Bharat Rakshak

sohamn wrote:

IndraD wrote: Modi stood his ground
refused to condemn Russia, asked for independent enquiry into Bucha. This riled Biden govt

I saw the 2+2 readouts and looks to me the Biden govt gave a tacit approval to what India wants. I think SJayashankar let a very astute diplomacy where he managed to indeed walk on egg shells and keep both partners happy or perhaps no sad.

The alternative would have been to sanction India and kill the Quad. But that is not acceptable right now. Biden chose to go along this time and hope for a different PM in the near future. He may even take steps towards that goal. The British were very successful for fighting till the last Indian soldier. I am sure the US would love to do that.
Gautam

A very good interview with a former NATO intelligence officer, that fills lot of gaps big and small in the discussion we're having here. Please watch.



https://youtu.be/r4zReg7Bhu8

While A_Gupta ji had a point, Cyrano ji’s gracious response was what makes such threads on BR worth reading and coming back to. We are all learning and we all make mistakes. That mistake by Cyrano ji doesn’t take away his contributions on this thread (IMO), but his humility in response underscores that we’re all trying to learn together. I also note that I disagree with many of Cyrano ji’s conclusions, but that’s a different point.

Deans ji great overview of the Russian army backup manpower but I did not follow that one point below

Deans wrote:….The estimate is that 250,000 conscripts * 3 years, gives a reserve pool of 750,000 men. …..

Where’s that 250,000 number coming from?

Finally for war nerds looking for war videos, here’s another possible classic in the tradition of the helicopter shoot down. Tank fires into a group of soldiers at point blank range (warning- NSFW):

https://www.reddit.com/r/CombatFootage/ ... ame=iossmf

Baikul wrote:
Deans ji great overview of the Russian army backup manpower but I did not follow that one point below

Deans wrote:….The estimate is that 250,000 conscripts * 3 years, gives a reserve pool of 750,000 men. …..

Where’s that 250,000 number coming from?

Baikul ji, The conscript numbers are like this:
There are approx. 650000 men eligible to be conscripted every 6 months (18-25 y.o who have not been conscripted).
The Govt requires only 125-132000 to fill vacancies in the army every 6 months. That is the number called up from the pool of 650000.
So, 250-265k men undergo conscription each year (2 drafts, 6 months apart), about 250,000 complete their training.
Some of these men go into positions in the Navy or Air force, or in non combat roles in the army. So, of the 250,000 men, about 200,000
would have basic infantry, armor, artillery training in a combat unit (albeit serving for 4 months only).

https://www.wionews.com/world/ukraine-w ... ing-470614
Ukraine war pushes Germans to change. They are wavering.
Katrin Bennhold and Steven Erlanger © 2022 The New York Times Company The New York Times
Berlin, Germany, Apr 12, 2022
Chancellor Olaf Scholz surprised the world, and his own country, when he responded to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine with a 100 billion euro ($108 billion) plan to arm Germany, send weapons to Ukraine and end his nation’s deep dependence on Russian energy.
It was Germany’s biggest foreign policy shift since the Cold War, what Scholz called a “Zeitenwende” — an epochal change — that won applause for his leadership at home and abroad.
But six weeks later, the applause has largely ceased. Even as images of atrocities emerge from Ukraine since the invasion by President Vladimir Putin of Russia, Scholz has ruled out an immediate oil and gas embargo, saying it would be too costly. He is dragging his feet on sending 100 armored vehicles to Ukraine, saying that Germany must not “rush ahead.” There are new debates in the ruling coalition about just how to go forward with the massive task Scholz has laid out, let alone how fast.
Already doubts are building as to the German government’s commitment to its own radical plans. “Zeitenwende is real, but the country is the same,” said Thomas Bagger, a senior German diplomat who will be the next ambassador to Poland. “Not everyone likes it.”
The changes Scholz announced go far deeper than his commitment to spend 2% of gross domestic product on the military — some 70 billion euros ($76 billion) a year, compared with France’s 41 billion euros ($44 billion).
They go to the heart of Germany’s postwar identity as a peaceful exporting nation — and to the heart of a business model that has enriched Germany and made it Europe’s largest and most powerful economy.
Now Germans are being asked “to rethink everything — our approach to doing business, to energy policy, to defense and to Russia,” said Claudia Major, a defense expert at the German Institute for International and Security Affairs. “We need a mindset change. We need to recognize that this is about us — that power politics are back and Germany must play a role.” But she added, “Once again Germany is not leading. It is being dragged.”
Truly reorienting Germans for a new world where security has its real costs — not only in terms potentially of lost lives, but also in lost trade, higher energy prices, slimmer profits and lower economic growth — will be a wrenching endeavor that will take time, even a generation, and more than an afternoon’s policy pronouncement. That realization is dawning, for Germans and their frustrated European partners.
.....
Gautam

https://www.spiegel.de/international/eu ... 7b18accf0a
Weapons for Ukraine
The German Government’s Hesitance over the War Is Angering Allies
Berlin has refused to go along with a gas embargo against Russia and it has been slow with weapons deliveries for Ukraine. The atrocities in Bucha are creating additional pressure for the German government to act.
By Giorgos Christides, Matthias Gebauer, Konstantin von Hammerstein, Martin Hesse, Steffen Lüdke, Ralf Neukirch, Jan Petter, Marco Schulz und Gerald Traufetter, 08.04.2022
A state secret. It can be seen behind the security gate of the Marie Elisabeth Lüders Building, one of the many offices in Berlin of the German parliament, the Bundestag. Mobile phones and digital watches are prohibited in parliament’s Secret Protection Unit. Anyone who wants to read confidential documents here has to turn in their notes after reading them. They are kept locked until the next visit.
Members of parliament often send their staff to the room if they have the appropriate security clearance. But the document currently displayed in the red folder is classified as being so secret by the federal government that only the parliamentarians themselves are allowed to read it.
Under no circumstances should it be disclosed what weapons and equipment German has supplied to Ukraine so far. The list last got updated on Thursday. A selection of the things listed includes: 500 Stinger anti-aircraft missiles, 2,700 Strela surface-to-air missiles from former East German stocks, 3,000 anti-tank guns, 100 MG 3 machine guns, 16 million rounds of ammunition for various types of hand-held weapons and hundreds of anti-tank mines.
Also: 80 armored all-terrain vehicles, 50 medical Unimog trucks, 14 pallets of medical supplies, half a million one-man packs of rations, four drone defense systems, plus night vision equipment and binoculars. "If we do not talk publicly about the type and number of weapons supplied, there is a good reason for that," German Defense Minister Christine Lambrecht of the center left Social Democrats (SPD) said on Wednesday, justifying the secrecy. "Ukraine specifically asked for that. And we’re sticking to it." She could have guessed that Andriy Melnyk would contradict her. "That’s not true," the Ukrainian ambassador to Germany said on a popular political talk show on the public broadcaster ARD that same evening. And unfortunately, he added, there is "no open dialogue about what we need."
Melnyk knows how to put the Germans on the defensive. But sources in Lambrecht’s ministry defended their boss, saying that the Ukrainian deputy defense minister had explicitly warned against reports of arms deliveries at the end of March. That kind of information, after all, could help the Kremlin to "target its military actions more precisely."
Massive Pressure on Berlin
But by then, it was already too late. Once again, the German government had become the target of deep criticism. The Russian war against Ukraine is now entering its seventh week, and it has also left its mark on Berlin. Things are not going well for German Chancellor Olaf Scholz and his defense minister.
.....
Gautam

g.sarkar wrote:

sohamn wrote: I . Biden chose to go along this time and hope for a different PM in the near future. He may even take steps towards that goal. The British were very successful for fighting till the last Indian soldier. I am sure the US would love to do that.
Gautam

Indeed I would take the seeming American posturing with a bucket of salt. A crow does not change colours or it's nature even if it tries to sing

Why is india voting against Russia so important? It is not like Russia is going to lose due to india voting against it.

Why would india shoot herself in the foot?

https://www.deccanherald.com/internatio ... 00289.html
Recently a friend forwarded a message of US Army personnel captured in Mariupol when trying to flee??
Any confirmation of US deployment overtly or covertly in UKr??

Truly reorienting Germans for a new world where security has its real costs — not only in terms potentially of lost lives, but also in lost trade, higher energy prices, slimmer profits and lower economic growth — will be a wrenching endeavor that will take time, even a generation, and more than an afternoon’s policy pronouncement. That realization is dawning, for Germans and their frustrated European partners.

Just money and equipment doesn't make an army, soldiers and officers do. Generations of germans and europeans raised on low risk comfy service and mfg jobs must now toil hard to become soldiers, and some of them need to rise up to fill senior ranks to be effective in operations. That alone will take a decade or two.

Under no circumstances should it be disclosed what weapons and equipment German has supplied to Ukraine so far. The list last got updated on Thursday.

Then how did the details in the article come out, some German parliamentarian leaked it to the press?

The equipment listed however makes sense, nothing thats too heavy or complicated that needs months of training to operate. Of course Russia can interdict these supplies and UkrA in the east may not get these goodies. And if RA turns up the heat in Donbass, there may not be many UkrA soldiers left to use them.

If only EU countries, esp France and Germany showed a fraction of this seriousness to get the Minsk accords they themselves brokered implemented, and prevented the rise of neo-nazis who effectively control Ukraine today... we wouldn't be here.

Baikul wrote: we’re all trying to learn together. I also note that I disagree with many of Cyrano ji’s conclusions

Baikul ji,
Thanks. My posts are mostly based on French/EU media (all types) reports and TV +web channels, occasional discussions with relevant people and my own experiences and observations, processed according to my own capacities and biases. If I post something here, its to share a PoV, hoping it adds to a broader/deeper discussion on the forum. I must confess there is also inevitably a bit of egoism in trying to bring others towards my PoV. But surely not to claim that I alone have some mega-truth or great enlightenment.

Please feel free to point out where you disagree and why. Makes for a more interesting forum.

Rsatchi wrote:https://www.deccanherald.com/internatio ... 00289.html
Recently a friend forwarded a message of US Army personnel captured in Mariupol when trying to flee??
Any confirmation of US deployment overtly or covertly in UKr??

A lot of Americans are fighting as volunteers in Ukraine. But we will never know how many are present unofficially as advisors or contractors.

There are all nationalities there, here is a British one:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-n ... e-60894476

Infosys moving out of Russia.

https://www.news18.com/news/tech/infosy ... 35014.html

Looks like Mariupol is likely to fall, Russia reports abt 1000 UKR marines are about to surrender

SandeepA wrote:Infosys moving out of Russia.

https://www.news18.com/news/tech/infosy ... 35014.html

They were probably doing very little business in Ru (surely <100M$ in a 13.56B$ company), that too for foreign companies' Ru operations. If those foreign companies are cut off from Ru, makes little sense to stay there and risk woke political blowback. Anyway a pullout will look good these days, for damaad ji as well.

According to this report 1000 Ukr marines have surrended to Russia. Russia's defence ministry said 162 officers were among the marines who had surrendered to Russian and pro-Russian separatist forces. "In the town of Mariupol, near the Ilyich Iron and Steel Works, as a result of successful offensives by Russian armed forces and Donetsk People's Republic militia units, 1,026 Ukrainian soldiers of the 36th Marine Brigade voluntarily laid down arms and surrendered," the ministry said in a statement.
https://www.yahoo.com/news/ukraine-tell ... 18547.html

Meanwhile - interesting slap on all those newspapers which were floating stories about India being dropped from G7 invitation ..
>>>Flash: German government has dismissed reports of Berlin considering not to invite India for G7 because of it’s position concerning Russia’s war in Ukraine; G7 will take place from 26 to 28 June 2022 in Schloss Elmau, Bavarian Alps.

Tanaji wrote:There are all nationalities there...

And a desi as well...it is hard to wrap my mind around the thought process of these guys...

https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/cit ... 171956.cms

https://qz.com/india/2139750/sainikhesh ... teer-army/

KL Dubey wrote:

Tanaji wrote:There are all nationalities there...

And a desi as well...it is hard to wrap my mind around the thought process of these guys...

LIttle Drummer Girl

A lot of these are do-gooder types whose only experience of war is what they see in movies. So they sign up, and get out real quick if they are not killed before.

There are some ex armed forces types, but I wonder how many actual vets have volunteered that have combat experience. My guess is very few and with good reason.

Amber G. wrote:Meanwhile - interesting slap on all those newspapers which were floating stories about India being dropped from G7 invitation ..
>>>Flash: German government has dismissed reports of Berlin considering not to invite India for G7 because of it’s position concerning Russia’s war in Ukraine; G7 will take place from 26 to 28 June 2022 in Schloss Elmau, Bavarian Alps.

Rumor is a G'7 leader spoke up.

Russian cruiser Moskva was hit by Neptune missile per Ukraine. Russian source states it was ammo explosion due to fire and crew is safe.

https://twitter.com/osinttechnical/stat ... bh08MBjLZw

https://ria.ru/20220414/kreyser-1783435471.html

SandeepA wrote:Infosys moving out of Russia.

https://www.news18.com/news/tech/infosy ... 35014.html

I’m surprised there isn’t more reaction to this decision in India. Unless I’ve missed it.

Why should an Indian company owned by an Indian citizen pull out of Russia, jeopardising its medium to long term future in that nation? Just because a minority shareholder’s husband has political problems in a foreign land?

Cyrano ji, will elaborate later.

John ji, it’s interesting to read the Ukrainian claim, which is they ship was distracted by a overhead Bayraktar to blind it to the actual Neptune strike.

Some shareholder can probably sue Infosys for this.

John wrote:Russian cruiser Moskva was hit by Neptune missile per Ukraine. Russian source states it was ammo explosion due to fire and crew is safe.

https://twitter.com/osinttechnical/stat ... bh08MBjLZw

https://ria.ru/20220414/kreyser-1783435471.html

Whatever the truth may be, even if it's a genuine missile hit, it's equivalent to a mosquito bite on a marauding elephant.

If they've fired it from somewhere near Odessa, hoping to divert some Russian troops from the Donbass cauldron, it won't work. They'll get Kalibr missile strikes instead.

Cyrano wrote:

John wrote:Russian cruiser Moskva was hit by Neptune missile per Ukraine. Russian source states it was ammo explosion due to fire and crew is safe.

https://twitter.com/osinttechnical/stat ... bh08MBjLZw

https://ria.ru/20220414/kreyser-1783435471.html

Whatever the truth may be, even if it's a genuine missile hit, it's equivalent to a mosquito bite on a marauding elephant.

If they've fired it from somewhere near Odessa, hoping to divert some Russian troops from the Donbass cauldron, it won't work. They'll get Kalibr missile strikes instead.

Loss may not be so insignificant. It may affect ability to attack Odessa if that was an objective.

Baikul wrote:

SandeepA wrote:Infosys moving out of Russia.

https://www.news18.com/news/tech/infosy ... 35014.html

I’m surprised there isn’t more reaction to this decision in India. Unless I’ve missed it.

Why should an Indian company owned by an Indian citizen pull out of Russia, jeopardising its medium to long term future in that nation? Just because a minority shareholder’s husband has political problems in a foreign land?

Cyrano ji, will elaborate later.

John ji, it’s interesting to read the Ukrainian claim, which is they ship was distracted by a overhead Bayraktar to blind it to the actual Neptune strike.

Some shareholder can probably sue Infosys for this.

Companies tend to maximize profit and minimize risk. Why would a company with significant US exposure want to risk everything for peanuts?

There are many ways to attack/siege Odessa or to obviate the need to attack the city which I believe is what Russia prefers, given its a historic city founded by Catherine the great and not a huge industrial-port friche like Mariupol - which the Ukranians didn't mind using as a shield (in more ways than apparent) and Russians didn't mind reducing to rubble.

This pro Azov battalion YouTube video popped up as an ad for me. Slick propaganda on SM skills that weren't developed overnight in Ukr.

https://youtu.be/yfXFOOQgNTA

Cyrano wrote: Whatever the truth may be, even if it's a genuine missile hit, it's equivalent to a mosquito bite on a marauding elephant.

If they've fired it from somewhere near Odessa, hoping to divert some Russian troops from the Donbass cauldron, it won't work. They'll get Kalibr missile strikes instead.

It’s big loss of life seeing how bad the weather is in the area very hard to get anyone out via SAR and it was also command ship so it had Russian navy leadership.

The ship was proving area air defense for other ships with it knocked out the other ships are now vulnerable and cannot send any supplies over the sea to Crimea. Turkey will also not allow any other Russian naval ship from entering the Black Sea as well to replace it.

pravula wrote:

Baikul wrote:
I’m surprised there isn’t more reaction to this decision in India. Unless I’ve missed it.

Why should an Indian company owned by an Indian citizen pull out of Russia, jeopardising its medium to long term future in that nation? Just because a minority shareholder’s husband has political problems in a foreign land?
…

Some shareholder can probably sue Infosys for this.

Companies tend to maximize profit and minimize risk. Why would a company with significant US exposure want to risk everything for peanuts?

I don’t mind if they take a measured decision to enhance shareholder value, or whatever they want to call it.

The relevant part is that this decision by Infosys is being taken the instigation of a foreigner minority shareholder. At the exact time when that foreign minority shareholder’s husband gets into political trouble in England. And voila, Infosys decides to minimise risk?

I’ve read a few financial analyses, balance sheets and prospectuses in my time. This reeks of something else.

In fact Infosys is now bending backwards:

https://m.economictimes.com/news/compan ... 827771.cms

So no Russian operations or clients.

On a parallel note, I’m guessing Wipro, Cognizant, TCS etc will now all feel obliged to do something too.

John ji, it’s interesting to read the Ukrainian claim, which is they ship was distracted by a overhead Bayraktar to blind it to the actual Neptune strike.

It does look like they were testing the air defense only a day before Essen looks to have fired two at TB.2 looks like it didn’t hit anything (not a great news for our own Shtil-1).

https://twitter.com/ralee85/status/1514 ... rM6Zz1AuGA

Most likely they tried the same thing but this time fired the Ashm in general area, I suspect since TB.2 was in other side the RIF air defense FCR on Moskva was pointed at it. Why?

First of all Keep in mind Moskva has huge 180 degree blind spot to front of the ship with its RIF system (naval S-300) so it has to orient the ship to the target as it has only one RIF fire control radar. So if it is facing the TB.2 coming from one side it is completely blind to any missile coming from other side. Luckily it has Ak-630 to cover that weakness but it might not have worked or was disabled ( just like Israel Hanit attack but it faired better while being much smaller ship because it didn’t have 5 ton missiles which when they detonate can sink anything) .

This is by no chance unknown to others back in soviet days USN pilots practiced to exploit it and Ukranians built it so we’re also well aware of it.

John wrote: First of all Keep in mind Moskva has huge 180 degree blind spot to front of the ship with its RIF system (naval S-300) so it has to orient the ship to the target as it has only one RIF fire control radar. So if it is facing the TB.2 coming from one side it is completely blind to any missile coming from other side. Luckily it has Ak-630 to cover that weakness but it might not have worked or was disabled ( just like Israel Hanit attack but it faired better while being much smaller ship because it didn’t have 5 ton missiles which when they detonate can sink anything) .

This is by no chance unknown to others back in soviet days USN pilots practiced to exploit it and Ukranians built it so we’re also well aware of it.

Interesting.

This is a glaring weakness which admirably exploited by the UKR forces

This war is going to get dirtier before it ends. But I hope & pray it end soon.

KL Dubey wrote:

Tanaji wrote:There are all nationalities there...

And a desi as well...it is hard to wrap my mind around the thought process of these guys...

https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/cit ... 171956.cms

After returning he'll mention this in his application for american visa and easily get it. Abusing attacking Putin and Russia makes you apple of the eye of Anglo-cabal very fast.

I dont think so. Applications usually have a clause asking if they have been members of armed militias and this qualifies. These sort of people are less than pawns in this game and the guy probably has jeopardised his future for nothing.

https://www.rt.com/russia/553830-kiev-strike-possible/ Russia warns Ukraine it might strike Kiev

Moscow has so far refrained from attacking Ukrainian decision-makers, but if Kiev continues attempts to carry out acts of sabotage or conventional attacks inside Russia, this will change, the Russian Defense Ministry warned on Wednesday.

“We have seen attempts at sabotage and attacks by the Ukrainian military against facilities in Russian territory. If such attempts continue, the Russian Federation’s Armed Forces will strike at the decision-making centers, including Kiev – something we have so far refrained from,” explaned spokesman 2Major-General Igor Konashenkov.

While Konashenkov did not specify which strikes or attempts at sabotage he was referring to, on Monday Russia declared a heightened terrorism alert in three regions bordering Ukraine – Bryansk, Kursk and Belgorod – and several border municipalities in the regions of Krasnodar, Voronezh and Crimea.

Tanaji wrote:I dont think so. Applications usually have a clause asking if they have been members of armed militias and this qualifies. These sort of people are less than pawns in this game and the guy probably has jeopardised his future for nothing.

He might be discarded as the translators employed by the US forces in Afghanistan were. After the war is over who is going to remember him? Trump wanted Norwegian immigrants, he is just a brown desi with a risky background. His usefulness will be over.
Gautam

Apparently Moskva has reached Sevastopol port on its own (probably once the fire was put out...RN assessed that propulsion system still works along with much of structures maintaining integrity for low-speed cruise back to port). Western sources prematurely declared that Moskva was sunk and the glee that comes with a David (Ukrs) sinking the flagship of Goliath Navy was apparent...

link

Zynda wrote:Apparently Moskva has reached Sevastopol port on its own (probably once the fire was put out...RN assessed that propulsion system still works along with much of structures maintaining integrity for low-speed cruise back to port). Western sources prematurely declared that Moskva was sunk and the glee that comes with a David (Ukrs) sinking the flagship of Goliath Navy was apparent...

link

It’s probably being towed but I doubt it reached Sevastopol as you would have seen pics by now.