Levant crisis - III

habal · Post by **habal** » 13 Dec 2016 16:56

I think all these Russians are making a song & dance of passing around the blame. With so many satellites and drones and Iranian eyes, chinese eyes in the sky there is no friggin way some 100 isis technicals and 4k personnel

even in a dust storm can make it to palmyra from mosul without detection. A deal has been struck shamelessly at the expense of Syria.

UlanBatori · Post by **UlanBatori** » 13 Dec 2016 17:08

66% got destroyed, but apparently the 33% were too much for the stretched-thin defenders of what was left of Palmyra.
Now T-4 airbase is serving as a nice ripe jackfruit to bring out all the flies. Question is whether they have enough Pest-e-shaeed to get them all in time.
Looks hopeless to hold Syrian cities long-term, hain? These endless hordes of Saudi-funded, American-equipped pests swarming out of the deserts? It's like Jammu-Kashmir 1948. Wonder if Assad will make the same compromise as u-no-hu. Alternative is to seek regime change in Turkey and Saudia.

TSJones · Post by **TSJones** » 13 Dec 2016 17:13

just wondering if anybody else on this thread might have thought that Assad and Putin put everything they had into taking Aleppo and therefore left Palmyra practically defenseless? geez....maybe?

and just maybe Palmyra at the present time is not all that strategically important? huh?

habal · Post by **habal** » 13 Dec 2016 17:19

a few quick points

a) it's their last gasp before regime-change in USA. they have weeks before def sec and cia head change. And their cozy live-in relations with these serpent heads are compromised.

b) 4k personnel and 100 odd technicals entered undetected out of which 300 isis were killed and 60 technicals destroyed. For any attacking force this many losses would be too heavy to bear. But for isis this is 3.7k personnel and 40 technicals too many. It's a jackpot in isis terms.

c) If isis manage to destroy gas pipeline and facilities then that would be a blow during oncoming winter. So I do not think this was a trap set by Russia and Syria to snare ISIS.

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 13 Dec 2016 17:28

my reading of isis videos is each technical carries atmost some 6 or 7 people - 3 in the cab and 4 in the back(faces wrapped in cloth due to dust).
because space is also needed to carry weapons, ammo, water, fuel, medical kits, bedrolls, food, tools, spare parts ... so a good number of trucks or technicals also needed for this. there aint nothing much to eat out there unlike the fertile orchards of northern syria.

you are talking of 600-800 toyota 4x4 pickups to move this lot. if they brought bulldozers to cut through berms or put up new berms or IFV/tanks these would be hauled by semi trucks on flatbeds.

an army on the march even a light army like daesh is far more than a troop of chimps with a AK54 and 6 mags each

syria only had some 1000 troops in palmyra, a few more NDF types in the gas fields up north, a few russian SF units and a few Al shaitat tribal militia and one section of tiger force called shaheen force.

I figure they kept on stockpiling arms and logistics in various places over time, and when the manpower came out of iraq mated these men to the gear and sent them out. in same way US stockpiles POL, weapons and ammo in GCC states and will fly in people in a emergency to use these.

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 13 Dec 2016 17:33

all talk of SyAF/RuAF blasting these forces is very premature. they are widely dispersed north and south of T4 on a front of some 40+40=80km and will disperse and reform for fresh attacks.

as mentioned if the russians could get their Tu214R in the air to use SAR radar to locate the clusters of vehicles in the desert, deploy ground based jammers to disrupt ISIS comms, use the SAR imagery to cue to ground attack sorties , do some industrial scale work with clusters and napalm from the Backfires and preferably keep 12 backfires in damascus things would be easier

also bring in kornets and trained crews from other parts of syria, even guests from PMU if the iraqis agree to break the main ISIS stinger - the mass VBIED attack.

failing that it will be going back to the same old well to draw water - 4th mech , desert hawks, tigers to finish up aleppo, delay the idlib plan and clean the mess here slowly.

IAF jaguars would have had a field day hunting these isis in the desert...

habal · Post by **habal** » 13 Dec 2016 17:37

****** pity these good guys. Hopping from one front to the other for sake of their land. John Kerry and acolytes do not believe in giving their enemy a break since their limb and worthless lives are safe in DC and their vacations are as per schedule.

this will be over sometime though, just need to hold on to these final moments is really tough. But if there is indeed a God above humanity and he is a just God and is fair then as of now he is creating his best thunderbolt yet to drop down on some miserable cretins who feast watching others die.

Ivan Sidorenko ‏
#Syria #Aleppo #SSNP Field Commander who alongside #SAA #NDF #Desert_Hawks #LiwaAlQuds & #Sea_Commandos helped capture #Sheikh_Saeed

Syria a #Desert_Hawks Commander of Assad/Lion machine gun group who helped capture #Sheikh_Saeed says “For your sake Palmyra we are coming”

Austin · Post by **Austin** » 13 Dec 2016 17:38

Street celebrations in Aleppo on news of Syrian Army retaking east of city – RT reporter

habal · Post by **habal** » 13 Dec 2016 17:41

Singha wrote:all talk of SyAF/RuAF blasting these forces is very premature. .....

doesn't Mi-28N with it night vision and thermal imaging tech scan the cool winter desert horizons and spot out these warm beardes bodies and their warmer technicals fleeing out into the distance from pretty far aloof. Even sats should have some such capabilities considering the desert, cold weather and warm bodies logic.

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 13 Dec 2016 17:43

^^ there are max 18 helis in T4 - half of them hinds and other half a mix of alligators and havocs. assuming servicability of 50% there would be 9 ready at any time - not much.

Khan 1st airborne goes in with some 250 helicopters a mix of apaches and blackhawks. thats more helis than any non-top-10 militaries.

palmyra is apparently a ghost town. limited number of people there were evacuated. so this time no human shields to deter bombing.

assad may flatten the place and rebuild a new town once the war is over. tourism is dead anyway and without tourism the place has no sustainable means to exist.

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 13 Dec 2016 18:29

https://elijahjm.wordpress.com/2016/12/ ... -this-war/

The Syrian war is not over yet; nevertheless, its course becomes clearer with the determination of Russia to win the war regardless of any possible changes or complications. The death or removal of Assad becomes irrelevant to the course of events in the long-term future.

Russia won this round in Syria. If the newly elected President Donald Trump follows his declared policy to avoid overthrowing governments and to fight terrorism, it means the US didn’t lose. In this case, the Russian-US objectives will meet: this after the deaths of hundreds of thousands, and the displacement of millions of refugees, caused by the US interventionist “neocon” administrations throughout the years. When two superpowers fight in the Middle East, there are no winners in that part of the world only the destruction of the land and of people losing their lives and property. At the end of the day, Syria has become a territory divided between Russian and American influence and a platform for their dispute to settle.

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 13 Dec 2016 18:34

http://www.thenational.ae/opinion/comme ... d-it#page1

Even Jabhat Fateh Al Sham, Al Qaeda’s rebranded franchise previously known as Jabhat Al Nusra, accepted "in principle" the formation of a political office during its stalled negotiations with Ahrar Al Sham for a merger. Political engagement should neither be understood as a departure from Salafi-jihadism or a vindication of the supposed moderate current.

The split on Saturday had little to do with ideological differences. The catalyst was principally a sentiment widely felt over the past few weeks: disillusionment with the Turkish role in northern Syria. Ankara is widely blamed for the weakening of the rebels in the north, after its intervention to fight against ISIL and the Kurds, combined with the apparent reduction in commitment to the rebels’ cause in Aleppo as a result.

Many suspected that Turkey had agreed with Russia to give up Aleppo in exchange for a free hand in the eastern countryside, a belief fuelled by the regime’s breakthrough in the city two weeks ago. Since Turkey has previously opposed a merger between Ahrar Al Sham and JFS, members advocating such a merger have been critical of those who opposed it as beholden to their sponsors.

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 13 Dec 2016 18:42

http://edition.cnn.com/2016/12/12/middl ... index.html

(CNN)Forces loyal to the Syrian regime have been entering homes in the last pockets of Aleppo held by rebels and shooting people on the spot, the United Nations has said.

A spokesman for the UN High Commissioner for Human Rights said it had been told that 82 civilians, including women and children, were shot in their homes or on the streets on Monday.
...
Rupert Colville, a spokesman for the UN High Commissioner for Human Rights, said he had received "deeply disturbing reports" of dead bodies lying in the streets and that residents were unable to retrieve them in the intense bombardment out of "fear of being shot on sight."

Colville said he had received reports of "pro-government forces killing at least 82 civilians in four different neighborhoods," many in their homes, adding that 11 women and 13 children were among them.

"We are filled with the deepest foreboding for those who remain in this last hellish corner of opposition held eastern Aleppo," Colville said.
"While some were reportedly able to flee yesterday, some were reportedly caught and killed on the spot and others arrested. "

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 13 Dec 2016 18:43

not one single white helmet seen or captured so far in 95% of the area captured. must be trained to Delta Force levels to escape smoothly intact to Sukkari where they are holed up and alleging massacres and atrocities and demanding to be let out.

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 13 Dec 2016 18:48

NYT MSM in full flow...

http://www.nytimes.com/2016/12/13/opini ... ght-region

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 13 Dec 2016 18:50

habal wrote:
Singha wrote:all talk of SyAF/RuAF blasting these forces is very premature. .....
doesn't Mi-28N with it night vision and thermal imaging tech scan the cool winter desert horizons and spot out these warm beardes bodies and their warmer technicals fleeing out into the distance from pretty far aloof. Even sats should have some such capabilities considering the desert, cold weather and warm bodies logic.

open src info is that sats can detect the heat plumes of ICBMs at launch , but moving that to groups of humans at room temp is a stretch.

but surely thermal imagers of airplanes and tanks can do that ... the ones on planes and UAVs are more powerful and can work even from 40,000ft.
but Rus has no reaper or ghawk type UAVs yet to play the game.

IndraD · Post by **IndraD** » 13 Dec 2016 19:01

Singha wrote:I figure they kept on stockpiling arms and logistics in various places over time, and when the manpower came out of iraq mated these men to the gear and sent them out. in same way US stockpiles POL, weapons and ammo in GCC states and will fly in people in a emergency to use these.

In this regard this should be accepted that rural Syria is hotbed of Sunni support and movement. It looks like borders of all these countries will be drawn again. According to ethnic divide.

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 13 Dec 2016 19:02

amazing boneyard in the khanate. 26,000 vehicles of all types + spares stored here, ready to be shipped either to the khan army or various miscreants, all-lies and munnas around the world.

must be 5000 tanks - more than anyone else just in storage.

TSJones · Post by **TSJones** » 13 Dec 2016 19:33

california is not the only equipment rehab facility. however its climate is ideal for long term storage,

there is a huge rehab in anniston. alabama.

also the tank oem factory at lima ohio does frame off restorations.

there are other army depots that I don't wish to talk about.

but main storage is in california because of the climate.

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 13 Dec 2016 19:41

Natgeo disvovery had a episode how the abrams are overhauled...had a cool machine to remove rust of the chassis using millions of balls blasted from all sides in a chamber

SSharma · Post by **SSharma** » 13 Dec 2016 19:49

says something about murica that they let in RT into places like these.
sure theres nothing much sensitive but still, imagine if ptv news got a tour of one of tata truck building plants.

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 13 Dec 2016 19:52

CNN

Amid the chaos, the self-styled Syria Civil Defense volunteer rescue group -- also known as the White Helmets -- was among groups pleading for safe passage out of Aleppo for their volunteers and civilians.
"The regime has been trying to kill us for five years," the group said on Twitter. "Please don't give them this chance."

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 13 Dec 2016 19:53

^^^ elite ghost warriors as not a single one has been located dead or alive in any part of captured aleppo

TSJones · Post by **TSJones** » 13 Dec 2016 20:04

Singha wrote:^^^ elite ghost warriors as not a single one has been located dead or alive in any part of captured aleppo

you didn't really expect them to capture real troops did you?

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 13 Dec 2016 20:07

^^ er I was referring to the civil defence white helmets who prolifically posted videos and pics from aleppo

TSJones · Post by **TSJones** » 13 Dec 2016 20:18

Singha wrote:^^ er I was referring to the civil defence white helmets who prolifically posted videos and pics from aleppo

oh, ok. my bad.

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 13 Dec 2016 20:44

it seems rebels have vacated the north side of their pocket bustan al qasr and kallash and moved entirely to sukkari to await some kind of surrender deal. but saa is wary and has not moved yet into the vacated regions ... maybe in daylight tomorrow.

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 13 Dec 2016 20:45

based on MSM reports everyone is ventilating on twitter

Shadi Hamid
‏@shadihamid
We didn't lose our moral authority when Trump won. We lost it when we let Aleppo happen. This was, and is, the moral abomination of our time

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 13 Dec 2016 20:49

the area they have retreated into is perhaps the part of aleppo where there was civilian support for the jihadi takeover or where most of their families are housed.

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 13 Dec 2016 21:02

4 days after it fell, this band of 16 saa have trekked back from maher gas field across the mountains and evaded isis lines to reach T4

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 13 Dec 2016 21:03

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 13 Dec 2016 21:04

Ivan Sidorenko ‏@IvanSidorenko1 15h15 hours ago
#Syria #Aleppo Shadi Halwi: Battle of Aleppo began 5 years ago in Salah al Din Neighborhood and the battle will end in the same neighborhood

Ivan Sidorenko ‏@IvanSidorenko1 19h19 hours ago
#Syria #Aleppo Explanation why everyone in n city is celebrating Militants only in al ansari, al mashad, salah deen last bit of Sayf Dawla

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 13 Dec 2016 21:04

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 13 Dec 2016 21:08

man in middle is maj gen saleh the overall commander of allepo region

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 13 Dec 2016 21:16

CT - the russians withdrew a day or two before palmyra fell with no clear warning

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 13 Dec 2016 21:17

CT2

habal · Post by **habal** » 13 Dec 2016 21:23

Russians are not the ideologically committed soviets. They are nimble footed opportunists who make hay and cut deals even in thick of war proviso they are not pushed too much into corner.

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 13 Dec 2016 21:28

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 13 Dec 2016 21:30

those 44 tanks are nearly a regiment. will pose a significant threat when put to use.

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 13 Dec 2016 21:34

guy on extreme right looks like he hasnt visited a barber or taken a bath in years.

daesh squad near t4 airbase