Narendra Modi vs the Dynasty: Contrasting Ideas of India

Prem · Post by **Prem** » 17 Apr 2013 09:37

NDA PM Ship declaration conundrum and shenanigans of the partenrs are apt reminder of age old saying.
Indic Kabhi Nahi Haara Yaan Maara Hai : Agar Harra Hai Yaan Marra Hai tho Apne Hi Bhai Ke Hatho Marra Hai.

member_22539 · Post by **member_22539** » 17 Apr 2013 09:38

What the paid media vomits mean nothing. The other day one SS member was on TV giving his say. He seemed in favor of Mr. Modi as PM candidate. All this crap about losing 25 seats is just paid media delusions. No one, least of all SS, would be worried about that. EVERYONE knows that once Mr. Modi gets BJP a good number, all allies will come crawling. And what is about this 10 seat extra? The paid media is probably having a wet dream, if they think that is only what Mr. Modi is gonna gain the BJP. I pity people who take the paid media seriously.

Hari Seldon · Post by **Hari Seldon** » 17 Apr 2013 09:45

Someone was asking about why the BJP's other Modi, on location in Bihar, was keeping mum. Well, Sushil Modi has spoken:

Bihar deputy CM criticises Nitish for attacking Modi on issue of secularism

Bihar Deputy Chief Minister Sushil Modi on Tuesday attacked his superior Nitish Kumar saying the way Gujarat Chief Minister Narendra Modi was targeted at the Janata Dal-United (JD-U) national executive was unfortunate and it should not have happened.
The BJP leader said that the partyâs central leadership would meet on April 18 to discuss the scenario arising after the JD-U attack on Modi. âThe party will take the necessary action at appropriate time,â he said.

Yagnasri · Post by **Yagnasri** » 17 Apr 2013 09:51

As per the so called survey INC is losing huge number of seats. But where? AP, Maharastra, Delhi, and so on. In all these places INC is fighting NDA allies and 3rd front gays like CBN who may never support INC. I thing accross the country there are few states wherein INC+ and BJP with positive allies are in direct fight. It is these seats BJP has to win handsomely and also the INC+ proxis like BSP, SP, NCP etc which will never support BJP and against which BJP can fight a hard fight. So they have to fight hard in Maharastra and UP against INC supporters and decimate them. These two states and big and ripe for change of path. In the 5 states BJP is in power and states like Rajasthan and Delhi wherein INC is in power with strong anti encumbasy it has huge chance. So 175+ is doable with planing and hard work.

Sushupti · Post by **Sushupti** » 17 Apr 2013 09:58

Pranav · Post by **Pranav** » 17 Apr 2013 10:05

Sanku wrote: What EJs fear is power going out of their hand ...

That is precisely why they want Advani, who is compromised and controllable.

Besides, they know that without Modi, BJP will not do well anyway.

Neela · Post by **Neela** » 17 Apr 2013 10:08

Pranav wrote: Is there a need for competent and patriotic governance? Where there is a need means will emerge to satisfy it. Nature abhors a vaccuum. People need transparency. If a vote for BJP means a vote for Advani as PM, so be it ... but voters need to know.

I do not know how this has got anything to do with the specific questions that were posed.

This is what you originally wrote.

Pranav wrote: Better for the people. If BJP makes clear that Modi will not be PM candidate then Modi's supporters will have a chance to evaluate their options. If BJP does not want to be an instrument for bringing competent patriots to power then other instruments will be required.

I will repeat the questions here.
You are not saying how it will be better.
What options do Modi's supporters have to evaluate? Vote Congress?
What are these other instruments?
WHat are you on about? What is this nature abhors a vacuum?

Pranav · Post by **Pranav** » 17 Apr 2013 10:14

Neela wrote: I do not know how this has got anything to do with the specific questions that were posed.

Your questions were answered but let's go over it again -

I will repeat the questions here.
You are not saying how it will be better.

Are you saying more transparency about BJP internal power equations is not good? If yes then why?

What options do Modi's supporters have to evaluate? Vote Congress?
What are these other instruments?

Why cannot new options emerge if a demand is not being met?

WHat are you on about? What is this nature abhors a vacuum?

http://idioms.thefreedictionary.com/Nat ... s+a+vacuum

Neela · Post by **Neela** » 17 Apr 2013 10:17

Remember Ania Loomba & Wharton.
Saswati Sarkar , Aseem were debating events with the lot. Some comments here: https://twitter.com/sarkar_swati

Seeing that the debate didn't go exactly as they wanted it to be, Loomba&Toorjo walked out be4 any of us could make closing statements /5n

Video to be put up soon.

anmol · Post by **anmol** » 17 Apr 2013 10:19

Sanku · Post by **Sanku** » 17 Apr 2013 10:26

Pranav wrote:
Sanku wrote: What EJs fear is power going out of their hand ...
That is precisely why they want Advani, who is compromised and controllable.

Besides, they know that without Modi, BJP will not do well anyway.

You argue in circles. You develop a strategy to lose, and when that is questioned, you turn around and say that those who put a strategy for winning are doing so because they can win and do others bidding -- when that is questioned you say the strategy for winning is one for losing.

Lets not turn this into another EVM round and round circus please.

Pranav · Post by **Pranav** » 17 Apr 2013 10:34

Sanku wrote:
You argue in circles. You develop a strategy to lose, and when that is questioned, you turn around and say that those who put a strategy for winning are doing so because they can win and do others bidding -- when that is questioned you say the strategy for winning is one for losing.

Lets not turn this into another EVM round and round circus please.

You are confused.

It is very simple.

Advani is compromised, power-hungry, controllable and afraid of Maino.

Without Modi, people are a lot less excited about BJP.

Then you want to bring in the issue of EVMs. Are you claiming that current EVMs are transparent. Are you claiming that transparency is not a requirement. You can post these claims in the EVM thread.

Sanku · Post by **Sanku** » 17 Apr 2013 10:42

Pranav wrote: You are confused.

It is very simple.

Advani is compromised, power-hungry, controllable and afraid of Maino.

Without Modi, people are a lot less excited about BJP..

No you are confused, I have already said that "I said so" is not a remote discussion device. Kindly do not prove a statement by "because I said so"

Chamka?

Pranav · Post by **Pranav** » 17 Apr 2013 10:45

Sanku wrote:
Pranav wrote: You are confused.

It is very simple.

Advani is compromised, power-hungry, controllable and afraid of Maino.

Without Modi, people are a lot less excited about BJP..
No you are confused, I have already said that "I said so" is not a remote discussion device. Kindly do not prove a statement by "because I said so"

Chamka?

The statements are self evident. Who has not seen Advani crawling and apologizing in front of Maino.

Who doubts that it is Modi who really energizes the BJP workers and the public?

Sanku · Post by **Sanku** » 17 Apr 2013 10:53

Pranav wrote:
The statements are self evident.

Which basically means that you are pulling it out of nowhere.

VikramS · Post by **VikramS** » 17 Apr 2013 10:55

Any talk of a non-NaMo BJP getting more seats is hallucination of the highest kind.

There is absolutely nothing which stops UPA from saying that NaMo CAN always become PM, to consolidate their vote-bank. And there has been enough visibility to NaMo that the vote-bank will buy it.

So no PM candidate or some other PM candidate will have a similar effect when it comes to consolidating anti-BJP vote-banks.

OTOH NaMo can consolidate the BJP vote-bank.

So any talk of non-NaMo BJP doing better is utter BS.

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 17 Apr 2013 10:55

truth be told LKA is treated no better than a dog by INC. in some function with The Family attending, they gave him a seat in the third row instead of the usual 1st row seat given to a leader of the oppn and senior leader.

yet all I see is the image of him with folded hands, paying his respects to the congis.

I guess he needs a bungalow in delhi and govt provided perks like lifelong AIIMS/baltimore/london medical treatment on demand hence the reluctance to take issue with anything.

we need a guy who owes NOTHING to the sultanate system and infact has been HOUNDED by them ... a outsider.

anmol · Post by **anmol** » 17 Apr 2013 10:59

He may fear for some of his relatives.

Sanku · Post by **Sanku** » 17 Apr 2013 11:05

Singha wrote: we need a guy who owes NOTHING to the sultanate system and infact has been HOUNDED by them ... a outsider.

Please Singha Saar, NaMo and Advani are the part of same system. Can you point a single way in which they are different? Advani even has cases against him where as NaMo does not. Attacks on Advani have been many and more virulent.

Getting carried away in shortsighted momentary wave is not for us oldies saar.

Sanku · Post by **Sanku** » 17 Apr 2013 11:06

VikramS wrote:Any talk of a non-NaMo BJP getting more seats is hallucination of the highest kind.

There is absolutely nothing which stops UPA from saying that NaMo CAN always become PM, to consolidate their vote-bank. And there has been enough visibility to NaMo that the vote-bank will buy it.

So no PM candidate or some other PM candidate will have a similar effect when it comes to consolidating anti-BJP vote-banks.

OTOH NaMo can consolidate the BJP vote-bank.

So any talk of non-NaMo BJP doing better is utter BS.

BJP cant win on its own, NDA is needed to win. That is a fact. So kindly factor that in before you start taking a ideological stance.

Chandragupta · Post by **Chandragupta** » 17 Apr 2013 11:11

I have asked atleast 20 people - friends & family. Will you vote for Advani? The responses, including that of my father, brother, GHQ, friends, cousins & colleagues has been unanimous - 'won't even vote'. After RJB, this is the biggest Hindu cause to come to the fore. Yes, NaMo is more Hindu Hriday Samrat than the development man, the latter is just a bonus. He personifies the Hindu cause. If BJP ditches the dominant Hindu cause of the present, they will be shooting the Hindutva movement in the head, the second time. The first being the RJB which they conveniently forgot. I, like many others, am still pissed at BJP not staking their 13 day, 13 month and then 2004 government on the building of the Grand Temple. If they fell while building the temple, Hindus would have ensured they got 270+. Now, its time BJP went full steam behind NaMo, declare him the PM designate a few months before the elections and infuse the campaign with Hindutva.

NaMo doesn't need to talk Hindutva, he personifies it. He can attack & rip apart the Mainos along with other senior BJP leaders while the B string attack the appeasement & talk soft & hard Hindutva.

BJP should put 100,000+ Karyakartas in a stadium in Delhi, do a shanknaad & beat nagadaas and coronate Narendra Modi as the future PM 2014.

Chandragupta · Post by **Chandragupta** » 17 Apr 2013 11:17

Sanku wrote:
VikramS wrote:Any talk of a non-NaMo BJP getting more seats is hallucination of the highest kind.

There is absolutely nothing which stops UPA from saying that NaMo CAN always become PM, to consolidate their vote-bank. And there has been enough visibility to NaMo that the vote-bank will buy it.

So no PM candidate or some other PM candidate will have a similar effect when it comes to consolidating anti-BJP vote-banks.

OTOH NaMo can consolidate the BJP vote-bank.

So any talk of non-NaMo BJP doing better is utter BS.
BJP cant win on its own, NDA is needed to win. That is a fact. So kindly factor that in before you start taking a ideological stance.

Saar, what is NDA but BJP+ ?

People like Nitish are scavengers who will happily move to Congress after they have scuttled BJP's chances by objecting to NaMo. The shrill voices against NaMo as PM are the ones who are most afraid. Nobody in the youth will vote for Advani, people won't even come out of their houses.

Yes, he is Modi's godfather & what not. But he doesn't enthuse the crowds anymore. Nobody wants to see another 80 year old has been in the gaddi. For those 15 seats in Bihar (and I'm being generous, with a Modi wave, JDU will get restricted to less than this), you will end up restricting BJP to 130-140 and destined to be in the dustbin for another 5 years while the country is looted.

Advani should gracefully retire & project himself as a party patriarch with no official position. His deputies like SS, AK, VG & SK should be kicked out as far as possible. They are all compromised & part of the establishment.

Sanku · Post by **Sanku** » 17 Apr 2013 11:26

Chandragupta wrote: Saar, what is NDA but BJP+ ?

Saar, that is not going to happen in 2014. Modi or no Modi. Even if BJP does fantastically in all its areas. In fact if NDA does not come to power in 2014 there many never be a BJP+. Some see for a period of turbulence, the govt falling down and giving BJP a chance to return. I harbor no such hopes. BJP needs to come to power, that means NDA, and that means what it takes to get there. It is essential. Existentialist battles can be fought later. Modi is not going away anywhere, in fact a non PM Modi may do better at center.

Also I am sure everyone has anecdotal evidence of how Modi is pulling crowds, however on the ground, the real evidence is thin. On the ground the same old, same old stuff is happening.

RJB? Forget it. Nothing remotely like RJB. I dont know how many have lived through RJB, I have. It meant nearly everyday a event by the Sangh, continuous events, speeches, kar seva, discussions. For a period of 2-3 years.

There is nothing on the ground, some activity on SM but that is all.

VikramS · Post by **VikramS** » 17 Apr 2013 11:27

Sanku wrote:
BJP cant win on its own, NDA is needed to win. That is a fact. So kindly factor that in before you start taking a ideological stance.

With a 3 way deal, who ever with the highest seats will rule.

If it comes down to it, Modi can take a back-seat role after the elections are done. But prior to the elections it is absolutely stupid not to get the most seats.

Pranav · Post by **Pranav** » 17 Apr 2013 11:36

Sanku wrote: Also I am sure everyone has anecdotal evidence of how Modi is pulling crowds, however on the ground, the real evidence is thin. On the ground the same old, same old stuff is happening.

There is no poll over the last six months, conducted by any polling agency or any media organization, which does not show that Modi is the most popular leader in the nation.

Sanku · Post by **Sanku** » 17 Apr 2013 11:36

VikramS wrote:
Sanku wrote:
BJP cant win on its own, NDA is needed to win. That is a fact. So kindly factor that in before you start taking a ideological stance.
With a 3 way deal, who ever with the highest seats will rule.

If it comes down to it, Modi can take a back-seat role after the elections are done. But prior to the elections it is absolutely stupid not to get the most seats.

Well
1) It is not a 3 way deal. It is a n way deal.
2) The assumption that the party with largest seats will rule is incorrect.

The party which will rule is which can put forth a 272 seat number in LS, from the N way collection.

Pranav · Post by **Pranav** » 17 Apr 2013 11:43

VikramS wrote: If it comes down to it, Modi can take a back-seat role after the elections are done. But prior to the elections it is absolutely stupid not to get the most seats.

This is a valid point. BJP should declare that Modi is its PM candidate, make him the chairman of the National Election Committee, giving him the authority to select the candidates.

That will maximize the BJP's individual tally.

That is the correct pre-election strategy.

Nitish is the only ally who may leave. But that will mean that the BJP can contest more seats in Bihar, besides gaining from the Modi wave in the rest of the nation.

VikramS · Post by **VikramS** » 17 Apr 2013 11:45

Sanku wrote:
VikramS wrote:
If it comes down to it, Modi can take a back-seat role after the elections are done. But prior to the elections it is absolutely stupid not to get the most seats.
Well
1) It is not a 3 way deal. It is a n way deal.
2) The assumption that the party with largest seats will rule is incorrect.

The party which will rule is which can put forth a 272 seat number in LS, from the N way collection.

http://www.rediff.com/news/slide-show/s ... 0417.htm#5
PC polled more than LKA

It is not an N way It is an: N, N, and n, n, n, n, way.

Become the N

Sanku · Post by **Sanku** » 17 Apr 2013 11:45

Pranav wrote:
Sanku wrote: Also I am sure everyone has anecdotal evidence of how Modi is pulling crowds, however on the ground, the real evidence is thin. On the ground the same old, same old stuff is happening.
There is no poll over the last six months, conducted by any polling agency or any media organization, which does not show that Modi is the most popular leader in the nation.

Which might well be the case.

But we dont have presidential polls in the country, so in any case that metric is worthless ab intio.

What matters is a extensive survey which shows how many extra votes will BJP get because of Modi vs no Modi, in which constituencies, and how will that change the seats. This can be seen only in regions where Modi has campaigned in the past and its results. So far they all show that same old political stuff is relevant.

Secondly even the survey's which show that Modi is the most popular leader are very limited, and in no way also answer the question whether people will vote BJP if NaMo was not the projected candidate.

So net net, sorry but I will not expect super human outputs from NaMo. That is just prepping him to fail.

Sanku · Post by **Sanku** » 17 Apr 2013 11:47

VikramS wrote: http://www.rediff.com/news/slide-show/s ... 0417.htm#5
PC polled more than LKA

Just goes to show what a joke such surveys are in terms of real political decision on the ground.

It is not an N way It is an: N, N, and n, n, n, n, way.

Become the N

Well BJP can not become N in 2014. NaMo or no NaMo, so lets come back to reality.

Pranav · Post by **Pranav** » 17 Apr 2013 11:52

Sanku wrote: Which might well be the case.

But we dont have presidential polls in the country, so in any case that metric is worthless ab intio.

In fact most political parties in India are presidential parties - be it INC, Trinamool, BJD, AIADMK, DMK, NCP, Shiv Sena ... in each of these there is a presidential leader and there is no doubt about who calls the shots in the party. People vote or not vote for a party depending on their views about the person who calls the shots in the party.

What matters is a extensive survey which shows how many extra votes will BJP get because of Modi vs no Modi, in which constituencies, and how will that change the seats. This can be seen only in regions where Modi has campaigned in the past and its results. So far they all show that same old political stuff is relevant.

Drawing conclusions from past campaigns would be highly erroneous, because in the past people were never voting for Modi as PM.

Pranav · Post by **Pranav** » 17 Apr 2013 11:55

Sanku wrote: Just goes to show what a joke such surveys are in terms of real political decision on the ground.

Is it not better to ask people what they think instead of going by the output of somebody's musharraf. That is what surveys are for.

Sanku · Post by **Sanku** » 17 Apr 2013 11:57

Pranav wrote: In fact most political parties in India are presidential parties -

Which is still not the same as India being presidential election process. All it means are that the parties have a strongman at helm. Period. You cant spin X to mean Y.

Forget India, even Gujarat, after all these years, still votes for caste/candidate combination in great measure.

Drawing conclusions from past campaigns would be highly erroneous, because in the past people were never voting for Modi as PM.

It is better than drawing conclusions from thin air, at least one more degree of reliability.

This setting up of NaMo as Mahdi or a Messiah who single handedly will clone himself in 10000000000000 copies and do everything is plain undeserving of BRF discussion.

Sanku · Post by **Sanku** » 17 Apr 2013 12:01

Pranav wrote:
Sanku wrote: Just goes to show what a joke such surveys are in terms of real political decision on the ground.
Is it not better to ask people what they think instead of going by the output of somebody's musharraf. That is what surveys are for.

That rediff web poll is not a survey in the first place. Just putting up a random web page for random people to click is not a survey, that's the least part of it. Read up on survey methods.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Survey_methodology

That rediff poll is time pass. Taking it seriously is hilarious.

Pranav · Post by **Pranav** » 17 Apr 2013 12:02

Sanku wrote: Which is still not the same as India being presidential election process. All it means are that the parties have a strongman at helm. Period. You cant spin X to mean Y.

What are you trying to prove by this strawman.

What I said is simple. People know who calls the shots in the party, and they decide to whether to vote for the party based on that.

It is better than drawing conclusions from thin air, at least one more degree of reliability.

It is a very very feeble indicator, a thousand times weaker than asking them whether they would vote for the BJP with Namo as its undisputed leader.

Pranav · Post by **Pranav** » 17 Apr 2013 12:05

Sanku wrote:

That rediff web poll is not a survey in the first place. Just putting up a random web page for random people to click is not a survey, that's the least part of it. Read up on survey methods.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Survey_methodology

That rediff poll is time pass. Taking it seriously is hilarious.

When you have stopped rolling on the floor, perhaps you could ponder over the question about whether there have been any surveys at all, by any agency, over the past six months.

Sanku · Post by **Sanku** » 17 Apr 2013 12:13

Pranav wrote:
Sanku wrote: Which is still not the same as India being presidential election process. All it means are that the parties have a strongman at helm. Period. You cant spin X to mean Y.
What are you trying to prove by this strawman.

What I said is simple. People know who calls the shots in the party, and they decide to whether to vote for the party based on that.

Wrong. Just wrong.

People vote not for a gleat leadel but for local candidates. Local candidate selection determines the victory in as much measure as top leadership. Also all the equations of caste, local unit cohesion in vote mobilization etc count. They are not determined by great leader alone.

In any case how is it relevant to saying India is a presidential form of voting or not how?

It is better than drawing conclusions from thin air, at least one more degree of reliability.
It is a very very feeble indicator, a thousand times weaker than asking them whether they would vote for the BJP with Namo as its undisputed leader.

That question has not been asked.

The question that has been asked has been who do you want to see as next PM,

There is nothing in question about
1) Will you actually vote
2) Can you even vote
3) Will you vote BJP no matter the leader?
4) Will you vote not vote if no Modi?

Further, there is no indication the spread of the votes, that web poll targets only a very limited demographic. One does not know its spread.

I cant even believe some will take that time pass exercise with seriousness let alone even compare it to direct voting results present and available.

The rediff poll is junk in so far as any meaningful political insights can be gained.

Sanku · Post by **Sanku** » 17 Apr 2013 12:18

Pranav wrote: When you have stopped rolling on the floor, perhaps you could ponder over the question about whether there have been any surveys at all, by any agency, over the past six months.

There have been state polls. And all of them show business as usual.

Vipin_Upadhyay · Post by **Vipin_Upadhyay** » 17 Apr 2013 12:24

Sanku wrote:
BJP cant win on its own, NDA is needed to win. That is a fact. So kindly factor that in before you start taking a ideological stance.

Sanku ji

This line of thought is what currently being peddled by NiKu, assorted Congi startegists & so called tall leaders of BJP are buying this.

But NDA can also be formed post election. If BJP gets 190, why do you think that post poll alliance is not possible?? Why this sudden WKKish paki love with NDA parties at the expense of our own BJP?

In order to save vote bank of "NDA" parties by keeping NaMo at sidelines, BJP might end up loosing their own Hindu vote which will consolidate & polarize under NaMo.
Remember in Gujarat NaMo is elected time & time again due to his ability of polarizing majority Hindus decisively in favor of BJP so much so that Guj Congis have started changing themselves to appeal Hindus.

BJP has a chance under NaMo to once again go out with full force & consolidate their traditional Hindu votes, bring out those Hindu voters who have not voted before till polling booths. Get 190+ & all NDA parties will come singing NaMo tune to form government.

Only way to achieve this is declare clearly NaMo as BJPs first choice PM, give him all facilities BJP can afford to go on mega tour across casteist political land of UP, Bihar. one NaMo speech per week in front of big crowd & see the difference of OBC vote swing.

VikramS · Post by **VikramS** » 17 Apr 2013 12:26

Hain?
Clearly Modi appeals to the aspirational Middle Class.
He also will appeal to the OBC/Lower Classes.

And polarization can cut 2-ways too. If UPA feels that it can polarize the anti-NaMo vote, their actions can also polarize other votes.
Note that India is much more connected than 2004, or even 2009. Word travels.

And all the points you mentioned regarding the tactical aspect of running an election: Who do you think will motivate the cadres who do the leg-work? The 85 year old or Modi?

It is good to discuss different aspects and have multiple view points. But arguing for the sake of arguing is futile.