they can try for few in Telangana region at least.

Supratik · Post by **Supratik** » 15 Apr 2013 18:45

I forgot Orissa 9 out of 21. This time it will be 0.

Sanku · Post by **Sanku** » 15 Apr 2013 19:10

Singha wrote:a week of posturing and half the people have thrown their rifles down, abandoned the fwd line of trenches and are already coming up with installing a 86 year old bahadur shah zafar MKI as a interim raja in the hope of tiding over the war without a shot!

let there be churning and war...war is the beginning of all creation and great leaders have always been forged in war.

I have maintained that much before this thread Singha ji.

Modi should not aim to be PM without having a good stint as a Cabinet minister first.

Virendra · Post by **Virendra** » 15 Apr 2013 19:17

Sanku wrote: I have maintained that much before this thread Singha ji.

Modi should not aim to be PM without having a good stint as a Cabinet minister first.

I tend to agree but at the same time hope that it wouldn't be a major issue, since he has enough experience of Governance as a Chief Minister.

Muppalla · Post by **Muppalla** » 15 Apr 2013 19:19

Singha wrote:a week of posturing and half the people have thrown their rifles down, abandoned the fwd line of trenches and are already coming up with installing a 86 year old bahadur shah zafar MKI as a interim raja in the hope of tiding over the war without a shot!

let there be churning and war...war is the beginning of all creation and great leaders have always been forged in war.

+1000. There is no one outside Delhi/UP belt who salivates for this 86 year old. There were times when everyone wholeheartedly supported. He is right now at his lowest best and seems that he does not want to die honorably.

Projecting Advani == Paving the way for Pappu

One of my ex-manager and a close friend of mine was a special invitee to BJP's national executive meeting held in Delhi where Modi ripped through UPA while Advani was talking about Sushma. He told me in one sentence, however someone may try Advani or his appointees, the ideas are all DOA as far as BJP is concerned. The mood of about 90% of cadre (BJP or RSS) is all set on Modi and no one in any wing of the parivaar has any type of guts to even talk differently. Currently all they were spinning to ward of knives is that we all accept Modi but let us make him candidate in December. Before that he will be made as Election committee chairman.

Now connect the dots to Nitish's December deadline.

He will leave NDA as no one can stop Modi. It is now just a formality. He is only trying to give a reason for all those 85+ year olds and their useless pillion riders a chance to stop Modi.

The grapevine talk is that UPA is frantically trying to put Modi into some kind of corruption case so that those fighting against him with zero success gets some fodder to fight.

Sanku · Post by **Sanku** » 15 Apr 2013 19:35

Arjun wrote:
Supratik wrote:Without BH, the math is not adding up. In BH if there is no alliance the BJP will at best get 5 seats.
Supratik, can you explain why ? Last time with the alliance BJP won 12 and JDU 20, out of a total of 40. Why do you think the BJP would drop to 5 without the alliance?

Say the winning vote share in any given area is 36-44%. Be it BJP Look at the vote share, both last elections and before that. Now the vote shares of both JDU and BJP include what has been given by the partners voters. So if BJP is 14-18% and 20-26% or so from JDU (exact figure escapes me) -- this would mean if they were standing against each other,

JDU would get 20-26%, BJP 14-18% and Lalu 18% or so.

Clearly Lalu is now in fight, a 2% vote swing, and constituencies would start going any which way.

So expect the few areas in which BJP votes bunch up, it is to be expected that the BJP seats will fall drastically.

Sanku · Post by **Sanku** » 15 Apr 2013 19:55

If the deadline is Dec, and as per widespread expectation, the election is in Nov-Dec then?

vijayk · Post by **vijayk** » 15 Apr 2013 19:56

RoyG wrote:It's all speculation at this stage. Nitish knows what will happen if he leaves. I only care about policy.

I will be happy if:

NAC along with NREGA is eliminated.
GST tax implemented
Abolishing income tax.
Gold tax slashed to 1%.
Black money used to bolster gov held gold reserves.
CDS along with Joint Services Command
Divestment especially in defence
Personal law eliminated
Reforestation program
Laser Ignition Facility, Laser enrichment research, and validation of thermonuclear capability.
Molten salt reactor research along with desalination and water conservation research

Once an entitlement programs give away every thing free, it is impossible to cut it off. It will be a death knell for any party. It is like persons addicted to drugs. You can't wean them away on one day. They will die of shock.

The only way to wean them off free stuff is to make this a investment fund and come up with a creative solution where these people are employed/trained and build a sustainable unit which can generate income and also instill pride in them.

If anyone can come up with ideas like that, Modi can ...

http://www.manushi.in/articles.php?articleId=1699

“The best part of this government is that it has very firm control over law and order. Even at night, there are no highway dacoities or loot maar as are happening in other states. Therefore, it is good for our business. But all this is not just due to police crackdowns. This government has created work and job opportunities for all. For example, there is a poor adivasi settlement around Ambaji Mandir. Some of these men used to indulge in crimes and loot. That community has been given a contract for garbage recycling. So they are very happy about having a regular source of income and are busy making money from that. The government has a plan to make Gujarat a Zero Garbage state with its slogan “Reduce, Recycle, and Reuse. So it is win-win for all.”

RoyG · Post by **RoyG** » 15 Apr 2013 20:30

^^Public spending at NREGA levels is unsustainable. We have to combat inflation. No other way around it.

member_22539 · Post by **member_22539** » 15 Apr 2013 20:45

Muppalla wrote:
Singha wrote:a week of posturing and half the people have thrown their rifles down, abandoned the fwd line of trenches and are already coming up with installing a 86 year old bahadur shah zafar MKI as a interim raja in the hope of tiding over the war without a shot!

let there be churning and war...war is the beginning of all creation and great leaders have always been forged in war.
+1000. There is no one outside Delhi/UP belt who salivates for this 86 year old. There were times when everyone wholeheartedly supported. He is right now at his lowest best and seems that he does not want to die honorably.

Projecting Advani == Paving the way for Pappu

One of my ex-manager and a close friend of mine was a special invitee to BJP's national executive meeting held in Delhi where Modi ripped through UPA while Advani was talking about Sushma. He told me in one sentence, however someone may try Advani or his appointees, the ideas are all DOA as far as BJP is concerned. The mood of about 90% of cadre (BJP or RSS) is all set on Modi and no one in any wing of the parivaar has any type of guts to even talk differently. Currently all they were spinning to ward of knives is that we all accept Modi but let us make him candidate in December. Before that he will be made as Election committee chairman.

Now connect the dots to Nitish's December deadline. He will leave NDA as no one can stop Modi. It is now just a formality. He is only trying to give a reason for all those 85+ year olds and their useless pillion riders a chance to stop Modi.

The grapevine talk is that UPA is frantically trying to put Modi into some kind of corruption case so that those fighting against him with zero success gets some fodder to fight.

You just made my day by confirming my beliefs. Any other option besides Mr. Modi is DOA. The party cadre and even the RSS cadre are firmly behind Mr. Modi. This split will take away the last argument the D4 have against anointing Mr. Modi i.e. he is not acceptable to Nitish. Now that the split will happen, Mr. Modi's opponents won't get to make that argument.

Supratik · Post by **Supratik** » 15 Apr 2013 20:47

Vijay is right in that once these types of programs start it is very difficult to stop it. What can be done is to cap spending so that revenues increase but spending on NREGA does not. What the NAC had planned was to increase both number of beneficiaries and also increase the amount every 2-3 yrs. So they wanted to create indirectly a huge army of Govt. servants who do not contribute anything tangible.

Klaus · Post by **Klaus** » 15 Apr 2013 20:48

Shonu wrote: Pray tell - what is this Dwarka-Magadh axis? Very curious sir

Kindly go through the series of posts before and after the ones linked here to get understanding:

http://forums.bharat-rakshak.com/viewto ... a#p1164770

http://forums.bharat-rakshak.com/viewto ... ha#p916777

Very important that someone has indeed brought these terminologies back into this current affairs thread. Sometimes we are too engrossed to see the picture in politico-strategic continuity terms.

Supratik · Post by **Supratik** » 15 Apr 2013 20:49

The NAC wants democratic Communism. It should be promptly disbanded if there is a change in Govt.

Arjun · Post by **Arjun** » 15 Apr 2013 21:07

Sanku wrote:Say the winning vote share in any given area is 36-44%. Be it BJP Look at the vote share, both last elections and before that. Now the vote shares of both JDU and BJP include what has been given by the partners voters. So if BJP is 14-18% and 20-26% or so from JDU (exact figure escapes me) -- this would mean if they were standing against each other,

JDU would get 20-26%, BJP 14-18% and Lalu 18% or so.

Clearly Lalu is now in fight, a 2% vote swing, and constituencies would start going any which way.

So expect the few areas in which BJP votes bunch up, it is to be expected that the BJP seats will fall drastically.

This doesn't account for the expected Modi wave...but I do broadly agree with the reasoning. Only issue being, the same reasoning should apply to JDU as well. Both parties should be impacted negatively.

Which is why I am convinced Nitish is playing a game of chicken - he cannot afford to terminate the alliance yet wants to play hardball. I would recommend the BJP respond with the same hardball tactics - announce Modi as PM. And lets see if Nitish actually does walk out...

Abhijit · Post by **Abhijit** » 15 Apr 2013 21:07

James B wrote:
Shonu wrote: what is SM and MSM? I keep hearing it but google provides no answers. is MSM mass social media??
SM = Secular Media
MSM = Main Stream Media

Nope!

SM = Social Media = twitter, fb, blogs, forums etc.
MSM = mainstream media = all the TV channels, newspapers + their online presence

RoyG · Post by **RoyG** » 15 Apr 2013 21:13

Arjun wrote:
Sanku wrote:Say the winning vote share in any given area is 36-44%. Be it BJP Look at the vote share, both last elections and before that. Now the vote shares of both JDU and BJP include what has been given by the partners voters. So if BJP is 14-18% and 20-26% or so from JDU (exact figure escapes me) -- this would mean if they were standing against each other,

JDU would get 20-26%, BJP 14-18% and Lalu 18% or so.

Clearly Lalu is now in fight, a 2% vote swing, and constituencies would start going any which way.

So expect the few areas in which BJP votes bunch up, it is to be expected that the BJP seats will fall drastically.
This doesn't account for the expected Modi wave...but I do broadly agree with the reasoning. Only issue being, the same reasoning should apply to JDU as well. Both parties should be impacted negatively.

Which is why I am convinced Nitish is playing a game of chicken - he cannot afford to terminate the alliance yet wants to play hardball. I would recommend the BJP respond with the same hardball tactics - announce Modi as PM. And lets see if Nitish actually does walk out...

Declaring Modi as PM now will destroy the mystique. The fact that he isn't being declared makes him more popular. MSM loves it.

chaanakya · Post by **chaanakya** » 15 Apr 2013 21:18

Sanku wrote:

Say the winning vote share in any given area is 36-44%. Be it BJP Look at the vote share, both last elections and before that. Now the vote shares of both JDU and BJP include what has been given by the partners voters. So if BJP is 14-18% and 20-26% or so from JDU (exact figure escapes me) -- this would mean if they were standing against each other,

JDU would get 20-26%, BJP 14-18% and Lalu 18% or so.

Clearly Lalu is now in fight, a 2% vote swing, and constituencies would start going any which way.

So expect the few areas in which BJP votes bunch up, it is to be expected that the BJP seats will fall drastically.

Coming of Lalu will be nightmare for Bihar. I dont think people of Bihar would tolerate that. My feeling is that BJP might become beneficiary if it puts up a moral fight like what happened in Karnataka with Kumaraswamy breaking away. Their image is quite good on the ground. Sushil Modi has done good job and that is recognised.
However , Politics is a Bitch.Nothing could be said with certainty.

Arjun · Post by **Arjun** » 15 Apr 2013 21:22

RoyG wrote:Declaring Modi as PM now will destroy the mystique. The fact that he isn't being declared makes him more popular. MSM loves it.

I think it will make a difference to the campaign trail - ie in speeches to constituencies that go to the polls. Campaigning as THE PM candidate vs as just another political heavyweight will make a difference. IF what I say is true - he needs to be declared PM before the campaigning starts.

RajeshA · Post by **RajeshA** » 15 Apr 2013 21:36

Published on Apr 15, 2013
By Ravish Tiwari
Narendra Modi as a 'backward leader', Nitish Kumar as an upper caste 'hero': Indian Express

In the ironic ways politics works, should it come to the JD(U) and BJP parting ways in Bihar, the BJP believes that if Nitish Kumar has the development card, they have another potent one: Gujarat Chief Minister Narendra Modi's caste.
Or, specifically, the fact that Modi belongs to the "ati-pichhda (Extremely Backward)" class — believed to be a Nitish vote bank.

The EBC category includes more than 100 castes dispersed thinly across the state but which form a considerable chunk together. They are believed to be numerically much more than the Yadav community, considered the RJD's core support base. The EBCs have been staunch Nitish backers since his government in its first tenure provided them reservation in panchayats.

Trust it on the entrenched nature of identity politics in Bihar that BJP workers sincerely believe that Modi — despite his carefully crafted image of a development-oriented leader who is above caste identities — being an EBC can help them poach on JD(U) territory.

"Don't forget that Modi belongs to a backward class. That too, from what we understand, an EBC," said a BJP district president. "Isliye, ati-pichhda varg puri tarah se BJP se nahin jayega, Modi OBC hain isliye bahut sara hamare saath aayega, aap dekhiyega (That's why, in case of a split, we won't lose the entire EBC vote. Since Modi is OBC, we will get a lot of their votes, you'll see)."

This reasoning was offered by several BJP district presidents to The Indian Express during its tour of Bihar when asked whether the BJP stood to lose the EBC vote in a parting of ways with the JD(U). Several central office-bearers of the party in Delhi also privately confide that Modi's caste could be a stealth weapon in the Hindi heartland that thrives on identity politics.

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 15 Apr 2013 21:48

Right now LKA can do maximum damage thru his proxies in and out of BJP. He can ensure BJP won't win out of cussedness.

The important goal is to get the UPA removed from power. So to further this goal there will be noises to declare him tallest leader etc knowing he is past his sell date. He couldn't be the tallest leader at the height of the RJM movement, yet he is being declared now only to limit his damage potential.

Between now and elections is a long time.

"Nanda raja Bhavishyate!"

So first win and then things can be settled.

Sanku · Post by **Sanku** » 15 Apr 2013 21:55

Arjun wrote:. Only issue being, the same reasoning should apply to JDU as well. Both parties should be impacted negatively.

Which is why I am convinced Nitish is playing a game of chicken - he cannot afford to terminate the alliance yet wants to play hardball.

I agree, JD U will be impacted negatively, however as the largest party (vote %) wise, they may still not do too badly in the first past the post games. However then the question is of

chaankaya wrote: My feeling is that BJP might become beneficiary if it puts up a moral fight like what happened in Karnataka with Kumaraswamy breaking away. Their image is quite good on the ground. Sushil Modi has done good job and that is recognised.

And also there **MAY** be some amount of Modi wave 2-3%? This **MAY** allow BJP to put up a fight. Yet we are still looking at 12-15 for BJP **BEST CASE** (instead of 30-40 for NDA)

So yes, they are both playing chicken -- or a choregraphed Nautanki, I am inclined to think Nautanki, no one with any idea of politics, let alone seasoned players like JDU give a NINE MONTH DEADILINE.

That is why I would tend to agree with Ramana garu,

So first win and then things can be settled.

People are distributing the cake before it has been baked. Time for everyone to take a reality check.

RajeshA · Post by **RajeshA** » 15 Apr 2013 22:06

I personally am in favor of Modi breaking away from JD(U). I can't say how prudent that would be. But if BJP goes full out to grab JD(U) caste-based vote-banks of EBC by projecting Modi loudly as being one of them, plus try to nurture local leaders from the community, then the EBCs can come into play for BJP. Also the Hindu-Muslim polarization would keep other Hindu castes part of the BJP mix. One can also splinter JD(U). Also BJP should start taking some of the credit for Bihar's development.

BJP should try to take out JD(U) completely out of the Bihar picture and take its position.

Now should be the time to go after the EBCs and by activating BJP's local leaders from these caste groups. BJP needs to go into election drive now. Go for JD(U)'s jugular.

After Lok Sabha elections, splinter JD(U) in the Assembly and make a BJP government there. Nitish should be forced into sanyaas.

member_22539 · Post by **member_22539** » 15 Apr 2013 22:27

Supratik · Post by **Supratik** » 15 Apr 2013 22:30

You have also to consider regional politics. Nitish is Bihari, Modi is not. For an outsider to take on a local even if he is EBC is not easy.
I was watching Timesnow. The Akali guy said PM should be decided post-polls. I agree with this view. Modi can be the face of the campaign. He must be made head of the campaign committee. JD(U) must be told that Modi has every right to campaign regardless of who is PM.

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 15 Apr 2013 22:34

Winning is more important now than who becomes PM.

LKA can sabotage the outcome very badly. A misplaced word here and there he can sink/torpedo the chances.
So let him think he is tallest leader etc and pull his weight.

anmol · Post by **anmol** » 15 Apr 2013 22:35

Guys Ashish Khetan (Tehelka+Headlines Today)... have found 7000+ PCR records post godhra incident. Headlines Today is running those records... claiming that Gujarat government had claimed that these record got destroyed.

This is happening day after NiKu's comments. On the day Zakia Jafri filed plea against closure report that gave clean chit to NaMo. Yashwant is calling LKA the tallest leader.

Coincidence ? Or Cong had this.. and is working with LKA... so that these tapes would motivate SC to accept Zakia's plea and NaMo will be out of race ?