Apologies for the very late reply, Stan.
Stan_Savljevic wrote:Prithwi, probing again. I can search, but would like your take. I have some clue on some questions, but not nuff to make me confident.
1) What is the position of the Dimasas in today's Assam? How do the Dimasas see future relations with the Ahoms, the Bodos, the Karbis, the Bengalis, etc.?
If we take into account all the Dimasas, then well, they like everybody else want to live in peace and harmony, and that feeling has been slowly creeping in since DHD & DHD(J) started turning towards Dimasas too, en masse'. The purpose, you know. Dima Hasao has a very fringe population of Ahoms, Bodos & Karbis. Amongst tribals, it is mostly comprised of Nagas, Hrankhols, Hmars, Kukis, Baiteis etc. Amongst non tribals, there is a large population of Bengalis, few Assamese, Nepalis, Biharis etc.
To be blunt, Bengalis are hated the most. Bengalis
usedto occupy higher Government positions because they are educated. But things are not the same now. Bengalis retiring from Govt. jobs move away to places like Silchar and Guwahati, or even Kolkata. The only Bengali population still there in Dima Hasao are the business community and people who still are into Govt. jobs. Basically the TINA factor. Compulsion. Bengalis from other parts of Assam seldom move in or take up a job transfer in Dima Hasao. Having said that, I would not generalize that everybody hate Bengalis. It's just not true.
Stan_Savljevic wrote:2) Is Barak Valley more or less an Islamized place? The AIUDF seems to be making bolder and bolder statements on they becoming the largest party in Assam. What gives them this confidence with ~30% (at the best case) vote share? Is it the fragmentation of vote share across other groups? Or is it the hopelessness of the corrupt machinery that is AGP and INC? Or is it the confidence that the NRC will never be updated? Or is it the belief that a Banga-assam is a closer reality than pax-Indica?
Yep. The population of illegal Bangladeshi migrants are alarming, add to it that they breed like rats. Hindus are concentrated in towns, whereas you go out of town and all you would see are those illegals.
Whatever you have assumed about AIUDF are true. One more point to add is the rising population of those illegals, which I have mentioned earlier. The more people you have, the more votes you have. Plus, AIUDF is also slowly eating up the Muslim vote bank of the INC, being seen gradually as the only savior of the Muslims.
As of now a Bangladeshi-Assam is not feasible, but not entirely impossible in the near future. Let me recall an incident that happened with my Uncle in a place called Sonai. A Muslim guy walks upto him and during a conversation retorts "Mr. XX, that was Jinnah Saab's mistake(partition), or else the whole of NE would have been part of Bangladesh." So, you can see the level of radicalization these guys bring from Bangladesh. Arseholes!
Stan_Savljevic wrote:3) Where does BJP fit in this picture? A decade back, the BJP was the top dog in Barak Valley. No longer the case.
BJP fits in the
almost empty parks where they held election rallies every 5 years, nothing more. And BJP was never a top dog, some MLAs yes, but never a force. They are the same as the Congress in Assam and in the Centre. Congress has a tight grip on the political scenario, because of it's secular image. BJP have yet to wake up, and then maybe smell the coffee.
In this issue, I would also like to bring in the Dima Hasao. How do Congress win even after being so corrupt? The Bengalis and the other non-tribals vote mostly for Congress because of the TINA factor. You vote for a regional party and for the next 5 years you live in fear & chaos.
Stan_Savljevic wrote:4) Is the demand for a separate state for Dimasas a bluff that can be called out? What is the minimum that will keep both the Nunisa and Garlosa factions "happy"? Already there are indications that Dilip Nunisa is agree-able to a much financial muscle enlarged autonomous council. With Jewel Garlosa in jail, he too will be coerced over time given that the NIA can run after him too.
First of all, why there has to be a State based on a language/tribe/because some Tom, D!ck & Harry wants? Let there be new states, but for the sake of better administration. And yes, the bluff can be called out. But to do that, you need the views of all the tribes there, and not of someone sitting on South Block making ridiculous policies. How many people of Barak Valley or Dima Hasao are consulted before policy formulations? The CM, an MP, maybe!
First the demand for an Autonomous District was raised. GoI accepted that. Now they want a separate state. Next, propped by the Chinese, there would be demands for Independence. And if that were to happen, it will happen all across the NE, by all the terrorist groups, in a co-ordinated move.
In a different defence forum I once made the
assumption that without Chinese help, there is no way NE militants would be able to survive. I also said, those terrorist camps in the NE can also be used as listening posts to gather intel about the IA's movements by the Chinese, during a war with India. A few days later, AT published what I had assumed, just a few days back.
The only way to deal with terrorists is to treat them like terrorists. Gorlosa and Nunisa fell off over money. Nothing can keep both of them happy. If we are to consider the overall majority of the people, the least GoI can do is list Dima Hasao as a disturbed area. Invoke AFSPA and then give the IA, Paramilitary forces a free hand and a specific time frame to get rid of this cancer. The moral & backbone of both the factions are at their lowest ebb. Hit them now, and hit them hard.
Stan_Savljevic wrote:5) Do aamchi people talk about PC Haldar or RS Pandey or Shambhu Singh, the primary interlocutors?
Frankly, I have heard about them for the first time, even though I had heard about interlocutors sometime back. It was not interesting enough for me to keep track. So you can assume what the general populace would know and then in turn talk about.
Stan_Savljevic wrote:6) What next after DHD? Are we looking at splinterist sub-groupings that evolve again into a behemoth? Who are the contenders who will fill in? This I ask because that is a given and when, not if.
DHD and the DHD(J) are 2 of the bigger groups in Dima Hasao (NSCM is the biggest). Their activities of extortion, killings have led many small groups come into being. There are small groups within the Kukis, Hmars, Hrangkhols who were formed to neutralize the atrocities of the DHD & DHD(J) on their people. I do not see any other Dimasa front after the DHDs, but cannot rule it away either.
However the Kukis, Hmars etc might get together and form a unified command, which then would be big (they are helped by the NSCM). They already have a cause and they are p!$$ed off. The cause - renaming of North Cachar Hills as Dima Hasao. The younger community have already started working together, holding rallies against the renaming of the district and against granting of statehood by the GoI.
Stan_Savljevic wrote:7) NDFB is an overt Christian front with cross-support from NSCN(IM) and NLFT. From what I read, DHD does nt seem like a religulous front, but more like a pan-Dimasa front. Do I read the tea leaves correct? Will the Dimasa front become religious nut-jobby (if not already) because it took the Bodos to polarize on religious lines no more than 10-15 years.
You are correct. However, I doubt the Dimasas would do something like that. Right now it's a battle for land and power, but who knows?