Global Economy

Atish · Post by **Atish** » 03 Oct 2008 20:30

This a meaningless statement. Money should be lent to the highest return for the requisite amount of risk. Throughout history the more prosperous have had cheaper and better access to credit. The opposite somehow sounds like a credible idea, but "the rich should be lending to poor in normal circumstances" is a nonsensical idea. Nor is it original, PIMCO has been saying it for a while(Bill Gross and Mc Cullough), but being bond traders they have an incentive in saying these things.

And nobody comes with better credentials than Bill Gross, so when I say its horse****, I am not going by the source but the argument. I stopped listening to Bill Gross too btw. Events will prove me right and these people wrong, the credit patterns will persist.

Cheers.
Atish.

John Snow · Post by **John Snow** » 03 Oct 2008 21:51

The opposite somehow sounds like a credible idea, but "the rich should be lending to poor in normal circumstances" is a nonsensical idea.

Atish Ji said.

Forgive and chide me If I ask
If the rich do not lend to poor but only to super rich will that lend to sustainable economics?

"The safest way to double your money is to fold it over and put it in your pocket."
- Kin Hubbard

Bade · Post by **Bade** » 03 Oct 2008 21:59

What is meant is that "rich do not have to lend to the poor, since the poor do not have any product or service which the rich value", which is not always true. The definition of rich or poor is again only relative.

John Snow · Post by **John Snow** » 03 Oct 2008 22:19

Bade wrote:What is meant is that "rich do not have to lend to the poor, since the poor do not have any product or service which the rich value", which is not always true. The definition of rich or poor is again only relative.

The correct way to say is

“Rich do have to lend to the poor, since the poor do have Many a product or service which the rich always value, which is always true”

The poor supply the rich with
Labor (services)
Goods ( Handi crafts, cottage industry products, handlooms, farm products etc).

The rate of return on lending to poor far far exceeds the ROI in lending to rich, and also it is inherently well diversified for risk considerations.

"Money is better than poverty, if only for financial reasons."
- Woody Allen

SwamyG · Post by **SwamyG** » 03 Oct 2008 22:21

I simply can not wrap my head around what you are saying, and you keep citing history. Throughout history money lenders have been lending money to the poor and making profits. I am not saying it is good or bad, but have they not been doing it?

So how did the prosperous through out history become prosperous? Some would have inherited wealth, but others would have borrowed to invest in business and grow, right?

And why is it a nonsensical idea?

John Snow · Post by **John Snow** » 03 Oct 2008 22:30

Throughout history money lenders have been lending money to the poor and making profits.

AAh I had a tubelight moment and I recall from my Sunday school days from 1960s that a whole new religion was started as protest against the money changers and money lenders and its called, Christainity

Read here and note the reference to Annas ( 16 Annas was 1 rupee) and money lending to the poor and profits derived therein.

"Excess(es) of profit always lends to the rise of a Prophet"

Spinster

http://www.bible-history.com/gentile_co ... Temple.htm

putnanja · Post by **putnanja** » 03 Oct 2008 22:51

Bankers worried over US move on bank assets

Bankers in India are worried over the proposal by the US to suspend rules that require banks to value assets at market rates. Bankers feel that this could push the global financial system into a deeper credit freeze and as a semblance of stability brought about by the measure would only be an illusion.

Any proposal that allows banks the freedom to not disclose the true and correct picture of their financial condition could further dent the already shaken confidence of the global financial system, bankers said.

The proposal is one of the inducements included in the $700 billion rescue package. It reiterates the authority of the regulators to suspend the asset valuation regulation.

Arun Kaul, head of treasury, Punjab National Bank, the country’s third largest bank, said the financial markets worldwide will not get the true and correct financial status of banks in the US if these financial services providers are not required to value their assets at the prevailing market price.

The rationale for introducing the mark-to-market norm was to bring in transparency in assessing the health of a bank, at any particular point in time. The norm requires banks and companies to assess their assets and report losses if their market values are lower.

The American Bankers’ Association, companies and lawmakers have urged the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), the equities market regulator, to suspend or ease the valuation rule.

“One will not be able to assess the real health of a bank at a given point (if the prudential valuation norm is suspended),” said Bimal Jalan, former governor of the Reserve Bank of India and a nominated member of the Rajya Sabha.

“It is a retrograde step. The US is going back to olden times at a time when accounting has progressed in modern times. The market must know the true and correct state of financial health of banks,” Kaul said.

Inability of regulators to ensure banks made disclosures led to the shock collapse of entities like Lehman Brothers. It had assets of $639 billion against reported credit losses and asset writedowns of just $13 billion before the world got to know it had collapsed.

Neshant · Post by **Neshant** » 03 Oct 2008 22:57

India should not emulate the US model where the govt sets the interest rates. Rather, the market should set interest rates.

Its the only way to avoid these speculative bubbles.

John Snow · Post by **John Snow** » 03 Oct 2008 23:00

Bankers in India are worried over the proposal by the US to suspend rules that require banks to value assets at market rates. Bankers feel that this could push the global financial system into a deeper credit freeze and as a semblance of stability brought about by the measure would only be an illusion.

Any proposal that allows banks the freedom to not disclose the true and correct picture of their financial condition could further dent the already shaken confidence of the global financial system, bankers said.

That brings us to the new rule called

GAP IN GAPP

svinayak · Post by **svinayak** » 03 Oct 2008 23:24

John Snow wrote: Bankers in India are worried over the proposal by the US to suspend rules that require banks to value assets at market rates. Bankers feel that this could push the global financial system into a deeper credit freeze and as a semblance of stability brought about by the measure would only be an illusion.

Any proposal that allows banks the freedom to not disclose the true and correct picture of their financial condition could further dent the already shaken confidence of the global financial system, bankers said.

They want to isolate western financial banks from the rest of the world and create a tier system for global trading system.
Indian elite will be fools if they think that they will get things free

vishwakarmaa · Post by **vishwakarmaa** » 04 Oct 2008 00:29

Atish wrote:MR Venkatesh is a simplistic man. A lot of what he says is what people want to believe. I stopped watching when he came up with the silly idea that "rich people should lend to poor people". This is an idea that sounds intuitively correct, but has noi real rational or historical basis. If assumptions are flawed, I am not interested in theories.

Atish.

vishwakarmaa · Post by **vishwakarmaa** » 04 Oct 2008 00:59

RaviBg wrote:Bankers worried over US move on bank assets

The American Bankers’ Association, companies and lawmakers have urged the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), the equities market regulator, to suspend or ease the valuation rule.

Inability of regulators to ensure banks made disclosures led to the shock collapse of entities like Lehman Brothers. It had assets of $639 billion against reported credit losses and asset writedowns of just $13 billion before the world got to know it had collapsed.

In other words, Harvard and Stanford graduated experts and so called innovators are now saying - "Please keep us out of transparency rules but, apply it on the world outside USA."

Now, I even doubt about whats real GDP of USA?

I guess its around 6 Trillion dollars.

John Snow · Post by **John Snow** » 04 Oct 2008 01:10

boss log the real state is rotten and the free world leader does not inform its own citizens of the rott that has started at head (of the fish). Yesterday Sarah Palin defined the moderator and doleup Bull S$%$ ok Moose Shi%T and people and pundits are goin ha ha wow etc.

Look at this

US can not lecture on Human Rights: Gitmo
US can not lecture on Freedom & Liberty:Annulled Habeas Corpus
US can not lecture on Free Market economy: Current Bail out
US can not lecture on Fiscal deciplie: Huge deficits
US can not lecture on free press: The revelation of USG paid Think Tankers masquerading as free thinking SMEs
etc etc

Kakkaji · Post by **Kakkaji** » 04 Oct 2008 01:55

Ek Anaar, Do Beemaar

Things are getting interesting:

Wells, Citi square off in Wachovia bid

Hours after Wells Fargo unveiled plans to buy Wachovia for $15B, Citigroup, which agreed to buy Wachovia assets Monday, demands firms terminate deal.

NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- Wachovia and Wells Fargo unveiled plans to merge Friday, just days after Citigroup said it would acquire Wachovia's banking assets, sparking what could be an ugly takeover fight for the Charlotte, N.C.-based bank.

Just hours after the tie-up became public, Citigroup (C, Fortune 500) pressed the two firms to abandon their plans, arguing that it had entered into an exclusivity agreement with Wachovia.

SK Mody · Post by **SK Mody** » 04 Oct 2008 02:14

A detailed timeline of the credit crisis.

A shorter version.

SK Mody · Post by **SK Mody** » 04 Oct 2008 04:10

Some articles from the same author - opposing the Paulson plan advocated by Warren Buffet in the Video earlier.

What Should a Banking Crisis Bill Really Look Like?

Paulson's Plan

The U.S. Banking System is Effectively Insolvent

Seven Things Congress's New Plan Should Have
------------

Why You Should Hate the Treasury Bailout Proposal

SK Mody · Post by **SK Mody** » 04 Oct 2008 04:21

Is the State of California bankrupt?
Arnold Schwarzenegger's letter

Congress passes the bailout bill.

SK Mody · Post by **SK Mody** » 04 Oct 2008 05:27

Sir Henry Paulson

svinayak · Post by **svinayak** » 04 Oct 2008 20:23

http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/money/ ... 852633.ece

India and China

Ananth · Post by **Ananth** » 04 Oct 2008 20:56

http://chronicle.com/temp/reprint.php?i ... 4hy9z83x18

In the end, the Panic of 1873 demonstrated that the center of gravity for the world's credit had shifted west — from Central Europe toward the United States. The current panic suggests a further shift — from the United States to China and India. Beyond that I would not hazard a guess. I still have microfilm to read.

svinayak · Post by **svinayak** » 04 Oct 2008 20:57

http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid ... 1279&hl=en

svinayak · Post by **svinayak** » 04 Oct 2008 22:31

Ananth wrote:http://chronicle.com/temp/reprint.php?i ... 4hy9z83x18
In the end, the Panic of 1873 demonstrated that the center of gravity for the world's credit had shifted west — from Central Europe toward the United States. The current panic suggests a further shift — from the United States to China and India. Beyond that I would not hazard a guess. I still have microfilm to read.

The post-panic winners, even after the bailout, might be those firms — financial and otherwise — that have substantial cash reserves. A widespread consolidation of industries may be on the horizon, along with a nationalistic response of high tariff barriers, a decline in international trade, and scapegoating of immigrant competitors for scarce jobs. The failure in July of the World Trade Organization talks begun in Doha seven years ago suggests a new wave of protectionism may be on the way.

svinayak · Post by **svinayak** » 05 Oct 2008 00:06

More severe recession now forecast by Goldman Sachs
By Rex Nutting
Last update: 7:03 p.m. EDT Oct. 3, 2008

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- The U.S. recession will be "significantly deeper" than they previously thought, Goldman Sachs economists predicted Friday in a research note. The economy will probably show no growth at all between the middle of 2008 and the middle of 2009, with gross domestic product falling 2% this quarter and 1% next, they said. Two other quarters will show 0% GDP growth. The unemployment rate will likely rise to 8% by the end of next year from 6.1% currently. "We now also see at least another 100 basis points of monetary easing from the Federal Reserve, aggressive measures to stabilize the money markets, and a possible further easing of fiscal policy under a new administration," wrote Jan Hatzius and his team of economists.

Neshant · Post by **Neshant** » 05 Oct 2008 02:47

Goldman sachs economists could not even predict their own company's economic ruin. Their predictions are worthless.

Neshant · Post by **Neshant** » 05 Oct 2008 04:17

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GqIFoBXG ... =rec-fresh

Paul · Post by **Paul** » 05 Oct 2008 04:40

BRFite

Joined: 01 Jan 1970 12:00 am
Posts: 488 Goldman sachs economists could not even predict their own company's economic ruin. Their predictions are worthless.

They may know but prefer not to broadcast it as it could lead to the company's shares getting cased out. This is why Lehmann Bros CEO reportedly cashed out $490Million in stock while the company's future was heading for the toilet.

svinayak · Post by **svinayak** » 05 Oct 2008 05:41

- Everyone knows the dollar will basically collapse. This is just a way for all the connected bankers around the world to transfer all their bad loans into dollars. The dollar will collapse anyway and those bad loans will be gone. Too bad we couldn't have spent that money on infrastructure or something before the dollar collapsed, but then again people get the govt they deserve. At this point all you can do is buy silver, etc and watch it happen.

sanjaykumar · Post by **sanjaykumar** » 05 Oct 2008 06:59

But what about China's $1.8 trillion dollar foreign reserve?

SwamyG · Post by **SwamyG** » 05 Oct 2008 07:08

Acharya wrote:- Everyone knows the dollar will basically collapse. This is just a way for all the connected bankers around the world to transfer all their bad loans into dollars. The dollar will collapse anyway and those bad loans will be gone. Too bad we couldn't have spent that money on infrastructure or something before the dollar collapsed, but then again people get the govt they deserve. At this point all you can do is buy silver, etc and watch it happen.

US Dollar Doomed as Credit Crisis Turning into a Currency Crisis

The problem with many predictions is that the doom and gloom of American empire collapsing or dollar losing value has been said so many times - it is like cyclical or seasonal. That is one reason why certain folks would not take such analysis seriously. Time will tell.

Neshant · Post by **Neshant** » 05 Oct 2008 07:16

> At this point all you can do is buy silver, etc and watch it happen.

While gold has at least held its own, silver has been tanking. Nothing in the market is making sense anymore. With this bailout and fears of recession/depression, one would thing the prices of these two would be through the roof. Instead they have come down.

Are there a ton of margin calls rolling through the system causing everyone to liquidate precious metals or is my understanding of economics flawed.

vina · Post by **vina** » 05 Oct 2008 09:47

Very zimble onree .. Didn't ol' Vina pass a fatwa on getting out of commodities ?. Is it so difficult to realize that there is a commodity bubble , just like the real estate bubble was and that now that commodity bubble is deflating ? .

The commoditiy bubble deflating is actually a good thing. That bubble was highly inflationary to the world economy. If anyone told you that markets are "rational", that social "scientists" and economists can actually make any sense at all about the stochasticity and randomness of the event, even though they apply statistical methods from math and since they use statistics, their mumbo jumo becomes "scientific" (oh yeah.. the infamous linear regression model in any thing and everything in econometrics and the social "sciences" from how much butter you would use in a year to how many toilets you would require, how much "welfare" you will require.. ), then you need to wake up and smell the coffee..

I chuckle every time when some "economist" or "strategist" from some bank or some institution comes on TV and makes prediction for some price or some such thing for a 1, 5, 10, 30 year horizon!. Why , those same guys will not be able to make any actioable prediction with any degree of certainty on the next 1 month .. You are better off by going to astrologer and asking for him to pick any price out of a range or get some monkey to throw darts to pick!.

Paul · Post by **Paul** » 05 Oct 2008 11:16

Best thing is to convert dollars to rupees and invest in Fixed deposits in nationalized banks.

However CD rates in the US are creeping up slowly. It may be as high as 5% for a six month term by early 2009.

Neshant · Post by **Neshant** » 05 Oct 2008 11:46

The bigger fear is what the value of the dollar is going to be in 6 months time or the rupee for that matter.

Gold is not a commodity like wheat or soya beans where one can easily ramp up supply. All things being equal, I'd sooner trust gold as a storehouse of wealth than the blizzard of paper money being created at the stoke of a pen. I'm sure the long term macro economic trend will bare this out.

svinayak · Post by **svinayak** » 05 Oct 2008 11:49

Neshant wrote:The bigger fear is what the value of the dollar is going to be in 6 months time or the rupee for that matter.

Gold is not a commodity like wheat or soya beans where one can easily ramp up supply. All things being equal, I'd sooner trust gold as a storehouse of wealth than the blizzard of paper money being created at the stoke of a pen. I'm sure the long term macro economic trend will bare this out.

Land is also another investment - but not property

Land is going to be premium

Vipul · Post by **Vipul** » 05 Oct 2008 17:00

Laxmi Mittal heads a list of ten super-rich losers.

NRI steel tycoon Lakshmi Mittal has lost 16.6 billion pounds in the global credit crunch owing to plummeting stock markets in the last four months, media reports said here today.

The 58-year-old Mittal heads a list of ten super-rich losers who together have seen their share portfolios shrink by about 23 billion pounds from their peaks, The Sunday Times claimed.

Another NRI entrepreneur Anil Agarwal, who built up his metals empire, has seen his stock plummet by 2.7 billion pounds.

The height of Mittal s losses dwarfs those of others in the list of top 10 losers, which include Mike Ashley, the beleaguered owner of Newcastle United football club and the retailer Sports Direct. Mittal has seen his family s stake in ArcelorMittal, the steel conglomerate, fall from 33.24 billion pounds on June 4 this year to 16.63 billion pounds at the close of Friday s markets. The loss is equivalent to 137 million pounds a day or nearly 6 million pounds an hour. The credit crunch losses were established by comparing the value of shareholdings around the world held by them at their peak with the value at the close of markets last Friday.

Raj · Post by **Raj** » 06 Oct 2008 05:48

Acharya wrote:- Everyone knows the dollar will basically collapse. This is just a way for all the connected bankers around the world to transfer all their bad loans into dollars. The dollar will collapse anyway and those bad loans will be gone. Too bad we couldn't have spent that money on infrastructure or something before the dollar collapsed, but then again people get the govt they deserve. At this point all you can do is buy silver, etc and watch it happen.

From Neshant's link http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GqIFoBXG ... =rec-fresh

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Great video again. Here's my take - everyone knows the dollar will basically collapse. This is just a way for all the connected bankers around the world to transfer all their bad loans into dollars. The dollar will collapse anyway and those bad loans will be gone. Too bad we couldn't have spent that money on infrastructure or something before the dollar collapsed, but then again people get the govt they deserve. At this point all you can do is buy silver, etc and watch it happen.

Bade · Post by **Bade** » 06 Oct 2008 19:24

Dubai feels credit crisis pinch

The shrinkage will be more severe if the financial crisis worsens in the West. Property prices and rents, which have remained steady until now, are widely expected to start dropping soon. At the same time, investor confidence has been harmed by a long string of high-level corporate scandals, jeopardising Dubai’s long-term ambition of becoming a regional financial capital.

“Plenty of people are worried,” said Gilbert Bazi, 25, a real estate broker from Lebanon who moved here a year ago. “They are waiting to see if what happened in the United States will happen here.”

When he first arrived, Bazi said, making money was almost absurdly easy. “Iranians, Russians, Europeans — everybody was buying,” he said. “I didn’t have to call people; they were calling me.” Now, Bazi stalks the lobbies of hotels, trying to find clients.

Another alternate safe haven to Swiss banks for Middle Easterners and Russian wealthy in jeopardy too...

Vipul · Post by **Vipul** » 06 Oct 2008 20:09

Indian American to oversee $700bn bailout.

US Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson is expected to appoint Neel Kashkari as the interim head for its new Office of Financial Stability to oversee the $700-billion bailout programme, a media report said.

Indian origin Kashkari, a Treasury assistant secretary for international affairs, is the key adviser on whom Paulson has come to rely on during the financial crisis, The Wall Street Journal reported.

Paulson is now seeking Kashkari's help to oversee Treasury's $700-billion programme to buy distressed assets from financial institutions, the report said.

The position is interim and pending for the Senate confirmation. It is unlikely the Senate would take a call on the matter before the November elections, the report added.

Kashkari, who was one of the originator of the bailout plan, was part of the Treasury team that negotiated the asset-repurchase programme with Congress. Now, he would oversee some key decisions on how the rescue programme would operate.

Congress has given Treasury the authority to start buying assets, but choices like which asset managers to hire, which securities to purchase and how, still remain, the report said.

Kashkari originally trained as an aerospace engineer and worked on developing technology for NASA before earning an MBA at the University of Pennsylvania. The former Goldman Sachs Group Inc banker spent much of his tenure at Treasury helping Paulson tackle the fallout of the housing meltdown.

Treasury is trying to get the bailout programme running as quickly as possible. It is expected to begin soliciting bids from asset managers this week, the report stated.

The department also plans to hire several managers, with expertise in the types of securities the government would likely buy, mainly mortgage-backed securities and residential mortgages, it added.

svinayak · Post by **svinayak** » 06 Oct 2008 21:17

Dow industrials plunge 500 amid global sell-off
The Associated Press - 52 minutes ago
NEW YORK (AP) — Wall Street tumbled again Monday, joining a sell-off around the world as fears grew that the financial crisis will cascade through economies ...

Dow Jones falls below 10000 as global markets melt
Telegraph.co.uk, United Kingdom - 36 minutes ago
US stock markets slumped sharply with the Dow Jones falling through the psychologically important 10000 mark for the first time since October 2004 amid ...

Dow Jones Drops Below 10000 Mark
Sky News, UK - 1 hour ago
Use the drop down menu below to filter stories and videos the way you want - when you want it! The Dow Jones industrial average of leading US shares has ...

Dow Jones dips below 10000
PRESS TV, Iran - 53 minutes ago
The Dow Jones industrials plummets below 10000 points, as Wall Street stumbles amid the expansion of the financial crisis in the world. ...

Dow Falls Over 500 As Credit Crisis Intensifies Around The Globe
StreetInsider.com (subscription), MI - 1 hour ago
Stock are under heavy pressure this morning, with the Dow dropping over 500 points, as the credit crisis and economic slowdown spreads globally. ...

svinayak · Post by **svinayak** » 06 Oct 2008 21:27

October 6, 2008, 11:45 am
Meet Neel Kashkari: The Man With the $700 Billion Wallet
Posted by Heidi N. Moore

A Goldman Sachs Group alumnus in charge of the nation’s economic rescue? How unusual.

Except, of course, it isn’t. As The Wall Street Journal’s Deborah Solomon reported today, Treasury Secretary Hank Paulson is promoting Neel Kashkari, the Treasury’s assistant secretary for international affairs, to be the point man overseeing the $700 billion financial bailout as the interim head of Paulson’s Office of Financial Stability. The full appointment would need Senate confirmation, which is unlikely to come given the short remaining tenure in this Administration.
The move essentially puts a new title on what Kashkari he has been doing since he joined Treasury in 2006–examining the consequences of an economic housing fallout. Kashkari was one of three Treasury staffers–including general counsel Robert Hoyt and head of legislative affairs Kevin Fromer–who stayed up until 4 a.m. last Sunday putting together the $700 billion bailout bill that was shot down by House Republicans the next day.

Kashkari (above left) is an Indian-American who has a few things in common with Paulson (above right). Both are former Goldman Sachs bankers, though Kashkari, at 35 years old, is much younger and was just a vice president-level banker in Goldman’s San Francisco technology banking effort when Paulson tapped him to join Treasury. Both also are Midwesterners. Kashkari grew up in Stow, Ohio, and earned a bachelor’s and master’s degree in engineering from the University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign. Paulson was raised in Barrington Hills, Ill. And both sport similar hairstyles– or lack thereof.

Kashkari didn’t take a conventional route into banking. He started out as an aerospace engineer at TRW, developing technology for NASA projects like the James Webb Space Telescope, the replacement to Hubble, which is scheduled to launch in 2013.

He earned an M.B.A. at the University of Pennsylvania’s Wharton School of Business. While there, one of his professors was Michael Useem, who liked to put students through grueling, Outward Bound-type strengths of endurance and strategy. Kashkari participated in one Army simulation in 2002 at Fort Dix, where he was quoted in this 2002 Philadelphia Inquirer article in a comment just as applicable to today’s financial crisis as the project he was working on: “We were all taught to play nice,” Kashkari said. “So who’s going to fight in the sandbox?”

After Wharton, Kashkari joined Goldman and worked in San Francisco, where he advised companies that create computer security programs like antivirus software. He and his wife, Minal, still keep a house in California.

Paulson likes to surround himself with people he’s comfortable with: people, mostly, from Goldman Sachs. Paulson’s inner circle already includes former Goldmanites Dan Jester, a financial institutions banker, and retired banker Steve Shafran, who focused on corporate restructuring at Goldman. It also included Robert Steel, who has since left Treasury to become CEO of Wachovia.

Kashkari’s appointment is another example of how deep those Goldman Sachs ties go. In fact, Paulson himself was recruited by a former Goldman Sachs banker: former White House Chief of Staff Josh Bolten. Bolten overcame Paulson’s reluctance to persuade him to take the job as Treasury Secretary at a time when Paulson was so wary of the job that he declined to meet with President Bush because he knew he couldn’t say no to the President himself. According to an article in The International Economy by Fred Barnes in 2006, Paulson also believed that the Bush administration would not be able to accomplish many financial changes in 2007 and 2008. Kashkari’s new job show just how wrong Paulson was back then.
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