West Asia News and Discussions

[shyamd]

I think the key problem that is slowly coming up is - does the regime in Egypt want to be islamic or a civil society with a separate constitution? Depends who you ask, some say that Tantawi will kill and destroy people to maintain the status quo. This is the next phase of the revolution.

---------
Whichever way you think about it, Assad is gone.... if he magically turns democratic. people will ask for a full investigation into the matter etc. In the end, he will have to go. He has crossed the point of no return now. But make no mistake he will kill soo many people. You can be sure of that.

This area has a history of it.

[shyamd]

How terror funds are pumped in from Saudi

August 11, 2011 16:01 IST

The interrogation of former president of the banned Students' Islamic Movement of India [ Images ] Syed Salahuddin Salar has confirmed that a major part of the terror financing for subversive activities in India come from Saudi Arabia.

Salar, who is lodged in a Hyderabad jail for his alleged role in the Dilsukhnagar Sri Saibaba temple bomb blast case in 2002, has been interrogated by the police as well as the Intelligence Bureau over the past couple of days.

Although he denies any role in the blast case, he points out that Saudi Arabia continues to be a major financer for terror in India.


The officers who have been interrogating him say that he is aware of various things in relation to the SIMI [ Images ]. He also speaks about how Gulf is a major meeting point for big terror operatives to plan and execute attacks.

He, however, denies that Dubai [ Images ] is a major hub for such operatives since the government is extremely strict there.

Salar only reiterates what had been said in one of the cables released by Wikileaks. The cable had also stated that Saudi Arabia is a major hub for terror financing and the funds that are generated from there go straight into the hands of the Lashkar-e-Tayiba [ Images ] and Al Qaeda [ Images ].


According to sources in the Intelligence Bureau, curbing financing from Saudi for terror activities is going to be extremely tough.

There are instances where IB sources have found funds coming in from places such as Muscat and Dubai. However, the funds raised from these places are normally donations from rich people, who are forced to part with the money and the donation is never out of choice, an official said.

"However, that is not the case when it comes to Saudi Arabia. There are a large number of people who share the ideology of terror groups and feel that it is their responsibility to support their people in such a war. Issues such as Kashmir [ Images ], Babri Masjid [ Images ] and also Godhra continue to stir up emotions and people are more than willing to part with money to fund terror activities in India," the sources add.


Sources in IB also say that they can name at least 40 different charitable organisations that are set up in various parts of Saudi Arabia whose primary job is to raise money for funding terror in India.

The links to Saudi Arabia became extremely clear when the police tracked a hawala transaction of $10,000 (about Rs 4,60,000) which was used to carry out the July 11, 2006 serial train blasts in Mumbai [ Images ] that killed 209 people.

Security agencies say that there is a need for the Saudi government to monitor such activities more closely. Prime Minister Manmohan Singh [ Images ] had also addressed the same concern during his previous visit to that country.

However, what India needs to worry about are the pick up points in India. For operations in Kashmir, the money is directly wired to Pakistan and the funds pumped in through infiltrators. Off late, the Lashkar bosses have instructed these disguised charitable outfits to send more funds into India so that the network can be strengthened.


The collection points in India have been tracked down to three states, mainly Uttar Pradesh [ Images ], Andhra Pradesh and Kerala [ Images ]. Intelligence Bureau officials have been tracing a lot of such transactions to these states and they suspect that they are only meant for terror financing.


Andhra Pradesh has always had a strong network and money continues to be pumped into that state as well. The big worry is however Kerala for investigators since the entire issue becomes very confusing considering a large Kerala population in the Gulf countries.


There is a report which states that the annual remittance into Kerala through hawala is Rs 20,000 crore. A large part of this money is not meant for terror financing and there are people who are sending money home since they find this method easier. Hence it becomes very difficult to differentiate in this case.


In addition to this what the police have found in Kerala is that the terror operatives are making the job even tougher. Money is directly wired into the state and is not picked up by a member of a terror outfit.


Instead there are some financers who pick up this money and keep it in circulation by lending it at huge rates of interest. These transactions then do not look fishy which makes the job of police difficult.

Sources in the IB say that this pattern is being used in the other states as well.


"It becomes easier for us to track the money down the moment it lands into the hands of a man who is on the radar. However, it is always wired to someone unassuming whom the radar never picks up. However over the past couple of months another trend that is being witnessed is that these persons who pick up the money are loaning it to the lower strata of society and on most occasions these persons become the carriers of such blood money and end up handing it over to the man running the terror module," sources add.

[Johann]

Whichever way you think about it, Assad is gone.... if he magically turns democratic. people will ask for a full investigation into the matter etc. In the end, he will have to go. He has crossed the point of no return now. But make no mistake he will kill soo many people. You can be sure of that.

What Assad is trying to do is speed up the already contemplated transition to a Russian style multi-party system managed through what Russians and Ukrainians call "political technology". There are multiple parties, but all loyal to the executive which handpicks membership and provides most of the funds needed for party operations. The outcome of elections are decided in advance, but seriously unpopular candidates do not run for top positions.

Bshar could have won elections by a Putin style landslide if he had made the transition before all this bloodshed. Now there's no chance he could do it without massive rigging. They would have to find some other Alawi candidate, and there's really none with both a large public persona and clean hands.

Johann ji, the sunni's have started defecting from the army already. Lets see. I am going to a dinner with the inlaws of the head of the Syrian MB today. Lets see if I hear anything interesting.

The Baath Party won the support of rural and small town Sunnis back in the 1960s by supporting them against the Sunni urban elite. That was the social revolution the Baathis like Hafez al-Assad were offering.

Under Bashar al-Assad in the 2000s that social contract was torn up, and state support switched to the urban elites, especially in Damascus and Aleppo in order to grow the economy and integrate it globally.

The Sunni urban elite will abandon the Assads if and when they start looking worse for business than the opposition forces, especially if their business partners in Turkey and the GCC offer cash and diplomatic support.

I think the key problem that is slowly coming up is - does the regime in Egypt want to be islamic or a civil society with a separate constitution? Depends who you ask, some say that Tantawi will kill and destroy people to maintain the status quo. This is the next phase of the revolution.

The Egyptian Army under Tantawi is heading down the Pakistan Army path of relying on Islamists to undermine and deflect democratisation.

I don't think the Egyptian Army will have the same depth of success though. There is a much larger educated class, a much higher percentage of the young educated elite are willing to question the army, less cognitive dissonance about the pre-Islamic past which has produced a strong national identity independent of Islam.

The other paradoxical thing is that the Muslim Brotherhood is stronger than any single Islamist party in Pakistan, and that means that Army-MB cooperation is prone to underlying rivalry and periodic breakdown. I give it a 12 to 24 months at most.

[RajeshA]

How terror funds are pumped in from Saudi

One needs to buy up Pakistanis who visit Hajj, or have been detained by Saudis in their prisons, to go and blow up some of these Charities, by telling him they are dens of Haramis who have abused Pakistanis! The arms etc. can be brought in from Jordan!

Another way is to join Iranian intelligence and get some "miscreants" to go blow up these charities and other charitable families!

[shyamd]

RajeshA ji. Why do you think the west hasn't done anything yet? Everyone knows... Best way is to blackmail and have a buildup against Pak and get Iran to start causing a fuss. They can't say no to counter terror cooperation.

The KSA have already detained several PFI suspects on a request from India. IB chief was in riyadh last year. So there is some cooperation and KSA isn't sleeping on it.

The charities do need to be reigned in, at the end of the day, only way to do that is go from the top King Abdullah to issue orders.

[shyamd]

What Assad is trying to do is speed up the already contemplated transition to a Russian style multi-party system managed through what Russians and Ukrainians call "political technology". There are multiple parties, but all loyal to the executive which handpicks membership and provides most of the funds needed for party operations. The outcome of elections are decided in advance, but seriously unpopular candidates do not run for top positions.

Bshar could have won elections by a Putin style landslide if he had made the transition before all this bloodshed. Now there's no chance he could do it without massive rigging. They would have to find some other Alawi candidate, and there's really none with both a large public persona and clean hands.

Thanks johann ji. But he has killed so many people indiscrimnately now. I just can't see it going back to how it was before. He is gone imo.

The Baath Party won the support of rural and small town Sunnis back in the 1960s by supporting them against the Sunni urban elite. That was the social revolution the Baathis like Hafez al-Assad were offering.

Under Bashar al-Assad in the 2000s that social contract was torn up, and state support switched to the urban elites, especially in Damascus and Aleppo in order to grow the economy and integrate it globally.

The Sunni urban elite will abandon the Assads if and when they start looking worse for business than the opposition forces, especially if their business partners in Turkey and the GCC offer cash and diplomatic support.

Apparently the GCC will do what it does best - pump in the cash to rebuild the country - there is some consensus built already apparently.

There is no way out now. Erdogan said Assad has 10-15 days to introduce reforms. Russia said they don't mind him going - but of course they have their poort in Latakia so they will be in touch with the opposition to secure it. FM Salehi was in Moscow to do some convincing to keep Assad. I think they are all delaying to allow him a chance to do some real reforms. After that I think Turkey is pretty serious and means business - they will create that buffer zone.

The vote on Syria is next week. PRC will probably aabstain coz they are scared that US will use this in the same pretext against them one day.

I expect more bloodshed over the next week.

[brihaspati]

India has been consistently siding up with the troubled dictators of ME, so if the trend continues that will happen with Syria too. A party which officially does not see any problem with Islamism, and thinks that non-Islamic "terror" is a bigger problem - is suddenly so nervous at the prospect of mullah rule in ME countries that it swallows the wonderful propaganda that these dictators were all keeping "islamism" or "MB" in check! in fact the history of allowing the MB back into rehabilitation by supposedly hostile dictators had started long ago - and not a new phenomena. It started as early as 80's in Egypt, and thinsg happened in the other currently flaming countries too.

Some of these dictators showed their real colours - as Qaddafi in shouting in favour of Kashmiri separatism. In fact dictators are the favourite of the "west" - becuase a single point control centre is easier to manipulate and easier to blame and dispose. If India consistently shows the same support - that the west once had - is shows something else. That Indian foreign policy is being overshadowed by domestic concerns or imaginations about possible cues to regime change that domestic forces might take up rather than a willingness to look to future trends in foreign countries of interest.

[RajeshA]

shyamd ji,

its a question of an eye for an eye! Arresting some Wahhabi dude and putting him away for a couple of years is simply not enough. I hope that some day some regime comes in India, and ensures that they will get anybody and everybody anywhere in the world, assassinated together with his family, who has participated in some terror act against an Indian!

Never ever should one with blood on his hands go unpunished!

That is my PoV. It is brutal and may not find much following. Anyway ....

[brihaspati]

^^That is not "our" "religion". As Shiv ji said in another thread - ahimsa and peace suddenly pops up onlee when it is a case of hitting back at Pakis/Islamists atrocities on Indians [did he add Leftists from outside? No, perhaps].

[RamaY]

+1 onleee.

No war. Peaceful negotiations only. Per our religion war is the last option and there is no winner in war.

[abhishek_sharma]

5 Books for understanding Iraq War

[Samudragupta]

Islamic Evolution....

http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2 ... _evolution

Fawaz Zakri was 17 years old when his father told him to pack his bags, bid goodbye to his family, and cross the border into Turkey. The year was 1981, and the northern Syrian city of Aleppo, where Zakri had grown up, was in the throes of a violent anti-government insurgency led by the Syrian Muslim Brotherhood.

Zakri's father feared that his son's links with the Brothers would be enough to land him in jail, or worse. "I was a sympathizer," Zakri qualifies, "but not a member." Two years earlier, the Brotherhood had attacked a local military academy, killing dozens of cadets in an assault that marked the beginning of an all-out war between the Sunni Islamist group and the Alawite regime of Syrian President Hafez al-Assad.

[shyamd]

shyamd ji,

its a question of an eye for an eye! Arresting some Wahhabi dude and putting him away for a couple of years is simply not enough. I hope that some day some regime comes in India, and ensures that they will get anybody and everybody anywhere in the world, assassinated together with his family, who has participated in some terror act against an Indian!

Never ever should one with blood on his hands go unpunished!

That is my PoV. It is brutal and may not find much following. Anyway ....

I agree. I have said it from day 1, we should be doing covert ops to hunt these guys down - its the best option with plausible deniability. We have all the expertise to do it, we know all the suspects (and their addresses), but we are not aggressive in our policies. We should become a lot more aggressive. I suppose we did conduct some cross border ops and managed to nab that Huji chap from SL.

[Agnimitra]

Why the regime won't fall

President Bashar al-Assad has done the math and realizes his regime won't fall as long as the protests don't convulse the urban middle classes. Turkish Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu appeared of the same opinion during his visit to Damascus, implying there's no reason for Ankara to interfere as long as Assad stops killing people and introduces reforms.

[ramana]

Why the regime won't fall

President Bashar al-Assad has done the math and realizes his regime won't fall as long as the protests don't convulse the urban middle classes. Turkish Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu appeared of the same opinion during his visit to Damascus, implying there's no reason for Ankara to interfere as long as Assad stops killing people and introduces reforms.

http://www.slideshare.net/ramana_56/wes ... s-template

I made a rudimentary model of the various decision paths that WANA leaders have and one can see that Syria is now in a mixed model.


If he allows some reforms he won't get regime change.

The probabilities are notional and only for arithmetic purposes but gives an idea of how to think.

[shyamd]

After conversations I had yesterday, this is what I learnt:

- MB is not doing much at the moment but waiting and watching. Some cities the situation is bad, some has had no problems.
- Israeli, Turkish intel cooperation has begun as of late June.
- Assessment is that Iran will provide missile support in the event of turkish intervention. Russia already gave the Panshyr Anti A/c missiles.
- Sounds like some gear has transfered to Izmir from Spain and Germany. USS Bataan has been in the eastern med for a while now.
- Turkish drones are doing over flights over Syria. And Iranians are doing the same close ot hte Turkish border. Turks have already amassed tanks weeks ago.
- Turkish Pres expected in riyadh soon. Military action is on the table.
- Turks have told Assad to implement reforms before its too late.
- Western ships in a defensive ABM role have been amassing close to Turkey
- Several nations conducted the Sea Breeze exercise in June. See http://www.dodlive.mil/index.php/2011/0 ... -a-splash/
- Hezbollah and Iran have already issued threats to the Turks.
- Things have heated up in Bahrain, KSA and Turks are coming in to settle/negotiate the issue with the Bahraini shia groups.

[Johann]

Shyam,

I've heard some of the same things, and I believe this is posturing.

The Turkish military command and civil-military relations are not in the best of shapes - the heads of all services tendered their resignations over the AKP arrests and trials of officers.

Like the 1995 confrontation this is ultimately intended to make the Assad regime rethink its position.

However since the issue is regime survival the Assads are going to try to find ways to make cosmetic concessions, and count on the fact that a Turkish intervention lacking clear objectives and exit strategy is a bluff.

Turkish SF has a lot of behind the lines experience in Iraq. They are providing independent reporting for the Ankara government. Like Turkish SF in Iraq they could end up becoming the centrepoint of an incident.

[shyamd]

Thanks Johann.

I think for now this is posturing, they are just showing to Assad that the military option is on the table. Erdogan has given him 10-15 days. But I still feel that they are determined to remove the "Lion" as they call him.

In terms of the military objectives, I think the first objective on the table is to build a buffer zone to prevent armed Kurdish groups taking advantage of the porous borders.

Lets see what happens.

[RajeshA]

Thanks Johann.

I think for now this is posturing, they are just showing to Assad that the military option is on the table. Erdogan has given him 10-15 days. But I still feel that they are determined to remove the "Lion" as they call him.

In terms of the military objectives, I think the first objective on the table is to build a buffer zone to prevent armed Kurdish groups taking advantage of the porous borders.

Lets see what happens.

I think, one needs to get the Turks out into the neighboring countries in bigger numbers. Wouldn't it be great to see Turks taking over Arab lands?! How would that look? If Turkey occupies a piece of Syrian land, be it as a buffer, then does it mean that Palestinians can forget ever having their own country, and would Syria ever get the Golan Heights from Israel?

Every time, the Saudis or somebody else would talk about "ending Israeli occupation", Israel can always retort, that they should first talk to Turkey to leave Syrian land.

It would also not be bad if Turkey too meets its Vietnam/Afghanistan!

[Johann]

Hi Shyam,

The Turks have three major concerns;
- 80-95% of the multi-billion dollar Turkish-Syrian trade has dried up because of the violence and instability in Syria. It is vitally important to Turkey's economy to see sustainable stability restored.
- The spillover of refugees, both Arab and Kurdish in to Turkey threaten to bring Syrian politics in to Turkey and destabilise its own border areas. They want the refugee flows to stop and reverse.
- Turkey has developed a self-image as the leading humanitarian force for Muslim welfare in the Near East. They need to look like they can bring peace, justice and stability to the region.

Limited intervention can not fix the primary concern, which is trade flows.

However, if Syrian refugee flows massively increase, then intervention is likely to take place, with the goal of creating a safe haven for Syrians outside Turkish territory. That way they can meet humanitarian needs without letting them in to Turkey proper.

Although the AKP is pushing for reform it is not clear how stable the post-Assad scenario will be either. Turkey, the GCC and EU are wracking their brains on this one, but the divisions between the political players amongst the Syrian opposition are good neews for the regime.

[shyamd]

Thanks Johann, I think by giving Asad 15 days, it was meant to buy time for the Syrians believe it or not, as there is no real logic to it, if they wanted him out they would have said it from the beginning.

But I think there are other forces at play here (i.e GCC). One by one now they are working towards removing Iranian influence. "Saving Lebanon" from Hezbollah.
-------------------------------
My new post on the blog. I've added updates to the summary I posted above.

Turkey - Syria - Iran Dynamic

Here is a quick summary on what is taking place in Syria:

- Muslim Brotherhood is not doing much at the moment but waiting and watching. Some cities the situation is bad, some has had no problems.
- Erdogan has given 15 days for Assad to introduce reforms.
- Israeli, Turkish intel cooperation has begun as of late June.
- Assessment is that Iran will provide missile support in the event of Turkish intervention. Russia already gave the Panshyr Anti A/c missiles to Syria.
- Sounds like some Air force aircraft has transferred to Izmir from Spain and Germany. USS Bataan has been in the eastern medeterrainean for a while now.
- Turkish drones are doing over flights over Syria. And Iranians are doing the same close to the Turkish border. Turks have already amassed tanks weeks ago.
- Turkish Pres expected in Riyadh soon. Military action is on the table.
- Turks have told Assad to implement reforms before its too late.
- Western ships in a defensive ABM role have been amassing close to Turkey
- Several nations conducted the Sea Breeze exercise in June. See http://www.dodlive.mil/index.php/2011/0 ... -a-splash/
- Hezbollah and Iran have already issued threats to the Turks.
- Things have heated up in Bahrain, KSA and Turks are coming in to settle/negotiate the issue with the Bahraini shia groups.
- The next steps will be to split up the Syrian Army. There are about 9 units within the Syrian military where loyalties to the regime are suspect, the aim is to link these military groups with the protesters.

Conclusion - It is likely that Assad will introduce some reforms to stall the anti government protesters. We believe there is now a new determination in the sunni GCC to bring down Bashar Al Assad. Turkey will be coordinating most of the actions.
It is safe to expect more attrocities against the Syrian civilians in the coming days.

Added later: It appears that Iran is getting cornered completely in their efforts to help the Syrian regime. The land route via Iraq is likely to be stopped by the US forces, land route via Turkey is being stopped by Turks. Only way is now the sea route, so the Iranians have announced "investments" in Latakia port. So Israel will be pressured to stop any ships heading to Latakia. The fight is now on between the GCC/NATO/Turkey against the Iranians/Syria.

On the face of it, it looks increasingly likely that this war will be financed by the GCC and that the only way Bashar Al Assad will be removed is via external intervention most likely via Turkey.

I am also pleased to say that I have been invited to contribute articles on the CNN-IBN website on defence and strategic relations.

[devesh]

shyamd ji, Congratulations and Good Luck.

[RajeshA]

I am also pleased to say that I have been invited to contribute articles on the CNN-IBN website on defence and strategic relations.

shyamd ji,

chumma to you saar!

[shyamd]

Thank you both for your kind words.

----------------------------
I have just learnt that Turkey has asked for the 10-15 days time, so that Turkey can prepare for war. Pres Obama will call for Asad to step down by next week I think. Apparently, international intervention is def on the cards. Expect GCC, Turkey, Germany, Pak possibly to be involved. One of the aims is to create a buffer zone and prevent syria from splitting.

GCC advisors are now in Turkiye

[Virupaksha]

shyamd,

congratulations and we will get to call one of ours as DDM

[Prem]

http://dailycaller.com/2011/08/14/ahmad ... years-end/
Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad says his country’s first nuclear plant in the Iranian city of Bushehr will go into full operation by year’s end, Ria Novosti reports.

In a Sunday interview with the international television news channel RT, Ahmadinejad announced: “The Bushehr nuclear power plant is ready and the plant will be launched into full operation by the end of this year.” (RELATED: Ahmadinejad to Iran’s rulers: Keep coed colleges)Iran has the support of a Russian contractor, Rosatom, which will finance the project. Ahmadinejad said he anticipates no delays with the launch of the plant.Russia has received approval from the International Atomic Energy Agency to operate the plant when it opens. Russia will supply fuel and remove waste from the plant for the next two to three years before eventually handing over control of the plant to the Iranian government

[ramana]

Shyamd, Congrats. So try to plug for BR occasionally.

Also re Turkey asking for fortnight, is Assad et al going to wring hands or do something?

[Suppiah]

Congrats shyamd on your 'promotion'

It seems to suit so many to make Syria the next whipping boy, of course, its own role playing a big part. Seems GOI is having another Gujral-embrace moment...will it lead to positive results this time?

KP Nayar seems to be happy...

http://www.telegraphindia.com/1110812/j ... 370519.jsp

India is determined that during its presidency of the Security Council, it will not allow itself to be used as cannon fodder for a repetition of the invasion of Iraq or the ongoing attack on Libya.

Can someone translate this nonsensical gibberish vomit to English? How does India become 'cannon fodder'?

[shyamd]

Virupaksha, Thanks. I"ll try and do a bit better than DDM hopefully.

Ramana, thanks. I definitely will get the BR view across.
Well they wanted tO give Asad the benefit of the doubt and prepare for war. So they said reform, cease operations immediately. So far he has failed tO dO either so far. Let's see what he does over the next few days.
As of nOw Assad continues to kill peOple. Asad is cOunting on Iranian missile suppOrt if turkey invades.

Pak and turkey had meetings 2 days ago. King Abdallah spoke with MMS & Karzai tO secure their pOsitions that they are on bOard just in case S hits the fan I think.
PRC is bOught in as insurance for TSP and I think with US permissiOn. Its not a cOincidence that they are drilling oopposite Pokhran.
Dual purpose.

Suppiah, Thanks! They want to get rid of Asad because Of iran and hezbOllah. SO this is business not personal against Asad.

[Suppiah]

Wonder what is getting our Stalinist Beijing puppets and their yellow agents goat....PRC is not in picture..or is it?

[Dilbu]

ShyamD congrats. Happy to see one more of our own getting through to the main stream media.

[shyamd]

^^ Thanks

Suppiah ji, They are in the loop. The way I see it, PRC was brought into TSP as an insurance policy. But, lets see what happens at the UN discussion on Syria next week.,

[wig]

shyamd ji, congratulations, look forward to reading your write ups. i hope and pray that you achieve greater heights

[abhischekcc]

I am also pleased to say that I have been invited to contribute articles on the CNN-IBN website on defence and strategic relations.

Congrats shyamd ji.

[chaanakya]

I am also pleased to say that I have been invited to contribute articles on the CNN-IBN website on defence and strategic relations.

Congratulations Shyamd.I am no fan of CNN-IBN but I am sure CNN-IBN will improve in quality with your articles. Keep BRF West Asia thread alive and kicking with your contributions. BRF reach may be far wider and deeper than once could imagine.

[shyamd]

wig , Thanks for your kind words.

abishekcc , Thanks

chaanakya , Thanks. I am no fan either. But its a national news channel, so its a good chance to let the BR thought process reach the masses. I shall continue to be an active member on BRF.

----------------------------

A number of statements made by senior Iranian clerics and MPs about US/GCC meddling in Syria.

Iran MP urges pro-Syria front against US

Thu Aug 11, 2011 10:23AM GMT
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[Deputy Chairman of the Majlis Committee on National Security and Foreign Policy Hossein Ebrahimi] [Gholam Reza Karami, a member of the Majlis Committee on National Security and Foreign Policy]
Deputy Chairman of the Majlis Committee on National Security and Foreign Policy Hossein Ebrahimi
A senior member of Iran's Majlis (parliament) has called on regional countries to create a front against the persisting US interference in Syrian affairs.


“The arrogant powers, led by the US, have been taken aback by the recent developments in the Middle East and North Africa. They never thought such incidents could take place for their allies, including Egypt,” said Hossein Ebrahimi, the deputy chairman of the Majlis Committee on National Security and Foreign Policy, quoted by IRNA on Wednesday.

The senior Iranian lawmaker further said that Israel is currently surrounded by revolutionary countries such as Egypt, Lebanon and Syria, and noted that, “The Zionist regime (Israel) is collapsing.”

Ebrahimi added that the United States would obviously seek to save Israel under the current circumstances.

“Washington seeks to exert pressure on Syria and cause insecurity in the country in order to achieve its own objectives,” Ebrahimi pointed out.

Meanwhile, another member of the Majlis committee, Gholam Reza Karami also pointed to the ongoing crisis in Syria and urged the Arab League to take a “firm” stance against the US meddling in Syria affairs.

The lawmaker advised Arab League leaders to be on the alert for the US objectives in the region, which are aimed at weakening the anti-Israel resistance and spreading insecurity in Syria.

He emphasized that the US is making efforts to take advantage of regional developments in pursuit of its opportunistic policies.

Syria has been experiencing unrest in the past months, with demonstrations held both against and in support of the government.

Hundreds of people, including security forces, have been killed during clashes in the country since the beginning of the unrest in mid-March.

The Syrian opposition claims security forces are behind the killings, but the government blames the deadly violence on foreign-backed armed gangs.

Meanwhile, Russia's Security Council Secretary Nikolai Patrushev has arrived in the Iranian capital, Tehran, to hold talks with top Iranian officials most likely on next steps, syria and the nuke prog.

Lots of diplomacy going on.

Today there was a naval bombardment of Sunni areas of Latakia. So its turning sectarian, the sunni's are slowly waking up.

[shyamd]

Independence day in KSA. This editorial was published - most likely with the govt backing.

Arab news had a special section on the Indian Independence day with the President of India's addres to the nation and a message from the Ambassador with areas of growth in India's economy. http://arabnews.com/saudiarabia/india_independence_day/


Saudi-India ties at an all-time high

By ARAB NEWS

Published: Aug 14, 2011 23:29 Updated: Aug 14, 2011 23:29

India and the Arabian Peninsula share deep historical, commercial and religious ties, which date back to several millennia when sailors and merchant from South Asia used to sail across the Indian Ocean, using monsoon winds, in boats made of wood supplied from Malabar. The relationship gradually penetrated into other realms of life especially culture which enhanced the level of natural understanding between the people of two lands. Due to this intense interaction, there emerged strong symbiotic relationship that has stood the test of time and is growing stronger with the passage of time.

The centuries old two-way trade was mutually beneficial for the people of India and Arabian Peninsula and enriched their knowledge and fulfilled their day-to-day life requirements. India used to import pearls and dates from the Arabian Peninsula while satiating the Arab necessities like foodstuff, timber, textiles and also supplied other luxury items like silk and jewelry.

The shared feelings of respect and mutual admiration for the role played by the leadership of the two countries in the first half of the 20th century brought the two countries closer. India deeply admired the efforts of King Abdul Aziz to unify the disintegrated tribes of the peninsula and bring them under his leadership, which eventually led to the formation of the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia.

Indian government has supported the endeavors undertaken by the leadership of Saudi Arabia to improve the overall aspects of Haj management, which has made pilgrimage for the Muslims from across the world, a safe and comfortable experience.

The leaderships of the two countries have displayed unwavering commitment to strengthen the historical bonds of friendship. The high-level bilateral engagements between the two countries commenced when King Saud visited India in 1955, which was followed a year later, by the visit of Indian Prime Minister Jawaharlal Nehru to the Kingdom. Later visits were those of then Crown Prince Faisal to India in 1959 and of Prime Minister Indira Gandhi in 1982.

The foundations of the contemporary relationship were laid by the historical visit of Custodian of the Two Holy Mosques King Abdullah bin Abdul Aziz to India in January 2006, when he was the chief guest at India’s Republic Day. The visit acted as a catalyst of change in the bilateral relations between the two countries. Through the “Delhi Declaration” signed by the two leaders at the end of the visit, committed themselves to pursuing a joint strategic vision to promote bilateral relations for mutual benefit as well as for the peace and security of the region as a whole. Based on the framework provided by the Delhi Declaration, bilateral relations between the two countries have been strengthened further with increase in ministerial visits and stronger economic ties based on substantial trade relations and investments.

The visit of Prime Minister of India Manmohan Singh to Saudi Arabia in February-March 2010 and the signing of the “Riyadh Declaration” during the visit further gave a boost to the momentum of bilateral relations. It elevated the engagement between the two countries to the level of Strategic partnership and articulated their commitment to promote bilateral ties in political, economic, security, defense and cultural areas.

India and Saudi Arabia are witnessing a new chapter in their bilateral relations. Saudi Arabia is India’s fourth largest trade partner, with bilateral trade being valued at $18.3 billion for the period April-December, 2010-11. There are over 565 small and medium Indian enterprises operating in the Kingdom and the total Indian investments in Saudi Arabia have now crossed $2.5 billion, with the presence of major Indian companies in sectors such as IT, construction, contracting services, financial services and engineering goods etc.

There is increased level of cooperation in the field of information services, biotechnology, nanotechnology and space. India possesses one of the largest pool of scientific and technical manpower in the world and it is well known for their technological prowess. Many Indian expatriates, who are specialists in IT, are contributing to the growth of Saudi IT and knowledge based industries. The development of the knowledge economy promises to be a major joint endeavor.

The new areas of cooperation, which the two countries are now pursuing includes education, science and technology. The two countries are also expected to commit themselves to join forces to combat the scourge of extremism and violence, which constitute a threat to all countries.

It is not astonishing that the Indian expatriate community in Saudi Arabia, numbered approximately 2 million, has been playing a major role in bringing the two countries closer. They have been participating in all the major developmental projects in the Kingdom. In turn, the Kingdom is the largest source of crude oil for India, meeting more than one-fifth of India’s oil requirements. Recently, the Saudi government increased the oil quota for India when there were reports of possible supply disruptions, ensuring that India gets steady supply of oil.

The existing relations have further been provided a boost by the exchange of high level visits in 2011. The Indian side, both Minister of External Affairs S.M. Krishna and Minister of State for External Affairs Shri E. Ahamed have visited Saudi Arabia and from the Saudi side Prince Bandar bin Sultan, secretary-general of National Security Council, as a special envoy of King Abdullah and the Grand Imam of the Holy Mosque of Makkah Sheikh Abdul Rahman Al-Sudais visited India.

The multilevel engagement of the leaders and peoples of the two countries; historical ties that go back to several millennia; our common vision for the region; cultural and societal values; and a strong desire on both sides to work together for the mutual benefit of our people will further strengthen the relations between India and Saudi Arabia in the future.

Difference has been made in Indo-Oman ties
By Ambassador of India Anil Wadhwa
Mon Aug 15 2011 09:36:17 GMT+0400 (Arabian Standard Time) Oman Time






Difference has been made in Indo-Oman ties

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People of Indian origin residing in Oman and my Omani brothers and sisters. India and Oman share a vibrant history and are assiduously engaged in strengthening their bilateral relations.

The strong, historical relations between India and Oman, their geographical proximity and their common interests at different levels date back to the age of “Majan” (old Oman) and the civilisation of the Indus Valley. The artifacts related to Gujarat clay found at a dig in Oman at Ras Al Hadd confirm the historical and civilisational links between the two countries during the Bronze Age (3500 – 1000 BC).

Historic links
Ancient trade between Oman and Indus Valley Civilisation flourished in the third millennium BC. There is evidence of regular trade with India in frankincense and myrrh in the 1st Century BC. The art of wood carving and pottery making in Oman evolved from contacts with ancient Gujarat.

Around the end of the 8th century AD Oman’s commercial relationship with India was strengthened to a great extent. India-Oman contacts at the advent of Islam are explained by the Shrine of Cherman Perumal, the King of Kerala who settled down in Salalah. The entire Indian west coast ranging from Gujarat to Malabar in Kerala traded with Oman.

By the middle of the 18th century and 19th century AD onwards, Oman became a principal port exporting coffee and other local products from interconnecting Gulf countries to India and the Red Sea. During the period of 1862- 1970 AD, the dhow trade between Indian and Oman flourished.

Bepur in Kerala and Sur in Oman became important dhow making centres. During this period, traditional Indian traders made Oman their business centre and settled in Oman. Their relationship with local Omanis and the Royal family grew more and more cordial and intimate as days passed. By the end of 19th century around 2000 ‘Banyans’ made Oman their home.

The Omanis had great faith in the ‘Banyans’ and used to deposit their ornaments, gold and silver coins and cash with these Kutch traders.

Warm relations
To translate the civilisational links and historical ties into official engagement between the two countries, India opened her Consulate here in 1955 which was turned into an Embassy in 1977. Today, more than 585,000 Indians are working in Oman. They have earned respect as a peaceful and law-abiding community contributing positively to nation building of Oman.

A number of high level visits in the recent past reflect the warm and friendly relations between the two countries. Most importantly the visit of His Highness Sayyid Fahd bin Mahmoud Al Said, Deputy Prime Minister for the Council of Ministers of Oman to India in December 2007 and Indian Prime Minister Dr. Manmohan Singh’s visit to Oman in November 2008 have set the stage for regular high level visits in recent years. The warmth in relations is also illustrated by the various ministerial and delegation level visits exchanged between India and Oman over the last three years. One of the recent visits was that of Indian Minister of State for External Affairs E. Ahmed to Oman in June, 2011.

The growing connectivity between the two countries and steady development of the two economies during the past few years has resulted in a noticeable increase in bilateral trade and commerce. Bilateral trade figure was registered at $4.5 billion in the financial year 2009-10 stepping up from U$ 2 billion in 2008-09. By July 2010, there were 1537 joint ventures between both countries in Oman, and investments from both sides totaled $7.5 billion. There are more than 140 large Indian companies present in Oman.

Growing investment
During the last three years, Indian and Omani companies have made significant progress in new tie ups and investments in each other’s country. Oman India Fertilizer Company (OMIFCO), a $969 million joint venture for producing fertilizer in Sur has continued to perform beyond expectations. The Jindal Group acquired Shadeed Iron and Steel plant in Oman in May 2010 from Abu-Dhabi’s Al Ghaith Holdings (AGH) for $464 million in the port city of Sohar and has also dedicated it to the nation in May 2011. The Group is planning to invest another $500 million for expansion of its facilities in Sohar.

Another public sector joint venture, Bharat Oman Refinary Limited (BORL) promoted by Bharat Petroleum Corporation and Oman Oil Company (which has 26 percent equity in the project) and located at Bina, Madhya Pradesh, India was commissioned in May 2011.

The foundation of India-Oman Joint Investment Fund was laid during the visit of Dr. Manmohan Singh, Prime Minister of India to Oman in November 2008. During this visit, a MoU was signed between State Bank of India (SBI) and State General Reserve Fund of Oman (SGRF) to set up a Joint Investment Fund to make equity investments in various economic sectors of both the countries. Final documents related to the establishment of the Fund, were inked in July 2010 during the visit of the then Omani Minister for National Economy Ahmed bin Abdulnabi Macki to India.

The joint venture has started operations in February 2011 with an investible corpus of $100 million (going up to $1.5 billion) to be contributed equally by SGRF and SBI. The fund is being operated by a joint management company headquartered in Mumbai.

Economic cooperation
The fund is exploring opportunities in all sectors without any specific preference. The Sultanate of Oman and India have also signed a final report, on promoting economic relations and mutual cooperation which has identified nine areas of cooperation: agriculture, health care, infrastructure, tourism, chemical and fertilizer, education, oil & gas, power and mining.

The report was developed by the Supreme Committee headed by Mohammed bin Al Zubair, Adviser to His Majesty the Sultan for Economic Planning Affairs, and Dr. Montek Singh Ahluwalia, Deputy Chairman of Planning Commission of Government of India. The Supreme Committee was tasked to review the whole gamut of India-Oman relationship and to suggest a way forward for leveraging economic stakes for mutual benefit.

Agreements
India and Oman have also signed various agreements covering cooperation in investment and finance, defence, science and technology, agriculture and higher education. Last year, the two countries signed an MoU on cooperation in culture.

Under the MOU, visits by the cultural, art and literature delegations and the exchange of knowledge, expertise and information relevant to support the cultural and art programmes are being promoted. In addition, the Embassy continues to promote endeavors of the Indian Community residing in Oman to bring India cultural events/groups to Oman. We also expect a few more cultural troupes from Indian Council for Cultural Relations to visit Oman this year.

During the past couple of years, the Indian economy has proved its resilience especially in the years of global crisis. The Indian economy has grown close to 8.5 to 9 per cent in the previous few years.

In the financial year 2010-11 the estimated annual growth registered at 8.5 per cent and for the next financial year a growth rate of 8.75 – 9.25 per cent is estimated. India has adopted economic reforms which has gradually opened the market. The Indian market is now driven by new business models which motivates innovations into industry and market practices. Indian business community is willing to share this experience with other countries.

Mutual collaboration
We have also observed the steady progress and diversification of the Omani economy. Thus, India and Oman have a lot to offer each other. We should concentrate on realising each other’s experience in various sectors such as food security, medical tourism, agriculture, petro-chemicals, pharmaceuticals, higher education, technical and vocational training and science and technology.

India and Oman could also work to accelerate cooperation between SME sectors of the two countries. India already offers 50 slots for technical training to Omani personnel under its Indian Technical and Economic Cooperation (ITEC) Programme. We have seen overwhelming response from Omani candidates.

To enhance bilateral commercial engagements, Indian Embassy has continued to organise Indo-Oman Business Forum meets to bring business houses of the two countries closer and make them aware of the current economic trends and business opportunities in India and Oman. Besides, the embassy organised five Indo-Oman Business Seminars in Sohar, Sur, Salalah, Nizwa and Buraimi over the past few months to update Omani businessmen and traders on the upward trend of Indian economy. Recently, the embassy organised such seminars in Nizwa and Salalah and Muscat. These seminars aim at increasing bilateral trade exchanges between the two countries and also focused on the exportable Indian brands and products for the Omani market.

The Indian Embassy has also made special efforts to promote tourism in India, including medical tourism. Tie-ups between Indian hospitals and travel agencies in Oman have been facilitated. The embassy has been promoting medical tourism in India through publicising specialty medical care in India at competitive prices through seminars, especially during Incredible India road shows in Muscat and Salalah in 2009.

During the recently held seminars in Nizwa and Salalah, a report on Indian healthcare sector including wellness centers and pharmaceuticals was presented. It is encouraging that more than 35,000 Omani nationals visited India in 2010.

Special bond
Nearly, 2,000 Indian doctors work for the Ministry of Health, Royal Court of Oman, Oman’s Armed Forces and in the private sector. India has also provided experts to the Government of Oman in cartography, statistics, survey, finance, information and audit function in its State Audit Department. Several Indian banks are functioning in Oman either as banks or as the exchange houses. The New India Assurance Co. has been providing insurance services since 1975. Similarly, Oman International Bank and Bank Muscat are present in India.

Indian culture has always been the subject of fascination for the Omani nationals. Due to the civilisational links between the two countries and the Sultanate being home to a large workforce of Indians, Indian cultural aspects have been blended in common Omani life. In order to renew the cultural bond between India and Oman and also to introduce new features of art and culture from India, the embassy has continued to organise cultural events in various cities of Oman.

Recently, Rajasthani dance troupe, Qawwali Group and Baul Group which were sponsored by the Indian Council for Cultural Relations and Indian Social Club saw packed performances in Muscat, Sohar, Nizwa and Salalah. The embassy is also thankful for the support extended by the local event management companies which have brought excellent events in Oman from India.

These events range from painting exhibitions, film festivals, theater festivals, musical performances, textiles shows, classical and semi-classical dance performances, folk art, exhibitions and talk-shows/lectures. In addition, Hindi Diwas, ITEC Day, visit of artisans for live demonstration of Indian handicrafts, etc. are regularly being organised by the embassy.

All those events can be viewed at the embassy’s newly created facebook account. I also urge members of the Indian community based in Oman to make use of the online registration facility which has been initiated by the embassy in February 2011 to keep the record of Indian nationals residing in Oman.

With the embassy’s support and efforts Indian Schools in Buraimi and Thumrait have been opened. An Indian School in Massirah will be opened in this academic year. With the Indian School in Massirah Island, the total number of Indian Schools will go up to 19 and they will function under the guidance of the Board of Directors for Indian Schools in Oman. The Omani Ministry of Education has now taken over the supervision of Indian schools in Oman under the Board of Directors.

Four years of progress
Four years have just rolled by since I arrived in Oman in August 2007, and it seems that this happened just yesterday. The past four years have seen innumerable number of visits, cultural events, economic and commercial promotions and opening new areas of cooperation between India and Oman all of which happened in quick succession.

I can look back with great satisfaction at the end of these four years and feel happy that a difference has been made in Indo-Oman relations, in raising the confidence, prestige and unity of the Indian community in Oman and in the betterment of the lives of the Indian blue collar workers. A lot more needs to be done but the basic structure is in place and Indo-Oman relations are on a sound footing. Plans are afoot for larger and more diversified investments, opening new areas in bilateral trade; Oman and India have come to recognise each other as promising areas of potential.

I wish to convey my sincere thanks to the Omani authorities who have always been very helpful to me and the Indian Embassy.
I would also like to convey my deep gratitude to His Majesty Sultan Qaboos bin Said Al Said for his benevolence and patronage of the Indian community residing in Oman. The Indian community in Oman has always been hard working, peaceful, law-abiding, humble and creative. It takes pride in the recognition of its worth by Omani brothers and sisters and the Omani government.

On this happy occasion of National pride, the 65th Independence Day of India, I would like to convey my greetings and best wishes to the Indian community and people of Indian origin residing in the Sultanate, and convey my deep sense of satisfaction of getting the opportunity to represent them in Oman. I am confident that in future, their embassy will continue to work towards improvement of conditions of work and living for the community and for the betterment of our precious relationship between India and the Sultanate of Oman.

[Suppiah]

Recently, the Saudi government increased the oil quota for India when there were reports of possible supply disruptions, ensuring that India gets steady supply of oil.

Bit like the local supplier of hashish saying he graciously kept up the supply when the usual provider got busted by the cops..keeping major economies hooked on oil and not look for alternatives has been a key part of Saudi strategy. On the +ve side, that is what makes them play a moderating influence on prices and keep thugs like Ahmed-nutjob and Chavez in some level of sanity.

Be that as it may, it is nice to keep them on our side or at least a bit less on TSP side..so it is good news arabnews is singing such songs.

But then they also did say TSP and KSA are not just brothers, they are one and the same country...

It is not as if KSA is opening the floodgates to 100+ million pakbarians who are under delusions of being Araps to come and pollute their land.

So in the end, both statements are a bit of eastern rhetoric, 99% masala onleee..1% meat...take it for what it is worth..

[Agnimitra]

I am also pleased to say that I have been invited to contribute articles on the CNN-IBN website on defence and strategic relations.

Shyamd ji, congratulations and good luck!
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The Iranians are searching for a more nuanced position vis a vis the emerging situation in Syria...

Iran banks all on Assad's survival

Officially, Iran is committed to the Syrian regime's survival, but concerns are being voiced in the Islamic Republic over Tehran's failure to hedge its bets. At its extreme the fear is that the Middle East's most resilient modern alliance and the region's "resistance axis" will crumble should Syrian President Bashar al-Assad be forced out or emasculated.

[...]
Nevertheless, the Iranian government is confident that the Syrian regime can weather the storm, and that the situation is being deliberately exaggerated by Western media and intelligence services, who hope to extract strategic concessions from Assad further down the road.

Iran is also concerned by regional reactions to the crisis, especially by the pro-active Turkish position, which from an Iranian point of view is exploiting a putative humanitarian crisis to expand Turkish influence in the region. The real fear is not so much centered on Turkish influence (which is viewed as relatively benign) but that Turkey is working at the behest of Washington and key European states to re-align Syria away from Iran.

[...]
Most analysts describe the Iranian-Syrian alliance as one centered on strategic opportunity and needs, pointing towards Syria's decades-old rivalry with Iraq and the two countries' enthusiasm to exploit Lebanon's perennially unstable politics for strategic gain against Israel.

This characterization is accurate but it fails to take stock of the less opportunistic - indeed less strategic - elements of the alliance. Ideology is one important component of the alliance. Iran may be an Islamic state and Syria an avowedly secular one committed to the ideals of Ba'athist pan-Arabism (which some in Iran perceive as politically distasteful), but the two countries are united by the Arab world's and to a lesser extent Turkey's distaste for Shi'ite Islam.

The dominant Alawite sect in Syria (who make up 12% of the population) - alongside the Alevis of Turkey (who comprise 20% of the population) - belong to a folk tradition of Shi'ism that is markedly different to the scholastic religion of the Twelver Shi'ites, who form the majority in Iraq and Iran.

Orthodox Sunnis on the whole regard Twelver Shi'ism as a legitimate (albeit eccentric) form of Islam, but they are universally adamant that the Alawites and Alevis, owing to their esoteric beliefs and their estrangement from the devotional aspects of the Islamic faith, fall well outside the religious boundaries of Islam. Many devout Twelver Shi'ites share this perception and regard the Alawites and the Alevis as essentially non-Muslim.

However, owing to political considerations the late Imam Musa Sadr (the Lebanese cleric who mobilized Lebanon's downtrodden Shi'ite community in the 1970s) allegedly issued a fatwa, declaring the Alawites to be an intrinsic part of the diverse global Islamic family.

This political position was seized on with great enthusiasm by the rulers of the newly-founded Islamic Republic of Iran who were anxious to cultivate a reliable ideological ally in the face of region-wide Sunni Arab hostility. Consequently, there is a widespread perception in official Iranian circles that the Syrian regime is politically Shi'ite, even though in stark contrast to their Iranian counterparts, Syrian officials have no time for Islamic rituals and mannerisms.

[...]
An Islamic awakening?
It is precisely because of Syria's critical importance to regional Iranian policy that in recent weeks more and more former Iranian officials and academics have begun to speak out against the lack of complexity and nuance in Iran's policy vis-a-vis the perceived deteriorating situation inside Syria.

The site for the expression of this dissent is Iranian Diplomacy, an extremely well-networked and well-informed analytical website that is ostensibly run by foreign policy "experts". In reality it is managed by a network of former and retiring diplomats and their friends in the universities who appear to be politically aligned to the reformist factions in the Islamic Republic. Although firmly anchored in the official Iranian world view, Iranian Diplomacy nonetheless offers serious and at times scathing criticism of official policy.

Regarding the disturbances in Syria, Iranian Diplomacy dissented from the official line early on by highlighting the use of excessive force by Syrian security forces and by drawing attention to some of the legitimate demands of the Syrian opposition. Writing for the website, Tehran University Professor Ali Bigdeli delivered a scathing critique of official policy by drawing a comparison to Turkey's "smarter" approach towards the putative political crisis in Syria. According to Bigdeli, the unrest in Syria has emboldened Turkey to escalate its involvement in Arab affairs with a view to assuming leadership of the Arab world.

The putative political crisis in Syria has enabled academics like Bigdeli, who write from a nationalistic point of view, to question the very existence of the deep alliance between Iran and Syria. These academics draw attention to the Syrian regime's Arab nationalist ideology, and by extension Syria's strong support for Arab causes, including Arab countries' territorial claims on Iran.

For example, Syria supports the United Arab Emirates' territorial claims on the Iranian islands of Abu Musa, Greater and Lesser Tunb in the Persian Gulf, an ideological position which sits uneasily next to Syria's alliance with the Islamic Republic.

Writing for the same website, former Iranian ambassador to Lebanon, Mohammad Edrissi, alludes to Assad's growing problems but discounts the likelihood of the Iranian-Syrian alliance collapsing, even in the event of regime change in Syria.

According to Edrissi, owing to Syria's profound enmity with Israel, the former will have to rely on ''resistance'' groups (and by extension Iran) in order to offset Israeli pressure. Edrissi also claims that Lebanese Hezbollah is revising its attitude towards the situation in Syria by requesting Assad to treat the issue of political reform more seriously.

Edrissi's comments may be viewed as a reflection of the views of certain senior Iranian officials who want the Islamic Republic to publicly urge Assad to go down the route of political reform and reconciliation with his less vociferous opponents.

It is fair to say that a growing number of Iranian officials are concerned that Iran's unequivocal support for Assad and the ruling clique in Damascus is tarnishing the Islamic Republic's image in the Arab world. Indeed, Iran risks coming across as hypocritical and a practitioner of double standards (precisely the same charge that the Islamic Republic levels at its Western opponents) by praising the revolutionary movements in countries like Egypt, Yemen and Bahrain, while adopting a markedly different view on Syria.

The Islamic Republic has characterized the region-wide protests that began in Tunisia in December 2010 and which have since convulsed much of the Middle East and North Africa as an "Islamic Awakening" but have pointedly omitted Syria from this putative region-wide Islamic revolutionary movement. It appears that there is a growing recognition in ruling circles in Tehran that this posture is unsustainable, particularly if internal and external pressure continues to mount against Assad.

[...]
Indeed, talking to Iranian officials it appears that there is deep unease about the methods employed by the Syrian security forces which have allegedly killed up to 2,000 people since protests and violence erupted in March. In private, Iranian officials draw a comparison to how professionally Iranian security forces responded to widespread rioting and disorder in the wake of the disputed presidential elections of June 2009.

They claim (with some justification) that the disorder was quelled with minimum loss of life.

[...]
Despite growing realization in Tehran that the country's rhetorical posture towards the events in Syria is unsustainable, by the same token there is widespread confidence that Assad will weather this storm, albeit by emerging weaker in the long term.

The Iranians provide a multitude of reasons why Syria will survive, the most immediate of which are the resilience of the Syrian regime (and the ferocity of its security establishment) and the divided nature of the Syrian opposition, the majority of whom hail from a Sunni Islamist pedigree. But deep down Iranian officials believe that Assad will survive because owing to his foreign policy posture and his impeccable anti-Zionist credentials, his regime is somehow more ''connected'' to the deepest aspirations of his people, indeed the people of the region as a whole.

This essentially ideological assessment complements Iran's strategic reading of the so-called Arab Spring as an "Islamic Awakening", and one whose long-term geopolitical consequences will strengthen Iran's position at the expense of the United States and Israel.

[...]
It is entirely conceivable that any diminution of Alawite political power in Syria (let alone the downfall of Assad and the ruling clique) will re-orient Syria towards the Sunni Arab political order at the expense of Iran. Under this scenario, even if the Iranian-Syrian alliance endures in one form or another, the Islamic Republic's position on the eastern banks of the Mediterranean Sea will become increasingly vulnerable.

[shyamd]

Carl ji, Thanks!

-------------
Unconfirmed reports that Turkey has decided to create a buffer zone in Syria. Reports from a private Turkish channel.