Maldives Civil-Military Issues

pankajs · Post by **pankajs** » 19 Feb 2018 11:13

Why worry have curry ... or rather General Tso's chicken at Taj

Why will the Chinese not flood Maldives or Sri Lanka or Nepal or Greece or EVEN India if they have the money and willingness to travel?

pushkar.bhat · Post by **pushkar.bhat** » 19 Feb 2018 11:16

Twitter chats with folks in Maldives gives me the impression that the guys on the ground want Massive Indian investments. They complain that they need to import everything from india right from bricks to aggregates and despite that we don't invest into them. Other asked for help to take care of their housing crisis. Seems a lot of the things folks on the ground are asking for is doable. A guy said that they turned to the Chinese because our mandarins did not respond to their plea's for close to a decade. (You know which decade). Still possible to turn the tide but will require some deft time bound execution.

Pulikeshi · Post by **Pulikeshi** » 19 Feb 2018 12:53

Philip wrote: Mr.Modi is truly abominably served by the eunuchs of our MEA establishment , both retired and serving, many who firmly believe that a posse from the White House will come to our rescue for all our problems whether it is Pak, China or microscopic Maldives.

For a guy how was denied visas by the US, at the connivance of several ‘useful idiots’ and pilloried in public, if what you claim is true:
Mr. Modi would not only be dense enough to rely entirely on the bureaucracy, but also be an imbecile to rely on any outside power bailing him out!
Neither of which is in fact true!

pushkar.bhat · Post by **pushkar.bhat** » 19 Feb 2018 14:57

Yameen has now moved to the Majlis to get the State of Emergency extended by an additional 15 days. The Majlis meeting is happening under tight security with Press and Observers not being allowed to the venue due to security concerns.

Jits · Post by **Jits** » 19 Feb 2018 16:18

Philip wrote:The slimeballs in Male has forgotten that not so long ago there was a drinking water crisis there and who saved his bacon? India! By sending ships carrying water. Everything in the Maldives barring a few coconuts and fish has to be imported.A naval blockade alone will set off massive shortages , unrest and his own population will throw him to the sharks.The well-heeled firang tourists will fly away and he will be up the creek without a paddle, fit to fry for Friday's feast.

Policy of economic blockade did not worked against nepal and we have an anti India Koli returning to power. Economic blockade will only set the people of malidives against us. Let the Indian navy surround malidives not allowing any other country to interfere there, till we create a regime change, followed by India Maldives friendship treaty in which leasing of a port or land to any third party can be done only after consultation with india.

pushkar.bhat · Post by **pushkar.bhat** » 19 Feb 2018 16:41

I say don't use force. The protest are already spreading to the other atolls. There have been large scale protests in Addu Atoll over the last 3 days. Just allow the opposition to keep at it. Police will get stretched sooner or later. I expect that in the days to come Maj Gen Shiyam will tell the AG that he cannot keep sustaining the wall. That will automatically lead to YAG being asked to cut the chase and run away.

I think YAG is already breaching all promises he made to the International community. Sooner or later he will be a liability and not a asset to the Huns. That is the point when they will cut the role to his life raft and allow him to drift to meet his fate. That time is quickly coming up.

chetak · Post by **chetak** » 19 Feb 2018 17:54

Jits wrote:
Philip wrote:The slimeballs in Male has forgotten that not so long ago there was a drinking water crisis there and who saved his bacon? India! By sending ships carrying water. Everything in the Maldives barring a few coconuts and fish has to be imported.A naval blockade alone will set off massive shortages , unrest and his own population will throw him to the sharks.The well-heeled firang tourists will fly away and he will be up the creek without a paddle, fit to fry for Friday's feast.
Policy of economic blockade did not worked against nepal and we have an anti India Koli returning to power. Economic blockade will only set the people of malidives against us. Let the Indian navy surround malidives not allowing any other country to interfere there, till we create a regime change, followed by India Maldives friendship treaty in which leasing of a port or land to any third party can be done only after consultation with india.

The momeens are cunning and clever. In India, they see an entity that can be milked ad nauseum and without any consequences. They know that the fool Hindus will rush in with aid/whatever whenever required without asking for anything in return.

They will not dare to take a chance with the chinese as there will be swift consequences, because with the hans, everything is transactional and they always have to win.

When we went in to help the maldivians out the last time, what stopped us from putting very stringent conditions about consulting us as the dominant power in the region, which we still are, BTW.

What stopped us from doing the same thing with the beedis, after 1971??

what stopped us in nepal, since independence, instead we have open borders with a bunch of people inimical to us and our interests and all these aholes, the lankans, the beedis, the maldivians, the nepalese have their perpetually outstretched begging bowls and they don't merely ask but stridently demand that we keep filling their bleddy begging bowls all the time.

It is the prithviraj syndrome that will be the death of the Hindus and everyone, especially the momeens know this and have exploited this unfortunate trait for tens of centuries.

We will never blockade, never occupy, never invade nor will we ever harm them. Candy arses that we are.

If only, we once invaded some shithole neighbour and roughed them up, the rest of the ahole neighbours would immediately shut up and also give us the due respect.

All your dreams of threatening the lankans, the beedis, the maldivians and the nepalese will come to nought.

Gagan · Post by **Gagan** » 19 Feb 2018 18:07

Philip ji
Very good post. But the BJP/NDA has just gotten started. They have done more diplomatically in this short period of time than any other GoI has done.
All of India's neighbours drifting away to the greasy, greedy Han hands is due to the sheer neglect, misgovernance that we saw in Delhi during the last decade, the black decade. The scams that have been done during that decade, I feel we know about only a few big ones - not the multitude of smaller ones, which are likely bigger in volume, it would appear that the intent was to destroy India economically, politically and diplomatically.

These people who were in power before the BJP came in, were no guardians of India, I won't call them enemies of India, but their actions came very close to destroying India at a slow, but sure pace.

Gagan · Post by **Gagan** » 19 Feb 2018 18:10

The longer Yameen keeps the emergency on, the more tourism and therefore the livelihood gets hurt.
Male is the gateway to the Maldives, the other airports are not developed yet. If you keep this city and airport locked down, no tourists, no money comes in.
This situation is not going to go away after 15 more days of emergency as Yameen thinks. His days in power are numbered.
The fact that he has to hold a closed door meeting of the Majlis, with security all around, shows, that he has lost the trust of the people.
Either the military will intervene, or there will be a mass outcry from the people. Something will happen.

pankajs · Post by **pankajs** » 19 Feb 2018 18:34

^^
The fact that he had to extend the emergency indicates that he still does not have the control of the country and has to rely on delaying tactics. Theek hai bhai ... take your time .. perhaps order a China or a Bakistan!

So India has to wait for the Maldevians to makeup their mind one way or the other. Meanwhile, have some beer/soda/tea with Chicken/Veg Manchurian.

pushkar.bhat · Post by **pushkar.bhat** » 19 Feb 2018 19:15

Few important developments have taken place in the last 24 hours.
1. Parliament was called to endorse the State of Emergency in Maldives. The Opposition boycotted and then they moved the discussions to a High Power Committee. Even the meeting of this committee had to be extended to 2000 Hrs. Seems even ruling party folks are not all on board. Else like the FTA they would have rubber stamped it in 15 mins. Some of the youth members of the MDP have been released which seems to be some sort of a re-conciliatory move. This evening there have been some rumors that SoE may be withdrawn. The situation at best is fluid.
2. India Surveillance radars are no more sending data back to mother ship India. https://twitter.com/MaldivesMedia/status/965578734664216576
3. Protests have now spread to other Atolls. There is substantial amount of doubt building up among the fence sitters on the viability of the regime.
4. The Speaker of the Sri Lankan Parliament has written to the Speaker of the Majlis and read the Riot Act on behalf of the SAARC https://twitter.com/MaldivesVoice4/status/965544806717050881 This is a interesting development given that besides India Sri Lanka is the closest to Maldives geographically and culturally.

Philip · Post by **Philip** » 19 Feb 2018 19:44

SL pressure known.Tightening the vice.Uniform no.1 to quote the Bard,
" is a lean and hungry man, such men are dangerous"!
Maldivian constitution requires the p'ment to endorse the SOE I think after 2 weeks or so. Famous Q."Can the centre hold?" Tadpole is relying hugely on Sino-Pak support to stay on. Situ fluid.

Philip · Post by **Philip** » 19 Feb 2018 20:10

pushkar.bhat · Post by **pushkar.bhat** » 19 Feb 2018 21:19

Philip wrote:SL pressure known.Tightening the vice.Uniform no.1 to quote the Bard,
" is a lean and hungry man, such men are dangerous"!
Maldivian constitution requires the p'ment to endorse the SOE I think after 2 weeks or so. Famous Q."Can the centre hold?" Tadpole is relying hugely on Sino-Pak support to stay on. Situ fluid.

Folks another update:
1. SoE is now null and void. Its has not been ratified and approved by parliament so cannot run beyond 14 days. Parliament could not get the quorum of 43 required to have a vote. YAG had only 39 MP's with him after throwing a large section of the opposition into prisons and disqualifying 12 MP's via a kangaroo court order. YAG has tried his best to get a stamp from a High Power committee. But a committee is not equal to the parliament. So by law the SoE is now officially illegal.
2. This officially places the country into a constitutional limbo where no precedence exists. Does this call for the Supreme court to now stand up one does not know. We need to look at their statues. Yameen cannot continue unless he does not now call this thing he is running a dictatorship. If that happens then International pressure will be immense.
3. At least Pakistan will have to officially distance themselves. China will be in a weak position but they usually don't care. We need to be ready to take them on.
4. A constitutional breakdown and demand of the people to restore democracy will be valid grounds to wade into the pond.
5. Philips Sir: I think Shiyam, Anil and YAG will be dealt with appropriately once all the blocks fall into place.

Sh*+ this is all now making sense..

Neshant · Post by **Neshant** » 20 Feb 2018 02:48

As predicted.
2 weeks of martial law has turned into 2 months.
And it will keep being extended till the dictator Yameen has consolidated power.

-----------
Emergency extended in Maldives by 30 days as key committee backs president Yameen

https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/wor ... 987025.cms

pushkar.bhat · Post by **pushkar.bhat** » 20 Feb 2018 05:35

All actions which curtail freedom's of the citizens are now illegal. That itself is a tricky situation. Anything and everything he now does is like driving a nail in his coffin. So Yameen is now officially on a very slippery path.

pushkar.bhat · Post by **pushkar.bhat** » 20 Feb 2018 05:58

One day once this situation clears up I want to share my perspective on how we may reached here. Current alinetion of Maldives is not all evil Yameen design or clever thinking by the Huns. It's also got a fair bit of bad karma and procastranation from south and north block.

ashish raval · Post by **ashish raval** » 20 Feb 2018 06:16

Why the f should we bother when the local population is not bothered about their own country or protesting !! Our priority should be how Taiwan, Mongol and Vietnam can have a nbum test in next decade.

pankajs · Post by **pankajs** » 20 Feb 2018 06:50

Has anyone checked with Taiwan, Mongolia or Vietnam if they are interested in having a *nbum*? or is it yet another wet dream of ours like many others?

pankajs · Post by **pankajs** » 20 Feb 2018 06:53

Most such situation will turn bad before they turn for the good given the absolutely human desire of those in power to hold on to it by hook or crook. Nothing new or unusual about it. All depends on how far Yameen is willing to go and the risks he is prepared to take.

Next, we should expect Yameen to dial a friend.

Maldives is located in our area of concern. While we may not be able to influence the events there, we need to keep an eye on the goings on there because of that location.

pushkar.bhat · Post by **pushkar.bhat** » 20 Feb 2018 07:43

I say chaps if we want the fence to be secure, then we need to have our bi-laterals funded and resourced. That investment will deliver far greater returns than half a sqn of Rambha's.

Aarvee · Post by **Aarvee** » 20 Feb 2018 07:54

http://www.news.com.au/world/maldive-cr ... 6c1b26828e

A naval force of at least one modern destroyer, a frigate, an amphibious assault ship and a support tanker entered the Indian Ocean last week. It is believed destined to linger off the scenic scatterings of coral, sand and palm trees.

International affairs analysts believe they’re there to stop India from intervening.

pankajs · Post by **pankajs** » 20 Feb 2018 08:01

^
Laughable to say the least ... A destroyer and a frigate will stop India!

Aarvee · Post by **Aarvee** » 20 Feb 2018 08:10

Of course they cant. But an amphibious assault ship with a few hundred(?) marines may be enough to secure their atolls of interest or provide security to the incumbent dictator? If they go in as "peace keeping force" may be on invitation, imagine the loss of face for India!

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 20 Feb 2018 08:19

ashish raval wrote:Why the f should we bother when the local population is not bothered about their own country or protesting !! Our priority should be how Taiwan, Mongol and Vietnam can have a nbum test in next decade.

And how would you plan to hide from govt goons after the protest on a island barely about 2 sq miles?

pankajs · Post by **pankajs** » 20 Feb 2018 08:19

Loss of face is more imagined than real ... Taiwan is *core* of *One* China per the Chinese themselves but it has stayed independent.

Is that a loss of face for China? In one sense it can be argued it is!
BUT has it stopped China's rise? Of course not.
Has China's stock increased or decreased across the world in the last 50 years? Can anyone doubt a rising clout of China inspite of Taiwan?

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 20 Feb 2018 08:21

Aarvee wrote:Of course they cant. But an amphibious assault ship with a few hundred(?) marines may be enough to secure their atolls of interest or provide security to the incumbent dictator? If they go in as "peace keeping force" may be on invitation, imagine the loss of face for India!

That is exactly the end goal. Once chinese marines of
CPKF land in male it is game over and time to roll out usual excuses.
Even if they land on the 17 atolls they have purchased it is game over

Philip · Post by **Philip** » 20 Feb 2018 08:27

Unless you then have the b*lls to throw them out ot dehydrate them by imposing a naval blockade.The latest mischief and further stabbing the corpse of democracy in the Maldives yesterday indicates that the pigshit in Male has his Chin and Paki ISI backing.He is incorrigible and should be fed to the sharks.

pankajs · Post by **pankajs** » 20 Feb 2018 08:29

I say leave Yameen alone with his friends.

Aarvee · Post by **Aarvee** » 20 Feb 2018 08:29

pankajs wrote:Loss of face is more imagined than real ... Taiwan is *core* of *One* China per the Chinese themselves but it has stayed independent.

Is that a loss of face for China? In one sense it can be argued it is!
BUT has it stopped China's rise? Of course not.
Has China's stock increased or decreased across the world in the last 50 years? Can anyone doubt a rising clout of China inspite of Taiwan?

The times were different. We can not securely grow with a string of pearls (SOP) around us. As far as I know, china didnt really have a SOP although Taiwan was defiantly independent right under its nose. I doubt we will be allowed to grow if (or is it when) china gets a firm foot in Maldives and SL.

Edit: Taiwan and china are David vs Goliath. And every one supports David. Are we hoping to be David or a giant?

Aarvee · Post by **Aarvee** » 20 Feb 2018 08:31

Really really hope, something is being down in the shadows and our trust in the pigeon and Modi is well founded. Hope there is a strategy and is not just inaction.

pankajs · Post by **pankajs** » 20 Feb 2018 08:34

Sure sure ... put all kinds of mental shackles on your mind ... and blame China for that, Perfect! Saves a lot of thinking I guess.

Why is *loss of face* different for China vs India? Taiwan is *core* to China as declared by none other than China itself. Maldives is important but not *core* to India itself.

More importantly, How will China and its string of pearls prevent India from *growing*? Making statement is easy when one does not have to back it up with facts or logic. So then it turns into a *my statement* vs *your statement*. If that is your logic then fine.

BTW, China is still trying to break out of the first Island chain and push US out of South China sea. Don't believe me but ask the Chinese. If that was not a *string of pearls* I don't know what is? But yet China became the economic powerhouse it is ...

We have, to quote someone, "Nothing to fear but fear itself" and the fear that makes us incapable of thinking and makes the Chinese appear 100 foot giants! The Chinese are brilliant at psyops and I can see that even on this forum.

Aarvee · Post by **Aarvee** » 20 Feb 2018 08:49

pankajs wrote:Sure sure ... put all kinds of mental shackles on your mind ... and blame China for that, Perfect!

Why is *loss of face* different for China vs India? Taiwan is *core* to China as declared by none other than China itself.
More importantly, How will China and its string of pearls prevent India from *growing*?

Making statement is easy when one does not have to back it up with facts or logic. So then it turns into a *my statement* vs *your statement*. If that is your logic then fine.

http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1 ... 0801886314

https://southfront.org/chinas-string-of-pearls-project/

http://www.e-ir.info/2015/07/26/string- ... gn-policy/

https://www.quora.com/Why-is-String-of- ... d-security

India is trying to reclaim it's position as a giant, as a strong and stable super power. I dont think that is Taiwan's intention, which is just to survive as an independent nation. Not really similar scenarios. We want to show to ASEAN/SAARC that we can be a stable counter balance but we can not even block cheen from pitching its tent a thousand kms from our main land! I am surprised you think it is okay.

how do you expect a nation to securely grow, when it is surrounded on all sides with spying stations that may double up in future as support stations for espionage activities? what happens when we are hindered by blocks (naval/air) all around, can we stretch our legs? What if we can not enforce blockades at will in Arabian sea/ bay of bengal/melacca straits/IOR ?

Aarvee · Post by **Aarvee** » 20 Feb 2018 08:53

Remember how the east india company came? apparently for trade! now cheen wants to do trade via obor.

I am not proposing we all shiver and wet our dhotis. I want solid action that ensures an enemy never gets close.

Never again. Better safe than sorry.

Philip · Post by **Philip** » 20 Feb 2018 08:59

In fact India should've first sent a cordon sanitaire saying that this was to prevent foreign intervention!

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 20 Feb 2018 09:10

CPKF will probably leave male after a presence of few months to 'restore stability' - perhaps Yameen will be thrown into sea and a new sinic certified munna put in this place.

the objective is twofold, or rather threefold ...

- from a purely mil perspective, showcase Cheens ability to project and use power far away , at least risk, since yameens goons are unlikely to fire at them
- put a new sinic munna in charge , same as yameen but with a better sheen and hence not subject to attack by the "international community"
- rub India's nose in the dirt, show it up as a impotent weak flabby giant who cannot even control the situation 500km from its shore while "big brother" is now a global power , draw a red line that indian can never again dare to think of intervening militarily. leave bands of advisors and trainers in place to manage the maldivian armed forces all across the atolls.

this is a low risk play imo to achieve all these goals and loudly herald china's arrival as a global power and resolver of disputes halfway across the world.

if I were the dragon lord in peking I would take it. while using doklam and tsp to keep india distracted.

imo doklam and tsp are sideshows, this is the main move not the other way around.

he who controls the sea controls the world. land borders will be there forever and have been fought over for centuries. tough to change the status quo. the sea is borderless and whoever controls the chokepoints and has a large fleet owns the sea wherever they sail. it also carries 95% of our trade and 100% of our oil....surrounded as we are on land by failed states and sinic puppets.

pankajs · Post by **pankajs** » 20 Feb 2018 09:12

Aarvee wrote:http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1 ... 0801886314

https://southfront.org/chinas-string-of-pearls-project/

http://www.e-ir.info/2015/07/26/string- ... gn-policy/

https://www.quora.com/Why-is-String-of- ... d-security

India is trying to reclaim it's position as a giant, as a strong and stable super power. I dont think that is Taiwan's intention, which is just to survive as an independent nation. Not really similar scenarios. We want to show to ASEAN/SAARC that we can be a stable counter balance but we can not even block cheen from pitching its tent a thousand kms from our main land! I am surprised you think it is okay.

how do you expect a nation to securely grow, when it is surrounded on all sides with spying stations that may double up in future as support stations for espionage activities? what happens when we are hindered by blocks (naval/air) all around, can we stretch our legs? What if we can not enforce blockades at will in Arabian sea/ bay of bengal/melacca straits/IOR ?

See, your first mistake is in comparing Taiwan with India. Compare Taiwan with Maldives. Yameen too could argue is that Mladives too is just trying to survive as an independent nation like Taiwan. Would you agree hat is fair? So lest assume Maldives goes into the Chinese orbit just as Taiwan has been in the US orbit for the past 50+ years under a security pact.
1. Has the fact that Taiwan is under defacto US protection diminished the Chinese *face*? This was your first concern and I think you have enough evidence to answer that question on your own.
2. Has the above *prevented growth* of China? Your second concern. Again you have enough evidence to answer that question on your own.

Now comes you 2nd point regarding India wanting to show ASEAN/SAARC that "we are a stable counter .. but cannot even block cheen from pitching its tents a 1000 km from our mainland!!!"
Let me guess, you are not interested in Geography/Geopolitics/Foreign policy/US-India-China relationship. If you have some basic knowledge the you would know that US is in SoKo sitting less than 1000 KM from the Chinese mainland!!! Has that diminished the Chinese stature around the world? All I see is Chinese stature increasing around the region and the world inspite of the US tent right near its mainland, a point of your concern.

On your 3rd concern regarding growth, you must read the Chinese commentary more often. They too are contained within something that they call the "first island chain" and most countries in this chain host some kind of a US presence including bases and spying station. Has than cramped the Chinese freedom of action? It certainly has! Has it stopped China's growth? Hell no ... China has become the largest trading nation on earth sometime back!!

Fear is a big deal. It distorts once perceptions and logic. Facts are there for all to see as the situation evolves around India as compared to what was/is around China. But our fear leads us to believe that the Chinese are 100 ft gaints who can do to India what the Americans couldn't do to China in their heydays.

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 20 Feb 2018 09:14

“The history of sea power is largely, though by no means solely, a narrative of contests between nations, of mutual rivalries, of violence frequently culminating in war. The profound influence of sea commerce upon the wealth and strength of countries was clearly seen long before the true principles which governed its growth and prosperity were detected. To secure to one's own people a disproportionate share of such benefits, every effort was made to exclude others, either by the peaceful legislative methods of monopoly or prohibitory regulations, or, when these failed, by direct violence. The clash of interests, the angry feelings roused by conflicting attempts thus to appropriate the larger share, if not the whole, of the advantages of commerce, and of distant unsettled commercial regions, led to wars. On the other hand, wars arising from other causes have been greatly modified in their conduct and issue by the control of the sea. Therefore the history of sea power, while embracing in its broad sweep all that tends to make a people great upon the sea or by the sea, is largely a military history...”

― Alfred Thayer Mahan, The Influence Of Sea Power Upon History, 1660 - 1783

pankajs · Post by **pankajs** » 20 Feb 2018 09:18

Aarvee wrote:Remember how the east india company came? apparently for trade! now cheen wants to do trade via obor.

I am not proposing we all shiver and wet our dhotis. I want solid action that ensures an enemy never gets close.

Never again. Better safe than sorry.

Again one must study China. American too went to China for trade but ended enabling China to become the largest trading nation now.

China will get closer to you for your comfort no matter what you do just as US is closer to China in SoKo, too close for its comfort. Don't trust me but listen to the Chinese themselves.

Remember this is a connected world, a global village, a flat world and all that kind of $hit ...

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 20 Feb 2018 09:19

taiwan has never in the past decades been used as a american military base or to cause trouble for the mainland. it is militarily weak and does not host any foreign military base. they are unable to even purchase a few SSK vs TSP being kitted up with nuclear weapons and missiles.

the comparison is hence null and void. we already see what the chinese do in TSP.

china is not looking to run maldives as a trading outpost only.