Bharat Rakshak

A-o-a, dollar is being shown its place with superior numbers bought into play from PKR. 10 Tanzeems must be sharing one goat, same bacha-bazi gift card, one daily ak-phyr and one bong-hit per azan. Gora-huzoors seem to have played a tricky after taking them off FATF etc

As a sea-locked, geo-economic poor-power, India must be shaking at the rise of PKR

Looks like there is an agreement between IMF and Paki Government to let PKR depreciate to a large number first.

Dollar hits record Rs212 as IMF deal delay weighs heavy on rupee

The US dollar continued to set new records on Tuesday as it rose to Rs212 against the local currency during early morning trade in the interbank market.

According to the Forex Association of Pakistan (FAP), the rupee depreciated by over Rs2 to reach an all-time low of Rs212 against the dollar from Monday's close of Rs209.96. Yesterday, the greenback appreciated by a sharp Rs1.21 — a trend persisting for over a week now.

I am sure there is a tacit understanding between IMF and Paki government to delay the IMF deal and let the PKR slide to a mutually acceptable rate that they believe is stable. Let it slide in one go and than let IMF come with a package. The package could be higher than $6bn.

The objective is that with FATF grey listing removed and PKR depreciated considerably, Paki exports will pick up. Imports are currently restricted, oil/coal/gas increases are passed to the masses so eventually the trade deficit will improve.

Pakistani Rupee Asia's worst-performing currency during 2022

Pakistani Rupee has been Asia's worst-performing currency in 2022 with a fall of nearly 16.5% against the US Dollar that put it at the bottom of a basket of 13 peers, including the Japanese Yen, South Korean Won, and Bangladesh Taka.

The Pakistani currency was closely followed by the yen (15% decrease), won (8.1%) and the taka (7.22%), data compiled by Business Recorder showed. Asia's best – currencies that lost the least value against the USD – were the Hong Kong Dollar, Singapore Dollar, and the Indonesian Rupiah.

CalvinH wrote:I am sure there is a tacit understanding between IMF and Paki government to delay the IMF deal and let the PKR slide to a mutually acceptable rate that they believe is stable. Let it slide in one go and than let IMF come with a package. The package could be higher than $6bn.

The objective is that with FATF grey listing removed and PKR depreciated considerably, Paki exports will pick up. Imports are currently restricted, oil/coal/gas increases are passed to the masses so eventually the trade deficit will improve.

How will their exports improve when most of their inputs are imported, hence any benefits will largely be cancelled out. They also have among the highest power generation costs in the developing world, making their production highly noncompetitive.

Pakis top 10 Exports constituting 76.2% of the total exports. Not much inputs here except for electricity or Fertilizer.

Miscellaneous textiles, worn clothing: US$5.5 billion (19.1% of total exports)
Knit or crochet clothing, accessories: $4.5 billion (15.6%)
Cotton: $3.4 billion (11.8%)
Clothing, accessories (not knit or crochet): $3.4 billion (11.8%)
Cereals: $2.3 billion (7.8%)
Copper: $818.3 million (2.8%)
Leather/animal gut articles: $697.6 million (2.4%)
Fruits, nuts: $492.9 million (1.7%)
Salt, sulphur, stone, cement: $484.7 million (1.7%)
Optical, technical, medical apparatus: $437 million (1.5%)

In recent years they have been importing cotton. The textile industry that totals about 35% of their exports depends on imported raw materials, machinery and high cost power that also is generated by imported coal and oil. And in recent years they have also been a net importer of cereals. The only thing that they have locally to export in any significant manner is leather goods (and footballs etc), rock salt, and whatever Afghan produce is smuggled out via Pakistan.

Optical, technical, medical apparatus: $437 million (1.5%)

I believe GOI should incentivize players in India to make this low tech stuff by giving them tax breaks etc. Most of this is done via child labor in Pakistan and if GOI helps with the setup, automating its manufacture in India will be higher quality and competitive.

https://www.dawn.com/news/1695991/sbp-c ... t-dried-up

The State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) on Tuesday dismissed reports claiming that its foreign exchange reserves had "dried up", and clarified that neither the country's banks had run out of US dollars nor the central bank had stopped import payments.

Denial means exactly the opposite is happening.

A-o-A IMF deal secured...well 'almost'.. and the awaam has to pay a lot more for it though

Yawn - ‘Lifeline’ IMF deal secured

In a breakthrough, Pakistan and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) on Tuesday night reached an understanding on the federal budget for 2022-23, leading to revival of the extended fund facility (EFF) after authorities committed to generate Rs436 billion more taxes and increase petroleum levy gradually up to Rs 50 per litre.

...

The IMF mission will finalise monetary targets with the State Bank over the next couple of days and, in the meantime, share the draft of a Memorandum of Economic and Financial Policy (MEFP).

The MEFP would also contain certain prior actions that would be necessary for implementation before the IMF board takes up Pakistan’s case for approval and the subsequent disbursement of about $1 bn next month.

Top government sources said that to win over the IMF mission, the Pakistani side had agreed to start charging on all POL products a petroleum development levy which will be gradually increased by Rs5 per month to reach a maximum of Rs 50.

In yet another retreat , the government also agreed to impose 1 pc poverty tax on firms earning Rs 150 million, 2 pc on those earning Rs 200m, 3 pc on over Rs 250m and 4 pc on Rs 300m above. In the original budget, the government had set a 2 pc poverty tax only on those earning Rs 300m and above.

The government also agreed to do away with provisions for additional salaries and pensions, for which Rs 200 bn had been set aside as block allocation. Instead, a separate allocation of contingencies had been made but that would be strictly meant for emergencies likes floods and earthquake so that amount remains unspent. (this would exclude the pensions of the Fauj of course)

CalvinH wrote:Looks like there is an agreement between IMF and Paki Government to let PKR depreciate to a large number first.

That is a 30% devaluation in a short period. Where does that leave their GDP per-capita in USD? Even ignoring the fact that they don't count their population growth (the last census was 2 decades ago and nobody knows their real population numbers) wouldn't this more than nullify any growth that they might have had?

Somalia expects to see a rush for its borders.

Vips wrote:Pakistan may cede Gilgit Baltistan to China to pay off its mounting debts: Report

Why would China need GB? In any case the money will go to fund Fauj, its weapons and corner plots. Not to reduce the debt.

At this time US is winning in Pakistan. Chinese will be lucky if they can get the payments back on the Seepack loans..

These kinds of news snippets are put out periodically in an attempt to blackmail various parties.

Of course. Any such move may invite a first strike by India.

CalvinH wrote:

Vips wrote:Pakistan may cede Gilgit Baltistan to China to pay off its mounting debts: Report

Why would China need GB? In any case the money will go to fund Fauj, its weapons and corner plots. Not to reduce the debt.

At this time US is winning in Pakistan. Chinese will be lucky if they can get the payments back on the Seepack loans..

Just today $2.3 Billion loan was given by China to Porkistan. Add this to the billions of $ already owed by the pakis. Chinese are no fools to give money for free (eg Sudan, Sri Lanka, Maldives and Ethiopia). They would have certainly asked for substantial collateral before lending to Porkistan. The Pakis have nothing to lose if they have mortgaged and have to even give G-B to the Chinese for some free money.

Once Pakistan sacrifices a couple of black goats, their economic stress will be over, Insha'Allah.
Gautam

g.sarkar wrote:Once Pakistan sacrifices a couple of black goats, their economic stress will be over, Insha'Allah.
Gautam

^ 3 black goats. Please read the report on the goats with Imran. His plan was to sacrifice the goats for the eCONomy of Bakistan, but then they had to be repurposed to get the PM ship back, but then it might now have been repurposed for BB.

So yes, only if they can get to sacrifice the goats.

sanjaykumar wrote:Of course. Any such move may invite a first strike by India.

Why sir? Will it not be a good idea for Bakistan to cede territories? Some to Cheen, some to Afghanistan and some to Iran for oil? Particularly for territory ceded to Cheen, it will help for Cheen to bring the Uighur model of re-development to POK. We can send some from Cashmere as well to help with re-development effort.

sanjaykumar wrote:Of course. Any such move may invite a first strike by India.

Yes sirji, the aim is to get reaction from India. Stroke on Ego.

This is not the first time they had done it and definitely won't be the last.

However, had India reacted, Chinki would have been in a pinch!! Especially with Xi's term near it's end and with little on no chance to stay in power, he would be forced to act on his ego... Thus benefitting Paki in one way or another....

We ignored, but I am sure everyone might have gotten internal memo to brush up on old plans if something might really happen

Vips wrote:

CalvinH wrote:
Why would China need GB? In any case the money will go to fund Fauj, its weapons and corner plots. Not to reduce the debt.

At this time US is winning in Pakistan. Chinese will be lucky if they can get the payments back on the Seepack loans..

Just today $2.3 Billion loan was given by China to Porkistan. Add this to the billions of $ already owed by the pakis. Chinese are no fools to give money for free (eg Sudan, Sri Lanka, Maldives and Ethiopia). They would have certainly asked for substantial collateral before lending to Porkistan. The Pakis have nothing to lose if they have mortgaged and have to even give G-B to the Chinese for some free money.

Maybe you are right, maybe you are wrong too...

Coming to Chinese loans, the deal was finalized long back, and the string was Paki getting IMF loan.

Coming to Collateral, Chinese night have definitely asked for something.

Was it GB? I am not sure, I don't think Chinki would dare to miscalculated again. They also know about the cost and losses of maintaining huge army at LAC, they wouldn't want to face wrath of Indian Armed Forces by trying to occupy GB

For the new members at BRF:
https://www.npr.org/sections/goatsandso ... ni-airport
Black Goat Is Sacrificed On Tarmac Of Pakistani Airport
Marc Silver, December 19, 2016
.....
Gautam
This is the same PIA, where pilot license is optional.

disha wrote:

sanjaykumar wrote:Of course. Any such move may invite a first strike by India.

Why sir? Will it not be a good idea for Bakistan to cede territories? Some to Cheen, some to Afghanistan and some to Iran for oil? Particularly for territory ceded to Cheen, it will help for Cheen to bring the Uighur model of re-development to POK. We can send some from Cashmere as well to help with re-development effort.

Yep. I ham happy to burn my house to teach a good lesson to mice. One shitland is better then 3 shitlands.

disha wrote:

sanjaykumar wrote:Of course. Any such move may invite a first strike by India.

Why sir? Will it not be a good idea for Bakistan to cede territories? Some to Cheen, some to Afghanistan and some to Iran for oil? Particularly for territory ceded to Cheen, it will help for Cheen to bring the Uighur model of re-development to POK. We can send some from Cashmere as well to help with re-development effort.

What if the cheeni were to, oh so innocently, develop an "international" airport in the POK for "tourism" purposes and then like hambanthota port that they militarised, slowly start to base military aircraft and long range missiles there and a little later put in a S-400 system to protect that "international" airport for "tourism" from the threat of "terrorists".

This same S-400 system will likely cover the whole of pukestan, quite by a "happy coincidence" that no one (especially the cheeni + paki) had thought of.

is that too far fetched for you, the thought of the cheeni insisting on having a huge number of strike aircraft in hardened aircraft shelters in "their" air force base + an active and very sophisticated missile defence system positioned almost in the heart of India and that too on territory that is legitimately claimed by India

And as far as ladakh is concerned, they have got you completely boxed in, your testicles in their vice.

This POK lease plan was always in the works, only our planners were/are, as usual, looking the wrong way, with b@!!le$$ Indian thinktankis hosting their mediocre and mundane kitty party "strategic seminars" and "security conferences" with senior defence management fully occupied and intent only on beating the idea of the CDS to death.

A-o-A Krachi Electricity partnered owned by Arap forefather seeks massive raise from prosperous bakis, for ensuring non-supply till Chinese father adopts it.

Yawn - KE seeks massive Rs11.34 hike in monthly fuel cost adjustment

A group of leading Saudi and Kuwaiti investors of K-Electric Ltd had a busy day on Thursday lobbying with top government functionaries to end the impasse over hundreds of billions of rupees worth of unsettled claims and counter claims as the Karachi-based power utility sought an unprecedented Rs11.34 per unit increase in its monthly fuel cost adjustment.

The non-settlement of financial claims on K-Electric by the government-owned electricity and fuel suppliers and vice versa has been hampering the transfer of the troubled private power utility to Shanghai Electric of China, which reached a deal with K-Electric’s majority shareholders in 2016 to buy over 66 per cent of its shares for $1.77 billion.

Informed sources said Prime Minister Sharif asked the energy sector task force led by former premier Shahid Khaqan Abbasi to ensure the resolution of all outstanding issues pertaining to K-Electric within three months. The company has over Rs 400 bn of payables to the Central Power Purchasing Agency and over Rs 200bn to Sui Southern Gas Company Ltd and has similar claims of receivables against the federal and provincial government entities.

PSX crashes after PM Shehbaz announces 'super tax' on industries

The Pakistan Stock Exchange (PSX) crashed on Friday minutes after Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif announced a 10 per cent tax on large-scale industries.

The bourse stayed flat until two hours after the opening bell. However, at 11:40am, the market witnessed a steep dip with the KSE-100 losing 1,598 points and sinking to 41,100. At 12pm, the benchmark KSE-100 index was down 2,053 points or 4.8pc.

Earlier today, the prime minister took the nation into confidence over the budget decisions and announced a "super tax" on large-scale industries including cement, steel, sugar, oil and gas, fertilisers, LNG terminals, textile, banking, automobile, chemicals, beverages and cigarettes.

High net worth individuals will also be subject to a "poverty alleviation tax". Those whose annual income exceeds Rs150 million will be subject to 1pc tax; for Rs200 million, 2pc; Rs250 million, 3pc; and Rs300 million will be taxed 4pc of their income.

Ahsan Mehanti of the Arif Habib Corporation concurred. "PSX witnessed massive pressure across the board after PM announced 10pc super tax on industrials for one year to bridge the gap in the fiscal deficit," he said.

Meamwhile, Khurram Shehzad, CEO of Alpha Beta Core, said that after the government's latest measures, the corporate income tax and investor tax will now exceed 50pc and 55pc, respectively.

"This is the highest not only in this region, but in the history of Pakistan. In fact, it is one of the highest tax rates in the world," he pointed out.

Pakistan's foreign exchange reserves decrease by $748 mln

KARACHI (Dunya News) – The State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) foreign exchange reserves recorded a declination of $748 million on Thursday.

SBP’s foreign exchange reserves fall by $748 million to $8.2 billion, while the bank’s foreign exchange reserves reached their lowest level since October 25, 2019.

On the other hand, the country’s total foreign exchange reserves declined by $733 million and reached $14.2 billion.

Reserves of commercial banks fell by $15 million to $6 billion. Foreign exchange reserves declined due to repayment of foreign loans.

chetak wrote: What if the cheeni were to, oh so innocently, develop an "international" airport in the POK for "tourism" purposes and then like hambanthota port that they militarised, slowly start to base military aircraft and long range missiles there and a little later put in a S-400 system to protect that "international" airport for "tourism" from the threat of "terrorists".

This same S-400 system will likely cover the whole of pukestan, quite by a "happy coincidence" that no one (especially the cheeni + paki) had thought of.

is that too far fetched for you, the thought of the cheeni insisting on having a huge number of strike aircraft in hardened aircraft shelters in "their" air force base + an active and very sophisticated missile defence system positioned almost in the heart of India and that too on territory that is legitimately claimed by India

Thanks Chetak'ji. Do educate me in the strategic or some other thread on how Cheen will militarize PoK.

Of course with some facts and data (estimates okay). Like how much does it cost to build S400 system to protect the hardened shelters in Gilgit/Baltistan. You can take the Gilgit Airport as the base for all your systems.

disha wrote:

chetak wrote: What if the cheeni were to, oh so innocently, develop an "international" airport in the POK for "tourism" purposes and then like hambanthota port that they militarised, slowly start to base military aircraft and long range missiles there and a little later put in a S-400 system to protect that "international" airport for "tourism" from the threat of "terrorists".

This same S-400 system will likely cover the whole of pukestan, quite by a "happy coincidence" that no one (especially the cheeni + paki) had thought of.

is that too far fetched for you, the thought of the cheeni insisting on having a huge number of strike aircraft in hardened aircraft shelters in "their" air force base + an active and very sophisticated missile defence system positioned almost in the heart of India and that too on territory that is legitimately claimed by India

Thanks Chetak'ji. Do educate me in the strategic or some other thread on how Cheen will militarize PoK.

Of course with some facts and data (estimates okay). Like how much does it cost to build S400 system to protect the hardened shelters in Gilgit/Baltistan. You can take the Gilgit Airport as the base for all your systems.

one understands the angst.

no need to build any S-400 systems, the cheeni could just relocate one of the systems already ordered and also get the pakis to pay them for the security provided.

Indian war planes will be at much greater risk if attacks are to be pressed home under cover of the protective umbrella of the S-400.

what's to stop the cheeni from militarizing POK or even close by areas, if and when the cheeni get the chance, and what shall we do, complain to the UN or shall we appeal to the cheeni moral obligations.

If we attack, we will have to fight alone and take on the two of them in coordination.

one has economic strength far greater than our own and the other simply does not have any brains.

The jehadis inside are already prepared and this will not be like any war that we have fought so far. At least three print media is already cheering them and more will join in in the name of demanding peace from the war mongering, RSS controlled Hindutwa brigades.

time alone will tell what the future may hold and other options may open up for us but I will not hold my breath.

But one would seriously disabuse oneself of the construct that the cheeni would need anyone's permission to militarize a leased POK. They have already militarized gwadar, as well as, hambantotha. They may already have war stores and spares squirrelled away at both locations.

Look at what they did to the coco islands on lease to them from myanmar. It's barely a stone's throw away from A&N. Have we ever said anything about that neverwho fiasco and the "in your face results" of his shortsighted policies.

when did neverwho ever bother with such tiresome and banal issues. A lost tibet, aksai chin, huge landmass in ladakh and coco islands perturbed him not in the least. The only thing neverwho ever grappled with in his luxury filled life was probably the vicereine.

never ever did the mundane and stodgy matters of state overly disturb him.

So, let's just wait and see which way the winds blow.

https://www.dawn.com/news/1696473/pti-s ... he-economy
PTI slams govt, says super tax will 'rattle' the economy
June 24, 2022
PTI Secretary General Asad Umar on Friday excoriated the coalition government for imposing a "super tax" on large-scale industries, saying that the measure would "rattle the economy", increase unemployment and inflation, shoot up imports and push Pakistan further into economic crisis.
"This is a huge blow to the growing industries," he said at a press conference in Islamabad.
In an address to the nation today, Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif announced a 10 per cent levy on sectors including sugar, oil and gas, cement, steel, airlines, fertilisers, LNG terminals, textile, banking, automobile, cigarettes, beverages, and chemicals.
High-net-worth individuals will also be subject to a "poverty alleviation tax". Those whose annual income exceeds Rs150 million will be subject to 1pc tax; for Rs200 million, 2pc; Rs250 million, 3pc; and Rs300 million will be taxed 4pc of their income.
The new measures triggered a plunge at the Pakistan Stock Exchange (PSX) which crashed after the benchmark KSE-100 Index lost more than 2,000 points, or 4.8pc, in the morning session.
In his speech, PM Shehbaz had said the decision was taken to protect and support the poor segments from backbreaking inflation.
PTI, which was the largest party in the National Assembly before its members resigned en masse from the Lower House in April, disagreed with the premier's assessment, claiming that the measures would instead further burden the public in the form of higher prices.
......
Gautam

Not enough, more needed,

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GDXYzUlv0S8

P.S. delete as necessary.

Manish_P wrote:Despite all this have you seen the Income tax rates in Bakistan.

I used the IT calculator given by Dawn and was shocked on how low the rates were, especially when compared to india. And still this RR from the awaam...

A 1 lakh PKR montlhy salary has a monthly income tax of Rs 8.33 PKR

A-o-A took just about a couple of weeks and here we are

Yawn - BUDGET 2022-23: Govt eyes coffers of wealthy to appease IMF

At the same time, the Rs 47bn tax relief announced by the government in the next year’s budget for salaried citizens has also been reversed. The tax exemption limit has been reversed to Rs 600,000 from Rs 1.2 million, whereas the fixed tax of Rs 100 has been replaced with a 2.5 pc tax for individuals earning between Rs 600,000 and Rs 1.2 m.

Why for simple amount has now been changed to percentages hain? Sales of chinese calculators will now go up in al-bakistan.

Please track PKR/$ rate every week from now on. Its about PKR 215 /$ as of today.
Once it hits 250 it's exponential decay.

chetak wrote:

disha wrote:
Why sir? Will it not be a good idea for Bakistan to cede territories? Some to Cheen, some to Afghanistan and some to Iran for oil? Particularly for territory ceded to Cheen, it will help for Cheen to bring the Uighur model of re-development to POK. We can send some from Cashmere as well to help with re-development effort.

What if the cheeni were to, oh so innocently, develop an "international" airport in the POK for "tourism" purposes and then like hambanthota port that they militarised, slowly start to base military aircraft and long range missiles there and a little later put in a S-400 system to protect that "international" airport for "tourism" from the threat of "terrorists".

This same S-400 system will likely cover the whole of pukestan, quite by a "happy coincidence" that no one (especially the cheeni + paki) had thought of.

is that too far fetched for you, the thought of the cheeni insisting on having a huge number of strike aircraft in hardened aircraft shelters in "their" air force base + an active and very sophisticated missile defence system positioned almost in the heart of India and that too on territory that is legitimately claimed by India

And as far as ladakh is concerned, they have got you completely boxed in, your testicles in their vice.

This POK lease plan was always in the works, only our planners were/are, as usual, looking the wrong way, with b@!!le$$ Indian thinktankis hosting their mediocre and mundane kitty party "strategic seminars" and "security conferences" with senior defence management fully occupied and intent only on beating the idea of the CDS to death.

Sirji, we objected even construction of highway through PoK, how on earth we are going to let Pak build an airbase olin PoK?

ramana wrote:Please track PKR/$ rate every week from now on. Its about PKR 215 /$ as of today.
Once it hits 250 it's exponential decay.

Sirji, I track ups and downs in PKR, more than once a day.

I track it more than $ vs ₹.

As of today, it is not PKR 215/$, but it had been reduced to PKR 209.5/$.

If you ask me, it will go down, probably below 200 by Oct 2022.

That is because once IMF gives money to Pak, UAE and KSA will roll over their loans. Pak import in volume may go down, but not the import value in PKR, whatever the noise we hear, remittance will only increase. Exports may go down temporarily, but so does Pak bleeding money via subsidies. Once Pak is out of Grey list, exports will go up. All this will happen by Oct/Nov 2022.

Also with SS at helm, CPEC projects will complete faster giving temporary $$ relief/inflow into Pak...

Unless something unforseen happens and Pak stays in Grey List.

VishnuS wrote:

chetak wrote:
What if the cheeni were to, oh so innocently, develop an "international" airport in the POK for "tourism" purposes and then like hambanthota port that they militarised, slowly start to base military aircraft and long range missiles there and a little later put in a S-400 system to protect that "international" airport for "tourism" from the threat of "terrorists".

This same S-400 system will likely cover the whole of pukestan, quite by a "happy coincidence" that no one (especially the cheeni + paki) had thought of.

is that too far fetched for you, the thought of the cheeni insisting on having a huge number of strike aircraft in hardened aircraft shelters in "their" air force base + an active and very sophisticated missile defence system positioned almost in the heart of India and that too on territory that is legitimately claimed by India

And as far as ladakh is concerned, they have got you completely boxed in, your testicles in their vice.

This POK lease plan was always in the works, only our planners were/are, as usual, looking the wrong way, with b@!!le$$ Indian thinktankis hosting their mediocre and mundane kitty party "strategic seminars" and "security conferences" with senior defence management fully occupied and intent only on beating the idea of the CDS to death.

Sirji, we objected even construction of highway through PoK, how on earth we are going to let Pak build an airbase olin PoK?

our "objections" resulted in what exactly..... what did we achieve in tangible terms because that highway through PoK is a grim reality

The karakoram highway already connects china to Gilgit baltistan via the khunjerab pass.

They will build an airbase, we will, as part of the SOP, object, and they proceed to build the airbase anyway

the cheeni are rumoured to have paki advisers in their operation teams because of the paki "expertise" in dealing with the IA. There are embedded paki "experts" advising them, even in ladakh.