India Nuclear News And Discussion

amit · Post by **amit** » 01 Jul 2011 08:32

geeth wrote:If NSG is so strict with their rules, why did they allow China-Paki deal to come into existance? IMO, this deal 9China-Paki) has done more good to our nuclear interests with NSG and other players in the field - so much so that we can point at China - Paki deal, every time some NSG member like NZ cry foul when India negotiates something with nuklear dalals of the world. Reality may be somewhat different with unkeel around, but at least we have something to argue about.

Geeth as far as I know NSG rules are voluntary and that body can do diddly squat if member breaks the rules. But you're right China did set a useful precedent for us to us. However, all indications till now seem to point to the fact that the Russians and the French are not adverse to sharing ENR stuff with us. If the US demurs tough luck to GE and Westinghouse.

somnath · Post by **somnath** » 01 Jul 2011 08:47

geeth wrote:If NSG is so strict with their rules, why did they allow China-Paki deal to come into existance?

You might want to refer back to the post made earlier...That has the answer..

Second, what are these NSG "guidelines", of the sort that the recent meeting of NSG passed w.r.t ENR tech? These are "voluntary" guidelines that members are expected to follow while trading with other countries..

Ergo, each member nation is really "free" to carry on as they jolly well wish, technically speaking..We have had numerous instances of that...Russia supplying fuel for Tarapur in 2001, when 32 out of 34 members of NSG then publicly commented that the action would circumvent Russia's NSG commitments...Or indeed, Kudunkulum 1/2, which technically could be argued were outside NSG guidelines...More recently, China's supply of Chashma 1/2 (and now 2 more) to Pak could be described similarly...

The question therefore is, if everything is "voluntary", why bother? What is the big deal about the NSG "waiver"? the answer, simply is, "institutional shame", if I may use that word..While NSG is a voluntary group, its members have sworn collectively to implement a set of non-proliferation guidelines...Therefore, every time a member of group chooses to do a trade that clearly "violates" the guidelines, it marks itself out as an 'exception"....Given the optics, no country wants to be known publicly as a serial "violator", not on an issue as touchy as nuke proliferation in the international context. (mind you, one is not talking of AQ Khan style proliferation, which is anyway outside the "system")...

Hence, each trade of that sort becomes a political battle to be fought...And diplomatic credits encashed....Russia's fuel supplies to Tarapur, or Kudumkulum, or indeed Chashma by China - each deal involved enormous amounts of public posturing, diplomatic battles...Net net, its not a scalable model if people are interested in scaling up trade...

amit wrote:However, having said that, it must also be said that this recent ENR ruling is a shifting of goalpost and so in a way backtracking by the US which was either unwilling or incapable of stopping this being pushed by those haughty mid tier NSG members

To be honest, it isnt about the "mid tier" members only...The ENR question was problematic (with the US) even when the deal was being negotiated..As I mentioned in the earlier post, everyone got around it by simply ignoring it..So ENR inclusion wasnt made explicit in the "waiver" (as also in 123), but a loose terminology of "advanced nuke tech" was..India purported that to be grandfathering ENR as well, in other words, open to interpretation...And various people interpreted it favourably enough, including the Russians...

This new ENR business has been in the works for quite a while, and really the issue was with a couple of Latam countries..

Whatever the issue was, there is an impact, more optical, but an impact on India...But it isnt anything that was "unknown", we knew the problems from the begining..And given that NSG guidelines are voluntary, we expected to counter any problems on a bilteral basis...Which is what it has come to now, and which is what we would need to do..

wig · Post by **wig** » 01 Jul 2011 09:24

US firmly backs NSG clean waiver to India

The United States today assured New Delhi that it “strongly and vehemently” supported the clean waiver given to India by the Nuclear Suppliers’ Group (NSG) in September 2008 to undertake nuclear commerce.

“I want to say that the US and the Obama Administration strongly and vehemently support the clean waiver to India. The 123 civil nuclear legislation also underscores our support for India in this debate that is going on and our law also points to the clean waiver for India,” outgoing American Ambassador to India Timothy J Roemer told reporters here.

His comments brought a sigh of relief in South Block in the backdrop of the recent decision of the NSG at its meeting in the Netherlands to push for more stringent norms for access to enrichment and reprocessing (ENR) technology by countries which are not signatories to the NPT.

http://www.tribuneindia.com/2011/20110701/main1.htm

wig · Post by **wig** » 01 Jul 2011 09:26

while le PM says France, Russia committed on nuke tech transfer

In his interaction with print media editors on Wednesday, Manmohan Singh revealed that French President Nicolas Sarkozy had made a specific commitment to him that he would honour the commitment to supply India with enrichment technology.

“During my visit to France last July, the issue that some people were trying to modify Nuclear Suppliers Group guidelines (that nuclear enrichment technology should not be sold to non-NPT countries) came up at the banquet hosted by President Sarkozy. And the President assured me, in front of all the people present, that ‘you can take it from me, I am willing to go public that we (France) stand by our commitments’,” Manmohan Singh told the editors. He also stated that Russia had made a similar commitment.

http://www.tribuneindia.com/2011/20110701/main1.htm

Sanku · Post by **Sanku** » 01 Jul 2011 09:38

amit wrote:
Sanku wrote:However the rest of us can have a meaningful discussion.
Your capacity for meaningful discussion is legendary.

Did you feel it this time too? As hot gas generation happened?

Try the pranayam's suggested by Baba Ramdev, I think they will help.

Sanku · Post by **Sanku** » 01 Jul 2011 09:49

gakakkad wrote:since india already has decent reproc capability enrt bs will not create any trouble. Besides france and ruskies have committed to sharing

Well, you need to fix your posting language on BRF frankly. SMS speak is not particularly well suited for the forum. That said, let me take the substantive part of what you said here ---

India has decent reprocessing capability? Yes.

However does that mean the rest follows? NO.

Why? Remember the promised GOAL was "full and clean membership" -- which means a P 6 status (preferably overtly stated) --

Now ENR restrictions do not remotely qualify as that. "Kaam chal jayega" (we will manage somehow) is NOT the same as full and clean exemption. In that sense Man mohan has carried out a significant fraud (so whats new) on Indian people (whose overt symptom was cash for votes)

Now although this has been discussed before let me quickly reiterate -- why do we need a full and clean exemption?

In order to build both technology (know how) and capacity (number of units) for reprocessing and ANY AND ALL nuclear technologies under FULL INDIAN OWNERSHIP of both technology and units. Such that the know how could be EASILY MIGRATED to any all spaces of nuclear activity that we saw fit.

We are not even REMOTELY close to that goal.

somnath · Post by **somnath** » 01 Jul 2011 10:07

We have some incredible claims being made here..

NSG "waiver" = P6 membership..

Membership of the "official nuke weapons" club is not in NSG domain at all - it is an NPT construct...And India has refused to sign the NPT precisely on that ground...Unofficially, membership of the "club" is open to anyone who demonstrates (or threatens to) the capability...Pak, NoKo, Israel and India have done that...NSG clean "waiver" was about coming on stream with the global civilian nuclear order, without giving up the weapons capability...Nothing to do with getting official nuke weapons status under NPT..India's was a unique case, and we did it...

Trading in ENR tech = Indian "ownership" of the tech, and use for it in "any activity"...

Well, the first proposition is stupid, as NSG does not supply any tech to anyone..Member countries having the right tech do...Even if NSG qualifies a country as "kosher" for nuke trade, it is not obligatory for any member nation to trade with it..Ad if they do, it is not obligatory for any nation that has the tech to "trasnfer" the tech fully, or partially, or in ny defined manner...It is a bilateral commercial contract, and the buyer and seller enter into terms that are haggled over - those terms are seldom in the public domain...NSG only defines the guidelines that countries need to abide by, after which these are upto member countires...

the second is even more disingenuous...Presumably "any activity" refers to weapons related programme...No country supplies weapons related tech to another country under "civilian" trading norms...(and non civilian trading is anyway outside the scope of any NSG or IAEA guidelines - whether Paki-Chinese cooperation on bombs, or Indo-Russian on sub reactors)...The ENR trading being spoken of in the NSG context is for civilian uses, under IAEA safeguards....

But then, whoever suspected the "usual suspects" of being thorough with data?

Sanku · Post by **Sanku** » 01 Jul 2011 10:19

No dear Somnath, may be the English language works differently for you compared to rest of us

But the claim was not

somnath wrote:We have some incredible claims being made here..

NSG "waiver" = P6 membership..

The claim was FULL P 6 rights. Whether through waiver or whatever is irrelevant. The mechanics are completely irrelevant.

The rest of your post is of similar quality as the basic starting premise, a TOTAL and COMPLETE lack of any correctness and sense.

Yes I know there is a compelling need to spin words so has to establish "freedom is slavery" but trying to twist the original authors word in the authors presence takes a substantial capability.

gakakkad · Post by **gakakkad** » 01 Jul 2011 10:52

@ Sanku -

I have taken your objections of abbreviated posting language into account and will no longer use the same in posting here.

NSG is a consensus group , ie every member has a veto power. To give the India the waiver in 2008 consent had to be taken even from insignificant countries. If there is a proposal to ban India from ENRT trade it will need permission from Russia and France even . They will never give the consent. Because they stand to gain the most out of the deal.

US has clearly stated that it will not share its ENRT with anyone. It has not even shared it with its little doggy , The UK . The Indian doctrine for future nuclear energy would be to use fast breeder reactors . And for these we will have to go alone .As no country has been successful in them so far. Maximum success has come from Russia and France. NOT FROM the US. Similarly Russian and French fuel cycle tech is more developed than the Americans .

We have the Technology but we lack a rapid production capacity for reactors. Indian industries are expected to grow @ 15 % + per annum through the decade. For that kind of growth to be possible we need huge power generation capacity . It does not matter whether GE or Westinghouse supplies the reactor or Areva or Atomenergoprom supplies them . I would not mind having 2 o3 from each of them in addition to 4 or 5 indigenous one's from nuclear power corp of India .

The NSG is not legally binding to Russia or France . There is no mechanism that prevents Russian transfer of ENRT . What will anyone do if Russia sell us the stuff in any case ? Was Killton successful in preventing Russia to give us the cryogenic rockets engines ? Even though MTCR regimen was arguably applicable . What has any one done to china for open proliferation of nuke weapons reactors to Porkiland ?

There is absolutely no likely hood of India testing in the next 2 decades . 2030 onward the geo politics would be tilted in Indian favour. By then our thorium and FBR TECH would be surely be taken care of making us almost self reliant . What the deal will hel us is to support the rapid industrial expansion till 2035 .

And as Somnath sir said , the agreements are bilateral with individual countries and not with the NSG . The NSG is just a way to "legitimise" and "moralise" nuclear trade. It is not an all powerful organization . It even consists of countries like Australia that lack even a single power generating reactor .

India has more reactors under construction than any other country . Clearly the deal has helped us.

amit · Post by **amit** » 01 Jul 2011 10:59

Sanku wrote:The claim was FULL P 6 rights.

If you don't put a reference to that then as usual folks will assume:

Sanku wrote:your post is of similar quality as the basic starting premise, a TOTAL and COMPLETE lack of any correctness and sense.

amit · Post by **amit** » 01 Jul 2011 11:04

Sanku wrote:Try the pranayam's suggested by Baba Ramdev, I think they will help.

Mea culpa Sanku Maharaj.

I had predicted that you would blow in Maniovadis, 2G and Lok Pal into a discussion on the recent NSG ruling on ENR. However, I had forgotten about Baba Ramdev. You just corrected that.

If you are a betting man would you like to wager one rupee that if the combo of Thackeray junior and Vandanna Shiva and her ilk allow the French plant to come up in Jaitapur then along with it will come ENR?

Come one stand up for your convictions! Be a sport and accept the bet.

amit · Post by **amit** » 01 Jul 2011 11:13

gakakkad wrote:The NSG is not legally binding to Russia or France . There is no mechanism that prevents Russian transfer of ENRT . What will anyone do if Russia sell us the stuff in any case ? Was Killton successful in preventing Russia to give us the cryogenic rockets engines ? Even though MTCR regimen was arguably applicable . What has any one done to china for open proliferation of nuke weapons reactors to Porkiland ?

>
>
>
India has more reactors under construction than any other country . Clearly the deal has helped us.

Gakakkad Saab,

Please do note that Sanku ji is one of our senior-most and respected contributors. So please read and re-read and then after some time read again what he writes. You may at some point of time come to the : "Oh sh!t is that what it meant!" moment.

Regarding your post you are spot on in your well-argued post particularly about the ENR being a bilateral issue.

However I do have to point out one small factual error. India does have the most reactors under construction. It's China which has the most. As usual, while we waffle, agonise about Fukushima and admire the Germans for playing around with the surplus generation capabilities and egg on the demonstration against construction of N-power plants, the Chinese are ploughing on with new constructions.

somnath · Post by **somnath** » 01 Jul 2011 11:22

gakakkad wrote:Was Killton successful in preventing Russia to give us the cryogenic rockets engines ? Even though MTCR regimen was arguably applicable

MTCR is a similar "voluntary" regime...So when Russia enetered into the agreement on cryo engines, they did so in full knowledge of that fact..The fact that the deal was partially scuttled later had noting to do with MTCR, but US pressure on Russia, which post-1990 was hugely influential...

gakakkad · Post by **gakakkad** » 01 Jul 2011 11:25

amit wrote:
Gakakkad Saab,

Please do note that Sanku ji is one of our senior-most and respected contributors. So please read and re-read and then after some time read again what he writes. You may at some point of time come to the : "Oh sh!t is that what it meant!" moment.

point noted

Regarding your post you are spot on in your well-argued post particularly about the ENR being a bilateral issue.

thank you

However I do have to point out one small factual error. India does have the most reactors under construction. It's China which has the most. As usual, while we waffle, agonise about Fukushima and admire the Germans for playing around with the surplus generation capabilities and egg on the demonstration against construction of N-power plants, the Chinese are ploughing on with new constructions.

why do i keep forgetting chipanda ? But India is 2nd . if jaitapur materialises india will become 1st in terms of power generated by new plants . As jaitapur is almost 10 gw . Yes , we have more pacifists , commies and left wingers than I can be comfortable with .

gakakkad · Post by **gakakkad** » 01 Jul 2011 11:29

somnath wrote:
gakakkad wrote:Was Killton successful in preventing Russia to give us the cryogenic rockets engines ? Even though MTCR regimen was arguably applicable
MTCR is a similar "voluntary" regime...So when Russia enetered into the agreement on cryo engines, they did so in full knowledge of that fact..The fact that the deal was partially scuttled later had noting to do with MTCR, but US pressure on Russia, which post-1990 was hugely influential...

Yes . But US is no longer that influential . And as u said MTCR == NSG WITH RESPECT TO them being voluntary . But we did manage to get the cryo s eventually . Its sad that whenever Clinton visits India he is treated as a hero .

Sanku · Post by **Sanku** » 01 Jul 2011 11:34

gakakkad wrote: NSG is a consensus group , ie every member has a veto power. To give the India the waiver in 2008 consent had to be taken even from insignificant countries.

Kakkad-ji you must realize, that NSG being a consensus group is merely window dressing. NSG was formed by US after 1974 with the express purpose of blocking India from developing in the Nuclear field.

To this end it asked all its Munna to sign up (all expect France, Russia and China) -- of this China has not particular interest in seeing India grow.

France and Russia are co opted. They have no reason to pick a fight against overwhelming odds to support India.

If there is a proposal to ban India from ENRT trade it will need permission from Russia and France even . They will never give the consent. Because they stand to gain the most out of the deal.

No there is no proposal to ban India, the ban ALEADY exists, and its execution has been massively strengthened. It might be worth thinking why France and Russia went along so far.

Clearly the hope that France and Russia will be able to break out of the NSG structure and be able to help India unilateral is not founded because its not born out by either past or present actions.

Yes Russia (and USSR) in the past has gone out on a limb and taken steps to provide India with help even at the risk of running afoul. But that relationship is being killed (from Indian end) as we speak. They will have progressively lesser interest in helping us.

Further more, you keep going on about "buy this, buy that" -- what you dont realize is that if we go into "buy this, buy that" mode, we are getting into the same mode where we are trying to move away from in Defence.

Everyone will have us by short and curlies, will control what we do with the equipment, and nurture a culture of dependence.

A large section of Indian population in all segments believes that wanton purchase of questionable technology on unfavorable terms in quite damaging, and not at all good for India.

So lets do a reality check --

Do we have INDEPENDENCE in nuclear field? -- NO

Are we moving towards a rapid case of extreme dependence -- YES.

Will we get things we need at suitable price even after the compromises of dependence -- So far not seen.

Sanku · Post by **Sanku** » 01 Jul 2011 11:37

amit wrote: Regarding your post you are spot on in your well-argued post particularly about the ENR being a bilateral issue.

ENR being a bilateral issue and NSG being a consensus group is saying that UN is a democratic body which jointly decides on critical international issue in terms which reflects aspirations of global population.

In short snake-oil sold by powerful to hide their power games behind some screen of morality.

The naive and simple believe it, those who understand real world know its BULL CRAP.

Those who neither naive but still say things like this are from state department of Govt of US and such

Sanku · Post by **Sanku** » 01 Jul 2011 11:46

amit wrote: Come one stand up for your convictions! Be a sport and accept the bet.

I am already standing for my convictions, however since the whole concept is alien to you, you just dont realize it when you see it.

Also your sport of constantly and deliberately twisting words said by others and then indulging in discussions of comprehension (as commonly shared traits in certain circles it seems) -- is not my game.

amit · Post by **amit** » 01 Jul 2011 12:48

^^^^^^

Aha I see, the offer for a friendly bet was not taken up vis a vis ENR and the French.

Also the request for a back up with a link to this claim

The claim was FULL P 6 rights.

was studiously ignored, all the while hectoring about snake oil. Pah!

Sanku · Post by **Sanku** » 01 Jul 2011 13:00

amit wrote:^^^^^^
Aha I see, the offer for a friendly bet was not taken up vis a vis ENR and the French.

I have placed my bets on the table long back and they are all turning out the right ones...

amit · Post by **amit** » 01 Jul 2011 13:08

Sanku wrote:
amit wrote:^^^^^^
Aha I see, the offer for a friendly bet was not taken up vis a vis ENR and the French.
I have placed my bets on the table long back and they are all turning out the right ones...

So I take it you are betting on the following:

The French will not give ENR even after they sign the deal for Jaitapur and construct the power plant

Good I'll be archiving this post for later use.

Meanwhile lies, bloody lies (as per Sanku ji)

NEW DELHI: As India looks at its civil nuclear partners to fulfill their commitments in the light of NSG's decision to ban transfer of enrichment and reprocessing (ENR) technology to NPT non-signatories, a move being seen as eating into the clean waiver to India by NSG in 2008 for carrying out nuclear commerce, Russia has come out unambiguously in support of New Delhi. Sources in the Russian embassy in Delhi told TOI on Wednesday that Moscow is going to implement all its commitments made under the Russia-India civil nuclear pact irrespective of the NSG guidelines.

As PM Manmohan Singh has himself said earlier the nuclear deal with Russia goes beyond supply of reactors "to areas of research and development and a whole range of areas in nuclear energy". Along with the US and France, Russia is India's most significant nuclear partner.

"There is not much clarity about the new guidelines as yet. We strictly follow all our international obligations over the issue of non-proliferation and, at the same time, we also honour our bilateral agreements in the field of peaceful uses of nuclear energy. We can say that we are going to implement all our commitments made in the civil nuclear deal with India," said Russian embassy sources while elaborating for the first time Moscow's stand after the fresh NSG development.

Did someone say that ENR was not a bilateral issue?

PS: Downhill skiing about the P6 claim, no links offered and issue dropped like a hot potato.

Sanku · Post by **Sanku** » 01 Jul 2011 13:18

You are posting a report about Moscow to contradict something according to you I said about French?

===================

My god, why do I get into these discussions, after knowing full well that too..

amit · Post by **amit** » 01 Jul 2011 14:00

Another wiggle, wiggle to get out!

Don't worry the bet on the French still stands.

I bet one rupee that if they are allowed to set up Jaitapur by Thackeray junior and Vandanna Shiva's gang, ENR tech will come as part of the deal.

You have stated that you don't believe so.

Let's see who's right!

The Russia report was just to show that ENR will be decided on a bilateral level as so it will be, according to the report.

But anyway in the absence of any new information, there's no point going on and on. And so Cheers!

amit · Post by **amit** » 01 Jul 2011 14:01

Sanku wrote:My god, why do I get into these discussions, after knowing full well that too..

Incidentally, you get into these discussions because you make outrageous claims and get nailed for them.

Trust me its all a part of a grand Maniovadi conspiracy to silence you!

Philip · Post by **Philip** » 01 Jul 2011 14:08

Has any one posted Bharat Karnad's piece today,I thinkl in the NIExp. of TOI on India being a "soft" N-power at the mercy of the N-club,whose aim is to castarate India's N-capability,both N-weapons and indigenous N-industry?

Austin · Post by **Austin** » 01 Jul 2011 14:37

Clean waiver: NSG ban a betrayal, says Anil Kakodkar

gakakkad · Post by **gakakkad** » 01 Jul 2011 16:14

@ Sanku - Both of us (an in fact all the members of this forum ) are in agreement that NSG is an eyewash . I also agree that international diplomacy by very nature is selfish . A typical diplomatic bandwagon of a country is a eclectic mixture of careerist diplomats and chauvinists who formulate international doctrines . First thing is that not all of our nuclear reactors will be under IAEA safe guard. We have research reactors and military reactors. As Kakodkar said adequate precautions have been taken . I also agree that the nuclear deal is indirectly an "h&d" blow for us . Why else would I be on BR @ 6 o clock in the morning when I have an opportunity to sleep for 1 hour before the morning rounds start. Because I am sick of some of the indirect remarks made by my residency director about India . I have a few chinese colleague's who talked endlessly about the bullet train that they their motherland started . And their " Dont wont worry India will achieve bullet train in a decades time" expression sickens me . But sometimes we have to be realistic . We need rapid industrialization . We simply do not have the capacity to generate power that is needed .Our growth in power generation is only 6 % per annum . I am not saying that we should give away the independence to these foreign companies . I only recommend buying 10-12 odd reactors in the next 20 years from out side. That will not do us any harm . It will still take sometime to develop the thorium fuel cycle based reactors . Fast breeder's that can practically produce large amounts of energy are still 2 decades away.No country in the world has done it successfully . And a Fusion based reactor may only remain in the realm of science fiction . We are undoing decades of mess made by pre liberalisation politicians . Not everything will be pleasant. Sometimes we have to swallow our pride to do what is right. The next 2 decades are crucial for Indian industry . We just need the deal till 2030. Beyond that it will out live its usefulness . The geo political arena will not be anywhere similar to what it is now. I wish to practise in India after finishing education . And I hope that my kids dont even consider leaving India for educational or career opportunities.

As far as enrt is concerned no country ever shares it . US ,Russia ,france and India are the only countries with decent enrt . The areva plant (COGEMA La Hague site) does business for japan ,netherlands ,italy etc besides France. It is located in an french island. The spent fuel of these countries comes all the way to France to get treated. There is no way Areva will permit transfer of their intellectual property to India .As its a private company . But the thing is that environmentalist are clamouring for shutting down the facility . So (my thoughts) they may transfer ops to India . Thats what Sarkozy may have implied when he committed ENRT . Uncles biggest ENRT facility are in oak bridge TN and in Idaho. These are more likely to be civilian facilities . As they are well known in public domain. They do undertake several decent research projects. Russia has got massive facilities . It will give us some help . Though not their highest tech.No one will share their best stuff. They have a fuel sharing agreement with Panda ,ie a small enrt facility in china. This is the best we can expect. Branch office or kiosk would be an adequate analogy .
India lacks decent capacity in enrichment . But is good @ reprocessing via PUREX (CONSIDER THIS chaiwala info). The capacity will improve greatly .in 20 years time

Sanku · Post by **Sanku** » 01 Jul 2011 16:34

Austin wrote:Clean waiver: NSG ban a betrayal, says Anil Kakodkar

NSG ban a betrayal say Kakodakar. Pity Sanjay Baru is not around as press adviser to bad mouth him any longer. The bad mouthers on BRF have longer shelf life in contrast.

Sanku · Post by **Sanku** » 01 Jul 2011 16:35

Philip wrote:Has any one posted Bharat Karnad's piece today,I thinkl in the NIExp. of TOI on India being a "soft" N-power at the mercy of the N-club,whose aim is to castarate India's N-capability,both N-weapons and indigenous N-industry?

Not yet, please do the honors Sir.

ravar · Post by **ravar** » 01 Jul 2011 16:38

Philip wrote:Has any one posted Bharat Karnad's piece today,I thinkl in the NIExp. of TOI on India being a "soft" N-power at the mercy of the N-club,whose aim is to castarate India's N-capability,both N-weapons and indigenous N-industry?

I had read it in the print edition today morning and thought it would have been already posted here by now. Anyway, here it is-

Destroying nuclear India

Sanku · Post by **Sanku** » 01 Jul 2011 16:51

gakakkad wrote:@ Sanku - Both of us (an in fact all the members of this forum ) are in agreement that NSG is an eyewash .

Well I am glad we agree on that.

However,

First thing is that not all of our nuclear reactors will be under IAEA safe guard. We have research reactors and military reactors. As Kakodkar said adequate precautions have been taken .

That is true, but we took that hit in order to ensure that we had no string attached in the future. Unfortunately that has not happened.

I also agree that the nuclear deal is indirectly an "h&d" blow for us .

Its not a H&D blow. I dont care about H&D AT ALL. The blow is deeper as Bharat Karnad and Bramha Chellany have been pointing out.

Why else would I be on BR @ 6 o clock in the morning when I have an opportunity to sleep for 1 hour before the morning rounds start. Because I am sick of some of the indirect remarks made by my residency director about India .

You then to sleep my friend then. Seriously. Dont let this get to you.

And their " Dont wont worry India will achieve bullet train in a decades time" expression sickens me .

We really do not need to worry what the Chinese expressions are like. If a Chinese told me that in any way, my response would be "then I hope to god never"

The Chinese train is a merely H&D tool. A useless toy for people to preen and feel good about. There are a lot of articles on how the Chinese train will be like great wall, very nice to see but rather useless in doing anything practical.

I only recommend buying 10-12 odd reactors in the next 20 years from out side That will not do us any harm ..

First off I would say what you said above is a more reasonable way of thought than that has been touted by UPA. The thing is the nuclear imports in reality are not going to be active for next 20 years (best case) -- given how things are. So really speaking we are talking about perhaps (since there are too many open questions about how practical that import process is for power generation) -- some extra power from Nuclear plants in 20 years time at best.

Our make/break would have already happened till then. We need a profusion of small distributed power plants NOW.

This chimera (promised by the govt) has already harmed us by promising moon in some 10000000000 years to people who need food now.

The Govt is NOT SERIOUS ABOUT POWER. It has shown ZERO intrests in trying to solve the low hanging fruits in power sector.

Clearly the UPA govt has no intention of actually improving power. The import is merely a thank you from Man mohan to his friends in US and else where.

This is NOT a H&D issue.

As far as enrt is concerned no country ever shares it . US ,Russia ,france and India are the only countries with decent enrt .

If that was the case, NSG would not have to go out of its way to make a regime to explicitly deny India technology.

Clearly something is missing in the vehement effort to keep India down.

So (my thoughts) they may transfer ops to India . Thats what Sarkozy may have implied when he committed ENRT

The issue is not AREVA running their dangerous junk yard in India under their supervision. So we get to do the dirty work while they retain control.

The issue is that Indian Nuclear establishment must be able to access the best available if they can pay for it and interact at equal footing.

That is what is needed -- the explicit bans are nothing but a effort to create dependency and castrate us. There is no getting away from that.

And this is not a H&D issue. This is very much a development issue. Do we want a future of cooliedom or independent strength. Such choices.

somnath · Post by **somnath** » 01 Jul 2011 17:49

ravar wrote:Destroying nuclear India

Unfortunately, Bharat Karnad says nothing newer than his well known pet points..His primary point is this..

a gullible Manmohan Singh into converting the ‘voluntary moratorium’ on nuclear testing, thoughtlessly announced by the Bharatiya Janata Party prime minister Atal Bihari Vajpayee, into a binding commitment to desist from testing again and to abide by the NPT norms.

The bolded section is completely wrong - I dont know how someone like BK can make this mistake...Nowhere in either 123, or the "waiver", or in the Additional Protocol with IAEA has India spoken of abiding by "NPT norms"..

Now about testing, as BK himslef mentioned, the moratorium on testing was announced by ABV govt soon after Shakti..This deal does nothing incremental on that at all...In the NSG draft (attached here), all that India has done is to reiterate the same voluntary commitment...

Here is the text of the NSG statement and the US 123 agreement..
http://www.armscontrol.org/system/files ... tement.pdf
http://responsiblenucleartrade.com/keyd ... t_text.pdf

What effectively happens is that if India tests, US has the option of withdrawing all cooperation...Compare it with the situation pre-deal..We had a voluntary moratorium on, and there was no cooperation!

Further, US can approach the NSG to "ban" India again if we test, but that decision has to be taken unanimously..What chances are there that France, Russia (old friend?!) et al will go by American diktats?

Here is the nub of the issue- we converted a ceteris paribus condition (moratorium) into an advantage by documenting it in the NSG waiver....If that is consrued as a "giviing up of an option", well...

ignored the home-grown solution for energy independence, envisaged by Bhabha, based on interlocked first stage pressurised heavy water reactors, second stage breeder reactors (now in the take-off phase), and third stage thorium reactors (the prototype ‘Kamini’ 40MW experimental operating in Kalpakkam, which requires more concept, design, and engineering work and upscaling). Instead, Manmohan Singh’s purchasing 40 foreign reactors worth $150 billion (at today’s dollar value) producing 40,000 MW of electricity by 2050, will at once sustain the nuclear industries in America, France and Russia, and provide Washington the handle to keep India in line

There is absolutely no evidence of the above, ie, India "abandoning" the 3 stage programme....In fact, we do know now (through Srikumar Bannerjee) that India has an additional LWR project, whcih will benefit immensely rom foreign tech..

While the US has delivered little, India has gone whole-hog in implementing such self-injurious pre-conditions as separating the weapons units from civilian-use facilities, thereby destroying the integrity of the once dual-purpose nuclear energy programme, and putting the bulk of the indigenous pressurised reactors under international safeguards in perpetuity. This last, besides killing the capacity for surge weapon-grade plutonium production, has cemented India’s status as a non-nuclear weapon state.

Strange - what is defined as "bulk"? There are 8 PHWR power plants that are outside safeguards, and 14 are to be placed under safeguards by 2014...Technically, every single indigeneous reactor can be kept outside safeguards....

A last reiteration on tech trade - NSG waiver or no waiver, no one can force NSG memebrs to trade...So if countries are unwilling to trade in ENR, no NSG guideline can force them to..If they are willing, with the current status of India, ENR tech will be part of the larger bilateral deal in any case...

Net net, bad optics, but hardly debilitating..In fact, on expected lines (refer to the history of the ENR clause in the nuke deal in the post above)...

Amber G. · Post by **Amber G.** » 01 Jul 2011 19:10

Somnath - Thanks for last few excellent posts.
I have a few posts in International Nuclear Watch & Discussion thread about recent poll among "energy policy elites" in US and news of renewal or NRC licences to US plants which may be of interest in the Indian context.

somnath · Post by **somnath** » 01 Jul 2011 20:00

^^^The poll is certainly interesting...As the dust settles on Fukushima, people who need to take calls on energy mix will be forced to weigh the costs and benefits as they are, not as they are "sloganeered" to be...

UBanerjee · Post by **UBanerjee** » 01 Jul 2011 20:29

Somnathji, thanks for the clear and explanatory posts.

Sanku · Post by **Sanku** » 01 Jul 2011 20:58

somnath wrote:
ravar wrote:Destroying nuclear India
Unfortunately, Bharat Karnad says nothing newer than his well known pet points..His primary point is this..
.

Ah Dear Somanth, how predictable, as I said before people will take from anything what is in their capability to take, I would say I am amused you can take only one line from that excellent article, however given your past post extolling Paki virtues and Indian stupidity, this is par for the course.

I really hope that people who are really interested in Indian interest go into the details of the article that BK wrote.

Here are some meaningful points and not a hatchet job of taking one arbitrary line and spinning it to high heavens.

Manmohan Singh has thus jeopardised the country’s strategic nuclear security — because the 1998 thermonuclear test was a dud, absence of further testing will translate into unproven, unreliable, and unsafe fusion weapons and a strategic deterrent lacking in thermonuclear credibility, and ignored the home-grown solution for energy independence, envisaged by Bhabha, based on interlocked first stage pressurised heavy water reactors, second stage breeder reactors (now in the take-off phase), and third stage thorium reactors (the prototype ‘Kamini’ 40MW experimental operating in Kalpakkam, which requires more concept, design, and engineering work and upscaling).

Instead, Manmohan Singh’s purchasing 40 foreign reactors worth $150 billion (at today’s dollar value) producing 40,000 MW of electricity by 2050, will at once sustain the nuclear industries in America, France and Russia, and provide Washington the handle to keep India in line. Resumption of testing, say, will prompt immediate cut-off of uranium fuel, resulting in rapid shutdown of foreign reactors and precipitous fall of power in the grid

.

Amber G. · Post by **Amber G.** » 01 Jul 2011 22:19

Amit, along with the news item you posted about Russia, there was a report about France too in the news..
NSG decision won''t undermine N cooperation with India: France

France, a key member of the Nuclear Suppliers Group, today said the recent decision of the 46-nation grouping to strengthen guidelines on transfer of enrichment and reprocessing (ENR) technology would in no way undermine its bilateral cooperation with India in the field. French Ambassador to India Jerome Bonnafont said his country is "committed to the full implementation" of the cooperation
<snip>

gakakkad · Post by **gakakkad** » 01 Jul 2011 22:48

Thanks Somnath for clear cut interpretation .

@ Sanku - I can assure you that indigenous research on all aspects remains intact after the deal. I can also assure you that most indigenous facilities are not under the safeguard. Besides the amount of fuel needed for weapons is a fraction of the amount needed for energy .

The last thing we should be doing is testing . We made several mistakes on the nuclear front. First and foremost we waited for 24 after 1974 for our second test . We don't need H-Bomb for minimal credible deterrence. Our fission and boosted fission design are decent enough even in warhead config . (what was tested in 98 was warhead design ) . Having said that our Fusion devices too might be quite reliable due to simulation testing . In the 98 test the warhead design was 200 megaton which was restricted to 48 Megaton for the testing purpose . (a village was 5 km in proximity) . The mistake that we made in 98 was to not conduct tests then and then itself .

Considering the low probability of a nuclear war we need not test any weapons right now. In fact India was offered help in 1950s for nuke weapons but Jawaharlal refused .

I would rather concentrate on Industrial development and power generation than test bombs @ this stage. We have missed several opportunities when we could have perfected the bombs .

negi · Post by **negi** » 01 Jul 2011 22:58

^ This is the usual lame argument played infinite times over and over again unfortunately if one is able to see things as they are and take a cue from history the fact remains countries who wish to test just do it; development , gdp and other things have got nothing to do with it. There is nothing to argue here unless of course if one is a chankian he might see things differently but then so does anyone who is high on LSD.

abhischekcc · Post by **abhischekcc** » 01 Jul 2011 23:50

gakakkad,

Your post is a great example of blame transference and otherwise missing the point.
By stating repeatedly that India made mistakes in the nuclear front, you are trying to bolster the case that somehow it justifies the nuclear castration now. It does not.

The truth is that MMS has been the biggest enemy of India's independence in nuclear power and weapons. He destroyed domestic uranium mining by refusing to allocate funds to it when he was FM. Then, this lack of domestic uranium mining was held up as an example of how domestic uranium mining has 'failed' and how India desperately needs to bow to west to fulfill its uranium needs. And while this nuclear deal drama was going on, MMS refused to talk to countries that offered uraium without preconditions (IIRC, Kazakhastan and an African country, perhaps Nigeria). If that does not sound like treason, what does?