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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch
Posted: 18 May 2022 00:38
by Atmavik
Dilbu wrote:Do not phyrr your AKs yet biraders. TSP is meeting with IMF tomorrow and it is likely that they will get another lease of life. However it is just kicking the can down the road a little bit further and things are getting out of hand with each passing year.
IMF will force them to raise petrol prices causing mass protests and unrests … Immy can get the labaik crowd on the streets
Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch
Posted: 18 May 2022 01:20
by Bart S
krithivas wrote:^^ The best diversion is scheme a green terror attack within India or become hyperactive at the LOC. What are the odds?
There is a reason that Bajwa and co were desperate to put in place a ceasefire along the LOC. An active LOC which forces them to mobilize will be a fast ticket to bankruptcy for them.
Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch
Posted: 18 May 2022 03:41
by CalvinH
The PMLN government doesnt want to meet IMF terms without firm backing of the Khakhis. Government isnt naïve to take the full fallout themselves. They want promises that Khakhis will help them internally in easing the blowback by:
- Going hard on Imran so that he can't exploit it politically
- Not backstabbing them in future as they navigate the situation and take Pakistan out of it.
So its not so much about an understanding between IMF and Paki Government. Its about an understanding between Bajwa and Shahbaz Sharif.
Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch
Posted: 18 May 2022 03:45
by CalvinH
Cyrano wrote:What a bankrupt neighbourhood we live in - Pk, SL, NP, BD !
Frankly and not relevant to the dhaga but we would be in the same boat if not for the present government in India. COVID-19 induced conditions, UKR-RUS war, supply side inflation and US tightening the money supply is the perfect storm for countries with weak economic fundamentals.
Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch
Posted: 18 May 2022 05:37
by athulya
Hafiz Sheikh, the former finance minister has landed in Karachi, has been granted transit bail by Sindh High Court.
Pakistani delegation will meet IMF team tomorrow in Doha.
Gents, I think they're gonna get that $1 Billion tranche , and all that imdad they have been eyeing from Saudi / UAE(after IMF stamp.) Hopefully the dhoti shivering will help jinx their trip , but I'm afraid they will live to fight another day.
Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch
Posted: 18 May 2022 06:21
by RCase
Vips wrote:Porkis will say since it does not have any resources to defend itself even in a short term war it will use its atom bomb as a minimum deterrence against its enemies.
The big question is - Will it work? Also, need fuel for plane or rocket to deliver the bum.
Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch
Posted: 18 May 2022 06:26
by RCase
Bart S wrote:krithivas wrote:^^ The best diversion is scheme a green terror attack within India or become hyperactive at the LOC. What are the odds?
There is a reason that Bajwa and co were desperate to put in place a ceasefire along the LOC. An active LOC which forces them to mobilize will be a fast ticket to bankruptcy for them.
The Indian government should have gone for the jugular and not accepted a ceasefire. It is a fallacy to think of a 'stable and prosperous' Pakistan is in India's interest A neutered, shattered and balkanized Pakistan is in India's interest. A landlocked Pakistan will not be able to create as much mischief as it does currently.
Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch
Posted: 18 May 2022 07:44
by Aditya_V
No fallacy, we are not exactly in a great economic position with fuel prices and stoppage of Russian arms exports and 6 divisions on the China border.
We need to build roads electricity supply fuel stocks, Ammo stocks up. We will hit them when convenient.
Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch
Posted: 18 May 2022 09:48
by Anujan
Vips wrote:Porkis will say since it does not have any resources to defend itself even in a short term war it will use its atom bomb as a minimum deterrence against its enemies.
Pakis have already use this excuse to beg.
Please search for "strategic stability in South Asia", it is a code word for "Give free arms to Pakistan, otherwise Pakistan will nuke India and we will both die". Dozens of "Defence analysts" in Pakistan have written articles along these lines, so much so that they even started an Institute (South Asian Strategic Stability Institute) to push this line and ask for more free goodies from Massa.
Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch
Posted: 18 May 2022 11:37
by Dilbu
Double century!
Ahead of IMF talks: Rupee breaches 199 level vs dollar in open market
KARACHI: The rupee slumped to a new record low on Tuesday, breaching the level of 199 to the dollar in the open market on prevailing uncertainty on the resumption of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) bailout programme. The rupee was selling at 199.50 against the dollar in the kerb dealings, while some money changers even quoted it at 200. However, the rates provided by the Exchange Companies Association of Pakistan (ECAP) showed that the rupee closed at 198 versus the greenback.
Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch
Posted: 18 May 2022 11:49
by SRajesh
^^
A noob question: Did Chiddu and rest of the Paki-pasand Paki's deliberately allow printing of Indian Currencies in Paxatan to keep them afloat
Looks like since 'Demonised Demonetisation' Pak Rupee is in free fall and Paxatan Economy is going South!!
Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch
Posted: 18 May 2022 11:49
by CalvinH
I think the bigger selling point was "Nukes in Danger" of falling into the hands of the terrorists. Pakis have already declared full victory on terrorism with US departure from Afghanistan. Pakis have won the war and have regained full control with birader mulk Afghanistan.
Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch
Posted: 18 May 2022 12:19
by Aditya_V
Rsatchi wrote:^^
A noob question: Did Chiddu and rest of the Paki-pasand Paki's deliberately allow printing of Indian Currencies in Paxatan to keep them afloat
Looks like since 'Demonised Demonetisation' Pak Rupee is in free fall and Paxatan Economy is going South!!
It was more likely a bribe to stop.26/11 type attacks and major bombings in Indian cities and obviously routed through SL and Nepal. No wonder leaders in all 3 nations along with BIF were pissed off with Demo.
Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch
Posted: 18 May 2022 13:52
by Dilbu
SITUATIONER: Dollar-driven ‘domino effect’ won’t spare anyone
• Under-privileged groups, lower-middle class most susceptible to inflationary pressures
• One rupee rise in dollar price increases foreign debt by around Rs1bn each time
• Manufacturers complain each hike decreases their products’ competitiveness in global market
The debt servicing burden has gone up by Rs3,700 billion due to the 19 per cent devaluation of rupee during the current fiscal year.
Experts say that every time the dollar goes up by a rupee, the country’s debt rises by around Rs1 billion; the total foreign debt is estimated to be around $130.6 billion.
In addition, an appreciated dollar raises costs of production, which will have an adverse impact on the competitiveness of the country’s products in the international market.
“Pakistan is a trading economy and we roughly import 75pc of our energy needs. The country also imports major raw materials to produce finished foods. Currency depreciation will only lead towards higher energy costs and higher costs of industrial production, which will have a direct inflationary impact on the overall economy,” said Tahir Abbas, head of research at Arif Habib Limited.
Exporter Javed Bilwani, who is also chairman of the Pakistan Apparel Forum, told Dawn the situation is critical for the economy, since most exporters produce their goods nearly 50pc imported materials.
In view of the prevailing economic uncertainty, the Indus Motor Company (IMC) has again suspended advance booking of all vehicles from May 18, 2022 until further notice.
Apologising to their consumers, IMC said deliveries for already-booked vehicles would continue as per delivery schedule. However, other assemblers are yet to follow the suit.
IMC and Lucky Motor Corporation (LMC) had earlier suspended the advance booking of vehicles in the first week of April 2022 due to similar concerns, but the process resumed after a 10 to 15-day break.
Rizvi said the increase in vehicles prices would severely affect car sales in future. Car sales numbers had been showing impressive growth, but “new bookings are facing a sharp decline after the huge hike in interest rates and rising vehicle prices.
He also predicted that auto financing may reach zero in the coming months, adding that the impact of all these factors would be more visible on vehicles sales in 2023.
Association of Builders and Developers (ABAD) Chairman Mohsin Sheikhani said the massive fall in the value of the rupee has sent prices of construction materials soaring to an alarming level, hiking up the construction cost of an apartment to Rs 5,500-6,000 per sq ft from Rs 3,000 some three years ago.
“How can builders work on new projects when steel bars cost Rs215,000-220,000 per tonne and cement is at Rs 850-900 per 50kg bag?” He added that construction on old projects in Punjab and Karachi was continuing while new projects were being shelved.
Sheikhani said that in this environment, the number of people willing to buy flats and properties had also seen a massive decline.
Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch
Posted: 18 May 2022 14:10
by Paul
No let down in spending....afrter all it is the Ashrafiya izzat at stake here,,,,,
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8xoGasJbd9E
Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch
Posted: 18 May 2022 14:12
by Paul
Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch
Posted: 18 May 2022 16:51
by Dilbu
Pakistan-IMF talks begin in Qatar
The government began talks with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) on Wednesday over the release of crucial funds, a process slowed by concerns about the pace of economic reforms in the country.
Pakistan has repeatedly sought international support for its economy, which has been hit by crippling national debt, galloping inflation and a plummeting rupee.
The talks are being held in the Qatari capital Doha, the Ministry of Finance said, and are expected to continue into next week.
A major sticking point is likely to be over costly subsidies — notably for fuel and electricity — and the finance minister said he wants the two sides to “find a middle ground”.
“The government will try to convince the IMF that for political stability purposes it is important to keep at least some of the subsidies,” said economist Shahrukh Wani.
“The IMF will possibly, rightly, say that these are unsustainable and they should be rolled back to make the trade and budget deficit manageable,” he added.
A $6 billion IMF bailout package signed by former prime minister Imran Khan in 2019 has never been fully implemented because his government reneged on agreements to cut or end some subsidies and to improve revenue and tax collection.
Islamabad has so far received $3bn, with the programme due to end later this year.
Officials are seeking an extension to the programme through to June 2023, as well as the release of the next tranche of $1bn.
Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch
Posted: 18 May 2022 17:01
by Manish_P
Dilbu ji presence on this thread has done it
PKR trading at 200 for 1 USD in the open market
Request Dilbu ji to put at least one post on this thread ever day

Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch
Posted: 18 May 2022 17:08
by g.sarkar
https://www.thenews.com.pk/latest/95873 ... pen-market
Rupee climbs over 200-mark against US dollar in open market
The local currency closes at Rs198.39 against the US dollar in the interbank market
By Web DeskMay 18, 2022
.....
Gautam
Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch
Posted: 18 May 2022 18:03
by Vips
I was estimating the Porki toilet paper at 225 by next year's elections (even with IMF/ADB sanctioning loans) but the way things are going looks like it will be 225 within week/s and 300 by next year.
Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch
Posted: 19 May 2022 05:48
by nachiket
Dilbu wrote:Do not phyrr your AKs yet biraders. TSP is meeting with IMF tomorrow and it is likely that they will get another lease of life. However it is just kicking the can down the road a little bit further and things are getting out of hand with each passing year.
That will happen eventually anyway whether it is now or a few weeks from now. But it is going to be fun regardless. IK has left behind the perfect landmine in those fuel subsidies. Chhota badmash is running around like a headless chicken now. If he removes the subsidies, prices will skyrocket and the abduls will blame him. If he doesn't, and they don't get bailed out in time the subsequent economic pain will again be blamed on him. In either case, his chances of winning the next election without interference by the uniformed jihadis is dim. If they don't interfere and IK comes back, he will be out for bloody revenge. If they do interfere and IK loses, PTI youthiyas will declare the election results a YYY conspiracy and brand chhota badmash a RAW agent and there will be chaos on the streets. The whole of next year promises to be popcorn worthy. Just hoping the pakis don't disappoint.
Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch
Posted: 19 May 2022 06:22
by g.sarkar
https://www.indiatoday.in/world/story/p ... 2022-05-18
Pak begins talks with IMF to resurrect enhanced bailout package to support its sagging economy
Pakistan initiated talks with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) on Wednesday to resurrect an enhanced bailout package to support its sagging economy.
Press Trust of India, Islamabad, May 18, 2022
Talks between Pakistan and the International Monetary Fund began on Wednesday to resurrect an enhanced bailout package to support the sagging economy of the cash-strapped country.
Pakistan has repeatedly been seeking international aid to support its failing economy.
The talks are being held in the Qatari capital Doha, the finance ministry tweeted. The negotiations are expected to continue into next week, it said.
Finance Minister Miftah Ismail, Minister of State Aisha Ghous Pasha, Finance Secretary Hamed Yaqoob Shaikh, State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) Acting Governor Murtaza Syed, Federal Board of Revenue (FBR) Chairman Asim Ahmad and other senior officials from the finance division are participating in the talks taking place virtually.
Ismail who travelled to Washington last month and met with the Fund officials, said that the effort was not just to revive the USD 6 billion IMF bailout package signed by former prime minister Imran Khan in 2019 but also to add another USD 2 billion to it.
The 2019 agreement has never been fully implemented due to the failure of Khan’s government to fulfil its commitments made with the fund, which so far has released only USD 3 billion under the agreed programme.
Ismail said he had also requested the global lender to extend the programme for one year till June 2023. Pakistan would also try to secure the release of the next tranche of USD 1 billion before the end of this financial year on June 30.
........
______________________________________________________________________________________________________________
https://www.indiatoday.in/top-stories/s ... 2022-04-25
Cash-strapped Pakistan, IMF agree to extend stalled bailout package, increase loan size to USD 8 billion
According to media reports, Pakistan and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) have agreed to extend the stalled bailout package and increase the loan size to USD 8 billion.
Press Trust of India , Islamabad, April 25, 2022
Cash-strapped Pakistan and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) have agreed to extend the stalled bailout package by up to one year and increase the loan size to USD 8 billion, giving breathing space to the new government led by Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif, a media report said on Sunday.
The understanding was reached after the crucial talks between Pakistan's newly-appointed Finance Minister Miftah Ismail and IMF Deputy Managing Director Antoinette Sayeh in Washington, The Express Tribune reported, citing sources.
Subject to the final modalities, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) has agreed that the program will be extended by another nine months to one year as against the original end-period of September 2022, while the size of the loan would be increased from the existing USD 6 billion to USD 8 billion, the paper reported, citing sources.
The IMF is expected to issue a statement on Monday on the development.
.....
Gautam
Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch
Posted: 19 May 2022 08:48
by Dilbu
Did IMF force TSP to implement some of the conditions or did pakis get away with promises to make ‘tough decisions’ as usual?
Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch
Posted: 19 May 2022 10:45
by yensoy
Looks like they are firmly behind the curve, promising to remove the subsidy which at this point I can only assume means they will reprice petroleum in line with the decreasing rupee - and not any real removal of subsidy. So if rupee has gone from 180 to 200, they will increase petrol prices by around 10%. The reality is that petrol prices have been mostly held steady in the rapidly depreciating PKR, meaning they are getting cheaper in USD all at a time when crude prices are through the roof. This too isn't going to end well for them.
Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch
Posted: 19 May 2022 11:13
by Dilbu
Govt commits cut in subsidies, imports
ISLAMABAD: Pakistan is set to move swiftly on reducing massive fuel and electricity subsidies and banning about 30 luxury imports to contain fiscal and trade deficits under a commitment given to the International Monetary Fund (IMF) to secure an economic bailout.
On the first day of the formal talks with the IMF mission led by Nathan Porter in Doha, Finance Minister Miftah Ismail virtually leading the country’s economic team cleared uncertainty on two counts — that the new coalition government would stay in office and
take tough decisions
{BRF is ahead of the curve in predicting this one}, undertake reforms committed in the original fund programme and complete structural benchmarks.
These sources said the government would be revising fuel and energy prices within days and impose a complete ban, instead of increasing duties, on a total of about 30 luxury items major among them vehicles and mobile phones besides some other no-so-big items to contain imports and thus external account. These announcements would be made shortly to progress talks towards the successful completion of the revised programme.
Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch
Posted: 19 May 2022 13:41
by Manish_P
Isn't that what they usually do... beg for loans, promising to do xyz 'reforms', take the loan, then put up excuses citing need to give relief to poor, revert back to as before, repeat begging for aid/loan waiver/new loans.
Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch
Posted: 19 May 2022 14:02
by Dilbu
US dollar hits double century, busts all previous records to breach Rs200-threshold in interbank
KARACHI: With the uncertainty over the revival of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) loan programme amid increasing political pressure on the government to announce snap polls, the Pakistani rupee slumped to a new historic low in the interbank market.
With a fresh decline of Rs1.81, or 0.91%, the local currency was trading at Rs200.20 against the greenback at 10:13am during intraday trade on Thursday, Tresmark reported.
They have made some kind of agreement with unkil and are hopeful that unkil will ask IMF to go easy with its munna now. What has unkil asked for in return?
“This time the IMF’s attitude towards the Pakistani delegation will be different because of the US. Pakistan now needs to focus on convincing them [IMF mission] that the country will increase revenues even if they decide against removing subsidies on petroleum products,” he maintained.
A day earlier, a US State Department spokesperson promised Pakistan strong US support for its efforts to restore the economy shortly after FM Bilawal Bhutto-Zardari arrived in New York for a series of meetings including a bilateral one with US Secretary of State Antony Blinken.
Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch
Posted: 19 May 2022 15:15
by rags
“This time the IMF’s attitude towards the Pakistani delegation will be different because of the US. Pakistan now needs to focus on convincing them [IMF mission] that the country will increase revenues even if they decide against removing subsidies on petroleum products,” he maintained.
A day earlier, a US State Department spokesperson promised Pakistan strong US support for its efforts to restore the economy shortly after FM Bilawal Bhutto-Zardari arrived in New York for a series of meetings including a bilateral one with US Secretary of State Antony Blinken.
This is absolutely a death wish for any economy. AFAIK, we are still paying for the petroleum subsidies handed out by Congressi govt between 2009 to 2014. Only shale saved us from a $250 oil. This time, the only way to bring down prices is a deep depression/recession. Or let Venezuela and Iran produce for short term relief.
Pakis are of-course, a symptom of the problem of having too many civilization-al enemies.it appears the going rate to keep this enterprise going is at $10 to $15 billion a year. Divided amongst OIC, China, US & Europe (works out to $3 Bil per). Still a decent deal. Hence the supreme self-confidence of the "Begging brigade" of Paki Army.
Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch
Posted: 19 May 2022 19:51
by Dilbu
Rupee lost 4,100pc value against dollar in 50 years
LAHORE: The parity of the Pakistani rupee versus the American dollar has worsened more than 4,100 percent from just Rs4.76 exactly 50 years ago, on May 1972, to a whopping Rs200 on May 18, 2022, hence compounding country’s economic miseries, research and calculations showed. On the contrary, in neighboring India, the country’s rupee deteriorated 898.59 percent during the last half a century under review from Indian Rs7.59 in May 1972 to Indian Rs77.59 on May 18, 2022.
Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch
Posted: 19 May 2022 22:30
by Thakur_B
AoA. Standing ovation for the boiz.
Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch
Posted: 20 May 2022 00:23
by S_Madhukar
Looks like PKR will have to be pegged to INR to stop its slide … 1 PKR = 10 Indian Paisa … Laahori monetary paalicy also observes Baki golden ratio of 1:10 … calling it Dimrans Naya Rupiah

Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch
Posted: 20 May 2022 02:46
by g.sarkar
Madhukarji, probably they will opt for the easier solution of printing more Indian Rupees.
Gautam
Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch
Posted: 20 May 2022 04:26
by athulya
Shehbaz Sharif , by adopting import bans - is essentially going to increase the black market (the art of which the Army has perfected to a T), the CAD by their admission is gonna get affected by $500 million/month. Also Im not sure who has advised them that switching from import to smuggling affects Current account deficit (it doesnt). It will also help them lose out on import duties and remittances / biradders will resort to hawala/hundi (which again bakis have perfected to a t.)
The only thing which will stop the free fall of Pkr-USD is the IMF ( which it will eventually dammit

)
On top of that , Pakis are shrieking with joy about so called 5-6 % gdp and infact arguing about decimals. It's all on borrowed money , monies which need to be payed back with none available to pay it back with (at the moment)
Miftah Ismail ( the current finance minister) runs a confectionary company with his brothers Muhammad and Maqsood --- Ismail Industries Limited - which deals in confectionery and snack foods
https://archive.pakistantoday.com.pk/20 ... ah-ismail/
Guess what - choclates & confectionery are also banned from import
Edit : Found this link on the bird app
https://www.pbs.gov.pk/sites/default/fi ... 020-21.txt
Intresting perspective on what these guys import (majority of it is not banned ofcourse)
Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch
Posted: 20 May 2022 04:57
by RCase
Since the Paki Fauj is the biggest consumer of the budget, can the IMF put requirements that Pakistan should slash its defense spending for more bums, missiles and aircraft. Despite their economy tanking, they acquired the J-20 from iron-brother. Where is the money coming from?
Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch
Posted: 20 May 2022 05:05
by Shankas
athulya ji and others
Do you know where I can find a similar link for India.
I am looking for a list of products that India imports
Thank you.
Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch
Posted: 20 May 2022 08:06
by Atmavik
Thakur_B wrote:
AoA. Standing ovation for the boiz.
AoA indeed...
Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch
Posted: 20 May 2022 16:00
by Dilbu
Rupee further weakens US against dollar in interbank market
KARACHI: The Pakistani rupee depreciated further against the US dollar in the interbank market on Friday and was being traded at Rs201 amid concerns over the pace of its fall and a lack of support from the central bank
According to the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP), the rupee, for the first time in the history of Pakistan, closed at Rs200 on Thursday.
Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch
Posted: 20 May 2022 16:11
by Dilbu
Govt agrees to implement IMF demands
ISLAMABAD: In a nerve-wracking development, the incumbent government, after much deliberations, has finally agreed to implement most of the demands of the International Monetary Fund (IMF), raising the possibility of the country “coming back on track economically” and receiving the next IMF loan tranche.
Pakistani authorities have agreed to cut subsidies and the timeframe for privatisation.
Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch
Posted: 20 May 2022 16:13
by stephen
RCase wrote:Since the Paki Fauj is the biggest consumer of the budget, can the IMF put requirements that Pakistan should slash its defense spending for more bums, missiles and aircraft. Despite their economy tanking, they acquired the J-20 from iron-brother. Where is the money coming from?
Just conducting Balakot 2 would have taken the PKR to 400 in a few days and the Paki sena to scrap the bottom of the putrid pool of paki economy. The Paki sena parallel economy would have also been severely dented. This was the right time to put pressure in the LoC. Guess we will be waiting for them to restart hostilities when things start getting better for them

Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch
Posted: 20 May 2022 16:27
by athulya
Shankas wrote:
athulya ji and others
Do you know where I can find a similar link for India.
I am looking for a list of products that India imports
Thank you.
https://tradestat.commerce.gov.in/eidb/default.asp
U can Select Commodity-wise imports and then All Commodities in the input form ( and also has options to select Rs / USD to display.)