AP Politics and runup to 2014 General elections

gandharva · Post by **gandharva** » 05 Apr 2014 20:06

Enough of this coalition bull$hit.Time for BJP to go alone even if deposit is lost on all seats.

Rony · Post by **Rony** » 05 Apr 2014 20:54

T-BJP can go and take a hike. While i am all for TDP-BJP alliance but the way T-BJP is demanding sun and moon for the alliance with the specific purpose to destroy the talks is making me puke. After TDP conceded their earlier demand of 45 assembly and 8 LS, now T-BJP wants 60 assembly and 9 LS.

http://www.deccanherald.com/content/396 ... iance.html

ShyamSP · Post by **ShyamSP** » 05 Apr 2014 21:27

Rony wrote:T-BJP can go and take a hike. While i am all for TDP-BJP alliance but the way T-BJP is demanding sun and moon for the alliance with the specific purpose to destroy the talks is making me puke. After TDP conceded their earlier demand of 45 assembly and 8 LS, now T-BJP wants 60 assembly and 9 LS.

http://www.deccanherald.com/content/396 ... iance.html

Central party under Sushma only spoiled them.

T-BJP idiots can't win ward elections (Municipality recently or Panchayati 8 months ago) now they have Gonthemma Korikalu (desires/wants more than their capacity).

In SA both INC and BJP are liabilities, it is better TDP goes alone in SA. TDP should go after BCs and settlers in T so T-BJP walas will bite their dust. With 2-3 seats representation, BJP can't go anywhere even for next elections.

RamaY · Post by **RamaY** » 05 Apr 2014 21:36

T-BJP is following TRS cookbook. Be a non-compromising agitative party in negotiation - a.k.a Moorkha to win the game.

Supratik · Post by **Supratik** » 05 Apr 2014 21:43

I think Modi should intervene and ensure alliance. They are being suicidal - both TDP and BJP.

gandharva · Post by **gandharva** » 05 Apr 2014 21:48

ShyamSP wrote:
Rony wrote:T-BJP can go and take a hike. While i am all for TDP-BJP alliance but the way T-BJP is demanding sun and moon for the alliance with the specific purpose to destroy the talks is making me puke. After TDP conceded their earlier demand of 45 assembly and 8 LS, now T-BJP wants 60 assembly and 9 LS.

http://www.deccanherald.com/content/396 ... iance.html
Central party under Sushma only spoiled them.

T-BJP idiots can't win ward elections (Municipality recently or Panchayati 8 months ago) now they have Gonthemma Korikalu (desires/wants more than their capacity).

In SA both INC and BJP are liabilities, it is better TDP goes alone in SA. TDP should go after BCs and settlers in T so T-BJP walas will bite their dust. With 2-3 seats representation, BJP can't go anywhere even for next elections.

That's what i said, it's not good sign for future. BJP can't dump its leaders & cadres(who r so hostile to TDP) for an alliance. Therefore, go all alone.

Iss Gaane (TDP-BJP allaince) ki taal bigad chuki hai.

I don't mind BJP going alone even if UPA-3 comes back to power.

Shanmukh · Post by **Shanmukh** » 05 Apr 2014 21:52

Supratik wrote:I think Modi should intervene and ensure alliance. They are being suicidal - both TDP and BJP.

You greatly underestimate the hatreds at work here. And also, for all the excoriation of the BJP on this board, CBN is also penny wise, pound foolish. He is trying to finish Purandareshwari in SA, so he can be unchallenged. BJP can't allow that.

RamaY · Post by **RamaY** » 05 Apr 2014 22:11

I asked few Kamma networks in power.

The Krishna/Gunter Kammas look down on Chittur Kammas & thats why CBN is bringing BC face to TDP.

CBN is transforming TDP. I won't be surprised if he does a 'Srikakula Andhra Maha Vishnu' to TDP.

devesh · Post by **devesh** » 05 Apr 2014 22:31

multiple issues at work here.

There might be internal rivalries among the K's. I'm not too well versed on that front, so can't really comment.

my problem with TDP is that there is no ideological evolution in that entity. what is the end goal of TDP. they want Congress Mukth AP. great! but they tried it once before and still, INC and YSR came back to power. also, what is the long term destiny of AP? do we forever continue to keep picking between INC on one side and a regional entity on the other.

TDP's ideological evolution has come to a stop. for the next stage, you need overt Saffron, not the chupa-chupi games that TDP wants.

in Telangana, TRS is remaining an independent entity. and as long as this is the case, TDP will NEVER win majority on its own. for TDP to even hope to win in T, they would need TRS and INC to merge. this is why I've now come to believe that TRS remaining alive for now might be good. the ex-TDP base needs to find an "ideology" and move to that side. otherwise, it will be the same old patterns repeating themselves.

the way I see it, if TDP and BJP don't ally: both of them will be nowhere in T in 2014. their only hope is to ally. but this is a greater disaster to TDP than it is to BJP. the old TDP base in T, and the TDP head honchos need to understand that the next "grand coalition" in T is only possible if it is backed up by a solid ideology to attract a bigger voter base.

if the TDP-BJP alliance doesn't happen for this round: it will be finish for TDP in T. the base will have to look for an actual ideology based bastion with "center" to back it up. and it's not as if this is happening in vacuum. there are allies and friends to be made right next door. on all 3 sides of T, there are strong BJP roots. time to make use of them and propel T into the BJP circles.

this is why we are seeing so much heartache from SA voices even here on BRF. if the alliance doesn't happen, BJP will still survive. and in fact, it will lead to TDP's erosion in T and BJP will be in a position to bring its own old Base back - that it had abandoned in 1998 for coalition Dharma.

needlessly giving in to TDP's demands when there are other K aspirants in SA who wish to enter into serious discussions with BJP, is foolishness. Naidu will simply come back to bite BJP when they least suspect it. Naidu has done it in the past. and he will do it again, given half a chance. he also wants to establish his own dominance in K circles in SA. and he wants to do this by making BJP shaft other K aspirants who wish to enter into BJP. it would be phenomenally foolish of BJP to entertain Naidu's childish pet peeves. if K's or anybody else want to finally look for a serious understanding with BJP, then that is BJP's business. there is no need for BJP to sabotage itself to satisfy CBN's ambitions.

Supratik · Post by **Supratik** » 05 Apr 2014 22:33

nageshks wrote: You greatly underestimate the hatreds at work here. And also, for all the excoriation of the BJP on this board, CBN is also penny wise, pound foolish. He is trying to finish Purandareshwari in SA, so he can be unchallenged. BJP can't allow that.

Even then they have both to gain from an alliance. The BJP will come a poor fourth in T and TDP may or may not win SA if you go by opinion polls. Both are being suicidal. It is time for central leadership to intervene. I don't see TDP as a force in T in the long term as it has become a one-man party - previously NTR and now CBN who will be confined to SA. BJP will come into the reckoning if it wins significant number of seats in alliance with TDP. Imagine Bihar during Laloo raj. BJP was not in the picture pre-division in the north. But the alliance with JD-U helped.

gandharva · Post by **gandharva** » 05 Apr 2014 22:34

I don't see how BJP and TDP can co-exist if Modi has plans to get majority on its own in future.

geeth · Post by **geeth** » 05 Apr 2014 22:56

There is a strong link between CBN & JJ. May be they are trying something together..

RajeshA · Post by **RajeshA** » 05 Apr 2014 23:00

As I see it, TG and AP are putting different pressures on BJP. While each unit would be ready to go alone without TDP in the hope that even if they draw a duck this time, they can build up the party in future.

Despite BJP being considered a party of bifurcation in Seemandhra, the TDP+BJP combo exudes an image of development, where NDA in the Center and a TDP or TDP+BJP govt. in AP can do a lot for AP. This overcomes the bitterness of bifurcation. In this sense, an alliance helps BJP overcome the image of a party of bifurcation, and it gives TDP an extra gravitas, enough to allow it to dislodge YSRCP from any govt-forming potential.

But the alliance also curbs BJP's potential to grow. And should it go alone now it would diminish TDP's image as an agent of development and also cut votes that could go to TDP, thus spoiling its chances.

In Telangana, TG-BJP unit does not seem to want an alliance at all. An alliance may help more settlers to vote for BJP, but according to its calculus it would also repel other voters who would vote for it as a matter of showing Telangana pride.

There is no perfect solution in TG and AP for neither BJP nor TDP.

Question is: Is NaMo feeling sure of pulling it off at the Center without the need of 42 TG+AP MPs? If yes, then he should allow BJP to grow.
Question is: Is CBN feeling sure of pulling it off in AP without the need of BJP to bolster its credentials and not to cut its votes? If yes, then he could consider going it alone in AP. TG would still be a TDP massacre.

Perhaps NaMo shd make a different agreement with CBN. If he allows certain BJP MPs and MLAs to win in Seemandhra, he would allow a couple of TDP MPs to win in Telangana, otherwise TG-BJP unit would go after TDP only. If they reach such a deal, then CBN can be part of the NDA post-poll, regardless of whether NDA needs him or not. If there is no agreement then of course, TDP and BJP are enemies.

ShyamSP · Post by **ShyamSP** » 05 Apr 2014 23:07

devesh wrote:multiple issues at work here.

There might be internal rivalries among the K's. I'm not too well versed on that front, so can't really comment.

my problem with TDP is that there is no ideological evolution in that entity. what is the end goal of TDP. they want Congress Mukth AP. great! but they tried it once before and still, INC and YSR came back to power. also, what is the long term destiny of AP? do we forever continue to keep picking between INC on one side and a regional entity on the other.

TDP's ideological evolution has come to a stop. for the next stage, you need overt Saffron, not the chupa-chupi games that TDP wants.

in Telangana, TRS is remaining an independent entity. and as long as this is the case, TDP will NEVER win majority on its own. for TDP to even hope to win in T, they would need TRS and INC to merge. this is why I've now come to believe that TRS remaining alive for now might be good. the ex-TDP base needs to find an "ideology" and move to that side. otherwise, it will be the same old patterns repeating themselves.
..

Sorry you seem to be stuck at Safforn is the ideology all parties need to adopt.

TDP ideology is socio-political ideology. Its actions in AP (both in T and in non-T) followed that pattern. Even BC declaration towards the upliftment of Badugu-Balaheena Vargalu (weaker sections) is part of its ideology.

Ideology is not issue. It is how good it plays political games - currently it is getting enough blows from INC-TRS in T and it has to bid for its time to punch back. In AP, it cleaned whole INC leadership in return.
Issue it how political games are played. So far TDP is doing fine with some setup backs in some places.

SA is becoming bi-polor like TN with fight between TDP and YSRC without any national parties is unexpected looking from 3 years ago. YSRC is even worse that they don't have any ideology except YSR-bhajan. Two parties cleaned up any other parties that have "ideology", whatever it is, from one of the rich regions of the nation.

devesh · Post by **devesh** » 05 Apr 2014 23:29

http://www.newindianexpress.com/electio ... 151468.ece

TDP-BJP Alliance Will Benefit Both: Purandeswari

When asked whether TDP chief N Chandrababu Naidu was opposed to her candidature, she said her candidature was for the BJP to decide.

Shanmukh · Post by **Shanmukh** » 05 Apr 2014 23:43

devesh wrote:http://www.newindianexpress.com/electio ... 151468.ece

TDP-BJP Alliance Will Benefit Both: Purandeswari

When asked whether TDP chief N Chandrababu Naidu was opposed to her candidature, she said her candidature was for the BJP to decide.

My gut says that BJP should send Purandareshwari to Assembly, from a seat she can win on her own without CBN. CBN will try to finish her off. Trusting CBN about Purandareshwari extremely unwise.

RamaY · Post by **RamaY** » 05 Apr 2014 23:48

Devesh garu,

TDP was first Congress-MUKTH-Bharat party. Let's give it the credit where it is due.

Its long term goal is to remove Delhi sultanate hold over old Kakatiya kingdoms like in a old Nayaka networks. It is not acceptable to other Nayaka groups (Telangana, R.Seema) as it was before. It is continuation of that inter anti-sultanate rivalry in modern structures.

The end of it will come, if mother Vagdevi is kind to me, in the lines of new Srikakula Andhra Mahavishnu model. Let's see if it comes out. What happens if CBN makes Tirumala Venkateswara as the permanent president of TDP (it is very common for Tirumala Venkateswara to be a formal business partner in many (modern) businesses in Andhra) and builds a politburo around it?

TDP has a larger purpose and it is yet to be fulfilled.

RajeshA · Post by **RajeshA** » 06 Apr 2014 00:16

I think the reason, why NaMo is eager for an alliance with TDP is because it makes the anticipation among the people of his PMship even more inevitable.

That takes away even more of the fight in the Congress and other regional parties to put up a credible fight.

If with TDP, surveys are putting pre-poll NDA at 265, then basically all the reasons that Nitish, Amma, Didi, Naveen etc are dishing out to the voters, that they will have an important role to play in the formation of the govt. at the Center null and void.

So people would tend to vote BJP even more in all these regions.

Also those who think that Congress can still play some role in govt. formation, say of a third front, rethink their assessments. These people may not even go out and vote expecting the unavoidable.

There must be around 10-15 seats around the country which BJP can win simply because of making themselves the expected winners.

devesh · Post by **devesh** » 06 Apr 2014 01:38

RamaY wrote:Devesh garu,

TDP was first Congress-MUKTH-Bharat party. Let's give it the credit where it is due.

Its long term goal is to remove Delhi sultanate hold over old Kakatiya kingdoms like in a old Nayaka networks. It is not acceptable to other Nayaka groups (Telangana, R.Seema) as it was before. It is continuation of that inter anti-sultanate rivalry in modern structures.

The end of it will come, if mother Vagdevi is kind to me, in the lines of new Srikakula Andhra Mahavishnu model. Let's see if it comes out. What happens if CBN makes Tirumala Venkateswara as the permanent president of TDP (it is very common for Tirumala Venkateswara to be a formal business partner in many (modern) businesses in Andhra) and builds a politburo around it?

TDP has a larger purpose and it is yet to be fulfilled.

TDP was not the first. the old Saffron networks which spawned Jan Sangh, later Janata Dal, which eventually transformed into BJP: that is the first genuinely Congress-mukth formation.

the 1940's/early-50's Communist Idealists who were eliminated or subverted by INC into joining the "mainstream": that section of the TDP perhaps can be treated on par with the Saffron networks which spawned BJP. but by the time NTR formed TDP, that section had already passed the baton to the younger generation anyway.

TDP will ultimately have to merge into a broader consciousness with ambitions that span all of India. not just AP. till now, they have shown no inclination that they have such a vision.

I will leave the Andhra Mahavishnu story to you. I've explored such tales in past, and most likely all are simply "foundation" stories without much substance. like Kumari Kamdam nonsense in TN. tall tales that sprang up at some point in history. I find no solace in such things. only real people and their actions can save or destroy anything. keeping hopes on mythical deities is meaningless.

there are real historical people and events which give me more inspiration than any mythical deity whose story might have been created at some point in time by some group or person to deal with their insecurities.

vivek.rao · Post by **vivek.rao** » 06 Apr 2014 02:17

Ravi ‏@RakiTweets 5m
finally it is final,TDP+BJP sealed, 47/8 in Telangana and 15/5 in AP for BJP. At 11 AM joint press meet by parties

Lets see how much is this true

gandharva · Post by **gandharva** » 06 Apr 2014 03:20

gandharva · Post by **gandharva** » 06 Apr 2014 03:24

vivek.rao wrote:
Ravi ‏@RakiTweets 5m
finally it is final,TDP+BJP sealed, 47/8 in Telangana and 15/5 in AP for BJP. At 11 AM joint press meet by parties
Lets see how much is this true

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 06 Apr 2014 03:36

So realistically how many of those seats will BJP and TDP win now that they are in alliance?

I agree TDP-BJP alliance knocks the 3rd front talk and makes the voters more incentivized to vote for Modi.

gandharva · Post by **gandharva** » 06 Apr 2014 03:36

PP guy's reaction. At least he isn't talking YSRCP majority in TG anymore.

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 06 Apr 2014 03:41

He can also hang himself from that fan!

gandharva · Post by **gandharva** » 06 Apr 2014 03:58

Kakkaji · Post by **Kakkaji** » 06 Apr 2014 04:14

So YSR's picture in PP posted above shows him in Hindu-style turban and a tilak on the forehead. Is that how that EJ fooled the Hindus in AP to vote for him?

bhavani · Post by **bhavani** » 06 Apr 2014 05:16

Kakkaji wrote:So YSR's picture in PP posted above shows him in Hindu-style turban and a tilak on the forehead. Is that how that EJ fooled the Hindus in AP to vote for him?

Till 2009-2010 majority of folks did not even know that YSR was a christian. Only after his death did the fact of his family being christian come into common knowledge.

Muppalla · Post by **Muppalla** » 06 Apr 2014 06:36

If you see the list of 8/17 given to BJP, there is no Hyderabad. TDP standing from it that means. So BJP don't even want to fight against Owaisis ? To me even though that seat is lose-lose seat why can't it take that also and say 9/17 means majority is contented by BJP.

BJP got a very very good deal. Probably in Araku and Rajampet the TDP is giving the seats along with candidates.

Rony · Post by **Rony** » 06 Apr 2014 07:49

RamaY wrote:TDP was first Congress-MUKTH-Bharat party. Let's give it the credit where it is due.Its long term goal is to remove Delhi sultanate hold over old Kakatiya kingdoms like in a old Nayaka networks. It is not acceptable to other Nayaka groups (Telangana, R.Seema) as it was before. It is continuation of that inter anti-sultanate rivalry in modern structures.

Interesting ! Are you referring to the Musunuri Nayakas, the Kamma warrior chieftans of Kakatiya Army who regained Telangana and Andhra from Delhi Sultanate after Kakatiya's defeat ? The unity fostered by Musunuri's among the nayakas showed strain fulled by envy of the Velama Nayakas who joined hands and induced the Muslims to invade Telangana. Never thought it that way but you may have a point there.

RamaY · Post by **RamaY** » 06 Apr 2014 09:51

Yes Rony garu

Pls read about Srikakula Andhra vishnu story to see where I am going with my thought....

Paul · Post by **Paul** » 06 Apr 2014 09:58

So was YSR buried or cremated?

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 06 Apr 2014 10:29

Paul wrote:So was YSR buried or cremated?

Buried.

SanjayC · Post by **SanjayC** » 06 Apr 2014 10:38

Kakkaji wrote:So YSR's picture in PP posted above shows him in Hindu-style turban and a tilak on the forehead. Is that how that EJ fooled the Hindus in AP to vote for him?

Yes. I was living in Hyderabad when YSR was the CM. There were massive hoardings about him all over the city, with him sitting in a meditation pose like Buddha, wearing tilak and turban Hindu style, the sacred thread around his wrist. In one poster, he was shown carrying a tray on his head in Hindu attire, on his way to Tirupati Temple. In not a single picture anywhere, you would see him wearing a cross or his middle name (Samuel) will be used. This is how they fooled Hindus. And Hindus being Hindus, they were clueless as usual about the man and his rabid EJ activities. Their knickers got into a twist when they saw the man being buried, not cremated.

RajeshA · Post by **RajeshA** » 06 Apr 2014 10:58

Muppalla wrote:If you see the list of 8/17 given to BJP, there is no Hyderabad. TDP standing from it that means. So BJP don't even want to fight against Owaisis ? To me even though that seat is lose-lose seat why can't it take that also and say 9/17 means majority is contented by BJP.

BJP got a very very good deal. Probably in Araku and Rajampet the TDP is giving the seats along with candidates.

From what I gathered, LS seats for BJP are:

TG: Karimnagar, Nizamabad, Secunderabad, Warangal, Bhuvanagiri, Mahabubnagar, Medak, Zaheerabad
AP: Narasapuram, Rajampet, Tirupati, Vizag, Ongole

pankajs · Post by **pankajs** » 06 Apr 2014 11:56

TIMES NOW ‏@timesnow 1h

Sources: BJP will contest 8 Lok Sabha seats out of 17 in Telangana and five seats from Seemandhra

RajeshA · Post by **RajeshA** » 06 Apr 2014 12:10

India Today and ABP News are giving BJP only 7 LS seats in Telangana.

Virupaksha · Post by **Virupaksha** » 06 Apr 2014 12:42

ysr's middle name is sandinti not samuel

RajeshA · Post by **RajeshA** » 06 Apr 2014 12:49

BJP-TDP Press Conference is ongoing in Hyderabad: CBN, Prakash Javadekar, ....

ShyamSP · Post by **ShyamSP** » 06 Apr 2014 13:10

RajeshA wrote:
Muppalla wrote: BJP got a very very good deal. Probably in Araku and Rajampet the TDP is giving the seats along with candidates.
From what I gathered, LS seats for BJP are:

TG: Karimnagar, Nizamabad, Secunderabad, Warangal, Bhuvanagiri, Mahabubnagar, Medak, Zaheerabad
AP: Narasapuram, Rajampet, Tirupati, Vizag, Ongole

BJP has very good chances in Sec'bad and Mahabubnagar in T and Narasapuram, Tirupati, Vizag in SA.

In SA what Muppala said is key. TDP needs to do work for BJP with candidates, promotions, voter and booth management, putting posters, serving liquor and biriyani packets and may be cleaning toilets.

In return, BJP will be doing back-stabbing in Telangana unless they kicked out Sushma and YSR stooges and give big whipping to T-BJP.