West Asia News and Discussions

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 04 Oct 2011 05:43

Kurdistan can unravel/unhinge the Turks mostly and thus NATO's Eastern flank

abhischekcc · Post by **abhischekcc** » 04 Oct 2011 10:32

Ramana, how much of a asset and/or liability is Turkey to the defence of Europe?

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 04 Oct 2011 15:11

at present it has no value. the soviet threat to the mediterranean is long gone. iraq, kuwait, qatar, bahrain, KSA and israel are nearby should that ever emerge. nobody wants to invade greece or the balkans from the east. ukraine is peaceful.

shyamd · Post by **shyamd** » 04 Oct 2011 22:12

Assad to Davutoglu: If Syria is attacked, I'll need 6 hours to transfer hundreds of rockets and missiles to Golan Heights to strike Tel Aviv.

Assad reportedly told Turkish FM Davutoglu that he would call on Hezbollah to launch a rocket attack on Israel if Syria is attacked.

Assad to Davutoglu: All these events will happen in three hours, but in the second three hours, Iran will attack the US warships in the Gulf

shyamd · Post by **shyamd** » 05 Oct 2011 01:01

Step 1 achieved. Please read my comments on syria earlier.

Syrian rebel commander takes refuge in Turkey

Anti-government protesters hold up a banner with the Muslim Crescent, Christian Cross, Alawite sect sword and the name of Imam Ali, with Arabic words reading "The Syrian people is one," to show unity among the Syrian sects in Homs, Syria late Monday. (AP)

By SIMON CAMERON-MOORE | REUTERS

Published: Oct 4, 2011 17:12 Updated: Oct 4, 2011 17:19

ISTANBUL/ANKARA: The highest-ranking officer to defect from Syria’s armed forces said on Tuesday he had taken refuge in Turkey, denying claims that he had been arrested when Syrian troops overran a rebel stronghold, state-run Anatolian news agency said.

“We live in a safe place in Turkey, I am grateful to the government and people of Turkey. Turkish officials cared about us,” Col. Riad Al-Asaad said in an interview datelined Hatay in southern Turkey.

Armed resistance to President Bashar Assad’s rule has emerged in recent weeks, six months into a pro-democracy uprising that government forces have tried to crush with violent tactics.

“All of my needs are being met by Turkish officials,” said Asaad, who has emerged as commander of the rebel Syrian Free Army. “The opposition forces in Syria must unite and strengthen their stand until the regime is demolished.”

The rebel colonel’s presence in Hatay, now home to several thousand Syrian refugees, will add to tensions between Ankara and Damascus.

Turkish Prime Minister Tayyip Erdogan plans to visit Hatay soon and is expected to announce sanctions against Syria after having failed to convince his former friend President Assad to halt attacks on civilians and make urgent political reforms.

Speaking to Reuters from the Syrian-Turkish border on Friday, Col. Asaad said more than 10,000 soldiers had deserted the Syrian army and were attacking security forces.

The 50-year-old Air Force officer, who comes from Idlib, a northwest Syrian province bordering Turkey, said Syrian state media were issuing false reports to undermine morale.

“The Syrian regime conducted a brutal operation in Rastan region near Homs city in order to find and arrest me. They claimed that they arrested me at the end of the operation,” Asaad said. “Such stories aim to demoralize the Syrian people.”

Last week, government troops and security personnel, backed by helicopters and tanks, attacked Rastan, where hundreds of insurgents had taken refuge.

Activists in the Rastan area said rebel operations in the area were being led by the Free Officers Movement, which allied with the Syrian Free Army late last month.

Command of Syria’s mostly Sunni military is in the hands of officers from President Assad’s Alawite sect, an offshoot of Shiite Islam that also dominates the security apparatus and the ruling elite in the majority Sunni country.

arun · Post by **arun** » 05 Oct 2011 07:07

X Posted from the Islamic Sectarianism thread.

In Saudi Arabia, the arrest of two septuagenarians in order to force the surrender of their sons who are leaders of an agitation to prevent discrimination being meted out to the minority Shia / Shiite Mohammadden sect by their co-religionists of the Majority Sunni Mohammadden sect, triggers a riot.

AFP citing the Saudi Press Agency via Google:

14 hurt in rioting in Saudi Shiite-majority village: SPA

Agnimitra · Post by **Agnimitra** » 05 Oct 2011 23:34

From Turkish Gulenist newspaper Zaman:
PKK-Iran axis

As the fight between Turkey and the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) intensifies, the problems between the PKK and Iran are declining. Just last week, the PKK’s offshoot, Party for a Free Life in Kurdistan (PJAK), which was established to fight against Iran in 2004, reached an agreement with Iran. PJAK accepted all Iranian demands. In return, Iran didn’t make any promises, let alone concessions.

The swift Iranian victory against PJAK has now incited a new debate in Turkey on how Iran is capable of forcing PJAK, which in reality is the PKK, to stop its terrorist activities in Iran without any condition, but not Turkey. Isn’t the Turkish military supposed to be more powerful than Iran’s?

Well, examining the PKK’s media outlets indicate that Iran’s victory against PJAK is not a military victory, rather a political victory that led Iran and the PKK to reach an agreement to call a cease-fire. It seems that the PKK and Iran have realized that they both need each other as the political map of the Middle East changes. Especially the turmoil in Syria has brought Iran and the PKK together to establish a new axis between the two to open a new corridor between Iran and Syria through Kurdistan in northern Iraq. The following analysis is especially important toward understanding, at least how the PKK perceives the recent developments. The analysis by Yusuf Ziyad appeared from a PKK think-thank institution, the Kurdistan Center for Strategic Studies. The author is not just an “expert” on the region, he has a critical role in the PKK organization; he is the PKK’s media official. Therefore, his analysis must be taken seriously.

“As Turkey reached an agreement with the US to install NATO’s radar units in Turkey, Iran failed to drag Turkey out of the West. It further isolated Iran in the region. Turkey’s decision to support American plans in the Middle East have deeply disturbed Iran. Because there is no neighboring state for Iran to build an alliance with, Iran will build alliances with non-state actors. It is a well-known fact that Iran has had alliances with Hezbollah, Ansar Al-Sunnah, Hamas, etc. The [Justice and Development Party] AKP government has pulled Hamas away from Iran’s influence. As an outcome of an arrangement between Turkey and Hamas, the organization shut down its offices in Damascus.”

Ziyad further goes on to suggest: “At this stage, the best option for Iran is to build a Shiite and Kurdish alliance [with the Shiite-Kurd axis the author implies an Iran-PKK alliance]. As we look at the interests of both the Kurds and the Shiites there is ground to build such an alliance. Turkey’s moderate Islamic model is a direct challenge to the Iranian model of Islam. Promoting the Turkish model of Islam across the Arab world is an American project.”

Ziyad deepens his analysis by adding the situation of Syria to the equation. “The Assad regime in Syria is very critical for Iran. {Shyamd ji, didn't you once suggest otherwise? Could you comment on this?} After the fall of the Assad regime, Iran would not be able to convince the Kurdistan Regional Government in northern Iraq to side with Iran. Turkey’s attempt to remove the Assad regime, at the end would be against Iran’s and the Kurds’ interests in the region. The only way to end this international conspiracy against Iran and Syria would be to build an alliance with the Kurds. With such alliance, Iran would have a new area of operations from Lebanon to Afghanistan; this would become a breathing ground for Iran.”

Looking at the political actors in the region, Ziyad thinks Massoud Barzani’s Kurdistan Democratic Party (KDP) would be against such an alliance because Barzani is serving in the interest of the US and Israel in the region. Therefore, Ziyad suggests “the main pillars of such an alliance would be Iran and the PKK. Given the fact that the PKK is active in all parts of Kurdistan, if both, Iran and the PKK reach an agreement it means all parts of Kurdistan will have become a part of this alliance.” With such alliance, the PKK hopes to gain regional recognition from Iran. Ziyad argues, “As a precondition of such an agreement Iran should recognize the status of Kurds in the region.” Given the fact that this and many other similar analyses which appeared in the pro-PKK press were published at the time when Iran and the PKK had reached an agreement on a cease-fire, indicates that the Iranian victory against PJAK was not a military one. It could be indicative of further complications and an increase of PKK activities in Turkey toward destabilizing Turkish domestic politics to serve the interests of Iran.

I hope the AKP government also realizes how Iran does politics in the region…

Agnimitra · Post by **Agnimitra** » 05 Oct 2011 23:41

^^^ It is going to take the US some time (if at all) for it to really wind up its long-time relationship with its Paki clients. There is too much sunk cost, too much thought-inertia, and too many internal problems for the US establishment to deal with, and for the near future their policy in the region may be on auto-pilot. Everyone is also recognizing Iran's clear emergence as the regional power, even as the neo-Ottoman Turks are trying to become the new most-favoured-Islamic-blue-eyed-boy. It looks like India is also giving clear recognition to Iran's status. So India has to be, and thankfully is being, pro-active.

The Kurdish cause could be yet another common interest between India and Iran. At a time when Pakistan is going to try to "neutralize" Iran vis a vis India, this is another handle we could add as we take the bull by the horns in the changing regional situation.

shyamd · Post by **shyamd** » 06 Oct 2011 10:27

Carl ji quick comments. Of course the Asaad regime is critical to Iran's plans in the regiOn. They have invested so much capital in military and other infra.

However, what the iranians are saying is that if Syria becomes a democracy it's not the end of the world because they can still buy off MPs and there will be some alawite representation.

As for relations with PKK - it was always a Syrian hand anyway. SO it does make sense tO form an alliance with Iran.

The future plan may be to prvide autOnOmy On the lines of Iraq, between Syria, Iraq, Turkey and build comms, railways etc and that region will flourish.
The GCC is already thinking about this.

------------
The turkish sanctions are mainly to punish the traders of Aleppo who have so far failed to join the protest movement.

Agnimitra · Post by **Agnimitra** » 07 Oct 2011 18:33

Looks like India is taking the position that the Syria issue should not be internationalized?:
Syria Arab News Agency (SANA):
Indian Foreign Ministry: International Community Measures on Syria Should Not Complicate Situation by Threats of Sanctions

For reference, Iran has opposed the internationalization of Syria, but seems to want to internationalize Yemen and Bahrain.

RamaY · Post by **RamaY** » 07 Oct 2011 19:37

If we observe West-Asia developments three streams of strategy appears.

1. The group under western control - This group gets to internationalize an issue very easily. Then western trade-sanctions follow. This will be accentuated by an UN endorsed sanction-regime. Somehow a violent protest erupts in the subject region followed by the news of violent-suppression by the state. Depending on the natural resources available in that region, it will lead to a NATO NFZ. That will be followed by military assistance to rebel forces. Once the regime is changed, the regime will be tried in ICJ. Almost all mining/extraction contracts are re-written. The subject region/country orders for huge amount of western arms.

Examples: Iraq, Libya, Syria

2. The group not-under western control - The issue will not get internationalized easily. No trade sanctions. UN resolutions. Linkages between rebel groups and known terrorist entries are widely reported. The state orders a stash of western arms. Coalitions are formed to jointly fight terrorism. rebel groups get banned and their financial assets are frozen. Even if the resistance wins the rulers/govts are encouraged to live in exile. The new govt is under media micro-scope and the strategy 1 (above) starts.

Examples: Bahrain, KSA, Pakistan, China etc.,

3. The region has no valuable (at current scenario) resources. No media coverage. No action. The people are marked as barbarians and left to their fate. Key trade/geo-political pieces are encouraged to secede and become western stooges

Examples: Rwanda, Sudan, Haiti etc.,

Prem · Post by **Prem** » 07 Oct 2011 21:22

x-post
http://www.thehindu.com/business/Econom ... 515383.ece
India, Iran agree on payment mechanism for trade

In a significant development indicating a breakthrough in resolving the India-Iran payment crisis for import of oil as well as exports, both countries have agreed to set up a payment mechanism to facilitate bilateral trade. According to the Finance Ministry, both sides agreed on the mechanism to be put in place for the purpose, including for the payment to Indian exporters and project exporters. Although the statement did not indicate but this would also include payments made by India for buying Iranian crude oil. The issue of payment for oil had been hanging in fire for the last nine months with the Indian side grappling for a solution on the issue. The problem over payment to Iran arose after the Reserve Bank of India on December 23 last scrapped the Asian Clearing Union (ACU), winning appreciation from the U.S., which is using sanctions to force Tehran to halt its nuclear programme. Although Iran has continued to supply crude oil to India , it had threatened to stop supplies if a mechanism to pay for imports is not found quickly. Iran is second only to Saudi Arabia as an oil supplier to India, while India is Iran's second-biggest crude buyer after China, accounting for about 20 per cent of its exports. Iran supplies 12 per cent of total oil needs of India.The Indian exports as well as the oil marketing companies have been struggling to pay Tehran because of international sanctions imposed over Iran. The sanctions include banking restrictions. An interim solution was found wherein Indian companies were to make payments through Turkey. The Indian companies such as Mangalore Refinery and Petrochemicals were to route euro payments to state-owned Turkiye Halk Bankasi (Halkbank) in Istanbul. The bank then transferred the money to the account of the National Iranian Oil Company. In the absence of a clearing system run by regional central banks, refiners in February made one big payment through Germany-based Europaeisch-Iranische Handelsbank (European-Iranian Trade Bank). However, soon after the payment, this route was discontinued.

Agnimitra · Post by **Agnimitra** » 08 Oct 2011 19:34

Turkish army may act if Syrian chaos spills over

Turkish FM Davutoğlu says that if the situation in Syria spills over and poses a risk to Turkey’s stability, Turkey may be forced to resort to military measures but adds that Ankara has no plan to set up a buffer zone

Turkey may be forced to resort to military measures if the turmoil in Syria spills over and poses a risk to stability in Turkey, Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoğlu has said.

“Turkey could resort to military action if a security problem emerges for us. When Saddam [Hussein] cracked down on the Kurds, 500,000 people flocked overnight to the Turkish border. All necessary measures, including military ones, will be taken to control that region if it becomes a security problem,” Davutoğlu said on the 32.Gün television program on Oct. 6.

Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, meanwhile, postponed a trip to Syrian refugee camps in the southern province of Hatay planned for Oct. 9, after his mother passed away. Erdoğan has said he will announce sanctions against the Syrian regime after he visits the camps. In further remarks, Davutoğlu said Turkey would continue to shelter Syrians fleeing repression in their country, but added that Ankara did not consider setting up a “buffer zone” at the frontier. “There is currently no country in the region more important than Syria,” Davutoğlu said, adding that its internal crisis had a bearing on the whole region. The suppression anti-regime demonstrators had reached “an unacceptable level”, the minister said, but refused to speculate on when President Bashar al-Assad would go.

Eight Syrians were killed on Friday as thousands of people rallied against al-Assad and in support of a newly formed opposition front, activists said.

shyamd · Post by **shyamd** » 08 Oct 2011 21:01

^^ Hence why Jordan and Israel are also conducting military exercises.

vishvak · Post by **vishvak** » 08 Oct 2011 22:05

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-15229170
Yemen's Ali Abdullah 'to step down within days'

Mr Saleh has appeared to be ready to resign several times, but pulled out of deals to stand down at the last moment.

One more time.

Agnimitra · Post by **Agnimitra** » 08 Oct 2011 22:21

shyamd wrote:^^ Hence why Jordan and Israel are also conducting military exercises.

FWIW, report via debka...
Assad Tells Jordan: No War Games Like Israel, Turkey

Tensions peaked again around Syria's borders with Israel, Turkey and Jordan as the first two embarked on large-scale mobilization maneuvers near those borders Wednesday and Thursday, Oct. 5-6 and the Jordanian armed forces prepared to follow suit.

debkafile's military and intelligence sources report that the United States and Turkey urged Jordan's King Abdullah to hold a similar maneuver or reinforce his units on the Syrian border. But Bashar Assad decided that being forced to build up his forces on Syria's borders with Turkey and Israel was enough and a Jordanian exercise must be stopped.

Thursday, he sent his powerful brother-in-law Gen. Asef Shawqat to Amman with a stern warning for the king: If the Hashemite Kingdom lines up with Turkey and Israel and deploys extra troops on the Syrian border, Assad will order his air force to bomb Jordanian towns.

And if Israel intervenes to engage Syrian bombers, Damascus would launch surface missiles against Jordanian cities.

It was the second time this week that the Syrian ruler had threatened to punish an enemy with ground-to-ground missiles. Tuesday, Oct. 4, debkafile revealed that Assad had threatened to demolish Tel Aviv by missiles within six hours of an attack on Syria.

Jordan's Abdullah told Gen. Shawqat he agreed to give up his planned military exercise, but not his opposition to Assad actions.
In Washington, Ankara and Jerusalem, the Syrian message to Jordan was taken as an implied warning to Turkey and Israel alike that Assad had no intention of taking their military exercises lying down either and a military response was coming.

The Turkish war game is taking place in the Hatay province which borders on northern Syria. It is scheduled to last nine days. Israel ended its two-day maneuver Thursday, deploying troops within sight of southwest Syria and Jordan.

Israeli and Turkish military movements were coordinated by NATO's European commander Gen. James Staviris who he visited Tel Aviv and Ankara for this purpose in the last week of September.

US Defense Secretary Leon Panetta gave the exercises a seal of approval during his visit to Israel Monday, Oct. 3.

The next day, both armies were in the field. The United States informed both governments that US warships had been deployed in the eastern Mediterranean against any unforeseen events.

Turkish-Israeli military ties remain frozen and relations sour. But Ankara did not refuse American mediation for coordinating their exercises for the first time in more than a year.
The two-day Israeli war game was not announced. It entailed the call-up of the Northern and Central Commands reserve brigades without prior notice. The units were directed to collect the men and officers from home and drive them to their units on the assumption that a missile attack on Israel was already underway and road disruptions prevented them from making their own way.

Chief of Staff, Lt. Gen. Benny Gantz, summed up the exercise by telling the troops: "In the current instability around us, we must be sure that our forces are on the highest level of readiness and keep on enhancing it."

Philip · Post by **Philip** » 10 Oct 2011 10:54

Cairo in chaos,dozens killed in religious fighting between Egyptian Coptic Christians-protesting the detruction of a church and Islamist groups and state forces.

World News latest
Egypt: dozens killed as thousands riot in Cairo

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/

JE Menon · Post by **JE Menon** » 10 Oct 2011 12:51

Now that the Arab Spring is coming to a close in most countries, welcome to the Arab Fall ...

What is happening in Egypt was predictable as sunrise.
Wait now, and probably not much longer, for signs of the new Libyan Dawn...

vishvak · Post by **vishvak** » 10 Oct 2011 13:04

JE Menon wrote:Now that the Arab Spring is coming to a close in most countries, welcome to the Arab Fall ...

What is happening in Egypt was predictable as sunrise.
Wait now, and probably not much longer, for signs of the new Libyan Dawn...

While the UN fiddled about appeasing pakis on Kashmir issue, Indians are annoyed. After all, what would UN do immediately after 'irregular infiltrators' run over some territory and demand legitimacy on a platter, other than appease those who invade?

An annoyed Indian would think twice before wondering about all this and for those who have been passive spectators to ethnic cleansing of Kashmiri Pandits. What happens if Egypt and Turkey become pakisque at the borders of Europe? Has the world learnt anything when the Kashmir issue was raised in UN other than pandering to infiltrators?

Kashmir issue should be thrown out of UN and the entire J&K should be, by UN as a logical judgement of 'dispute', be considered part of India legally by all of UN. This is a very good way to discourage infiltrators from demanding any legitimacy on platter after overrunning any land.

You may find Kashmir issue mentioned here out of place, delete the post please if so. Just trying to point out how infiltrators and those who support invasions have been successful in disuniting others in UN. It is essential to discourage this effectively in all issues everywhere.

JE Menon · Post by **JE Menon** » 10 Oct 2011 13:13

Kashmir issue at the UN? Who's talking about it?

I have not heard any government spokesman in any relevant Western country say anything antithetical to our interests in J&K for some years now in prescriptive terms. People will say how the Kashmir issue should be addressed, etc... We say that too. We too need the Kashmir "issue" resolved, taking into account the wishes of the Kashmiri people and the people of India.

Pratyush · Post by **Pratyush** » 10 Oct 2011 15:03

JE Menon wrote:Now that the Arab Spring is coming to a close in most countries, welcome to the Arab Fall ...

What is happening in Egypt was predictable as sunrise.
Wait now, and probably not much longer, for signs of the new Libyan Dawn...

When it was still the spring in a discussion with a friend I had predicted the course the so called revolutions will take in most Arab countries. He disagreed with me, I told him to study the Iranian revolution, he said its not necessary that the Iranian revolution be repeated. He described it as the Ataturk movement of the Arab world. I told him that the current bunch of dictatorial rulers are more secular then the people protesting on the streets. Any way the discussion went no where as we usually take diametrically opposite positions on most subjects.

But the spring is moving in the direction I had predicted to him back then.

The biggest problem is the inability to form an effective trassitional government capable of solving problems of the state. That is not going to be solved in the short term. Leading to a disenchantment and discrediting of the whole process. If the Islamist bide their time, they will be able to take over the government, by suggesting that they have the solution for all the problems the society faces.

This is the point my friend and a majority of people who supported the spring did not understand.

RajeshA · Post by **RajeshA** » 10 Oct 2011 18:33

Isn't it time that Israel comes to the help of Egyptian Coptic Christians secede from Egypt?

If they cannot have their religious freedom, perhaps it would be possible in a state of their own! A partition should be arranged!

It would give Israelis a valuable ally in North Africa! If the Gazans keep on troubling Israel, and Israel strikes back leading to some sort of war between Egypt and Israel, then anything is possible!

RamaY · Post by **RamaY** » 10 Oct 2011 18:53

^ More than Israel, the right leader for that task is NATO. They already have done that in Sudan.

I guess the violence has to reach the sudan levels before some action can be taken. That is the task for local satraps

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 10 Oct 2011 18:57

and we already have a precedent in ethiopia splitting into eritrea.

Mahendra · Post by **Mahendra** » 11 Oct 2011 02:27

Pat Condell on Palestine

Agnimitra · Post by **Agnimitra** » 11 Oct 2011 07:23

Iraq, siding with Iran, sends essential aid to Syria’s Assad

Agnimitra · Post by **Agnimitra** » 11 Oct 2011 07:26

FT: Iraq threatens to break military links with US
Subscription reqd., posting in full:

Baghdad is threatening to break its military relations with Washington at the end of this year and use private contractors to train its armed forces, as the two sides struggle to agree on terms that would see a small number of American troops remain in Iraq next year.

The two sides have agreed in principle that several thousand US troops should stay in Iraq in a training capacity after the official end of the American mission at the end of the year, but they have become bogged down over whether to grant US troops immunity from prosecution if they commit crimes.

“When we buy [military] equipment, there’s a possibility that ...training could go ahead” on “commercial” terms, he said in an interview at a World Economic Forum event in Abu Dhabi.

However, commercial training is unlikely to replicate the scale of what the US could offer. Iraqi and US officials have been locked in talks for months over the shape and size of a continued presence after the current mission ends on December 31.

A number of Iraq’s political blocs agreed last week to US troops remaining in a training role beyond the end of this year on the premise that they would not be granted immunity from Iraqi law.

“We are ready to discuss the options available without immunity and a different definition for the trainers,” Mr Dabbagh said.

But immunity from prosecution under local law is part of all US “status of forces agreements” (Sofa) with host countries, including Japan, South Korea, Germany and Iraq.

The pacts stipulate that local courts cannot try US military personnel, including for premeditated crimes committed by off-duty forces. This has proved controversial in many host countries, including Japan, where US soldiers have been accused of rape on the island of Okinawa.

The Pentagon said it was considering the Iraqi statements. “We are in the process of discussing these matters with the Iraqi government,” said George Little, the Pentagon spokesman. “As a general principle, US service members serving overseas require appropriate legal protections.”

Both sides want the US to retain a residual training force in Iraq but the details have proved thorny, not least because Iraqi politicians do not want to appear to be encouraging a continued “occupation”. A new Sofa must be approved by Iraq’s parliament.

A US official played down the recent posturing, saying that it appeared to be for domestic purposes.

“We understand that the immunities issue is a sensitive issue in Iraq, so it’s highly likely that Iraqi officials are taking a hard public stand on it while negotiations are underway,” he said.

vishvak · Post by **vishvak** » 11 Oct 2011 11:27

Carl wrote:Iraq, siding with Iran, sends essential aid to Syria’s Assad

How positive should one read this literally?

Samudragupta · Post by **Samudragupta** » 11 Oct 2011 13:54

Assad's Alawites: The guardians of the throne

Fascinating account of what may actually be happenning in Syria.....

In the Arab world, the Sunni exercise a hegemony which has often made minority sects feel insecure. Shia and heterodox sects - such as the Alawites - have been persecuted.

Little is known about the history of the Alawite faith - even among the Alawite community - as its beliefs and practices are available only to the initiated few. It bears little resemblance to mainstream doctrines of Islam and involves belief in transmigration of the soul, reincarnation, the divinity of Ali ibn Abi Talib - the fourth Caliph and a cousin of Prophet Muhamad - and a holy trinity comprising Ali, Muhamad and one of the prophet's companions, Salman al Farisi.

A common theme to Alawite identity is a fear of Sunni hegemony, based on a history of persecution that only ended with the demise of the Ottoman empire. Sunni cultural hegemony, however, remains.

Beginning in the 1960s, the Syrian regime encouraged mainly Alawite peasants to migrate from the mountain regions to the plains, giving them ownership of lands that had belonged to a mainly Sunni elite.

But since the beginning of this year's uprising, some have sent their families back to rural areas for safety. Yahya al Ahmad, an Alawite doctor in Homs told me that his community were resented for migrating and finding work in the government and industry. "Sunnis say we took their jobs and should go back to the countryside," he said.

An Alawite friend told me he was outraged after seeing Sunni demonstrators in Latakia on television, chanting that they would send President Bashar "back to the farm". To him it meant that Sunnis wanted Alawites to go back to their villages.

"The lot of the 'Alawis was never enviable," wrote historian Hanna Batatu. "Under the Ottomans they were abused, reviled and ground down by exactions and, on occasions, their women and children led into captivity and disposed of by sale."

http://www.aljazeera.com/indepth/featur ... 71982.html

Ameet · Post by **Ameet** » 11 Oct 2011 23:26

U.S. officials have disrupted a plot - tied to Iran - to commit a "significant terrorist attack in the U.S.," reports ABC. The plot included the assassination of the Saudi Arabian ambassador to the U.S. as well as attacks on the Saudi and Israeli embassies. Reuters reports AG Holder saying a suspect is in custody, has confessed, and provided information about Iranian involvement.

shyamd · Post by **shyamd** » 11 Oct 2011 23:26

IAF, Oman air force to hold joint exercise

Indian delegation explores defense ties with Kingdom

Agnimitra · Post by **Agnimitra** » 11 Oct 2011 23:43

vishvak wrote:
Carl wrote:Iraq, siding with Iran, sends essential aid to Syria’s Assad
How positive should one read this literally?

Not sure, I was hoping some pundits here could comment.
I think Assad's eventual fall is visible, but Iraq, Iran and other regional players are making their positions clear w.r.t. what their stakes in a post-Assad Syria rather than w.r.t. Assad himself.

Agnimitra · Post by **Agnimitra** » 11 Oct 2011 23:50

An overview of the situation in Yemen for reference, written up by a friend:

Yemen is a mess now with many factions fighting each other:

On one side you've got the JMP led by the Muslim Brotherhood (and several Sunni-dominated Liberal parties which oppose Saleh on grounds of his autocratic rule, rather than his secularism which is why the MB opposes him) backed by armed Hashid tribesmen led by Sheikh Sadiq al-Ahmar and deserting soldiers led by General Ali Mohsen + their protesters, this is the Sunni anti-Saleh bloc.
Then you've got the Shi'a bloc, led by the clerical family the Houthis + their guerillas and the armed tribes from Sa'dah + other pro-Houthi Shi'a tribes which sided with the Houthis against Saleh + their protesters. Politcaly they are led by the al-Haqq party, Yemen's main Shi'a party; one of the Houthi brothers was an MP from this party until Saleh stripped him of his parliamentary immunity and sentenced him to death in absentia (he fled to Sa'dah).
Then you've got the South Yemen Movement, led by Hassan al-Ba'oum, whose protesters have been rioting against the Saleh regime non-stop since mid-2009. These protesters regulary take their guns to the protests to shoot at Saleh forces; they are backed by armed gangs/militias led by Tahir Taman and by Southern tribes who are anti-Saleh. The SYM includes an Islamist branch led by ex-Saleh loyalist Tariq al-Fadli and politcaly they are led by the Yemeni Socialist Party (ex-ruling party of South Yemen) and supported by South Yemen's deposed President Salem al-Beidh. This is the secessionist bloc in the South.
Then you've got the al-Qaeda bloc, led by al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula and backed by numerous radical Sunni extremist movements in the South, united under the banner of Ansar al-Shari'ah. Their goal is to establish a Sunni Islamic Emirate in Yemen and they are mainly comprised of Jihadist elements in the South that were created by Saleh to fight the secular, socialist, secessionists, but turned agaisnt him.
Last, you have the loyalist bloc, led by President Ali Abdullah Saleh and his ruling "General People's Congress" backed by the Republican Guards, led by Saleh's son Ahmad. While the Hashid tribes (together the largest in Yemen) back the JMP, their main rival (Yemen's largest single tribe) the Bakil tribe, still remains loyal to Saleh. The Southerners and the Shi'a have opposed him for decades, but he has always counted on support of the Sunni Northerners to stay in power. Today however, his base has been divided, with some staying by him but most joining th JMP. Saleh has also sent loyalist protesters to rally for him in the streets.

Now many of these factions are fighting each other:

Joint Meeting Parties vs Houthis
Joint Meeting Parties vs Saleh
Houthis vs Saleh
South Yemen Movement vs Saleh
South Yemen Movement vs Ansar al-Sharia
Saleh vs Ansar al-Sharia
Ansar al-Sharia vs Houthis
Ansar al-Sharia vs Joint Meeting Parties
Joint Meeting Parties vs South Yemen Movement

In Jawf, with the withdrawl of Saleh forces, what was a 4-way battle between the government, al-Qaeda, the Houthis and the JMP has now turned into a 3-way battle. In most Sunni regions in the North a 2-way battle is going on between Saleh and the JMP, though in some regions the Houthis or al-Qaeda are involved. In the South the JMP is active in a few cities, in most places there is a 2-way battle between Saleh and al-Qaeda or Saleh and the South Yemen Movement, but in more and more areas a 3-way battle has erupted. In San'a city protesters and militants belonging to the Houthi Shi'a bloc and the JMP Sunni bloc are both active; however, they have mainly tried to avoid confrontations with each other and instead confront Saleh. Al-Qaeda is also active there but they do not have a strong military force and can only carry out bombings.

shyamd · Post by **shyamd** » 12 Oct 2011 00:24

^^ Thanks for that Carl ji. Very interesting indeed.
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Ameet wrote:U.S. officials have disrupted a plot - tied to Iran - to commit a "significant terrorist attack in the U.S.," reports ABC. The plot included the assassination of the Saudi Arabian ambassador to the U.S. as well as attacks on the Saudi and Israeli embassies. Reuters reports AG Holder saying a suspect is in custody, has confessed, and provided information about Iranian involvement.

If you ask me, something def fishy. Iran doesnt need to kill him and that guy is not even in Washington half the time.

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VP Ansari on a state visit to Turkey
Davutoğlu holds talks with Indian Vice President

11 October 2011, Tuesday / TODAYSZAMAN.COM,
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Turkish Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoğlu has held talks with Indian Vice President Hamid Ansari to discuss bilateral relations and regional developments.

Diplomatic sources said both officials discussed bilateral relations and ways to improve the ties between the two nations.

State-run Anatolia news agency reported on Tuesday that Davutoğlu and Ansari discussed Iraq and Davutoğlu briefed the Indian vice president on the latest situation of Turkish-Iraqi relations.

Sources said Ansari and Davutoğlu also discussed violence in Syria and unrest in the Middle East, along with possible cooperation between India and Turkey over energy.

RajeshAji, last line - cooperation over Kurdistan! India wants access.

A_Gupta · Post by **A_Gupta** » 12 Oct 2011 00:44

http://www.nytimes.com/2011/10/12/us/us ... envoy.html
Iranian plot to kill Saudi envoy in the US?

Klaus · Post by **Klaus** » 12 Oct 2011 10:34

Israel and Hamas sign prisoner swap deal.

The Israeli government formally approved the deal - which came out of the blue - early Wednesday, with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu announcing the details in a live address shortly after presenting it to his government during an emergency session on Tuesday night.

The agreement was backed by 26 Israeli ministers after a five-hour meeting, while three nationalist heavyweights - Foreign Minister Avigdor Lieberman, Infrastructure Minister Uzi Landau and Strategic Affairs Minister Moshe Yaalon - voted against it.

Israel's top officials in charge of security, including Defence Minister Ehud Barak, chief of staff Benny Gantz and Shin Beth and Mossad (internal and external security forces) bosses Yoram Cohen and Tamir Pardo all backed the deal with the Islamist Hamas, which rules the Gaza Strip.

Hamas chief Khaled Meshaal confirmed the deal in his own televised speech in Damascus, saying the agreement, which was mediated by Egypt, would see more than 1000 Palestinian detainees freed in exchange for Shalit.

However, a top Israeli intelligence official ruled out the release of two key prisoners, telling reporters that influential Palestinian leader Marwan Barghuti and top Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine (PFLP) militant Ahmed Saadat were not on the list of those to be released.

His remarks contradicted an earlier report from a senior Palestinian official who said the two were among those slated to be freed.

shyamd · Post by **shyamd** » 13 Oct 2011 00:46

Gen Khalid bin Bandar conducted the first TSP - KSA joint troop movements in Pak. They firmed up an agreeement to train the KSA SF due to failures in Yemen.

King Hamad blamed Jordanian mil advisors embedded inthe Bah intelligence service for torture of shia protestors. So he expelled all of them. These were quickly replaced with KSA and Emirati advisors.

Sarko wants to sell mil satelite to the UAE and signed an offsets agreement to help push the rafale sale.

King A placed current KSA ambassador as the incharge of managing the US - KSA big armament deals.
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Indian vice president says time to bring Turkey, India closer

12 October 2011, Wednesday / ABDULLAH BOZKURT, ANKARA
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The Journalists and Writers Foundation on Tuesday presented Indian Vice President Hamid Ansari with a copy of a document showing his great-granduncle’s financial aid to the Ottoman Army during the First Balkan War. His great-granduncle, M.A. Ansari (1880-1936), a medical doctor, was a former president of India.
Indian Vice President Hamid Ansari has said the time is right for Turkey and India to seriously explore greater cooperation in a number of areas during his landmark six-day visit to Turkey, which started on Monday.

“[Turkey's] economy is doing very well. Our economy is doing very well. The time is right to take our relationship to the next level,” he said in response to Today's Zaman's questions. “I do not see any real reason why we cannot move forward in our bilateral relations,” he added.

Turkey became the world's fastest growing economy with 11 percent growth in the first quarter of this year and 8.8 percent growth in the second quarter, while India posted 7.7 percent growth in the three months from April to June, compared with the same period of 2010.

Stressing that unprecedented high-level exchanges between senior officials of the two countries in recent years have served to establish “familiarity with respect to each other,” Ansari said there are so many mutual interests that will benefit both countries. “[Turkey has] great expertise in the area of infrastructure, for example. Indian expertise in IT [information technologies] is well known. Is this being reflected in our bilateral relations? To some degree, yes, but not to a large extent,” he explained, noting that this is just one example of many areas of cooperation India and Turkey should explore further.

Industry analysts estimate that the Indian infrastructure sector will require at least $1 trillion worth of investment in the 2012-2017 period, especially in transportation infrastructure such as railway, highway and port facilities. India has an ambitious National Highways Development Program, under which it proposes to construct 7,000 kilometers of national highways every year for the next few years.

Turkey's construction and contracting industry is well-positioned to take advantage of India's needs, as Turkish companies are already number two, after China, on the list of the world's largest construction companies, according to a 2010 list from Engineering News Record (ENR), the international construction sector's leading magazine, based on the total value of projects undertaken in 2010. Turkish companies are very active in Russia, the Balkans, Arab countries and the Central Asian republics.

Ansari was accompanied by India's minister for social welfare and justice, Mukul Wasnik, a parliamentary delegation and a business delegation during his visit, which also took him to İstanbul and Konya. An honorary doctorate in international relations was conferred upon him by Mevlana University in Konya. On Tuesday, he met with President Abdullah Gül, Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, Parliament Speaker Cemil Çiçek and Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoğlu.

Parliament Speaker Çiçek presented Ansari with a picture of Mukhtar Ahmed Ansari, his great-granduncle, discovered in the Turkish national achieves. M.A. Ansari was not only a key figure in India's history but also played a part in the history of the Republic of Turkey. In December 1912, Ansari led a medical mission to Turkey to provide medical and surgical aid to the Ottoman army fighting in the First Balkan War.

Indian officials told Today's Zaman that terrorism was among the issues discussed in the vice president's meeting with Turkish officials. As both countries suffer from terrorism, they said, Turkey and India expressed their commitment to work together on how to cope with the terrorism threat, be it on a bilateral level or in international forums. The two countries already have a joint working group to share information and strategies to address the issue of terrorism.

Both countries are also studying the possibility of a free trade agreement to bolster trade. A joint working group was established to make inquiries in that regard. The trade volume between Turkey and India was $2.3 billon in 2009, and jumped to $4 billion in 2010. In the last eight months of this year, the trade volume already exceeded the total figure of last year, posting $4.8 billion, an increase of 85 percent compared to the same period last year. The trade heavily favors India, with $4.2 billion in imports from India to Turkey and $533 million in exports to India from Turkey in the January-August period.

In the last few years, the frequency of senior-level contacts between India and Turkey has increased significantly, reflecting the presence of a mutual will to eventually fulfill the as yet unmet potential for bilateral cooperation. In February 2008, Turkey's then-foreign minister, Deputy Prime Minister Ali Babacan, paid an official visit to India, becoming the first Turkish foreign minister to visit the country in three decades. Babacan's visit was followed by Prime Minister Erdoğan's official visit to the southern tip of the Indian subcontinent in November 2008. In February 2010, President Gül went to India for a six-day “state visit” -- described as the highest level of state protocol -- making him the first Turkish president to visit the South Asian country in 15 years. The Indian vice president's visit marks the first high-level Indian delegation to visit Turkey since 2003, when then-Prime Minister Atal Behari Vajpayee made a trip to Turkey.

shyamd · Post by **shyamd** » 14 Oct 2011 23:46

For those interested in the Syria situation. This is an article that I am writing for the blog.

The conclusion in the GCC is that a civil war will strengthen the Asaad regime and allow him to last longer. This is why from the beginning the KSA was telling the US they don't want the MB in power in Syria (The US is busy cutting deals with MB in Egypt and Syria if some sources are to be believed but we'll leave that for another day) and that the KSA want a secular govt in power (another reason for this is that arabia has been at war with Mesapotamia and Persia since mankind).

So whats the next step?

The next step is for the intel services of the GCC, Turkey and Jordan to contact the key movers and shakers within the Syrian military. Making them split and join with the protestors will actually strengthen the Asaad position and allow him to retain control for longer. Then Syria will descend into another Iraq. So the move is to essentially establish contact with the Syrian Colnels etc and negotiate with them. Get their opinions together and eventually cripple the ability of the military to function. Then essentially support the Syrian people's aspirations. This could be similar to that of Egypt or could even be via a military coup de etat.

This should occur when soldiers are sick off killing unarmed protestors to the point of disgust and start rebelling against illegitimate instructions from superiors.

The defection of Col. Maher Al Asaad showed that even minorities are against the Asaad regime. The protestors have decided not to take up arms and this is actually to prevent a civil war from taking place.

Asaad's response.

Asaad's response has been quite smart. He is not afraid to kill many people. His forces in key positions are mainly from the Syrian minorities and from families that have been allied with the regime. This has brought an attitude where the soldiers are killing for the protection of their communities. The continued use of the terms 'fighting armed groups' is to project a legitimacy and maintain the morale of the military and avert pressure.

However, our sources suggest that the Asaad regime has decided to sideline the military from anti protestor operations. The regime has chosen to use the Hezbollah, Iranian police/troops and other Alawite militia's to conduct the anti protestor policing/killings. This is to prevent the military from splitting.

The Syrian intelligence has conducted several operations in neighbouring countries. Intelligence sources confirm that several key opposition figures (Over a dozen) have been kidnapped in Turkey and Lebanon by the Syrian intelligence. The well known case to date is that of Colonel Hussein Harmoush who has retracted all his statements that he made when he had defected.

Tehran's role

Tehran's role is to provide military support and also from a strategic perspective provide the Syrian regime with the experience (dealing with protestors, their communication, disrupting protesters via the internet) that was learned during the 2009 mass protests in Iran in the wake of Ahmadinejad's election victory.

The Iranian National Security council have written a document on how they can provide support to the Syrian regime. These mainly involve economic projects such as the $10billion oil & gas pipeline from Iran to Syria of which lots of money had already been transferred to the Syrian government.

Conclusion

Our conclusion is that we expect to see this conflict being drawn out for a longer period than previously expected although the Turkish intelligence is telling its friends that Asaad's fall will come quickly. Is this because they have already began negotiating with key players?

As India is a relatively fringe player in this crisis, we should remain neutral and suggest that the Asaad regime must implement reforms or risk exhausting the patience of the international community. At the same time, we should begin establishing contacts with key elements of the regime to ensure our interests in the country are protected in a post Asaad Syria.

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Feel free to provide suggestions and give me your thoughts.

Thanks.

Prem · Post by **Prem** » 14 Oct 2011 23:59

INDIA AND ISRAEL ARE NATURAL ALLIES FOR THE SAME REASON...:
India Fumbles on Palestine: New Delhi has been far too slow to recognize that Israel ought to be a natural ally. (SADANAND DHUME, 10/13/11, WSJ)

Instead of throwing its weight behind Israel--a natural ally with whom India shares more interests than it does with almost any other country--the left-leaning Congress Party-led government in New Delhi has publicly backed Palestinian brinkmanship on the statehood issue.
"The Palestinian question still remains unresolved and a source of great instability and violence," declared Prime Minister Manmohan Singh at the United Nations last month. "India is steadfast in its support for the Palestinian people's struggle for a sovereign, independent, viable and united state of Palestine with East Jerusalem as its capital, living within secure and recognizable borders side by side and at peace with Israel."On the face of it, there's not much new in Mr. Singh's statement. India was the first non-Arab state to recognize Palestinian independence in 1988, and mouthing platitudes about support for the Palestinian cause while simultaneously deepening security and trade ties with Israel has been a hallmark of New Delhi's policy toward the region since it established full diplomatic relations with Israel in 1992.

http://brothersjuddblog.com/archives/20 ... ral_a.html

vishvak · Post by **vishvak** » 15 Oct 2011 00:18

In Israeli-Palestinian conflict, Vatican supports Palestinians

...as a means of preserving the remnants of the Catholic presence in the region
...
“According to Archbishop Veglio, the lack of separation between faith and state is the chief hurdle,” and, the cable says, “Veglio observed that the mixing of state and religion…caused problems in Israel,” though he did note the Jewish state was “the only country in the region with ‘democratic aspects.'”

Here the Vatican is arguing separation of state and religion, though Church itself is religious. Thankfully the Archbishop did not fail to acknowledge that Israel is 'the only' country in the region that is a democracy to an extent.

Of course, there is the usual dhimmi behavior of opposing Jews for well-being of Christians on Arab lands.
Link