Bharat Rakshak

Mukesh.Kumar wrote:

Mihaylo wrote:
I think we need Dilbu saar to give us the right numbers

Seriously though, I don't see 2019 as a cake walk for the BJP. Reality would be very close to the numbers for BJP in 2014 if not a bit less, although I do see them forming the government if it is less that the magic number.

-M

In fond memory of Dilbuji.

NDA will lose onlee.

What happened to Dilbui saar

-M

5forty3 has once again made his site paywall protected , which I think is a good thing - I would urge others to donate to his efforts, in return for which you get access to his tracker and analyses.

Mihaylo wrote:

Mukesh.Kumar wrote:

In fond memory of Dilbuji.

NDA will lose onlee.

What happened to Dilbui saar

-M

Nothing man. Just that you don't see him putting his hexx in this dhaga. He is missed

In my maternal side of the family, all but one member are voting for Modi. That is 13:1. >50% were previous Congress supporters including my own father. In 2014 they were unsure but nodded to support Modi. Now the discussions are like TimesNow/Republic debate with one voice loudly supporting Modi over the other. Only factor I see is the mirage of NYAY fooling the poor & neo-middle class. Hope BJP & especially RSS cadres on ground like last time to take the reality of NYAY to the last mile.
Edit : One member who is against Modi is my uncle who is a small town real estate developer & lost quite a bit during demonitisation, even though he is an ex-RSS shakha member. But even his wife & children are voting for Modi..

M_Joshi wrote:In my maternal side of the family, all but one member are voting for Modi. That is 13:1. >50% were previous Congress supporters including my own father. In 2014 they were unsure but nodded to support Modi. Now the discussions are like TimesNow/Republic debate with one voice loudly supporting Modi over the other. Only factor I see is the mirage of NYAY fooling the poor & neo-middle class. Hope BJP & especially RSS cadres on ground like last time to take the reality of NYAY to the last mile.
Edit : One member who is against Modi is my uncle who is a small town real estate developer & lost quite a bit during demonitisation, even though he is an ex-RSS shakha member. But even his wife & children are voting for Modi..

Uncle needs to pay taxes like the rest of the country and return to dharmic roots apparently

Suraj wrote:5forty3 has once again made his site paywall protected , which I think is a good thing - I would urge others to donate to his efforts, in return for which you get access to his tracker and analyses.

Suraj san, I am looking at his portal and can't see donation link. Is there a separate link?

nachiket wrote:If Dilbu doesn't show up and perform anti-jinx, we know who to blame if things go wrong.

I believe he was on the Phalcon AWACS in the morning of Feb 27th, fervently chanting into the R/T, India will lose onlee..Pawkis thought one of theirs was jamming the desi comms.

^Saar that is the idea of Dilbu anti-jinx.

vijayk wrote:http://www.elections.in/exit-poll.html (Its opinion poll)

@iamiconoclast prediction - Reasonably good

BJP 271 NDA 336
CON 66 UPA 97

Many surveys/estimates are all in that ball park.
Twitter has the principals posting them.

Even BBC had one estimate in that range.


ECI has been doing its best to appear neutral by hitting everyone and making enemies!

SC has been hitting BJP onlee as it fits their secular self image.

Now all its in voters hands.

My mom moved her US trip to vote for NDA!

Courtesy: New York Times.

Courtesy: CNBC....how Indian Paramilitary is used to setup polling booth in Assamese
https://www.cnbctv18.com/photos/politic ... 771-10.htm

https://www.newsnation.in/photos/lok-sa ... 252/slide1
Shillong: An EVM awareness team uses the famous double-decker living root bridges to traverse polling stations, at Nongriat in Shillong, Monday, April 8, 2019. (PTI Photo)

Courtesy: http://www.bta.bg/en/gallery/image/5673492

Workers arrange Voter-verified paper audit trail or VVPAT machines for handing over to polling officers for the first phase of general elections, at a distribution center, in Ghaziabadi on the outskirts of New Delhi, India, Wednesday, April 10, 2019. Voting will take place in seven phases over six weeks beginning Thursday. Nearly 900 million people, including 15.9 million first-time voters, are eligible to cast ballots in the world's largest democratic exercise. Around a million polling stations will be set up, and voters will choose 543 members of the Lower House of Parliament. (AP Photo/Manish Swarup)

Courtesy: https://www.thehindu.com/elections/lok- ... epage=true

A sanitation worker fogging the premises of a polling station in Durga Puram of Vijayawada Central constituency on Wednesday evening ahead of polling day. | Photo Credit: V. Raju

Samara Shankaravam (war bugle) for elections started with 91 seats today. Exit polls are disallowed until May 19th but un-offcial exit polls may be leaked in social media avoiding EC restrictons. Average of Opinion polls indicate BJP is short of majority but NDA may be close to majority.


Phase 1 election - state wise break-up below: [source NDTV.com]

In Arunachal Pradesh, 12 candidates are contesting in two constituencies. Main parties are BJP, Congress and People's Party of Arunachal (PPA). For phase 1 Lok Sabha election on April 11, number of polling centres are 2202.

In Andhra Pradesh, 319 candidates are contesting in 25 constituencies. Main parties are BJP, Congress, TDP, YSRC, Jana Sena. For phase 1 Lok Sabha election on April 11, number of polling centres are 45920.

In Assam, 41 candidates are contesting in 5 constituencies. Main parties are BJP, Congress and AIUDF. For phase 1 Lok Sabha election on April 11, number of polling centres are 9574.

In Bihar, 44 candidates are contesting in 4 constituencies. Main parties are BJP+JDU alliance, Congress and RJD alliance. For phase 1 Lok Sabha election on April 11, number of polling centres are 7486.

In Chhattisgarh, 7 candidates are contesting in 1 constituency. Main parties are BJP, Congress and BSP. For phase 1 Lok Sabha election on April 11, number of polling centres are 1878.

In Jammu and Kashmir, 33 candidates are contesting in two constituencies. Main parties are PDP, Congress and JKNC alliance; and JKNPP. For phase 1 Lok Sabha election on April 11, number of polling centres are 3489.

In Maharashtra, 122 candidates are contesting in 7 constituencies. Main parties are BJP and SS; Congress and NCP. Other important parties are SSS (Swabhimani Shetkari Sanghatan ), YSP ( Yuva Swabhimani Paksha) and BVA, but they are not contesting in Phase 1. For phase 1 Lok Sabha election on April 11, number of polling centres are 14731.

In Meghalaya, 9 candidates are contesting in two constituencies. Main parties are BJP, Congress, NPP and UDP. For phase 1 Lok Sabha election on April 11, number of polling centres are 3167.

In Manipur, 8 candidates are contesting in 1 constituency. Main parties are BJP, Congress and NPF. For phase 1 Lok Sabha election on April 11, number of polling centres are 1300.

In Mizoram, 6 candidates are contesting in 1 constituency. Main parties are BJP, Congress and ZPM alliance and MNF. For phase 1 Lok Sabha election on April 11, number of polling centres are 1175.

In Nagaland, 4 candidates are contesting in 1 constituency. Main parties are NPP and NDPP. For phase 1 Lok Sabha election on April 11, number of polling centres are 2227

In Odisha, 26 candidates are contesting in 4 constituencies. Main parties are BJP, Congress and Biju Janata Dal (BJD). For phase 1 Lok Sabha election on April 11, number of polling centres are 7233.

In Sikkim, 11 candidates are contesting in 1 constituency. Main parties are BJP, Congress, SDF, HSP, SKM. For phase 1 Lok Sabha election on April 11, number of polling centres are 567.

In Telangana, 443 candidates are contesting in 17 constituencies. Main parties are BJP, Congress, TRS and AIMIM. For phase 1 Lok Sabha election on April 11, number of polling centres are 34603.

In Tripura, 13 candidates are contesting in 1 constituency. Main parties are BJP, Congress, CPM and TMC. For phase 1 Lok Sabha election on April 11, number of polling centres are 1679.

In Uttar Pradesh, 96 candidates are contesting in 8 constituencies. Main parties are BJP, Congress and alliance of BSP, SP and RLD. For phase 1 Lok Sabha election on April 11, number of polling centres are 16633.

In Uttarakhand, 52 candidates are contesting in 5 constituencies. Main parties are BJP, Congress and BSP. For phase 1 Lok Sabha election on April 11, number of polling centres are 11235.

In Bengal, 18 candidates are contesting in 2 constituencies. Main parties are BJP, Congress, TMC and Left (CPM, RSP, AIFB). For phase 1 Lok Sabha election on April 11, number of polling centres are 3844.

In Andaman and Nicobar Islands, 15 candidates are contesting in 1 constituency. Main parties are BJP, Congress, Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) and TMC. For phase 1 Lok Sabha election on April 11, number of polling centres are 406.

In Lakshadweep, 6 candidates are contesting in 1 constituency. Main parties are BJP, Congressand NCP. For phase 1 Lok Sabha election on April 11, number of polling centres are 51.

ShyamSP wrote:Samara Shankaravam (war bugle) for elections started with 91 seats today. Exit polls are disallowed until May 19th but un-offcial exit polls may be leaked in social media avoiding EC restrictons. Average of Opinion polls indicate BJP is short of majority but NDA may be close to majority.

Let's post numbers and facts, not pass off our pet theories, loyalties and wishes by making such generic statement.

Karthik S wrote:

ShyamSP wrote:Samara Shankaravam (war bugle) for elections started with 91 seats today. Exit polls are disallowed until May 19th but un-offcial exit polls may be leaked in social media avoiding EC restrictons. Average of Opinion polls indicate BJP is short of majority but NDA may be close to majority.

Let's post numbers and facts, not pass off our pet theories, loyalties and wishes by making such generic statement.

Take it easy dude. If you don't have anything valuable to add, don't reply. Check older posts.

From my side the BJP govt has done credible work and deserves another term. This may be the sentiment of many if not most educated urban dwellers. However it is rural India which actually votes and will form the govt.

Hearsay: As per one of my acquaintances from UP who is close to SP. This election UP/Bihar is not going to BJP, who will lose because of demonetization, rising unemployment etc. He was mentioning that all the electrification stats are false and answer will be visible at the hustings. He was saying funnily that BJP is castist and has created divide on basis of cast and religion. He also accused the govt of misusing ED/IT/CBI to target opposition.

tandav wrote: Hearsay: As per one of my acquaintances from UP who is close to SP. This election UP/Bihar is not going to BJP, who will lose because of demonetization, rising unemployment etc. He was mentioning that all the electrification stats are false and answer will be visible at the hustings. He was saying funnily that BJP is castist and has created divide on basis of cast and religion. He also accused the govt of misusing ED/IT/CBI to target opposition.

I find it interesting that he did not mention the SP-BSP alliance as the cause of BJP's defeat. That is the only danger. The other reasons are hogwash IMO. And an SP supporter complaining of casteism is hilarious.

All the best to AAP and MIM!

nachiket wrote:If Dilbu doesn't show up and perform anti-jinx, we know who to blame if things go wrong.

Am sharpening my online pitch fork for online lynching.

For good, bad or Ugly, This is the moment of truth for Smart or corrupt Indian voter. Do we want progress and Independence or Doles and life of penury and slavery ? Do we want to compete with Pakis and BD's and play serfs to Palestianian, Chinese and African causes or fight for Indian interests.
This election will define the direction Bharat takes in next 25 years and if Dharma would flourish after centuries of suppression or do we go back to drawing board as Gauri, Gazanavi and Abdali have breached the fort once again.
#Jai Mahakaal

Booth capture news from WB, is it true? What's the point of having elections on all days then.

What is 5Forty3's tracker showing? Not details but general trends.

Just watch % of votes. If there is good % of voting chances of BJP will improve. If not, we are in a problem.

Yagnasri wrote:Just watch % of votes. If there is good % of voting chances of BJP will improve. If not, we are in a problem.

That hasn't been the case in the recent assembly elections.

hanumadu wrote:What is 5Forty3's tracker showing? Not details but general trends.

Admins, please let me know if I should delete this post as it is taken from content behind a paywall. Have tried to provide only limited information. Would urge rakshaks to pay and access 5forty3 analysis.

http://www.5forty3.in/gaze_articles.php?articalid=222

Key points from above article "India at noon on day one: The eastern saffron surge is the story of the day!":
1. BJP+ in unassailable lead in Assam and Bihar.
2. Big news from Odisha. Keen contest in all 4 seats. BJP ahead in 2.
3. BJP leading in both seats in West Bengal as expected.
4. BJP strong in 5 out of 8 seats in UP.

Gurus, is BJP on stronger ground overall on western or eastern UP going into the elections based on demographics etc?

Karthik S wrote:Gurus, is BJP on stronger ground overall on western or eastern UP going into the elections based on demographics etc?

From wiki
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Western_Uttar_Pradesh

Western UP has 26% muslims while it is 20% in all UP. Jats, Jatavs and Brahmins all make more than 15% of the population each.

So western UP is more difficult to win than eastern.

vimal wrote:All the best to AAP and MIM!

Bjp will looose onleee..

My biggest worry is that we were banking on gains from WB and Orissa to offset potential losses in UP. But if polls are rigged in WB, and EC doesn't take any action of providing central forces at all booths, then it may get difficult for BJP.

320/400 tally: bjp 320 ; nda close to 400


Last time (2014) i somehow managed to predict nda score in the bracket much closer to actual results in poll conducted here. This time i'm using same methodology to give this number. Last time my number was accurate, better than the Mission Shakti Asat test accuracy if i discount last time mistakes by adjusting my number based on exit polls. So this time this is my final number. No changes! Cheerio!

NDA : 350+
BJP : 280+
BJP in UP : 50+

Karthik S wrote:Gurus, is BJP on stronger ground overall on western or eastern UP going into the elections based on demographics etc?

Report from Bagpat (Ajit Singh/Charan Singh family bastion) is BJP will break all records, even Jat votes... moving enmasse to BJP.