Q. How serious are reports of an impending American/NATO attack/strike inside Pakistan’s territories?
A. I have no idea if there will be such a strike, as I don’t work for the government or have a security clearance. But there is undeniable evidence of the presence of top Taliban and al-Qaeda leaders in Pakistan. The best evidence is that Pakistan has arrested some of them and usually can find another to arrest when the pressure gets too intense. I think that people in Punjab and Sindh might not be fully aware of the situation.
Q. If launched, what can such an attack be like?
A. I have no idea. In my view this is not a problem that can be solved by cross-border attacks.
Q. Many analysts have said that such an attack/strike will be counterproductive…
A. So far the only policy on cross-border strikes or operations that I know of is about targeting the top leaders of al-Qaeda. And everyone knows that a major attack that is too visible or lasts too long could damage our friends in Pakistan. I think that marginalising extremists and supporting democracy and development in Pakistan is a common interest of the US and Pakistan. We should find a way to pursue these goals together. But we also have partners in Afghanistan and the US’s partnership with Pakistan cannot be at their expense.
Q. If the presence of the top leadership of Taliban and al-Qaeda is not new, why is Kabul reacting so vehemently this time round – it has virtually suspended all diplomatic ties with Pakistan – and why is there so much noise in the US media, government and think-tanks about the need to do something?
A. The US actually never complained about Taliban sanctuaries in Pakistan for many years. I doubt you could find any examples before 2004 and even then you will find only statements by Zalmay Khalilzad (the then US envoy in Kabul). The Bush administration was placing all its attention on Iraq and did not even conduct any surveillance of what the Taliban were doing in Quetta and Waziristan. But in the last two years, especially since the North Waziristan agreement in 2006, the attacks and infiltrations from across the border (Durand Line) has greatly increased. Of course there is always a seasonal increase, so we do not compare this month with last month. When I study the data I compare a week in 2008 with the same week in 2007, 2006, etc. The data clearly show an increase.
And it is not just an increase in guerrilla activity. I know that the tribes on the India/Pakistan side of the Durand Line have always fought in civil wars in Afghanistan – they did so in 1928-29 and in 1978-1992. But today very sophisticated terrorist attacks are being planned, organised and funded in Federally Administered Tribal Areas (Fata). The attack on the Indian embassy in Kabul involved very sophisticated explosives that have never been used by mujahideen or Taliban, and the Taliban denied being responsible. The attack on President Hamid Karzai in April also involved very sophisticated planning and financing. The records of the mobile phones of those involved show they were constantly telephoning to Pakistan. There is a lot more evidence that very sophisticated terrorist acts are being organised in camps in Fata. By the way, the UN conducted a study of suicide bombings in Afghanistan and concluded that they were organised and planned in Fata (
http://www.unama-afg.org/docs/_UNDocs/U ... 202007.pdf.) Pakistan’s only response was for its UN representative to demand that the report be taken off the UN website. Pakistan is not just opposing the Northern Alliance or the US – it is standing alone against the UN and NATO.
The situation in Afghanistan is indeed much more urgent. That is not only because of the bases of Taliban and al-Qaeda in Pakistan. It is also because of a very poor policy of the Bush administration and poor performance of the Afghan government. But the situation in Pakistan makes it much more difficult.
Q. Is the focus shifting to Afghanistan because there is a general belief that the war in Afghanistan could have been won with the right strategy because it was a ‘just’ war but it did not get the attention because of the war in Iraq which was strictly legally speaking “illegal”?
A. Public opinion surveys in the US show that a substantial majority believes that the war in Iraq was a mistake. They believe that the military operation in Afghanistan was not only justified but necessary because we were attacked from there. But you know it is not only the US who says this. It is the position of the UN Security Council. It is the position of the Government of Pakistan.
I can’t speak for others, but I’ll give you my view. The attack on Iraq was the greatest gift that President Bush gave to Osama Bin Laden. The US said it attacked the Taliban because they harboured al-Qaeda, which attacked the US. Iraq had nothing to do with that attack. So al-Qaeda could argue, “You see? It had nothing to do with ‘terrorism’. It is a war against Islam and Muslims.”
After 9/11, I thought we should support an amnesty for most of the Taliban, start a big reconstruction programme in Afghanistan, work with Afghanistan and Pakistan to resolve differences over the border, continue cooperation with Iran in Afghanistan, and intensify US efforts to address legitimate concerns of the Muslims, such as the situation in Palestine. Instead the Bush administration pretty much did the opposite. I don’t know what future US policy will be, but I am hoping to move it in this direction.
Q. Are Pakistan-based Taliban the only problem in Afghanistan? There are reports that some other foreign and local militants are also fighting in central and eastern Afghanistan…
A. Pakistan-based Taliban are very far from being the only problem in Afghanistan. But the groups you mention are also based in Pakistan. Jalaluddin Haqqani and his son Sirajuddin are in North Waziristan, close to Miran Shah. Hikmatyar still has the same office in Shamshattu camp near Peshawar. All of these groups are based in Pakistan.
But there are a lot of other problems in Afghanistan. The former Interior Minister of Afghanistan, Ali Ahmad Jalali, calls Afghanistan a “theme park of problems.” Afghanistan is one of the five poorest countries in the world, and all the other very poor countries are the poorest countries in Africa. It has the weakest government in the world. It is more dependent on narcotics and illegal activity than any other country in the world. It is politically impossible for its government to recognise its longest and most important border. It has more weapons per capita and more amputees per capita and a lower female literacy rate than any other country. It has lots of ethnic issues and not enough water. It is being “assisted” by a coalition of countries that have very little capacity to operate in Afghanistan or understand what they are doing there. I could go on.
Eliminating the centres in Pakistan where the war in Afghanistan is planned and funded and where many fighters are recruited would not solve all of Afghanistan’s problems or even end the war. There will be armed conflict over many issues for a long time (if only because unemployment is so high). But as long as the war is based outside of Afghanistan, it is almost impossible to address these other problems inside Afghanistan.
Let me ask a question: Are Pakistan-based Taliban a problem only for Afghanistan? When I was in Peshawar, the city was surrounded on three sides. The militants blew up the power grid so that the city lost a third of its electricity. People were being kidnapped and assassinated in broad daylight in Peshawar. People from other cities had even worse stories. A student from Mardan told me that co-called “Taliban” (including Chechens and Uzbeks) threatened to blow up the school his sister was attending if the girls didn’t wear the burqa instead of her own hijab. I met a group of senior officials from Fata and NWFP who said that there was a full-blown insurgency in NWFP (not just in Fata), and that the military seemed not to be doing anything about it.
Q. In Pakistan, the general public as well as analysts and media personnel are wary that Afghanistan is becoming a staging ground for anti-Pakistan conspiracies which bring together the Afghan government, India and the US in a bid to “break up Pakistan”. Do you think the US should do something to counter this impression?
A. I know people believe this. This is the same kind of thinking that led Pakistan to disaster in 1972. Nobody wants to repeat that. Pakistan is a very big country with a growing economy, nuclear weapons, and a government that is a big participant in the international community. Pakistan is the largest contributor of troops to UN peacekeeping operations. If there is any élite family in Pakistan that does not have relatives in the US, I have never met them. Nobody wants to break up such a country. I tried to explain to officials in Washington that people in Pakistan think there is a conspiracy to break up Pakistan, and I had a hard time getting them to take it seriously. They thought it was a joke.
But I would like to ask: where was the anti-Pakistan conspiracy in 1970-72? It was right inside Pakistan, in the high command of the Army and among the top politicians. That’s what led to the break-up of the country. If there is a conspiracy in Pakistan today, it is taking place in the same places. It’s up to the people of Pakistan to save their country.
I understand that many people in Pakistan are concerned about Indian activities in Afghanistan. In my writings I have pointed this out many times and argued that the US and Afghan government should address these concerns. As far as I can tell, the US government does not have independent information to show whether Pakistan’s charges are true. We should take them seriously and try to assure that no activity in Afghanistan threatens the unity or integrity of Pakistan. That is a legitimate interest of Pakistan. But Pakistan cannot protect its legitimate interest by demanding to exercise a veto over who can be in the government of Afghanistan.
Q. There has been a lot of talking about winning hearts and minds since 9/11. Do you think the US and NATO have done enough to win the hearts and minds in Afghanistan?
A. As I said, the Bush policy in Afghanistan (and elsewhere) has been very ineffective and harmful. Killing civilians (and house searches, torture, detention in Guantanamo and Bagram, and many other things) are wrong, in some cases criminal, and counter-productive. This has resulted in a turn of public opinion in Afghanistan against the international presence especially in the areas directly affected by fighting. We did not do enough to develop the country and pursue all the other positive policies I mentioned above. Right now most Afghans still feel they need foreign troops to prevent a civil war and to keep their neighbours (above all, Pakistan) from trying to control their country, but nobody likes to have foreign troops in their country.
Q. What can be a strategy for winning hearts and minds in Pakistan’s tribal areas?
A. I think that the current government of Pakistan and that of the NWFP have stated the right policy: integrate the tribal agencies into the mainstream of Pakistan. The US, NATO, the European Union and even the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation should support this goal. But it is very difficult. It cannot be accomplished just by passing a law to abolish the Frontier Crimes Regulations. It requires a well worked out strategy involving politics, economics, and security. The Awami National Party says the first step is extending the Political Parties Act to Fata. Then the government will have to figure out how to implement that. But I think it will be easier to get the support of the people of Fata for their right to participate in elections to local government bodies than for them to help George Bush with his war on terror. This would involve a lot of complicated changes in the way the maliks relate to the administration, how the economy is run, and many other things. But the military keeps proposing the revival of tribal system so FCR can work properly cannot possibly succeed. The tribal system has been weakened too much. Of course the Taliban and al-Qaeda have assassinated hundreds of tribal elders (this does not seem to upset people in the rest of Pakistan as much as when people are killed by American bombs), but the problem is much deeper.
The US, Saudi Arabia, and the government of Pakistan spent billions of dollars there creating an institutional base for exporting the so-called “jihad.” (I will let Muslims decide if it is really jihad to do what they are doing in Afghanistan.) Lots more money came in from remittances, trade (not only drugs), and contributions to extremist armed militants from the Persian Gulf countries. So (with all this money available to Islamic militants) owning a lot of land or animals and coming from a prominent family is not as important as it used to be (in Fata). Nothing will change this. The new situation requires political reforms in Fata. These reforms will benefit the people of the area, including most of the local people who are now with the militants. They are not the enemies of the US or Pakistan or Afghanistan or anyone else who does not attack them, and it is foolish to make them into enemies instead of partners. The same is true, by the way, of most of the people fighting against the government in Afghanistan. I knew some of the Taliban leaders. Of course we had very different world views, but they were not interested in attacking the US. They opposed US foreign policy but they didn’t think that killing thousands of Americans was the way to change it. We need a political solution in both Pakistan and Afghanistan.
But that does not mean doing the peace deals that the Pakistani military is making in Fata. By the way, these deals are made by the military and not the civilian government. The civilian government has no authority in Fata as far as I know. The political agents answer to the governor of NWFP, who is appointed by the president, not the Prime Minister. I met the governor of NWFP in May. He is totally opposed to the elected government’s programme of integrating Fata into mainstream Pakistan. But so far the elected government has been a huge disappointment. They have no strategy for confronting this huge crisis in Pakistan. They are acting as if they want to prove that the military is right when it says that democracy can’t work in Pakistan, because the politicians are irresponsible and corrupt. I know there are a lot of very dedicated good people in politics in Pakistan, in all parties. But the leadership of both the Pakistan People’s Party and the Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz do not seem to be confronting the major issues of the country, including the one we are discussing. I think the ANP is doing what it can in NWFP, but its power is limited. An effective democratic government is the best partner and friend for the US in Pakistan and the region. We have to make that partnership work. - Conducted via email by Muhammad Badar Alam