Levant crisis - III

habal · Post by **habal** » 19 Dec 2016 11:23

this is happening in 2017 and not 2013. So be surprised.
looks like preparations for twin front strategy, one hot front and one holding operation in Idlib or near al-bab.

News is that the Syrian army reserves are being mobilized to double the size of the army.

habal · Post by **habal** » 19 Dec 2016 11:24

Gen Qasim Soleimani of IRGC caught strolling in aleppo.

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 19 Dec 2016 11:28

the iranians do not seem to have deployed their best units in syria but more like militias attached to lebanese hezbollah, same way tier1 PMU is in iraq while second strings have been sent to gain experience in syria. but by their presence in low-threat areas they have freed up more seasoned local units to take part in serious fights like aleppo. so a kind of foreign NDF if you will and a cementing of political and religious unity along the "shia crescent" all the way to afghani volunteers.

turkey likewise has staffed its militias with volunteers and adventurers from most of the CAR states which are turkic people. chechens too , who can move across georgia which has poor relations with russia. uighurs a section has abandoned china and seek a new life whether in turkey or in lands that turkey captures for them.

the two biggest formations in the sunni kabila - TSP and Indonesia have not committed much so far. both are fighting internal problems and have no exportable surplus of fighters except to nearby targets like India. and neither they have $$ and NATO political cover enjoyed by the GCC.

nigeria has a huge population, probably sunni(?) and its waging its own war on boko haram.

that leaves Egypt and despite being primarily sunni it has sided with the shia alliance

habal · Post by **habal** » 19 Dec 2016 11:38

turks are in a unique position. They do not trust their own military.
there is more trust in militias and police intelligence and armed police.

wonderful situation, couldn't have happened to a sweeter country.

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 19 Dec 2016 11:43

in parallel erdoganist mobs shouting takbir have burned and ransacked many offices of the kurdish political party HDP (or HKP?) which is about the only kurd party in the political spectrum, rest are underground militants like PKK. several of their leaders had already been jailed and sentenced to long terms in the last few months of witch hunts against "extremists" (and ofcourse Gulenists).

afaik apart from PKK there is one more kurdish military formation called TAP or TKK (starts with T) that also does these periodic car bomb things and attacks isolated outposts of the army.

the Alevis (whose faith seems related to the Alawites of syria) seem caught in the middle between the Kurds (who are poorer with higher pop growth) and the Tabkir shouting erdogani sunnis. they seem equivalent of our sikular middle class, wringing their hands as mobs tear through the streets. they are good in numbers but seem to be low on morale, mobilization and self-preservation.

wiki: total pop of turkey is 75 mil so alevis are 30%

Academics suggest the Alevi population may be from 15 to 20 million, while the Alevi-Bektaşi Federation claims that there are around 25 million[309][310] and according to Aksiyon magazine, the number of Shiite Twelvers (excluding Alevis) is 3 million (4.2 percent).[311] Under the Sunni Islamist government of the Justice and Development Party (AKP) and Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, an increasing discrimination against and persecution of the Alevi minority has begun

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 19 Dec 2016 11:45

we should spend more cycles studying the internal political , military and social scene in turkey. Istanbul seems to host a combustible mix of the most westernized people (women do not wear hijab at all , drink openly, bare flesh etc) and street fighting, hard hitting AKP mobs who can mobilize quickly as seen in the coup. mosques blared takbir and AoA all night to get these "troops" all worked up and streaming out into the streets from the old colonies.

some of the kurdish border towns like cizre are worse than Jobar ruins after the turkish police, greywolves and army ravaged them hunting the pkk.

habal · Post by **habal** » 19 Dec 2016 11:50

From what I studied, the Alevis are the real warrior turks from central asia, kara-turk types who raised commanders like Taimur, babur etc. Like chingiz khan they believed in some nature worship tengdi type religion but when Islam started spreading they accepted 'the school of ali' (now this 'school of ali' thing is an excuse to keep a distance from full blown mainstream islam, and that is reason for sunni irritation with these groups)The oghuz-turks (western turks) who are like azeris and their miscegenated populations form the rest. If oghuz-turks say that they are the real turks, then that would be wrong because they heavily integrated with east euro janissaries and greeks and circassians. The real turks are the alevis.

lol, what a predicament to have.

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 19 Dec 2016 12:03

reminds of the kolkata origin bengali bhadralok now rudely shoved aside from any influence or power by the raging energetic green mobs of the small towns and rural areas. harvard, jadavpur and presidency college, conoiessurs of science and literature, producer of intellectual giants.... but no say in the future of shonar bangla lol.
a tabla, a harmonium, a bottle of old monk and some baithak in far away shores outside India

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 19 Dec 2016 13:11

al masdar news:

BEIRUT, LEBANON (6:10 A.M.) - The Syrian Arab Army (SAA) issued a nationwide call for military reserves to return to active duty on Sunday, marking the first time since 1973 that a campaign of this size has been launched by the High Command.

Many of the reservists have had military training in the past and do not need to be inducted in the Syrian Arab Army, which makes their deployment to the front-lines much less stressful.

The call for the reservists comes just days after the Syrian Arab Army announced the conclusion of their east Aleppo military operations after nearly 6 weeks of fierce battles with the jihadist rebels.

The reservists will likely be deployed to the captured areas of eastern Aleppo and western Damascus; this will allow for a large number of Syrian Arab Army soldiers that participated in the aforementioned battles to be redeployed to another volatile front.

While the number of reservists has not been revealed yet by the Syrian Arab Army's High Command, the total is expected to rival the 1973 sum.

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 19 Dec 2016 13:42

CBS News
4 gunmen killed in deadly attack on Jordanian police, officials say
CBS News - ‎4 hours ago‎
KARAK, Jordan -- Gunmen assaulted Jordanian police in a series of attacks Sunday, including at a Crusader castle popular with tourists, killing seven officers, two local civilians and a woman visiting from Canada, officials said.

habal · Post by **habal** » 19 Dec 2016 13:44

Arab Spring in Jordan ?

new move by the establishment to open southern front of head choppers maybe. Let us see if police & military have been compromised.

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 19 Dec 2016 13:45

AQ is very active in Sinai peninsula too...adjacent to jordan. and jordan is adjacent to KSA.

Bhurishravas · Post by **Bhurishravas** » 19 Dec 2016 14:25

afaik apart from PKK there is one more kurdish military formation called TAP or TKK (starts with T) that also does these periodic car bomb things and attacks isolated outposts of the army.

It is TAK ; Kurdistan Freedom Falcons, or Teyrenbazen Azadiya Kurdistan (TAK).
It is not a military formation.
In fact, very little is known about it. It is quite possible that Erdoganists are attributing ISIS attacks to TAK to discredit the kurds.

Bhurishravas · Post by **Bhurishravas** » 19 Dec 2016 14:31

dnivas wrote:Can we just ban this dunce and get it over with. All he does is crib . He does not want to believe tweiiter accounts that Habal and Singha have been quoting for more than a few years now. What those accounts have been "claiming" is now fact

His beloved NYT, Wapo, BBC have been discredited since 2001. They are being discredited on a daily basis and yet he persist with his snide remarks

Your butt is hurting too bad dude. You need to apply some medicine there.

Bhurishravas · Post by **Bhurishravas** » 19 Dec 2016 14:39

Y. Kanan wrote:But is it not logical to conclude, that for the foreseeable future, the Russian-led "Shia bloc" is our ally of convenience? Is it not also true that the "Shia bloc" for lack of a better term is more secular or modern in their worldview? Note the support the Russians/Syrian gov.t have been getting from the Egyptian govt and generally enjoying from moderates in the Arab world, while the US/GCC bloc is all Wahabbi/Salafi types -the same ideology at war with us for the last 40+ years.So why should any patriotic Indian root for that side? I have no problems with muslims killing muslims but why pick the "badder" muslims over the "less bad" ones? Some on this forum seem all too eager to swallow the US narrative which even their own citizens don't believe anymore. Fascinating.

Neither the shia nor the sunni bloc is our ally. There is a breach in the GCC-Paki relationship after pakis refused to help in Yemen. The hastily arranged Modi visit to UAE was for a reason. Miilions of Indians work in Gulf kingdoms. And Iran didnt allow dynamites to be transported from India to Afghanistan for Salma dam construction through Chhabahar. India would do well to stay neutral.
Some on this forum lack the grey matter or are too naive.

IndraD · Post by **IndraD** » 19 Dec 2016 15:04

Bhurishravas wrote:
dnivas wrote:Can we just ban this dunce and get it over with. All he does is crib . He does not want to believe tweiiter accounts that Habal and Singha have been quoting for more than a few years now. What those accounts have been "claiming" is now fact

His beloved NYT, Wapo, BBC have been discredited since 2001. They are being discredited on a daily basis and yet he persist with his snide remarks
Your butt is hurting too bad dude. You need to apply some medicine there.

BS ji use same vernaculars on thread on Indian political drama etc and you will meet 72 houris in one day , Singha ji has been magnanimous !

IndraD · Post by **IndraD** » 19 Dec 2016 15:06

Evacuation has resumed in East Aleppo and Alabed Baana has been evacuated to Idlib: here she is seen with father

Gyan · Post by **Gyan** » 19 Dec 2016 15:07

Assad cannot win completely without massive reinforcements. The only way is that Iraqis win Mosul, which will free up the Shia Militias to move across to Syria. Iran and Iraq might indulge in extreme Sunni Repression to maintain peace. In long term, peace will only come by fall of GCC monarchies. I wonder, what is USA long term plan?

IndraD · Post by **IndraD** » 19 Dec 2016 15:17

I wonder if US knows what is their long term plan ^

Bhurishravas · Post by **Bhurishravas** » 19 Dec 2016 15:18

USA has been pushed out of Syria & Iraq game by all the actors. Erdogan, Putin, Iran and Iraq. Noone wants them. That is what you get for acting too smart.
IMHO, Erdogan has played the smartest game. Changing sides at right times. Massaging the right egos.
Although the Kurdish insurgency might be a little too much for him. But if he gets his way with changing the constitution, he might be there till 2029. Turkey can go to hell. Who cares.

habal · Post by **habal** » 19 Dec 2016 15:20

USA long term plan stands exposed like emperor stands naked. Their main plan was to terrorize the rest of the world into submission. Their entire diplomacy was based on the capability to execute regime-change and direct terror into those who were not allies. India has long been victim of their policies. Today we have johny-come-latelies who advise/chide/provoke us into blindly going to US camp. While Indians have had no malice for US, they have been very strong players behind the curtains in fomenting terror policies of Pakistan and directing them towards India.

Look how out-of-depth Pakistan is today, when they do not have blessings of their main mentors to do their usual shock&awe terror activities anymore.

USA has lost that aura of terror which they had built around themselves. This was the same aura or terror used by Mssrs, Ronal Regan/George Bush/Bill Clinton/Bush Jr/Obama to take leaders aside during global conferences and 'have a word with them' on how they would suffer consequences if they do not comply.

It is good that this house of terror has begun to crack, not a minute too late for something like this to have happened.

IndraD · Post by **IndraD** » 19 Dec 2016 15:25

US has accepted that operation inherent resolve (op to liberate Mosul) is progressing far slower than expected :

Bhurishravas · Post by **Bhurishravas** » 19 Dec 2016 15:31

^^ Another emotional diatribe.
USA being pushed out is not necessarily bad for US. West Asia is a mess. US has been stupidly throwing its resources in the cesspit. It continues to have the strongest dog in the region still. Israel, if needed.
USA can now focus on its domestic issues and let the Sunnis, Shias, Kurds and alewis and Turks and all others kill each other for next decade or so. The bigger issue is Central Asia. Brezinsky`s chessboard. If the Turks and the Russkies and the chinese combine there, US has a challenge on hand.
But going by history and the temperament of dictators and totalitarian states, there will be more problems than synergies.
USA is free to focus on its economy and start undercutting China now that it is free from its useless military engagements.

IndraD · Post by **IndraD** » 19 Dec 2016 15:36

more balanced coverage of Aleppo appearing on BBC etc now a days :

Aleppo battle: Rebels burn Syria evacuation buses http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-38358177

habal · Post by **habal** » 19 Dec 2016 15:38

General Wesley Clark:
Because I had been through the Pentagon right after 9/11. About ten days after 9/11, I went through the Pentagon and I saw Secretary Rumsfeld and Deputy Secretary Wolfowitz. I went downstairs just to say hello to some of the people on the Joint Staff who used to work for me, and one of the generals called me in. He said, "Sir, you've got to come in and talk to me a second." I said, "Well, you're too busy." He said, "No, no." He says, "We've made the decision we're going to war with Iraq." This was on or about the 20th of September. I said, "We're going to war with Iraq? Why?" He said, "I don't know." He said, "I guess they don't know what else to do." So I said, "Well, did they find some information connecting Saddam to al-Qaeda?" He said, "No, no." He says, "There's nothing new that way. They just made the decision to go to war with Iraq." He said, "I guess it's like we don't know what to do about terrorists, but we've got a good military and we can take down governments." And he said, "I guess if the only tool you have is a hammer, every problem has to look like a nail."

So I came back to see him a few weeks later, and by that time we were bombing in Afghanistan. I said, "Are we still going to war with Iraq?" And he said, "Oh, it's worse than that." He reached over on his desk. He picked up a piece of paper. And he said, "I just got this down from upstairs" -- meaning the Secretary of Defense's office -- "today." And he said, "This is a memo that describes how we're going to take out seven countries in five years, starting with Iraq, and then Syria, Lebanon, Libya, Somalia, Sudan and, finishing off, Iran." I said, "Is it classified?" He said, "Yes, sir." I said, "Well, don't show it to me." And I saw him a year or so ago, and I said, "You remember that?" He said, "Sir, I didn't show you that memo! I didn't show it to you!"

IndraD · Post by **IndraD** » 19 Dec 2016 15:55

what could have been the rationale behind hand picking these seven countries !! ^

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 19 Dec 2016 16:01

https://twitter.com/EHSANI22/status/810509117181882368

jihadi troops slogan shouting infront of burning buses

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 19 Dec 2016 16:06

no US POTUS , incl DT will be allowed by the military industrial complex to reduce foreign bases and presence and stop the meddling and foreign wars.
he has 3 former generals in his team including one whose dream is to smash Iran, so no chance of US withdrawing from the middle east to focus on economy and jobs. $1000 billion a year of budget is on the line. easy sugar for lockheed, boeing and their millions of subcontractors.
GCC pays protection money - the bases like djibouti, 5th fleet in bahrain, al udeid and thumrait airbases are some of the largest operations.

so these wars and reshaping of things will muddle along, with nobody having a clear idea of the final state. there is no final state (unlike fukuyamas claims in his book) but just endless ups and downs.

India needs to improve indigenization and develop as much composite national power as possible on all fronts. nobody is our permanent friend.

Bhurishravas · Post by **Bhurishravas** » 19 Dec 2016 16:14

Despite the chemical weapons rhetoric, Obama did manage to fend off war hawks in Washington and not intervene militarily in Syria. The pressure was enormous on him then. So POTUS is not that toothless.
It depends on the president to stand up and have the foresight to see things or act stupid like George Bush 2 and dive headlong into mess. Remains to be seen how the future will unfold, but US being pushed out from west asia is not necessarily bad for US if the future administrations can take sane decisions.

IndraD · Post by **IndraD** » 19 Dec 2016 16:30

Yet Ombaba authorised sale of over $100 billion arms to Saudi .

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 19 Dec 2016 16:59

https://mobile.twitter.com/sayed_ridha/ ... 76/photo/3

The first set of buses from fuah and kufraya has arrived in aleppo...to a honour guard

habal · Post by **habal** » 19 Dec 2016 17:03

glad to see atleast some get out of that snake pit

habal · Post by **habal** » 19 Dec 2016 17:08

More Than 100 US-UK-Israeli-French-Turkish Advisers Were Allowed to Leave Aleppo.
https://southfront.org/new-data-more-th ... um=twitter

My report has only the numbers and nationalities…and the news that they were not really “captured” but were allowed out as part of a deal between all parties involved. You see the Moroccans are missing in these numbers.

No. of American officers is 22
British 16
French 21
Israeli 7
Turkish 62

The list of 14 names leaked by a Syrian MP are not the real names of those officers, they are cover names; it is standard practice to use a fake ID when serving in a secret op. This is a leak that MSM is ignoring, as they have about all stories of captured foreign officers in Syria. But then Syria has been quiet, also.

From what we can see so far, getting these foreign officers out was rolled into the ceasefire/evacuation deal to get the jihadis out in order to prevent further Syrian casualties and more damage; furthermore, Syria and Russia just wanted to get it over with. The Russians have already moved for a full and immediate ceasefire and the start of all-party political talks.

habal · Post by **habal** » 19 Dec 2016 17:18

In the fog of war, one can never take any report at face value. But Kerry's frantic 'meetings' with Lavrov and the agreements they reached align me to the conclusion that there would have been video evidences, mugshots, id cards, of quite some many NATO advisors taken by the pro-govt forces and/or the Russians and as per agreement with the Russians, all of them were then allowed to leave town.

the 'leak' of capture of NATO advisors that was announced before was thus a public warning to desist from mischief and to convince the opposition that their room for manoeuvre is limited. I think so many pretend 'Saudis' in the list was face saving gesture towards NATO members whom Russians didn't want to push too far down the road and humiliate their govts before their public. This is my best guess.

habal · Post by **habal** » 19 Dec 2016 17:23

The situation around the T4 airbase seems to have settled down with Sharifa now back under SAA control. Wondering if whether the SAA can push on to Palmyra or stay put and have to prioritize on other objectives in the short term.

Bhurishravas · Post by **Bhurishravas** » 19 Dec 2016 17:36

When Russian soldiers are captured in Ukraine, they are paraded on all media channels.
When `NATO officers` are captured, everyone including Assad and Putin help Washington hide their identities.
Really?!

IndraD · Post by **IndraD** » 19 Dec 2016 17:45

If this has evaded attention:
Russian FSB has been eliminating Chechen leaders and militants hiding in Middle east in cold blood recently. Turkey has diluted investigations and letting Moscow do its job.

Bhurishravas · Post by **Bhurishravas** » 19 Dec 2016 18:20

Turkey has not diluted investigations. In fact they arrested one of the Chchen fellas. When he came for the second time for his hitjob. Yuri Asiminov, his name, if my memory serves correct.

JE Menon · Post by **JE Menon** » 19 Dec 2016 18:26

http://swarajyamag.com/world/what-the-r ... eppo-means

A take on the situation in Syria and implications

Bhurishravas · Post by **Bhurishravas** » 19 Dec 2016 18:30

http://www.bbc.com/news/magazine-38294204

Two Russians landed at Istanbul airport, travelling under the names Alexander Smirnov and Yury Anisimov, and were then followed by Turkish police and intelligence.

Before they could do any harm, though, the two men were arrested by Turkish police and taken to a high-security prison, where they were held in connection with Edelgiriev's murder.