AP Politics and runup to 2014 General elections

gandharva · Post by **gandharva** » 17 Apr 2014 20:25

For BJP it's Time to bid goodbye to CBN. This alliance is useless as far as BJP is concerned. let him join which ever front he wants.

yvijay · Post by **yvijay** » 17 Apr 2014 20:38

^^ I have been saying this from the start. CBN is another Nitish kumar (or Patnaik). He'll dump BJP when it is convenient. Anyways, whichever party gets majority, they have to support BJP (NDA) at the center. It might be TRS or TDP, they have no choice. But by going alone, atleast BJP can establish beach head in SA. They are never going to grow, if they always need some alliance.

RajeshA · Post by **RajeshA** » 17 Apr 2014 21:05

BJP should simply give tickets now to all old Congress hands and honchos in Seemandhra who are willing to swear in the name of RSS. No more CBN.

nachiket · Post by **nachiket** » 17 Apr 2014 21:15

gandharva wrote:For BJP it's Time to bid goodbye to CBN. This alliance is useless as far as BJP is concerned. let him join which ever front he wants.

So what does it mean in election terms now? Can we expect SA and T to contribute zero seats to NDA kitty?

gandharva · Post by **gandharva** » 17 Apr 2014 21:21

nachiket wrote:
gandharva wrote:For BJP it's Time to bid goodbye to CBN. This alliance is useless as far as BJP is concerned. let him join which ever front he wants.
So what does it mean in election terms now? Can we expect SA and T to contribute zero seats to NDA kitty?

TRS will support whoever forms govt in DElhi and Jagan has said anyone but Congress in Delhi.

Vayutuvan · Post by **Vayutuvan** » 17 Apr 2014 21:51

So is "Jumping Jilani" the new term for the old expression "Aya rAm gayA rAm"? There used to be two pols with those names who changed several parties over a short period.

gpati · Post by **gpati** » 17 Apr 2014 21:56

Are BJP and TDP doing psy ops on opponents?

పొత్తుపై చర్చలు జరుగుతున్నాయి: చంద్రబాబు కన్ఫ్యూజన్ వద్దే వద్దు: ప్రకాశ్ జవదేకర్ మలుపులు తిరుగుతున్న ఎన్నికల పొత్తు!

YSRC, INC, and others are formulating their strategy based on BJP-TDP alliance assumption. They have to change their strategy and even candidates if there is no alliance. So, candidates are confused.

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 17 Apr 2014 22:18

Atri, You have been talking about Ghatotkach of modern times. I think it is the Andhra Pradesh. The division is the sacrifice to destroy Congress.

Muppalla · Post by **Muppalla** » 17 Apr 2014 22:29

nothing is yet over. gpati garu is right. Kishen Reddy just ironically (so many brick bats here

) said the alliance will continue in Telangana. I will write more later.

ShyamSP · Post by **ShyamSP** » 17 Apr 2014 22:29

matrimc wrote:So is "Jumping Jilani" the new term for the old expression "Aya rAm gayA rAm"? There used to be two pols with those names who changed several parties over a short period.

"Jump Jilani" is an old expression and in political sense same meaning as "Aya Ram gaya Ram". Jump may be Anglicized, but Jilani is Telugu meme.

"It may be related to -- Betrayal of two muslim commanders(Gilani Brothers) of Vijayanagara Army at key point in the battle. They jumped into opposition in the battle.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battle_of_Talikota"
https://answers.yahoo.com/question/inde ... 310AA4JBKd

There is comedy movie in the works with the same name.
http://www.cinedope.com/wp-content/uplo ... t-Look.jpg

ShyamSP · Post by **ShyamSP** » 17 Apr 2014 22:40

gpati wrote:Are BJP and TDP doing psy ops on opponents?

పొత్తుపై చర్చలు జరుగుతున్నాయి: చంద్రబాబు కన్ఫ్యూజన్ వద్దే వద్దు: ప్రకాశ్ జవదేకర్ మలుపులు తిరుగుతున్న ఎన్నికల పొత్తు!

YSRC, INC, and others are formulating their strategy based on BJP-TDP alliance assumption. They have to change their strategy and even candidates if there is no alliance. So, candidates are confused.

Likely. We'll only know after elections. At the same time there is suspicion BJP is playing games with TDP and TDP members are upset. Gali-Kishan-YSR triangular love is known issue but there may be backroom dealings with YSRCP in BJP putting weak candidates as per rumor channels.

TDP went with Noose approach in Rayalaseema+South Coastal taking a lot of Hala (those jump jalanis from INC). In response, YSRC went with 80% Reddy candidates in RS+South Coastal. This can upset other castes who see TDP as much more balanced.

In Circar, TDP announced Kapu and BC friendliness. In response YSRC went with most of Kapu candidates, esp in East Godavari.

The tug-of-war may be there, as YSRC is aggressive candidate nominations as decision is from 1-man High-command than TDP and BJP. so TDP may want create confusion to YSRC to reduce the tug-of-war.

Dasari · Post by **Dasari** » 17 Apr 2014 23:12

The media is completely divided along the party lines. The opposing media is going crazy with rumors as they see an opportunity to break the alliance. Until it comes officially either from TDP or BJP , nothing can be believed. I think they will resolve this at the last minute - the usual CBN style.

Muppalla · Post by **Muppalla** » 18 Apr 2014 03:16

Now TDP says talk of 'breaking' alliance with BJP misinterpreted

Barely a few hours after Telugu Desam Party chief Chandrababu Naidu said at a rally that his party would fight alone in Seema-Andhra, the TDP has gone into damage control mode and says the statement was misinterpreted.

The TDP leaders, while clarifying Naidu's statement, said he only meant that if the Bharatiya Janata Party puts up weak candidates he would fight the battle alone.

However, the BJP says that they will hold another round of talks and see to it that the alliance is through. BJP spokesperson Prakash Javedekar confirmed this by saying they would iron out the differences.

Endorsing reports that there was a "strain" in the alliance with BJP in Andhra Pradesh, Naidu earlier in the day publicly expressed displeasure over the selection of candidates by the saffron party for the May 7 elections.

He, however, did not say whether the alliance would continue or break.

"We have aligned with the BJP to see that Narendra Modi becomes the Prime Minister and rid the country of the corrupt and inept Congress rule. The alliance was also in the interests of our state. But somehow the BJP has fielded very weak candidates in some places which will only benefit the rival parties," Chandrababu lamented, addressing a public meeting at Parvathipuram in Vizianagaram district this evening.

He said corrupt forces like the YSR Congress should not be allowed to take advantage of the situation.

Chandrababu, however, did not talk further on the alliance. But leaders of the two parties were hopeful that there would be no threat to the alliance "at that stage" as the misgivings would be sorted out.

BJP AP unit president Kambhampati Haribabu told reporters in Visakhapatnam, where he is the Lok Sabha candidate, that some "small misgivings" were common between political parties.

The TDP has allotted 15 Assembly and five Lok Sabha seats to the BJP in Andhra Pradesh as part of the alliance but the national party itself reduced one seat each and announced its candidates.

The TDP leadership at the local level sent an alarm over the BJP's choice of candidates in particular assembly segments saying the nominees were "too weak".

The TDP is said to be unhappy over the BJP's choice of candidates in constituencies like Ichchapuram, Rajahmundry (Urban), Kaikaluru and Guntakal that were allotted to the latter as part of the alliance.

In a teleconference with his party leaders late last night, Chandrababu was said to have remarked that the candidates being fielded by the BJP for assembly were not even capable of getting elected as ward members (in local bodies).

"How will they win the assembly seats? It will only be detrimental to our alliance," Chandrababu reportedly remarked.

One of the reasons for the discord between the two parties is said to be the BJP's choice for Narsapur Lok Sabha seat.

The BJP fielded Gokaraju Ganga Raju for the seat, denying ticket to another industrialist K Raghurama Krishnam Raju who joined the party recently from the YSRC.

The TDP wanted Krishnam Raju as the alliance candidate as part of a political game plan to corner not only the YSRC but also Congress MP K V P Ramachandra Rao, a close relative of Raju.

Krishnam Raju filed four sets of nominations today, two each as TDP and BJP candidate, after talking to Chandrababu Naidu this morning. His wife Rama Devi also filed nominations as TDP and BJP candidate.

Kinjarapu Rammohan Naidu, son of former Union Minister K Yerran Naidu, who is the TDP candidate from Srikakulam Lok Sabha constituency, told Chandrababu that the BJP's nominee for Ichchapuram Assembly seat V Balakrishna stood no chance of winning.

"We are unnecessarily forgoing an Assembly seat which will have an impact on the parliamentary seat as well," Rammohan reportedly lamented.

Similar is the case in Rajahmundry (Urban), where the TDP denied ticket to its senior leader Gorantla Butchaiah Chowdary to accommodate the BJP.

BJP's candidate A Satyanarayana, according to TDP leaders, is considered to be very weak.

"We will be giving the seat to the rivals (read YSR Congress) on a platter," Gorantla, TDP's Rajahmundry Lok Sabha candidate M Murali Mohan reportedly told Chandrababu.

Interestingly, Gorantla today filed his nomination from Rajahmundry (Urban) as the TDP candidate, a move that is seen as a pressure tactic to force the BJP to change its candidate.

In Kaikaluru, sitting TDP MLA Jayamangala Venkata Ramana was made to "sacrifice" his seat in favour of BJP.

But the TDP cadre is said to be unhappy over the selection of K Srinivasa Rao by the BJP.

In Guntakal, there is trouble within the BJP as well over the nomination of Venkatramaiah as the candidate.

BJP cadre called Venkatramaiah an "outsider" who did not even have membership of the party.

They termed the decision to field him a "conspiracy" to scuttle the TDP-BJP alliance and tacitly help the YSRC.

kittigadu · Post by **kittigadu** » 18 Apr 2014 08:26

Now the fox is upto its tricks ! And we hear much foxy spin like Adani meeting JAgan, Gali-YSR-Kishen love triangle etc etc. Fact is that the fox is upto its backstabbing ways. Proof is that he waited for the close of nominations in Telengana, before beginning this game.

Yagnasri · Post by **Yagnasri** » 18 Apr 2014 10:28

Unfortunately Jagan has to be stopped and we are left with cbn who refuses to learn his place in modi world. He now thinks himself as equal to nm. That and his natural lack of long term vision and lack of ideological base is going to be a big problem for Telugu people.

RajeshA · Post by **RajeshA** » 18 Apr 2014 11:49

CBN, I think, can contribute to the betterment of Seemandhra and India, but, pardon the language, only if NaMo has CBN's balls in his hands and can squeeze them hard whenever CBN seems to be straying too much into tactical brilliance or secularism fever.

If NaMo wanted he could saffronize AP within two years and bring each and everybody to kneel.

What NaMo needs to do is ensure that TDP is finished in Telangana. That means winning as many seats as possible in Assembly there, giving support to Lok Satta Party where they are fighting and elsewhere allow TRS to win, thus letting TRS get majority. Next time TDP people would themselves jump to BJP or to some other party.

In Seemandhra, NaMo has to ensure that neither YSRCP nor TDP have a majority on their own and BJP can play king-maker. Perhaps BJP itself may not win many seats in Seemandhra Assembly. Even if Congress wins in Seemandhra, even that is okay, because basically a PM NaMo can put all their asses to fire through CBI, and force Congress MLAs to merge with BJP.

Secondly Jaganmohan Reddy should be thrown back into prison. Some other rival honcho in YSRCP should be made President of YSRCP and be made CM. Rest of YSRCP would support this as it would allow them to get some ministries and be in power.

Thirdly with CBN out of power both in Seemandhra and Center, NaMo should push for a coup in TDP itself, so that TDP sidelines CBN and instead chooses Daggubati Purandeswari to lead it. This way SA-BJP can then support TDP to come to power after say 18 months under a new leadership.

Jagan and CBN should simply be removed from political landscape in SA.

NaMo needs to have a CBI file on each and every politico in SA so that they can all be put on a leash.

Through this control NaMo should force all moneybags in SA to finance and support RSS activity in SA in a big way and to push out EJs.

In 5 years during the next elections, BJP would have enough support in SA to make a go for government there.

Dasari · Post by **Dasari** » 18 Apr 2014 12:02

Vizag constituency is crowded now as former Mayor of Vizag and Anakapalle MP, Sabbam Hari, is all set to file nomination for both Lok Sabha and assembly, representing the Jai Samaikyandhra party. This will be a very tough seat and nobody can predict the outcome. With non local issue becoming big among Vizagites, Sabbam Hari and to some extent Hari Babu has the edge. But Vijayamma of YSRCP is all set to spend Rs 100 crore. The information I have is that Sabbam Hari may be ready to support Hari Babu for the MP seat, if Haribabu Supports Sabbam for the Vizag North assembly. If that happens, no amount of money can save Vijayamma.

Hari Seldon · Post by **Hari Seldon** » 18 Apr 2014 13:10

>>India TV ‏@indiatvnews 30m
TDP asks BJP to contest 5 instead of 13 assembly seats, and contest 5 instead of 4 LS seats in Seemandhra, gives 3 pm deadline today.

Rony · Post by **Rony** » 18 Apr 2014 18:39

Frenemies

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 18 Apr 2014 20:37

Rony who are they?

Folks AP is in chaos. We are expecting normal behavior in a chaotic state. It has to settle down before normalcy is restored. EC has contributed to the chaos with the long poll schedule and defacto 7 regional elections for the Lok Sabha. The TDP-BJP kabuki is to fool Jagan.

manju · Post by **manju** » 18 Apr 2014 20:46

ramana wrote:Rony who are they?

The guy on left is Yesu Rajasekhar reddy and on rt is CB Naidu?

Vayutuvan · Post by **Vayutuvan** » 18 Apr 2014 20:49

Manju I think you are right. First I thought chiranjeevi and pawan Kalyan.

Rony · Post by **Rony** » 18 Apr 2014 21:36

Thats correct. It is Samuel.R. Reddy and Chandrababu Naidu

Rahul M · Post by **Rahul M** » 18 Apr 2014 21:44

iff modi comes to power in centre, the first priority should be to expand base in AP, TN and WB. together they account for >20% of LS seats.

hanumadu · Post by **hanumadu** » 18 Apr 2014 21:45

They worked together when they were both in congress. There were rumours that they were partners in some businesses even after CBN shifted to TDP.

SaiK · Post by **SaiK** » 18 Apr 2014 21:51

did mahul r sent a hidden message for uniting t-gana and andhra back to AP?

.

SI alone = 42+20+28+39 = 129 -> 23.7%

member_28502 · Post by **member_28502** » 18 Apr 2014 22:05

Both were Goondas of the first class

Muppalla · Post by **Muppalla** » 18 Apr 2014 22:28

Dasari wrote:Vizag constituency is crowded now as former Mayor of Vizag and Anakapalle MP, Sabbam Hari, is all set to file nomination for both Lok Sabha and assembly, representing the Jai Samaikyandhra party. This will be a very tough seat and nobody can predict the outcome. With non local issue becoming big among Vizagites, Sabbam Hari and to some extent Hari Babu has the edge. But Vijayamma of YSRCP is all set to spend Rs 100 crore. The information I have is that Sabbam Hari may be ready to support Hari Babu for the MP seat, if Haribabu Supports Sabbam for the Vizag North assembly. If that happens, no amount of money can save Vijayamma.

My hunch is that in the end Vijayamma will be defeated. That would be awesome.

Rony · Post by **Rony** » 18 Apr 2014 22:32

Nijalingappa wrote:Both were Goondas of the first class

Samuel Reddy is a factionist/Goonda for sure. CB Naidu is a cunning manipulator/backroom dealman type

Vayutuvan · Post by **Vayutuvan** » 18 Apr 2014 22:48

SaiK wrote:did mahul r sent a hidden message for uniting t-gana and andhra back to AP? .

How can that be Ts are Pakis

RamaY · Post by **RamaY** » 18 Apr 2014 22:50

matrimc wrote:
SaiK wrote:did mahul r sent a hidden message for uniting t-gana and andhra back to AP? .
How can that be Ts are Pakis

By kicking pakis on both sides into obscurity.

devesh · Post by **devesh** » 19 Apr 2014 00:14

hanumadu wrote:They worked together when they were both in congress. There were rumours that they were partners in some businesses even after CBN shifted to TDP.

hanumadu garu,

come on now!! it's only Kishan Reddy who is in a "love triangle" with YSR/YSJ/Gali-brothers. but CBN who once worked with YSR closely in INC is the "upholder of Telugu atma gauravam".

can't you tell the definitions by now? anyone who speaks against the SA elites is in "love triangle" with nefarious elements. but ppl like CBN who have a history of unreliability, backstabbing, and working with supposed "enemies" are all epitome of political "good sense".

Kishan Reddy is evil because he clearly sees that TDP in Telangana means the same old game of BJP subservience. if only Kishan Reddy were more "pliant" like Revanth, then he would be a "great T-vadi".

devesh · Post by **devesh** » 19 Apr 2014 02:10

I have a feeling that with BJP and TDP both being so indecisive about their alliance even unto the last days before voting day...the people might be confused about the actual existence of an alliance.

don't underestimate the power of 24/7 media constantly blasting news of BJP/TDP break-up. TV's and TV news have become very prominent in AP now. lots of viewership even in small villages and towns.

I feel like this will have its own effect in that .5-1% floating population, which can be very very crucial.

if it's a chankian move to confuse Jagan, it might turn out too clever by half. just my gut feeling...

RamaY · Post by **RamaY** » 19 Apr 2014 02:16

^^ that's a very good point Devesh garu!

Dasari · Post by **Dasari** » 19 Apr 2014 05:26

What a great disappointment for YRSCP and its coterie of media outlets that worked overtime to make the TDP and BJP alliance collapse. Now to the contrary both parties are talking about summit meeting between leaders of both parties on how to help each other and work as one unit. Compare this to what TV5 , Great Andhra, Sakshi who started writing articles about the alliance in past tense. I hope in the next few days Naidu and Modi come out and give even a stronger statement and in the process show the credibility of these media outlets and their master.

Muppalla · Post by **Muppalla** » 19 Apr 2014 05:30

There is really no indecisiveness once the nominations are over. Everywhere on the ground the situation is as below:

Tweet by N.Ramachander Rao

The reality is that they can't even split as the campaign was integrated a long time ago. All the rift is actually as simple as competition for tickets. One thing was sure and both INC and YSRC tried their best to stop this alliance.

Win and loss depends on how the people will think through as this time the state split is not an issue and anyone has to win on development issues. Off course the ambitions/insecurities of elites will be there as impacts.

Dasari · Post by **Dasari** » 19 Apr 2014 05:44

Muppalla wrote:
Dasari wrote:Vizag constituency is crowded now as former Mayor of Vizag and Anakapalle MP, Sabbam Hari, is all set to file nomination for both Lok Sabha and assembly, representing the Jai Samaikyandhra party. This will be a very tough seat and nobody can predict the outcome. With non local issue becoming big among Vizagites, Sabbam Hari and to some extent Hari Babu has the edge. But Vijayamma of YSRCP is all set to spend Rs 100 crore. The information I have is that Sabbam Hari may be ready to support Hari Babu for the MP seat, if Haribabu Supports Sabbam for the Vizag North assembly. If that happens, no amount of money can save Vijayamma.
My hunch is that in the end Vijayamma will be defeated. That would be awesome.

My information from the ground level is that there is no 'wave' like phenomena in AP for YSRCP as it existed 12 or 18 months ago. With time all that momentum is lost and being lost. The only 'wave' that is there is anti-congress wave which will wipe out congress. Now TDP and YSRCP are neck and neck, and the contest is back to the historical norm of battles with Cadre, Cash and Caste as weapons. TDP is ahead in cadre, while YSRCP has cash advantage. They are on equal footing on caste. The hope is that Modi's rally will tilt the balance towards TDP+BJP favor. A 3% swing will turn out be landslide win like how YSR beat CBN in the last two elections. So the chances of Haribabu wining are good a) if he can cut a deal with Sabbam Hari who is still a formidable force in Vizag city b) Modi rally in Vizag two weeks from now.

SaiK · Post by **SaiK** » 19 Apr 2014 05:51

Expect only the wave-front to get Modinomics working.. he may not be fair with all who did not vote him to power. It is not fair to ask equality after he becomes PM when AP stood against him during elections.

general speaking onlee

johneeG · Post by **johneeG** » 19 Apr 2014 07:32

Rony wrote: Samuel Reddy is a factionist/Goonda for sure. CB Naidu is a cunning manipulator/backroom dealman type

Exactly. And from atleast 2007, CBN and Yesu were locked in do-or-die kind of battle. So, talking about the supposed friendship of CBN with Yesu is nonsense.

As for CBN, he is more of a confused person without ground connection. Earlier, he couldn't even talk properly. After, he did many rallies, he is now able to give good speeches. But, even now, I think, he is still unable to understand people properly. And since he does not understand, he is confused. And because he is confused, he compromises. His alliances in 2009 is the best example in this regard. Kongis played him completely. I think regardless of what happens in this election, CBN should just create new leadership and take a backseat like Loh Purush. The strength of lotus here is RSS. RSS is able to create good cadre who can then in course of time become good leaders. This steady supply of leaders helps lotus. Good-cadre or good leader does not mean only administration capabilities, it also means understanding the history, culture and civilization of the Bhaarath. I think CBN does not know or understand history, culture and civilization of Thelugus or Bhaarath.

Yesu is just a factionist who got lucky(strictly speaking even CBN got lucky, but maybe everyone who gets power is just lucky). I think Yesu got the post because of Antonio's blessings due to X-ism. But, he seems to be a very corrupt and useless person with no good anywhere in him. No wonder he met such brutal end. CBN escaped similar fate very closely in same vicinity. I think that is the difference, CBN and Yesu are similar but CBN is better, so he survived by grace of God of Thirumala.

That raises the question: why did Gajan and Antonio fight in the first place? And what benefit did kongis get from division?

I think there has not been a satisfactory answer to these two questions till now. Maybe it was ego clash in Gajan and Antonio. Maybe both of them are empty vessels who are afraid of being exposed, so they try to compensate it with over-confidence apart from being totally corrupt.

But who gained from division? I think this division has not changed anyone's political fortunes.

I think KCR will not even perform well in this election, specially in local. I think people will vote for development issues because of high inflation, power-cuts and water-problems. I have always said that the separate T sentiment seems to over-rated and manufactured. Even those who supported KCR for separate T have no reason to support him anymore. As for kongis, I think only those who are completely unaffected by inflation, job loses, power-cuts and water-problems will vote for them. I think people in lotus think that they are going to be in driving seat once KCR is gone. They seem to think that they will have to compete with TDP from then on. TDP will be accused of being a coastal/seema party while lotus will be accused of being a north-Bhaarath party.

gpati · Post by **gpati** » 19 Apr 2014 07:46

johneeG wrote: CBN should just create new leadership and take a backseat like Loh Purush.

Johnee garu, CBN is creating secular-hindutva leadership.